How Many Points for TFC in 2023?

[Initial B]

New year, new team (sort of) and time for a new set of prognostications. I'm vaguely confident that our defense will be better than it was last year, but I feel that it might take some time to gel and I expect us to drop a number of points in the first few weeks. I'm also really leery about our mediocre midfield and I expect there will be more points dropped here as we won't be able to effectively link the back to the front. The one place I'm not too concerned about is getting goals. the players we have can surely score, but they'll need the service, which I'm not sure they're going to get. Add any injuries and I expect the season to be hosed due to the lack of depth.

Here is the link to our guesses from last year:
http://forums.redpatchboys.ca/showthread.php?43360-How-Many-Points-for-TFC-in-2022

I think management's plan is to muddle along the first half of the year and try to be at least within striking distance of a playoff spot, then add mid-season replacements to shore-up the (by that time) proven weak spots and inevitable injury replacements in the roster with Champions/Championship League quality during the summer transfer window. They will then either go on a tear and end up with a home field playoff match (assuming MLS come to their senses and don't change the playoff format), or they will get the wrong pieces or fail to make their desired signings and panic buy, missing the playoffs. I'm of the opinion they will fall somewhere in the middle, probably somewhere on the playoff bubble.

This poll will be open for a month, then we'll be locked in to our forecasts for better or for worse. Have at it, people!

[Mr. Inbetween]

Last year I was waaay, way off. I am jaded. Learning to manage my expectations. Will go 45-49 Points: On the Playoff Bubble. If I am pleasantly wrong... great. If I am horribly right... fuck.

[jloome]

I'm going optimistic and saying we hit 60 points. We are front-loaded, with zero cap space and little room to maneovre. So we should expect they're challenging for the conference title, based on the spend and this being year three post Ali.

They've had three offseasons now and five transfer windows, with a budget only limited by league rules.

If we're not challenging that 60 point plateau, they've fucked the dog. Making the playoffs should be a minimal expectation at this point.

[Yuushalinsky]

I have pretty high expectations - again, I think before the Summer transfer window starts, I'm expecting 25-30 points which challenges for the lead. Overall, I'm seeing contention and a deep run in League Cup/a win in the Voyageur's Cup.

[ag futbol]

I’m as uncertain as ever as to how we’ll do this year. Really could be anything from MLS Cup to bust.

Going to predict 3rd-4th in the east 50ish points for the season. We have improved but unless everything we did hits the mark, it won’t be top of the table solid.

Stating the obvious but really important the new signings perform.

[Mr. Inbetween]

Begrudging recognition to last year's only two selectors... Free-kick and Graeme.

[Initial B]

If we're not challenging that 60 point plateau, they've fucked the dog. Making the playoffs should be a minimal expectation at this point.
I honestly don't think the FO cares if they're in first this year (should be different next year when they've fine-tuned the roster). I think the only think that matters to them is at least a home playoff game and the revenue it brings. As with all North American Major Leagues, the progress made towards the trophy at the end of the playoffs is what the season will be measured against.

[Richard]

Regular season is mostly irrelevant, get a good seed and go deep in the playoffs, that's what I care about.

52pts.

[OgtheDim]

Solid Playoff - no expectations beyond that.

[ensco]

Hard to do this with the imperfect idea we have of the cap situation, relative to other team's cap situation. So much turns on how the summer window fits into this.

I have never forgotten how last place Seattle bought Lodeiro in August and ran the table from there.

[Graeme]

Begrudging recognition to last year's only two selectors... Free-kick and Graeme.

I'm more optimistic this year--although I _did_ just watch that preseason game--hopefully it was just a feint to throw off the competition...

[Joe Kool]

I really wanted to pick a higher option....I really did. Playoff bubble team I went for. Hopefully I get proven wrong and we are comfortably in for a change.

[Bushmancan]

Full disclosure, have to be honest, not voting until after the DC game. I cannot figure out if we are good or not.

[Webdogg]

Well they will either be no doubt playoff home team or an epic failure. I’ll go with no doubt home playoff team with epic failure next year.
18W 9L 7T for 63 points with the Italian fellas both in the MVP conversation.

