Will TFC make the playoffs? [Archive]

SPALE

08-03-2019, 08:06 PM

I would love to see how all the newcomers fit in and play before placing any bet on this. But I think they will squeak in 6-7 but unless they fix the back 4 issue don’t see them making any noise If I look at the first 45 tonight and how they controlled the play and pace I think for sure but then I remember the second half against Cincinnati and the second half tonight and I think oh boy this is just brutal. But I think we do get that last spot

portu

08-03-2019, 08:42 PM

The bar to make the playoffs is too low to miss imo. Missing the playoffs would be beyond atrocious under the new system.

Oldtimer

08-03-2019, 08:46 PM

According to Joshua Kloke, 49 points is the magic number, which would be winning 6/10 matches.

Richard

08-03-2019, 10:14 PM

Its only 7 points to 1st in the East. If our new TAM player show ups and not perpetually "Two Weeks Away" we've got a chance.

Areathrasher

08-03-2019, 10:22 PM

https://i0.wp.com/adaptershack.com/m/files/_tmp_php1xna7z_magic8ball1.jpg

stegosaurus

08-04-2019, 07:24 AM

It’s possible, the bar is low, and many of the remaining matches have the potential to be winnable.

That said, the potential for a repeat of last season is high, and the constant injuries certainly don’t give me warm, fuzzy feelings.

OgtheDim

08-04-2019, 08:54 AM

5 results went our way last night.

The Orlando game - we lose that and we drop down to 9th.

barticusz

08-04-2019, 12:36 PM

That Houston game cost us the playoffs in my mind. Perfect opportunity to keep us rolling and we played TFc2 out there.

Winning 6 of 10 is just not going to happen with this team.

stevep

08-04-2019, 02:29 PM

That Houston game cost us the playoffs in my mind. Perfect opportunity to keep us rolling and we played TFc2 out there.

Winning 6 of 10 is just not going to happen with this team.

If we get in it will be just barely.
Expected points is around 47.
The Houston game definitely cost us a home game.
The Houston game cost MLSE around $4 million dollars.
Plus many more millions in lost ssh money for next season.

michaeltfc91

08-05-2019, 08:16 AM

TFC best case scenario squeak into the playoffs. Midweek vs. NYCFC we will play a B team, that is a loss and @ LAFC is a loss so we have 8 games to get 15 points minimum to reach 47. That means 4 wins 3 ties or 5 wins in 8 games. Probably do need to win 5 and then grab a draw somewhere. Looking at the schedule honestly the next 5 games are all must wins pretty much, I think you need 11 points minimum.

stegosaurus

08-05-2019, 08:28 AM

If we get in it will be just barely.
Expected points is around 47.
The Houston game definitely cost us a home game.
The Houston game cost MLSE around $4 million dollars.
Plus many more millions in lost ssh money for next season.

From which internal accounting documents are you determining these losses?

stevep

08-05-2019, 10:25 AM

From which internal accounting documents are you determining these losses?

one home game

30,000 people at say total spent $133/person on average
includes ticketprices, private boxes, alcohol,food,parking

the $133 figure is debateable
as well is the 30,000 attendance

GerMc

08-05-2019, 11:46 AM

First of all, just making the playoffs is a pretty low bar. I'm not saying it should be 2017 every year, but 2019 is shaping up to be a slightly better 2018, which is kinda sad. I would think that the FO and players would aspire to more than that.

There is no reason that we shouldn't make the playoffs, given the players we have and how we play football..sometimes. But we always seem to make boneheaded coaching moves (Houston starting XI, incomprehensible subs) or the team just seems to lose motivation/fall asleep (2nd half against NYRB and Cinci).

So I think it is 50/50. We could just sleepwalk through the rest of the season and miss the playoffs (which I hope would lead to a coaching change) or we could catch fire and go into the playoffs with some momentum.

I hope for the latter, but fear it will be the former.

