Let's be realistic now

[Oldtimer]

First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.

[ensco]

Nah you are mostly right. There are 9 clubs with between 29-34 points, playing for 3 spots.

But three of the nine have played one less game (Revs, Crew, Atlanta). Which makes it harder.

But it's not a total moonshot. It could happen. Because of the parity, win streaks are big. Any one of those teams who rips off 6 wins here will make it.

[Yohan]

We didn't get a commanding CB and our bench is still weak. I don't expect TFC to score 3-4 goals per every game.

Playoffs would be nice. But I don't expect it

[TFC/Everton]

Ah, I think we are going to finish 5th, but I am the eternal optimist of this forum.

Bob and Bill have done a hell of a job building a quality team.

[los sonadores]

First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.

Realism, for sure.

Reading your list, though, gave me hope. And in our favour is that we still haven’t seen much of Kaye with the other new signings. If he can get healthy, winning 6 of 9 remaining matches is quite possible. And while at least three of the teams we must pass are resurgent since the end of the transfer window, I think five of our nine are against teams currently tied with us or four points ahead. So in other words, six pointers.

[leedsandTFC]

First I'll acknowledge that it is possible, in fact our nemesis Seattle has done it multiple times; gone on an end of season tear and just make the playoffs, and end up in the finals or even winning the Cup. This could happen with TFC.

Realistically though, I don't see it. Maybe it's just TFC's less than illustrious years colouring my perspective, but let's look at the facts:

1) TFC would have to get nearly 2 points per match over the rest of the season. That's 2017 type numbers, and our team as a whole isn't that level of good.

2) TFC would need to have 5 teams do poorly to leapfrog them to the 7th spot.

3) No further injuries to our starters happens as depth is non-existent.

It did not have to be this hard. The kids could have not leaked so many goals or been better at scoring. Insigne could have arrived healthy instead of injured.

So while it's really fun enjoying see TFC doing well, and have great expectations for next season, I'm not seriously planning for post season play for 2022.

Is it excessive pessimism or solid realism? It would be great to see TFC beat the odds, it would be fantastic. I'm just not expecting it.

we're more than good enough to get 2 points a game for the rest of the season.

in the 4 games since the italians joined, we have 10 points, including 2 wins against playoff teams. and the team is improving week on week, with MAK to rejoin the fray.

we probably need 6 wins and a draw. win the home games and a couple away and we're in business.

[OgtheDim]

If it was 9 games with 1 a week, I'd say doable.

It's not.

The 3 game weeks are going to prove our undoing.

[jloome]

Nah you are mostly right. There are 9 clubs with between 29-34 points, playing for 3 spots.

But three of the nine have played one less game (Revs, Crew, Atlanta). Which makes it harder.

But it's not a total moonshot. It could happen. Because of the parity, win streaks are big. Any one of those teams who rips off 6 wins here will make it.

those are mostly the teams we're playing.

if we win seven or eight of the remaining games we'll probably make it. If this lineup stays healthy that's possible.

Insigne showed last night that if we're down or tied late, he'll park himself in the box and put the team on his back until we get one.

I think barring arrogance (ie getting so confident we switch off in the last few games), we'll make it.

also worth considering that these guys have been practising together for a grand total of three weeks.

[Gringo Starr]

I like our chances but God I hope Poz doesn’t kill us Saturday night

[jloome]

I like our chances but God I hope Poz doesn’t kill us Saturday night

We know exactly where he likes to operate, in the hole between the mids and defence, and where prefers to shoot from, the right side of the 'D'.

Be nice to think, given how predictable his game is, that we could counter it properly.

I think he'll have trouble playing against a three-man mid. He likes progressive, forward passing, and as good as he is at evading tackles, when he's picked up by two players his efficacy goes down quickly.

Having said that, he seems to be making a point at Miami. Still has to negotiate a new deal, I believe.

[jloome]

Realism, for sure.

Reading your list, though, gave me hope. And in our favour is that we still haven’t seen much of Kaye with the other new signings. If he can get healthy, winning 6 of 9 remaining matches is quite possible. And while at least three of the teams we must pass are resurgent since the end of the transfer window, I think five of our nine are against teams currently tied with us or four points ahead. So in other words, six pointers.

Seven of nine remaining, although two of those are Montreal and Philly, who we can't realistically catch.

Five of nine are effectively six-pointers, including TWO more games against Miami.

We also have a game against the Galaxy, who are fighting for a spot. Lots of drama; us verus Poz, us versus the team formerly known as TFC. Vasquez had a nice goal yesterday and they've added Riqui Puig.

Philly is a tough final game. It would help us if Leeds buys Kai Wagner.

[MikeForbes]

Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.

[jloome]

Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.

I'm not sure why it's unrealistic to think we can swing four out of 27 points.

if we beat New England on the weekends, we're likely a point out, with 24 at hand and a team that includes insigne, Criscito and Bernardeschi

Not easy but I think its realistic. Why not? Our main competition for that spot are Columbus, Cincy, Miami
and New England and their form has been all over the map this year.

[James17930]

It's a low chance, but it's going to make the rest of this season a hell of a ride!

[ag futbol]

Realistically we won't make it, but if we can get Oso back as a max TAM player, bring in a starting CB and sign a top quality DP striker (Josef Martinez, why not demand a trade?), this team could be a legit threat for both the MLS Cup and Leagues Cup.
Josef Martinez this year gives me fat Ronaldo vibes. He could still be highly effective but things around the edges sort of make you wonder…

[Ultra & Proud]

Josef Martinez this year gives me fat Ronaldo vibes. He could still be highly effective but things around the edges sort of make you wonder…

I think he's past it. Never came back from that last injury.

[Areathrasher]

I'm not thinking about playoffs. Just gonna take it one game at a time and enjoy the performances (if they continue to be like that last few games)

[OgtheDim]

A HARD no to Josef Martinez....he's not starter quality in Atlanta. I don't know if he's even TAM worthy anymore.

[stevep]

Ah, I think we are going to finish 5th, but I am the eternal optimist of this forum.

Bob and Bill have done a hell of a job building a quality team.
cant remember for sure but last night i checked the outright odds on bet365
i believe bet365 has us coming in 6th place in the east
so close to new england and orlando for 6th and 7th

[Blindside16]

I would love to see them go on a run and make it. If we do managed to make it there is not a single team that won't be terrified of facing us in a 1 and done. The realist in me thinks that the hole is too big and we will fall just short. If they can turn in the same effort and quality every game like they did Saturday night vs Portland, playoffs or no I will be content.

[Gringo Starr]

We know exactly where he likes to operate, in the hole between the mids and defence, and where prefers to shoot from, the right side of the 'D'.

Be nice to think, given how predictable his game is, that we could counter it properly.

I think he'll have trouble playing against a three-man mid. He likes progressive, forward passing, and as good as he is at evading tackles, when he's picked up by two players his efficacy goes down quickly.

Having said that, he seems to be making a point at Miami. Still has to negotiate a new deal, I believe.

Big game player who will be looking to make a point who will know how to pick apart our D though. Hopefully Kaye will be back.

I'm still on team we make it though. no team 11-5 look as good as we do on paper. Columbus at 5, on 34 with a game in hand is a big ask but 6 or 7 are there for the taking. I will be disappointed if we can't swing a 4 point gap in 9 games.

After a couple of crap seasons and a youth experiment I'm drinking the Kool aid, see you all in the first round, after wednesday we are only 1 back.