[jloome]

Full disclosure, have to be honest, not voting until after the DC game. I cannot figure out if we are good or not.

This is actually the most reasonable response.

The league is changing so much from year to year it's very tough to say.

Some huge players signed this year in terms of likely productivity; NYRB signed one of the best strikers in Belgium, a 1-in-2 guy called up to the national team despite not being at a bigger club; Charlotte signed one of the best young strikers in the Argentine league; Whitecaps got a bona-fide top keeper from the j-league. Multilple defenders with experience in the top leagues have joined multiple clubs.

It's a step up again. On paper, we have more first-team talent than anyone. Practically, with the absence of depth, the travel in the league, and all our best players being older, we might limp into the second half ... or win eight of the first 10.

Who knows, really.

[Joe Kool]

Who knows, really.

You could put this as the final option in the polls and it would win...but where is the fun in that. That is why this poll is just a toss the dart at the board and see if you were right in the end. Unless you own a certain Delorean and if you do let's have a chat about a certain sports almanac.

[Blindside16]

I think they will come in around 55-59 points. We should be comfortably in the playoffs come seasons end or heads need to roll

[jloome]

You could put this as the final option in the polls and it would win...but where is the fun in that. That is why this poll is just a toss the dart at the board and see if you were right in the end. Unless you own a certain Delorean and if you do let's have a chat about a certain sports almanac.

Yeah, that's why I picked 60 points plus. I mean, it's not likely, but with this lineup it IS possible.

My question now is whether with all that talent we gel. That's on Bob more than anyone. If we struggle, at all, he's not the guy. Not with this much talent.

If a team has top-third of the league talent but looks like it could lose any given game -- as in, we play like last year but have this year's roster -- their manager isn't going to last long, pedigree notwithstanding.

[Kamp Berg]

Yeah, that's why I picked 60 points plus. I mean, it's not likely, but with this lineup it IS possible.

My question now is whether with all that talent we gel. That's on Bob more than anyone. If we struggle, at all, he's not the guy. Not with this much talent.

If a team has top-third of the league talent but looks like it could lose any given game -- as in, we play like last year but have this year's roster -- their manager isn't going to last long, pedigree notwithstanding.

Absolutely. Team dynamics and injuries are the possible flies in the soup this year.

[portu]

Injuries and these signings hitting will be the determining factor in this team qualifying for the playoffs or not. Assuming all the signings work out, all it takes is a couple of injuries to the wrong players and this team will fall apart.

Have us on the bubble because injuries will happen.

[jloome]

Injuries and these signings hitting will be the determining factor in this team qualifying for the playoffs or not. Assuming all the signings work out, all it takes is a couple of injuries to the wrong players and this team will fall apart.

Have us on the bubble because injuries will happen.

Given his age and history, I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon Servania wound up first or second in most minutes played among the mids. Oso will typically miss 5-10 games per, Kaye has had recent issues, Michael is 35 (did iron man minutes last year, but realistically...)

The key is when people go out, how they mesh with what's left. If we lose Oso for three weeks but the other three are fine, maybe we tick on fine. Maybe by mid year, Ayo has some touch and movement back and he's scoring as a fill-in for Dio.

It could go WELL, is what I'm saying. I mean, I know that's anathema to our general history outside of one year but we did have that year, and we should've won the year before that too, but ran into the curse of King Stefan, probably our dumbest decision ever.

[Canary10]

Injuries and these signings hitting will be the determining factor in this team qualifying for the playoffs or not. Assuming all the signings work out, all it takes is a couple of injuries to the wrong players and this team will fall apart.

Have us on the bubble because injuries will happen.

Pretty much every team qualifies for the playoffs. If we don't it would be an epic disaster. Clean house time!

[portu]

Given his age and history, I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon Servania wound up first or second in most minutes played among the mids. Oso will typically miss 5-10 games per, Kaye has had recent issues, Michael is 35 (did iron man minutes last year, but realistically...)

The key is when people go out, how they mesh with what's left. If we lose Oso for three weeks but the other three are fine, maybe we tick on fine. Maybe by mid year, Ayo has some touch and movement back and he's scoring as a fill-in for Dio.

