When BMO opens up for TFC games?

[PizzaEatingYeti]

When BMO opens up for TFC games?
(in the 2021 season)

Vote in the poll! :)

This poll will be closing automatically in 21 days (after the date of this post).

:scarf:

[PizzaEatingYeti]

I voted August, with BMO being open to max 10% of capacity maybe...

[Red CB Toronto]

I could see it being at the 15-20% capacity to begin with. That would let in 5-6K. BMO Field with its layout could certainly spread people around in a very safe way with 5-6K in the stands. The lower bowl at BMO is about 15,500 seats.

[Bushmancan]

I could see it being at the 15-20% capacity to begin with. That would let in 5-6K. BMO Field with its layout could certainly spread people around in a very safe way with 5-6K in the stands. The lower bowl at BMO is about 15,500 seats.

With the loyalty they are showing SSH, that’s how they ding you for tickets. Even if you can’t use them. To be honest, i have no idea why i let them hold my money. What loyalty has MLSE shown us, 10% seat value credit on food and drinks assuming you can use it.

[Red CB Toronto]

With the loyalty they are showing SSH, that’s how they ding you for tickets. Even if you can’t use them. To be honest, i have no idea why i let them hold my money. What loyalty has MLSE shown us, 10% seat value credit on food and drinks assuming you can use it.

I think at that capacity they would offer it up as a normal season ticket through normal ticketing channels. I think trying to ding people during the times were are living in would not be the best of looks for MLSE right now. Now its its 250-500 fans at first, thats a different system, could they use an auction system like Montreal did last year, where the average price paid was $75 to attend one of the three games vs Canadian teams during the summer. Also I will point out when Orlando City was allowed to have 3,000 in the stands, there were normal priced tickets for general sale on Ticketmaster available, so there was not a run on tickets. FC Dallas was the same.

[Initial B]

I voted October, because I don't think governments will be too concerned about summer sporting events and more cautious about public safety, but Hockey teams and the Raptors will want their arenas filled for the 2021-2022 season, which starts in October. I figure that rather than make exceptions, the government sill simply open up all arenas to full capacity once 80% of the population has been vaccinated.

[Super]

It'll probably help us a great deal that the US is opening up so hard and fast now. I read that the Texas Rangers home opener against the Jays on April 3rd is sold out with 40k in attendance. We need to be watching the outcome of this, and then base our decisions on the data.

[ensco]

It'll probably help us a great deal that the US is opening up so hard and fast now. I read that the Texas Rangers home opener against the Jays on April 3rd is sold out with 40k in attendance. We need to be watching the outcome of this, and then base our decisions on the data.

We can’t base anything off anything there. It couldn’t be more different.

Texas is one of the worst performing states in the USA in terms of vaccination.

6M people in the state of Texas have had at least one shot. They are doing 300K shots a day. Total population 29M.

1.2M people in the province of Ontario have had at least one shot. We are doing 40K shots a day. Total population 14.5M

[Blindside16]

We can’t base anything off anything there. It couldn’t be more different.

Texas is one of the worst performing states in the USA in terms of vaccination.

6M people in the state of Texas have had at least one shot. They are doing 300K shots a day. Total population 29M.

1.2M people in the province of Ontario have had at least one shot. We are doing 40K shots a day. Total population 14.5M

I agree. Take Florida as another example. They have a population of 21.5M roughly and a total vaccinated of 4.9M and they decided to open everything up. They are now putting curfews back in place. Combine that with the fact that the WHO has come out and said there is a serious concern regarding the variants. Across the globe numbers are up 8%. More specifically 49% in southeast Asia and 29% in the Western Pacific. Granted the Americas and Africa are down but the question remains for how long. To accurately state that BMO will open up at such and such time is to difficult to call right now.

[Oldtimer]

Alabama is now vaccinating everyone 16 and older.

[OgtheDim]

The slightly worrying stat people are just starting to notice in various jurisdictions

% of age groups that have not gotten the vaccine

As more then one person has indicated, you want to see sports in full stadiums come back, you want to see restaurants full, you want to not have to wear a mask everywhere? Get your friends & relatives & anybody they know to get the jab.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUZziJSaKhQ

[Derko]

I think at that capacity they would offer it up as a normal season ticket through normal ticketing channels. I think trying to ding people during the times were are living in would not be the best of looks for MLSE right now. Now its its 250-500 fans at first, thats a different system, could they use an auction system like Montreal did last year, where the average price paid was $75 to attend one of the three games vs Canadian teams during the summer. Also I will point out when Orlando City was allowed to have 3,000 in the stands, there were normal priced tickets for general sale on Ticketmaster available, so there was not a run on tickets. FC Dallas was the same.

Fuck the auction system, I left my money in, I should get first crack at being able to attend home games. My opinion, but in my mind the fairest, people asked for a refund for given reasons and I respect that, but i like many others opted to keep the money in the coffers, so we should get first refusal.

[Blindside16]

Fuck the auction system, I left my money in, I should get first crack at being able to attend home games. My opinion, but in my mind the fairest, people asked for a refund for given reasons and I respect that, but i like many others opted to keep the money in the coffers, so we should get first refusal.


This!!

[Auzzy]

I voted for August. I think they'll allow limited attendance by then.


I hope we can all hang in there a bit longer, and be thankful for science. A year ago hardly anybody thought we could have a single vaccine in use by now, and many pundits said: because it's a coronavirus there's no way it could ever be as effective as the flu vaccine. Even in the summer, a doctor friend in the US (who treats COVID patients herself) was trying to convince us that a good vaccine against a coronavirus is unlikely. Instead we now have multiple very effective vaccines around the world.

Seriously guys, there won't be much use getting upset comparing ourselves to the US on vaccines for the next few weeks and months. Their COVID response was disastrous, everything was horribly politicized, and large parts of the nation are traumatized after the last 4 years and especially the last year. But they have the most powerful medical research and pharma industry in the world. About the only thing a large part of the country could agree upon was vaccines, so they got that done. On the flip side, they're the only major vaccine-producing country in the world who are not exporting any yet (aside from the 4 million doses of AZ being sent to Canada and Mexico this week). (I'm not sure about the UK either.)

We were all sold the story that free trade would take care of us; that selling off the Connaught Labs and them getting mostly shut down was no problem. Fun facts: at the time of their sale, the Connaught Labs were the largest manufacturer of flu vaccines in the world, and surely would have been at the forefront of the battle against COVID-19. And Connaught Labs ended up being owned by Sanofi Pasteur, who don't even have a functioning COVID vaccine released yet; they're still in stage 2 trials. Instead of free trade taking care of us, the largest Pfizer plant in the world for their Covid vaccine is 200km from the Cdn border, and they haven't sent us a single dose yet. I can understand why, the US was a raging dumpster fire up until now, but them's the breaks for Canada.

Canada is just going to have to live with not feeling superior to the US for a couple of months. I know that's hard. :D BTW the US states that are opening vaccinations to everyone the earliest, won't necessarily do the best. It's basically a populist decision and not science-based in some cases. Some areas have not done well enough in getting a high proportion of the vulnerable population vaccinated before opening it up to everyone.

Let's face it, I don't think it's even been mentioned on this forum: everyone from Toronto FC that is heading down to Florida, will be getting vaccinated there within a month or two. The league or teams may soon mandate it, to reduce the risk of transmission or games being cancelled. That will also affect TFC's return to Canada: once everyone on the team and on the opponent teams are fully vaccinated, the Cdn governments will have little trouble with them all travelling back and forth for games (initially w/o fans in the stands in Canada).

For some good news: Canada is now vaccinating at the 3rd-highest rate (adjusted for population) of all major economies; see the tweet below. Already a few days ago there was another stat, that averaged over 7 days, Canada was vaccinating at the 5th-highest rate of all G20 countries. And all that's before the vaccine floods arriving in Canada in the next few weeks. If the AZ vaccine starts getting used more heavily in the EU once more, they'll pick up again, but at most Canada will be a few days behind. (And we better all start getting third-world nations vaccinated, or the virus variants that evolve there will kill many more of us before the vaccines catch up again.)

https://twitter.com/wendy_waters/status/1374379904859398148

[Auzzy]

“Toronto sports fans will return to their favourite stadium or arena to once again cheer on their sporting heroes. But when? And how will it look?”

https://www.thestar.com/sports/2021/03/24/toronto-sports-fans-will-return-to-their-favourite-stadium-or-arena-to-once-again-cheer-on-their-sporting-heroes-but-when-and-how-will-it-look.html

[OgtheDim]

The first TBD for a home venue in the schedule is June 19th.

That's the target date for a home game, it seems. Fans by then? Doubtful.

[Blindside16]

The first TBD for a home venue in the schedule is June 19th.

That's the target date for a home game, it seems. Fans by then? Doubtful.


I doubt that as well. I had voted November mainly because I have zero confidence in both levels of government at the moment, but after reading Laura Armstrongs article I am much more confident we will see limited capacity late summer early fall. How they will determine who will be in the stands is another matter all on it's own

[jabbronies]

I said October - but September is also viable

[Cas87]

Sticking to my original prediction in another Thread:

TFC back to play in BMO: July
Fans back in (limited capacity to start): September (growing as the season and playoffs go)

[TFC1986]

Local pubs will all be packed too watching TFC games... Can't wait

[613reppingTFC]

Hmm I think I might want to push my answer of September back a bit further. With the halt of AZ in people under the age of 55 now, this may delay things a little bit

[OgtheDim]

Counterpoint - Pfizer moving up Q3 deliveries to Q2 - 30 million between them & Moderna by the end of June. Also, today Feds announced J&J starting end of April - 10 million original purchase but no schedule for delivery yet.

[Oldtimer]

Counterpoint - Pfizer moving up Q3 deliveries to Q2 - 30 million between them & Moderna by the end of June. Also, today Feds announced J&J starting end of April - 10 million original purchase but no schedule for delivery yet.

J&J will probably come after the US is finished with the bulk of vaccinations. It's coming from the US.

[leedsandTFC]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1376925777397186560

great news

[Auzzy]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1376925777397186560

great news

Woohoo that’s great news!

Also J&J confirmed to start arriving in Canada in April.

I just wish I was 1 1/2 years older (55), there’s gonna be lots of AZ vaccine available for that age group immediately...

[OgtheDim]

Woohoo that’s great news!

Also J&J confirmed to start arriving in Canada in April.

I just wish I was 1 1/2 years older (55), there’s gonna be lots of AZ vaccine available for that age group immediately...

Funny, as a person 1 1/2 years older then that (57 this year) I feel the exact same way about the 60 year olds.

[Auzzy]

Funny, as a person 1 1/2 years older then that (57 this year) I feel the exact same way about the 60 year olds.

So you're the exact same age as my wife. I guess you guys will probably get access to AZ soon, as they just got a big whack of doses from the US, they won't use it for under 55s for now, and most of the over 70s or over 65s will have access to Pfizer or Moderna soon?

In terms of getting life including BMO Field restarted: so far the under 18 crowd is hardly covered. Only Pfizer is approved, only for 16+. But first Pfizer results from a study of 12-15 year olds in the US looks good, and Moderna will probably soon be presenting results for 12-17 year olds.

[Red CB Toronto]

Funny, as a person 1 1/2 years older then that (57 this year) I feel the exact same way about the 60 year olds.

My parents who are 72 and 71 got their vaccination appointments for this Friday at Sunnybrook. They only made their appointments last Friday, the first day Sunnybrook started accepting 70+. Now I see some GTA regions have already moved to 65+. So we are not far off where the provincial path for Moderna and Pfizer and the Pharmacies offering AZ being available to the same people. It will be interesting to see how much doubt people have about AZ thus wait for the age group to get one of their offer two or JJ when it becomes available. Now here is a question , could we see an origination MLSE for instance make an event 18+ until we know more about kids being vaccinated or not, or is that opening up a can of worms that’s not worth it?

[Canary10]

My kid's school is preparing for lock-down next week (after the Easter weekend), and for schools to be back to virtual. Seems like they've been told already (Ford is announcing something tomorrow), as we've been asked by our teacher and principal to do our prep urgently before the kids go for the long weekend. We're obviously in a third wave. I think if we're back to a full lock-down, or even a regional one in Toronto, that's the end of any chance of BMO opening this year. By the time we get to the third wave peak and back down, we're already into late summer and I can't see any chance of large-scale events this year, even with vaccinations picking up steam. Hopefully this is the last push. I think we'll know in the next 3 weeks if there is a chance.

[leedsandTFC]

My kid's school is preparing for lock-down next week (after the Easter weekend), and for schools to be back to virtual. Seems like they've been told already (Ford is announcing something tomorrow), as we've been asked by our teacher and principal to do our prep urgently before the kids go for the long weekend. We're obviously in a third wave. I think if we're back to a full lock-down, or even a regional one in Toronto, that's the end of any chance of BMO opening this year. By the time we get to the third wave peak and back down, we're already into late summer and I can't see any chance of large-scale events this year, even with vaccinations picking up steam. Hopefully this is the last push. I think we'll know in the next 3 weeks if there is a chance.

assuming the vaccines can get into arms, the third wave wont have the same span as the former two, especially with the news that vaccinated people dont carry the virus.

a 6-8 week lockdown with consistently increasing vaccination numbers will go most of the way to crush the 3rd wave.

[Cas87]

The main thing that will determine if Rogers Centre or BMO open up is 2 fold:

1) Are they just going to open to the teams to play
2) Will there, and eventually how many, fans will there be in the stands

For #1 there is an added factor for all levels of government to consider:
The Toronto Teams are in Florida, and many members are American citizens (or have US green cards to play) ... this means that within the next month they will all be vaccinated via the US efforts.
As long as the majority of the teams get their shots then I think the Jays and TFC are back by June with no fans in the stands (and of course still following Canadian public health guidelines/League guidelines when they are here)
Both TFC and the Jays have an advantage in that they have accommodation for the visiting teams that will keep them close to where they are playing (with certain amenities).

As for #2 - Fans going back in - I don't think we'll get there this year (just to be really cautious and account to any other issues that might creep up).

[Red CB Toronto]

I could see them only letting in vaccinated fans and those that have had a negative covid test in the last 3 days similar to what they are doing in NYC with the Yankees and Mets among other teams. The big thing is one is not fully available yet in our country and the other will cost you, so would MLSE, Rogers etc swill see it as being worth it, but by late summer I could see it.

[leedsandTFC]

The main thing that will determine if Rogers Centre or BMO open up is 2 fold:

1) Are they just going to open to the teams to play
2) Will there, and eventually how many, fans will there be in the stands

For #1 there is an added factor for all levels of government to consider:
The Toronto Teams are in Florida, and many members are American citizens (or have US green cards to play) ... this means that within the next month they will all be vaccinated via the US efforts.
As long as the majority of the teams get their shots then I think the Jays and TFC are back by June with no fans in the stands (and of course still following Canadian public health guidelines/League guidelines when they are here)
Both TFC and the Jays have an advantage in that they have accommodation for the visiting teams that will keep them close to where they are playing (with certain amenities).

As for #2 - Fans going back in - I don't think we'll get there this year (just to be really cautious and account to any other issues that might creep up).

if fans aren't back in the stadium this year then the vaccine hasn't worked (and it is working very well, by all accounts).

if there are playoff games in toronto, there will be a full stadium for them.

[Canary10]

if fans aren't back in the stadium this year then the vaccine hasn't worked (and it is working very well, by all accounts).

if there are playoff games in toronto, there will be a full stadium for them.

It's not efficacy of the vaccine. It's having enough runway to ramp up of the vaccination program enough to fight back the big numbers we have now and come down the other side in time for late summer/fall. Everything would need to go perfectly right now to get 35,000 people into BMO this year. I can't see us going from max 5 people outdoors on May 1 (and probably longer) to 35,000 by October. Chances are extremely slim now, especially with risk averse governments. Hopefully they will at least get to play at BMO with no fans this summer as Cas87 said.

[leedsandTFC]

It's not efficacy of the vaccine. It's having enough runway to ramp up of the vaccination program enough to fight back the big numbers we have now and come down the other side in time for late summer/fall. Everything would need to go perfectly right now to get 35,000 people into BMO this year. I can't see us going from max 5 people outdoors on May 1 (and probably longer) to 35,000 by October. Chances are extremely slim now, especially with risk averse governments. Hopefully they will at least get to play at BMO with no fans this summer as Cas87 said.

we're approaching 100K+ vaccinations a day right now and keep increasing, and based on CDC data, vaccinated people dont carry COVID.

once you get a certain inflection point of vaccines, cases will absolutely plummet and the R value will be so low that the disease will die out naturally.

we're going to hit that inflection point in the next 3 months.

[Canary10]

we're approaching 100K+ vaccinations a day right now and keep increasing, and based on CDC data, vaccinated people dont carry COVID.

once you get a certain inflection point of vaccines, cases will absolutely plummet and the R value will be so low that the disease will die out naturally.

we're going to hit that inflection point in the next 3 months.

We have yet to hit 100,000/day and the ramp up has been slow. This is a government not particularly good at implementation - the only thing I think is certain is that it'll be slower than we think. We have about 12 million Ontarians over the age of 18. If we could actually get to that 100,000 a day and keep that average consistently 7 days a week it would already take till the end of July to vaccinate everyone in Ontario over 18 once. We also don't know where the inflection point is. We still don't really know the impact of variants....lots of unknowns.

It's great that you're optimistic, i'm not feeling that. I don't think we'll get to a point where government gives the ok to a packed crowd of 35,000 plus this year. They'll be risk averse even if everything goes right. It'll be easier to say next year.