[noxx98]

Whatever happens lets enjoy the ride. It's been fun lately.

[portu]

I think it’s possible and will hold out hope.

This would have been way more possible if we had signed guys even a few games earlier.

Right now I’m watching how guys in certain positions perform.

MacNaughton I’m really hoping shows an excellent extended run of form through the end. If he does, we may have a genuine starter on our hands.

I’m hoping that Jimenez/Akinola can demonstrate they don’t need to replaced by a DP. If they don’t start scoring I think the FO makes that kind of move and it screws with cohesion next year.

Can you imagine 3 DPs up top and one doesn’t mesh? Disaster.

On the other hand, it’s time for changing of guard with Mavinga/Bono/Westberg and as much as I enjoy seeing them in-form, I know it won’t last long term based on history.

[ronzilla]

Making the playoffs is not as far fetched as some people believe.

4 points out.

27 points available.

[ag futbol]

On the other hand, it’s time for changing of guard with Mavinga/Bono/Westberg and as much as I enjoy seeing them in-form, I know it won’t last long term based on history.
We might *marginally* be able to get one more season out of Mavinga as a starter. But I wouldn’t disagree if we went our separate ways this off-season.

The GK thing is a top priority though. I would argue striker is too if things continue on their current form.

[ensco]

I think these next two games will determine it.

Full points - we are going to do it

4 points - we are maybe going to do it

Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.

[jloome]

I think these next two games will determine it.

Full points - we are going to do it

4 points - we are maybe going to do it

Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.

Beat New England and Miami and we're on 35, which could be enough for seventh if three or four other results go our way.

Very optimistic, I know, but it would put us in the pole with seven games left.

[Mr. Inbetween]

A HARD no to Josef Martinez....he's not starter quality in Atlanta. I don't know if he's even TAM worthy anymore.

Gonna have to disagree with you on this...
A HARD... WELL... MAYBE! An if, and, or but situation.
Particularly, depending how the Osorio circumstance may need to be addressed.
Josef Martinez would be an interesting candidate; particularly at MAX TAM. Mos def a reclamation project like Laryea.
Especially if both Jimenez and Akinola are unable to perform regularly.
And only if this is somehow achievable in a trade this winter off-season, given, IIUC, he has one year left on his contract with ATL at 4.15M?
Martinez = Belotti? Lite? Similar experience, SerieA/Torino. Both have been injured. Relatively comparable performances?
Just have been unable to get any read on any contract leaning by Jonathan during any game play or post - media interactions.
Darn ensco, son of a gun, has tainted my thinking and position on Osorio; second thoughts and pause.
My position is changing to one that TFC must re-sign him; maybe at all cost.
Preferably with a MAX TAM deal; even with a sustainable, year over year GAM buy down?
If achievable? Given my lack of understanding of MLS financial rules and regulations.
Otherwise as an actual DP; as last resort.
Osorio has to remain a Red; and eventually be the future Team Captain.
A proven quantity representing much more to the team, supporters and local football.

[jloome]

Gonna have to disagree with you on this...
A HARD... WELL... MAYBE! An if, and, or but situation.
Particularly, depending how the Osorio circumstance may need to be addressed.
Josef Martinez would be an interesting candidate; particularly at MAX TAM. Mos def a reclamation project like Laryea.
Especially if both Jimenez and Akinola are unable to perform regularly.
And only if this is somehow achievable in a trade this winter off-season, given, IIUC, he has one year left on his contract with ATL at 4.15M?
Martinez = Belotti? Lite? Similar experience, SerieA/Torino. Both have been injured. Relatively comparable performances?
Just have been unable to get any read on any contract leaning by Jonathan during any game play or post - media interactions.
Darn ensco, son of a gun, has tainted my thinking and position on Osorio; second thoughts and pause.
My position is changing to one that TFC must re-sign him; maybe at all cost.
Preferably with a MAX TAM deal; even with a sustainable, year over year GAM buy down?
If achievable? Given my lack of understanding of MLS financial rules and regulations.
Otherwise as an actual DP; as last resort.
Osorio has to remain a Red; and eventually be the future Team Captain.
A proven quantity representing much more to the team, supporters and local football.

A hard, hard no.

He's taken on a "bigger than the club" persona. Absolute locker room trouble right now AND he's lost his speed which was a big part of his danger.

He's coming off the bench in Atlanta for a reason.

[Mr. Inbetween]

A hard, hard no.

He's taken on a "bigger than the club" persona. Absolute locker room trouble right now AND he's lost his speed which was a big part of his danger.

He's coming off the bench in Atlanta for a reason.

Oh IDK?
Sounds frustrated and committed like MBradley was?
Maybe just not as reserved or careful in expressing his thoughts as Michael?

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/josef-martinez-calls-out-atlanta-united-players-front-office

[los sonadores]

I think these next two games will determine it.

Full points - we are going to do it

4 points - we are maybe going to do it

Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.

Yeah, I agree. If Kaye is back - at latest right after the next two matches - and no more injuries to any of the eleven.
With the exception of the four central defenders. Mavinga gives us something we need and the others don’t offer but we could get by with any three of the four until the regular season’s end.

[OgtheDim]

He's extremly slow & unable to keep up - this isn't motivation - Martinez wouldn't be the first player to be unable to come back from an ACL tear.

[ag futbol]

A hard, hard no.

He's taken on a "bigger than the club" persona. Absolute locker room trouble right now AND he's lost his speed which was a big part of his danger.

He's coming off the bench in Atlanta for a reason.
Yeah, we’re in a position of having the budget to spend money on sure things. Why put dollars down on a dicey consideration like Martinez?

[Oldtimer]

The thing that's making me enjoy this stretch (even though we realistically won't make it) is not just that we've added some really good players, but the players who looked somewhat washed up are playing really good football again.

It really is true that a great player makes the whole team better.

[James17930]

The thing that's making me enjoy this stretch (even though we realistically won't make it) is not just that we've added some really good players, but the players who looked somewhat washed up are playing really good football again.

It really is true that a great player makes the whole team better.

It's because they start to feel a sense of purpose again. There's no more ennui - everyone believes in the team's prospects again and they're going all out.

[Mr. Inbetween]

It's because they start to feel a sense of purpose again. There's no more ennui - everyone believes in the team's prospects again and they're going all out.

Winning games... convincingly... changes everything.
It's addictive.
Sustenance. Affirming. Renewed life.
Like water to a thirsty man lost in the desert.

[Kamp Berg]

Sam Jones was speculating in the latest MLS Power Rankings that TFC could probably make the playoffs if the pick up 16 points in the last 9 games. That’s 5 wins and one tie, definitely sounds doable right now. Nelson has really benefitted from moving to CM, but MAK returning should turn it up another notch.

[leedsandTFC]

Sam Jones was speculating in the latest MLS Power Rankings that TFC could probably make the playoffs if the pick up 16 points in the last 9 games. That’s 5 wins and one tie, definitely sounds doable right now. Nelson has really benefitted from moving to CM, but MAK returning should turn it up another notch.

likely will make it with 5 wins, 538 has the last playoff spot being less than that.

4 home wins and 1 away very doable.

[leedsandTFC]

The thing that's making me enjoy this stretch (even though we realistically won't make it) is not just that we've added some really good players, but the players who looked somewhat washed up are playing really good football again.

It really is true that a great player makes the whole team better.

is it unrealistic that the team that has picked up 10 points in 4 games won't pick up 16 points in 9 games?

