When BMO opens up for TFC games

[Derko]

I have a hypothetical question for TFC season ticket holders:
Supposing BMO reopens for games with a limited number of spectators, what do you think is the fairest way to allow spectators A.

1. A lottery system for SST holders.
2. Those SST holders that opted to keep their money in the organization, get first crack.
3. Those opted for a refund, get second crack.

I know what I think is fair.
How about you?

Cheers
Derko

[Red CB Toronto]

I think it will really come down to how many people are allowed in. I really do not see MLSE opening it up with 250-500 fans in the stands similar to what Montreal did last summer for their games against the Canadian teams. Joey Saputo has a very different style than the corporate entity here in MLSE. The Impact used an auction system to sell their 250 tickets where the average price paid was about $75 a ticket. Red Bull Arena could have had 500 fans in the stands in 2020 and they chose not too. While they did say it was for health and safety season, the financial aspect of it certainly played a part in it.

If its north of 10,000 a game I think a SSH that wants to go will be able to. I honestly believe even if they do allow fans in the stands come September there will still be a significant number of people that will be caucious in this city and choose not too. Plus another question will be what will you have to do to be able to attend ie having to take a Covid test. New York for instances in allowing any sporting event that has a capacity of 10,000 or more to have 10% attend provided they have a negative test within 72 hours of the game. How people will want to to do that, not many in my eyes?

I think SSH who left their money will be first, then the rest of the SSH base and so how on, but as i said it will really come down to how many are allowed in will be a deciding factor in how they proceed.

10% = 3,000, 25% = 7,500, 50% = 15,000. This is based on a 30,000 capacity. Think it may be less in reality but not exactly sure.




I have a hypothetical question for TFC season ticket holders:
Supposing BMO reopens for games with a limited number of spectators, what do you think is the fairest way to allow spectators A.

1. A lottery system for SST holders.
2. Those SST holders that opted to keep their money in the organization, get first crack.
3. Those opted for a refund, get second crack.

I know what I think is fair.
How about you?

Cheers
Derko

[Red CB Toronto]

Here is what you have to do to attend a Knicks or Rangers game at Madison Square Gardens. I can also see the approach to indoor and outdoor events being very different. Even the leagues can choose to have stricter guidelines that what the state allows. For instances in Tampa, we just saw the Super Bowl with over 22K in the stands and on the other hand the Lightning and Raptors have chosen to close their games to spectators after starting the season with them.

https://www.msg.com/reopening-faq?cmp=web_nyr_msg-reopen-faq_subnav#testing

[levyashin]

As a year one season ticket holder who left his money in TFC and as an over 70’s guy I will not be heading to BMO any time soon.
One spot opened up for the early birds.

[eustacchio]

I wonder what staffing changes need to happen when you allow a small number of people in the building. How much security do you need for 250 people spread throughout the stadium? Do they open any concessions? What about cleaning. Not just the seats, but bathrooms that wouldn't need to be cleaned otherwise, etc.

[Red CB Toronto]

I wonder what staffing changes need to happen when you allow a small number of people in the building. How much security do you need for 250 people spread throughout the stadium? Do they open any concessions? What about cleaning. Not just the seats, but bathrooms that wouldn't need to be cleaned otherwise, etc.

Having been to TFCII games at BMO, where everyone was seated in the lower bowl of the east side, there was maybe a half dozen security and ushers combined with maybe a few hundred if that in the stands. Even 1,000 fans on that one side would be pretty baron. If I remember correctly if it was a game after a first team match at least one of the concession stands remained open until at least the half. If it was a stand alone game , one of the BBQ grills was open.

[eustacchio]

Having been to TFCII games at BMO, where everyone was seated in the lower bowl of the east side, there was maybe a half dozen security and ushers combined with maybe a few hundred if that in the stands. Even 1,000 fans on that one side would be pretty baron. If I remember correctly if it was a game after a first team match at least one of the concession stands remained open until at least the half. If it was a stand alone game , one of the BBQ grills was open.

I'm more so thinking about a the return on investment. Is it worth bringing in that staff to let 250 people watch a game?
,
A double-header would be cheaper. You already have to do all of the cleaning, and your staff is already there.

[Boddington]

Related but un-related....what are the odds we still get a scarf this season?

[Stress]

Related but un-related....what are the odds we still get a scarf this season?

FO already confirmed they are in production. Pretty sure that was written in a members email recently.

[Red CB Toronto]

I'm more so thinking about a the return on investment. Is it worth bringing in that staff to let 250 people watch a game?
,
A double-header would be cheaper. You already have to do all of the cleaning, and your staff is already there.

TFC II had a Wednesday night game at BMO Field back in 2018 with an announced crowd of 50 people. I think the difference is that with TFC II it was the 50 people who wanted to be their, likely friends and families. A low allowed number for the first team could be more of a headache that its worth for MLSE. Interesting thing is that with Orlando City, when they had a 3,000 capacity limit you still could go on ticketmaster and get tickets, the same with FC Dallas.

[Blindside16]

In all honest it would not surprise me in the least if it is not until Spring 2022 before we as fans are allowed back into BMO. Not trying to be pessimistic but with the delay in vaccines both coming to Canada and in the rollout, combined with the daily reports of variants, I would be shocked if the government signs off on allowing fans in attendance this year. I hope I am wrong but time will tell.

[FootBallAZ]

im skeptical myself- where i sit should be no issue -as most people dont ever show up to the left and right of me and there is no one who can sit in front of us- i know one thing is ill be ready to attend in 2026

im really unsure going forward im glad i went to the home opener last season.

all i know is how bad the washroom gets crowded when its cold outside -

[Ultra & Proud]

Related but un-related....what are the odds we still get a scarf this season?