Anyway, we'll see....

[Red CB Toronto]

Talking about having 5,000-10,000 fans in the stands is a completely different beast than having a full stadium. As i have said, you could have vaccinated people and those with a recent negative test. If the border opens, I do not see anything else that could prevent games from being played here.

[Canary10]

Talking about having 5,000-10,000 fans in the stands is a completely different beast than having a full stadium. As i have said, you could have vaccinated people and those with a recent negative test. If the border opens, I do not see anything else that could prevent games from being played here.

I don't think we have a way to prove that yet, and probably not in the near future. As I understand it, there are lots of discussions about how to go about proving your vaccinations (and privacy issues, etc that go into that). The certificate my family members who have been vaccinated received could be made by anyone with Word.

I agree though we could at least have games at BMO if we could get a border agreement.

[Red CB Toronto]

I don't think we have a way to prove that yet, and probably not in the near future. As I understand it, there are lots of discussions about how to go about proving your vaccinations (and privacy issues, etc that go into that). The certificate my family members who have been vaccinated received could be made by anyone with Word.

I agree though we could at least have games at BMO if we could get a border agreement.

We have seen people returning to games in the US and spread have not been attributed to those in attendance. In New York today you either had to have been vaccinated or have had a negative test in the last 72 hours. New York actually is using a vaccination passport app, that you down load and it is scanned when you enter the stadium. On the other hand other parts of the US are the wild west including in Texas where the the Rangers will have a sold out stadium.

[Canary10]

We have seen people returning to games in the US and spread have not been attributed to those in attendance. In New York today you either had to have been vaccinated or have had a negative test in the last 72 hours. New York actually is using a vaccination passport app, that you down load and it is scanned when you enter the stadium. On the other hand other parts of the US are the wild west including in Texas where the the Rangers will have a sold out stadium.

Yeah that’s great. It shouldn’t be that difficult but if the Ontario government has a role in it here it’ll take a while! We treat health information like it’s sacred. Which may be good, but slows things down when you need quicker solutions.

[leedsandTFC]

We have yet to hit 100,000/day and the ramp up has been slow. This is a government not particularly good at implementation - the only thing I think is certain is that it'll be slower than we think. We have about 12 million Ontarians over the age of 18. If we could actually get to that 100,000 a day and keep that average consistently 7 days a week it would already take till the end of July to vaccinate everyone in Ontario over 18 once. We also don't know where the inflection point is. We still don't really know the impact of variants....lots of unknowns.

It's great that you're optimistic, i'm not feeling that. I don't think we'll get to a point where government gives the ok to a packed crowd of 35,000 plus this year. They'll be risk averse even if everything goes right. It'll be easier to say next year.

Anyway, we'll see....

you don't need everyone, you need 80%+ of adults, and we'll hit that in mid june.

we do know about variants, vaccines work on them, and this news is a game changer:

https://fortune.com/2021/04/01/its-official-vaccinated-people-dont-transmit-covid-19/

in last two weeks we've gone from 40K to 80K a day, and toronto just opened up mass vaccination centres to everyone over 60.

this will be largely over as a pandemic faster than people think (not to say we wont be dealing with psychological, economic impacts for years to come).

[OgtheDim]

The vaccine news today is really encouraging - not only because my age group has an option now.
They are starting to allow local hospitals to target areas where essential service workers live.
Stage 2, which is where we are, contains the populations with the vast majority of current cases - essential workers (ignore all the talk about "people misbehaving" & "getting together" - no don't do that but the people getting it now are essential workers who can's stay home). IF people get vaccinated in the essential services areas then by the end of May the cases will plummet.

April is going to be really cruddy though.

[Auzzy]

I agree the next 4-6 weeks will be awful, but I feel that will have little to do with BMO field attendance in the late summer or fall. The measures announced for Saturday won't do much. They may slightly slow the increase in cases that we would have had otherwise, in areas that were red or orange up to now, but were already exploding -- yet they won't actually stop the growth or lead to a decline. But August / September is too far away to be impacted by this wave.

I'm hoping the better weather and people going outside will help more. As well as some people getting worried about stories from the hospitals, where over 20% of COVID-19 patients are already below 50, and close to 40% are below 60. (Both those numbers and percentages will continue to increase in the coming weeks.)

OgtheDim, totally agree that "essential workers" and risky workplaces play a huge role -- and that targeted vaccination will help there. ("Essential workers" always deserves quotation marks, because it still includes all kinds of onsite office work and similar things which could be done more safely, as well as non-essential manufacturing, construction and other activities which should at least be monitored & enforced closely, but aren't.) But it really is All Of The Above -- workers getting infected on the job & spreading it at home; but also lots of unsafe private activities. I directly know so many people from various economic backgrounds that meet with family and friends from multiple households in unsafe environments. Again, maybe better weather and a bit of fear will help with that.

But for good news: Canada is now vaccinating at the third-highest rate of all G20 nations, over 200k per day, and just starting to ramp up. (Think about it, that's a rate equivalent to 2 million doses per day in the US, and is significant.) Also the news mentioned above is awesome -- that vaccination also drastically reduces transmission. There will be more hiccups for sure, e.g. a J&J subcontractor destroyed 15 million vaccine doses by mistake -- holy fuck -- but I still think the US vaccine plants are going to send Canada a huge whack of doses in June to mop things up. I'm sticking with my prediction of limited BMO attendance sometime in August.

[ensco]

An awful lot turns on what happens in the EU over the next two weeks. The political situation in almost all the major EU countries is unstable, and people there want real vaccine export bans.

(If you think people are angry here about the slow vaccination rollout... imagine Canada made tons of vaccine and were exporting almost all of it, and our politicians were allowing it.)

[Canary10]

The vaccine news today is really encouraging - not only because my age group has an option now.
They are starting to allow local hospitals to target areas where essential service workers live.
Stage 2, which is where we are, contains the populations with the vast majority of current cases - essential workers (ignore all the talk about "people misbehaving" & "getting together" - no don't do that but the people getting it now are essential workers who can's stay home). IF people get vaccinated in the essential services areas then by the end of May the cases will plummet.

April is going to be really cruddy though.

These are the areas with vaccination deserts currently. The vaccination roll-out has been bungled which is why we won’t come anywhere near 80% of the adult population vaccinated by June. We have a vaccination hesitancy problem too, at least amongst the age eligible population now. Hopefully that will change once we get into ages with school aged children.

[OgtheDim]

These are the areas with vaccination deserts currently. The vaccination roll-out has been bungled which is why we won’t come anywhere near 80% of the adult population vaccinated by June. We have a vaccination hesitancy problem too, at least amongst the age eligible population now. Hopefully that will change once we get into ages with school aged children.


The biggest vaccine deserts were Brampton & the North West of Toronto - almost every pharmacy of the big 3 chains that is in those areas was added yesterday. The hospital targetting of specific area is huge though - this means the province is reducing its involvement at the local level as to who gets what. The micro managing made sense when there was little supply but not anymore.

As for hesitancy, yes its there. But the biggest thing that is dropping that hesitancy in the States is seeing people getting it. The passport / proof of immunization demand is coming - and anybody who travels outside of Europe & North America knows these exist already. When work asks, people will do.

I agree with ensco in that the biggest potential roadblock in all this is the potential for European export bans - but looking at the stats, they seem to have gotten back on track as far as amount of vaccinations per day. There was a wobble a couple of weeks ago as UK buys took up a lot of the European stock & that made them all angry but that has ceased. Here's where that data is available (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=41..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Vaccinations&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=AUT~DEU~SVK~USA~EuropeanUnion~ITA~FRA~ESP~ POL~CZE~CAN~GBR).

[Canary10]

The biggest vaccine deserts were Brampton & the North West of Toronto - almost every pharmacy of the big 3 chains that is in those areas was added yesterday. The hospital targetting of specific area is huge though - this means the province is reducing its involvement at the local level as to who gets what. The micro managing made sense when there was little supply but not anymore.

As for hesitancy, yes its there. But the biggest thing that is dropping that hesitancy in the States is seeing people getting it. The passport / proof of immunization demand is coming - and anybody who travels outside of Europe & North America knows these exist already. When work asks, people will do.

I agree with ensco in that the biggest potential roadblock in all this is the potential for European export bans - but looking at the stats, they seem to have gotten back on track as far as amount of vaccinations per day. There was a wobble a couple of weeks ago as UK buys took up a lot of the European stock & that made them all angry but that has ceased. Here's where that data is available (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=41..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Vaccinations&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=AUT~DEU~SVK~USA~EuropeanUnion~ITA~FRA~ESP~ POL~CZE~CAN~GBR).

I thought that’s what you meant when you said the areas where essential workers live. Also northeast Scarborough. Apologies if I misunderstood. Glad we’re doing something to target those areas finally.

[Auzzy]

An awful lot turns on what happens in the EU over the next two weeks. The political situation in almost all the major EU countries is unstable, and people there want real vaccine export bans.

(If you think people are angry here about the slow vaccination rollout... imagine Canada made tons of vaccine and were exporting almost all of it, and our politicians were allowing it.)

I agree there's lots of anger. Peak grumpiness in Germany these days -- but vaccine exports are only a small part of that. (Politicians of a certain ruling party making money from their side jobs with PPE companies don't help.)

EU is not "exporting almost all of it." The EU is using 58% of their production internally, and exporting 42%. More of their anger is reserved towards the UK, who are exporting 0% of their internal vaccine production, in addition to being the largest importer of vaccines from the EU, while also crowing about the success of their vaccination effort and saying it proves that Brexit was the right thing. Triple slap in the face.

Anger also towards AZ who are massively breaching their EU supply guarantees while simultaneously fulfilling orders from outside of the EU. Combined with anger towards exports to countries that are way ahead of the EU in vaccinations. (E.g. I believe Israel got all their Pfizer doses from the EU. Now it looks like Israeli deliveries & vaccinations have significantly slowed once they got past 100 doses per 100 population, of these two-dose vaccines.)

I don't think Canada is scheduled to get any AZ from the EU? I believe there's less anger now towards Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna, which is what Canada is getting from the EU (at least after those companies got past their earlier plant retooling and supply chain problems). And the important people know that Canada placed their orders 3 months before the EU, which helped to kick-start the EU production. Also the companies and countries want to be biotech exporters, so are wary of being too restrictive.

But I do agree that Canada could still get side-swiped, especially if the Canada vaccine effort should get way ahead of the EU leaders, or if other production problems arise.

https://www.statista.com/chart/24555/vaccine-doses-produced-and-exported/

https://www.statista.com/chart/24458/eu-covid-19-vaccine-exports/

Note also that the EU imports raw materials for the vaccines, so export bans could boomerang.

[ensco]

^ I stand corrected re Euro vaccine exports. I saw something elsewhere but it was just wrong.

Excellent summary.

[Oldtimer]

I don't think Canada is scheduled to get any AZ from the EU?

Apart from Biden's loan to Canada, we've been told it's not coming from the US, at least from now. That leaves India (which has engaged in some vaccine nationalism of their own) and Belgium (EU). The stuff we already got from India (a generic version of the AZ with a different name) was the almost expired vaccine from the Covax program. (Some other countries have licensed producing AZ, but that's for their own domestic use, I believe.)

I suspect that if we get any more after the Biden shipment, it will be from Belgium. However, who knows what's going to happen?

[Auzzy]

Apart from Biden's loan to Canada, we've been told it's not coming from the US, at least from now. That leaves India (which has engaged in some vaccine nationalism of their own) and Belgium (EU). The stuff we already got from India (a generic version of the AZ with a different name) was the almost expired vaccine from the Covax program. (Some other countries have licensed producing AZ, but that's for their own domestic use, I believe.)

I suspect that if we get any more after the Biden shipment, it will be from Belgium. However, who knows what's going to happen?

Actually 20 million or 84% of Canada’s AZ doses are contracted to come from the US. The 1.5 million doses received from the US so far were an advance delivery on that order.

Canada is also getting 2 million doses of the identical CoviShield vaccine directly from the Serum Institute of India. The 500k doses received at the beginning of March were part of that order, directly from them, not via COVAX. Of the 500k, 300k were set to expire on April 2nd, and the provinces stated that they were able to use those up in time. For India it was useful that Canada had the infrastructure to use up doses quickly, as other customers had not ramped up vaccinations quickly enough and were not ready to receive large orders. The other 200k already delivered are good to use until the end of June.

Canada’s remaining 1.9 million AZ doses are contracted to come from COVAX. The COVAX deliveries will start next week.

Canada is not scheduled to receive any AZ doses directly from Europe.

RE possible delays: The AZ vaccine has not been approved yet in the US, although they already have many million doses in storage. Two days ago Fauci said the US will probably not need AZ at all, due to other vaccines already approved and on order. I suspect the US will hold onto part of their potential AZ order for a bit longer, in case there are unexpected major problems with other vaccines. They will probably release the rest of the 20 million Canadian order bit by bit, when Canada needs it & to ensure things are used up well in advance of expiry dates.

Canada was scheduled to receive the remaining 1.5 million AZ / CoviShield doses directly from India by the end of May. That is currently on hold as India focuses on their domestic issues, but there’s still lots of time before May, we shall see.

We’ll also see how many Canadians want to take AZ and how many doses we actually need. A bunch of my colleagues at work already got AZ as the initial 60-65 crowd. My wife is registered among the new 55+ group for AZ and we’re waiting to hear. With Toronto & other cities now offering Pfizer & Moderna to everyone 60+, and AZ currently banned for those under 55 like me, there may not be that much demand.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/health-canada-greenlights-u-s-batch-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-1.5371335

And: https://globalnews.ca/news/7728936/astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-expiry-april-2/

[Derko]

I actually don't have a problem with a proof of vaccination 'App/Passport', I know people will gripe about it, but we needed a proof of vaccine record for our kids when they went to school, it was just the norm, I don't remember anyone complaining about that. Happy Easter

[OgtheDim]

MLS teams are starting to get vaccinated - Cinci & Inter Miami yesterday. Teams are advertising this along the lines of doing their civic duty.

This will make a difference as to whom is allowed to come here. Likely will see players & staff without vaccines not being allowed to travel with their teams - a version of the visa issue some players with legal issues have had.

[Red CB Toronto]

The Reds have started to get vaccinated. An initial group including Ali Curtis have got their first dose. The rest of the players and staff who did not make the trip to Mexico were getting there's today and the rest will get it on Friday after returning back to Florida. I hope this is a first step in allowing the Reds to head back to Toronto at some point not too far down the line. I assume the same is happening with the other MLS teams.


https://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/article/toronto-fc-personnel-getting-covid-19-vaccinations-florida/

[leedsandTFC]

over 212K vaccines in last two days and steadily adding more eligible people every day!

finally going at a good pace

[nfitz]

over 212K vaccines in last two days and steadily adding more eligible people every day!

finally going at a good paceLet's hope the EU doesn't notice that we've have significantly overtaken them in vaccination, and blocks exports.

[OgtheDim]

Yeh, the pace locally has been good because they finally got down to an age group who grew up with computers in schools. Still a pain in the ass to figure it out without guidance.

I know some people are saying July for fans but the 4 month gap still cries out August to me.


May games - everybody in the stands is over 80 and lives in a LTCH
June games - add in medical workers & +75
July games - add in 55+ and a few people outside of the the GTA
August - add in 35+

[Oldtimer]

Yeh, the pace locally has been good because they finally got down to an age group who grew up with computers in schools. Still a pain in the ass to figure it out without guidance.

I know some people are saying July for fans but the 4 month gap still cries out August to me.


May games - everybody in the stands is over 80 and lives in a LTCH
June games - add in medical workers & +75
July games - add in 55+ and a few people outside of the the GTA
August - add in 35+

You're not vaccinated until you have two doses (unless you get J&J). September is when I expect to see BMO open to fans.

[leedsandTFC]

You're not vaccinated until you have two doses (unless you get J&J). September is when I expect to see BMO open to fans.

lol, 1 dose is 80% protection, 2nd brings it up to 90% for most.

expect to see the deaths and ICU entries plummet after most seniors are vaccinated.

we're already seeing stagnant deaths as cases skyrocket, due to the number of seniors vaccinated.

this ford govt will use plummeting ICU and death rates to open up btw.

[James17930]

Not really basing it on any numbers or anything, but I get the feeling they won't re-open everything until next year. I bet they'll feel it's all too risky and messy.

[leedsandTFC]

Not really basing it on any numbers or anything, but I get the feeling they won't re-open everything until next year. I bet they'll feel it's all too risky and messy.

have you seen the doug ford gotv?

they've been opening stuff whenever the ICU entries drop a bit.

what do you think they're going to do when ICU entries hit rock bottom in august?

[OgtheDim]

You're not vaccinated until you have two doses (unless you get J&J). September is when I expect to see BMO open to fans.


Oh, I know - got my AZ 1st dose this week. I'm basing stuff on 16 weeks interval & then 2 weeks after and a passport & limited capacity at first.

[Oldtimer]

lol, 1 dose is 80% protection, 2nd brings it up to 90% for most.



These stats are true for the original strain, and for the most common variant. Apparently a single dose doesn't work against two of the variants out there. You need both. Here's an article by an American epidemiologist telling the US not to follow Canada's example for that very reason.

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/dont-be-seduced-two-shots-are-better-one

[Oldtimer]

Oh, I know - got my AZ 1st dose this week. I'm basing stuff on 16 weeks interval & then 2 weeks after and a passport & limited capacity at first.