[OgtheDim]

is it unrealistic that the team that has picked up 10 points in 4 games won't pick up 16 points in 9 games?


We have 6 games in 21 days starting with last Saturday - that is very tough.

[Ultra & Proud]

We have 6 games in 21 days starting with last Saturday - that is very tough.
Tough but after that 21 days they get to rest for a few months...or they don't.

Either way a 21 day slog to make the playoffs or go home has a different feel than doing similar in like June. Plus the weather will be kinder.

On the other hand our fitness and physio team is ...questionable.

[leedsandTFC]

We have 6 games in 21 days starting with last Saturday - that is very tough.

Also 6 games I'm 27 days given 6 days of rest before Saturday.

And we have 2 sets of home games close together which is nice.

I'm just saying it's not as unrealistic as people are making out, especially with how well we're playing even without MAK.

[jloome]

Also 6 games I'm 27 days given 6 days of rest before Saturday.

And we have 2 sets of home games close together which is nice.

I'm just saying it's not as unrealistic as people are making out, especially with how well we're playing even without MAK.

Apparently bet365 or one of those sites has us at 13% probability but it’s probably a stat-heavy analysis ignoring the recent changes and ensuing form.

MLSsoccer dude picks us to make it with New England (and they assume Columbus’ form makes them a shoo-in).

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/who-the-analytics-like-in-the-eastern-conference-playoff-race

[Oldtimer]

likely will make it with 5 wins, 538 has the last playoff spot being less than that.

4 home wins and 1 away very doable.

538 shows the odds of TFC being in the playoffs at 13%. Maybe historical bias, but still that's quite low.


is it unrealistic that the team that has picked up 10 points in 4 games won't pick up 16 points in 9 games?

We have very little depth. We're one significant injury away from it all going south.

[Section 223]

538 shows the odds of TFC being in the playoffs at 13%. Maybe historical bias, but still that's quite low.



We have very little depth. We're one significant injury away from it all going south.
It’s too bad we didn’t take the first half of the season seriously, oh well Thank you Bob

[Ultra & Proud]

It’s too bad we didn’t take the first half of the season seriously, oh well Thank you Bob
Must've been tough waiting for a moment to shoot in some Bradley negativity in the midst of this current winning streak.

[Initial B]

Well, if there's any reason to hope, at least MLS analytics thinks we have a chance.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/who-the-analytics-like-in-the-eastern-conference-playoff-race

[Section 223]

Must've been tough waiting for a moment to shoot in some Bradley negativity in the midst of this current winning streak.
When the plan is to bring in two DPs on crazy money the least you can do is try to put your team in a playoff position

[Redpunkfiddle]

When the plan is to bring in two DPs on crazy money the least you can do is try to put your team in a playoff position

Ohh right! He forgot to try. How silly of him. Glad you caught that.

[Section 223]

Ohh right! He forgot to try. How silly of him. Glad you caught that.
I recall a game in early May when Bob started Chung, Thompson, Priso, Nelson, and Petrasso. Is that trying?or throwing away points?

[leedsandTFC]

538 shows the odds of TFC being in the playoffs at 13%. Maybe historical bias, but still that's quite low.



We have very little depth. We're one significant injury away from it all going south.

538 will be taking into account our entire season, so yeah, if we were starting kerr petrasso and thompson every week i'd put our chances at 13% too.

in reality, the bigger shock would be that this team didn't win at least 5 of it's remaining 9 games.

the ways we get kept out are:

1. injury to insigne or berna where they miss multiple games

2. 2 teams currently ahead of us go on insane streaks

[Bushmancan]

If we win the next two games, I bet they go get one more veteran for depth. As everyone knows, these two games are critical to the run. Both teams ahead of us and catchable.

[leedsandTFC]

When the plan is to bring in two DPs on crazy money the least you can do is try to put your team in a playoff position

sorry, i think we all agree that the giant rebuild is something we needed, what other players could we have used in the first half of the year that would have made us better?

in the long run, the half a season of bad to mediocre performances will be more than worth it with the next few years we have infront of us of incredibly good, attacking football and results.

[James17930]

538 shows the odds of TFC being in the playoffs at 13%. Maybe historical bias, but still that's quite low.



We have very little depth. We're one significant injury away from it all going south.

This is the thing. If everyone can stay healthy, it's possible. That will probably mean only having the Italians play 65-ish minutes per game. We're going to have to get leads and then have the kids come on to protect them.

That being said, LI did have about 2 months of not playing and recovering from his injury, and FB wasn't playing much at Juve, if I understand it (?)

So maybe they're more rested than we think.

[noxx98]

This is the thing. If everyone can stay healthy, it's possible. That will probably mean only having the Italians play 65-ish minutes per game. We're going to have to get leads and then have the kids come on to protect them.

That being said, LI did have about 2 months of not playing and recovering from his injury, and FB wasn't playing much at Juve, if I understand it (?)

So maybe they're more rested than we think.
FB played about 2000 minutes for Juve last season. If either LI or FB were in Europe they'd be starting their season this past weekend or the one before that and would have been playing preseason games for a few weeks. Their time off was really only shortened by a few weeks. In comparison, JJ has basically gone non stop without anytime off.

[leedsandTFC]

FB played about 2000 minutes for Juve last season. If either LI or FB were in Europe they'd be starting their season this past weekend or the one before that and would have been playing preseason games for a few weeks. Their time off was really only shortened by a few weeks. In comparison, JJ has basically gone non stop without anytime off.

it's true, i'd like to see ayo given a run of starts.

we've looked more dangerous recently when ayo has come on, his running in behind is really effective and jesus seems gassed

[Blindside16]

I recall a game in early May when Bob started Chung, Thompson, Priso, Nelson, and Petrasso. Is that trying?or throwing away points?


Good memory, that was the Cincinnati game. I'm sure your memory will also remember that our bench for that game was Akinola, Peruzza, Kerr, Franklin, Antonoglou, Yeates, and Rothrock. So with all that information could you give us your expertise on who should have started instead to give us a win that game?

[portu]

Two wins this week against two teams we’re chasing would basically reset the whole season.

This week is an opportunity to bring things within our control and erase the first half of the season +/- 1 point.

[stevep]

For what it’s worth Bet365 seriously diagrees with you
https://www.on.bet365.ca/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E70542013/F2!/AS/B1/

[jloome]

For what it’s worth Bet365 seriously diagrees with you
https://www.on.bet365.ca/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E70542013/F2!/AS/B1/

At this point it seems most of the online handicappers are improving our odds. I just read a New England fan page that was praising them for not being scored on all month, playing the best football New England has played in a while etc etc… and then he picked us to win 2-0 tonight.

[stevep]

At this point it seems most of the online handicappers are improving our odds. I just read a New England fan page that was praising them for not being scored on all month, playing the best football New England has played in a while etc etc… and then he picked us to win 2-0 tonight.
Pinnacle has us at 1.88 to win tonight
To be considered an elite team the odds should be around 1.50 or so
but like I said the oddsmaker doing tfc games hasn’t got a clue he has been way off since the Italians arrived
or maybe 1.88 still because Nelson is starting
if kaye starts that number would be lower

[Section 223]

Good memory, that was the Cincinnati game. I'm sure your memory will also remember that our bench for that game was Akinola, Peruzza, Kerr, Franklin, Antonoglou, Yeates, and Rothrock. So with all that information could you give us your expertise on who should have started instead to give us a win that game?
BINGO Bob left the cupboards empty, just a roster full of kids and first half season was spent on teaching the kids but this is not a kids team, Does Bob with almost 40 years in coaching not have the smarts to know that these kids were never ready for MLS, I see half this youngsters out of soccer in a couple of years. You do not need much of a roster to get yourself in a playoff spot, but Bob managed to accomplish the impossible with his poor management.