Judging by how bad they've screwed up this round of emails and leaked everyone's private account info, I would say we will be getting them but not for a while.

[leedsandTFC]

if what trudeau says is true and everyone who wants one can get a vaccine by september, i'd imagine they would be able to open with potentially 1/3 capacity at that time.

if vaccine rollout goes well and cases are still low, can see a full BMO being a reality in 2021 only if we make a playoff run.

[Cas87]

I see the season for TFC (and by extension the Jays) playing out in two modes:

1) start on the road (Jays already confirmed they are in Dunedin for first 2 homestands, getting them to beginning of May) -- I personally feel as though TFC and the Jays will be in Florida as 'home' until at least beginning of June, more than likely July (give the vaccine delivery and roll-out to step up on both sides of the boarder)

2) July onwards will be back at home with government approval* with no fans initially, potentially getting to 10-15% capacity for both by September (and upwards depending on playoffs)
*Government approval not guaranteed of course - I still like the one hypothetical idea for visiting teams I saw last year (I think it was over on the 24th minute blog) --> visiting teams, at least for MLS, travel to Buffalo and stay there -- they get 1 day exemptions from usual border restrictions based on league requirements to travel to BMO only for the game and travel back to Buffalo afterwards.

[Blizzard]

I see the season for TFC (and by extension the Jays) playing out in two modes:

1) start on the road (Jays already confirmed they are in Dunedin for first 2 homestands, getting them to beginning of May) -- I personally feel as though TFC and the Jays will be in Florida as 'home' until at least beginning of June, more than likely July (give the vaccine delivery and roll-out to step up on both sides of the boarder)

2) July onwards will be back at home with government approval* with no fans initially, potentially getting to 10-15% capacity for both by September (and upwards depending on playoffs)
*Government approval not guaranteed of course - I still like the one hypothetical idea for visiting teams I saw last year (I think it was over on the 24th minute blog) --> visiting teams, at least for MLS, travel to Buffalo and stay there -- they get 1 day exemptions from usual border restrictions based on league requirements to travel to BMO only for the game and travel back to Buffalo afterwards.

And this is the perfect way for them to make the trip!https://live.staticflickr.com/4132/34792146763_db3b0db217.jpg

[Auzzy]

And this is the perfect way for them to make the trip!

Hey wait a second, what if they play the games in the middle of Lake Ontario, kinda like this but farther out? :D :D

http://individual.utoronto.ca/ageorgi/Singapore.jpg

[Blindside16]

Hey wait a second, what if they play the games in the middle of Lake Ontario, kinda like this but farther out? :D :D

http://individual.utoronto.ca/ageorgi/Singapore.jpg

If Bono is in goal he puts it into the lake at least 6 times off a goal kick

[glaze]

2 seasons away from BMO will make it interesting when we return. Just in terms of alot of supporters seats are held by SSH.
2 years when you're 28 is no big deal, but when youre 40 its a lifetime. People have kids, routines change, etc.
I think my friends will be back for 1 more year, but then probably realize they're into hitting 2 games a year rather than 20.

[leedsandTFC]

2 seasons away from BMO will make it interesting when we return. Just in terms of alot of supporters seats are held by SSH.
2 years when you're 28 is no big deal, but when youre 40 its a lifetime. People have kids, routines change, etc.
I think my friends will be back for 1 more year, but then probably realize they're into hitting 2 games a year rather than 20.

uk is having fans back in stadiums from june.

we're a couple months behind the UK, so i'd imagine we'll be able to be back in some capacity in august.

[OgtheDim]

Still thinking September.....the province quietly moved Stage 2 from March to April (jabs into people over 80 & adults with chronic conditions living at home changing the timelines, as they should)

For those wanting to know - https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-plan-en-2021-02-19.pdf

[Red CB Toronto]

NJ governor Phil Murphy announced next week fans can return to arenas/stadiums that can hold more than 5,000 people.For indoor venues, 10% of capacity will be allowed (Devils) and outdoor venues (RBNY, Sky Blue) will be allowed to have 15% capacity. This is the type measures I could see for BMO and Ontario in general. These are little bit eased up compared to New York. The tristate area has been very likeminded in comparison to Ontario, in ways they have stricter by having 14 days quarantines for those traveling from other states. The big thing will be the border and the variants. We shall see.

[Ponderosa]

UK and US may be opening up - but it could be partially influenced by their culture - and we've already witnessed how different Canadian attitudes are towards community and individual freedoms are compared to other countries. Part of me feels that the decision makers and general public might feel opening up sports to be a frivolous and unnecessary measure as long as we are still requiring masking in public places, schools, and have any amount of outbreaks going on.

[Eastend]

2 seasons away from BMO will make it interesting when we return. Just in terms of alot of supporters seats are held by SSH.
2 years when you're 28 is no big deal, but when youre 40 its a lifetime. People have kids, routines change, etc.
I think my friends will be back for 1 more year, but then probably realize they're into hitting 2 games a year rather than 20.

I can see some people falling into this. I'm 51, my brother is 46, my dad would be 71 by then...we'll all be back.

[leedsandTFC]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-march-5-2021-toronto-peel-vaccines-1.5937850

what are everyone's current thoughts on BMO opening up with this current vaccine schedule?

[OgtheDim]

I've been bullish about BMO opening up by September. Based on what we heard today, might be August. I know vaccines will be in people who want it before then but the nature of post-vaccine life is going to be very interesting to watch.

I suspect way more Canadians are going to get the vaccine once the true peer pressure related to work starts. But we are still going to be doing case counts daily for a bit yet.