Congrats on getting a shot. Hopefully shot #2 will come sooner than 16 weeks, health officials are optimistic.

[Auzzy]

These stats are true for the original strain, and for the most common variant. Apparently a single dose doesn't work against two of the variants out there. You need both. Here's an article by an American epidemiologist telling the US not to follow Canada's example for that very reason.

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/dont-be-seduced-two-shots-are-better-one

There are lots of articles by epidemiologists and other experts on both sides of this argument. Canada's recommendation was made by NACI, who are all experts. We shall see I guess. Plus what's good for the US (with an abundance of vaccine doses) may be different for the 99% of countries with more limited vaccine availability. The author also alludes to the increasing vaccine availability in the US in this article (which is from March 18th).

And what's good for Ontario (mostly the UK variant of COVID) may even be different from BC (largest cluster of P1 Brazilian variant outside of Brazil, very worrisome).

It's odd the author mentioned Germany specifically as a country using a delayed second-dose strategy, as Germany is actually being more conservative with that than many others. They're administering 2nd doses quite quickly. As a result, Germany's total number of doses administered per hundred pop. is similar to many other countries like Finland, near the top in the EU, and currently about 1% or 1 day ahead of Canada. On the other hand, Germany's percentage of at least partially-immunized population, with at least first doses administered, is relatively low compared to many of these countries. Some experts in Germany are very happy about that, some not so much.

Hopefully especially the most vulnerable get the 2nd dose relatively quickly in Canada, as they seem to be less responsive to the first dose, even of the mRNA vaccines. That's already been taken care of in LTC, and hopefully it soon extends to all of the oldest and other immunocompromised population. Finland for example had a very deliberate strategy from the start, that only the most seriously at risk get their 2nd dose quickly.


Congrats on getting a shot. Hopefully shot #2 will come sooner than 16 weeks, health officials are optimistic.

My wife also got AZ #1 yesterday, woohoo! (I'm too young.) AZ seems to be a vaccine that specifically does better with a longer gap between 1st and 2nd dose. Yeah not necessarily 16 weeks, but longer than what the manufacturer originally recommended. Note that AZ (like all the manufacturers rushing to beat this disease) didn't have time to test different gaps before the original release of their vaccine.

Also NACI's "maximum 16 weeks gap" seems to have turned into "minimum 16 weeks gap" in many conversations, that should not be the case.

[Red CB Toronto]

Oh, I know - got my AZ 1st dose this week. I'm basing stuff on 16 weeks interval & then 2 weeks after and a passport & limited capacity at first.


Congrats on getting a shot. Hopefully shot #2 will come sooner than 16 weeks, health officials are optimistic.

Thats great to hear you got your first jab. With the AZ being done through the pharmacies and each one being left to their devices on how they handle them, from appointments, walk-ins you may be able to get one earlier. One pharmacist this week was giving priority to teachers. The provincial system for Moderna and Pfizer is a different story. When my parents for their Pfizer shots at Sunnybrook last week they were given appointments in July for their second dose. Now it may get moved up depending on how things go over the next couple months, we shall see.

[Auzzy]

BTW if anyone above 55 wants to get the AZ vaccine quickly, my wife called Northcliffe Pharmacy on Eglinton West yesterday morning and got her shot within 2 1/2 hours. (That's a Guardian / IDA pharmacy.) She was already registered with Shoppers and Rexall longer but hasn't heard from them yet.

[leedsandTFC]

These stats are true for the original strain, and for the most common variant. Apparently a single dose doesn't work against two of the variants out there. You need both. Here's an article by an American epidemiologist telling the US not to follow Canada's example for that very reason.

https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/dont-be-seduced-two-shots-are-better-one

the UK are doing the one dose strategy and it's working.

they are on course to hit herd immunity very soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus-uk-b1828267.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617868868

[Oldtimer]

the UK are doing the one dose strategy and it's working.

they are on course to hit herd immunity very soon.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus-uk-b1828267.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1617868868


I'm not an epidemiologist and I don't believe any of us here are. I'm only pointing out that experts think there are reasons why a single dose strategy (that may * possibly * be working in the UK, but they question that if you read the article) won't lead to an early reopening of everything. So it may be wishful thinking that fans will be in the stands in May.

[leedsandTFC]

I'm not an epidemiologist and I don't believe any of us here are. I'm only pointing out that experts think there are reasons why a single dose strategy (that may * possibly * be working in the UK, but they question that if you read the article) won't lead to an early reopening of everything. So it may be wishful thinking that fans will be in the stands in May.

i don't think by may btw, i think they'll be back in toronto by june, but fans back in by july.

[Canary10]

The Blue Jays are expecting to play in Buffalo through the summer.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/blue-jays-renovating-buffalo-ballpark-for-2021.html?__twitter_impression=true

[fergiejr]

I put October. I can't see fans being in there til then. Hopefully I'm wrong... :scarf:

[PizzaEatingYeti]

The poll has closed.

So the most people think BMO will open with butts in the stands in September.

One more thing is shown by this poll: just 49 voters on a issue on which I guess every forum participant would have an opinion.
Which means the forum is read these days regularly by just a handful of guys... pretty sad. I think in better times we would have seen at least 150 voters.

There is some excitement painfully missing around this team.

[ensco]

I didn’t vote because I truly have no idea.

[Kamp Berg]

I didn’t vote because it’s not an option on my iPhone X

[fergiejr]

The poll has closed.

So the most people think BMO will open with butts in the stands in September.

One more thing is shown by this poll: just 49 voters on a issue on which I guess every forum participant would have an opinion.
Which means the forum is read these days regularly by just a handful of guys... pretty sad. I think in better times we would have seen at least 150 voters.

There is some excitement painfully missing around this team.

I think the current situation in Ontario is getting a lot of us down in general. When we start playing regular games we'll see an uptick for sure ... but the non-signings from the club have certainly taken their toll on the excitement level.

[Derko]

My wife and I got our first shot last Monday, Pfizer, our second dose is scheduled for June 26th I believe.

[OgtheDim]

This was discussed yesterday as one reason why a planned Sunday friendly with Inter Miami didn't happen.

Bunch of the team got vaccinated this weekend. (No, there was no sign of DeLeon)

https://twitter.com/TorontoFC/status/1381769847030345732

[Red CB Toronto]

Great to see, video's like this will hopefully help people on the fence for whatever reason to make the choice to get vaccinated. I do really wonder how any team or for that matter any company will deal with an anti vaxer among their group? Then we will have the issues of passports and access in this province and country.


This was discussed yesterday as one reason why a planned Sunday friendly with Inter Miami didn't happen.

Bunch of the team got vaccinated this weekend. (No, there was no sign of DeLeon)

https://twitter.com/TorontoFC/status/1381769847030345732

[MikeForbes]

Being in Nova Scotia I am not as worried about when BMO will be back to full capacity as much as I am just getting the guys back and playing in Canada. Getting everyone vaccinated will definitely help that.

[Auzzy]

Being in Nova Scotia...

Make us all super jealous why don’t you...

;)

Seriously congrats to you guys!

[OgtheDim]

So what a 5 days its been since this thread was last touched.

Current thoughts? (Avoiding the politics of this last week)

Some vaccine hesitancy among the 55-70 crowd & the dumpster fire that is our current medical situation in Ontario makes any thought of home games without fans prior to June now impossible. Gen X being given the go ahead tonight to avail themselves of any AZ out there is going to be a quick boost but I honestly don't think those 500K of AZ are going to last very long.

(If you are reading this and 40-55, find a local pharmacy & phone them ASAP to get a jab - don't trust their online booking systems)

The good news was the Pfizer #'s being significantly boosted - Moderna is a mess but if the #'s hold, we should have a potential 1st jab available for anyone by early June.

I'm still saying August.

[Red CB Toronto]

I got my appointment this evening for the AZ on Wednesday at Sobeys Pharmacy. Had to put in 1956 birth year instead of 1976 as the booking system had to be changed. Figure that will be fixed by Tuesday. Also spoke to the pharmacist at the Yonge Eg. Shoppers and because the book system has not worked, they have been taking walk ins. Have doses on hand and have done very few jabs over the last few day, said if I was 55 they could given me the shot on the spot. I think you are right on August, will be interested to see what the capacity is? 25% would be about 7,500 but could see health officials authorizing even less to begin with.

Anyone see the supporters section at the Miami game today? Now that was scary.


So what a 5 days its been since this thread was last touched.

Current thoughts? (Avoiding the politics of this last week)

Some vaccine hesitancy among the 55-70 crowd & the dumpster fire that is our current medical situation in Ontario makes any thought of home games without fans prior to June now impossible. Gen X being given the go ahead tonight to avail themselves of any AZ out there is going to be a quick boost but I honestly don't think those 500K of AZ are going to last very long.

(If you are reading this and 40-55, find a local pharmacy & phone them ASAP to get a jab - don't trust their online booking systems)

The good news was the Pfizer #'s being significantly boosted - Moderna is a mess but if the #'s hold, we should have a potential 1st jab available for anyone by early June.

I'm still saying August.

[Auzzy]

I was able to book AZ at Sobeys/FreshCo for Wednesday, WOOHOO!!! At 10:40pm they actually accepted my 1967 birth year online. But I'll have to travel a bit to get that, as all the closer appointments were gone online.

Yeah those 700k AZ doses in Ontario will be gone in a flash. Too bad they didn't prioritize the factory & distribution workers & similar hotspots with AZ now. I would have been OK with waiting my turn behind those folks, but that's life in the COVID jungle. Hopefully the US will loan us some more AZ doses, as they still aren't using it, and those things are just going to expire eventually.

Lots of good and bad in the US these days. Numbers look good and vaccines helping in many spots; other states seem to be working on their 4th wave; and some states have mostly stopped testing so we really have no idea what is going on there. Overall the US still had double the COVID death rate per 100k compared with Canada over the past 7 days. Canada COVID death rate increasing gradually; but US death rate not dropping any further despite all those vaccines. Ontario is a dumpster fire now, but I still think late August is doable for limited in-stadium attendance at BMO.

[Red CB Toronto]

I was able to book AZ at Sobeys/FreshCo for Wednesday, WOOHOO!!! At 10:40pm they actually accepted my 1967 birth year online. But I'll have to travel a bit to get that, as all the closer appointments were gone online.

Yeah those 700k AZ doses in Ontario will be gone in a flash. Too bad they didn't prioritize the factory & distribution workers & similar hotspots with AZ now. I would have been OK with waiting my turn behind those folks, but that's life in the COVID jungle. Hopefully the US will loan us some more AZ doses, as they still aren't using it, and those things are just going to expire eventually.

Lots of good and bad in the US these days. Numbers look good and vaccines helping in many spots; other states seem to be working on their 4th wave. Ontario is a dumpster fire now, but I still think late August is doable for limited in-stadium attendance at BMO.

That is great you got an appointment, openings at Sobey's have dried up since the announcement. I will be very interested to see how access to BMO Field will be handled once it does open to limited fans, will vaccination be a requirement. Erie County in New York has announced that those attending Buffalo Bills and Sabres games will have to have been vaccinated. They are able to do this since both facilities are county owned. I am wondering if the city of Toronto will have the same powers with BMO Field since they own it? How will any form of voluntary passport be rolled out and how far will it reach, that will be the big question?

[Canary10]

So what a 5 days its been since this thread was last touched.

Current thoughts? (Avoiding the politics of this last week)

Some vaccine hesitancy among the 55-70 crowd & the dumpster fire that is our current medical situation in Ontario makes any thought of home games without fans prior to June now impossible. Gen X being given the go ahead tonight to avail themselves of any AZ out there is going to be a quick boost but I honestly don't think those 500K of AZ are going to last very long.

(If you are reading this and 40-55, find a local pharmacy & phone them ASAP to get a jab - don't trust their online booking systems)

The good news was the Pfizer #'s being significantly boosted - Moderna is a mess but if the #'s hold, we should have a potential 1st jab available for anyone by early June.

I'm still saying August.

June/July is out at this point. The CDC will have to reverse its travel advisory to Canada before the US opens the border, which won't happen until our cases are way down, and unfortunately we're at the peak at the moment. Michigan is a big worry with about double the vaccination we have and they're on fire.

My daughter's school has had an outbreak. 7 cases before TDSB closed the schools. Since then the daycare which was still open has had 7 out of 10 kids get it, and it's now running through all their families. We had one or two cases three or four times in the school before Christmas, but they never spread. The variants are scary stuff. If Michigan is any indication, I don't think we'll vaccinate out of this in the short term, although we need to vaccinate as fast as possible obviously. I hope the lockdown starts to push the numbers down in the next few weeks.

On the good news front, I got a vaccination appointment already at a Costco with the 40+ AZ change. Hopefully that change unlocks some pent up demand and we have a big surge in vaccinations in the next 1-2 weeks.

I still think we're doing well if TFC is playing at BMO by end of summer and small crowds by October. I still don't think we'll have a full stadium until next year.

One think I'll be watching closely is what happens with fall marathons, like Toronto Waterfront Marathon. I understand they're on the bubble now for whether they go ahead due to the planning needed in advance. They have 10-20,000 person races, so that should give us an early indication of how big events will be handled going forward.

[Red CB Toronto]

For anyone over 40 and looking for a shot, there are 20 Shoppers Drug Marts that are open 24/7 in the GTA that are giving vaccines. Some of them are allowing walk ins including the one at Yonge and Eglinton. Hopefully as more and more people get their shots we will get closer to returning to BMO. I got my first dose today.

https://news.ontario.ca/en/backgrounder/61213/20-shoppers-drug-mart-pharmacies-offering-covid-19-vaccine-247

[OgtheDim]

CFL targetting an August return.

Here's what the CFL is saying about fans in the stand


“So, what must be in place for us to kick off on August 5? Two things. 1. The approval of public health officials across the country of our plans for protecting the health of our players, coaches, and ultimately our fans, so a 2021 season is safe. 2.Permission from governments to host a significant number of fans in the stands, in a significant number of venues at the start of the season, and in the rest of our venues soon after that, so a 2021 season is financially tenable for our clubs.

[Canary10]

CFL targetting an August return.

Here's what the CFL is saying about fans in the stand

So in other words, they can just leave BMO Field fully open for the Argos games?

[glaze]

I strongly doubt we will be back this year. But..... I think the tipping point wont be the Argos, but the Leafs.
If they make a cup run there will be immense pressure to both open the border for home games vs us teams and allow fans.
The next issue will be the vax pass, making it mandatory for attendance (the nfl bills have hinted at this, and it is a requirement for Browns fans going to the draft next week).
We dont seem to act as quickly or decisively here, so it will be interesting how this plays out.

[Red CB Toronto]

I strongly doubt we will be back this year. But..... I think the tipping point wont be the Argos, but the Leafs.
If they make a cup run there will be immense pressure to both open the border for home games vs us teams and allow fans.
The next issue will be the vax pass, making it mandatory for attendance (the nfl bills have hinted at this, and it is a requirement for Browns fans going to the draft next week).
We dont seem to act as quickly or decisively here, so it will be interesting how this plays out.

Erie County has already announced that to attend a Buffalo Bills or Sabres game in 2021-22 you will need to be vaccinated as both facilities are publicly owned. In New York you can have to vaccinated or have a negative test and in that state they already have a voluntary app that you can load you vax records to if you choose and it can be scanned at the gate. Those CDC cards people have been getting in the US could forged with no effort. In this country depending on where you get the shot the documentation can look very different so I would think something universal will need to be produced for those that want one.

[OgtheDim]

Some of you might remember how & why smoking was originally banned in bars & restaurants & outdoor facilities.

Because of how it affected workers who had no choice but to serve you but had to enhale your smoke. The push came from labour laws.

The same thing is likely to happen with Covid vaccines at a public facing workplace - you will have to be vaccinated to provide a safe atmosphere for those who work there.

[Ponderosa]

Some of you might remember how & why smoking was originally banned in bars & restaurants & outdoor facilities.
Because of how it affected workers who had no choice but to serve you but had to enhale your smoke. The push came from labour laws.
The same thing is likely to happen with Covid vaccines at a public facing workplace - you will have to be vaccinated to provide a safe atmosphere for those who work there.

The only thing is that having the vaccine, even both shots - doesn't completely prevent you from catching it and passing it on - then mix in a % of people who simply cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons. My wildest (and likely unrealistic) hope is that the majority are vaccinated and there is a rapid test process before entry is allowed, and even then I think I'd want masks on folks.

[Red CB Toronto]

The only thing is that having the vaccine, even both shots - doesn't completely prevent you from catching it and passing it on - then mix in a % of people who simply cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons. My wildest (and likely unrealistic) hope is that the majority are vaccinated and there is a rapid test process before entry is allowed, and even then I think I'd want masks on folks.

I think you will have to be fully vaccinated at least to begin with to attend things like TFC games. Unfortunately some will not be able to attend because of this unless there is some sort of negative test option in place. I certainly see some sort of voluntary passport app like they have in New York to streamline the process of getting into events.

[leedsandTFC]

The only thing is that having the vaccine, even both shots - doesn't completely prevent you from catching it and passing it on - then mix in a % of people who simply cannot get the vaccine for medical reasons. My wildest (and likely unrealistic) hope is that the majority are vaccinated and there is a rapid test process before entry is allowed, and even then I think I'd want masks on folks.

vaccines kill the spread of this disease, that's the point.

once enough people get vaccinated, the disease will die out.

chances of catching covid outside are already really low, and will essentially be zero once enough people are vaccinated.