[Ultra & Proud]

BINGO Bob left the cupboards empty, just a roster full of kids and first half season was spent on teaching the kids but this is not a kids team, Does Bob with almost 40 years in coaching not have the smarts to know that these kids were never ready for MLS, I see half this youngsters out of soccer in a couple of years. You do not need much of a roster to get yourself in a playoff spot, but Bob managed to accomplish the impossible with his poor management.

You're right, he should have signed all the players required who were available in January/February to either 6 month or 1 year deals even though MLS usually requires a minimum of 1+1 and then fired them aside as needed because that's how the real, non-EA Sports football world works.

[noxx98]

BINGO Bob left the cupboards empty, just a roster full of kids and first half season was spent on teaching the kids but this is not a kids team, Does Bob with almost 40 years in coaching not have the smarts to know that these kids were never ready for MLS, I see half this youngsters out of soccer in a couple of years. You do not need much of a roster to get yourself in a playoff spot, but Bob managed to accomplish the impossible with his poor management.
I mean this genuinely - who do you think we should have signed instead? Maybe we could have pushed to have the Kaye trade or Richie loan happen earlier, but the team needed to keep some powder dry for Criscito/Berna moves which limited other options. I think the team was also hoping for a bit more from Salcedo over the course of the season. We could have gone out and found a few more Shane O'Neill types, but there weren't many players on his level that were free agents and O'Neill required a 3 year deal at $350k/season. Signing four players like that eats up a lot of cap space.

Additionally, over the first 7 games of the season we were 3-2-2. In those games Oso and Poz each averaged 85 minutes per game. In the next 8 games we went 1-1-6 where they averaged 44 minutes per game. If Oso and Poz don't get injured we likely pick up a few more points from those games and are in a playoff position. In this league if a team loses its top two midfielders to injury, fourth best mid (Priso) battles injuries + a red card in the 6th minute, and fifth best mid (Okello) is injured the whole year, you're going to struggle a lot. It's impossible for teams to have the depth to overcome that.


EDIT: After our 7 games we were tied with 7th place (behond on GD). After 15 games (when Oso/Pos were out) we were 12th.

[Yuushalinsky]

armchairs are comfortable but they're not great for when you need a backbone for your argument

you can't just say all these things without actually providing a plan.

[Oldtimer]

Pinnacle has us at 1.88 to win tonight
To be considered an elite team the odds should be around 1.50 or so
but like I said the oddsmaker doing tfc games hasn’t got a clue he has been way off since the Italians arrived
or maybe 1.88 still because Nelson is starting
if kaye starts that number would be lower

1.88 was clearly because Bono was playing. You need a solid keeper to be an elite team. Let's be realistic, we're a few pieces plus some depth away from being elite.

[los sonadores]

1.88 was clearly because Bono was playing. You need a solid keeper to be an elite team. Let's be realistic, we're a few pieces plus some depth away from being elite.

Yeah, a solid keeper, a reliable striker and some pretty serious depth.

None of that is easy to come by but it’d be a shame if we don’t find that next year. I think our centre-half situation is okay - yes, could be improved but the previous three needs are greater.

[ag futbol]

You're right, he should have signed all the players required who were available in January/February to either 6 month or 1 year deals even though MLS usually requires a minimum of 1+1 and then fired them aside as needed because that's how the real, non-EA Sports football world works.
Well, exactly.

“Fix the roster in entirety right now”

Six months later…

“These players suck, management doesn’t know what they’re doing”

Count me as glad they haven’t loaded up on panic signings.

[stevep]

https://www.on.bet365.ca/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E70542013/F2!/AS/B1/

with last nights draw we have moved up to finishing 4th in the east

[stevep]

1.88 was clearly because Bono was playing. You need a solid keeper to be an elite team. Let's be realistic, we're a few pieces plus some depth away from being elite.
Actually a lot of money was bet on Toronto during the day of the game
it was an easy bet to bet Toronto to win
https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/usa/mls/toronto-fc-new-england-revolution-AZPmrfX5/

odds dropped all the way down to 1.74
easy money for a lot of people but then Bono let’s in two goals that has about a 3% probability of going in
ane Insigne plays the worst game possible
https://www.google.com/search?q=expected+goals&newwindow=1&rlz=1CDGOYI_enCA876CA876&hl=en-US&prmd=niv&sxsrf=ALiCzsYvfKbqRyj1ibZJF4O11xrZ9hjrdA:166085612 3987&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwih5quao9H5AhXCjokEHSDBCRMQ_AUoAnoECAIQA g&biw=414&bih=712&dpr=2#imgrc=jrTQkixGoG3TDM

[OgtheDim]

I think these next two games will determine it.

Full points - we are going to do it

4 points - we are maybe going to do it

Anything else - we are not going to get there, too many teams to catch with only 7 games left.



Yup.....

[Amir.]

Team is awful on the road with only 1 road win all season...how were ppl expecting us to get 3-4 wins on the road on top of the home wins needed? lol

[CorrwgBach]

Team is awful on the road with only 1 road win all season...how were ppl expecting us to get 3-4 wins on the road on top of the home wins needed? lol

Don't think I was expecting but hoping.

[Joe Kool]

Look at this way....we have an extended preseason for 2023 MLS season and it already started. I think everyone had hope this season. It will still be entertaining but easier on us if we don't expect anything then we are not disappointed. But some of the holes left are still glaring issues and we can't win every game by getting 3+ goals to overcome them. We need a way to grind out those 1-0 wins too. We really have nothing dangerous off the bench to worry any teams right now once our starting 11 gets tired.

[Ultra & Proud]

Realistically since the season is done and we're trying people out, why not let Peruzza have a run up top and Ranjitsingh get a start in goal.

[Section 223]

Realistically since the season is done and we're trying people out, why not let Peruzza have a run up top and Ranjitsingh get a start in goal.
And sit Mike Bradley down

[Ultra & Proud]

And sit Mike Bradley down
There's nobody to try out in his spot. Who would you put there? Nelson? Kosi?

[Oldtimer]

Realistically since the season is done and we're trying people out, why not let Peruzza have a run up top and Ranjitsingh get a start in goal.

That would be a great idea IMO. But maybe MLSE wants the illusion that this season can be saved to sell tickets so would prefer to trot out the usual bunch despite the fact that realistically they were never going to make it.

[ManUtd4ever]

It was a long shot to make the playoffs to begin with, but Bono has all but made it impossible at this point.

A reliable starting goalkeeper has to be the number one priority this off season.

[Ultra & Proud]

It was a long shot to make the playoffs to begin with, but Bono has all but made it impossible at this point.

A reliable starting goalkeeper has to be the number one priority this off season.
To go with this, barring trades of GKs that never happened, why even sign Ranjitsingh if he can't even get a look after the displays Bono has laid out over the past week? Anywhere else and that would equal a benching at least for a match. I get Westberg is out but if Ranjitsingh is so lowly viewed that he can't even start a match then we should have just called up Gavran on a hardship if any GKs went down.

[Section 223]

There's nobody to try out in his spot. Who would you put there? Nelson? Kosi?
If your asking me , then either of the two mentioned is fine with me, its too bad that we hired a coach that is blatantly showing his nepotism, he managed to have substitutes at every position this year but no cover for a 35 year old central midfielder which on most teams is the player that covers the most ground in a match.