In the meantime - KEEP THE EYES ON THE PRIZE PEOPLE - wash your damn hands, stay at home if you can, don't think you are immortal BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT, wear a mask in public and try to stay alive long enough to get back into BMO

[leedsandTFC]

I've been bullish about BMO opening up by September. Based on what we heard today, might be August. I know vaccines will be in people who want it before then but the nature of post-vaccine life is going to be very interesting to watch.

I suspect way more Canadians are going to get the vaccine once the true peer pressure related to work starts. But we are still going to be doing case counts daily for a bit yet.

In the meantime - KEEP THE EYES ON THE PRIZE PEOPLE - wash your damn hands, stay at home if you can, don't think you are immortal BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT, wear a mask in public and try to stay alive long enough to get back into BMO

I'm hoping we can have a full stadium by september, with limited capacity viewing through august.

[Ponderosa]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-march-5-2021-toronto-peel-vaccines-1.5937850

what are everyone's current thoughts on BMO opening up with this current vaccine schedule?

Even if we hit a majority vaccinated - COVID can still be passed around and tested positive - you're just not likely going to need to be hospitalised or on a vent or risk of death. But the COVID positivity rate might still be up there.

It will all depend if the Prov Gov't changes their definitions. The 'GREEN-Protect' part of the framework - outdoor spectators are limited to 100. But to get there we need something like less than 200 cases per day (don't quote me on that #)

I feel we have a long ways to go before we are allowed back at BMO. We need to vaccinate, get the #s down, hope the new variants don't over run us or the vaccines, and get the politicians to scrap the framework.

I'm cautiously optimistic for March 2022.

[leedsandTFC]

Even if we hit a majority vaccinated - COVID can still be passed around and tested positive - you're just not likely going to need to be hospitalised or on a vent or risk of death. But the COVID positivity rate might still be up there.

It will all depend if the Prov Gov't changes their definitions. The 'GREEN-Protect' part of the framework - outdoor spectators are limited to 100. But to get there we need something like less than 200 cases per day (don't quote me on that #)

I feel we have a long ways to go before we are allowed back at BMO. We need to vaccinate, get the #s down, hope the new variants don't over run us or the vaccines, and get the politicians to scrap the framework.

I'm cautiously optimistic for March 2022.

this seems like the worst case scenario, although definitely possible.

if we're smart and keep social distancing, staying home, etc, til we have a big % of people vaccinated, cases should be very low by the summer, and deaths should be around 0.

that being said, this govt hasnt exactly been known for being smart about things this pandemic.

[Auzzy]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-march-5-2021-toronto-peel-vaccines-1.5937850

what are everyone's current thoughts on BMO opening up with this current vaccine schedule?

And even this new Ontario announcement was out-of-date as it was released, as it didn’t include the J&J vaccine, or the accelerated Pfizer delivery March - June, both announced by the Feds today.

Plus the US just announced they’ll have enough for everyone there by the end of May. They won’t make any new promises until they are close and know how things are really going. But what are their huge factories (Pfizer, Moderna AND J&J/Merck) doing in June? They could make enough doses to finish off any stragglers in Canada incl. 2nd doses within a week or two. Biden might want to do that as an olive branch to Canada after continuing to lock us out. (Of course there are also plenty of potential customers around the world.)

I could imagine limited BMO attendance starting in August or Sept. One issue: no vaccines for kids yet, but that is being tested now, and I think Pfizer is already approved for 16+

[glaze]

I think a more interesting question is how many of us would go to a bmo thats 10k capacity spread out?
I'm sure there will be demand, but I'm also sure many people will say forget it.
Personally, i find an empty stadium to really take away from the experience. Just look at the difference between a Saturday night game, and a midweek ccl game.
I don't expect to be back until 2022.

[nfitz]

Less than usual, that's for sure.

My guess is about 10,000.

[Blindside16]

this seems like the worst case scenario, although definitely possible.

if we're smart and keep social distancing, staying home, etc, til we have a big % of people vaccinated, cases should be very low by the summer, and deaths should be around 0.

that being said, this govt hasnt exactly been known for being smart about things this pandemic.

Keep in mind we saw a dip in cases last summer only to have it roar back come the fall. I would hope to see fans in some capacity at BMO this fall but I will not hold my breath. I think March 2022 is the much more realistic target. I do agree with you about this government however.

[leedsandTFC]

Keep in mind we saw a dip in cases last summer only to have it roar back come the fall. I would hope to see fans in some capacity at BMO this fall but I will not hold my breath. I think March 2022 is the much more realistic target. I do agree with you about this government however.

we didn't have a vaccine last summer though.

if enough people get vaccinated then we **should** be good, barring any variants being fully resistant to covid (although not much evidence of this yet).

getting 80% of the population vaccinated is tough though, that's the main issue.

[OgtheDim]

US is going to have everybody who wants to vaccinated by the end of April, early May.

Thinking is Canada might be there by the end of June.

I still think August because things will screw up somewhere but there is hope for not having to be worried about dying from this, and considering it is currently the 13th Month of March 2020, this is good.

[MightyDM]

August is reasonable, September likely. August assumes that the Ontario vaccine roll out becomes competent despite current evidence - which actually is possible given how effective our local health units, pharmacies and hospitals can be. The next few weeks will tell us if things are working properly.

[jabbronies]

The government - both Canadian and Ontario - are run by idiots with zero logistical experience anywhere in their ranks. Vaccination distribution will be plagued by issues.

Don't expect to be back at BMO until at least September. The real goal should be to have some fan in the stadium ?(5-10k) for the playoffs.

it's not just fans that need to vaccinated - it's staff as well - concessions, facilities, security etc.

EDIT- Actually - maybe not concessions. I could see a no food/drink situation.