[leedsandTFC]

the UK is 63% vaccinated (vast majority only one shot) and scientists downgraded the pandemic to an endemic already there because of the effectiveness of the vaccines.

once we get 80% of adults with antibodies, the pandemic is over.

there will be a completely full bmo field by september, and fans in the stands by mid july.

[Canary10]

the UK is 63% vaccinated (vast majority only one shot) and scientists downgraded the pandemic to an endemic already there because of the effectiveness of the vaccines.

once we get 80% of adults with antibodies, the pandemic is over.

there will be a completely full bmo field by september, and fans in the stands by mid july.

You might want to check the definitions of pandemic and endemic before making this stuff up.

[leedsandTFC]

You might want to check the definitions of pandemic and endemic before making this stuff up.

"Sarah Walker, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at Oxford and Chief Investigator on the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 Infection Survey, said that Britain had ‘moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation’ where the virus is circulating at a low, largely controllable level in the community."

but canary10 know more than an Professor of Epidemiology from Oxford University, of course.

get a grip mate.

[OgtheDim]

One aspect of all this that MIGHT put a bit of a fly into the ointment.

This is spec gaming out a line of thinking based on events of the last week:

ICU's are so strapped right now that if you get a brain aneurysm or in a car crash, your chance of survival has gone way down. This won't recover until September with the long term back up effects on cancelling procedures taking years if not a decade to clear up.


I am pretty darn sure this government thinks "its not all that bad out there" as one MPP, who bizarrly lives across from a Burlington hospital that is sending people to Sudbury because they have no space, said the other day. They already put out "see cases are going down" stuff out yesterday. Now, really, the province should wait until the ICU's get less full & the vaccine rate hits 70% to open up - at the current rate, that might be late May. But...these guys are not going to do that. If case amounts go below 2K, they are going to "let it rip" and hope vaccines finish the job. This is dangerous for a number of reasons because most of us won't get our second does until July right now. Opening up too early is likely to cause a 4th wave among those who didn't vaccinate & already full ICU's are just going to get worse.

That would put back plans to open up by a month if not more.

In those sort of times, the province would shut some things down. The very last thing that should open up in this province is indoor sports events & casinos. Outdoor events are, by all accounts, much safer. BUT..this government is hyper focused on what it sees from the car as it drives by. Literally - listen to Doug sometimes . To them, people congregating outdoors is a problem. They backed down on playgrounds because they got laughed at but notice how they didn't on tennis or golf or, bizarrly mentionned pickleball.

IF we go into a 4th wave, I fully expect them to clamp down on public events.

I hope I'm wrong in this line - I think I might be overestimating stuff so I'm still going to hold onto August. There are reasons to be hopeful, especially with the amount of vaccines coming next month & in June, and in our relative lack of vaccine hesitancy.

But there are potential pitfalls here.

[Canary10]

"Sarah Walker, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at Oxford and Chief Investigator on the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 Infection Survey, said that Britain had ‘moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation’ where the virus is circulating at a low, largely controllable level in the community."

but canary10 know more than an Professor of Epidemiology from Oxford University, of course.

get a grip mate.

The definition of a pandemic is that it is global. An endemic means it is localized in a region. The UK can’t on its own declare that Covid is now localized in one region. I don’t know where you got that quote but it makes no sense!

[ensco]

I actually think the politics of this changed in the last week. There were lots of stories about unhappy PC MPPs. They know that if they open early and we have yet another lockdown, the narrative around Ford pooching this thing will be impossible to escape, and the heat would be unreal.

Both Ford and we the people got what he/we needed, which was Toronto and Peel closing businesses that have multiple cases. He should have long ago, but couldn’t because of his donor base.

I now think we will have a longer lockdown, maybe even into June.

I think games with limited attendance at BMO in July are very possible. Kind of like where California is right now.

[Canary10]

The border is still “closed” which is the main barrier to TFC at least playing games at BMO. The CDC still has travel warnings to Canada. Until that’s lifted nothing happens at BMO. The Blue Jays have already made plans to play in Buffalo to the end of the summer.

The lockdown will for sure go to June. Schools won’t reopen this school year. The idea of having even 3,000 people at a game won’t happen in that context.

[Canary10]

"Sarah Walker, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at Oxford and Chief Investigator on the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 Infection Survey, said that Britain had ‘moved from a pandemic to an endemic situation’ where the virus is circulating at a low, largely controllable level in the community."

but canary10 know more than an Professor of Epidemiology from Oxford University, of course.

get a grip mate.

I see where you got the quote, so apologies for saying you made it up. It's interesting to classify a disease as endemic rather than pandemic without any reference to what is going on in the rest of the world. In parts of Australia they had no cases and didn't use that terminology.

[OgtheDim]

Hmmmm.....

https://twitter.com/kbaxter11/status/1385653211093032960

[JoesphNdo]

I'd be first in line for a vaccination only section in BMO once I was eligible, if that's what it takes to get live football back I'm in. I suspect this may be a reality for this year for events based things until we've true herd immunity

[OgtheDim]

Time to reup this one


..


May games - everybody in the stands is over 80 and lives in a LTCH
June games - add in medical workers & +75
July games - add in 55+ and a few people outside of the the GTA
August - add in 35+



Take out May & June & might be correct.

[Auzzy]

Another interesting wrinkle in this international league: I’ve seen forecasts where Canada passes the US on vaccinations sometime in the summer. With supply issues greatly easing for Canada, the problem becomes the much higher vaccine hesitancy in the US. 37% of “adults” there say they won’t get the vaccine (and 45% of Republicans).

“Vaccine passport” sections solve the problem at least for some fans. The issue for the US, with those vaccination numbers, the pandemic could continue going quite strongly. Plus the US vaccine cards can be faked very easily (and Canada doesn’t even have a uniform format for that). What will that mean for international travel restrictions, stadium capacity in the US, etc? In addition, some red states will likely ban all vaccine requirements, although I’m not sure if they can enforce that in a private stadium. Too bad it has to be so politicized.

[Red CB Toronto]

I'd be first in line for a vaccination only section in BMO once I was eligible, if that's what it takes to get live football back I'm in. I suspect this may be a reality for this year for events based things until we've true herd immunity

I would expect at least early on, all those in attendance would have had to be vaccinated to attend. I would think that will be most likely. A big thing will be AZ doses. The US currently has 20 million doses in reserve and continue to produce it domestically. At this moment in time it’s still no approved for use in the US. I honestly believe the US hopes they never have to approve it. So the question is how many of these unused doses can Canada procure?

[James17930]

But all this is contingent on the border opening, which could still remain closed for so many reasons.

I don't think people should get their hopes up.

[ensco]

But all this is contingent on the border opening, which could still remain closed for so many reasons.

I don't think people should get their hopes up.

Nah that's no biggie. There are going to be “bubbles” forming amongst the countries with strong vax and low case rates. Given vax rates here, and US case/vax rates, US border will re-open earlier than we are talking about. Airlines are pushing May 20, which I doubt, but I do think it'll be June.

The thing that could undo this would be Mexico getting out of control, a la Brazil or India. Mexico has gotten away with a very laissez faire approach, so far.

[James17930]

Nah that's no biggie. There are going to be “bubbles” forming amongst the countries with strong vax and low case rates. Given vax rates here, and US case/vax rates, US border will re-open earlier than we are talking about. Airlines are pushing May 20, which I doubt, but I do think it'll be June.

The thing that could undo this would be Mexico getting out of control, a la Brazil or India. Mexico has gotten away with a very laissez faire approach, so far.

Hopefully. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

[Canary10]

My vaccination appointment today was cancelled. Apparently many pharmacies have run out of AZ. I had another appointment last week and cancelled because it was 45 minutes away whereas this one was ten minutes. I’m bummed!

[OgtheDim]

If you are on twitter, follow these people

@VaxHuntersCan


Do a search within twitter with that twitter handle and your location and see what comes up.


Other option is probably what you used to get something near you already


https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations


Get the list - start calling.


Good news is we get 1.9 million doses in this country this week.

[Canary10]

If you are on twitter, follow these people

@VaxHuntersCan


Do a search within twitter with that twitter handle and your location and see what comes up.


Other option is probably what you used to get something near you already


https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations


Get the list - start calling.


Good news is we get 1.9 million doses in this country this week.

Yeah I’m on all those things. I thought I was good since I had the appointment, just need to get back at it this morning.

[OgtheDim]

I know the feeling - the Hunger games aspect of all this is maddening.

[Cas87]

1.9 million this week then the Pfizer deliveries go up (Ontario averages about 985,000 doses PER WEEK delivered as of next week for the next 2 months).
Plus 300,000 J&Js coming in too
and Biden releasing the US's 60M AZ doses (that they aren't even planning to use -- Although the majority of these will probably go to India specifically then the COVAX system as well).

[ag futbol]

My vaccination appointment today was cancelled. Apparently many pharmacies have run out of AZ. I had another appointment last week and cancelled because it was 45 minutes away whereas this one was ten minutes. I’m bummed!
This is nuts. I temporarily relocated to Nova Scotia at the start of the pandemic and while the nature of this place means it’s a lot less challenging to manage outbreaks than in Ontario, booking a vaccine has been as easy as a few clicks online and showing up on the day. I have heard zero issues about cancellations / shortages.

Guess I won’t be booking my return flight and heading down to BMO in the near future.

[JonO]

I think games with limited attendance at BMO in July are very possible. Kind of like where California is right now.
I like your optimism, but I think it will be interesting considering the different vaccination strategies. Currently, I think California is around 45% with at least one jab and 29% fully vaccinated. The long delay between shots in Canada will result in a higher % with first jabs come July, but I think we will still be way behind the 29% fully vaccinated.

[Red CB Toronto]

I like your optimism, but I think it will be interesting considering the different vaccination strategies. Currently, I think California is around 45% with at least one jab and 29% fully vaccinated. The long delay between shots in Canada will result in a higher % with first jabs come July, but I think we will still be way behind the 29% fully vaccinated.

California has quite a number of unbooked appointments available, vaccine is collecting dust on the shelves figuratively. A real hesitation is starting to set in. I do not expect it to be the same here in Ontario. We just have had a cluster fuck of a vaccine rollout and thus a real case of inequality on many fronts. Take me for example, once those eligible for AZ was lowered to 40 last week I booked an appointment at the Guardian Drugs at Yonge and Davisville within minutes of the announcement. My appointment was for two days later. I was at the pharmacy for all of 20 minutes, walked in at 1:27 , got my shot, sat their for observation and at 1:42 pm my vaccination record was emailed to me. On the other hand people have been lining up fo hours in hopes of getting one. Something need to be fixed.

[Auzzy]

This is nuts. I temporarily relocated to Nova Scotia at the start of the pandemic and while the nature of this place means it’s a lot less challenging to manage outbreaks than in Ontario, booking a vaccine has been as easy as a few clicks online and showing up on the day. I have heard zero issues about cancellations / shortages.

Guess I won’t be booking my return flight and heading down to BMO in the near future.

BTW that vaccine booking system in Nova Scotia was developed by an Ontario company that is quite experienced with things like this. :facepalm:

Oh and an article in the NYT that millions in the US are missing their second vaccine appointments. 8% now and rising. That's in addition to the just under 40% that don't want to get vaccinated it at all. Fingers crossed that lots of PR will help, but too many thinking that this is all over. Chile is an example with one of the highest vaccination rates, and one of the worst COVID situations in the world now. Partly because they used lots of Chinese vax with lower efficacy. Partly because too many want to declare victory in the 75th minute.

[OgtheDim]

FWIW...CDC guidance for fully vaccinated and non-fully vaccinated people just put out today

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ez_tKPCWEAszhTQ?format=jpg&name=medium

[Red CB Toronto]

Also with the province's announcement today that all adults in Ontario will be able to get their first shot by the end of May I certainly believe we are getting closer to things opening up. I will be very interested to see what businesses are able to do in terms of only allowing vaccinated people into their venue and place of business. How far will Ontario go with this. I can not see the Trudeau and company legislating any federal mandates on this subject out of those visiting the country ie travel. Will bars and restraints be able to ask if you have been vaccinated and only allow those that have in?

[OgtheDim]

Just to clarify - the announcement today was people could by the end of the month be able to book an appointment. In some parts of the province, those appointment waits through the provincial system are 3 weeks minimum.

Next week, in theory, they roll out appointment creation to the first group of 18+ working in essential industries - that group is huge, close to 15% of the working population. Lets see how long it takes for those people to get an appointment.

Like, this is all good but the devil is in the details.

[JoesphNdo]

Think we're at around 35% of adults vaccinated, and we're vaccinating just under 1% of adults a day and that rate is set to nearly double if it matches the supply increase. Definitely won't be appointments available for everybody come end of May, but we're very, very close to hitting the point where the US is at now where we've open appointment slots and we're trying to fill them. Certainly, the everyone who wants a vaccine getting one by June 20th timeline now looks very comfortable and is probably padding it by a week or so

[Red CB Toronto]

Will people be able to book an appointment now as long as they are eligible on the day they get their actually shot? I was able to do that with my AZ shot. The website when i booked it through Guardian Drugs still said over 55 when I booked, it two days before the age was official dropped to 40, the same day i got my dose. People will still in my eyes have to look in many different directions.


Just to clarify - the announcement today was people could by the end of the month be able to book an appointment. In some parts of the province, those appointment waits through the provincial system are 3 weeks minimum.

Next week, in theory, they roll out appointment creation to the first group of 18+ working in essential industries - that group is huge, close to 15% of the working population. Lets see how long it takes for those people to get an appointment.

Like, this is all good but the devil is in the details.

[OgtheDim]

Will people be able to book an appointment now as long as they are eligible on the day they get their actually shot? I was able to do that with my AZ shot. The website when i booked it through Guardian Drugs still said over 55 when I booked, it two days before the age was official dropped to 40, the same day i got my dose. People will still in my eyes have to look in many different directions.

There is no guidance as to how exactly this will be done.

In essence what happened today


Province - "Here's the new plan for who can get what shots when"

Every 30-39 Year old in the media - SQUEEEEL ME SOOOOON!!!!!

QP reporters - so we see there are people getting shots sooner

Province - "Yes, because we have more shots"


End scene



Might be a bit more clarification tomorrow but it being a Friday, maybe not.

[tfcfans]

My bet is like a lot of entry requirements for US Stadiums/Arenas, you will need proof of vaccination (X2) to enter, and/or a negative test result within the last “X” days, and everyone will still be required to be masked, with limited capacity. I just can’t see it any other way for this season at least (maybe starting in August/September?!)....or maybe I’m just projecting wishful thoughts, as my second shot is scheduled for the beginning of August, so maybe by mid-August or September I can go to BMO again?!

[Auzzy]

Side note: Pfizer doses now coming to Canada from the US rather than Europe. It seems getting that changed was not as big a deal as previously thought. Apparently the US export restrictions just expired? So far arriving on the same accelerated schedule as recently announced for Pfizer. So no more risk of vaccine exports being blocked by Europe. I’m sticking with my prediction of limited attendance at BMO Field by the end of August.

On the flip side, the European vaccination rate will also increase in the coming weeks. I predict kvetching will increase here yet again in certain circles, seeing how being 2nd or 3rd best in the G20 for over a month also wasn’t enough.

[OgtheDim]

On the flip side, the European vaccination rate will also increase in the coming weeks. I predict kvetching will increase here yet again in certain circles, seeing how being 2nd or 3rd best in the G20 for over a month also wasn’t enough.

The chart put out by the National Post that shows us 33rd in "fully vaccinated" is always funny because it compares us to the "nation" of Gibralter which has less people in it then Georgetown.

This country made a conscious decision to vaccinate more people once instead of vaccinating less people fully. That choice was made across political lines. And yet, people of a certain political persuasion are trying to use the lack of people fully vaccinated as a cudgel against another political persuasion. Its duplicitious & easily seen to be partisan. I have no time right now for partisan games.

4.76 % of the population got a vaccine in the last week (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=table&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-04-23..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=AUT~DEU~USA~EuropeanUnion~ITA~FRA~ESP~CAN~ GBR)


We keep going

[Red CB Toronto]

Canada Will Require Using A Vaccine Passport For Entry

https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2021/05/01/canada-will-require-a-vaccine-passport-for-entry/?sh=53467dc01a71&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainFB&utm_medium=social&utm_source=ForbesMainFacebook&fbclid=IwAR03CN7_tn7h3BgYs0aLU3mhzBljyYj3DZhDG-ceGjZbLVHdz-zKg6PBlFQ

[Oldtimer]

The chart put out by the National Post that shows us 33rd in "fully vaccinated" is always funny because it compares us to the "nation" of Gibralter which has less people in it then Georgetown.

This country made a conscious decision to vaccinate more people once instead of vaccinating less people fully. That choice was made across political lines. And yet, people of a certain political persuasion are trying to use the lack of people fully vaccinated as a cudgel against another political persuasion. Its duplicitious & easily seen to be partisan. I have no time right now for partisan games.

4.76 % of the population got a vaccine in the last week (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?tab=table&zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-04-23..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=AUT~DEU~USA~EuropeanUnion~ITA~FRA~ESP~CAN~ GBR)


We keep going

Partisanship aside, as the US CDC made it very clear last week, people are not "vaccinated" and can't relax restrictions until they have had two doses. That CDC guidance is based on solid science. Now we are catching up on vaccinations - even with the shortage of AZ vaccine from India, and it looks like most people will be able to get a second shot by August. So bums in seats at BMO looks more likely for September than before then.

[OgtheDim]

Just to add to the discussion point

England is looking at when to open up & outdoor sports is one of the last to go to full capacity based on the amount of people who take public transport to & from the stadiums.