Oldtimer

08-05-2019, 05:09 PM

one home game

30,000 people at say total spent $133/person on average
includes ticketprices, private boxes, alcohol,food,parking

the $133 figure is debateable
as well is the 30,000 attendance

TFC only gets a portion of tickets sold, the rest goes to the league revenue pot to pay player salaries.
Parking & food get shared with the city.
Half of the "TFC division" of MLS (like all MLS teams) is owned by the league as a whole, only half of TFCs profits go to MLSE as owner/operator.

So the cost to MLSE is more like $1 million. Still noticeable, but hardly make or break for a billion dollar corporation. The biggest concerns to MLSE will be SSH renewals and getting playoff games (their Bell and Rogers overlords demand playoff content to fill their schedules, which has much higher ratings than regular season games).

stevep

08-05-2019, 08:44 PM

TFC only gets a portion of tickets sold, the rest goes to the league revenue pot to pay player salaries.
Parking & food get shared with the city.
Half of the "TFC division" of MLS (like all MLS teams) is owned by the league as a whole, only half of TFCs profits go to MLSE as owner/operator.

So the cost to MLSE is more like $1 million. Still noticeable, but hardly make or break for a billion dollar corporation. The biggest concerns to MLSE will be SSH renewals and getting playoff games (their Bell and Rogers overlords demand playoff content to fill their schedules, which has much higher ratings than regular season games).
Very interesting.
So would these ratios be the same in regular season games?

Oldtimer

08-05-2019, 09:01 PM

Very interesting.
So would these ratios be the same in regular season games?

Yes. Exceptions are for friendlies (which TFC hasn't done since Manning took over) and for the Canadian Championship and CCL, where the league doesn't take a cut.

stegosaurus

08-05-2019, 11:48 PM

one home game

30,000 people at say total spent $133/person on average
includes ticketprices, private boxes, alcohol,food,parking

the $133 figure is debateable
as well is the 30,000 attendance

Even if these numbers were correct — which they aren’t — it doesn’t really matter.

If MLSE really needed a couple million bucks they could just sell the franchise, which is what is actually valuable, not tickets.

MLS teams are more an investment than a profit centre for pretty much every single owner in any case, banking on an increase in the popularity of the sport in the future until it actually becomes a money-maker.

Plus, if there’s anyone that understands running an underperforming sports franchise and making money off them despite huge salary bills it’s... MLSE (this year’s Raps performance excluded).

BelfastBoy

08-06-2019, 08:17 AM

Schedule is beyond favorable. I hope the league is prioritized over the CC. Qualification for that tournament just hurts the MLS campaign in the long-run.

pfk

08-06-2019, 10:00 AM

TFC currently sit at a 63.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to this site: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html

Getting 18 points would be around a 100% chance of making the playoffs.

I think they can do it, but I think they'll just squeak in the last game.

Canary10

08-06-2019, 10:59 AM

45 and 46 points would get 7th the past two years. If we can't get that Vanney has to go to be honest, so I say yeah, we make the playoffs. Especially with the schedule. I think at this point we should be aiming for 50 points at least though. 6 more wins out of 10.

BeninatoTFC

08-06-2019, 11:39 AM

Schedule is beyond favorable. I hope the league is prioritized over the CC. Qualification for that tournament just hurts the MLS campaign in the long-run.

That’s the only reason why I do think we make it in. The schedule is very lower-tier team friendly. It essentially negates all the road games given the quality of the opponent. If we were going to Portland and LA and Atlanta I’d feel a lot less confident.

ag futbol

08-06-2019, 12:38 PM

I get the slippery feeling we had in 2018 where there are will still plenty of games to play but TFC had essentially zero momentum. Not sure this group can execute the way it needs to to stay above the payoff line. There are more than a few potential pitfalls here.

Let's call the away games against NER, LAFC, and NYCFC difficult to get points. That leaves seven remaining games to chew on. For a team that hasn't won 3 straight this season it sounds like a tall order. Now that said, looking at the table...

(4) DCU - hard to tell. Technically we have a game in hand and their remaining schedule is not too favorable.
(5) NYCFC - too many games in hand, odds are we won't catch them.
(6) Montreal - this might be the weak link... They are just as inconsistent as we are but with a lower ceiling.
(7) New England - in good form, but remaining schedule looks tough...