[JoesphNdo]

If we only have 5,000 fans in attendance by the play offs (if we make it) with the government of Ontario saying their aim is for every citizen of the province who wants one to have had at least one shot by June 20th then something has gone *horrifically* wrong. That wouldn't just be logistical issues, that'd be catastrophic failure of either our health system or if the virus mutating in a way the vaccines don't help against and the entire world being back in some kind of lock down

[Red CB Toronto]

I wonder what the threshold would be for MLSE to open up games to spectators, I just do not see them doing it for 250-500 people. MLSE is a very different beast than Joey is when they opened up Impact games next summer. Also the Red Bulls choose to not have spectators when they could have let 500 in.

[jabbronies]

I wonder what the threshold would be for MLSE to open up games to spectators, I just do not see them doing it for 250-500 people. MLSE is a very different beast than Joey is when they opened up Impact games next summer. Also the Red Bulls choose to not have spectators when they could have let 500 in.


MLSE would totally open it up for 250-500 people.

I don't know why you think they wouldn't, unless you are following the narrative that they are cheap and wouldn't do anything unless they are going to make $$$ on the spot.

[Ultra & Proud]

MLSE would totally open it up for 250-500 people.

I don't know why you think they wouldn't, unless you are following the narrative that they are cheap and wouldn't do anything unless they are going to make $$$ on the spot.
They're not cheap but also not stupid. Doing it for that little is effectively pointless. I say if they are allowed 10% or above then they'd do it for sure.

[leedsandTFC]

If we only have 5,000 fans in attendance by the play offs (if we make it) with the government of Ontario saying their aim is for every citizen of the province who wants one to have had at least one shot by June 20th then something has gone *horrifically* wrong. That wouldn't just be logistical issues, that'd be catastrophic failure of either our health system or if the virus mutating in a way the vaccines don't help against and the entire world being back in some kind of lock down
this is true...if the vaccines are in arms even semi according to schedule then we should have a full stadium if we make playoffs (barring a heavily vaccine resistant strain spreading, etc).

[MightyDM]

If we only have 5,000 fans in attendance by the play offs (if we make it) with the government of Ontario saying their aim is for every citizen of the province who wants one to have had at least one shot by June 20th then something has gone *horrifically* wrong. That wouldn't just be logistical issues, that'd be catastrophic failure of either our health system or if the virus mutating in a way the vaccines don't help against and the entire world being back in some kind of lock down

The Province of Ontario doesn't have a plan to deliver vaccines - look on their website, there literally is no plan, just categories. June 20 is a wish that was blurted out by Hillier. The plan is being written now (or maybe not) and so scepticism is in order.

(PS I looked up the information because of family needs ie ill relatives who need to be vaccinated at home which is why I know there isn't a plan - unlike BC which actually has a plan and reasonable details available)

[leedsandTFC]

https://apnews.com/article/cdc-fully-vaccinated-can-gather-without-masks-b9775dcde0254037e012ea9447e49917

good news (it's the CDC, but I'd imagine that our advice won't differ radically).

[JoesphNdo]

The Province of Ontario doesn't have a plan to deliver vaccines - look on their website, there literally is no plan, just categories. June 20 is a wish that was blurted out by Hillier. The plan is being written now (or maybe not) and so scepticism is in order.

(PS I looked up the information because of family needs ie ill relatives who need to be vaccinated at home which is why I know there isn't a plan - unlike BC which actually has a plan and reasonable details available)

Nobody has less faith in the government of Ontario than I do, but there's a world of difference between 'every person who wants their first shot by June 20th will have it' and 'we've vaccinated so few people by November 19th that there is still such a threat of our healthcare system being overloaded and our oldest people dying that we need to limit attendance to outdoor sporting events'. That isn't just some logistic issues and poor planning, that is something has gone catastrophically wrong with the global supply of vaccinations

Would I bet my life that everyone who wants a shot in Ontario has their first shot by June 20th? Absolutely not. But I'd 100% bet my life that we're there by November

[jabbronies]

They're not cheap but also not stupid. Doing it for that little is effectively pointless. I say if they are allowed 10% or above then they'd do it for sure.

Not pointless at all. You get 500 loud supporters in there - that energy would give the player the push they need to win a game.

A move like this isn't about $ and it's not about getting people in just to have bums in seats.

This would 100% be about player motivation.

[OgtheDim]

The Province of Ontario doesn't have a plan to deliver vaccines - look on their website, there literally is no plan, just categories. June 20 is a wish that was blurted out by Hillier. The plan is being written now (or maybe not) and so scepticism is in order.

(PS I looked up the information because of family needs ie ill relatives who need to be vaccinated at home which is why I know there isn't a plan - unlike BC which actually has a plan and reasonable details available)

Oh, I hear ya - I'm H&S manager for my workplace & its been 13 months of watching this province bungle things.

However, the plan is categories to decide eligibility & then have the PHU's & docs & pharmacies (the people who know how to get this stuff done as they do it every year with the flu shots) get this stuff done.

E.g. vaccinations happening in Toronto for eligible people https://vaccineto.ca/sites

I don't trust the province to skrew to not skrew this up somehow because the volume of vaccines is going to be enormous compared to now.

But, things are happening.

[eustacchio]

Not pointless at all. You get 500 loud supporters in there - that energy would give the player the push they need to win a game.

A move like this isn't about $ and it's not about getting people in just to have bums in seats.

This would 100% be about player motivation.

You're not getting 500 coordinated people in one section though, and I'm sure they're not going to condone singing/cheering.

I wonder if it wouldn't be more of a distraction if they can pick out individual comments more easily.

[jabbronies]

You're not getting 500 coordinated people in one section though, and I'm sure they're not going to condone singing/cheering.