I'm remembering the tunnel to Liberty village after a match & all I could think was :yikes:

[Richard]

So this going to be a yearly shot for the foreseeable future?

Just waiting for the shoe to drop when governments say not enough people are vaccinated, things will never get to normal for some people if there is even a single case.

[Canary10]

Just to add to the discussion point

England is looking at when to open up & outdoor sports is one of the last to go to full capacity based on the amount of people who take public transport to & from the stadiums.


I'm remembering the tunnel to Liberty village after a match & all I could think was :yikes:

Their current plan is to open the final two games of the season to supporters. They rejigged the schedule already to allow for it.

[Red CB Toronto]

Does this come into the Canadian government's mindset when considering when to open the border and their approach to what measures will be in play when travel resumes?
https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/179951764_10152672619714999_4773846821194823730_n. jpg?_nc_cat=1&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=9267fe&_nc_eui2=AeHbMA_E9k7J1zRZtrbgHx6Kwvd32Iie0GjC93fYi J7QaEXASkGi2YnzbrimZJqs2xM&_nc_ohc=Q1sqN0eVWJUAX-PY0T7&_nc_ht=scontent-yyz1-1.xx&oh=c38bdb9ee72084a6efe3f07c47f01b6c&oe=60B4B71D

[Auzzy]

Wow Red CB, I haven't seen those number on a map before! I think both the US and Cdn government will be looking at that carefully.

Another way to look at the numbers: the US is now hoping to deliver at least one shot to 70 per cent of adult Americans by July Fourth. In the US, the issue is both outright anti-vax sentiment for some, and simple procrastination or disinterest by others, especially younger people. Case numbers are down right now in many areas of the US; many of these people were never that personally concerned (rightly or wrongly).

In Ontario and most of Canada, they're hoping to get at least one shot to 80% of adults by around June 20th. Right now the US has given at least one shot to 45% of the population; in Canada that number is now 35%. Many models show Canada passing the US in that metric within a few weeks. Let's see if Canada also reaches a point of lower uptake before reaching 80% of adults, but surveys say there's a lower level of vaccine hesitancy here.

I realize the real goal is fully vaccinated / two shots, which will take longer in Canada. But if people aren't even getting their first shot, they're not getting their second either. At least in the US, those are numbers which present serious issues for large crowded events like sports & concerts. Also the risk of a slow burn, with an ongoing relatively high level of infection, and a huge risk of even more problematic disease variants evolving, some of which will be a problem even for the vaccinated. Especially as remaining public health measures will soon disappear or be ignored.

Hopefully both the US and Canada can convince more people to get vaccinated to get a handle on the situation. Vaccine passports are being discussed in many countries. I don't understand how they should work. The US CDC cards are easily faked. In Canada, we're receiving a variety of documentation when we're vaccinated; it's not even uniform. For anyone who is seriously anti-vax, it seems like it would be easy to get around these things with a fake document, especially if they will be required for things like sporting events or crossing the border???

EDIT I got that number of 45% with at least one shot in the US from https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/ Now I've seen other numbers in an article, that 56% have at least one shot in the US. I don't know what's up with that.

[OgtheDim]

This is the best place to see vaccine stats (https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-02..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=true&country=DEU~USA~EuropeanUnion~ITA~FRA~ESP~CAN~SWE~ GBR)



The UK is doing this differently in that they are rolling out free rapid tests to anybody that wants one - they are going for covid Zero. A lot of people in the US seem to think Covid is over. Canada is in danger of that thinking as well as much of the media class either has a 1st shot or will be able to schedule a 1st shot in the next 3 weeks. I worry that Ontario is going to open up too early - this government has form for bowing to pressure about long weekends.

The fact Alberta is a dumpster fire (still not closing retail even though rates per 100K are equivalent to India) is unfortunately going to affect how Canada & the US interact on all this.

[Canary10]

There was a CBC article this morning with speculation the border won't open until late summer or fall. Apparently the current border regime is set to be renewed on May 21 - all the expectation is it will be renewed. Doesn't help the Premier is out there pushing for tighter borders at the moment (as a way to deflect blame back to the feds). I see the Blue Jays are starting their first home stand in Buffalo. Getting TFC back to BMO is the first step but I can't see that happening until September at the earliest based on the border situation.

Those numbers Red CB posted are worrisome. Opens the potential of another wave in the US in September/October.

[glaze]

Honestly I dont see them putting vaccine passports into place.
We will just be attending BMO trusting that people have their vax.
We still have flights landing with covid infections, we have people openly gaming the system by flying to a border city and walking or driving across. We have people at airports openly refusing the hotel.
There is no way to ensure everyone at BMO or the pub before or the ttc go train etc is vaccinated. Because nothing of that nature seems to have been enforced to date.

[Auzzy]

Honestly I dont see them putting vaccine passports into place.
We will just be attending BMO trusting that people have their vax.
We still have flights landing with covid infections, we have people openly gaming the system by flying to a border city and walking or driving across. We have people at airports openly refusing the hotel.
There is no way to ensure everyone at BMO or the pub before or the ttc go train etc is vaccinated. Because nothing of that nature seems to have been enforced to date.

The Blue Jays will be playing the rest of the season in Buffalo. New York currently allows 24% capacity at that venue, around 4,000 of the 16,600 seats. Fans aged three and older must present proof of full vaccination or a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours of the game in order to attend Jays games. With the US generally being more lax with things like that, I don't see why something similar couldn't be implemented here. Consider also that there may be liability issues otherwise for the venue or the event organizer.

[Red CB Toronto]

I am pretty sure we we see some sort of voluntary vaccine passport in place simply because of travel and what other countries will require for those visiting from aboard. The big question in my mind will be here at home and what business's will be allowed to do in terms of asking customers/attendees if they are fully vaccinated? Going to sporting events and concerts is totally discretionary and as such its your choice if you want to go or not. In this situation could having your jabs be a requirement of attendance.

Will bars and restaurants be able to choose if they only want to serve those that have been vaccinated for peace of mind of both staff and customers?

New York for instates has created an app that is completely voluntary and you can use when attending sporting events that require it. It will also go a long way in re-opening Broadway. I know some states have completely made it illegal for any business to ask if you have got your shot(s) but I think here in Canada we will find a balance between privacy, safety and choice.


Honestly I dont see them putting vaccine passports into place.
We will just be attending BMO trusting that people have their vax.
We still have flights landing with covid infections, we have people openly gaming the system by flying to a border city and walking or driving across. We have people at airports openly refusing the hotel.
There is no way to ensure everyone at BMO or the pub before or the ttc go train etc is vaccinated. Because nothing of that nature seems to have been enforced to date.

[OgtheDim]

And the feds just talked about an international travel standard for vaccinations

PAYWALL star story (https://www.thestar.com/politics/2021/05/05/canada-supports-common-platform-to-recognize-vaccine-status-of-travellers-alghabra.html)

[glaze]

I'm just genuinely curious how it plays out. Obviously we all want to be back at BMO, and safely. But health canada just approved the vax for ages 12 and up, so will MLSE require a vax pass for kids as well?
As I doubt we will be back to full capacity before 2022, there is a lot of time to figure this out. Surely other leagues will establish a system first.

[Red CB Toronto]

Having at least 70% is what is needed to reach herd immunity in the US according to John Hopkins's School of Public Health. It will have to overcome some hesitancy and indifference for that matter to reach it. On the map I posted you certainly see the parts of the US where people are getting their shots over areas where less people are.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html



Wow Red CB, I haven't seen those number on a map before! I think both the US and Cdn government will be looking at that carefully.

Another way to look at the numbers: the US is now hoping to deliver at least one shot to 70 per cent of adult Americans by July Fourth. In the US, the issue is both outright anti-vax sentiment for some, and simple procrastination or disinterest by others, especially younger people. Case numbers are down right now in many areas of the US; many of these people were never that personally concerned (rightly or wrongly).

In Ontario and most of Canada, they're hoping to get at least one shot to 80% of adults by around June 20th. Right now the US has given at least one shot to 45% of the population; in Canada that number is now 35%. Many models show Canada passing the US in that metric within a few weeks. Let's see if Canada also reaches a point of lower uptake before reaching 80% of adults, but surveys say there's a lower level of vaccine hesitancy here.

I realize the real goal is fully vaccinated / two shots, which will take longer in Canada. But if people aren't even getting their first shot, they're not getting their second either. At least in the US, those are numbers which present serious issues for large crowded events like sports & concerts. Also the risk of a slow burn, with an ongoing relatively high level of infection, and a huge risk of even more problematic disease variants evolving, some of which will be a problem even for the vaccinated. Especially as remaining public health measures will soon disappear or be ignored.

Hopefully both the US and Canada can convince more people to get vaccinated to get a handle on the situation. Vaccine passports are being discussed in many countries. I don't understand how they should work. The US CDC cards are easily faked. In Canada, we're receiving a variety of documentation when we're vaccinated; it's not even uniform. For anyone who is seriously anti-vax, it seems like it would be easy to get around these things with a fake document, especially if they will be required for things like sporting events or crossing the border???

EDIT I got that number of 45% with at least one shot in the US from https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/ Now I've seen other numbers in an article, that 56% have at least one shot in the US. I don't know what's up with that.

[Oldtimer]

So one shot only of Pfizer close to useless against the B.1.1.7 variant, which makes up 90% of Ontario cases. So no serious opening up can happen until everyone gets two shots.

https://torontosun.com/news/study-single-pfizer-dose-only-30-effective-against-u-k-variant-so-spacing-is-riskier

[leedsandTFC]

So one shot only of Pfizer close to useless against the B.1.1.7 variant, which makes up 90% of Ontario cases. So no serious opening up can happen until everyone gets two shots.

https://torontosun.com/news/study-single-pfizer-dose-only-30-effective-against-u-k-variant-so-spacing-is-riskier

end of august then, sounds good.

[noxx98]

So one shot only of Pfizer close to useless against the B.1.1.7 variant, which makes up 90% of Ontario cases. So no serious opening up can happen until everyone gets two shots.

https://torontosun.com/news/study-single-pfizer-dose-only-30-effective-against-u-k-variant-so-spacing-is-riskier
Don't want to make this topic into a COVID debate topic, however the author of this study discussed how Qatar had a three week timespan between dose 1 and dose 2, with very few people delaying dose 2. The author noted that many of the individuals who tested positive for COVID likely had it prior to dose 1 and the study should not be interpreted as a meaningful study on the efficacy of a single dose vs. two doses, other than that two doses is obviously better than two.

https://twitter.com/supermarioelia/status/1390362358971781122

[Auzzy]

So one shot only of Pfizer close to useless against the B.1.1.7 variant, which makes up 90% of Ontario cases. So no serious opening up can happen until everyone gets two shots.

https://torontosun.com/news/study-single-pfizer-dose-only-30-effective-against-u-k-variant-so-spacing-is-riskier

Oldtimer that article is a crock. It totally misrepresents the results. As noxx98 noted, some of the infected likely had the infection before their first dose. The study also included infections that occurred within 14 days of the first dose, when immunity has not yet developed and is not expected.

https://twitter.com/CityCynthia/status/1390421296731889666

In the real world, the UK did extremely well with a delayed 2nd dose strategy, including Pfizer. The B.1.1.7 variant is from there, so those results are obviously relevant for Canada. With increasing vaccine supplies, the 2nd dose will likely be accelerated for the oldest and the immune-compromised, which is where the only real risk lies according to multiple studies.

[leedsandTFC]

please refrain from posting bunk science in the BOM opening thread, please and thank you.

[OgtheDim]

A lot of people got a lot of jabs this week.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1390452217333747713

&

We are on pace to match the US % for vaccinated later this month


https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1390451317756375041

[Auzzy]

Wow that's encouraging. And the big Pfizer delivery (plus 1 million Moderna) only rolled in partway through this week. The next weeks should be dynamite.

[Redcoe15]

A lot of people got a lot of jabs this week.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1390452217333747713

&

We are on pace to match the US % for vaccinated later this month


https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1390451317756375041

My brother is having problems trying to book an appointment for his first shot.

[Oldtimer]

Oldtimer that article is a crock. It totally misrepresents the results. As noxx98 noted, some of the infected likely had the infection before their first dose. The study also included infections that occurred within 14 days of the first dose, when immunity has not yet developed and is not expected.

https://twitter.com/CityCynthia/status/1390421296731889666

In the real world, the UK did extremely well with a delayed 2nd dose strategy, including Pfizer. The B.1.1.7 variant is from there, so those results are obviously relevant for Canada. With increasing vaccine supplies, the 2nd dose will likely be accelerated for the oldest and the immune-compromised, which is where the only real risk lies according to multiple studies.

Good to know. I've had one shot of Pfizer myself, my son and daughter in law just got it today, and my daughter will get Pfizer or Moderna next week.

Hoping to be at some games at BMO this fall!

[OgtheDim]

My brother is having problems trying to book an appointment for his first shot.

Depending upon the criteria, people are booking into June but a LOT of people in Toronto & environs are now using the popups (if they qualify).

As you might know, best place to see tips on where & how is via the twitter handle @VaxhuntersCan . Do a search for that followed either by first 3 digits of a postal code or a town/municipality/county and you will usually see what has been available.

[Yuushalinsky]

I, too, have received my first shot! Moderna here.

[Auzzy]

Good to know. I've had one shot of Pfizer myself, my son and daughter in law just got it today, and my daughter will get Pfizer or Moderna next week.

Hoping to be at some games at BMO this fall!

Congrats on the shots!

Select pharmacies are now vaccinating everyone 18+, that was announced tonight!

We just snagged an appointment online for my son at Walmart, but it was cancelled a moment later, argh... (We're not in a hotspot.) Now we have him on a couple of waitlists. His girlfriend got her shot yesterday due to hotspot postal code. She found that due to @VaxhuntersCan -- I think they deserve the Order of Canada or something like that!

Neither my wife nor I have died from our AZ shots yet so that's good. My daughter will soon feel all left out as she's 16 and not yet eligible. :D

[Oldtimer]

Neither my wife nor I have died from our AZ shots yet so that's good. My daughter will soon feel all left out as she's 16 and not yet eligible. :D

Congrats on getting the vaccine.

[leedsandTFC]

**Vaccine expansion klaxon**

Some pharmacies around the GTA are administering vaccines to everyone 18+. Great news, will be getting mine this week!

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/vaccine-locations

[OgtheDim]

Inter Miami going full stadium later this month

https://twitter.com/nicocantor1/status/1392176863544479745

[Oldtimer]

Inter Miami going full stadium later this month

https://twitter.com/nicocantor1/status/1392176863544479745

Cool. Shows us our future (which is running about 3-4 months behind FLA for being fully vaccinated).

[leedsandTFC]

https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1392120217032081411

more adults in ontario have been at least partially vaccinated than not, and on course for 80% of adults fully vaccinated by early september (although herd immunity is significantly before this).

good to see progress being made!

[OgtheDim]

So September it seems....


https://twitter.com/GurdeepA/status/1393157349616009217

[ensco]

The thing that could move things along is a Leaf playoff run. The Leafs playing Stanley Cup finals games in front of 20,000 on the road and zero fans at home? With the numbers better?

There is nobody on earth who could withstand that pressure.

[OgtheDim]

Indoor is not going to happen - its too dangerous. No way they open up the ACC for a Leafs game.

As the % of fully vaccinated grows, there will be pressure to open up events to a smaller crowd - outdoor will be first.


I suspect sports events on a case by case basis will be pleading a strong case by mid August.

[OgtheDim]

And then there is the fun that comes from being fully vaccinated but because you get tested all the time, having 8 members of your team get covid (https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/05/13/covid-19-outbreak-among-8-fully-vaccinated-members-of-ny-yankee-organization-implications-for-cdc-guidance-on-masking/?sh=46a413b43412)

[Red CB Toronto]

So September it seems....


https://twitter.com/GurdeepA/status/1393157349616009217

I would not necessarily use the canceling of those events as to when a limited crowd could attend a TFC game as the decision to cancel all these events would have logistical/deadlines etc. The big thing now will be the pushing up of those who took AZ being fully vaccinated. A lot of younger people , at least the 40+ plus crowd will get their second shots say by the end of June/July, even earlier is some cases which could let MLSE choose to play a game with fully vaccinated crowd with those that actually may want to be there.

cloud the Leafs play a Stanley Cup Final with a fully vaccinated limited crowd , possibly, well they would be the pressure too as it this would be happen, good luck trying to keep people out of the streets. As we all know a lot will have to happen for this to take place, both on the ice and off, but we can dream.

[leedsandTFC]

So September it seems....


https://twitter.com/GurdeepA/status/1393157349616009217

these events have huge costs associated with them and months of planning, etc, so can't afford for there to be any risk of not going ahead.

sports games are much shorter notice, not months of planning needed for each game.

[Cas87]

So September it seems....


https://twitter.com/GurdeepA/status/1393157349616009217


I would not necessarily use the canceling of those events as to when a limited crowd could attend a TFC game as the decision to cancel all these events would have logistical/deadlines etc. The big thing now will be the pushing up of those who took AZ being fully vaccinated. A lot of younger people , at least the 40+ plus crowd will get their second shots say by the end of June/July, even earlier is some cases which could let MLSE choose to play a game with fully vaccinated crowd with those that actually may want to be there.

cloud the Leafs play a Stanley Cup Final with a fully vaccinated limited crowd , possibly, well they would be the pressure too as it this would be happen, good luck trying to keep people out of the streets. As we all know a lot will have to happen for this to take place, both on the ice and off, but we can dream.


