The 2020 season is over

[RedsYNWA]

There is zero chance public gatherings of more than 20K people will be allowed this season. Scrap this season & start the next season in FEB 2021. I want my money back to help feed my family as this is not getting better anytime soon

My family is 100% unemployed and I foresee a big depression with mostly only gov't workers having a job & those will also be screwed when the the gov't runs out of money next year.

[OgtheDim]

There was an email opt out for members for the March payment. I suspect the same will be provided for the April one. Contact a rep.

[Ultra & Proud]

Season will happen for sure in the fall but will be some kind of weird tournament. No fans for sure and probably not next year either unless a vaccine comes up. I see some health regulator recommendations that all large events be cancelled until at least Fall 2021.

I assume we're not getting a refund but it would be nice if we got something for our season ticket money better than a crappy scarf in a bag. Team is owned by the two main TV providers so toss a MLS live thing on a channel or streaming site and let us SSHs have access to it. Toss up our history at least for now. I would watch a lot of old stuff on demand. They know we're not seeing matches this season so hearing something, anything would be nice.

[Ponderosa]

There was an email opt out for members for the March payment. I suspect the same will be provided for the April one. Contact a rep.

Yes but if I understand correctly, it is just going to roll into and inflate the May and June payments. Not really much of a help to those of us whom entire households are out of work with no recall likely.

MLS should to the right thing and call off the season and MLSE should give everyone a refund as soon as they can get them out the door with an option of credits to the next season just as several of the subscription theatres have done. Right now I need to feed my family, and the four grand MLSE is sitting on would feed us for months. They are holding thousands of dollars with no games in sight and no interest.

If they do end up with an abbreviated season let people choose or not whether they want to attend and charge them at that point.

[OgtheDim]

There's some speculation that North American sports leagues can't cancel because insurance only covers events as they come up - as long as there is a potential for a game to occur as deemed by the insurance companies, the insurance people won't let them cancel dates. Which is why the dates to restart they are setting are laughably close and will likely remain so until the fall.

I agree that it is highly unlikely we see fans in seats until at least 2021, and I actually think 2022 is more likely.

I also think teams have to start thinking about the cash strapped nature of their members and allow people to opt out during this time.

Specifically to TFC

Membership is a monthly fee for a number of games per season. Until they admit they can not do the amount of games in the season, they won't give people money back. Not sure the league would let them do that unilaterally.

[Red CB Toronto]

There's some speculation that North American sports leagues can't cancel because insurance only covers events as they come up - as long as there is a potential for a game to occur as deemed by the insurance companies, the insurance people won't let them cancel dates. Which is why the dates to restart they are setting are laughably close and will likely remain so until the fall.

I agree that it is highly unlikely we see fans in seats until at least 2021, and I actually think 2022 is more likely.

I also think teams have to start thinking about the cash strapped nature of their members and allow people to opt out during this time.

Specifically to TFC

Membership is a monthly fee for a number of games per season. Until they admit they can not do the amount of games in the season, they won't give people money back. Not sure the league would let them do that unilaterally.

I believe MLSE should be giving back cash to all the season seat holders, one for the Leafs is no different than TFC, Raptors to an Argos one. Its the good thing to do?

[Lil'John]

I have no opinion, but I am intrigued by the difference between the comments on this site, and those of my European club (Hibs).
On the Hibs chat sites all the talk is about what the supporters can do to help the club in these difficult times.
To raise much needed cash, the club has put 2020-21 season renewals on sale early, and over 3500 have already been sold. Not bad for a club that averages c18,000 a game.
And I can ensure you that Hibs support is mostly from the 'wrong' end of Edinburgh, and anything but wealthy.
On this site the talk is about refunds.
I guess this is a result of the difference between the North American franchise model and the European models, which result in a much greater feeling of ownership of the club among supporters.
Again, I'm not criticizing the comments above, just observing!

[Joe Kool]

I have no opinion, but I am intrigued by the difference between the comments on this site, and those of my European club (Hibs).
On the Hibs chat sites all the talk is about what the supporters can do to help the club in these difficult times.
To raise much needed cash, the club has put 2020-21 season renewals on sale early, and over 3500 have already been sold. Not bad for a club that averages c18,000 a game.
And I can ensure you that Hibs support is mostly from the 'wrong' end of Edinburgh, and anything but wealthy.
On this site the talk is about refunds.
I guess this is a result of the difference between the North American franchise model and the European models, which result in a much greater feeling of ownership of the club among supporters.
Again, I'm not criticizing the comments above, just observing!

Here it is a business first. They do well and they charge us more. They do bad and they reduce our price. They don’t play any games then they should give us our money back. I can tell you for sure if I am not doing well financially they will not reduce my price to help me....why should I pay them extra to help them if they start hurting?

[ensco]

I feel for Ponderosa and anyone else like him/her. A lot of real supporters are going to need to take a pause here, regardless of whenever this restarts.

There is a pretty widespread attempt by corporations to duck refunds and just provide future exchanges. Even in the face of laws requiring otherwise. Air Canada claims it is an issue of survival for them - which it may be.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/04/09/the-fight-to-get-refunds-from-canadian-airlines-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

This isn’t a survival issue for MLSE so they have the opportunity to do the right thing. I wouldn’t say that they have ever shown much leadership, sadly, on business/moral issues, given a chance.

[Joe Kool]

People vote with their dollars spent. If MLSE and other companies don’t do right by their customers it can affect future business with them. If TFC season is cut in any way and there is not a proper arrangement by MLSE I will become a supporter from home as much as I love being at the games. I am sure I am not the only one.

[TFC07]

Honestly, I will be open not renewing my season tickets next year. Even though I got 2 months left of payments, it's the principle that matter the most to me here.

MLSE is multi-billion dollar corporation that can easily at least pause monthly payments if they wanted to.

[OgtheDim]

Until MLS calls the season off (and I still think they are being pressured by some of the owners who's livlihoods are not as secure as they were 3 months ago) there won't be refunds by one team.

Part of the issue here is the media access to Team Presidents (they guys who should be asked these questions) is of the every few weeks "so how's the isolation going for you" variety.

Its times like this that the ISC should be putting pressure on the league.

BUT, this is also time for the supporters groups to start asking questions as well. I'm actually surprised there has not been talk from the more vocal groups within the league and from some of the more activist journalists like @MLSist.

All the discussion has been about the PT staff, which needs to be done. But, there is a story here and a supporters issue.

[ensco]

The issue of morality in business life disappeared for decades - maybe it's time it made a comeback.

The whole issue of “prepaying” as a part and parcel of seasons tickets has been kind of an increasingly abusive one in sports for decades.

There are truly not very many businesses where you systematically get paid far in advance of delivering the service or product. Most businesses need working capital (they need funding from banks or investors to pay for the product and service, with the money from customers only coming upon delivery). It's worth thinking about why sports or airlines are different. One obvious reason: because every sports team or airline is a form of monopoly.

Given current ticketing/technology systems, there is really no reason the funds aren’t charged just before the event for any airline ticket or sports or theatrical event, and I think there will be votes in it for future political candidates who point out that what passes for “normal practice” in these industries is really coercive and should be restricted.

If I were czar: I think the airline or MLSE should put a hold on your credit card and there could be reasonable (ie 20%) penalties for cancelling in advance, but actual payment should only happen two weeks in advance.

EDIT: Just reading about the Ticketmaster fiasco on this now. Their behaviour has been so bad that it gives me hope that there may now be the political climate to actually fix this.

[eustacchio]

I work in ticketing (well did before all of this) - part of me thinks that the initial announcement about not refunding postponed events had to do with all of the season tickets that TM deals with.

Seasons wouldn't be cancelled, they'd be postponed - so no refunds.

I'm really struggling to think of how ticketing survives if there are no events for a year and everybody needs their money back (which is understandable) and consequently how live events would function. There are hundreds of ticketing services out there - but not at the scale of TM (or even my former employer). It took us nearly two years to deploy our software of our biggest clients 40 theatres.

[ensco]

I'm really struggling to think of how ticketing survives if there are no events for a year and everybody needs their money back (which is understandable) and consequently how live events would function. There are hundreds of ticketing services out there - but not at the scale of TM (or even my former employer). It took us nearly two years to deploy our software of our biggest clients 40 theatres.



What makes live events different from every other entertainment business? As a for instance, when movies or TV shows are made, the production company is paid when they deliver. The makers of shows finance the creation of show by borrowing (or getting investors) - there is a contract, but the buyers have outs - maybe at a cost, but they can walk.

How is this different?

Also tickets should be in people's names (like airline tickets) - the whole thing with the scalping/bots needs to stop.

Sorry, I know this is your livelihood, but maybe you could explain to a layman why this whole ticketing ecosystem shouldn't just be allowed to fail.

[MightyDM]

Personally, my family and I are in a lucky position to still have one person working, so I am not financially worried about the refund, but morally and ethically they should be starting to refund - all events in Toronto through the end of June are cancelled so a reasonable position would be for MLSE at least to refund the ten games scheduled before the end of June - of course they can say "they may still happen" - but we all know that is very unlikely to fit an entire season in starting in July, particularly in a world where there will still be the virus with no vaccine. How are they going to play a contact sport when you cannot be within six feet of each other? It is simply untenable.

I got tickets in 2007 to ensure we had a local team, and have been rewarded amply with what football brings - heartbreak, heartbreak, more heartbreak, frustration, heartbreak again - and now success. I get what the Hibs supporters are doing and think it is fantastic - but MLSE doesn't need interest free loans from TFC supporters. It isn't 2007, but it is MLSE, a mega wealthy corporation with mega wealthy shareholders and wealthy executives.

This period is really showing the ugly side of our modern economy, and and the insatiable greed of many at the top - Ruth's Chris steakhouse chain claiming the small business benefit from the US government for example to pay executives their bloated salaries - money that should have gone to small business but could not because it ran out. I'm not prepared to jump on MLSE yet, because being part of the league complicates things and many owners are not in their position, but keeping the payments made by your most loyal supporters (season ticket holders) for games that clearly are never going to be played is pretty close to the line. They need to deal with this soon.

[TFC1986]

Well Quebec has announced no events until Aug 31.
So Montreal impact won't have any home games really.
I'll be following what they'll be doing for their season seat holders.
As well reading articles that Ontario has reached its peak in the pandemic. Articles like this, is whats going to reignite the COVID-19. On my way to work and back I heard it on the radio several times.

[eustacchio]

What makes live events different from every other entertainment business? As a for instance, when movies or TV shows are made, the production company is paid when they deliver. The makers of shows finance the creation of show by borrowing (or getting investors) - there is a contract, but the buyers have outs - maybe at a cost, but they can walk.

How is this different?

Also tickets should be in people's names (like airline tickets) - the whole thing with the scalping/bots needs to stop.

Sorry, I know this is your livelihood, but maybe you could explain to a layman why this whole ticketing ecosystem shouldn't just be allowed to fail.

No need to apologize at all. I agree tickets should be in people's names - it's a requirement of the FA so we have that functionality (you can even require photos of every attendee). You cannot buy tickets without associating each of them to an account. I think doing the mobile tickets is an attempt at making that happen though in a different way.

I think that TM should be allowed to fail for sure, I just think that failing this way will be the issue. Globally, a lot of other companies depend on TM and I think it would be like dominoes, especially for the smaller venues.

Live events aren't different than other entertainment productions - all of those investors have contracts and outs too. The difference is that production companies are still making money - they're putting out new content still. People are renting movies and streaming. Nobody is demanding their money back for their cable subscriptions. There isn't much happening in terms of live events - some theatres are streaming shows but you can't charge full price for that. There are very few new tickets sales and everybody else wants their money back.

[Joe Kool]

Just talked to a TFC FO guy. Refunds will be made available for sure but they have to wait for MLS to officially cancel games. Right now they are still being told by the league office that games will be rescheduled only so far so they won't act until the official word comes. Just thought I would mention since some thought there was a possibility of no refund for the games not played. We all know the official word will be coming but until then, we keep paying for our membership and use their deferred payment thing if needed. I was also told that there is a chance for the payment this month to change. Not sure exactly what that meant. For people that paid for single game tickets through Ticketmaster, I guess it gets a lot more complicated in terms of refunds since buying through Ticketmaster instead of directly from the club like the memberships do.

[Bushmancan]

Hope everyone is OK, on the LAFC redit page....

https://i.redd.it/5jhpcc5e18u41.jpg

[TFC07]

Some leagues in Europe will be playing in empty stadiums until next spring.

I am going to assume same is going to happen with MLS as well.

https://sports.yahoo.com/if-german-soccer-cant-welcome-back-fans-until-next-spring-where-does-that-leave-the-nba-and-nfl-185931793.html?src=rss

[Auzzy]

I don't know if the season is over for sure, but in the meantime this is genuinely an awesome way to make use of an empty arena: MLSE preparing up 10,000 meals per day, for shelters, community agencies who feed the vulnerable, and health-care workers.

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/04/24/scotiabank-arena-turns-into-giant-kitchen-as-mlse-prepares-10000-meals-a-day-for-front-line-health-care-workers.html

[nfitz]

Some leagues in Europe will be playing in empty stadiums until next spring.

I am going to assume same is going to happen with MLS as well.That only works if the financial model provides enough revenue from TV contracts to make it work, combined with possible concessions from players.

Presumably a league in Europe that get's 90% of it's revenue from TV contracts is going to be more likely, than a league that gets most of its revenue from the box office.

I'm not sure where MLS (and particularly many of the US teams that don't have national TV contracts) fit on that spectrum.

Seems unlikely that we'll be back at BMO any time soon though - but given the place was as full as other season openers on March 7 - did anyone actually hear about anyone contracting Covid from that match?

Not really a big deal ... I paid my tickets in full months ago. It's certainly not in my budgeting ... even if they give an option for a refund, I'd sooner just put them towards my 2021 or 2022 (depending when we resume) tickets.

Though I'd appreciate the money from the 3 Jays games I'd bought tickets to ... though currently I officially hold tickets to the currently planned season opener on Victoria Day weekend ... (as if ...). But again - the money was already spent.

And look at all the money I'm saving from not drinking at BMO Field! :)

[ensco]

I sort of get what the NBA is talking about, a short playoff sprint in Vegas, in a venue purpose built to mask (or even take advantage of ) the absence of fans. They are talking about building, in a Convention Center, a purpose built court with 100 built in cameras.

But the Bundesliga is making a mistake: playing the games in cavernous stadiums without fans, on an ongoing basis, is depressing. It tarnishes the brand, and people won’t watch that in anything like the numbers they think. My suspicion anyway.

[James17930]

I sort of get what the NBA is talking about, a short playoff sprint in Vegas, in a venue purpose built to mask (or even take advantage of ) the absence of fans. They are talking about building, in a Convention Center, a purpose built court with 100 built in cameras.

But the Bundesliga is making a mistake: playing the games in cavernous stadiums without fans, on an ongoing basis, is depressing. It tarnishes the brand, and people won’t watch that in anything like the numbers they think. My suspicion anyway.

If over a million people in the US will watch Taiwanese baseball simply because it's the only baseball on, I'm sure many millions around the world will tune in to watch the Bundesliga when it's the only football on.

Hell, Canadians even have a reason to cheer for Bayern, if they didn't already.