It could go WELL, is what I'm saying. I mean, I know that's anathema to our general history outside of one year but we did have that year, and we should've won the year before that too, but ran into the curse of King Stefan, probably our dumbest decision ever.
I’m just thinking what happens if you’ve got some combo of Oso/Berna/Insigne/Laryea/Petretta/MAK out at the same time? Running through it in my head this team just absolutely tanks in quality past Ayo/Servania/O’Neil/MacNaughton and there does not seem to be any back-up plan.

Two starters blow a tire on a serious level this season and we’re back to 2021/22 levels and be hearing from management “well if only we didn’t have injuries”.

Think we’re capable in midfield with one injury, and useless if it happens at fullback or with the DPs. Again assuming all the signings and midfield meshes.

It could go well, but for me that involves minimal injuries and all the signings working out.

[JoesphNdo]

Pretty much every team qualifies for the playoffs. If we don't it would be an epic disaster. Clean house time!

Yeah, with the new format, if we're even in the conversation for not making the play offs or coming in in one of the lowest places it's a sign that the project has failed and we need to clear house. Scraping in isn't even the minimum excuse, no injuries could excuse missing that in this format with our squad investment

Even as someone usually a bit more pessimistic, I just can't imagine a team like this struggling to make the play offs

[Bushmancan]

Playoff team. Only because 9 teams make it

[NK Toronto]

34 points

[Initial B]

Well, we're halfway through the season and on track to end up with 36 points. I still expect some reinforcements come the summer transfer window, but if there is no movement, I expect they'll underperform my expectations the rest of the way this year.

[spe18]

Well, we're halfway through the season and on track to end up with 36 points. I still expect some reinforcements come the summer transfer window, but if there is no movement, I expect they'll underperform my expectations the rest of the way this year.

And those 36 points won't be good enough for 9th place in the east, if last year's standings are of any indications.

Last year, you needed 42 points for 9th place (+ goal differential).

[Mr. Inbetween]

Well, we're halfway through the season and on track to end up with 36 points. I still expect some reinforcements come the summer transfer window, but if there is no movement, I expect they'll underperform my expectations the rest of the way this year.

If they do not at least acquire either a midfield conductor or a proven striker, then BB, BM and The MLSE Board, the lot of them, have lost the plot.

[spe18]

If they do not at least acquire either a midfield conductor or a proven striker, then BB, BM and The MLSE Board, the lot of them, have lost the plot.


Franky, I feel it's BM that already lost the plot a very long time ago......

[Auzzy]

Well, we're halfway through the season and on track to end up with 36 points. I still expect some reinforcements come the summer transfer window, but if there is no movement, I expect they'll underperform my expectations the rest of the way this year.

Wow, and if that pace holds up, only two respondents will have been somewhat accurate.

[Initial B]

We are now at the 3/4-point of the season and it would appear that we are on track to end up with 25 points. "Worst Team in the World" Tier.

Never, EVER, did I imagine a season as bad as this one turned out to be considering the roster we had at the start of the season.

[ElvistheEvilScotsman]

We are now at the 3/4-point of the season and it would appear that we are on track to end up with 25 points. "Worst Team in the World" Tier.

Never, EVER, did I imagine a season as bad as this one turned out to be considering the roster we had at the start of the season.

If Seba is being considered for a nostalgia lap this season so should Koevermans. He comes off the pitch to a press conference and he says “I thought I had played for the worst team in the world but this TFC squad is now the worst team in the world.” 🤣

[Ultra & Proud]

If Seba is being considered for a nostalgia lap this season so should Koevermans. He comes off the pitch to a press conference and he says “I thought I had played for the worst team in the world but this TFC squad is now the worst team in the world.” 藍
Name him an interim manager.

Just do a rotating match to match interim manager so we can squeeze the maximum allowance of nostalgia out of these last 9 matches. Get Seba out there for one, DeRo, Armando Cooper, whoever. What we have now is a failure so why not just sink into pure meme-ness until oblivion.

[ag futbol]

Name him an interim manager.