The cancellations are for those events that require City permits in order to operate -- TFC is not normally associated with this as BMO field while in Exhibition Place is operated by MLSE (they just work out a deal around the CNE every year).
TFC and the Jays are all dependent on the Province and Feds giving cross boarder exemptions based upon an number of things (including for example; vaccination rate of those that would be in a travelling party for TFC, average vaccination rates of the visiting teams, plan for those visiting teams once they arrive in Toronto and certain restrictions specific to TFC when they first get home like only travelling to the training ground and BMO field for their initial return quarantine)

[Joe Kool]

A lot of younger people , at least the 40+ plus crowd will get their second shots say by the end of June/July

Really? Wow. In Durham region, people that are getting vaccinated now, like my daughter a couple days ago, in the 18+ hotspot category don't have their second dose scheduled until beginning of September. They haven't even given the first dose to the main 18+ population if you are not in a hotspot. For the general population, only the chronically ill and 60+ category in Durham will have both shots by end of July.

[OgtheDim]

I agree with people that events are being cancelled vs. a game being a one off.


Home games outdoors behind closed doors MIGHT happen in June but there is a poltical tinge to that because the PCPO is currently all in on "keep the borders closed" (its never really been closed & isn't going to but...rhetoric). Hard to say that & also say "But not for sports"



FWIW, TFC has TBD on home dates for June 19th & June 26th, both against US based teams.

[Canary10]

I agree with people that events are being cancelled vs. a game being a one off.


Home games outdoors behind closed doors MIGHT happen in June but there is a poltical tinge to that because the PCPO is currently all in on "keep the borders closed" (its never really been closed & isn't going to but...rhetoric). Hard to say that & also say "But not for sports"



FWIW, TFC has TBD on home dates for June 19th & June 26th, both against US based teams.

There will be a decision on the current border arrangement by May 21 (I think that's the date the current arrangement is set to expire). The expectation is that it will be renewed.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/when-canada-us-border-reopen-1.6007645

[Auzzy]

Really? Wow. In Durham region, people that are getting vaccinated now, like my daughter a couple days ago, in the 18+ hotspot category don't have their second dose scheduled until beginning of September. They haven't even given the first dose to the main 18+ population if you are not in a hotspot. For the general population, only the chronically ill and 60+ category in Durham will have both shots by end of July.

Based on the number of doses coming in, I predict 2nd shots will start being accelerated in June and July. We will also reach a point where vaccine uptake slows down. We'll do better than the US on average, but you hit a % point where the remainder are much harder to reach. (For example, in Toronto only 71% of the 80+ have been vaccinated.) The delivery numbers will go up even more starting June, but the demand for first shots will start levelling off. I don't know when they'll be all done, but those appointments for 2nd doses are not set in stone.

[Auzzy]

Further to the above: Pfizer is accelerating its deliveries to Canada. We'll receive 3.4 million Pfizer doses next week, instead of the anticipated 2 million. Including Moderna, we'll be receiving a total of 4.5 million doses in the week (although you never know about Moderna, LOL).

[Red CB Toronto]

Based on the number of doses coming in, I predict 2nd shots will start being accelerated in June and July. We will also reach a point where vaccine uptake slows down. We'll do better than the US on average, but you hit a % point where the remainder are much harder to reach. (For example, in Toronto only 71% of the 80+ have been vaccinated.) The delivery numbers will go up even more starting June, but the demand for first shots will start levelling off. I don't know when they'll be all done, but those appointments for 2nd doses are not set in stone.

As someone who got my first AZ shot on April 20th, the first day the 40+ crowd could get one I am going to be very interested to see how appointments are handled. Many pharmacies were not allowed to book second appointments at the time you got your first dose. There are about 850,000 people in Ontario(apron 2.3M in Canada) who got it as their first dose. The national advisory committee on immunization has recommended that those who want to take AZ as their second shot rather than mixing should be allowed to and as such the Ontario government is evaluating how they want to proceed. I fully expect them to allow those that want to take it as their second dose.

When the halt happened in Ontario on Tuesday their were about 50,000 doses in circulation, which expire at the end of the month and very little interest from anyone for taking it as their first dose, especially with the expanded rollout of the mRNA vaccines this week. I know of few pharmacies that have their stock in freezers and would have happily given me or or anyone a second dose if the OHIP system allowed for it rather than risk it going to waist. With another 650,000 AZ doses having arrived in Canada this week that expire by the end of August so the opportunity to have the AZ (heck every time I say that I think of the Dutch football team LOL) crowd fully vaccinated will come sooner than later once the ball gets rolling, even at the end of the day it will maybe only make up about 10% or so of all Canadians fully vaccinated with whatever they have taken.

The nation that Christine Elliott mentioning that Ontario could see expired doses of AZ is something that should be avoided at all costs.

[Auzzy]

Yeah my wife & I are hoping that they’ll let us take our 2nd AZ shot soon. Although I’ll still wait 10-12 weeks from the first one, as it’s more effective that way.

[OgtheDim]

Confirmation that professional sports teams are not part of the city ban

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2021/05/14/theres-a-glimmer-of-hope-the-jays-could-return-to-toronto-this-year-but-nothing-is-imminent.html


Toronto’s decision did not extend to professional sports events, which rely on permissions from the provincial and federal governments in addition to Toronto Public Health, the city said in a release.

[glaze]

I agree the Leafs are going to be what opens everything up.
The states are falling like dominos. Every day a new team announces full capacity, with the only restriction that non vaccinated should be masked (no idea how that will be enforced).
The leafs will likely start with a limited crowd of nurses, covid front line workers etc for PR. Then increase. Once a cup final hits people will flood the streets, and bars will be desperate for the revenue.
Also, the CFL needs fans for an August start.
I think the question moreso is what restrictions will MLSE put in place. Will only vaccinated fans be permitted? Will seats be spread out? Also for SSH, will it be optional, or will tix be mandatory?

[Red CB Toronto]

I think for the TFC at whatever point they do return in 2021 tickets will be optional for SSHs as I believe capacity will be limited out of the gate. It will be a mixed bag for what each and every person wants to do. Some were ready to go back yesterday, others will want to wait. I think Ontario will allow business to decide if they want to only serve, entertain at least for discretionary things like bars, restaurants, sporting events, concerts etc. its already happening in New York and has proved to be quite popular with patrons. To do this at least domestically there will be some sort of voluntary passport made available.


I agree the Leafs are going to be what opens everything up.
The states are falling like dominos. Every day a new team announces full capacity, with the only restriction that non vaccinated should be masked (no idea how that will be enforced).
The leafs will likely start with a limited crowd of nurses, covid front line workers etc for PR. Then increase. Once a cup final hits people will flood the streets, and bars will be desperate for the revenue.
Also, the CFL needs fans for an August start.
I think the question moreso is what restrictions will MLSE put in place. Will only vaccinated fans be permitted? Will seats be spread out? Also for SSH, will it be optional, or will tix be mandatory?

[Canary10]

Article on re-opening the border. We'll know this week if there are any changes to what we have now. We won't be playing any home games at BMO (with or without supporters) until it changes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-14/trudeau-government-begins-work-on-reopening-u-s-canada-border

[Auzzy]

Article on re-opening the border. We'll know this week if there are any changes to what we have now. We won't be playing any home games at BMO (with or without supporters) until it changes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-14/trudeau-government-begins-work-on-reopening-u-s-canada-border

Wow I hope they don’t base their decisions on the numbers in the Bloomberg article. Their vaccination stats are way off. 45.8% of the Cdn population has had at least one shot (the article say 34%), and we’ll pass the US on that stat in 3 days and keep going higher. Some other info in the article is also wrong, as well as in the Bloomberg data tracker that they link to.

I know that fully vaccinated may be the more important stat for border reopening & vaccine passports, but Canada will likely pass the US on that in July.

Pro sports teams (tested & mostly vaxed) can be allowed to travel when case & hospital numbers are lower and vaccination numbers are higher, not necessarily tied to a general border reopening. They may ease things gradually before a general opening for all tourism for example. Plus things will get much more muddy as some regions in the US will continue to have very low vaccination numbers, high cases (if they bother testing) and high deaths. It won’t be an easy black & white decision.

[Canary10]

Wow I hope they don’t base their decisions on the numbers in the Bloomberg article. Their vaccination stats are way off. 45.8% of the Cdn population has had at least one shot (the article say 34%), and we’ll pass the US on that stat in 3 days and keep going higher. Some other info in the article is also wrong, as well as in the Bloomberg data tracker that they link to.

I know that fully vaccinated may be the more important stat for border reopening & vaccine passports, but Canada will likely pass the US on that in July.

Pro sports teams (tested & mostly vaxed) can be allowed to travel when case & hospital numbers are lower and vaccination numbers are higher, not necessarily tied to a general border reopening. They may ease things gradually before a general opening for all tourism for example. Plus things will get much more muddy as some regions in the US will continue to have very low vaccination numbers, high cases (if they bother testing) and high deaths. It won’t be an easy black & white decision.

I doubt they'd make a decision based on those numbers, lol! Actually, I saw the same article in the National Post (not sure who was the originating author of the story), which has had an agenda of downplaying any vaccine success in Canada, so I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers they cite are intentional BS.

I think the thing is border opening will be a process. Everything I've read suggests we've still at the beginning stages, and the decision coming this week likely will be to renew what we currently have. Sure sports teams could be exempt, but that would still require an exemption to the current border regime which sounds a ways off still, or at least hasn't been telegraphed in any way. Anyway, we should know more by Friday.

[Red CB Toronto]

To open the border , making it only for fully vaccinated people, you will avoid a lot of the issues. Heck the US would even help by getting those those that travel into the US by getting them their second doses upon arrival, it's even happening now in places like Florida or anywhere with doses that are collecting dust. Pharmacies are getting to the point where they have more does than they know what to do with, epically in some parts of the country.

Also you do have to remember in even in the best of times , not a lot of Americans even travel to Canada over a single year. The number of United States citizens traveling to Canada increased steadily from 2014 to 2019, rising from 11.5 million to almost 15 million. Overall, the number of U.S. travelers to Canada peaked at approximately 16 million in 2002.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/214778/number-of-us-tourists-visting-canada/

The biggest thing to me will be the passport and how you prove that you have been fully vaccinated at least for the US, because those CDC cards that everyone has will not hold up as my eyes as an official document to other countries. New York already has a voluntary app in place. Most records of vaccinations are being held at the country level in the US where Ontario for the most part would know who has their shots through the ministry of health. Just not sure how its kept if an OHIP card was not shown.


Wow I hope they don’t base their decisions on the numbers in the Bloomberg article. Their vaccination stats are way off. 45.8% of the Cdn population has had at least one shot (the article say 34%), and we’ll pass the US on that stat in 3 days and keep going higher. Some other info in the article is also wrong, as well as in the Bloomberg data tracker that they link to.

I know that fully vaccinated may be the more important stat for border reopening & vaccine passports, but Canada will likely pass the US on that in July.

Pro sports teams (tested & mostly vaxed) can be allowed to travel when case & hospital numbers are lower and vaccination numbers are higher, not necessarily tied to a general border reopening. They may ease things gradually before a general opening for all tourism for example. Plus things will get much more muddy as some regions in the US will continue to have very low vaccination numbers, high cases (if they bother testing) and high deaths. It won’t be an easy black & white decision.

[Red CB Toronto]

An interesting read from the Angus Reid Institute.


https://angusreid.org/canada-astrazeneca-herd-immunity/

[eustacchio]

An interesting read from the Angus Reid Institute.


https://angusreid.org/canada-astrazeneca-herd-immunity/


"Daddy?"


"Yes, son?"


"What does regret mean?"

But seriously, I'm curious how many levels of regret there were ("A mere two per cent of this group expresses total regret"). Maybe it says so in there, and I just didn't see it.

[trane]

Whatever day it ends up being, I am dreaming of it.

[Redcoe15]

Can't wait to get my second shot. Unfortunately, it won't be until August when I can get it. If there's a way to get it sooner, I'll take it. And once the worst is over, I plan on going on a nice vacation somewheres. I'm thinking New Orleans!

BTW, my brother, who was having difficulties getting an appointment, got his first shot last Wednesday!

[Auzzy]

My mother-in-law just got called to get her second shot booked, in early June! I have to check how long it will be, but less than 16 weeks since the first shot. Granted that’s in Guelph and they’ve been well-organized since the start. But it’s happening!

Also a colleague at work managed to get early second shots booked for his whole family, I have to find it more about that.

[Red CB Toronto]

My mother-in-law just got called to get her second shot booked, in early June! I have to check how long it will be, but less than 16 weeks since the first shot. Granted that’s in Guelph and they’ve been well-organized since the start. But it’s happening!

Thats interesting, in what environment did she get her first shot and was a second shot initially scheduled for a later date and then pushed up? For the AZ crowd there are about 50,000 doses in the province that will be expiring at the end of the month so the braintrust or whatever you want to call them will have to decide shortly if they are going to give people a a decision to make for themselves, depending on wha their are comfortable with. I just do not think Ford and company want the optics of expired doses in this province. Kind of surprised David Williams even mentioned the province would not give people expired doses, thats a no brainer to me.

[Auzzy]

Thats interesting, in what environment did she get her first shot and was a second shot initially scheduled for a later date and then pushed up? For the AZ crowd there are about 50,000 doses in the province that will be expiring at the end of the month so the braintrust or whatever you want to call them will have to decide shortly if they are going to give people a a decision to make for themselves, depending on wha their are comfortable with. I just do not think Ford and company want the optics of expired doses in this province. Kind of surprised David Williams even mentioned the province would not give people expired doses, thats a no brainer to me.

She received her first shot in a vaccine clinic run by Wellington/Guelph public health, and will receive the 2nd there. I'm not sure of exact dates, but I think it will be about 12 weeks since the first shot, which is good for someone who is over 80. (A major UK study has found a better immune response for Pfizer in the elderly when the two doses are 12 weeks apart.) Hopefully that will soon becomes the norm, starting with the oldest. I'm not sure if she initially had a later 2nd appointment which was changed, I will try to find out from my sister in law.

They should definitely start offering those 50k doses of AZ as second shots to the first people who received AZ, which started about 2 1/2 months / over 10 weeks ago. That's a good timespan.

[MightyDM]

The thing that could move things along is a Leaf playoff run. The Leafs playing Stanley Cup finals games in front of 20,000 on the road and zero fans at home? With the numbers better?

There is nobody on earth who could withstand that pressure.

Good point. Governments regularly plan for all sorts of improbable but possible events.

[Red CB Toronto]

She received her first shot in a vaccine clinic run by Wellington/Guelph public health, and will receive the 2nd there. I'm not sure of exact dates, but I think it will be about 12 weeks since the first shot, which is good for someone who is over 80. (A major UK study has found a better immune response for Pfizer in the elderly when the two doses are 12 weeks apart.) Hopefully that will soon becomes the norm, starting with the oldest. I'm not sure if she initially had a later 2nd appointment which was changed, I will try to find out from my sister in law.

They should definitely start offering those 50k doses of AZ as second shots to the first people who received AZ, which started about 2 1/2 months / over 10 weeks ago. That's a good timespan.

Friday, March 12th was the first day AZ was given in Ontario when they started giving it at 325 pharmacies in Toronto, Peel and Kingston. My uncle who lives in Ottawa got his first shot in Kingston that weekend.

I would very interested to know if she did have a second appointment that was changed pushed up, it would indicate the province or at least the local health unit is pushing people up, thus they can push it through OHIP.

[MightyDM]

Friday, March 12th was the first day AZ was given in Ontario when they started giving it at 325 pharmacies in Toronto, Peel and Kingston. My uncle who lives in Ottawa got his first shot in Kingston that weekend.

I would very interested to know if she did have a second appointment that was changed pushed up, it would indicate the province or at least the local health unit is pushing people up, thus they can push it through OHIP.

There has been nothing from the Province or he pharmacies to AZ dose 1 recipients to change the initial advice about the second shot, and the initial advice was July.

[Red CB Toronto]

There has been nothing from the Province or he pharmacies to AZ dose 1 recipients to change the initial advice about the second shot, and the initial advice was July.

The only thing is Ontario have AZ doses that expire at the end of the month, about 50,000 of them. Those I believe are still in the possession of the pharmacies, have not seen anything saying they have been sent back to province. So the logistics will of where the doses are and where the people are who want them will have to be figured out, but do not see that as a major obstacle. People wo want them will seek them out.

I can not say enough Bonnie Henry out in BC is a rock star. Her ability to communicate with compassion and giving people ease is second to none. BC has 20,000 AZ doses that expire at the end of June and the report about mixing 1st and 2nd doses will be out in the first week of June, so they will have time to give people the information they need to make a decision on what route they want to take or not. As I have said I just do not think Ontario will want the optics of expired doses in any major numbers.

[MightyDM]

The only thing is Ontario have AZ doses that expire at the end of the month, about 50,000 of them. Those I believe are still in the possession of the pharmacies, have not seen anything saying they have been sent back to province. So the logistics will of where the doses are and where the people are who want them will have to be figured out, but do not see that as a major obstacle. People wo want them will seek them out.

I can not say enough Bonnie Henry out in BC is a rock star. Her ability to communicate with compassion and giving people ease is second to none. BC has 20,000 AZ doses that expire at the end of June and the report about mixing 1st and 2nd doses will be out in the first week of June, so they will have time to give people the information they need to make a decision on what route they want to take or not. As I have said I just do not think Ontario will want the optics of expired doses in any major numbers.