I wonder if it wouldn't be more of a distraction if they can pick out individual comments more easily.

No it won't be in 1 section - but still. 500 people in as close proximity as possible - cheering - some singing - just bringing energy - is way better than 0 people.

[eustacchio]

No it won't be in 1 section - but still. 500 people in as close proximity as possible - cheering - some singing - just bringing energy - is way better than 0 people.

I want to agree with you on principle. I want to be back doing those things.

I don't think the people at the Montreal games added much to the atmosphere. Maybe it made a big difference on the field.

[MightyDM]

Nobody has less faith in the government of Ontario than I do, but there's a world of difference between 'every person who wants their first shot by June 20th will have it' and 'we've vaccinated so few people by November 19th that there is still such a threat of our healthcare system being overloaded and our oldest people dying that we need to limit attendance to outdoor sporting events'. That isn't just some logistic issues and poor planning, that is something has gone catastrophically wrong with the global supply of vaccinations

Would I bet my life that everyone who wants a shot in Ontario has their first shot by June 20th? Absolutely not. But I'd 100% bet my life that we're there by November

Yes, I agree and it is very likely that we will have extensive vaccinations by august, almost certainly by september. June 20 was made up in a press conference.

[MightyDM]

Oh, I hear ya - I'm H&S manager for my workplace & its been 13 months of watching this province bungle things.

However, the plan is categories to decide eligibility & then have the PHU's & docs & pharmacies (the people who know how to get this stuff done as they do it every year with the flu shots) get this stuff done.

E.g. vaccinations happening in Toronto for eligible people https://vaccineto.ca/sites

I don't trust the province to skrew to not skrew this up somehow because the volume of vaccines is going to be enormous compared to now.

But, things are happening.

Agreed. Despite what Hillier says, not because of what he says, is really the case I think.

[MightyDM]

No it won't be in 1 section - but still. 500 people in as close proximity as possible - cheering - some singing - just bringing energy - is way better than 0 people.

In BMO I think you need way more than that, if they are spread out, unfortunately

[OgtheDim]

I suspect they would go with a % of capacity can be allowed in, lets say 10% - that's 3K of people & you can get quite a bit of noise with that many.

[MightyDM]

I suspect they would go with a % of capacity can be allowed in, lets say 10% - that's 3K of people & you can get quite a bit of noise with that many. Agreed re %. Likely in stages

[RedsYNWA]

Well the way our boy toy Trudeau is going.... we might catch up to South Sudan when it comes to vaccinations
We will be back at BMO in 2022

[ensco]

Hey this is a familiar face we haven’t heard from in a while!

Check out this interview, he actually has heard that we are going to be seated according to vaccine. Astra Zeneca zone, Pfizer zone etc.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DLzxrzFCyOs

[OgtheDim]

https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON

Over a million doses so far in Ontario - could talk about why the US, UK & Europe are about 10 days ahead of us in terms of doses per 100 but that's another story.

A lot of vaccines are arriving - supply isn't a problem. Distribution is OK in Ontario if a little wonky due to trying to fit a provincial standard into local conditions.

Nothing happened this week to indicate to me that August isn't doable.

In the meantime though, April is going to be hellish - stay at home orders are coming back to most of the province and ICU's are not cleared yet from the second wave. There is a reason why the Army put in a mobile hospital unit at Sunnybrook last week.

[JonO]

https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=ON

Over a million doses so far in Ontario - could talk about why the US, UK & Europe are about 10 days ahead of us in terms of doses per 100 but that's another story.

A lot of vaccines are arriving - supply isn't a problem. Distribution is OK in Ontario if a little wonky due to trying to fit a provincial standard into local conditions.

Nothing happened this week to indicate to me that August isn't doable.

In the meantime though, April is going to be hellish - stay at home orders are coming back to most of the province and ICU's are not cleared yet from the second wave. There is a reason why the Army put in a mobile hospital unit at Sunnybrook last week.
According to Ford, our capacity to vaccinate is 3x our current supply, so supply is still an issue. Bigger constraint right now seems to be distribution. The confusion around registration is disappointing. A vaccination registration system should have been implemented months ago, so that high risk patients could have been prioritized in advance.

I agree that April may be a mess. I keep an eye on the hospitalizations and ICU numbers, and they are going back up, which is not good

[OgtheDim]

Yeh, that capacity amount discussion is going to be mute in a couple of weeks. Which is why I'm still saying August. Local HPA's are pretty good at this, if the province just lets them get on with it.

[Afra]

I wonder as things progress if insurance companies will require screening vaccine passports to enter large venues when capacity numbers rise and people sit closer to each other. Without getting into a 'for' or 'against' vaccine passports/certificates... I believe that if they are required, it will be a gong show as we wait for the government to develop something. Other countries have started and it could become the norm for international travel.... but our leaders will wait until people start getting refused entry before they start a system.

[Mark TFC]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.wakingthered.com/platform/amp/2021/3/15/22332041/mlse-moves-one-step-closer-to-allowing-fans-back-in-stadiums

[JonO]

I wonder as things progress if insurance companies will require screening vaccine passports to enter large venues when capacity numbers rise and people sit closer to each other. Without getting into a 'for' or 'against' vaccine passports/certificates... I believe that if they are required, it will be a gong show as we wait for the government to develop something. Other countries have started and it could become the norm for international travel.... but our leaders will wait until people start getting refused entry before they start a system.
Personally, I don't see vaccine passports being required for local events - I think that would be a shit show. The province will likely just wait until we are at around 80% vaccinated (or whatever the target number is) before opening things up more widely.