[Auzzy]

I watch the news in Germany closely, and there’s a massive debate about the Bundesliga plans. Whether they go ahead with restarting the league soon w/o fans or not, either will lead to a huge controversy. We should avoid the impression that’s an easy or done deal.

[ensco]

If over a million people in the US will watch Taiwanese baseball simply because it's the only baseball on, I'm sure many millions around the world will tune in to watch the Bundesliga when it's the only football on.

Hell, Canadians even have a reason to cheer for Bayern, if they didn't already.

I get novelty viewing. The first Bundesliga game would draw massive ratings. But the question is, how many times will casual fans watch anything that feels insincere and not “right”? (Casuals are the vast majority of those big TV audiences.)

These guys are making a big assumption about the TV ratings. There is a serious risk. Sports are not just sports. They have meaning beyond the competition. They are an event, a happening. TV sells you the “you are there” illusion.

They are effing with the magic if they do this for more than a few weeks. The magic trick falls apart when the stadium is empty.

[MightyDM]

the dutch have cancelled the rest of their season. coming soon to a league near you...

[OgtheDim]

NBA's biggest mistake is some team's can't practice in an area under lockdown while those that are able to do so may be doing so based on poor local political decisions. Like, Georgia & Florida are not exactly the best examples here. And giving a competitive advantage to a team because its political leadership is stupid is...kinda dumb.

NFL is doing it right - no practices or meetings until every team can do so. MLS will hopefully follow suit.

The NHL are not quite in denial but they have been suggesting Toronto as a venue in June for their mini playoff format & if they do so, that is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

[ensco]

NBA's biggest mistake is some team's can't practice in an area under lockdown while those that are able to do so may be doing so based on poor local political decisions. Like, Georgia & Florida are not exactly the best examples here. And giving a competitive advantage to a team because its political leadership is stupid is...kinda dumb.

NFL is doing it right - no practices or meetings until every team can do so. MLS will hopefully follow suit.

The NHL are not quite in denial but they have been suggesting Toronto as a venue in June for their mini playoff format & if they do so, that is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

A couple of things.

1) NBA is an optics thing - just setting the groundwork for having the playoffs teams in Los Angeles, Toronto, Boston (ie the better teams in lockdown cities) move their teams to Vegas or wherever. Those teams need to be seen to be "forced" to leave rather than seen as choosing to "abandon" their hunkered-down fan bases.

2) That NFL statement - holy smokes, whipping the challenge flag on the field on that one! On what would you base this claim? The NFL does not "do the right thing", it literally always puts profits first. I can show you 10 ways the NFL endlessly does the wrong thing, whether it's with regard to Kaepernick/race relations, concussions, serious scandals involving owners, charging the military big money to be promoted at their games, union busting, all the players with assault issues that they ignore....Only the states with Trumpy governors are re-opening, and no league is more politically aligned with Republicans than the NFL. The NFL have just been incredibly lucky with the timing of this, that's all, but all things being equal, the NFL would inevitably be the first to hold practices or play games when you shouldn't, I would bet serious money on that. (Bias disclosure: I used to love the NFL but walked away years ago. It is to me a microcosm of everything that has gone wrong in America.)

3) MLS. I see no way forward given relative unimportance of TV as pointed out above by others. Maybe they could get some ratings lift if the better teams play some sort of elite tournament in Mexico with the best Liga MX teams or something...

[Red CB Toronto]

Ontario has formed a pair of advisory panels aimed to study the return of professional and youth sports in the months aheadFormer Sens president Cyril Leeder will be leading those panels. They will put a report together in the next 4-6 weeks. 6 weeks take us to the beginning of June. It this means no professional or amateur sports will be authorized until then, Ontarians can forget about the return of the NHL and NBA to finish their seasons. The Blue Jays won't start theirs anytime soon and all the youth Summer sports (baseball, soccer, etc.) might well be canceled. It will be interesting to see if schools and universities return in the September, will they have the regular fall season of sports?

[MightyDM]

Unless there is a test as easy and simple to administer as taking your temperature, and that is as accurate as a thermometer, no mass gatherings can happen until there is a vaccine. It seems to be accepted that a vaccine will take 12 - 18 months. So no fans for almost certain until 2021. Thats a given. And what do you do about the players? Football, basketball and hockey are full contact sports. Do you keep using limited testing capacity to test the players? can you really keep them totally isolated from the world? It all strains credibiity.

[OgtheDim]

In this case, the NFL did the right thing. I agree - usually it doesn't. But the agreement with their union is no practices until all can. These are teams that normally have practices in the spring. NOW - lets see what happens in mid July.

[James17930]

Even if the ratings will be low, even if they'd be operating at a loss, MLS is going to have to play some games in empty stadiums before next year, or they risk being away for too long and falling into irrelevancy.

[ensco]

Even if the ratings will be low, even if they'd be operating at a loss, MLS is going to have to play some games in empty stadiums before next year, or they risk being away for too long and falling into irrelevancy.

This is a tough one. You are “right”, but it may not matter. I suspect this cannot happen financially without players taking a 75% pay cut or similar, and that could be impossible to achieve. Everyone is too afraid right now to make these kinds of concessions because they fear they are making decisions with long term implications right now. SoI don't seee those games happening until next year, when a new reality is more “baked in”

[ensco]

In this case, the NFL did the right thing. I agree - usually it doesn't. But the agreement with their union is no practices until all can. These are teams that normally have practices in the spring. NOW - lets see what happens in mid July.

Spring practice is apples to everyone else's oranges. The NFL alone haven’t had to take decisions affecting revenues. I guffaw at the idea that they will “do the right thing” when revenues are involved.

[OgtheDim]

Ontario announces its re-opening strategy and specifically indicates that "large public events" including sporting matches & concerts will stay restricted "for the foreseeable future"

https://twitter.com/robferguson1/status/1254826089580564481

[ensco]

Details: “The government will reopen Ontario businesses and public spaces gradually. This will be based on the advice of the chief medical officer of health,” said the framework, which was developed by cabinet committee led by Finance Minister Rod Phillips.

“Each stage will last approximately two-to-four week periods to allow for close monitoring of any impacts or potential resurgences of cases,” the report said, noting health officials will oversee the benchmarks for each stage. Physical distancing and hand washing are among the “significant mitigation plans to limit health risks” that will continue.

When the economy is finally restarted, select workplaces, such as shops that can provide curbside pick-up, and parks will open and small gatherings would be permitted. This would enable small funerals to be held. Hospitals will then begin to offer some non-urgent and scheduled surgeries and other health-care services shut down amid fears they would be overwhelmed by COVID-19 cases.

A fortnight to a month later, more workplaces should open, as will outdoor spaces, and larger gatherings would be allowed.

Another two to four weeks after that, all remaining workplaces will open and restrictions public gatherings will be relaxed.

The benchmarks call for weeks of “consistent” decreases in new daily cases, a shrinking rate of untraced cases – which is still at 35 per cent – and a decrease in new cases at hospitals.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2020/04/27/premier-doug-ford-to-unveil-template-for-re-opening-the-ontario-economy-on-monday.html

[OgtheDim]

Ford asked during the presser specifically about sporting events said

https://twitter.com/KristianJack/status/1254833100019941383

[James17930]

Ford asked during the presser specifically about sporting events said

https://twitter.com/KristianJack/status/1254833100019941383

That's fine, that's reasonable. I don't think anyone expects to be going to stadiums until next year.

But I'm sure they can find some solution involving empty stadiums.

[TFC/Everton]

I need football.

[Redcoe15]

In bad times - wars, disasters, attacks, downturns - we could always look to sports as a way of taking our minds off our worries. And now, we don't even have that! :sad:

[Blindside16]

It is hard to even see when they would be able to play games behind closed doors. Take for example the dumpster fire that is our neighbours to the south. With them rushing to re-open things prematurely I am certain they will see a massive spike in cases and in fatalities as well. I appreciate and applaud the way Premier Ford is handling this pandemic and am thankful that he is taking the cautious route and putting peoples health first before the almighty dollar. I expect that we should be hearing some type of communication for the FO soon as to where we go from here so to speak. I imagine that they will do something similar to what LAFC is doing and roll over this years payment to next year. I do hope they give SSH the option to get a refund and then re-up for next season as I am sure that money is tight for some (as was mentioned earlier in this post). I, thankfully, managed to keep working through this as my company is part of the supply chain but I can only imagine the stress and difficulties that some must be going through right now.

The other concern becomes what will happen in the fall? Will this rear it's ugly head again then or perhaps next February? The world will not get back to any sense of normal until a vaccine is developed and that is still in the distant future. It is not unreasonable that we will not be stepping back inside BMO until summer 2021 at the earliest

[OgtheDim]

France seems to agree

https://twitter.com/LaurensJulien/status/1255117649467580420

[MightyDM]

This is a tough one. You are “right”, but it may not matter. I suspect this cannot happen financially without players taking a 75% pay cut or similar, and that could be impossible to achieve. Everyone is too afraid right now to make these kinds of concessions because they fear they are making decisions with long term implications right now. SoI don't seee those games happening until next year, when a new reality is more “baked in”

Yes. You are right.

[MightyDM]

It is hard to even see when they would be able to play games behind closed doors. Take for example the dumpster fire that is our neighbours to the south. With them rushing to re-open things prematurely I am certain they will see a massive spike in cases and in fatalities as well. I appreciate and applaud the way Premier Ford is handling this pandemic and am thankful that he is taking the cautious route and putting peoples health first before the almighty dollar. I expect that we should be hearing some type of communication for the FO soon as to where we go from here so to speak. I imagine that they will do something similar to what LAFC is doing and roll over this years payment to next year. I do hope they give SSH the option to get a refund and then re-up for next season as I am sure that money is tight for some (as was mentioned earlier in this post). I, thankfully, managed to keep working through this as my company is part of the supply chain but I can only imagine the stress and difficulties that some must be going through right now.

The other concern becomes what will happen in the fall? Will this rear it's ugly head again then or perhaps next February? The world will not get back to any sense of normal until a vaccine is developed and that is still in the distant future. It is not unreasonable that we will not be stepping back inside BMO until summer 2021 at the earliest

I agree with you. Repeating what I said earlier in this thread:


Unless there is a test as easy and simple to administer as taking your temperature, and that is as accurate as a thermometer, no mass gatherings can happen until there is a vaccine. It seems to be accepted that a vaccine will take 12 - 18 months. So no fans for almost certain until 2021. Thats a given. And what do you do about the players? Football, basketball and hockey are full contact sports. Do you keep using limited testing capacity to test the players? can you really keep them totally isolated from the world? It all strains credibiity.

[ensco]

^The US won't wait for a vaccine, testing, any of it.... so this could likely be "over" earlier.

The actual scenario that is unfolding, that nobody will admit to but that the US (or much of the US) appears to be pursuing, is: "Take the punch"

Pretend to fight it, but really just let 'er rip and "accept" (ie ignore) the death rate, and get to herd immunity as fast as possible.

That may well get this "over" faster. At an unspeakable cost.

If the US does it, then we are doing it.

Depressing to say it out loud, but it is today the likeliest outcome. We would probably get sports this fall (we can't actually have this interfere with NFL games). Yay.

[MightyDM]

^It depresses me to disagree with this..... but there is of course the actual scenario that is unfolding, that nobody will admit to but that the US (or much of the US) appears to be pursuing.

"Take the punch" (ie don't even pretend to fight it, just let 'er rip and accept the death rate, and get to herd immunity as fast as possible), could get this "over" faster.

At an unspeakable cost.

If the US does it, then we are doing it.

Depressing to say it out loud, but it is very likely the course we are on.

That is the course Quebec is on. Likely the USA but not Britain or so far Ontario. But you have a point. Look what is happening in Alberta with workers (mostly immigrant) being unwilling victims of that experiment in the meat plants and you might be seeing the future. But there will be a public outcry of cases start reserving. Even in ‘merrica. And anyone rational isn’t going to go to live sporting events or other large gatherings; they might be able to force people to go to work (Republicans are proposing this) and risk severe illness and death but they cannot force masses of people to go to mass gatherings and risk illness and death. And most wont. At least around here.

[OgtheDim]

The end of May is going to look very different than we think so now - this is all spitballing.


********

I help manage a firm in an essential industry and am charged with gathering and sifting through Covid19 info. I see what you are saying ensco but I just don't see that happening here. Trend wise, we have been charting our own course in this country and province.

[ensco]

The end of May is going to look very different than we think so now - this is all spitballing.


********

I help manage a firm in an essential industry and am charged with gathering and sifting through Covid19 info. I see what you are saying ensco but I just don't see that happening here. Trend wise, we have been charting our own course in this country and province.

Yes, to be fair, I am fairly convinced the US is going to "take the punch" but I am not very sure what that means, or means for us in Toronto. That part was pure spitballing.

[ag futbol]

If the US does it, then we are doing it.
Let’s hope not.

[ensco]

Let’s hope not.

It wouldn't happen because we want to or choose to ...

[Blindside16]

There is another major aspect that will play a part in everything and that is the athletes perspective. The owners maybe wanting to resume a business as usual approach but if they athletes themselves say no, then it becomes a mute point. It seems that all is not fine and dandy with the athletes wanting to rush back. NHL players are wary about coming back I a read something earlier today that states that NBA players are wary as well

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-players-begin-to-voice-concern-over-restart-1.1470792

[MightyDM]

There is another major aspect that will play a part in everything and that is the athletes perspective. The owners maybe wanting to resume a business as usual approach but if they athletes themselves say no, then it becomes a mute point. It seems that all is not fine and dandy with the athletes wanting to rush back. NHL players are wary about coming back I a read something earlier today that states that NBA players are wary as well

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-players-begin-to-voice-concern-over-restart-1.1470792

'very good point.

[OgtheDim]

There is another major aspect that will play a part in everything and that is the athletes perspective. The owners maybe wanting to resume a business as usual approach but if they athletes themselves say no, then it becomes a mute point. It seems that all is not fine and dandy with the athletes wanting to rush back. NHL players are wary about coming back I a read something earlier today that states that NBA players are wary as well

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-players-begin-to-voice-concern-over-restart-1.1470792


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm2x6CVIXiE

comes to mind

Quebec unions are starting to get angry at being this sacrifice.

[Lil'John]

Some movement in Europe:
Austria re-starting May 16.
Switzerland re-starting June 8.
Germany?
However:
1) These countries way further down the curve than us. Very few new cases in Austria and Switzerland.
2) No fans. Even in Switzerland no fans until 'summer 2021' according to the Zurich newspaper...

[Blindside16]

Fifa's medical chief weighs in with his opinion or re-satrting: https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/fifa-medical-chief-demands-no-21941111

[OgtheDim]

In case people were seeing it - this is a baby step

https://twitter.com/PaulTenorio/status/1256294449912655873

[Red CB Toronto]

In case people were seeing it - this is a baby step

https://twitter.com/PaulTenorio/status/1256294449912655873

As in the case with the NBA we do not know if all teams can even do this based on current province and state restrictions. The NBA has backed off opening their facilities. The NFL can said no teams can use their facilities until every team can.