Totally agree. It will be a rushed last minute thing here, chaotic just like the first AZ round in pharmacies- our local pharmacy, for example, was announced as a pilot pharmacy before they were even told there was a programme, let alone given a chance to apply. When we called they said "we heard rumours. i guess we better apply...."

[OgtheDim]

Person who I work with in Toronto got AZ in early March. Her second shot is this coming weekend. Weird stuff happens.

[Yohan]

https://torontosun.com/sports/soccer/mls/toronto-fc/toronto-fc-staying-in-orlando-until-allowed-at-bmo-field

TFC staying in Orlando until BMO Field can be opened again.

[OgtheDim]

That makes me think they have had some words from the Feds & the Province saying summertime return to cross border playing might be possible. No use setting up another base if you are only going to be there for a couple of months at most.

[Red CB Toronto]

Person who I work with in Toronto got AZ in early March. Her second shot is this coming weekend. Weird stuff happens.

Interesting, guess I would not expect anything less than Dougie and companying making a last minute announcement that the pharmacies can start giving AZ second shots beginning with the 50,000 doses that are expiring at the end of the month.

Interesting study out of Spain on mixing AZ with Phizer as the second doses being good.

https://www.cp24.com/world/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-dose-with-second-pfizer-dose-is-safe-and-effective-spanish-study-1.5432335?fbclid=IwAR0VUA7KOHmLrADTswOsou2tzF4QrWj c8Q5bAmSxO_V8DVvkptdiLmE11HI

[613reppingTFC]

I know I'm not in the GTA, but just for reference what's happening outside the area.
This morning 18+ can now register for their vaccine in Ontario which is great news. However in Kingston there are no appointments available in the surrounding areas and as far as an hour away in all directions. Website is just saying to check back in the next few days. Hopefully with the shipment we should be receiving next week it will open up for most people to book their appointment. (I managed to book for next week due to my job, but it was a two week wait). I'm curious how long it will take for everyone to get their second dose, therefore allowing us to get back to BMO...my guess would be late September before everyone gets their 2nd "jab". I have a feeling we wont be back at BMO this season, very limited numbers if so...

[ensco]

For those of you who don’t think the Leafs are going to drive this open soon...

Fans will be in seats in Montreal during Leafs series.

You may think it's unsafe, and you might be right, but this is going to be very hard to withstand in Toronto


https://twitter.com/sszczerbinski/status/1394624442488262662?s=21

[Joe Kool]

https://torontosun.com/sports/soccer/mls/toronto-fc/toronto-fc-staying-in-orlando-until-allowed-at-bmo-field

TFC staying in Orlando until BMO Field can be opened again.

Well Orlando and Miami manage to play there in Florida all summer despite the heat so we can't really have that as too much of an excuse but at least they hopefully will scrap all those afternoon games now going forward while they are there. Need to figure out a way to work that out even if they have to play at Disney again to accommodate Orlando's schedule.

[Red CB Toronto]

Quebec will begin the process of opening up next week. Have to think Ontario will follow suite sooner than later. Wonder is MLSE will be able to convince Doug to do the same. The pressure will be on especially if the Habs get their 2-4K in the building.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-annoucing-lifting-of-measures-1.6030812


For those of you who don’t think the Leafs are going to drive this open soon...

Fans will be in seats in Montreal during Leafs series.



https://twitter.com/sszczerbinski/status/1394624442488262662?s=21

[OgtheDim]

Ontario won't open indoor sports before schools - the uproar would be deafening.

That series will be over before schools open. If the Leafs make it to a second series, MIGHT happen.

[glaze]

Not sure about the statusnof vaccines in Quebec, but very few in Ontario have had their second dose.
In terms of optics that becomes a problem. While I agree the Leafs will likeky have fans by the second round, I don't see how anyone is fully vaccinated.

The question I guess becomes how comfortable are people in crowds with no vaccine enforcement. And will MLSE require proof of vaccination at any point?

[Oldtimer]

Not sure about the statusnof vaccines in Quebec, but very few in Ontario have had their second dose.
In terms of optics that becomes a problem. While I agree the Leafs will likeky have fans by the second round, I don't see how anyone is fully vaccinated.

The question I guess becomes how comfortable are people in crowds with no vaccine enforcement. And will MLSE require proof of vaccination at any point?


Nope. We've were told today by the weekly Federal Health Update that there will be no fans allowed for indoor sports at this point in time. Things are waiting for 75% fully vaccinated. Not sure how that will relate to outdoor sports like soccer.

[Red CB Toronto]

Nope. We've were told today by the weekly Federal Health Update that there will be no fans allowed for indoor sports at this point in time. Things are waiting for 75% fully vaccinated. Not sure how that will relate to outdoor sports like soccer.

Things can change quickly on the fly as we have learned with this government. Health updates sometimes mean very little to Doug at times. I can not imagine the pressure cooker he will feel if Legault lets the Habs have their 2-4K in the stands, especially if the PM will be in attendance as he is huge MTL fan. Here he is a few years ago at a pub in Montreal that us TFC supporters know very well.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRZv2T0UAAAdRED.jpg

In all serious this Ontario government needs to get things going, after Quebec mapped everything out today starting with Schools back in session next week.

[Auzzy]

Quebec has about 1/2 the cases per 100k as Ontario. ICUs and deaths are also much lower in QC during this wave. QC did much worse at the start of the pandemic, but finally got their act together compared to ON over the last few months.

The situations between QC & ON, Montréal & TO, and the Habs and the Leafs aren’t comparable at the moment. Lots of people are screaming for lots of things in Ontario, and a couple of people in the arena for the games in Montréal aren’t going to have a significant impact.

Ontario can “get things going” when ICUs are doing much better. They are barely off their peak, & MUCH worse than at the start of the third wave. The decisions that could let us act more like Quebec now, needed to be made in Ontario months ago, but they weren’t. People would absolutely FREAK if Ontario let any fans INSIDE an arena in the near future.

June 2nd or a bit before that, the province will allow golf and some other outdoor activities; perhaps also patios. They may also allow schools to open in areas with low case counts. (You only have to look at the Porcupine / Timmins health unit to see how quickly that can change.)

The last rushed reopening, third wave, and subsequent umpteenth mockdown / lockdown absolutely killed the Ontario government’s popularity, from both ends of the political spectrum. I believe they’ll be slightly more careful this time.

[Auzzy]

They could consider letting fully-vaccinated health care workers into playoff games in Toronto, and I’ve seen some chatter about that online. However they stopped giving 2nd doses to health care workers many months ago, and only just restarted. Too few ON HCWs are fully vaccinated, and it would create a huge amount of anger & jealousy if only the few who got both doses at the beginning of the year would be allowed entry.

[Red CB Toronto]

Quebec has about 1/2 the cases per 100k as Ontario. ICUs and deaths are also much lower in QC during this wave. QC did much worse at the start of the pandemic, but finally got their act together compared to ON over the last few months.

The situations between QC & ON, Montréal & TO, and the Habs and the Leafs aren’t comparable at the moment. Lots of people are screaming for lots of things in Ontario, and a couple of people in the arena for the games in Montréal aren’t going to have a significant impact.

Ontario can “get things going” when ICUs are doing much better. They are barely off their peak, & MUCH worse than at the start of the third wave. The decisions that could let us act more like Quebec now, needed to be made in Ontario months ago, but they weren’t. People would absolutely FREAK if Ontario let any fans INSIDE an arena in the near future.

June 2nd or a bit before that, the province will allow golf and some other outdoor activities; perhaps also patios. They may also allow schools to open in areas with low case counts. (You only have to look at the Porcupine / Timmins health unit to see how quickly that can change.)

The last rushed reopening, third wave, and subsequent umpteenth mockdown / lockdown absolutely killed the Ontario government’s popularity, from both ends of the political spectrum. I believe they’ll be slightly more careful this time.

Why would people freak, it would be their choice to go. Plus if they made it being fully vaccinated a condition to attend i would really see no issues as I said it would be a choice.

Plus getting second dose quick just became a whole bunch easier ie head to Buffalo. I would think we could end up seeing a whole bunch of this happening after the Canadian government confirmed you can do it if you choose.

Canadians can drive to U.S. for COVID-19 vax and avoid quarantine, Ottawa confirms


https://www.cp24.com/news/canadians-can-drive-to-u-s-for-covid-19-vax-and-avoid-quarantine-ottawa-confirms-1.5432958

[Auzzy]

Why would people freak, it would be their choice to go. Plus if they made it being fully vaccinated a condition to attend i would really see no issues as I said it would be a choice.

Plus getting second dose quick just became a whole bunch easier ie head to Buffalo. I would think we could end up seeing a whole bunch of this happening after the Canadian government confirmed you can do it if you choose.

Canadians can drive to U.S. for COVID-19 vax and avoid quarantine, Ottawa confirms


https://www.cp24.com/news/canadians-can-drive-to-u-s-for-covid-19-vax-and-avoid-quarantine-ottawa-confirms-1.5432958

I realize these playoffs are making you very excited. But you’re not making any sense, after you made lots of sense for many months. People would freak because no other indoor entertainment is allowed for fans at the moment, and hardly anything outdoors either. Hardly anybody is fully vaccinated, and some Buffalo loophole that a few hundred people might use isn’t going to affect policy decisions about allowing fans inside. Plus you’re considered fully vaccinated minimum two weeks after your second dose, and the playoff series starts tomorrow. No Ontario institution will provide a full vaccination certificate to anyone right now.

After more than a year in a pandemic, most people realize that nothing in this is just one person’s choice. Unless they agree not to go to the hospital or doctor if they get sick, and also won’t let anyone they infect go to the hospital or doctor either. Hospitals have not been able to start rescheduling any of the thousands of cancer surgeries and other treatments yet that had to be delayed due to the third wave. 40% of Ontario nurses are planning to quit due to extreme overload and burnout. Playoff hockey isn’t a significant concern at the moment.

A month from now things will look very different, but allowing fans indoors won’t be first on the list.

[Red CB Toronto]

I realize these playoffs are making you very excited. But you’re not making any sense, after you made lots of sense for many months. People would freak because no other indoor entertainment is allowed for fans at the moment, and hardly anything outdoors either. Hardly anybody is fully vaccinated, and some Buffalo loophole that a few hundred people might use isn’t going to affect policy decisions about allowing fans inside. Plus you’re considered fully vaccinated minimum two weeks after your second dose, and the playoff series starts tomorrow. No Ontario institution will provide a full vaccination certificate to anyone right now.

After more than a year in a pandemic, most people realize that nothing in this is just one person’s choice. Unless they agree not to go to the hospital or doctor if they get sick, and also won’t let anyone they infect go to the hospital or doctor either. Hospitals have not been able to start rescheduling any of the thousands of cancer surgeries and other treatments yet that had to be delayed due to the third wave. 40% of Ontario nurses are planning to quit due to extreme overload and burnout. Playoff hockey isn’t a significant concern at the moment.

A month from now things will look very different, but allowing fans indoors won’t be first on the list.

That did not come off right, I am not hockey guy at all, could care less, its just I could really see some push back if the Habs are allowed to have a small reduced crowd from those that are fatigued. Doug Ford just annoys the heck out of me, makes my blood boil at times because there sometimes no rhyme or reason to what he is saying. I think everything stops and starts with being fully vaccinated. I do wonder how they are going to reconcile someone's vaccine record if they do have one dose here and the other is the US. If some one is fully vaccinated in Ontario right now, would they not have their certificate from the Ministry of Health? i have my first does one that was sent to me the moment the pharmacist checked me out from my appointment.

[OgtheDim]

I think some people who love the Leafs & watch hockey every night & think its the bestest bestest sport ever don't quite realise that a lot of people don't care about the Leafs as much as they do.

Of course, this could change if the media chain run by the hedge fund that runs the National Enquirer decides to go all in on "BUT ITS THE LEAFS" but I'm not sure how that will go over.

****************

Regardless, the landscape in Ontario is going to change in the next couple of days as the province announces how/when the lockdowns are going to end. I'm not sure a journalist is going to use a very precious question at that event (they only get 4 in total) to ask about the Leafs - they might ask at a science table presser where they get more question time, although if the science table isn't buying into the releasing of lockdown pressure, they may not have a presser.

Fans at pro sports is way down the list of priorities right now.

[Red CB Toronto]

I think some people who love the Leafs & watch hockey every night & think its the bestest bestest sport ever don't quite realise that a lot of people don't care about the Leafs as much as they do.

Of course, this could change if the media chain run by the hedge fund that runs the National Enquirer decides to go all in on "BUT ITS THE LEAFS" but I'm not sure how that will go over.

****************

Regardless, the landscape in Ontario is going to change in the next couple of days as the province announces how/when the lockdowns are going to end. I'm not sure a journalist is going to use a very precious question at that event (they only get 4 in total) to ask about the Leafs - they might ask at a science table presser where they get more question time, although if the science table isn't buying into the releasing of lockdown pressure, they may not have a presser.

Fans at pro sports is way down the list of priorities right now.

I have always wondered, doctors have a hippocratic oath so for the chief medical officer of a county, state etc in the US that have their medical obligations how did things open so fast in some places. I get that Florida, Texas are nuts but even some of the level headed states like New York have things opens. A lot of this was going on even before the vaccine roll out got on track. What has Canada done wrong that we can not even take part in outdoor activities and so on that pose little risk at this point and those to the south can do all sorts of things and have been since the fall. My frustration has been that we did not go full lockdown right out of the gate, no one was even on the streets and nip this quick like Australia for example. We let this thing drag on.

[ensco]

The Leafs are just a metaphor, the proximate cause for the dam to break. That story, that they are finally going to acknowledge and permit people to go to the US to get vaccinations, that is all you need to know about the immense pressure the government are under.

I see all kinds of signs in my business and personal life that people are near the end of their willingness to stay in full lockdown solely because others in society are idiots. We have reached almost the end of the "well if we allow X, even though X is mostly safe, it'll lead to Y" type policy.

As an example I am aware of a group of dozens (maybe hundreds) of retailers and restauranteurs that are discussing a unified defiance, with a media blitz and branding, where they will reopen patios for a couple of weeks, then after that indoors at about 25% of capacity. They will all have HEPA and are assembling their own science, just basewd on what other serious countries are doing or have done. I don't think they are kidding either, they are just going to do it pretty soon. With or without Doug Ford.

They are going to have to move to allowing X and having more severe penalties for Y, if they want to keep the public on board.

I predict the Jays and TFC are playing home games in Toronto in 4 weeks, with at least some fans.

[OgtheDim]

Lets see what happens on Thursday / Friday but the next hurdle seems to be the 20% of people fully vaccinated metric the feds put out. The province seems to be focusing on getting out the 1st dose as far down the age chain as they can. Looking like mid July for 20% fully (including the 2 week after metric I'm seeing of late).

BTW, the AZ people I was talking about up thread - postponed until mid June. Basically moved from 10 weeks to 14 weeks. There's going to be a bit of pressure from boomers building in the next few weeks about second shots being cancelled.

[Red CB Toronto]

Lets see what happens on Thursday / Friday but the next hurdle seems to be the 20% of people fully vaccinated metric the feds put out. The province seems to be focusing on getting out the 1st dose as far down the age chain as they can. Looking like mid July for 20% fully (including the 2 week after metric I'm seeing of late).

BTW, the AZ people I was talking about up thread - postponed until mid June. Basically moved from 10 weeks to 14 weeks. There's going to be a bit of pressure from boomers building in the next few weeks about second shots being cancelled.

I wonder if the provincial government will feel any pressure regarding the 50,000 AZ doses that expire in Ontario at the end of the month. I believe they are still in freezers at the various pharmacies from when first doses were suspended. Are ether waiting on having a more definitive stance regarding mixing first and second doses to give people their options? The 250,000 the province has recently received expire at the end of August so the pressure is not on those yet. Getting people fully vaccinated will go a long way in opening anything up.

The more I think about it Ontario will be able to see how the first few weeks go in Quebec and can build from there, but I have to believe the framework is in place internally.

[leedsandTFC]

cases starting to plummet last couple days, but still way too high

[Oldtimer]

Things can change quickly on the fly as we have learned with this government. Health updates sometimes mean very little to Doug at times.

This was the Federal Government speaking, not Provincial. Federal government is in charge of border controls, and currently is not allowing sports teams across the border without quarantine. Provincial governments are in charge of sports venues, but they can't do anything without Federal co-operation.

[ensco]

This was the Federal Government speaking, not Provincial. Federal government is in charge of border controls, and currently is not allowing sports teams across the border without quarantine. Provincial governments are in charge of sports venues, but they can't do anything without Federal co-operation.

If anyone thinks the US is giving us any more vaccine (AZ or otherwise) without significant movement by us on the border issue... they would be mistaken, imho

(In reality the US can break us over their knee any time they feel like it over this issue, we would have no choice but to do as they say...)

https://www.wkbw.com/rebound/report-canadian-government-beginning-work-on-reopening-u-s-canada-border

[ag futbol]

^ One wonders if the pipeline issue with Michigan is just political horse trading. For such a critical piece of infrastructure, it’s off-beat to have these sorts of issues raised at the 11th hour. Maybe it’s a ploy to have the border more open at a pretty key trade crossing.

Then again, the hack of colonial pipeline suggests my faith in the competency of others might be greatly misplaced

[Canary10]

I've said many times, the border arrangement expires in two days. Commentators are saying it will be renewed by Friday. We'll know by end of the week. Nothing happens for the Blue Jays or TFC if they renew the agreement as is, as expected.