International travel is another story. Again, hopefully someone is considering this, because I can see some countries requiring vaccines for travel. Personally, they have the electronic travel authorization/electronic Visas that they can already electronically associate with your passport. They should be able to create an electronic vaccine authorization that they can associate with your passport.

[Afra]

Personally, I don't see vaccine passports being required for local events - I think that would be a shit show. The province will likely just wait until we are at around 80% vaccinated (or whatever the target number is) before opening things up more widely.

International travel is another story. Again, hopefully someone is considering this, because I can see some countries requiring vaccines for travel. Personally, they have the electronic travel authorization/electronic Visas that they can already electronically associate with your passport. They should be able to create an electronic vaccine authorization that they can associate with your passport.

Either way looks like a potentially long wait at the moment. I sure miss being in the stands and will gladly support as soon as they let me..... my wife gets annoyed when I am yelling and singing at the TV all the time!

[leedsandTFC]

based on that article, there could be games with limited capacity a lot sooner than anyone anticipated...

[rydermike]

If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/

[Derko]

Well the way our boy toy Trudeau is going.... we might catch up to South Sudan when it comes to vaccinations
We will be back at BMO in 2022

This is unfair, you know that Canada is tied to offshore vaccine manufacturing, I worked in the pharmaceutical sector in a little section of Mississauga referred to 'Pill Hill' in the 1970's when Canada had plenty of pharmaceutical firms in country, the firms where asking for huge tax breaks for R and D, but both Liberal and PC governments caved to public whining and pressure not to give the tax breaks, so the pharmaceutical companies left the country. The reality is Canada has to wait it's turn. Just my opinion of the 'Blame Game', have a great day :scarf:

[fergiejr]

If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/

This is way too cool.

[OgtheDim]

https://twitter.com/KristianJack/status/1371961557819793409

[Blindside16]

https://twitter.com/KristianJack/status/1371961557819793409


I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022

[DavemTFC]

If you're missing BMO, take a look at what some fans made (10 photos)

https://www.instagram.com/p/CMfA3J7BFpd/
Holy accurate looking

[BendItLikeGio]

I agree :( !! even if borders open up, as we all know toronto and Ontario are wayyyy behind compared to the rest of the country on opening things up and having business pick up :( so we'll see how it goes, but 2022 or hey 2023 maybe :( sooooo sad were so slow and dragging this out



I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022

[Oldtimer]

I still would not hold my breath. With the province officially declaring a start of the third wave today and the fact that the varients seem to be on the rise, I just wouldn't get my hopes up too much. Nothing will change until the border situation changes and who knows when that will be. Even then with the border open to allow teams to travel in, it will still be up to local health officials to determine if fans can attend games. I cannot recall where I saw it as it was back in the summer last year but concerts and major events would be in the group of last things to open up. The city has also cancelled all outdoor events out to July first (including Canada day celebrations) which at best pushes out having fans in the stadium until at least the end of July or early to mid August at the earliest. I am cautiously optimistic but in reality I am not expecting to be back inside BMO before 2022

If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.

[Yohan]

I dont expect the border to be open not before fall.

Though this might change pending how the spring roll out of vaccine goes in Canada and there is a big pressure to open by summer for tourists.

[Canary10]

If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.

It's a two way street. Canada also has to agree to open the border to the US, which is still getting 50,000-60,000 new cases a day. A big variable is how fast vaccination brings those cases down in the US.

[OgtheDim]

Biden administration basically said yesterday that once the US is done vaccinations, they will be chugging their capacity all at us & Mexico pronto - they want that border open ASAP for trade.

Euro zone also beginning to institute a vaccination passport (something many of us would know with the yellow papers we used to have with us).

[leedsandTFC]

If I was Joe Biden, no way would I open up the border anytime soon. The US does in one day as many vaccinations as Canada has done total from December until now. We'd have to have a monumental change in the amount of vaccines that we are importing to get to a fall re-opening.


we have over 1 million per week scheduled for delivery every week into the country, the province's plan based on vaccine delivery is to vaccinate almost 10 mill by july.

people will be surprised on here, we'll have limited capacity by julyish likely.

[ensco]

There are big unknowns here that will drive this

- what is the delivery schedule of the J&J vaccine?
- is Europe about to stop exporting altogether? (This is a MAJOR issue over there)
- is this US really going to just ship excess vaccine? That isn’t the US health system's usual model, I’d expect they could also simply make Canadians and Mexicans of means visit them to get the shots - if you think there are 20M Mexicans/Canadians who would pay $100 for that, that's 2 billion dollars in it for them if they do it that way)

You tell me the answer the these questions, I will tell you whether it's August 2021 or March 2022

[JonO]

There are big unknowns here that will drive this

- what is the delivery schedule of the J&J vaccine?
- is Europe about to stop exporting altogether? (This is a MAJOR issue over there)
- is this US really going to just ship excess vaccine? That isn’t the US health system's usual model, I’d expect they could also simply make Canadians and Mexicans of means visit them to get the shots - if you think there are 20M Mexicans/Canadians who would pay $100 for that, that's 2 billion dollars in it for them if they do it that way)

You tell me the answer the these questions, I will tell you whether it's August 2021 or March 2022
$100/shot + travel cost + "quarantine" upon return = lots of time and money. But the more importantly, what are the costs for the US to distribute and administer the vaccine? I think the cost of a shot is $20 on its own.

I think the more likely scenario is that they will sell any excess doses to us and Mexico (and others). From what I could gather online, Pfizer is manufacturing (or has at least pledged to manufacture) about $50 mil doses/month for the US. (Disclaimer - not 100% sure if this is accurate). So - I am not sure when this actually gets to us, but the simplest way is simply to sell it directly to CA/MX.