[ensco]

We lost this season in May and June, I can think of 5 games against bad teams where we dropped points.

The FO... pick one ["believed" that the kids might be good enough, if you are charitable] ["screwed up", if you are mad]. They hoped to eke out some results while waiting for the cavalry to show up, and it didn't happen.

[Ultra & Proud]

If your asking me , then either of the two mentioned is fine with me, its too bad that we hired a coach that is blatantly showing his nepotism, he managed to have substitutes at every position this year but no cover for a 35 year old central midfielder which on most teams is the player that covers the most ground in a match.
I agree that he should take some rest since he will be back next season but currently, he looks fresher at 90 than some of the younger guys.

I don't think Kosi or Nelson can be responsible enough to play Bradley's spot. Maybe MAK but that kind of wastes what he brings. We should definitely be looking for the next midfielder for that spot this off season.

[ag futbol]

To go with this, barring trades of GKs that never happened, why even sign Ranjitsingh if he can't even get a look after the displays Bono has laid out over the past week? Anywhere else and that would equal a benching at least for a match. I get Westberg is out but if Ranjitsingh is so lowly viewed that he can't even start a match then we should have just called up Gavran on a hardship if any GKs went down.
To me this speaks to the nature of some of our secondary signings. None were a sure thing, some things worked, others didn’t.

MacNaughton has been a good gamble.
Chung and Ranjitsingh entirely underwhelming

[Oldtimer]

Just looked up Bono's salary and just about choked. USD $557K. His market value according to transfermarkt has declined by 2/3 since 2019 btw.

[Ultra & Proud]

Just looked up Bono's salary and just about choked. USD $557K. His market value according to transfermarkt has declined by 2/3 since 2019 btw.

You should be able to get an average GK starter and his back up for that money.

[jloome]

You should be able to get an average GK starter and his back up for that money.

Former Houston prospect Kyle Morton appears to be hitting his best form in USLC, with 10 shutouts in 19 games so far this season. He’s 28 and stopping everything in sight. I imagine he’d cost us less than Bono’s salary for a year and he wouldn’t let in that howler from the other night.

[portu]

Realistically since the season is done and we're trying people out, why not let Peruzza have a run up top and Ranjitsingh get a start in goal.
Rest of the season needs to be playing the best side possible to see how the pieces fit. There’s also the matter of personal and club pride here after such a dismal display for the majority of the season.

[James17930]

I really wonder what's going on with Peruzza. Is it still the attitude thing? Has he not learned yet? Is he still being punished for that one moment of petulance two years ago or whenever it was?

[ag futbol]

Rest of the season needs to be playing the best side possible to see how the pieces fit. There’s also the matter of personal and club pride here after such a dismal display for the majority of the season.
I’d look at some of the TFC2 players. They’ve turned their season around. And realistically, some of these guys we’ve signed to the first team have to realize if they don’t keep their foot on the gas the next player will step up and take their place.

[Ultra & Proud]

I really wonder what's going on with Peruzza. Is it still the attitude thing? Has he not learned yet? Is he still being punished for that one moment of petulance two years ago or whenever it was?
I don't think that moment is defining his status now. Like most of the young guys that come from our academy he probably just isn't as good as we think/hope he is.

[Joe Kool]

I don't think that moment is defining his status now. Like most of the young guys that come from our academy he probably just isn't as good as we think/hope he is.

We have definitely had a bunch of players, academy or other signings, that just didn't live up to the hopes and expectations at the time they were signed. I believe Peruzza is one of those like you said. Coaches see these players in training all week. Have to trust their judgement since that is their jobs to figure out who is ready to play.

[ensco]

More than anything, it just bugs me that the TFC CMNT players will be sitting around for 6 weeks.

95%+ of the players in Qatar will have played competitive league games within 14 days of their first game.

I wonder if there is a loan option for them somehow. I seriously doubt it.

[Ultra & Proud]

More than anything, it just bugs me that the TFC CMNT players will be sitting around for 6 weeks.

95%+ of the players in Qatar will have played competitive league games within 14 days of their first game.

I wonder if there is a loan option for them somehow. I seriously doubt it.
I don't think that can happen. Would be nice if our FO or the CMNT brass could arrange them to at least go train with some EPL or Championship clubs for the 6 weeks.

[jloome]

More than anything, it just bugs me that the TFC CMNT players will be sitting around for 6 weeks.

95%+ of the players in Qatar will have played competitive league games within 14 days of their first game.

I wonder if there is a loan option for them somehow. I seriously doubt it.

Good time for a couple for overseas friendlies. Spread the club's identity to other markets.
Do a joint tour ala the EPL teams but with the Galaxy and NYFC. Play some club teams in Australia and Japan.

[Ultra & Proud]

Good time for a couple for overseas friendlies. Spread the club's identity to other markets.
Do a joint tour ala the EPL teams but with the Galaxy and NYFC. Play some club teams in Australia and Japan.

Maybe some Serie A or B friendlies?

[Kamp Berg]

Just saw a Michael Singh video short where he was asked about Bono and whether Ranjitsingh should be given a shot as keeper. He responded saying Ranjitsingh was nowhere near as good as Bono in training.

[Ultra & Proud]

Just saw a Michael Singh video short where he was asked about Bono and whether Ranjitsingh should be given a shot as keeper. He responded saying Ranjitsingh was nowhere near as good as Bono in training.

Bono probably trains great when there's no pressure.

And if Ranjitsingh is *that* bad then why did we even bother signing him?

[Joe Kool]

Just saw a Michael Singh video short where he was asked about Bono and whether Ranjitsingh should be given a shot as keeper. He responded saying Ranjitsingh was nowhere near as good as Bono in training.

Wow....only the one word reaction needed to that.

[MikeForbes]

Just saw a Michael Singh video short where he was asked about Bono and whether Ranjitsingh should be given a shot as keeper. He responded saying Ranjitsingh was nowhere near as good as Bono in training.

Our media has an undying love for Alex Bono because he by all accounts is a good guy. No matter the circumstances guys like Singh, Buffery, Molinaro and Davidson will blame everyone but Bono for these goals and don't seem to want to ask BB about it.

[ensco]

Good time for a couple for overseas friendlies. Spread the club's identity to other markets.
Do a joint tour ala the EPL teams but with the Galaxy and NYFC. Play some club teams in Australia and Japan.

Not sure the economics work though, does anyone overseas want to see these teams? I suppose Insigne and Fede are draws....

[MikeForbes]

Not sure the economics work though, does anyone overseas want to see these teams? I suppose Insigne and Fede are draws....

Gotta think a friendly with Napoli could draw some interest. Otherwise, it would just be some Serie B teams like Genoa (MLSE could purchase one of these teams to use as a developmental area for peanuts) or second or third division Spanish teams.

[Section 223]

Just saw a Michael Singh video short where he was asked about Bono and whether Ranjitsingh should be given a shot as keeper. He responded saying Ranjitsingh was nowhere near as good as Bono in training.
Good on Michael Singh , he sees what every professional team out there sees , which is that Ranjitsingh is not a Capable keeper in this league , only signed by Bradley as insurance in case Bono and Westberg go down with injuries

[Section 223]

Our media has an undying love for Alex Bono because he by all accounts is a good guy. No matter the circumstances guys like Singh, Buffery, Molinaro and Davidson will blame everyone but Bono for these goals and don't seem to want to ask BB about it.
Asking Bradley about Bono is pretty much a pointless exercise don’t you think? Bono was Bradley’s keeper from day one this season, Bradley won’t be throwing Bono under the bus, season will end and Bono will begin a new career, I see him on television as a soccer analyst, good looking intelligent guy, just overrated by TFC management .