[Auzzy]

Regarding Bundesliga: 3 people at FC Köln tested positive. They weren't exhibiting any symptoms, and are now in a 14-day quarantine. Apparently it was two players and a team physiotherapist. Two problems: first of all, if this happens after their season restarts, even just a few players missing can seriously affect the competitiveness of a team. Bigger problem: according to German rules, normally everyone who had contact with those three, should also go into quarantine, but that isn't happening here. And yes many others are pissed about that.

[OgtheDim]

The thought process behind the "open the EPL" idea

https://www.cpfc.co.uk/news/2020/may/chairman-steve-parish-premier-league-project-restart--crystal-palace/

There's a bit of self serving in all this but one paragraph stod out to me


First, we will not walk from this nightmare in one quick step to a bright future, the disease over, the world on the same track that it was before. Barring a miracle or a vaccine, the next months are likely to involve a game of cat and mouse with Covid-19, with restrictions ebbing and flowing. Every facet of normal behaviour is going to crawl slowly from the wreckage — we may have to develop a completely new normal for work and social places.

Nice of somebody in sports to finally admit that "this" is not going to be "this" but more "changing constantly and us adapting as it all goes along and guess what, mistakes are going to happen"

*************************

I couple this bit of English plucky optimism with a document that came out this morning about Ontario - these are some of the brightest minds in Ontario epidemiology right now.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084475v1

In particular, this:


Using a model, we demonstrate the marked impact strong public health measures had in reducing ICU admissions and mortality in Ontario. We also show that this hard-earned success is tenuous: relaxation of physical distancing measures in the near-term is projected to result in a rapid resurgence of disease activity.


In general, I always try to balance the "there is hope" with the "but if we still don't do x, we are so screwed".

Anybody who says they know exactly what is going to happen is making a projection.

[glaze]

I think the NBA and NHL both end up in Vegas.
Vegas has been completely closed. MGM biggest employer in state, both NHL and NBA have relationships with them. They can provide a 5 star experience for all teams, etc.
The Raptors will not play another home game here until December.
As for TFC, I think the MLS will have a similar plan. I think florida will be more likely, at the disney complex.
There's too much money in NFL and college football for them to ba affected, so by Sept it'll be business as usual, pending a second wave.
MLSE should offer a rebate option. Some fans need the funds, others will just say put it for my 2021 tix. That said, do they dare raise prices next year?

[ensco]

I follow the NBA closely and it's pretty much a lock that they are going to Disney World in Orlando, if they do go for it in July. The Vegas thing was the original idea because they do the summer league there, but....

- effective quarantining is a major issue in Vegas or anywhere they cannot really “seal”
- Disney World is empty and they can do the whole thing (games, hotels, commissary, practices) on 100% private property
- NBA and Disney (who own ABC and ESPN) already have a huge relationship
- Disney World has an amazing purpose built court and broadcast center, the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex, that can act as the main facility
- the NBA can build whatever proper practice/game facilities they need (ie courts) in multiple ballrooms etc there

If the NBA does it, that does not mean others will. For all other sports, the larger team sizes make the risk of infection during the tournaments much much higher.

I think the NHL has an insurmountable logistical problem with this. Where are there enough ice sheets, in one place that can be sealed, especially in summer? The need for airtight “foolproof” quarantine in exposed environments makes it orders of magnitude harder for hockey.

MLS can maybe pull it off, there are suburban/exurban places like Frisco with the right number of good fields, and big hotels close by, but the question is, why? This isn't an NBA playoff sprint, is this realistic for months? Especially given infection risk of larger teams... and also, why bother, if the TV dollars aren’t there?

If I was to bet, I’d bet on the NBA doing it, and then the NFL going next (no way they miss a single game given billions of TV dollars at stake) in a place like Dallas.

[ensco]

Bill Simmons, who has been the axe on the NBA summer plan, is this morning saying that everything is still up in the air, a moving target.

Issue is what to do if someone tests positive in the middle of the tournament. Until they come up with an answer for that, none of it makes sense. (As someone pointed out, this is already upending the Bundesliga restart.)

Seems like an impossible problem to solve, when you stop and think about it.

[MightyDM]

Bill Simmons, who has been the axe on the NBA summer plan, is this morning saying that everything is still up in the air, a moving target.

Issue is what to do if someone tests positive in the middle of the tournament. Until they come up with an answer for that, none of it makes sense. (As someone pointed out, this is already upending the Bundesliga restart.)

Seems like an impossible problem to solve, when you stop and think about it.

Interesting what bargaining power does for workers. If NBA stars were workers in a meat plant in the USA, or Alberta, they’d be making them work on a “let them die” approach. Hopefully the difficulties pro sports are having will bring some sanity to the regular world. We can only hope.

[MightyDM]

Also, if you read about previous pandemics, it is more likely than not that there will be a second wave. No one really knows, but it’s prudent to plan for that, not very smart to plan for “ its over now”

[OgtheDim]

FWIW

Best data aggregate I've seen for Ontario is found here, including a breakdown of LTC & hospitals & community cases.

https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard/ontario


If you have a family member in a LTCH, as staff or resident, my prayers. "Its over now" doesn't include there.

[ensco]

Interesting what bargaining power does for workers. If NBA stars were workers in a meat plant in the USA, or Alberta, they’d be making them work on a “let them die” approach. Hopefully the difficulties pro sports are having will bring some sanity to the regular world. We can only hope.

The NBA players do want to play, it seems. If at all possible.

https://twitter.com/kingjames/status/1255912096929165312?s=21

[Auzzy]

FWIW

Best data aggregate I've seen for Ontario is found here, including a breakdown of LTC & hospitals & community cases.

https://howsmyflattening.ca/#/dashboard/ontario

If you have a family member in a LTCH, as staff or resident, my prayers. "Its over now" doesn't include there.

That's a very interesting website, thanks for the tip. Especially I haven't seen the reproduction number mentioned much elsewhere.

However I believe 579 LTC deaths, out of a total 1300 deaths, is way too low. What I've seen elsewhere, LTC deaths are a far higher percentage. (And apparently Canada is looking very bad there among peer nations.)

[Auzzy]

The NBA players do want to play, it seems. If at all possible.

https://twitter.com/kingjames/status/1255912096929165312?s=21


"As soon as it's safe" -- LOL, in the US. The situation is incredibly variable there, from city to city, state to state, and over time. Cases and deaths will skyrocket again now. In many areas, testing is far too low compared to the number of cases, so they will be flying blind.

[Blindside16]

"As soon as it's safe" -- LOL, in the US. The situation is incredibly variable there, from city to city, state to state, and over time. Cases and deaths will skyrocket again now. In many areas, testing is far too low compared to the number of cases, so they will be flying blind.


It is no surprise that testing is far to low. The are just blindly ignorant to the fact that this is not just a common flu. Their online "experts" just add fuel to the re-open the country fire by pointing out that the death toll world wide is only 240,000 (I don't have the exact number in front of me) and SARS killed well over 1.2 million. They tend to forget that China's numbers are complete bullshit and the death toll is more than likely well past 2.5 million now.

Anyways I digress, they will rush to try and get the seasons re-started and in the fall when the second wave rips through it will be much worse. There is a very high probability that "when it's safe" will be summer of 2021.

[Auzzy]

It is no surprise that testing is far to low. The are just blindly ignorant to the fact that this is not just a common flu. Their online "experts" just add fuel to the re-open the country fire by pointing out that the death toll world wide is only 240,000 (I don't have the exact number in front of me) and SARS killed well over 1.2 million. They tend to forget that China's numbers are complete bullshit and the death toll is more than likely well past 2.5 million now.

Anyways I digress, they will rush to try and get the seasons re-started and in the fall when the second wave rips through it will be much worse. There is a very high probability that "when it's safe" will be summer of 2021.

Yup I agree! Plus people have done "excess death" calculations of the current situation. In many countries, they haven't yet included 40% to 60% of the actual COVID-19 deaths, for a variety of reasons, plus other deaths that were caused by it due to things like failing hospitals...

BTW forget about "second wave" in the US, cases & deaths will just keep on growing non-stop from now.

[OgtheDim]

BC puts the obvious in print - look at the 4th photo - vaccine, treatment, herd immunity (don't get me started on how many people would die for us to get there)

https://twitter.com/NeetuGarcha/status/1258162711344459776/photo/4

[Lil'John]

Angela Merkel gave the OK - Pending something bad happening, German Bundesliga back on 15th or 22nd.
If you have Sportsnet, you can get games on their website - although maybe they'll show them on the main channel as nothing else to show!! Production etc is Fox Sports.
Only shame is...I was looking forward to everyone getting into the Austrian Bundesliga...!!!

[ensco]

Just adding to tweet above...

https://twitter.com/macleankay/status/1258168445847220224?s=21

[Red CB Toronto]

League like MLS, CFL etc that rely on their gate will have a hard time going the closed door route even when sports are allowed on the field. For those without a big TV nest egg not playing at all may be more viable than the closed door thing. I have always thought that it was never going to be realistic for fans to return without a vaccine, the risks were just too high.


BC puts the obvious in print - look at the 4th photo - vaccine, treatment, herd immunity (don't get me started on how many people would die for us to get there)

https://twitter.com/NeetuGarcha/status/1258162711344459776/photo/4


Just adding to tweet above...

https://twitter.com/macleankay/status/1258168445847220224?s=21

[Joe Kool]

League like MLS, CFL etc that rely on their gate will have a hard time going the closed door route even when sports are allowed on the field. For those without a big TV nest egg not playing at all may be more viable than the closed door thing. I have always thought that it was never going to be realistic for fans to return without a vaccine, the risks were just too high.

I don't know how the TV deals work and all that in the slightest but question about it is.....if nobody is allowed to go to the games for the meantime, it is likely that almost all households that had tickets on top of the normal amount of people that watch on TV and add in some sports craved people that might watch that maybe wouldn't have before....does that help the TV deals in any way having the extra viewers? There will be many more TV viewers than before. Maybe the contracts and TV revenues are fixed or whatever but if not maybe having more viewers makes it more viable.

[OgtheDim]

I think the only large sports crowds in Canada that come close to the viewing audiences are CPL & MLS. CFL games get hundreds of thousands.

[James17930]

Anyone know when TFC are going to return to training? Other clubs have already started individual sessions.

[OgtheDim]

Anyone know when TFC are going to return to training? Other clubs have already started individual sessions.

All that is based on local jurisdictions letting them.

No Canadian club has yet. It would be VERY difficult to justify in Ontario under current provincial emergency guidelines.

[OgtheDim]

Goff getting some news - he's usually good at hearing from certain management types within teams

https://twitter.com/SoccerInsider/status/1258597233206984705

As he says, just talk right now.

[ensco]

If this is real (put me in the “it isn’t real” camp), I wonder if we are looking at TFC (and the other Canadian teams) just staying in Orlando and playing “home” games there....

I still don’t get the “why” for MLS. This won’t make economic sense without massive pay cuts by the players. Which seems unlikely this year. (Next year, if this situation is still bad, different story)

[eustacchio]

so the players would all be quarantined together (in Florida) for the duration of the 'season', is that the idea?

[Auzzy]

Wow June/July in Orlando, the temperatures and humidity are generally bad then. Just wondering about having lots of training and games in that climate. If they have many teams in one spot, and try to catch up on some of the missed games, it also makes it harder to schedule games and training for just the parts of the day when the conditions are slightly more bearable.

[jabbronies]

If this is real (put me in the “it isn’t real” camp), I wonder if we are looking at TFC (and the other Canadian teams) just staying in Orlando and playing “home” games there....

I still don’t get the “why” for MLS. This won’t make economic sense without massive pay cuts by the players. Which seems unlikely this year. (Next year, if this situation is still bad, different story)


Do you believe MLS would need to have players take pay cuts? The league has made decent coin over the past few years and teams are not that expensive to run.

[OgtheDim]

All that is based on local jurisdictions letting them.

No Canadian club has yet. It would be VERY difficult to justify in Ontario under current provincial emergency guidelines.

And...Ontario changes the guidelines

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pro-sports-teams-can-open-training-facilities-1.4930649

[Initial B]

Interesting that they are allowing MLS and CFL clubs, but not CPL clubs. I think there is going to be an amendment to this soon.

[ensco]

Interesting that they are allowing MLS and CFL clubs, but not CPL clubs. I think there is going to be an amendment to this soon.

The leagues/clubs would be asked to police this activities with resources that cost money (security) plus a lot more, infrastructure etc. I think CPL isn’t included for real reasons.

[Graeme]

And...Ontario changes the guidelines

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pro-sports-teams-can-open-training-facilities-1.4930649

Woo Hoo! Bradley & Piatti will hopefully be in first team training shortly!

[Red CB Toronto]

Goff getting some news - he's usually good at hearing from certain management types within teams

https://twitter.com/SoccerInsider/status/1258597233206984705

As he says, just talk right now.

Here is as connected to anyone is US Soccer circles. While it is good to hear , these type of plans for any league have been coming and going every day. From baseball in Arizona to hockey in North Dakota. One day the NBA was going to be in Vegas, the next at Disney work. The CFL has even said they are likely done for the year. The border is going to be the issue along with testing and quick testing to say the least.

Quick testing will be needed for this and none of them so far has proven to be all that reliable. The spartan test was just send back to the labs for further work.

[Red CB Toronto]

The leagues/clubs would be asked to police this activities with resources that cost money (security) plus a lot more, infrastructure etc. I think CPL isn’t included for real reasons.

To simply put it, if the CFL can not play in front of fans in 2020 they will not be playing in 2020. Plus with it be the off-season, the logistics of bringing in all the American players, which is essentially half your roster plus all those that you cut during the pre-season will make it a tough task to pull off. Non-essential travel between countries will be one the last thing to come back. So many moving parts here.

[Auzzy]

And...Ontario changes the guidelines

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pro-sports-teams-can-open-training-facilities-1.4930649

That CTV article seems quite vague. At least for the Raptors, "opening the training facilities" means only one player at a time in the building, and one coach or trainer, no close interaction between them, and with disinfection of balls / equipment / surfaces in-between players. Locker rooms, fitness rooms, showers and offices all closed. In that situation, many players would probably just as well want to work out at home, with a trainer watching them over video.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/2020/05/08/raptors-to-open-practice-facility-to-players-starting-next-week.html

If TFC is training outside, it's lower risk, but it's still likely going to be strongly controlled, with no interaction between players.

Which I think is good. I agree with Red CB, way more testing capacity is needed for this to go further. In Germany they still have some problems and huge debates about the Bundesliga reopening. That's despite the fact that Germany has the capacity to do 850,000 tests per week, yet normally uses less than half that capacity. There it's easy to say that the Bundesliga can pay for extra testing for the players & staff w/o affecting anyone else. In the US and Canada, that's much harder to say.

[Red CB Toronto]

That CTV article seems quite vague. At least for the Raptors, "opening the training facilities" means only one player at a time in the building, and one coach or trainer, no close interaction between them, and with disinfection of balls / equipment / surfaces in-between players. Locker rooms, fitness rooms, showers and offices all closed. In that situation, many players would probably just as well want to work out at home, with a trainer watching them over video.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/raptors/2020/05/08/raptors-to-open-practice-facility-to-players-starting-next-week.html

If TFC is training outside, it's lower risk, but it's still likely going to be strongly controlled, with no interaction between players.