[Oldtimer]

we have over 1 million per week scheduled for delivery every week into the country, the province's plan based on vaccine delivery is to vaccinate almost 10 mill by july.

people will be surprised on here, we'll have limited capacity by julyish likely.

From what we've seen so far, that the contracts are secret, and having seen some details of the one contract that only came out because a US company filed details (as part of their reporting requirements), the contracts do not provide for solid delivery amounts or dates, they are merely open orders that the companies will fill on a "reasonably commercially sensible" basis.

Given that none of the previously "secured" amounts have actually come true from December until now, pardon me if I treat with extreme skepticism any dubious claims by the federal politicians. I'll be glad if I see it, but I'm certainly not expecting to get two doses (which is what counts for re-opening, not one dose) by July, probably not August, maybe not this September, and maybe not this year.

The only exception is if Joe Biden bails us out, but even then Mexico has a more compelling case for US assistance than does Canada. I hope he sends some our way, but I'm not holding my breath.

[OgtheDim]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1372580072515850253


No word if there is an option to sign.

Doesn't have to go through allocation order.

[Oldtimer]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1372580072515850253


No word if there is an option to sign.

Doesn't have to go through allocation order.

Should help a bit.

[Blindside16]

https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1372580072515850253


No word if there is an option to sign.

Doesn't have to go through allocation order.

Still 2 weeks away

[Auzzy]

From what we've seen so far, that the contracts are secret, and having seen some details of the one contract that only came out because a US company filed details (as part of their reporting requirements), the contracts do not provide for solid delivery amounts or dates, they are merely open orders that the companies will fill on a "reasonably commercially sensible" basis.

Given that none of the previously "secured" amounts have actually come true from December until now, pardon me if I treat with extreme skepticism any dubious claims by the federal politicians. I'll be glad if I see it, but I'm certainly not expecting to get two doses (which is what counts for re-opening, not one dose) by July, probably not August, maybe not this September, and maybe not this year.

The only exception is if Joe Biden bails us out, but even then Mexico has a more compelling case for US assistance than does Canada. I hope he sends some our way, but I'm not holding my breath.

I believe this is incorrect. The secured amounts first promised in December are arriving; in fact significantly more than that.

There was a couple of weeks delay earlier in the year, as Pfizer upgraded their European plant and Moderna had problems securing raw materials in Europe. That messed up delivery estimates at the time, and affected many countries including Canada. Those delays will be more than made up by the end of March. The detailed delivery schedules are generally not contracted; I believe the quarterly amounts are under contract.

One of the first & consistent promises I remember were a total of 6 million doses of Pfizer/BioNTech plus Moderna by the end of March. For example: "In total, six million Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are expected to be delivered to Canada by the end of March 2021."
Published Dec. 15th: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/moderna-vaccine-in-canada-december-1.5841929

"Initially, the country is only anticipating receiving up to four million of those doses by March 2021." (That included only Pfizer/BioNTech.)
Published Dec. 7th: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-to-get-first-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-doses-before-end-of-december-1.5220229

"Canada has contracted to receive two million doses from Moderna by the end of March, and 40 million by the end of 2021."
Published Dec. 15th: https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/12/15/canada-moderna-vaccines-december/

See also the chart & text in this article: a total of approx. 3 million vaccinated by the end of March (assuming full vaccination = two doses each = total of 6 million doses).
Published Dec. 15th: https://www.macleans.ca/society/health/how-realistic-are-government-timelines-for-vaccine-rollout-a-k-a-when-can-i-get-it/


As of today, the feds have delivered almost 4.8 million vaccine doses to the provinces; already getting pretty darn close to the promised 6 million by end of March: https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

Of the total so far, 500k are AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD which are above the commitments made in December.

Since approx. Feb. 18th, deliveries have been back on track to meet the end of March distribution deadline: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-vaccine-update-feb-18-1.5918175
There have been no changes or delays since then, other than perhaps a day or two when there was a snowstorm in the US affecting flights.

Recently there was a rumour of a new Moderna delay, but both Moderna and the government have denied that. We shall see.

More details here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/prevention-risks/covid-19-vaccine-treatment/vaccine-rollout.html#a4

Pfizer/BioNTech distributed so far:3,140,664; forecast total before March 28: almost 4.8 million; 800k more than promised in December. (Plus another 1.2 million before April 4.)

Moderna distributed so far: 1,128,300; forecast total before March 28: over 2.4 million; over 400k more than promised in December.

So on schedule to have 1.7 million more vaccine doses available in Canada before the end of March than promised. Of course things could go wrong again, but deliveries since mid-February have been pretty well as planned. Even if delivery slips a bit, I believe we will easily hit 6 million doses before April.


I don't believe the rest of your estimates are realistic either. It seems Canada will have enough doses of just Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to give all Canadians over 16 two doses before the end of September. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD and possibly J&J will likely allow that to be accelerated. As there is now significant competition, and Canada has approved all 4 of the major vaccines, the companies have an incentive to deliver as quickly as possible, or lose the sales to a competitor. (For example Canada has already negotiated accelerated deliveries of Pfizer between April and June, compared with earlier estimates.) Many things can still go wrong, but with AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD already flowing, and J&J waiting in the wings, there should at least be enough to meet the September promise.

And as many have mentioned: all the US vaccine factories will have massive spare capacity starting May or June. They could prepare enough doses to finish off Canada within a few weeks. (And I don't believe Ensco's suggestion for a moment, that the US won't deliver to Canada and will expect Canadians to travel down there. Not with China and Russia playing vaccine diplomacy in a big way. The vaccine companies want to make money fast by selling millions of doses at a time before the competition does; while Biden & Co want to return to some international normalcy.)