(9) Orlando - lot of tough games remaining. Doubt they catch us.

I think there is a decent chance we finish 6th or 7th. Now that said, I want to see how we play. It would be easy to crash out of the playoffs in the first round and accomplish nothing in particular.

WestStandGeoff

08-06-2019, 04:50 PM

I went with the "overly optimistic" top 3 finish prediction. I know it's a longshot, but we're frankly not that far off 3rd, and have a relatively favourable schedule to run out the regular season.

OgtheDim

08-08-2019, 06:49 AM

Consider this

The season is over in less then 2 months.

barticusz

08-08-2019, 10:24 AM

stegosaurus

08-08-2019, 06:43 PM

Calen Carr and & Keele had an episode on who’s in or out for playoffs. Interestingly both of them had TFC in the playoffs as they felt their roster was too talented to miss out.

Quite the contrast to our opinions.

I think this is the general consensus here as well though: why is a team with so much talent looking to just scrape into/not make it into the playoffs?

OgtheDim

08-09-2019, 06:49 AM

I think this is the general consensus here as well though: why is a team with so much talent looking to just scrape into/not make it into the playoffs?

Roster development is more art then science - a poor choice thinking Ciman would be Moor here, the non development of a striker in Hamilton there, the boat anchor contract given a defender after a lifetime best year winning a championship - it adds up after awhile.

I also maintain that losing Vasquez & Giovinco in January was unexpected & put this team seriously behind in prep for this season. If we somehow were to get through this season, make the playoffs and keep Vanney, next year would be significantly better out of the gate.

Most importantly though:

This team, from the top on down to us in the stands has never gotten over Delgado's CCL miss.

It haunts us.If we had gone into that game & gotten beaten bad, we would not be in this funk. I'd not change us getting that close for getting beaten bad but we have not handled that miss well.

Until we achieve something (and unfortunately the Voyageur's isn't enough), or turn the squad over or change managers - we will remain in a funk.

stevep

08-09-2019, 08:00 AM

I think this is the general consensus here as well though: why is a team with so much talent looking to just scrape into/not make it into the playoffs?

why, because half the time the star talent is not on the field.
injuries, gold cup, friendlies, rest etc
as well 3 new players just started July 8th, August 10th

MightyDM

08-09-2019, 08:51 AM

Roster development is more art then science - a poor choice thinking Ciman would be Moor here, the non development of a striker in Hamilton there, the boat anchor contract given a defender after a lifetime best year winning a championship - it adds up after awhile.

I also maintain that losing Vasquez & Giovinco in January was unexpected & put this team seriously behind in prep for this season. If we somehow were to get through this season, make the playoffs and keep Vanney, next year would be significantly better out of the gate.

Most importantly though:

This team, from the top on down to us in the stands has never gotten over Delgado's CCL miss.

It haunts us.If we had gone into that game & gotten beaten bad, we would not be in this funk. I'd not change us getting that close for getting beaten bad but we have not handled that miss well.

Until we achieve something (and unfortunately the Voyageur's isn't enough), or turn the squad over or change managers - we will remain in a funk.

Great post. Spot on.

stegosaurus

08-09-2019, 08:54 AM

why, because half the time the star talent is not on the field.
injuries, gold cup, friendlies, rest etc
as well 3 new players just started July 8th, August 10th

It was a rhetorical question.

stevep

08-09-2019, 12:30 PM

It was a rhetorical question.

Oh yeah it was.

TFC1154ever

08-09-2019, 01:50 PM

flatpicker

08-09-2019, 02:45 PM

This team, from the top on down to us in the stands has never gotten over Delgado's CCL miss.

It still keeps me up at night.

Super

08-09-2019, 02:51 PM

I don’t think we’re catching Atlanta or NYCFC. And unless Philly goes on a losing streak, we probably ain’t catching them either. 4th place and a home 1st round matchup is what TFC should be gunning for. For me, that’s realistic.

I agree. Moving forward we need to try to win every game. No more sitting guys. Surely they're professional enough to play the remaining games without 2 week breaks. If we make the play-offs with at least 1 home game I'll definitely support Vanney staying on.