[Kamp Berg]

Bono probably trains great when there's no pressure.

And if Ranjitsingh is *that* bad then why did we even bother signing him?

Not sure, but Singh also said that Bono was done here and everyone knew it. That he probably wouldn’t be back in any capacity.

[Kamp Berg]

Our media has an undying love for Alex Bono because he by all accounts is a good guy. No matter the circumstances guys like Singh, Buffery, Molinaro and Davidson will blame everyone but Bono for these goals and don't seem to want to ask BB about it.

Singh said he was a great guy but had to go in order for the team to meet it’s potential.

[OgtheDim]

Guys who know they are not staying work their butts off to get a contract somewhere else.

Bono is working hard in training - he's just not all that good.

He is a pro and doesn't want to let down his teammates.

And he also knows each gaff costs him. That one last week likely cost him any hope of an MLS starter offer.

[MikeForbes]

Asking Bradley about Bono is pretty much a pointless exercise don’t you think? Bono was Bradley’s keeper from day one this season, Bradley won’t be throwing Bono under the bus, season will end and Bono will begin a new career, I see him on television as a soccer analyst, good looking intelligent guy, just overrated by TFC management .

I will obviously defer to JLoome on this with his background in media, but I feel like your readers questions should be the questions you ask as a journalist. I hope Bono goes on and has a good season next year in San Jose or wherever, but the time has come for both parties to move on.

[Gringo Starr]

I don't think that moment is defining his status now. Like most of the young guys that come from our academy he probably just isn't as good as we think/hope he is.
It’s just odd that he is the one guy who didn’t get a shot in the first half of the season.

[Oldtimer]

Waking the Red did an analysis of Bono's stats:

https://www.wakingthered.com/2022/8/24/23319448/what-do-the-stats-say-about-alex-bono

Strength in shot stopping, weakness in decision making and accurate passing.

[OgtheDim]

Interesting

That article has a fundamental misunderstanding of what long ball % means in terms of keeper capability - it suggests low long ball % is a bad thing. Could have been written by Sean Dyche.

A low long ball % in an of itself is not bad - all that means is a team plays from the back. A high % means teams are going long ball more often.

A low long ball % with a bad pass accuracy % means a keeper is in essence giving the ball up almost every time he kicks long. THAT'S where Bono is so bad for this team defensively. He gives the opposing team access to start an attack & stifles his own team's ball control - given TFC has been a ball control focused team since 2014, you'd think this would have been pointed out somewhere.

Which is why I go back to Conway - he HAS to be ignoring the analytics teams because there is no way they are not telling him how bad the long ball % completion rate is.



********

I'd be interested to hear what "working hard in training" means for a keeper in terms of distribution & decision making. Distribution at training is all an eye test & its not like the B team is going to go extremely hard in to contest balls out whereas decision making for a keeper in training is more along the lines of "we want to work on getting the ball forward in x way so start with that please Mr. Keeper". It would be very different for a sweeper keeper where they are an integrated part of the decision tree for attacks - Bono's job when he gets the ball is to see what is "on" long and if its not, play it short & if that doesn't work, just wait & hoof it to a zone.

[Hala Hrvatska]

In terms of keeper stats, is there one for "backbreaking goals" allowed? By backbreaking goals, I mean, blunders? The New England second goal and the first Miami goal should be 100% saved. Total demoralization for the team afterwards and I'd say we lost 3 points directly as a result. Who knows, maybe even 5 as we might have beat Miami but would have at least drew. I don't care how hard he works in training, those mistakes are unforgiveable.

I will give Bono a bit of slack on the clean sheets stat. He isn't solely to blame as we have been amongst the leaders for goals against for a number of years, and its a team effort there, Westburgh also doesnt get many clean sheets. Its the blunders though that hurt bad. And I do think he lacks on organizing the team on set pieces. And more preventable goals result.

On Bono's salary, is that $557k US? If CDN, that is still great for him...but if in US, at today's exchange rate, that over $720K CDN, wow! Great for him. But surely we can get better for cheaper?

And I have seen lots of talk about Conway. How much does he make? Is this like a part time gig?

[Joe Kool]

And I have seen lots of talk about Conway. How much does he make? Is this like a part time gig?

The Conway gig always baffled me. He was a mediocre MLS goalkeeper. He then became a GK coach. So it would be safe to assume he is teaching how to be mediocre as well? Not his fault if that is all he knows but amazing he got the job in the first place and then survived the turnovers in staff. Unless he is just running the drills that the other coaches come up with and collects the balls then I can see it.

[Section 223]

The Conway gig always baffled me. He was a mediocre MLS goalkeeper. He then became a GK coach. So it would be safe to assume he is teaching how to be mediocre as well? Not his fault if that is all he knows but amazing he got the job in the first place and then survived the turnovers in staff. Unless he is just running the drills that the other coaches come up with and collects the balls then I can see it.
Giving up a goal like Bono did the other night has nothing to do with coaching, it’s all about concentration and all of Bono’s blunders are a result of his lack of focus. A few of the guys here now want to hang Conway, I’ll tell you what Conway was a much better goalkeeper then Scotty Bowman was at playing hockey and Wayne Gretzky was the greatest ever but couldn’t coach a lick. Bono was simply never that good , ok yes , just another misstep in this organization’s assessment of talent.

[ensco]

Bono was outstanding early on in his career. He made many key saves in 2017, memorable ones include one against NYRB in the 2017 playoffs that saved the season, and in 2018 CCL away against America.

He has really never recovered from the floater Chivas scored in the first leg of the final at BMO that year. It cost us the CCL. His confidence has just never been the same since that moment.

I thought Bono was going to cry before PKs in Vancouver in June. Everybody could see it then. That's when I knew he was done, here. Bradley's decision to play him after that game, regardless of the options, is one of the most mystifying of his stint here so far. You canalways find a keeper somewhere in the window.

(I feel bad for Alex. I hope he finds it again elsewhere.)

[ag futbol]

The Conway gig always baffled me. He was a mediocre MLS goalkeeper. He then became a GK coach. So it would be safe to assume he is teaching how to be mediocre as well? Not his fault if that is all he knows but amazing he got the job in the first place and then survived the turnovers in staff. Unless he is just running the drills that the other coaches come up with and collects the balls then I can see it.
This is not meant as an endorsement of Conway (quite the opposite) but Mediocre players sometimes make great coaches. Especially those who stick around the league for a long time because they depend on improving and continuous training to keep their careers alive.

Guys who are overly blessed with talent are often the opposite. They don’t understand why it doesn’t come east to everyone and lack the patience to teach people.

[Joe Kool]

Giving up a goal like Bono did the other night has nothing to do with coaching, it’s all about concentration and all of Bono’s blunders are a result of his lack of focus. A few of the guys here now want to hang Conway, I’ll tell you what Conway was a much better goalkeeper then Scotty Bowman was at playing hockey and Wayne Gretzky was the greatest ever but couldn’t coach a lick. Bono was simply never that good , ok yes , just another misstep in this organization’s assessment of talent.

I was just referring to the Conway gig in general....not Bono's lack of concentration.