Which I think is good. I agree with Red CB, way more testing capacity is needed for this to go further. In Germany they still have some problems and huge debates about the Bundesliga reopening. That's despite the fact that Germany has the capacity to do 850,000 tests per week, yet normally uses less than half that capacity. There it's easy to say that the Bundesliga can pay for extra testing for the players & staff w/o affecting anyone else. In the US and Canada, that's much harder to say.

Plus if you look to Germany, after the easing of some restrictions they have already seen a spike in cases. While I believe we as a society have moved from a mindset of life after covid to one where we are living with it around us, the does not mean they are some risks we can totally avoid.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8269107/Germany-sees-rate-infection-increase-easing-lockdown.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR2MfSunO6eTg_0AkOLyN204Ue5zX670rcMYYerpa 1ixX8o-KTE_ibaINO8

[Richard]

At what point do you say we have to all move on and return to normal?

Isolate the weak and let the rest move on with their lives, the mortality rate is thankfully far lower than feared.

[OgtheDim]

We are not at the point where we can say "move on"


The reason mortaility is lower then feared is because we are social distancing.

But, the reproduction rate is going back up above 1 which means we are not winning the battle right now here in Ontario.

What we need is massive testing, tracking and tracing capability and in Ontario until the case amounts per day are around 200, we are not there. We can't get on with our lives because to do so would kill people.

******************

BTW, this disease does not just hit the weak.

I have read a few dozen first hand accounts of people heretofore healthy in their 20-40's telling what it's like to get this disease and be either at home or in the hospital - they are readily available.

The largest group getting it and being hospitalized is people in their 30's and 40's, mostly men.

Yes, Covid 19 kills older people. Also tends to kill people with less money who are doing jobs none of us like - meat packing for example.

Covid 19 maims the younger, scarring lungs, and we don't know the long term effects. There are some reports of some kids who get it getting a rare disease but this isn't proven yet.

And those younger give it to people who give it to people who then give it to people who can't cope either due to age or unseen conditions.


********

Gosh, I hear you Richard, I really do. We all want to get out and get on with our lives. BUT...the cost of doing it wrong is bad and not just in deaths.

[Globetrotter]

Hmmm... now that Reuters has officially confirmed the stats of the 1968-1970 pandemic, I dont know why we all didn't just accept these numbers 2 months ago, I wonder if that will change anything.

100,000 American's dead.
1M people dead world wide.
Flu out of Hong Kong.
Over a year it lasted.
Affected many 65+.

No social distancing.
No face masks.
No closed business'.
Sporting events. Concerts (like Woodstock). Normal outings... all good to go.
Life went on as normal.

What the hell changed?...

[Oldtimer]

Hmmm... now that Reuters has officially confirmed the stats of the 1968-1970 pandemic, I dont know why we all didn't just accept these numbers 2 months ago, I wonder if that will change anything.

100,000 American's dead.
1M people dead world wide.
Flu out of Hong Kong.
Over a year it lasted.
Affected many 65+.

No social distancing.
No face masks.
No closed business'.
Sporting events. Concerts (like Woodstock). Normal outings... all good to go.
Life went on as normal.

What the hell changed?...

Even under the most optimistic scenario (which assumes that 90% of people are asymptomatic), it's 5 times as deadly as the worst flu since 1918. Plus it's probably much more deadly than that. That's what's different.

[Kayaker]

Hmmm... now that Reuters has officially confirmed the stats of the 1968-1970 pandemic, I dont know why we all didn't just accept these numbers 2 months ago, I wonder if that will change anything.

100,000 American's dead.
1M people dead world wide.
Flu out of Hong Kong.
Over a year it lasted.
Affected many 65+.

No social distancing.
No face masks.
No closed business'.
Sporting events. Concerts (like Woodstock). Normal outings... all good to go.
Life went on as normal.

What the hell changed?...

Several factors.....
- the 68-70 pandemic was an offshoot of the regular flu.... in fact some people were resistant from it in 1968 from the 1957 strain
- COVID-19 is a novel virus... no one is immune.
- we still don't know what all the symptoms are, nor do we know what the long term effects will be, even on those who had little to no outward symptoms
- while both the 68-70 flu and COVID-19 are high contagious, modern travel makes things traffic at super speeds. Many people have said that SARS from 2002-04 would have spread much faster and further if it happened today.

[MightyDM]

At what point do you say we have to all move on and return to normal?

Isolate the weak and let the rest move on with their lives, the mortality rate is thankfully far lower than feared.

“Isolate the weak”. ??? What on earth are you talking about? This virus essentially causes you to drown in your own lungs. The British PM got it and says it was life and death. Is he “The weak?” Is your girlfriend? Your mum? My disabled son? Who are the “weak”? Should we round them up and shoot them first, to solve the problem? What?????

[MightyDM]

Hmmm... now that Reuters has officially confirmed the stats of the 1968-1970 pandemic, I dont know why we all didn't just accept these numbers 2 months ago, I wonder if that will change anything.

100,000 American's dead.
1M people dead world wide.
Flu out of Hong Kong.
Over a year it lasted.
Affected many 65+.

No social distancing.
No face masks.
No closed business'.
Sporting events. Concerts (like Woodstock). Normal outings... all good to go.
Life went on as normal.

What the hell changed?...

Look up what would happen if we didn’t social distance. Every person who has it infects 2-3 people. Learn the math. If you don’t do something, the numbers are exponential. One person infected gets to 10,000 rapidly. Go look it up, and then come back on here and apologize to us and also everywhere you have said this. Here is the draft apology “holy shit, I didn’t realize how virulent this was and how it would infect millions if we didn’t take measures. We are lucky our society chose to do the right thing, but we cannot let up”

[JonO]

Hmmm... now that Reuters has officially confirmed the stats of the 1968-1970 pandemic, I dont know why we all didn't just accept these numbers 2 months ago, I wonder if that will change anything.

100,000 American's dead.
1M people dead world wide.
Flu out of Hong Kong.
Over a year it lasted.
Affected many 65+.

No social distancing.
No face masks.
No closed business'.
Sporting events. Concerts (like Woodstock). Normal outings... all good to go.
Life went on as normal.

What the hell changed?...
78000+ Americans have died in less than 3 months. The number will likely be much higher than 100000 when this is over, and that is with social distancing (which slows transmission and allows doctors to treat those infected).

Right now we are doing ok but our ICUs are swamped. It’s not just the elderly who need hospital treatment, they are just less likely to survive it. If the transmission increases dramatically, preventable deaths will happen because the patients won’t be able to be treated.

All this in addition to the unknown damage that this disease does. There are some scary stories of asymptomatic people with dangerously low blood oxygen levels.

[ensco]

The biggest problem is that what we actually “know” about this virus is nothing. The “data” being used by people to draw conclusions is useless.

We don't really understand the vulnerability (yes, Long Term Care and the elderly, people with preconditions, but that is true for everything - this is clearly hitting certain situations/populations much harder or faster than others, for reasons not yet understood.

We don't know really anything about how contagious or how lethal it is (people are beginning to guess maybe more contagious and less lethal than we have previously guessed). But it is all spitballing right now. Obviously there is the testing problem - but my own opinion is that testing isn’t the solution to reopening, it's mostly important for diagnosing contagion/death rates, which we need as input to reopening strategies.

We don't know much about how or even if it mutates (mutation can make vaccines impossible)

To reopen, we really need a breakthrough treatment or vaccine - or herd immunity.

I totally understand why we are “gridlocked” into the position we are in. It's frustrating, but buying time is probably the right thing to do, until we get some answers from the scientists.

[Globetrotter]

Whoa gents. The question was "what the hell has changed?" The post is neither for one side or the other, or any type of political statement.

You have a world 50 years ago going through something very similar, with no shut down. Today, reactions are very different.

Now tie the above back to this thread and putting things back in place, and specifically how that could play out for sporting events. Could revisiting similar-ISH outbreaks and societies response to them influence today's decision makers for reactivating leagues now that more officially recognized data has been confirmed?

1969 had woodstock. 2003 (??) had SARS, which if you remember we had a giant concert at downsview to raise funds for SARS, and 2003 was still a time that had high people movement around the world. Even 10 years ago with swine flu. All had their potency in their own way, etc. Some have argued they aren't comparable to now - that his time it's so radically different - and perhaps the answer then is simply "cant compare, this is so radically different and sports leagues need to charter a new path in a new world".

If the above is worth replying to, then kindly do so. Pausing for thought between the differences of carrier-no-symptoms, infected-with-symptoms, recovered, and actual deaths.

[ensco]

Whoa gents. The question was "what the hell has changed?".

It's a novel coronavirus. Novel meaning “new”. The 1957 and 1968 ones were branches of existing, known viruses. There were known treatments, epidemiology estimates that held. It's all the difference in the world.

Re SARS, it was also novel, but the huge difference is that it was never very contagious, although it was highly lethal. (That's why so many health workers were the victims then.) SARS was not a very big deal outside the Toronto and Hong Kong hospital systems (there were a few other cities), as containment within the hospitals worked. Low contagion viruses are easy to study/understand/control quickly.

[OgtheDim]

Whoa gents. The question was "what the hell has changed?" The post is neither for one side or the other, or any type of political statement.

You have a world 50 years ago going through something very similar, with no shut down. Today, reactions are very different..

What has changed is this virus & what we know about it - quite a lot about potency & transmission & we are still learning.

Late 60's flu was a variant of the flu - many people had immunity/antibodies to it.
Sars 2003 didn't infect people easily and in Toronto was largely kept to health care facilities. Once contained it died off.

This thing...isn't contained. And learning how to deal with it occurs over time. Everything should be started with the phrase "As best as we know" But there is a heck of a lot we do know. This is a marathon, and it isn't on a flat course.

*******

That having been said, people react to opinions about Covid-19 based on personal experience, and those experiences are raw, emotional, deep and long lasting

This thread was started by somebody who indicated a strong need to get a refund. The economic hardships are real. There will be lots of TFC supporters suffering economically - businesses threatened, rents getting tight.

There is a lot of fear out there. If you or your family have something that causes immuno suppression, Covid 19 is a nightmare.

If you are a declared essential worker, there is a lot of fear - you have to trust everybody you come into contact with to both not be an idiot & not come into contact with idiots.

&

I doubt I'm the only one among the RPB with a connection to somebody who has died. I had an elderly uncle in the UK die last week of "a previous condition" that was made worse by him getting Covid 19.


I've personally learned to parse my anger/fear/responses. I have to have patience with people because we are ALL going through a hell of a lot of shit right now and once I lose my cool, I am no good to my family, my work (I'm the health & safety manager and have been responding to questions/issues releated to Covid19 since mid February) & anybody I come into contact around.

I save my vehement / cathartic responses for the extreme covidiots / bots on twitter. :)

Oh, and for talking to my family about "I can't believe the behaviour I just saw in the grocery store!"

[Globetrotter]

Happy to roll with the majority and suggest that carrying out the season in front of live fans is a bad idea. Pivoting on the topic then, and under the assumption of playing in front of empty seats - what's everyone's opinion about pumping in/adding fan noise and background sounds over top of game plan, and layered behind the commentator play-by-play?

Although pre-season games are meaningless, the complete lack of fan sounds really deflates the watching experience as well. Maybe falsely adding in game simulation noises might add a bit of splash to the TV experience?

Well understood that playing in front of an empty venue has its drawbacks for players and ultimate expression and passion which is the real dictating force... but since everything is all speculation now anyways - thoughts of pumping in added noise to the TV feed?

[Ponderosa]

Happy to roll with the majority and suggest that carrying out the season in front of live fans is a bad idea. Pivoting on the topic then, and under the assumption of playing in front of empty seats - what's everyone's opinion about pumping in/adding fan noise and background sounds over top of game plan, and layered behind the commentator play-by-play?

Although pre-season games are meaningless, the complete lack of fan sounds really deflates the watching experience as well. Maybe falsely adding in game simulation noises might add a bit of splash to the TV experience?

Well understood that playing in front of an empty venue has its drawbacks for players and ultimate expression and passion which is the real dictating force... but since everything is all speculation now anyways - thoughts of pumping in added noise to the TV feed?

Imagine a menu of commentators and voices to select from: English, Spanish, Scots, American, how about a Newfoundlander for fun? ... and a choice what supporters group we hear and which ones we MUTE? That would be a novel use of technology!

[Auzzy]

Happy to roll with the majority and suggest that carrying out the season in front of live fans is a bad idea. Pivoting on the topic then, and under the assumption of playing in front of empty seats - what's everyone's opinion about pumping in/adding fan noise and background sounds over top of game plan, and layered behind the commentator play-by-play?

Although pre-season games are meaningless, the complete lack of fan sounds really deflates the watching experience as well. Maybe falsely adding in game simulation noises might add a bit of splash to the TV experience?

Well understood that playing in front of an empty venue has its drawbacks for players and ultimate expression and passion which is the real dictating force... but since everything is all speculation now anyways - thoughts of pumping in added noise to the TV feed?

I had a different thought. I watched some of the empty-stadium games that were still played before the shutdown. I think the huge, cavernous, echoing stadiums are an issue. I think piping in fan noises would be odd. Perhaps go the opposite direction -- try to make it an "intimate" game, 22 buddies playing a game down at the park. (While physically distancing, LOL.) Perhaps find a way to block the echo? Playing in smaller local stadiums might be an idea, on the other hand probably too hard to keep a safe distance in smaller locker rooms etc.

Or is there a way to pipe in the sound from a couple of thousand fans watching on their own at home, like a massive audio-only Zoom meeting. g:D

[eustacchio]

The sounds doesn't have to be piped into the stadium just added to the broadcast.

The 'crowd' wouldn't be reacting to anything on the field though really.

[Globetrotter]

Exactly. The sound is pumped into the broadcast, not the stadium.

You would have a whole series of sound bites ready to go. Home crowd booing a questionable/bad call. Goal or penalty celebration. Ref you suck. Dichio song softly in the background on 23m. Etc. The audio guys could have so much fun with that.

[Auzzy]

Two positive Coronavirus tests at Dynamo Dresden in the 2nd Bundesliga. All players, coaches, trainers, and other support staff have to go into a 14-day quarantine starting today. They won't be able to take part in the planned league restart.

[Red CB Toronto]

Two positive Coronavirus tests at Dynamo Dresden in the 2nd Bundesliga. All players, coaches, trainers, and other support staff have to go into a 14-day quarantine starting today. They won't be able to take part in the planned league restart.

Makes you wonder how viable a return is to the pitch when at someone you do need to have full on trainings. Is too much of a chance being taken when it is becoming obvious that you do not have total control over your environment.

[Yohan]

South Korean K league restarted yesterday. They used simulated crowd noises into the broadcast. Wasn't odd, except that there was nobody in the stands

[OgtheDim]

Even had a Doneil Henry hattrick - mostly solid defensive play, VAR decision , makes one mistake to cost his team the game - just like old times

[OgtheDim]

Volunteer Individual training at BMO Training Centre starts today.

[barticusz]

RE crowd noises. Maybe someone will come up with a AI program that react to the flow of a live game and play appropriate level of reaction. I mean they do it in the video games.

[OgtheDim]

RE crowd noises. Maybe someone will come up with a AI program that react to the flow of a live game and play appropriate level of reaction. I mean they do it in the video games.