Just do a rotating match to match interim manager so we can squeeze the maximum allowance of nostalgia out of these last 9 matches. Get Seba out there for one, DeRo, Armando Cooper, whoever. What we have now is a failure so why not just sink into pure meme-ness until oblivion.
You know who should really be the interim manager? Vazquez

[Ultra & Proud]

You know who should really be the interim manager? Vazquez
He would definitely be better than Dunfield but for maximum chaos, failure, and TFCness it really should have been Michael Bradley.

[Canary10]

I want to offer my apologies to the MLS pundits who predicted us out of the playoffs at the start and who I thought were dead wrong. I think we're worse than even they imagined.

[Richard]

I want to offer my apologies to the MLS pundits who predicted us out of the playoffs at the start and who I thought were dead wrong. I think we're worse than even they imagined.

Lol. I want to know why the one person voted less than 25 pts, because that's where we're headed.

[Initial B]

The season, mercifully, is over.
34 games.
22 points.
Lowest club points ever.
Highest MLS payroll ever.
Manning can't, CAN'T, be here next year.
I have no other words, so I'll let Matt Doyle leave them for me.

It’s hard to imagine a more catastrophic season.
None of the high-upside youngsters developed. None of the imports impressed. Neither of the remaining club legends, Jonathan Osorio (https://www.mlssoccer.com/players/jonathan-osorio/) and Michael Bradley (https://www.mlssoccer.com/players/michael-bradley/), could do a damn thing to prevent this team from having what I think is the worst season in club history (apologies to the 2012 group, but relative to expectations, 2023 is worse).
American Soccer Analysis has the Reds dead last in the value of passes they received this year, and one of the worst teams in their database going back a decade. That matches the eye test.
There’s constantly been room to maneuver over the past few years and TFC, with Manning’s hand firmly on the wheel as per reporting from The Athletic (https://theathletic.com/4555769/2023/05/26/toronto-fc-insigne-bernardeschi-bradley-mls/), have gone wrong at every turn.

[Oldtimer]

I'm the one who put "39-44," then wondered if I was being too pessimistic since nearly everyone thought we'd do better.

Still I thought it would take at least a season to get significantly better because of melding time, despite the seemingly elite DP signings, so that's why I picked what I did.

Turns out I was wayyyy to optimistic at just missing the payoffs. Kudos to the one individual who picked 25 or less.

Turns out our team was horribly unbalanced and that both DPs were outscored by an Orlando kid that we could have signed cheap if we didn't trade our #3 pick.

[ensco]

1. Michael Bradley
2. Jozy Altidore
3. David Beckham
4. Carlos Vela
5. Lorenzo Insigne
6. Sebastien Giovinco

What is this list? (No cheating if you saw it in the Athletic)

[Oldtimer]

1. Michael Bradley
2. Jozy Altidore
3. David Beckham
4. Carlos Vela
5. Lorenzo Insigne
6. Sebastien Giovinco

What is this list? (No cheating if you saw it in the Athletic)

Oldest DPs/former DPs?

[OgtheDim]

1. Michael Bradley
2. Jozy Altidore
3. David Beckham
4. Carlos Vela
5. Lorenzo Insigne
6. Sebastien Giovinco

What is this list? (No cheating if you saw it in the Athletic)

Most amount of money ever spent on a DP over the life of their contract.

[ensco]

Most amount of money ever spent on a DP over the life of their contract.

Close.

MLS All-time Lifetime earnings leaderboard.

1. Michael Bradley 44.1M
2. Jozy Altidore 40.2M
3. David Beckham 36.5M
4. Carlos Vela 32.3M
5. Lorenzo Insigne 29.4M
6. Sebastien Giovinco 28.5M

We could spend a long time discussing this chart.

[JoesphNdo]

That is good context on our ownership. For all the criticism of MLSE as this entity holding us back, and I'm not fan of theirs, there literally isn't a single ownership group in all of MLS that would have spent the money they spent on us with so little in return. Not one. Any other owner would slash our budgets if we had one.

I worry we completely fucked up the once in a lifetime opportunity and will never get it again, though. Hopefully that part is wrong but I just can't imagine any rational argument they would have to continue spending money like they have done.