[Joe Kool]

This is not meant as an endorsement of Conway (quite the opposite) but Mediocre players sometimes make great coaches. Especially those who stick around the league for a long time because they depend on improving and continuous training to keep their careers alive.

Guys who are overly blessed with talent are often the opposite. They don’t understand why it doesn’t come east to everyone and lack the patience to teach people.

Yeah I don't pretend to know the intricacies of what it takes to coach at a pro level and maybe he knows what to do day to day to keep his job. Just saying from a very general outlook, he was an ok goalkeeper in his career but now he is coaching our GK's. Maybe we could do better, maybe not. I know our current problems in that area are down to actual players and not necessarily coaching. You always hear players talk about how much they learn and improve from playing with great players so was thinking along those lines...

[Kamp Berg]

Yeah I don't pretend to know the intricacies of what it takes to coach at a pro level and maybe he knows what to do day to day to keep his job. Just saying from a very general outlook, he was an ok goalkeeper in his career but now he is coaching our GK's. Maybe we could do better, maybe not. I know our current problems in that area are down to actual players and not necessarily coaching. You always hear players talk about how much they learn and improve from playing with great players so was thinking along those lines...

Westberg seems like the kind of player to make a good coach. His whole career is based on his read of the game.

[jloome]

Bono admitted in his Molinaro interview he just lost concentration for a split second.

I'm pretty sure that's beyond coaching To fix. They can help but they can't be the ones who Fix it. That's on Bono.

He always has good save stat but he's the worst distributor in the league and just error prone. The best they can offer him is a backup deal.

[Ultra & Proud]

He always has good save stat but he's the worst distributor in the league and just error prone. The best they can offer him is a backup deal.

I wouldn't even bother at this point. GKs who can just stop shots are a dime a dozen from NCAA.

We'd be better served to sign a young guy (CPL or USL?) and then aim for a legit #1 who would be expected to carry the load.

[Oldtimer]

Bono admitted in his Molinaro interview he just lost concentration for a split second.

I'm pretty sure that's beyond coaching To fix. They can help but they can't be the ones who Fix it. That's on Bono.

He always has good save stat but he's the worst distributor in the league and just error prone. The best they can offer him is a backup deal.

Stats show he's 25th, which technically means there are a few who are worse than him at distribution. Shot stopping, not too bad.

[Ultra & Proud]

Stats show he's 25th, which technically means there are a few who are worse than him at distribution.
But I bet those few aren't 8 year vets making almost $600K.

[ag futbol]

I wouldn't even bother at this point. GKs who can just stop shots are a dime a dozen from NCAA.

We'd be better served to sign a young guy (CPL or USL?) and then aim for a legit #1 who would be expected to carry the load.
I don’t hate the idea of looking to North America (as we seem to be decent at finding keepers). On the other hand, I look at what NER are paying Đorđe Petrović who looks quite solid and think that might be the smarted route, if we can replicate it.

[notthesun]

Just saying... things seemed to be going pretty well for us before the creation of this thread.

Coincidence? You tell me.

I take it as further evidence that realism has no place in football. :)

[Oldtimer]

Just saying... things seemed to be going pretty well for us before the creation of this thread.

Coincidence? You tell me.

I take it as further evidence that realism has no place in football. :)

:lol:

I started the thread because the team, the supporters, and the fans were getting ahead of themselves. One good transfer window doesn't make a solid team, even with a couple of players among the best players in MLS. The work is only partway done. We lack depth and are still weak in several positions. But the team is fun to watch again so let's just enjoy it for what it is without having too many expectations for 2022.

[Bushmancan]

:lol:

I started the thread because the team, the supporters, and the fans were getting ahead of themselves. One good transfer window doesn't make a solid team, even with a couple of players among the best players in MLS. The work is only partway done. We lack depth and are still weak in several positions. But the team is fun to watch again so let's just enjoy it for what it is without having too many expectations for 2022.

Thanks Oldtimer and I agree, the window was good but late. Prior to the Italians & Richie (he's my non DP, DP), there were two/three games where we played with no DPs and lost points, Insigne injured, Bernie not here yet, Nelson was a bit of a train wreck prior has played well recently, Thompson played admirably but was learning, JMR got injured...

For the current roster, with MAK i think we win both the NE & Miami games (even with the Bono blunder).

I really thought we were going to beat Miami, we outplayed them and had three marginal but one indisputable penalty not called. We score, it is 2 -2 and we win that game. It was fun to watch.

I am not shitting on the players, my frustration is more directed at management. We cleared house so massively that as stated above... we have no depth even today, who is the LW that can relieve LI. To be clear, I am not referring to earlier in the year, I mean right now. Our Italians played three full games in 8 days, the last one in the equivalent of 35+ degrees.

The Front Office have miscalculated injuries and condensced World Cup schedules in their plans. Still, i am going to hope, but more so, enjoy the final three home games. Would love to do a roadtrip for a playoff game!! COYRs

[Ultra & Proud]

Yup, this thread is a jinx.

[DavemTFC]

So looking at the remaining schdule and taking into account fixture congestion and the situation of the teams we're facing I think we need the minimum from the following games or pairs of games:

Homestand vs LAG and MTL: 4 points. It's exceedingly rare to have a 9 point week in MLS (I think DC were the first and maybe only team to do it when they won at BMO a few years ago?) and since we're going up against a team in the West and a team who are already pretty much guaranteed to qualify for the playoffs, we can hopefully afford to drop one of these and focus on getting max points from the sides who will be fighting for the last three playoff spots with us. Obviously we're all going to be really up for games against Vanney and Montreal though

Southeast road trip @ ATL and ORL: 4 points. Tempted to say 6 should be the minimum here, especially Orlando who probably have a better chance at making it than Atlanta and who have had some dud home performances over the year. Winning two straight away games is a big ask though

Home vs MIA: 3 points, absolute must win. Home, no midweek game, and against a very beatable but likely still in the hunt side. No excuses here

@ PHI: 1 point. By this point the Union should already have first in the East clinched but we have to hope LAFC have the shield clinched too. Philly are running riot at the moment, so if they're still in with a shot and actually going all out I don't think we stand much of a chance in the form they're in. Such are the margins that we probably need to get something here though

That gives us 3 wins, 3 draws, and 45 points on the season in total - I forget what the average minimum playoff team point total, has to be somewhere around that, but I think it'll probably leave us just short. Which means we'll need either 9 points from this week, 6 points from the two games in the deep South, or a win away at a Philly side that look like the best in the league right now. I think the second of those three options is by far the easiest - not impossible, but still really, really challenging. And needless to say if we do get in we'd be an even bigger long shot to win the cup since we'd almost certainly never get a home game

Glass half full, it should be fun to watch us try!

edited for clarity

[Ultra & Proud]

This thread is a jinx.

[Gringo Starr]

If the Galaxy and the pigeons win today this will still seem possible

[stevep]

Oddsmakers have it a dogfight for 5th and 6th in the east
tfc, NER, Mia, Columbus
Virtually identical odds for these four teams

[ensco]

Oddsmakers have it a dogfight for 5th and 6th in the east
tfc, NER, Mia, Columbus
Virtually identical odds for these four teams

I don’t understand how this can be, or makes sense anyway. TFC are in a significantly worse position than all three of those teams, all of whom are above them, and have games in hand.