[benito]

Watching the FA Cup now the Coppa Italia finals with fans in the stands is really making miss seeing a live match. Can't wait to get back to BMO!

[Red CB Toronto]

If anyone thinks the US is giving us any more vaccine (AZ or otherwise) without significant movement by us on the border issue... they would be mistaken, imho

(In reality the US can break us over their knee any time they feel like it over this issue, we would have no choice but to do as they say...)

https://www.wkbw.com/rebound/report-canadian-government-beginning-work-on-reopening-u-s-canada-border

Yeah because the closure of the Canadian-US land border is completely on Canada. The US at the tine gave the feds what they wanted, surprised Canada did not go a far was air travel, guess that was too much of an ask. It will open up on Canada's cue, it is obviously not a major issue being worked on daily at the state department. I was a little surprised after Canada said that driving across the border for a vaccine shot was deemed essential and how quickly the US came back at said it was not. This has to be them applying pressure for the border to be open3d because I can not seem them caring all that much otherwise. Getting more AZ shots they need would have to be part of a reporting strategy. Could the US open the border their way regardless of what we are doing?

[OgtheDim]

I've said many times, the border arrangement expires in two days. Commentators are saying it will be renewed by Friday. We'll know by end of the week. Nothing happens for the Blue Jays or TFC if they renew the agreement as is, as expected.

Yes

&

This time they are expected to sign it for 1 month only, as against 2 months.


July is in play here


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-u-s-border-restrictions-extended-another-month-to-june-21-1.5433345

[Red CB Toronto]

This was the Federal Government speaking, not Provincial. Federal government is in charge of border controls, and currently is not allowing sports teams across the border without quarantine. Provincial governments are in charge of sports venues, but they can't do anything without Federal co-operation.

If its two Canadian teams playing' its up to the province to decide how to proceed, Quebec has said yes to limited fans in the stands and while Alberta and Manitoba have said no at this time. Reading between the lines Jason Kenney suggests he was not a fan of the extreme lockdown measures Quebec took to get to where they are now.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/alberta-premier-not-ready-allow-fans-enter-oilers-arena/

[Canary10]

Yes

&

This time they are expected to sign it for 1 month only, as against 2 months.


July is in play here


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-u-s-border-restrictions-extended-another-month-to-june-21-1.5433345

That's great! I hadn't seen that update. Thanks! July would be awesome, even just to get them playing at home with no supporters.

[OgtheDim]

That's great! I hadn't seen that update. Thanks! July would be awesome, even just to get them playing at home with no supporters.


I was thinking the same thing - we shall see. But the pressure is building & July seems a doable.

[Red CB Toronto]

Yesterday Ontario administered 145,461 vaccinations, up from 109,032 the day before.

Ontario has to administer an average of between 92,403 and 136,524 vaccines per day in order to have every eligible person fully vaccinated by the end of September. The range represents using single-dose vs double-dose vaccines. Ontario has yet to administer any single-dose vaccines. Ontario needs to administer an average of 180,494 vaccines per day to have everyone receive at least one dose by June 20.

Here’s a breakdown of the numbers:

- There are approximately 12,931,165 people eligible for vaccination in Ontario.
- 456,784 people are thus far fully vaccinated (3.5%)
- 6,518,070 people are currently awaiting their second dose (50.4%), including about 850,000 who took AZ as their first shot.
- 5,956,311 have yet to receive any vaccine at all (46.1%)

Therefore 12,474,381 to 18,430,692 vaccinations still need to be administered for every eligible person to be fully vaccinated. The range represents single vs double dose vaccines. There are 135 days left until October 1, 2021 (federal target). There are 33 days left until June 20, 2021 (provincial target)

If to be fully vaccinated requires everyone to have 2 doses then Ontario is currently 28.7% of the way through our vaccination program.

*these numbers do not take into account people who choose not to be vaccinated for any reason and those who die between now and Oct. 1, 2021 prior to being vaccinated. Some other factors/variables are also not considered, such as immigration, or those who get vaccinated abroad. They include everyone 12 years of age and older.

[Red CB Toronto]

So Ontario is expected to announce that the 45,000 AZ doses that are due to expire at the end of the month are going to be made available for second doses. While 12 weeks after your first doses seems to give better efficacy overall the vaccine is approved for a 4 - 12 week interval range. AZ was first made available for use on March 12, initially for ages 60-64 so those who got their jabs in March would be closer to 12 weeks than 4 weeks. These doses for the most part are randomly spread around pharmacies that had doses on hand when the halt was made. I know of one that had about 200 available that barely got any bookings, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next week or so. There are another 250,000 doses that the Ontario government has on hand that expire at the end of August. They are part of the 650,000 Canada received recently. If Canada get the 2.3 million people who got AZ for their first doses fully vaccinated that would get them about 10% of those eligibly in the country. I got my first dose on April 20th, the first day for the over 40 crowd so would only be about 6 weeks since my shot. I also have to think they may only use the 45K on those that got it in March or something.

I believe its about 20 million in total (not sure if those aged 12-16 are included). Trudeau has said it would take getting to 20% fully vaccinated to get the border opened. Their is still a lot of work to be done but their is light at the end of the tunnel. The issue of mixing first and second doses is an entire other issue that has to be figured out as I am sure some of the 2.3M will want to know their options before taking their second shot.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2021/05/19/ontario-will-give-second-shots-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-source.html

https://cdn.a-printable-calendar.com/images/large/april-may-2021-calendar.png

[Red CB Toronto]

https://twitter.com/robertbenzie/status/1395096731331743746

[Blindside16]

I have always wondered, doctors have a hippocratic oath so for the chief medical officer of a county, state etc in the US that have their medical obligations how did things open so fast in some places. I get that Florida, Texas are nuts but even some of the level headed states like New York have things opens. A lot of this was going on even before the vaccine roll out got on track. What has Canada done wrong that we can not even take part in outdoor activities and so on that pose little risk at this point and those to the south can do all sorts of things and have been since the fall. My frustration has been that we did not go full lockdown right out of the gate, no one was even on the streets and nip this quick like Australia for example. We let this thing drag on.


Had we gone into a fully proper lockdown and stopped all international flights in and out we would be where Australia and New Zealand are not. Both provincial and federal governments have stumbled their way through the handling of this pandemic

[OgtheDim]

Confirmed border closed until June 21st for non-essential

https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1395408489984446473

[Red CB Toronto]

Confirmed border closed until June 21st for non-essential

https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1395408489984446473

Not surpassing. I figure there could be one more 1 month extension with an eye towards an August 1st opening. The US could start to apply some pressure here especially if the border state governors really start to push for it, thus are in Biden and Blinken's ear. Doug's argument that the border being opening to the extent it has is the key reason for spread it totally wrong, the numbers show it. I have always felt the closing of the border was mostly driven by Canada, but opening it up could be used to get us more vaccines as some have suggested.

[OgtheDim]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E12odQhXsBQPb-n?format=jpg&name=medium


Phase 1 to start June 14

Phase 2 - 3 weeks later


In THEORY

First home TFC game Saturday July 17

[leedsandTFC]

full stadiums likely from beginning off august based on that.

10 home games from then on too

[Red CB Toronto]

I assume the percentage of those that have received their first dose is those that are eligible vs the province's over population? With the 12-17 age group not included I wonder if they will be a hindrance to getting to the thresholds that province wants? Also what is the percentage the province expects before things really slow down. I expect the percentage of of those that get one shot vs being fully vaccinated to be pretty similar. The J&J would really give the province the fully vaccinated boost they desire in one swoop.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E12odQhXsBQPb-n?format=jpg&name=medium


Phase 1 to start June 14

Phase 2 - 3 weeks later


In THEORY

First home TFC game Saturday July 17

[Blindside16]

full stadiums likely from beginning off august based on that.

10 home games from then on too


I am still doubtful that we see full stadiums this year. I would assume that MLSE would most likely err on the side of caution and go with limited capacity for at least the end of the regular season.

[leedsandTFC]

I assume the percentage of those that have received their first dose is those that are eligible vs the province's over population? With the 12-17 age group not included I wonder if they will be a hindrance to getting to the thresholds that province wants? Also what is the percentage the province expects before things really slow down. I expect the percentage of of those that get one shot vs being fully vaccinated to be pretty similar. The J&J would really give the province the fully vaccinated boost they desire in one swoop.

....

[leedsandTFC]

I am still doubtful that we see full stadiums this year. I would assume that MLSE would most likely err on the side of caution and go with limited capacity for at least the end of the regular season.

what's this based on?

1/4 capacity against full capacity for the final 10 home games will cost them millions of dollars.

after investing heavily in the team to get bums in seats, hard to see them not opening to capacity the second they get the ok from all levels of govt.


edit to say that by august we'll at 80%+ first shot and 40% 2nd shot. it will be very safe to open an outdoor stadium to capacity, and they would not give the ok if there was any indication it wasn't.

[Red CB Toronto]

what's this based on?

1/4 capacity against full capacity for the final 10 home games will cost them millions of dollars.

after investing heavily in the team to get bums in seats, hard to see them not opening to capacity the second they get the ok from all levels of govt.


edit to say that by august we'll at 80%+ first shot and 40% 2nd shot. it will be very safe to open an outdoor stadium to capacity, and they would not give the ok if there was any indication it wasn't.

It's not just about people in their seats, you have to take into consideration the flow of people on the concourses, getting into the stadium and for that matter the area around the BMO Field. BMO Field presents challenges as many of us know there are train tracks between the the stadium and King Street. That tunnel would be a nightmare. The city would not want anyone going through it in mass. I think the province in partnership with the city will totally err on the side of caution with any sporting events, concerts etc. I think being fully vaccinated will be a requirement to attend at least early on. 25% capacity would be 7,500. I think even at that level someone who wants to go will have no problem getting a ticket, there will a lot of people who would not go anywhere near something like attending a soccer game even during the summer.

By the time the Reds could possibly return in late July/early August the number of fully vaccinated should rise greatly I assume. I really believe caution will be the driving force behind this by all involved. We are not going to see the packed house the Texas Rangers did for their home opener vs. the Jays anytime soon in these parts.

[leedsandTFC]

It's not just about people in their seats, you have to take into consideration the flow of people on the concourses, getting into the stadium and for that matter the area around the BMO Field. BMO Field presents challenges as many of us know there are train tracks between the the stadium and King Street. That tunnel would be a nightmare. The city would not want anyone going through it in mass. I think the province in partnership with the city will totally err on the side of caution with any sporting events, concerts etc. I think being fully vaccinated will be a requirement to attend at least early on. 25% capacity would be 7,500. I think even at that level someone who wants to go will have no problem getting a ticket, there will a lot of people who would not go anywhere near something like attending a soccer game even during the summer.

By the time the Reds could possibly return in late July/early August the number of fully vaccinated should rise greatly I assume. I really believe caution will be the driving force behind this by all involved. We are not going to see the packed house the Texas Rangers did for their home opener vs. the Jays anytime soon in these parts.

my counterpoint to this is that vaccines work, actually, and if cases are as low as projected by august, the danger of walking in a crowded tunnel around a bunch of other people who have also been vaccinated is not a risk at all.

i bet the first game, maybe 2 will have limited capacity, but would be absolutely shocked if BMO is not full by september.

if it's not full then, basically an admission that we're never having a full bmo field again. vaccine uptake will likely never be as high.

[Oldtimer]

my counterpoint to this is that vaccines work, actually, and if cases are as low as projected by august, the danger of walking in a crowded tunnel around a bunch of other people who have also been vaccinated is not a risk at all.

i bet the first game, maybe 2 will have limited capacity, but would be absolutely shocked if BMO is not full by september.

if it's not full then, basically an admission that we're never having a full bmo field again. vaccine uptake will likely never be as high.

All that would make sense if people were completely rational and trusted in the science. However we know that people aren't completely rational, so anything can happen.

[Red CB Toronto]

All that would make sense if people were completely rational and trusted in the science. However we know that people aren't completely rational, so anything can happen.

They could also got the route like teams are south of the border by having sections for the vaccinated which are full and others for those that are not with social distancing in place with the a requirement of a negative covid That offers up more challenges, especially from a logistics standpoint, especially if giving season ticket holders their options, as we know some with their shots may still want to be distanced from others in a pod. But as you said anything can happen, so we shall wait and see.

[Red CB Toronto]

The plans for AZ shots will be announced at 10 am today by the province. Looking forward to my second shot.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-to-announce-plan-for-how-to-use-remaining-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-1.5437741

[Oldtimer]

The plans for AZ shots will be announced at 10 am today by the province. Looking forward to my second shot.

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-to-announce-plan-for-how-to-use-remaining-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-1.5437741

I understand they want to be cautious, but there's practically zero risk for a second shot, and being fully immunized is significantly safer than being half there. Seems like a no-brainer. The whole thing is overblown anyway. The risk from taking a three hour flight is much higher than from the AZ shot, and nobody is talking about banning flights.

[glaze]

I interpreted it as half full stadiums by August. Spreading out 20k in BMO isnt an issue, as much as how will you do ticketing, how will the stadium be set up to distance crowds (several logistics issues, west concourse, essentially 2 gates for crowd to enter and exit, the tunnel, etc).
Also MLSE has to staff the events.
And determine what the vax policy is, and how it wiĺl be enforced.
My friends and I have decided to pass on thr season, if thats an option and just defer to 2022. While I have no problem golfing each week, I'm just in no rush to be around 20k people.

[Red CB Toronto]

I understand they want to be cautious, but there's practically zero risk for a second shot, and being fully immunized is significantly safer than being half there. Seems like a no-brainer. The whole thing is overblown anyway. The risk from taking a three hour flight is much higher than from the AZ shot, and nobody is talking about banning flights.

That was pretty good news earlier, for those who were unable to watch it live, first doses of AZ still paused, but second doses of AZ are a go. The first administration of second doses of AZ will begin May 24th. They will be offered to those who got first doses March 10-19th (10-11 week interval). That should make sure none of the current 55k doses expiring May 31st go to waste. Everyone else who got their first AZ dose later on should be expecting to have a second AZ dose available to them at the 12-week interval. I got mine on Tuesday, April 20th so if everything goes as planned I would be able to get my shot the week of Tuesday, July 13th.

[Yuushalinsky]

So, I just got some season seats, thought it was about time for me. my AM said that they were targeting August pretty hard for ticketed games.

[Auzzy]

That did not come off right, I am not hockey guy at all, could care less, its just I could really see some push back if the Habs are allowed to have a small reduced crowd from those that are fatigued. Doug Ford just annoys the heck out of me, makes my blood boil at times because there sometimes no rhyme or reason to what he is saying. I think everything stops and starts with being fully vaccinated. I do wonder how they are going to reconcile someone's vaccine record if they do have one dose here and the other is the US. If some one is fully vaccinated in Ontario right now, would they not have their certificate from the Ministry of Health? i have my first does one that was sent to me the moment the pharmacist checked me out from my appointment.


I have always wondered, doctors have a hippocratic oath so for the chief medical officer of a county, state etc in the US that have their medical obligations how did things open so fast in some places. I get that Florida, Texas are nuts but even some of the level headed states like New York have things opens. A lot of this was going on even before the vaccine roll out got on track. What has Canada done wrong that we can not even take part in outdoor activities and so on that pose little risk at this point and those to the south can do all sorts of things and have been since the fall. My frustration has been that we did not go full lockdown right out of the gate, no one was even on the streets and nip this quick like Australia for example. We let this thing drag on.

Thanks I agree with everything. I got way too anxious before the Ontario re-opening announcement. I just feel we kept failing the marshmallow test. I think it actually came out pretty reasonable for once. If they don't cave too much to lobbying, cases will keep receding while vaccines keep scaling up, and businesses will have a solid foundation to plan for opening and staying open.

You asked about chief medical officers of health in the US. They don't really have anything equivalent. States and the fed have medical advisers of various types, but they don't have any formal power or say. It's more purely political. (The medical officers don't always have much say here either in reality, or don't use their theoretic power, but there is this veneer at least.) In the US they generally accepted a much higher rate of death. Places like NY got pretty careful after their initial huge failures though, and NY had extremely low test positivity and a bunch of measures in place for a long time, plus lots of vaccines in the last few months, which got them to the level of opening they have now. We'll be there in a few weeks.

The other big thing in the US is that they have WAY more hospital and ICU capacity. Lots of people don't make it out of ICU alive especially after having COVID for a long time, both in the US and Canada. But with the larger ICU capacity generally in the US, they could deal with a higher level of disease and death in many areas w/o getting as close to system collapse as in Ontario a few weeks ago. Granted it's also extremely expensive there, and there are lots of people in the US going broke now or starting GoFundMe's after extended COVID hospital stays, and needing a way to pay for extensive rehab afterwards (including friends of mine).

All my family incl. 16-year-old daughter now vaccinated one time. I'm looking forward to my 2nd shot of AZ a day after CB. I gotta chill on this topic and especially stay away from Twitter, it's just endless and mostly useless.

[Ponderosa]

It was awesome watching the season closing game from Anfield today, about 10k in the stands - just hearing the fans sing YNWA at the beginning and before the last whistle was awesome. Watching the game was so different than a game in front of an empty stadium and banners.

I've been double vaxxed for sometime now but still hesitant around crowds - I think tho - if BMO were to open up - I'd shed the pandemic PTSD real quick to raise a scarf and belt out Oh Canada or Legend TFC, I won't ever complain again about the ineebs on a forever loop with their chants (well for the first few games anyways).