Houston & Chicago & LAFC wouldn't need that - they drone on the same no matter what is happening.

[OgtheDim]

Paulson musing about MLS coming back

https://www.oregonlive.com/timbers/2020/05/portland-timbers-and-thorns-owner-merritt-paulson-optimistic-about-mls-season-resuming-this-summer.html

[OgtheDim]

LAG suspending SSH payments

https://twitter.com/GalaxyPodcast/status/1260338073159610369

[Oldtimer]

Athletic reporting an MLS proposal to run a mini tournament style season starting June 22, all teams based in Orlando, all matches closed door. Teams would fly in June 1st.

[OgtheDim]

The logistics for such an undertaking are...difficult.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1260394829474934784

[Auzzy]

The logistics for such an undertaking are...difficult.



I have lots of doubts about that plan. Especially having a whole bunch of games (and training) in extremely hot weather.

However food wouldn't be my biggest concern. They may be getting lots of prepared individual meals. Think of the huge operations (for food production) that MLSE has set up at Scotiabank Arena and at BMO Field. There are lots of big hotels and restaurants in Orlando that won't be very busy, and that could help to prep the food. And it could be served outdoors to reduce the crowding and risk. (Although generally in June & July in Orlando, you would want to stay inside with a/c as much as possible.)

[Red CB Toronto]

I have lots of doubts about that plan. Especially having a whole bunch of games (and training) in extremely hot weather.

However food wouldn't be my biggest concern. They may be getting lots of prepared individual meals. Think of the huge operations that MLSE has set up at Scotiabank Arena and at BMO Field. There are lots of big hotels and restaurants in Orlando that won't be very busy, and that could help to prep the food. And it could be served outdoors to reduce the crowding and risk. (Although generally in June & July in Orlando, you would want to stay inside with a/c as much as possible.)

Playing and training every day in central Florida in June/July sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. That heat is gross, it will be draining. Hopefully they do five subs at least.

[James17930]

Playing and training every day in central Florida in June/July sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. That heat is gross, it will be draining. Hopefully they do five subs at least.

FIFA have already approved the 5 subs plan. And the teams will just have to rotate who plays during the afternoon and who at night.

[ensco]

The logistics comment above is really about money. If the money is there, you can do the logistics. As I have said, I am sceptical that the money is there for MLS.

I believe Goff has good sources - this MLS proposal is being floated because the NBA plan is falling apart, and there is an “opportunity“ for MLS to “step in”to the Disney plan.

But is there, really?

The NBA is having multiple problems with this
-Owners and players nowhere near agreeing amongst each other, let alone with each other. Owners agitated about competitive/fairness and related money issues. Should they just go straight to playoffs? What happens to bubble teams? The NBA players have big internal squabbles about whether/how to accept pay cuts, and the players union President called the proposed approach “incarceration”...
- the NBA are worried about the PR hit they will take from doing repeat testing on 1000 people performing non essential services, when there still aren’t enough tests
- the aforementioned problem with what to do if someone tests positive anyway

MLS doesn’t have the owners arguing about fairness that comes from changing the playoff system mid stream, sure. But would MLS do any better on the testing or pay issue, if this gets real?

I think none of these summer restarts are happening. The NFL will be up next: the PA is weak there and those owners won’t care about any of this and will plough forward.

[OgtheDim]

Fauci is optimistic about fall NFL but its based on a lot of "we will get there" that the US hasn't shown a willingness to actually do.

The interview transcript is here https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/05/11/nfl-season-dr-fauci-coronavirus-fmia-peter-king/

The actual interview is here http://art19.com/shows/peter-king-nbc-sports/episodes/ab526d59-cf27-48fe-9cff-db1aa73081de

(as usual during this health crisis, be careful of headlines from secondary sources - find the primary interview wherever possible)

[Richard]

The smart thing to do for all sports leagues is to cancel the season. Once a player gets it, which by the way will happen again, the team can't interact with anyone.

What if a play-off team has infected players?

This whole thing about playing in one location and thinking it's an effective barrier is plain stupid.

[Boddington]

For those on a payment plan I believe May is the last one for this season.


LAG suspending SSH payments

https://twitter.com/GalaxyPodcast/status/1260338073159610369

[glaze]

It's only May. When we won the MLS cup, the season ended in December. If you take out international breaks, the Canadian championship, etc, there's still a lot of time left to play some sort of season. Who knows what the situation will be in July.
That said, I do not think any of us will be in BMO field until 2021. Surely can't social distance in that tunnel! How many of us were at risk opening day?

[magmadragon]

For those on a payment plan I believe May is the last one for this season.

That's correct. May 28 is the final payment.



That said, I do not think any of us will be in BMO field until 2021. Surely can't social distance in that tunnel! How many of us were at risk opening day?

I'm slowly resigning myself to that as well. At least we managed to get one game in.

Those hard tickets I got for this season are going to make for a conversation piece in a few years.

[Auzzy]

It's only May. When we won the MLS cup, the season ended in December. If you take out international breaks, the Canadian championship, etc, there's still a lot of time left to play some sort of season. Who knows what the situation will be in July.
That said, I do not think any of us will be in BMO field until 2021. Surely can't social distance in that tunnel! How many of us were at risk opening day?

That's a good point I hadn't thought about in a while. I do remember feeling a bit... odd that day. Glad I biked so I didn't have to go through the tunnel.

W/o fans, I think most modern industrialized nations could have at least part of the season. The problem is, we have no idea where many parts of the US are headed (and related to that, how much pressure will be on Canada to open the borders to chaos). That's why I have a hard time imaging what will happen in the summer, nevermind the fall.

[OgtheDim]

Lots of talk today about the Orlando thing. No agreement between unions & MLS. Players individually showing willingness but only if safe & done right.

[Red CB Toronto]

Lots of talk today about the Orlando thing. No agreement between unions & MLS. Players individually showing willingness but only if safe & done right.

I guess one the big hurdle for the Canadian teams will be the border. Does not seem it will be open anytime soon for non-essential travel

[ensco]

Lots of talk today about the Orlando thing. No agreement between unions & MLS. Players individually showing willingness but only if safe & done right.

Same thing happening with the NBA. Lots of generic happy talk, players all say they want to play... but it feels to me like the clock is running out.

btw one issue that is emerging is fear of just how bad this is projected to get in Southern US. Silver is actually talking about playing these games here...
https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/toronto-could-be-the-nba-bubble-city

Any of these leagues need a plan, like, yesterday, for July 1...

[MightyDM]

Same thing happening with the NBA. Lots of generic happy talk, players all say they want to play... but it feels to me like the clock is running out.

btw one issue that is emerging is fear of just how bad this is projected to get in Southern US. Silver is actually talking about playing these games here...
https://www.si.com/nba/raptors/news/toronto-could-be-the-nba-bubble-city

Any of these leagues need a plan, like, yesterday, for July 1...

you could actually host a tournament at BMO. Hotel X is right there. A bit rough on the field but way better on the players than Florida in June. Half the east maybe?...

[Joe Kool]

you could actually host a tournament at BMO. Hotel X is right there. A bit rough on the field but way better on the players than Florida in June. Half the east maybe?...

Pretty much what I was thinking. Why go to the US where things are more out of control when a possible host city is here with a better situation in terms of virus control.

[OgtheDim]

Until there is enough tests here for everybody that needs to get one gets one, these leagues can pound sand.

[ensco]

“If this plan sounds like a sclerotic facsimile to a legitimate baseball season, it is. If it sounds like a possible health catastrophe waiting to happen, it is...”

https://www.thenation.com/article/society/mlb-baseball-coronavirus/

[MightyDM]

Until there is enough tests here for everybody that needs to get one gets one, these leagues can pound sand.

Thats about right.

[ensco]

I sort of get what the NBA is talking about, a short playoff sprint in Vegas, in a venue purpose built to mask (or even take advantage of ) the absence of fans. They are talking about building, in a Convention Center, a purpose built court with 100 built in cameras.

But the Bundesliga is making a mistake: playing the games in cavernous stadiums without fans, on an ongoing basis, is depressing. It tarnishes the brand, and people won’t watch that in anything like the numbers they think. My suspicion anyway.

I posted this three weeks ago, and now that I have watched some of this, I am doubling down. This is depressing.

Any league other than the NBA that plays in front of empty stands is making a huge business mistake.

(The NBA has a novelty opportunity to capture player conversation, the squeak of the sneakers, etc. For a playoff sprint.)

[OgtheDim]

The Bundisliga thing actually worked - should mic the refs.

[Lil'John]

The Bundisliga thing actually worked - should mic the refs.

Yes. It was funny watching Bundesliga today.
Initially it felt very strange, but after a while I forgot there was no crowd.
Alphonso on SN1 at 7pm tomorrow.

[Red CB Toronto]

The Bundisliga thing actually worked - should mic the refs.

I found it a little strange early on but over time go into it. I do worry though if a league like the MLS goes the training ground/small stadium route the broadcast could look amateur. I mean we here are used to the 1-2 camera pre-season/USL streams but for an overall general audience it make be off putting. Some of the angles the stadium field at Disney presents are not great.

[ensco]

If you guys liked it, who am I to argue?

I felt like it was fake and weird. I only watched for 20 minutes. It just made me sad about the quarantine, so I didn’t stick with it, maybe it would have gotten better.

I will definitely check out Phonzie tonight, at least for a bit.

I guess the question will be answered by the ratings over a few weeks (no question they should be high out of the gate).

[MightyDM]

I Watched some of today’s game, and decided I don’t like the game without the crowd.

Plus, if it succeeds, then the leagues will know they don’t need supporters and we will essentially become props on a set like on a TV show. It’s already getting that way - watch videos of old games pre video review and you will see the spontaneous joy or outrage or anger of the fans - fantastic, and now diminished. If we become props the next thing will be some pretext to stop the game and have ads.

The good thing is the games don’t look real and I doubt whether they will succeed from a broadcasting numbers perspective.

[OgtheDim]

Every person said it would be better with fans.

I noted a comment that players found it more intense as they didn't feel the need to badger the ref and thus had less "off time" while guys complained about a call. Also, less hard tackles to prove a point to the fans & flair moves to get the crowd going (although that last goal by Dortmund was training ground flair).

I found the Mainz Gladbach game was a lot like watching TFC & Seattle - two teams who preferred to counter with decent enough defences that eventually gave up stuff.


Yes, it didn't work for everybody and I can see why neutrals would go "meh". Not sure I'd want to watch Nashville vs. San Jose. BUT...put TFC in that first game & I think the emotional investment supporters have with the team would take over.

[MightyDM]

Every person said it would be better with fans.

I noted a comment that players found it more intense as they didn't feel the need to badger the ref and thus had less "off time" while guys complained about a call. Also, less hard tackles to prove a point to the fans & flair moves to get the crowd going (although that last goal by Dortmund was training ground flair).

I found the Mainz Gladbach game was a lot like watching TFC & Seattle - two teams who preferred to counter with decent enough defences that eventually gave up stuff.


Yes, it didn't work for everybody and I can see why neutrals would go "meh". Not sure I'd want to watch Nashville vs. San Jose. BUT...put TFC in that first game & I think the emotional investment supporters have with the team would take over.

Maybe! we will see. (edit: actually i guess we wont!!!)

[OgtheDim]

So, the Leagues Cup has been cancelled.

Was that in our season's seat package?

[Cas87]

So, the Leagues Cup has been cancelled.

Was that in our season's seat package?

nope, just regular season and Canadian Championship

[Lil'John]

Interesting to see communication of Hibs (club in Scotland) to season seat holders:
The decision to end this season, 2019-20, based on points per game has seen Hibernian finish the league in seventh position, dropping one place through the method chosen to reflect the sporting performance of each team over the 30 matches completed.At this time of coronavirus-driven crisis, it brings some certainty and clarity to an otherwise extraordinary situation.Since football was shut down by Government and our sport’s governing bodies in mid-March, Hibernian fans have been magnificent in the support they have shown. Our fans continue to amaze and humble us.The season ending prematurely means supporters have seen four home matches fewer than they should have. Some fans have generously indicated they would not be seeking a refund, recognising that financing refunds when your club has had no income for several months will compound the scale of the economic pressure we face.We want to be honest – if you are able to take this course then please do. We will make it up to you, and we are looking at creating unique experiences of real value to fans – such as invitations to attend a special series of open training sessions with Jack and the first team. For all who can and do take this course, our gratitude and sincere thanks are due yet again.However, we also know some people face real challenges. The club will deal fairly with all supporters. Those fans wishing to have the unused portion of their ticket refunded should email us at tickets@hibernianfc.co.uk with their season ticket client reference number(s) before 5pm on May 29.Supporters who email us by this deadline will be refunded for the four games lost against the value they paid for their season ticket. Supporters who purchased last year via credit or debit card, will be refunded directly on to their card. Those who purchased by other means, or if your card is no longer valid, will need to be refunded manually. We ask for your patience. Please make sure your contact information is fully up to date on your account.

[Lil'John]

If you guys liked it, who am I to argue?

I felt like it was fake and weird. I only watched for 20 minutes. It just made me sad about the quarantine, so I didn’t stick with it, maybe it would have gotten better.

I will definitely check out Phonzie tonight, at least for a bit.

I guess the question will be answered by the ratings over a few weeks (no question they should be high out of the gate).


I'm not sure anyone LIKED it. The issue is whether we feel able to bear it to finish the season!

[OgtheDim]

I'm not sure anyone LIKED it. The issue is whether we feel able to bear it to finish the season!

I enjoyed it but then I didn't watch Bundesliga much before & I have no affinity to any of the teams.

Its like a rerun of a decent enough TV show that I have never watched before coming on when there is "nothing else on" - I might watch it again & like bits but its not my preference & I might find something else to do if the matches have no interest to me.

I am likely going to watch Dortmund & Bayern in a couple of weeks.

[flambe]

Has anyone seen any info related to SS refunds, aside from the deferred payment option?

[Joe Kool]

Has anyone seen any info related to SS refunds, aside from the deferred payment option?

I talked to the club about it and they said the following "Very little is confirmed right now in terms of refunds as we must await MLS confirmation on the remaining games. When they do provide further confirmation on the plan for the season, we will have a further update as to how this affects your payment plan."

So looks like until MLS makes the call to cancel games they will not be making any communications about refund options and whatnot.

[Red CB Toronto]

I do know Raptors season ticket holders were offered refunds for the 9 remaining home games that were postponed or they could use it as credit towards the 2020-21 season. The first payment is due for next season on June 8th so I am sure most did that. Thats what my cousin did anyways.

[ensco]

I know we don’t like the Impact, but this is not right

https://twitter.com/kevlaramee/status/1263265782210977792?s=21

[Joe Kool]

I am joining in on the Footy Talks show today if all goes well with my work and I don't get stuck. The guest is Bill Manning so will be interesting if anything new to tell us or just "we'll let you know when we know from the league" kind of thing in terms of moving forward.

[WestStandGeoff]

I do know Raptors season ticket holders were offered refunds for the 9 remaining home games that were postponed or they could use it as credit towards the 2020-21 season. The first payment is due for next season on June 8th so I am sure most did that. Thats what my cousin did anyways.

Same deal with my Marlies tickets, could have opted for a cheque in 4-6 weeks, or just roll the refund for cancelled games into following season deposit.