[noxx98]

I don’t understand how this can be, or makes sense anyway. TFC are in a significantly worse position than all three of those teams, all of whom are above them, and have games in hand.
The oddsmakers on MLS have been off for a while... For the Miami game, some books had Perruzza, Antongolou and Kerr as more likely to score than Bernardeschi.

[Ronaldinho]

The oddsmakers on MLS have been off for a while... For the Miami game, some books had Perruzza, Antongolou and Kerr as more likely to score than Bernardeschi.

Yesterday the odds makers had Akinola at higher odds to score than Berna and Insigne. These new signings have banked me some major $$$.

[buddies]

So looking at the remaining schdule and taking into account fixture congestion and the situation of the teams we're facing I think we need the minimum from the following games or pairs of games:

Homestand vs LAG and MTL: 4 points. It's exceedingly rare to have a 9 point week in MLS (I think DC were the first and maybe only team to do it when they won at BMO a few years ago?) and since we're going up against a team in the West and a team who are already pretty much guaranteed to qualify for the playoffs, we can hopefully afford to drop one of these and focus on getting max points from the sides who will be fighting for the last three playoff spots with us. Obviously we're all going to be really up for games against Vanney and Montreal though

Southeast road trip @ ATL and ORL: 4 points. Tempted to say 6 should be the minimum here, especially Orlando who probably have a better chance at making it than Atlanta and who have had some dud home performances over the year. Winning two straight away games is a big ask though

Home vs MIA: 3 points, absolute must win. Home, no midweek game, and against a very beatable but likely still in the hunt side. No excuses here

@ PHI: 1 point. By this point the Union should already have first in the East clinched but we have to hope LAFC have the shield clinched too. Philly are running riot at the moment, so if they're still in with a shot and actually going all out I don't think we stand much of a chance in the form they're in. Such are the margins that we probably need to get something here though

That gives us 3 wins, 3 draws, and 45 points on the season in total - I forget what the average minimum playoff team point total, has to be somewhere around that, but I think it'll probably leave us just short. Which means we'll need either 9 points from this week, 6 points from the two games in the deep South, or a win away at a Philly side that look like the best in the league right now. I think the second of those three options is by far the easiest - not impossible, but still really, really challenging. And needless to say if we do get in we'd be an even bigger long shot to win the cup since we'd almost certainly never get a home game

Glass half full, it should be fun to watch us try!

edited for clarity

The highest number of points the 7th place team in the East has had since 2014 is 48. Excluding the shortened 2020 season it's taken 2021=48, 2019=45, 2018=46, 2017=45, 2016=42, 2015=44 and 2014=41 points to get 7th place. If we win out we can get 51 points. We can't afford to lose ANY points at all. One loss and it could be goal difference that decides ...

[noxx98]

One big thing is that the teams ahead of us are just not playing well. In their last number of games (yes I used slightly different cutoffs for each team, whatever):
Columbus is 1-4-1 (7 points, 1.16PPG)
Miami is 3-2-2 (11 points, 1.57PPG) - Miami is doing better but will miss Poz for at least one game now
Orlando is 2-2-3 (8 points, 1.14PPG)
Cinci is 1-6-1 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
NER is 2-3-3 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
Charlotte is 2-0-6 (6 points, 0.75 PPG)

Since the Italians joined we are 4-2-1 (14 points, 2 PPG). Assuming these PPG paces continue the standings will be:

5th - Miami, 46.99 points
6th - Columbus 45.28 points
7th - Orlando 45.12 points
8th - Toronto 45.00 points
9th - NER 43.04 points

If everyone keeps their current pace, we're in essentially a statistical tie for 6th place.

[ensco]

^Good analysis. Interesting. I would include Atlanta in any analysis, they have pedigree and two games in hand.

I watched it all this morning. We got the result thanks to the DPs, excellent, but I guess my main takeaway is that we are not yet playing like or looking like a quality team. This game could have easily gone very differently.

So I still think our odds are pretty close to zero.

But two outstanding games this coming week would change my mind! If we can get full points Wednesday, at least we get the pleasure of a big Montreal game Sunday. That would be sweet, and you know they don’t want to see us in October…

[noxx98]

^Good analysis. Interesting. I would include Atlanta in any analysis, they have pedigree and two games in hand.

Atlanta has 1.25PPG in their last 8 or 0.92PPG in their last 12. I think they're out of the race unless Martinez starts scoring like its 2019.

[stevep]

I don’t understand how this can be, or makes sense anyway. TFC are in a significantly worse position than all three of those teams, all of whom are above them, and have games in hand.
4 teams all same odds for two spots
we have roughly 50/50 odds as of today to make the playoffs
according to vegas

[Richard]

We've outscored opponents 17-9 since the arrival of the Italians. We really need to win against the teams ahead of us.

[stevep]

One big thing is that the teams ahead of us are just not playing well. In their last number of games (yes I used slightly different cutoffs for each team, whatever):
Columbus is 1-4-1 (7 points, 1.16PPG)
Miami is 3-2-2 (11 points, 1.57PPG) - Miami is doing better but will miss Poz for at least one game now
Orlando is 2-2-3 (8 points, 1.14PPG)
Cinci is 1-6-1 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
NER is 2-3-3 (9 points, 1.13PPG)
Charlotte is 2-0-6 (6 points, 0.75 PPG)

Since the Italians joined we are 4-2-1 (14 points, 2 PPG). Assuming these PPG paces continue the standings will be:

5th - Miami, 46.99 points
6th - Columbus 45.28 points
7th - Orlando 45.12 points
8th - Toronto 45.00 points
9th - NER 43.04 points

If everyone keeps their current pace, we're in essentially a statistical tie for 6th place.
The Orlando game is a must win

[ensco]

I would not bet TFC to make it at 50/50

Just my own sense of the math, recognizing the relevance of form.

[noxx98]

Taking a look at the schedule, there's a huge amount of interplay between the teams competing for the final 3 playoff spots (5th to 7th). I'll put the competitors as Orlando, Miami, Columbus, Cinci, NER, TFC. Maybe Charlotte and ATL, but I think they're both out of it.

Of their remaining games:
Orlando: 3 against Eastern playoff competitors (Columbus, Miami, TFC). 2 against top East teams (NYCFC, Philly). Plus a game vs Seattle who is fighting for the playoffs
Miami: 4 against Eastern playoff competitors (Columbus x2, TFC, Orlando). 1 against top East teams (Montreal). They have two games away to DCU and Chicago.
Columbus: 3 against Eastern playoff competitors (Miami x2, Orlando). 2 against top east teams (Montreal, NYRB). Then a game against Portland who's always tough.
Cinci: No games against Eastern playoff competitors, but Cinci is bad and I don't really think they have a chance.
NER: No games against Eastern playoff competitors, but games against LAG, NYCFC, NYRB, and Montreal.
TFC: 2 games against Eastern playoff competitors (Miami, Orlando plus ATL), 2 games against top east teams (MTL, Philly). Then LAG.

Best case is a bunch of draws in the Eastern conference clashes or one team just wins out every game to bump others down - Columbus going on a run would maybe be best case to knock Miami and Orlando out of it, especially if we take care of business against them too.

[los sonadores]

I would not bet TFC to make it at 50/50

Just my own sense of the math, recognizing the relevance of form.

Yeah, form. Often the club in question, yes, gets the breaks, but also there’s a certain stable drive happening. We’ve yet to field our best eleven and the bench is thin, players new to the league or too young, keeper shaky, etc. We could certainly pull it off but so far it’s looking like we’re very dependant on what happens with the other six clubs we’re in the running with.