Hopefully the provinces can get all the doses into arms. However as we see Public Health, pharmacies and doctors ramping up, in addition to the hospitals which started the effort, I believe it will get done.

Big question mark is still the kids. Only one vaccine allowed for 16+ yet; the others are 18+. Moderna started trials with 12-18 a while ago; and just added trials (incl. Canadian kids) 6 months to 12 years. I'm not sure about the other vaccines. I don't know if any of that will be sorted by the summer or fall.

[MightyDM]

despite the utter shambles of the Ontario vaccine programme, the pace of vaccines is picking up. i now am more optimistic than i was that BMO will open in September. All subject to the thrid wave of variants though, and that is going to be a closely run thing here.

[Oldtimer]

I don't believe the rest of your estimates are realistic either. It seems Canada will have enough doses of just Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna to give all Canadians over 16 two doses before the end of September. AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD and possibly J&J will likely allow that to be accelerated. As there is now significant competition, and Canada has approved all 4 of the major vaccines, the companies have an incentive to deliver as quickly as possible, or lose the sales to a competitor. (For example Canada has already negotiated accelerated deliveries of Pfizer between April and June, compared with earlier estimates.) Many things can still go wrong, but with AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD already flowing, and J&J waiting in the wings, there should at least be enough to meet the September promise.


I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.

[leedsandTFC]

I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.

the US has been able to do 4.5 million in a day.

ontario has capacity for 150K+ a day, and is ramping up towards that.

"We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September"

dunno where these random numbers are coming from, but ontario is starting to receive massive amounts of vaccines and probably 9.5 mill people (everyone over 60 + everyone with other medical conditions + people who can't work at home) will be vaccinated by late june.

this is why they are probably planning limited capacity games over the summer, likely starting in July, moving to fuller stadium in the fall.

[Oldtimer]

the US has been able to do 4.5 million in a day.

ontario has capacity for 150K+ a day, and is ramping up towards that.

"We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September"

dunno where these random numbers are coming from, but ontario is starting to receive massive amounts of vaccines and probably 9.5 mill people (everyone over 60 + everyone with other medical conditions + people who can't work at home) will be vaccinated by late june.

this is why they are probably planning limited capacity games over the summer, likely starting in July, moving to fuller stadium in the fall.

Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

So it will all depend on the ramp-up.

[leedsandTFC]

Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

So it will all depend on the ramp-up.


and like 4 weeks ago, it was projected to take about 5 years.

[Auzzy]

I hope you are right. I'm not all that confident, and even if they get a sudden flood of vaccine, it's unrealistic to expect the provinces to administer it in a few weeks. The US, which has managed vaccination much better than Canada can only do 3M per day. We would have to do 240K per day starting now to get it done by September. Give it some more delays at any point and it will become impossible.

Nothing is definite, but I'm feeling pretty hopefully. My mother-in-law got her first shot a couple of weeks ago. A couple of my colleagues just got their AZ shots for the 60-65 crowd. AZ now allowed for 65+ as well (as it has been in the UK throughout). 1.5 million additional doses of AZ arriving from the US before the end of March. Meaning a total of 9.2 million vaccine doses before the end of March: that's 3.2 million or over 50% more than promised by that date.



Ontario did 61K yesterday. They could have done more if the vaccines were available.

At current rates it would take 188 days to give one shot to Ontario (11.5M Ontario population / 61K), that works out to 376 days for 2 shots (source for 61K: Premier Ford's briefing March 19).

So it will all depend on the ramp-up.

LOL. Vaccines are available. Ontario had 360,000 unused doses this morning. 180,000 more doses of Pfizer arriving in Ontario by the end of this week (or may have already arrived). Ontario could have done at least 50% to 100% more per day over the last week w/o ever running out. Hopefully their registration website works a bit better now; I've heard horror stories from friends. Not sure why they waited until March 15th to set that up; could have been setup and tested last November. Meanwhile call center staff hired last minute with 2 hours of training, no idea how to deal with seniors with mobility issues etc. Luckily most of the public health units are still using their own registration systems so the provincial one isn't as badly overloaded as it could have been.

But public health units and pharmacies will be able to do their thing; they're experienced. Probably Moderna available via pharmacies starting April as well. There will be hiccups for sure but it will get done.

[Derko]

I have a slightly different outlook on the horror stories of booking vaccines, I know of 2 seniors in particular whom can barely open up an email went online and booked their vaccines and get their first vaccine shot without a problem with the system, I wonder if it is people trying to jump the queue or filling in incorrect information, or just not following the step by step instructions. Maybe they were just lucky, and they are Ontario residents.

[Auzzy]

I have a slightly different outlook on the horror stories of booking vaccines, I know of 2 seniors in particular whom can barely open up an email went online and booked their vaccines and get their first vaccine shot without a problem with the system, I wonder if it is people trying to jump the queue or filling in incorrect information, or just not following the step by step instructions. Maybe they were just lucky, and they are Ontario residents.

That's good to hear. Do you know if they used the provincial system (which Toronto is also using), or one of the local registration systems? Things may have settled down on the provincial website, apparently it was overloaded and had some bugs in the beginning. But the load can change day-to-day & hour-to-hour. My sister-in-law had no trouble booking for my mother-in-law in Guelph, using their local system (but my mother-in-law would not have been able to do it herself).

[Red CB Toronto]

Plus with the AZ vaccine now being used for everyone over 60 as of Monday and being administered at Pharmacies things will definitely be opening up. Also remember these appointments are made through each individual location, not the provincial signup system. To be honest its kind of the wild west. If you can help someone get one who had not of yet that will what is needed. I hope people do not start vaccine shopping, holding out for a specific one.