[ensco]

NBA is going to make its decision June 1-10. I trust Adam Silver to do the right thing. He won’t restart if it doesn’t make sense.

If MLS is seriously considering a restart (standard disclaimer - I don’t get the why/how of that in a gate driven league) .... I cannot see how MLS could decide any earlier, because they are talking about the same venue.

My strong suspicion is that none of these leagues are playing this summer. The real test case is the NFL in September, they are the guys with billions to lose and no concern for their athletes, really no limit on their risk tolerance at all.

[glaze]

So I had concert tix, Live Nation offers 100 percent refund, or future credit of 150 percent.
I have no issue rolling over my payments to 2021, but I hope TFC offers some token of appreciation. Maybe a free jersey per seat, in addition to no price increase, etc.

[Bushmancan]

So I had concert tix, Live Nation offers 100 percent refund, or future credit of 150 percent.
I have no issue rolling over my payments to 2021, but I hope TFC offers some token of appreciation. Maybe a free jersey per seat, in addition to no price increase, etc.


I thought the same thing exactly.... offer the SSH something that they and only they can get. Make it of value as well!

[OgtheDim]

NBA is going to make its decision June 1-10. I trust Adam Silver to do the right thing. He won’t restart if it doesn’t make sense.

If MLS is seriously considering a restart (standard disclaimer - I don’t get the why/how of that in a gate driven league) .... I cannot see how MLS could decide any earlier, because they are talking about the same venue.

...

MLS is in talks with TV networks about 2021+ contracts.

ESPN is owned by Disney and is looking for content


This isn't about gate revenue, its about the future TV revenue.


Good article up on the idea of the tournament from the Athletic (paywall)

https://theathletic.com/1828495/2020/05/21/

[Ponderosa]

I am joining in on the Footy Talks show today if all goes well with my work and I don't get stuck. The guest is Bill Manning so will be interesting if anything new to tell us or just "we'll let you know when we know from the league" kind of thing in terms of moving forward.

I missed the login time for this...any update from Manning?

[ensco]

Twitter on fire last couple of hours with reports that NBA is nearing a decision to start camp in Orlando June 21, games July 15, playoffs from late July to Labour Day.

[ensco]

MLS is in talks with TV networks about 2021+ contracts.

ESPN is owned by Disney and is looking for content


This isn't about gate revenue, its about the future TV revenue.


Good article up on the idea of the tournament from the Athletic (paywall)

https://theathletic.com/1828495/2020/05/21/

Good article. But it doesn't deal with the core point. That line about locking out the players because the deal was unratified, that sure caught my eye though...

There is no MLS TV money. It's all dreamland about a future world where they make serious TV money. But right now MLS makes $90M a year from US national rights. Let's say it's another $30M in Canada.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/major-league-soccer-has-a-25-year-plan-but-it-needs-to-secure-huge-media-deals-first.html

That is like $5M a team from national rights, and most teams get less than that for local rights (I remember when the Galaxy got $5M a year a few years back, that was 2x the next highest team).

So most teams are getting $7-10M in revenues, normally, but for a two month tourney? Maybe half that? And that is all there is. No gate.

Payrolls alone are $10-25M. A 20% cut doesn’t change the math. Plus this tournament, the sequestration, the medical side, will have enormous costs, in the many millions.

Plus, news flash, Historically, nobody watches TV in the summer. I get that this is a very weird year, but that could cut a bunch of ways. Is a somewhat weird soccer tournament going head to head with the NBA playoffs really actually that compelling? I know my historical viewing has always declined in the summer...

I don't see how they wouldn’t take a bath in the hundreds of millions. It makes zero sense.

Something else is going on here.

[Oldtimer]

^ its not about 2020. MLS has always been about the long game.

[Red CB Toronto]

Plus how engaged are the sponsors going to be in this with some of their current economic plight? The NBA and MLS are night and day in a situation like this on all fronts. A random tournament vs the NBA playoffs is a real up hill battle for them. The NBA has always been in my eyes the best suited to pull off this sprint to the final type event and have the dollars to back it up.

Plus testing to me is the real challenge but something with a dedicated lab setup you certainly can figure out, because you do need the quick turn around to pull this off.


Good article. But it doesn't deal with the core point. That line about locking out the players because the deal was unratified, that sure caught my eye though...

There is no MLS TV money. It's all dreamland about a future world where they make serious TV money. But right now MLS makes $90M a year from US national rights. Let's say it's another $30M in Canada.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/major-league-soccer-has-a-25-year-plan-but-it-needs-to-secure-huge-media-deals-first.html

That is like $5M a team from national rights, and most teams get less than that for local rights (I remember when the Galaxy got $5M a year a few years back, that was 2x the next highest team).

So most teams are getting $7-10M in revenues, normally, but for a two month tourney? Maybe half that? And that is all there is. No gate.

Payrolls alone are $10-25M. A 20% cut doesn’t change the math. Plus this tournament, the sequestration, the medical side, will have enormous costs, in the many millions.

Plus, news flash, Historically, nobody watches TV in the summer. I get that this is a very weird year, but that could cut a bunch of ways. Is a somewhat weird soccer tournament going head to head with the NBA playoffs really actually that compelling? I know my historical viewing has always declined in the summer...

I don't see how they wouldn’t take a bath in the hundreds of millions. It makes zero sense.

Something else is going on here.

[ensco]

^ its not about 2020. MLS has always been about the long game.

Sorry, losing $200M or similar on a watered down facsimile season played in brutal heat and humidity, with massive risk of a PR nightmare happening midstream, is not the long game.

[OgtheDim]

New Athletic scoop out tonight with details

Two tidbits

Games at 9 am 8pm & 10:30 pm

4 Conference finalists seeded away from each other - in theory one of Atlanta or TFC become a second seed in an eastern group behind Orlando but in practice, that doesn't mean much as the rest of the groups are placed in random. (Of course, Atlanta fans already whining why they don't get an automatic 1st seed & LAFC do)

[ensco]

If MLS want to spend $200M to move the TV needle, this would be the way to do it. Just sweep the world market for all the names coming on the market this year. I bet there are at least 10 guys like this out there, and the total cost over multiple seasons would be less than $200M

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2020/05/20/report-dc-united-weighing-statement-move-juventus-forward-gonzalo-higuain

[Joe Kool]

I missed the login time for this...any update from Manning?

There was lots of reminiscing of 2016-2019 during the show and the success we had so far and talking about how resilient the team is and how hard they work to earn their spots. He spoke about the VDW situation and the lessons learned from not doing all the background check work so he said they really changed how deep they go into looking at the personalities starting with the Pozuelo deal and then Piatti to make sure they wouldn't have another VDW situation again. He talked about the time off being a bit of a blessing for Piatti and Bradley being able to train and get therapy the entire time during the break because they were still allowed to use the TFC training centre to do it and he thinks they will be ready to play this season healthy. It sounded like Piatti needed extra time and now he got it. Bill said 18 months was really what he needed to fully recover and get back to fitness from the time he got injured and now he has it. He talked about all the stuff they did for the players to keep them fit during the break so far. As far as the season goes they are still hoping to play in some way but waiting on the board of governors and the Don to come up with the solution. It is complicated due to all states, provinces and both countries having all of their different COVID handling and restrictions. He was asked about refunds if the season doesn't have fans at BMO and he said they will definitely be doing right by their fans/members because the way they see it, how they handle this situation will reflect on how our relationship will be with the club going forward for all of us and they want to get it right and make sure they do right by everyone so he doesn't want anyone to worry about that. He talked about players and their time off and what they were doing aside from keeping fit and how happy they are to get back to training they are now able to do at the training ground even if not as a team.

That was about it. Anyone else listening in on the show can chime in here if I missed anything or misstated anything but that was it from what I recall. Lasted for an hour.

[ensco]

New Athletic scoop out tonight with details

Two tidbits

Games at 9 am 8pm & 10:30 pm

4 Conference finalists seeded away from each other - in theory one of Atlanta or TFC become a second seed in an eastern group behind Orlando but in practice, that doesn't mean much as the rest of the groups are placed in random. (Of course, Atlanta fans already whining why they don't get an automatic 1st seed & LAFC do)

If the NBA plays, they will also have multiple games a day. ESPN has no bandwidth to do anything other than stream these. The dollars for that would fit in a thimble.

[ensco]

This clearly has some sort of momentum... but as noted above the “why” of this has been bothering me so I went looking for the terms of the new CBA on this. Didn’t find it. But I did find a pretty interesting provision, buried in a USA Today story two months ago...

Hey guess what - alone amongst sports leagues, MLS are paying their players full freight! Amazingly, there is no force majeure clause in the players association agreement!

These Athletic guys are too close to the clubs, I think they should have picked up on this. They are helping the owners set the players up to be bad guys, but really, both the owners' and the players' situation are a lot different than every thinks it is.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2020/03/18/coronavirus-impacting-sports-and-professional-athletes-getting-paid/5068551002/

MLS Player Association executive director Bob Foose said the union's CBA with the league does not include any force majeure language and MLS players "are receiving, and will continue to receive, their regular bimonthly paychecks" even while play is suspended.

————-

If you have to pay payroll regardless, then the math is completely different. It's incremental revenue regardless. Even better, if you propose a tourney in “good faith” and the players don't show, you win big time - you can lock them out and stop paying payroll. The fact that games would be buried on some ESPN streaming service is a feature, not a bug!

This also explains why Vela and Bedoya and various others are super grumpy about this. Why play in some fake event in horrible conditions, and risk Covid, if you can just sip pina coladas all day and get paid?

There are probably virtual conference rooms full of labour lawyers involved in this on both sides, and probably driving what happens here.

This thing is probably just as likely to be heading to court as it is the fields of Orlando.

—————-

The media coverage of this league really sucks now.

If I have this right, this is an epic disaster for the owners, and Garber and Abbott may lose their jobs because of this.

[MightyDM]

Good article. But it doesn't deal with the core point. That line about locking out the players because the deal was unratified, that sure caught my eye though...

There is no MLS TV money. It's all dreamland about a future world where they make serious TV money. But right now MLS makes $90M a year from US national rights. Let's say it's another $30M in Canada.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/major-league-soccer-has-a-25-year-plan-but-it-needs-to-secure-huge-media-deals-first.html

That is like $5M a team from national rights, and most teams get less than that for local rights (I remember when the Galaxy got $5M a year a few years back, that was 2x the next highest team).

So most teams are getting $7-10M in revenues, normally, but for a two month tourney? Maybe half that? And that is all there is. No gate.

Payrolls alone are $10-25M. A 20% cut doesn’t change the math. Plus this tournament, the sequestration, the medical side, will have enormous costs, in the many millions.

Plus, news flash, Historically, nobody watches TV in the summer. I get that this is a very weird year, but that could cut a bunch of ways. Is a somewhat weird soccer tournament going head to head with the NBA playoffs really actually that compelling? I know my historical viewing has always declined in the summer...

I don't see how they wouldn’t take a bath in the hundreds of millions. It makes zero sense.

Something else is going on here.

This likely affects MLS the least, but the backdrop to everything that is happening is the US election this year. The White House is desperate for things to return to normal and the billionaire owners of the NFL are mostly friends with the current occupant. That will dictate that (in addition to the cogent arguments Ensco has made about weak players union etc) the NFL will play this fall. i doubt that the MLS owners are all as close to Trump as the NFL, but some may well be and the league will be getting pressure to open up from the White House, to the extent it has noticed the league - and there will be pressure from sponsors etc who know that the NFL is going ahead."If they are, why cant you? Are you sissies" will be the tone.

its all crazy. There will be a second wave. How do you manage that? What happens when players get sick - they already have in the EPL - or god forbid get seriously ill. Will it just be treated like an injury (Injuries: "Jones, knee, day to day; Davis, two weeks, ventilator, covid related") but very serious politics will be behind it. MLS probably being caught in the wake.

[Oldtimer]

Hey guess what - alone amongst sports leagues, MLS are paying their players full freight! Amazingly, there is no force majeure clause in the players association agreement!



That's why playing in the summer is for the long game. The biggest part of MLS' costs are fixed costs, so there's no "investment" or down-side, apart from the costs of running this mini-tourney "empty venue." They aren't going to make a lot in revenue, but it keeps their broadcast partners happier than they otherwise would be, and that's critical to the long-term game. It also may introduce new eyes to MLS, as there isn't a lot of sports out there right now.

The biggest question is whether players will feel safe (and actually be relatively safe). The whole idea can easily be scuttled.

[ensco]

That's why playing in the summer is for the long game. The biggest part of MLS' costs are fixed costs, so there's no "investment" or down-side, apart from the costs of running this mini-tourney "empty venue." They aren't going to make a lot in revenue, but it keeps their broadcast partners happier than they otherwise would be, and that's critical to the long-term game. It also may introduce new eyes to MLS, as there isn't a lot of sports out there right now.

The biggest question is whether players will feel safe (and actually be relatively safe). The whole idea can easily be scuttled.

We profoundly disagree. This looks like the ultimate short term move.

Nothing here looks like burnishing the brand or working with the players. This is a situation where someone got profoundly outnegotiated, and is trying to find ways out, and is apparently willing to go to the mattresses to get out. It's pretty ugly, beneath the surface.

[jabbronies]

If I was a league looking at my assets (players), I'd be concerned about players not playing for an entire year - what that'll do to their fitness, skills, reflexes etc. I bet the players are feeling the same way. No player wants to take a year off.

[Richard]

If I was a league looking at my assets (players), I'd be concerned about players not playing for an entire year - what that'll do to their fitness, skills, reflexes etc. I bet the players are feeling the same way. No player wants to take a year off.

This is much less of a concern nowadays, they can run their kilometers weekly and TFC has one of the best facilities in NA.

[OgtheDim]

I'm more concerned about what not playing for a year does to team cohesion.

Even at the best of times, players come in and out of form and have to make adjustments due to age e.g. 23 year old speed not the same as 20 year old

A soccer team is not a machine- its a complex organism that only works as well as its ability to adapt to the changing variables within itself.

[Red CB Toronto]

I would be curious to know what the threshold is when it comes to not continuing to pay someone's salary in this situation. Is it simple as announcing a plan for all players to report to Florida on July 1st to prepare for the resumption of play regardless of the format it takes ie this mini tournament? If a said players chooses not to, I guess he would be in violation of his contract?


This clearly has some sort of momentum... but as noted above the “why” of this has been bothering me so I went looking for the terms of the new CBA on this. Didn’t find it. But I did find a pretty interesting provision, buried in a USA Today story two months ago...

Hey guess what - alone amongst sports leagues, MLS are paying their players full freight! Amazingly, there is no force majeure clause in the players association agreement!

These Athletic guys are too close to the clubs, I think they should have picked up on this. They are helping the owners set the players up to be bad guys, but really, both the owners' and the players' situation are a lot different than every thinks it is.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2020/03/18/coronavirus-impacting-sports-and-professional-athletes-getting-paid/5068551002/

MLS Player Association executive director Bob Foose said the union's CBA with the league does not include any force majeure language and MLS players "are receiving, and will continue to receive, their regular bimonthly paychecks" even while play is suspended.

————-

If you have to pay payroll regardless, then the math is completely different. It's incremental revenue regardless. Even better, if you propose a tourney in “good faith” and the players don't show, you win big time - you can lock them out and stop paying payroll. The fact that games would be buried on some ESPN streaming service is a feature, not a bug!

This also explains why Vela and Bedoya and various others are super grumpy about this. Why play in some fake event in horrible conditions, and risk Covid, if you can just sip pina coladas all day and get paid?

There are probably virtual conference rooms full of labour lawyers involved in this on both sides, and probably driving what happens here.

This thing is probably just as likely to be heading to court as it is the fields of Orlando.

—————-

The media coverage of this league really sucks now.

If I have this right, this is an epic disaster for the owners, and Garber and Abbott may lose their jobs because of this.

[Oldtimer]

We profoundly disagree. This looks like the ultimate short term move.

Nothing here looks like burnishing the brand or working with the players. This is a situation where someone got profoundly outnegotiated, and is trying to find ways out, and is apparently willing to go to the mattresses to get out. It's pretty ugly, beneath the surface.

It's all a matter of interpretation of MLS' actions. I don't expect the Don to come out and make a statement giving their real reasons :drinking:.

I too can't believe that they didn't put in a force majeure clause. It makes one wonder how good is the legal advice the owners are getting.

For contrast, Wimbledon paid for pandemic insurance for years. They now come off looking like geniuses. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/tennis/2020/04/09/wimbledon-pandemic-insurance-policy-payout-141-million/5123987002/

[jabbronies]

This is much less of a concern nowadays, they can run their kilometers weekly and TFC has one of the best facilities in NA.

Cardio and strength vs playing are very different things.

[Ponderosa]

If I was a league looking at my assets (players), I'd be concerned about players not playing for an entire year - what that'll do to their fitness, skills, reflexes etc. I bet the players are feeling the same way. No player wants to take a year off.

That's true...also at the same time...I worry about the long term health effects on a player if they do catch it. This virus seriously messes up your lungs and heart capacity - it has the potential to be career ending as we don't fully know what recover looks like. It's a dicey thing to risk a player worth millions of dollars - balancing the greater harm - being benched or virus?

[ensco]

We know pretty much nothing other than vague generalities about how you get it, how lethal it is if you get it, etc.

As it relates to any non essential activity that inherently puts people potentially shedding the virus in close quarters with others for prolonged periods, such as contact sports, I really don’t see the validity of any argument other than that hunkering down is the correct thing to do.

I get that money changes that equation. But it really shouldn’t.

[Oldtimer]

I really don’t see the validity of any argument other than that hunkering down is the correct thing to do.

I get that money changes that equation. But it really shouldn’t.

Couldn't agree with you more. It would be terrible if someone associated with this in any capacity had permanent lung damage, or even worse, death from this. I'd rather do without than see that happen.

[OgtheDim]

Only took 2 weeks for "this is the new normal" to develop about sports without fans. The pressure to do something for every sport is increasing.


**************

Right now, its mentally OK for me to watch games from Germany where I know everybody is tested and stuff is all being monitored properly.

Watching stuff from the States though. where the social inequities of this disease are appalling and the "just let the old die for the rest of us" grifters are out in full force (but not the majority) ....that's going to be a different moral choice - not quite like watching sports from Apartheid South Africa but troubling none the less.

[OgtheDim]

So there is a "piped in crowd noise" option that Fox in the US has but Sportsnet does not.

I would absolutely loathe that.

We know there is no crowd - piping in FAKE crowd noise disrespects the supporters who go each and every week and now can't.

IF this thing in Orlando happens & TSN do that for TFC & I'm turning off the sound & talking to my TFC rep about it.

[ensco]

Everyone wants sports in the way that everyone wants this to be over. But that isn’t the same thing as wanting sports now, in the context of where we are.

I don’t think there is a general growth in “pressure” to restart televised sports, outside owners and players (who have the economic interest- exception being MLS players). There is certainly pressure to resume outdoor activities, especially with summer arriving. But that is different.

There is certainly a large number of underemployed sportswriters that are being fed the idea that there is pressure. Plus of course there is Trump and his base.

I think most people, even in the US, are fine with no sports, if sports don’t make sense, and this idea that there is a groundswell of huge yearning - that is mostly AstroTurf and not the grass roots .

[Redcoe15]

Looks like the NHL's going ahead with a 24 team Stanley Cup playoffs. Sounds good, until the first player tests positive for the virus. :facepalm: :frown2:

https://twitter.com/NHLdotcom/status/1265386151352https://twitter.com/NHLdotcom/status/1265386151352979461

[MikeForbes]

I would settle for watching TFC playing on the moon at this point.

[Smokecell]

The NHL plan sounds like it was devised by a bunch of kids on recess planning a schoolyard ball hockey tournament. I feel like Bettman is someone that I would not want leading my organization through this pandemic.

Also the journos pushing the narrative that Canada’s quarantine laws are hindering the return of hockey should give their heads a shake. I hope we do not budge - hub city is so irrelevant for a spectatorless event.

[OgtheDim]

Also the journos pushing the narrative that Canada’s quarantine laws are hindering the return of hockey should give their heads a shake. I hope we do not budge - hub city is so irrelevant for a spectatorless event.


Hockey culture in this country is toxic - Don Cherry was an anamoly in the 70's but people thought his attitudes were the norm - he warped thinking about that sport for so long that it is now rampantly sexist, racist, thin skinned, averse to change, & promotes social darwinism through a sick "follow the code" approach to everything.

Many of the mainline media sports journalists grew up playing hockey to a certain level and thus are steeped within that culture - this breeds the hockey is Canada myth while "soccer is for whimps" thing that you still see among some of the 30 year old sport journos today.

Thankfully, a growing amount of sports journalism in this country is being done by people outside of the main conglomerates. I may not always agree with Shireen Ahmed, for example, but it is possible to not be a classic white dude and talk about hockey in this country.

This idea that Canada is in the wrong about quarantines because it hurts hockey is sick.

[Richard]

Hockey culture in this country is toxic - Don Cherry was an anamoly in the 70's but people thought his attitudes were the norm - he warped thinking about that sport for so long that it is now rampantly sexist, racist, thin skinned, averse to change, & promotes social darwinism through a sick "follow the code" approach to everything.

Many of the mainline media sports journalists grew up playing hockey to a certain level and thus are steeped within that culture - this breeds the hockey is Canada myth while "soccer is for whimps" thing that you still see among some of the 30 year old sport journos today.

Thankfully, a growing amount of sports journalism in this country is being done by people outside of the main conglomerates. I may not always agree with Shireen Ahmed, for example, but it is possible to not be a classic white dude and talk about hockey in this country.

This idea that Canada is in the wrong about quarantines because it hurts hockey is sick.

I wish there were more prominent figures who would call out the toxic nature. 100% accurate in your analysis. Anyways who the F wants play hockey in 30 degree weather.

Jeez, they should just do a ball hockey tournament and donate proceeds to Covid research. End the season and regroup in the fall, whoever wins should bin their ring, absolutely worthless this year.

[ensco]

The MLS owners in their proposal have asked for players to give them the pandemic language they forgot to negotiate for in February. I would pay money to see Jozy's unfiltered reaction to that.

Get ready for lockout threats and tryouts etc. This is going to be brass knuckles time.

[OgtheDim]

MLS teams allowed to open up for small voluntary group sessions


Details here https://www.torontofc.ca/post/2020/05/28/mls-clubs-begin-voluntary-small-group-training-sessions

[Red CB Toronto]

The National Women's Soccer League has announced their plans for a tournament at the end of June in Utah. It marks the first North American league to return to play.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2020/05/27/nwsl-announces-plans-return-play-2020-challenge-cup

[ensco]

Premier League quadrupleheaders every Saturday and Sunday starting June 20. Serie A back June 20 also. NBA playoffs all but certain (much as I think that is a horrible mistake)

So yeah, definitely, MLS games at 9am in swampy heat played for the 1000 hardcore that'll stream it, yup, so much pressure to do that, just so much pressure....

[OgtheDim]

This all sounds earily similar to the "time to open back up" sounds we were hearing in Ontario a couple of weeks ago.

"Somebody else is open, so we must too"

[Initial B]

To be fair, Georgia has been open for over a month and it hasn't seen a spike in Covid cases, but it hasn't gone down either. Then again, they seem to be taking the social distancing pretty seriously compared to some other states.

[Auzzy]

To be fair, Georgia has been open for over a month and it hasn't seen a spike in Covid cases, but it hasn't gone down either. Then again, they seem to be taking the social distancing pretty seriously compared to some other states.

Georgia hasn't seen a spike in Covid cases... but they've seen a big spike in "pneumonia" deaths. I think a couple of states are badly faking it. I'll post some stats when I find them...

For starters here are some US-wide numbers: supposed pneumonia & flu deaths, w/o those classified as COVID-19. For the FULL years, the US averaged 55,641 of those deaths per year between 2014-2018. Through just less than 5 MONTHS in 2020, the pneumonia & flu provisional deaths are already at 101,398. WTF?!

So far I'm only finding the fake numbers for Florida. Earlier today, I saw a similar chart including Florida, Texas, and Georgia. Georgia's numbers weren't as crazy as the other two, but still obviously way more "pneumonia" deaths than could be expected compared with other years.

Plus somebody needs to look for abnormal spikes in deaths due to bronchitis, strokes, other heart & lung problems, and further unusual COVID-19 impacts. COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted in many countries; often it was because systems were overloaded (e.g. northern Italy), and/or people that died at home or in old-age homes were never tested. Beyond that, some countries, including some US states, are evidently cooking the books on purpose.

EDIT here's some more, including Georgia. You need to click through to Twitter to see the full chart. For February through May, Georgia has almost 900 more "pneumonia" deaths than the previous years' average. Add those to Georgia's COVID-19 totals. Plus other mis-ID'd cases as mentioned above. But w/o knowing when all these other deaths happened, there's no way of knowing if there was a spike in COVID-19 deaths after Georgia started re-opening.

https://twitter.com/JPAH1966/status/1266351939291357184

[ensco]

I can’t get my head around the NBA restart, which is sounding inevitable now.

I just don’t get it. I don’t care how much you “seal” any bubble, you will have have hundreds (thousands?) going in and out, and home, every day. Hotel staff, security.

Plus, cmon. That is an indoor, full contact sport.

It just seems crazy.

[Auzzy]

I can’t get my head around the NBA restart, which is sounding inevitable now.

I just don’t get it. I don’t care how much you “seal” any bubble, you will have have hundreds (thousands?) going in and out, and home, every day. Hotel staff, security.

Plus, cmon. That is an indoor, full contact sport.

It just seems crazy.

Maybe play it outdoors, Venice-Beach style.

[ensco]

Half of NBA players, at least, have “drop dead” money (ie $10M net worth or whatever the number you think is a enough to tell anyone in the world to “drop dead”)

If I were one of those, I just wouldn’t show up.

If I showed up, I wouldn’t play defence.

[ensco]

I am actually seeing how soccer can work. It's outdoors, and aside from free kicks and corners, which are only maybe 5% of game play, there isn't much of the kind of proximity that seems to be the cause of spread.

I get why the Premier League, Serie A and La Liga, the top leagues, will restart.

[OgtheDim]

MLSPA has put in a counter proposal - includes a 7.5% pay cut. 4 week tourney. One issue is the latest CBA (not yet ratified) was to have revenue sharing start in 2020 - owners want to defer that now. That's another paycut.

All this in an Athletic article - https://theathletic.com/1846205/2020/05/30/sources-mlspa-approves-return-to-play-proposal-to-send-to-owners/

[ensco]

^Players are requiring “final say” on the league's health and safety plan.

Until that part is a lot more clear, I don’t think they are nearly as close as “putting in a counter proposal” implies.

Also, events this weekend are overtaking everything. The leagues may now not be able to provide the massive level of security to “seal” any of these venues, that security may be needed elsewhere.

[OgtheDim]

Well the rank & file voted for it

https://twitter.com/MLSPA/status/1267254682361237506

[ensco]

Listen, I don’t want to be annoying or a broken record... but the players are playing this out with skill. They see the blame game coming, the accusations about how they won’t play, etc

What they voted for was a plan that gave them 100% of the control on whether to ultimately play or not. That is nowhere near voting on a detailed plan that has been mutually agreed upon.

The players made a concession. They’ll accept a 7.5% pay cut ( which signals to me that 15% is their bottom line). But that is all they are going to give, and even then, they reserve the right to walk away for any reason they feel like.

Just my humble opinion. If I turn out to be wrong I will say so.

(I am a bit out on a limb as none of the MLS writers anywhere are saying this, but my opinion is that they are all getting played and don’t understand labour negotiations.)

[OgtheDim]

Players also extending the negotiatied CBA by a year. So, yeah, a bit of PR going on here.

Many in the US are comparing this to the MLB discussions which seem to be going nowhere.


I think this gets done, especially with the EPL coming back soon.

[ensco]

I have been lamenting the coverage of this. Overnight, finally, a major MLS writer starts talking some sense.

Lockout tomorrow?

https://www.espn.com/football/major-league-soccer/story/4104589/lockout-looms-as-mls-push-back-on-latest-offer-from-major-league-soccer-player-association (https://www.espn.com/football/major-league-soccer/story/4104589/lockout-looms-as-mls-push-back-on-latest-offer-from-major-league-soccer-player-association)

Although he doesn’t seem to understand the root cause. Is there nobody in the soccer world who was curious enough to figure out on his/her own that the MLS player, alone in sports, has been getting paid here? Neither side is ever going to just “tell” anyone about this - Garber knows he should be fired for not negotiating this clause properly, and MLSPA has an interest in maintaining status quo, it doesn’t need to hasten the inevitable stories about “greedy players” (those are coming now, spurred by owners - bank it)

These reporters need to stop relying 100% on league or player “sources” and start doing some thinking on their own...

So the article stops short of what I think is the correct view, which is that the lockout (ie to stop paying the players) is the whole point of this charade. There is no revenue expectation from this sham tournament, and they are fine with the risk to the brand. There is no long game. MLS owners just want the bleeding (ie player salaries of $70M a month) to stop, and if that means weird games with scabs that they pay $20K for a month in the Florida heat, fine. If you need to play these "games" at 9am, all the better, it makes the recovery from this sorry ass episode easier.

The real question is, will the MLS owners moves stand up in court? Have they done enough to convince a court that they have bargained for this summer tournament “in good faith”? (we need someone to talk to a labour lawyer here)

[Oldtimer]

^I don't know if Garber should be fired or not for this, the owners will need to decide if they personally blame him for the situation, however the league's lawyers missing a force majeur clause is not a good look on them. Those clauses are common in all sorts of contracts including sports contracts.

That article is a good find. To me it looks like the owners have the upper hand in this situation.

[Richard]

Owners have no-one to blame but themselves. Boohoo.

[ensco]

To me it looks like the owners have the upper hand in this situation.

To me it looks like the owners would be in breach of their labour contract if they lock the players out over the players' unwillingness to risk their lives for this fake sham event.

[magmadragon]

So what do the players really gain by giving those concessions? Nothing is stopping them from sitting on their asses and collecting all that is owed due to the lack of force majeure clause.

[ensco]

So what do the players really gain by giving those concessions? Nothing is stopping them from sitting on their asses and collecting all that is owed due to the lack of force majeure clause.

Nicely summarized

[OgtheDim]

So what do the players really gain by giving those concessions? Nothing is stopping them from sitting on their asses and collecting all that is owed due to the lack of force majeure clause.

The concessions made in the latest player offer are "see we want to work here".

MLS locking out its players may happen although there would be little to no support for ownership to do that. Would be interesting to see what spin the owners would put out.


Playing with scabs during a pandemic in a locked down facility would be ignored - darts would get larger crowds. Can't see ESPN going for a scab fake tourney with no crowds. Can you imagine what Timber's army would say?


I can see a lockout but honestly, I think a deal gets done. Its in both sides interests to have something going on this summer.

[Smokecell]

I can see a lockout but honestly, I think a deal gets done. Its in both sides interests to have something going on this summer.

Is it though?

If I’m a player I can be at home safely with my family getting full pay.

If I’m an owner I don’t see how I profit from this Orlando tournament.

As a selfish fan of course I want to see something happen.

[OgtheDim]

Owners & players profit through keeping the league seen this summer. Usually, MLS has soccer to itself in the summer - there will be a LOT of domestic European soccer going on. MLS can't lose that many eyeballs.


****

Twellman saying there is a breakthrough


https://twitter.com/TaylorTwellman/status/1267831797733380096

[Red CB Toronto]

How many eye balls would you expect to get playing at 9 am on a Tuesday on a training ground down in Florida? Maybe there can use a few stadiums to spread things out and avoid some early morning kickoffs. Not sure how much exposure you will get if the NBA and NHL playoffs are going on at the same time. This is going to be a tough up hill battle for them.


Owners & players profit through keeping the league seen this summer. Usually, MLS has soccer to itself in the summer - there will be a LOT of domestic European soccer going on. MLS can't lose that many eyeballs.


****

Twellman saying there is a breakthrough


https://twitter.com/TaylorTwellman/status/1267831797733380096

[Joe Kool]

How many eye balls would you expect to get playing at 9 am on a Tuesday on a training ground down in Florida? Maybe there can use a few stadiums to spread things out and avoid some early morning kickoffs. Not sure how much exposure you will get if the NBA and NHL playoffs are going on at the same time. This is going to be a tough up hill battle for them.

They can count on my two eyeballs....if that helps :)

[Oldtimer]

How many eye balls would you expect to get playing at 9 am on a Tuesday on a training ground down in Florida? Maybe there can use a few stadiums to spread things out and avoid some early morning kickoffs. Not sure how much exposure you will get if the NBA and NHL playoffs are going on at the same time. This is going to be a tough up hill battle for them.

I'm kind of expecting that the matches will be repeated in prime time.

[OgtheDim]

Eyeballs in Europe if no games are on - this will be on Sky in the UK.

Players voting tomorrow on latest offer from MLS - league backed down on things.

[Blindside16]

How many eye balls would you expect to get playing at 9 am on a Tuesday on a training ground down in Florida? Maybe there can use a few stadiums to spread things out and avoid some early morning kickoffs. Not sure how much exposure you will get if the NBA and NHL playoffs are going on at the same time. This is going to be a tough up hill battle for them.

I would love that as I work nights... but I understand that I am for the most part an exception to the rule

[MightyDM]

^I don't know if Garber should be fired or not for this, the owners will need to decide if they personally blame him for the situation, however the league's lawyers missing a force majeur clause is not a good look on them. Those clauses are common in all sorts of contracts including sports contracts.

That article is a good find. To me it looks like the owners have the upper hand in this situation.

There might be reasons we don't know - for example, was the force majeur clause left out on purpose because of some legal impact on the single entity system? or becasue its existence confirmed some legal argument the union had about a separate issue, like health and safety?

[OgtheDim]

MLS negotiating seems to be dependent upon whom Garber is listening to that day.

The hardline "we want to change a few other things" stance of the weekend sounded like the old guard - the Hunts & Kraft & their disciples like Precourt & the guy in Minnesota.

The "lets not be stupid here, take what we got & get back" stance of yesterday sounded like MLSE, Blank & LAFC's ownership posse.


I would be shocked if this doesn't pass today and we have MLS in a bubble by the end of the month.

***********

Even if we get this bubble tourney, the reason for this thread still exists. MLS 2020 for us as supporters who go to games - that is over. And MLS should admit that games with fans are not coming back so people can get $ or credits.

[Oldtimer]

Even if we get this bubble tourney, the reason for this thread still exists. MLS 2020 for us as supporters who go to games - that is over. And MLS should admit that games with fans are not coming back so people can get $ or credits.

That's the next thing that should happen. I realize that they may be hoping against hope that they can rescue the season, or part of it, but that does not seem possible at this point. Even next year will depend on a vaccine or effective medications becoming readily available.

[Yohan]

https://twitter.com/kbaxter11/status/1268195303720488960

[OgtheDim]

Yup

Here's the player statement

https://twitter.com/MLSPA/status/1268193445224554496

[ensco]

Interesting saw off. In return for not fighting the players on keeping almost all (92.5%) of this years windfall, the league got the players to agree they they won’t be paid if this goes into 2021. Which seems fair - the league would fold if this kept going. The league was pretty obviously in a very weak legal position on the “lockout” - any court would have seen through it.

I still am somewhat dubious that the Orlando tournament will actually happen, given the cost/benefit. But I certainly see that everyone wants to do it.

I am not sure Garber/Abbott survive this. If I am an MLS owner I am beyond upset, as this negotiating error has cost me $15-25M (depending on the team). It's too big to fob off on lawyers. Everybody else had this provision.

[Yohan]

I am not sure Garber/Abbott survive this. If I am an MLS owner I am beyond upset, as this negotiating error has cost me $15-25M (depending on the team). It's too big to fob off on lawyers. Everybody else had this provision.
A mistake, but a minor in the grand scheme of things considering how Garber and his team grew the league and the value of each team.

[ensco]

A mistake, but a minor in the grand scheme of things considering how Garber and his team grew the league and the value of each team.

Could be, as this maybe is the right way to look at it.

Not, in my experience, how these types of guys think.

This is a real life, hard to call, management case study.

Garber is a marketing guy, but Abbott is a lawyer. So maybe they will train their ire on Abbott. But Garber is an anomaly, it's actually unusual for a league president NOT to be a lawyer. This is Exhibit A of why that is. Not sure how that all might wash out.

A strong owner would definitely question all of his/her own decisions around this. You can't blame Garber for not being something you knew he wasn't. (This is why I never got mad at Anselmi or Mariner - if someone is put into a role that they are not qualified for, the responsible party is the one that supported/appointed them)

[Oldtimer]

United Soccer Marketing is Garber's legacy, as is adopting international rules for MLS (may seem obvious today, but until him they were trying to "Americanize" the game, just like the NASL did). Those are pretty big positives, generally would make him safe.

Now it's possible that these rich owners (and they are no longer only "guys," there is now also female ownership) will say "what have you done for me recently?" However, it's not just Garber who screwed up, it's the negotiating committee, the lawyers, and ultimately the board of Governors. Yeah, I could totally be wrong, they could make him the scapegoat, give him a golden parachute and replace him, but I don't believe that they want to do anything radical at this point.

He's close to retirement in a year or two, they will replace him with a carefully chosen candidate at that time.

[ensco]

https://twitter.com/grantwahl/status/1268281026595479552?s=21

[OgtheDim]

He's close to retirement in a year or two, they will replace him with a carefully chosen candidate at that time.

Agreed

Garber made a point yesterday of saying he was the one who inserted the lockout discussion. You only do that if you know you are not around in a couple of seasons. He may or may not have been the instigator but he is going to take the fall. Possibly because the force majeure clause fiasco was going to cost him anyways so why not attempt to get something out of a "forlorn hope" charge.

What the ploy did do is actually give the players a little bit of influence over who the next commissioner is going to be - gonna be a person who comes across somewhat as a conciliator that can "work with our player partners".

Chess moves

[ensco]

The caretaker scenario, could be. I dunno. Those types of setups are not great, they are inherently unstable, with all the politics/jockeying for future position, and you want people taking long term decisions. It also implies a level of cohesion among the owners that may or may not be there.

I wonder if Bez is a candidate for the job btw

[SoccMan2]

Too lazy to scroll through this thread to see if this was talked about. However, I would like to know why don’t they just play regular season games in Orlando rather than have this meaningless tournament? This tournament I think is a colossal waist of time and money. Just play regular season games in Orlando and go from there.

[ensco]

Too lazy to scroll through this thread to see if this was talked about. However, I would like to know why don’t they just play regular season games in Orlando rather than have this meaningless tournament? This tournament I think is a colossal waist of time and money. Just play regular season games in Orlando and go from there.

It's about the home gates, which are the main source of revenue. If there is a way they can, somehow, get the season in by playing two games a week in the fall in the usual format, with home games, they will do that. That's why no refunds so far.

They are dreaming in technicolour, of course, but that is the thought process.

[Red CB Toronto]

It's about the home gates, which are the main source of revenue. If there is a way they can, somehow, get the season in by playing two games a week in the fall in the usual format, with home games, they will do that. That's why no refunds so far.

They are dreaming in technicolour, of course, but that is the thought process.

Its likely there will be able to do that with fans in the stands in places like Dallas, Orlando and Atlanta etc but there no chance in my mind it will happen here in Toronto and other cities in 2020.

[kottisinick]

So what’s going on with our seasons tix? Like what they waiting for ?

[TorcidaSplit]

Most likely they’ll give us credit for next season

[spe18]

Too lazy to scroll through this thread to see if this was talked about. However, I would like to know why don’t they just play regular season games in Orlando rather than have this meaningless tournament? This tournament I think is a colossal waist of time and money. Just play regular season games in Orlando and go from there.


It's about the home gates, which are the main source of revenue. If there is a way they can, somehow, get the season in by playing two games a week in the fall in the usual format, with home games, they will do that. That's why no refunds so far.

They are dreaming in technicolour, of course, but that is the thought process.

Plus it's proposed that games in the group stage will count towards the regular season standings.

[TFC1986]

has anyone ticket manager at MLSE reached out to them?

[Red CB Toronto]

Some the greatest fears teams could have is becoming a reality for some.
Nearly 50 Alabama football players the took part in 'should' go into quarantine following at least 5 positive COVID-19 tests. It has been confirmed that at least one took part in voluntary team workouts. All leagues and teams have to be 110% sure about how they are moving forward to return to action


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/football_ncaa/report-nearly-50-alabama-players-should-go-into-quarantine-following-positive-covid-19-tests/ar-BB15307q?fbclid=IwAR0LNXQvDY7Twx8J6PcaLMuxZ9zeXBk6 lQ_eVSujE9VbbcxaI03W4Eg61Sg (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/football_ncaa/report-nearly-50-alabama-players-should-go-into-quarantine-following-positive-covid-19-tests/ar-BB15307q?fbclid=IwAR0LNXQvDY7Twx8J6PcaLMuxZ9zeXBk6 lQ_eVSujE9VbbcxaI03W4Eg61Sg)

[magmadragon]

I have to say ML$E suspending the final payment was silly. Yeah that's really gonna make a difference at this point....

They really need to sweeten the pot if it's going to be a credit. Not just say it'll be the same price, or the same minus that last payment. IDK maybe throw a jersey in or something, or a bonus credit for 2022 or something like that. Manning said he'd do right by us on his conference call. Hope he means it.

[ensco]

MLSE is doing the right thing for Leafs season ticket holders, so I think it'll eventually be OK. The Leafs are offering a refund for games not played (which they already rolled into an advance for 2020-21), or a small food credit if you stick it out.

“If you currently have money on account with MLSE for 2020‑21 seasons seat payments and would like to request a refund for the amount on account, you may do so by completing the online refund request form.

If you elect to keep money on account with MLSE, as a show of MLSE’s appreciation you will be provided with a Food & Beverage and Special Merchandise Credit at Scotiabank Arena equal to 5% of the funds held on account.”

[Joe Kool]

I know the info has been out for a while now but I was just reading all the fine print of the different stages of re-opening of Ontario and Toronto won't even be out of Stage 1 anytime soon it looks like. Then once finally in Stage 2 we have to be in that stage for some time to prove we can move to Stage 3. Even when we get to Stage 3 down the road there is still this note in the Stage 3 info saying "Large public gatherings such as concerts, night clubs and sporting events will continue to be restricted for the foreseeable future." so pretty safe for MLSE to start addressing this with us season seat members. We won't be getting the ok to have any games this year as we all thought. Even the bigger gatherings such as churches in Stage 2 are only being allowed 30% capacity when they are allowed to open. I am assuming even once BMO Field is allowed to open they will be told to limit capacity which is even something Manning said would likely happen when they are allowed to have fans at the games that not all fans will be able to come right away and it will be staggered approach. That will be a nightmare to manage telling some fans they can come and some they can't.

[ensco]

A very smart guy I know in the medical community says that:

-if, if, the numbers keep improving (as they have generally in Canada, although Toronto has been persistently unable to turn the corner)
- and,
- if, if, there is no second wave later in the year

then there will be a general return to work (and concerts and sports) in November.

But expect to have to wear masks for a while

(This is the absolute best case scenario. He thinks there will be a second wave fwiw, and we are more likely looking at general reopening this time next year. He expects it to die out before a vaccine arrives. Just one man's guess.)

You will know we are getting close when OTHER countries stop requiring us to quarantine if we visit them. (US excepted because of the politics of our border with them)

[Auzzy]

I read everything above. I just wanted to mention there’s a very significant increase of Covid cases in many US states again. (E.g. Arizona hospitals reaching crisis levels.) That will affect the level of risk for our athletes heading to the US for training and “tournaments” that have been announced.

Also it will be hard to keep the borders closed forever. (Although I’m a US American & and am fine with keeping them closed indefinitely.) Eventually the disease may creep back into Canada from the US, affecting the timelines discussed above.

[OgtheDim]

The people who look at this stuff to figure out patterns (epidemiologists) were surveyed as to what their behavior was going to be in the next few months and year. The largest amount for "unlikely to do in the next 18 months" - sports events.

That having been said, look for 6 foot distancing crowds to become a thing - South Korean baseball has been trying that out.

All this while US universities attempt to reopen and spikes reoccur - see Alabama football players.

**********


Given 3 weeks ago none of us were discussing BLM, there's a whole lotta living to happen before we go to games again.

[ensco]

I find the predictions have a higher level of certainty than makes sense to me. They all seem to be centred on the track of the Spanish flu in 1918. That was a “monster second wave” pandemic, that was mostly gone after 12-18 months. But every virus mutates differently, and how it strengthens and degrades, and how big the waves are, and how fast the waves come, seems kind of random (we know shockingly little about viruses, we don’t even know if they are “alive”)

This could be mostly over, or go on for 8 years (or until a vaccine), or anything in between. It could fool us into thinking it is gone, then explode back. Nobody has any idea, really.

I would note that the first wave of this thing has crested/receded after about two months in every geography it hits, regardless of the level of isolation in that geography. This was not the prediction. Isolation has seemingly impacted the number of victims but not the time of active spread in a community. Herd immunity is seemingly not what is causing the numbers to drop (although one question is whether hundreds of millions of us actually have had it and don’t know it). It also seems that far more people are resistant to the virus than was expected.