stevep
06-27-2018, 10:36 PM
I was watching some Belgium games in the world cup and in particular I was fascinated by a player named Romelu Lukaku.
Romelu Lukaku is a striker on the Belgian national team.
He reminds a great deal of Jozy Altidore, his physical presence his goal scoring abilities.
I think his salary is close to Jozy's 4.68 million pounds. in usd this is around 6 million USD. again close to Jozy's salary.
where this gets interesting is in the fact that Romelu got injured his last game and is now not playing against England tomorrow.
So I thought to myself what is the impact of a guy like Romelu/Jozy not playing for their team.
So the best way I know of to determine this is looking at the historical betting odds when he was healthy and assumed he was playing vs now that is has been confirmed that he is not playing. Then convert those odds to implied probabilities and then multiply the implied probability of a win by 3 points (mls points per win)
multiply the implied probability of a tie by 1 (mls points for a tie)
so here are the numbers from BET 365
June 23rd Belgium win odds 2.40 = 41.6%
June 27 the Belgium win odds 3.20=31.25%
june 23rd Belgium tie odds 3.3=31.25%
June 27th Belgium tie odds 3.0=33.3%
so (0.41*3)+(0.3125*1)= 1.5625 PPG before Romelu got injured
(0.3125*3)+(0.333*1)= 1.27 PPG after Romelu got injured
for a difference of 0.29 ppg when Romelu plays vs when he is injured
over a 34 game season 34x.29=9.9 points say 10pts per season
this is the difference between possible winning the supporters shield not making the playoffs. say 57pts vs 47pts
this is just one guy, one top notch guy.
when you consider TFC is also missing Mavinga, and Justin Morrow and this number is even greater
Mavinga is arguably the best defender in the MLS and Morrow is arguably the best left back in the MLS
also, this is this the Belgian national team so if Lukaku is out you have the 2nd best striker in Belgium to replace him, who do we have Tois or Hamilton.
so our dropoff is way greater than is Belgiums
also, you lose the greatness of Seba without Jozy
Seba is a mere mortal without Jozy
also our dropoff without Mavinga and Morrow is huge.
this explains everything of why we suck this year in my opinion.
good news Jozy and Mavinga will be back soon.
upon further research I have found out more players other than Lulaku will miss the game vs England.
Martinez had earlier suggested he was prepared to make wholesale changes to his side and at the very least was expected to rest defender Jan Vertonghen, winger Thomas Meunier and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, who have all picked up a yellow card.
De Bruyne is a stud
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2018/england-belgium-QVTybwsd/
Romelu Lukaku is a striker on the Belgian national team.
He reminds a great deal of Jozy Altidore, his physical presence his goal scoring abilities.
I think his salary is close to Jozy's 4.68 million pounds. in usd this is around 6 million USD. again close to Jozy's salary.
where this gets interesting is in the fact that Romelu got injured his last game and is now not playing against England tomorrow.
So I thought to myself what is the impact of a guy like Romelu/Jozy not playing for their team.
So the best way I know of to determine this is looking at the historical betting odds when he was healthy and assumed he was playing vs now that is has been confirmed that he is not playing. Then convert those odds to implied probabilities and then multiply the implied probability of a win by 3 points (mls points per win)
multiply the implied probability of a tie by 1 (mls points for a tie)
so here are the numbers from BET 365
June 23rd Belgium win odds 2.40 = 41.6%
June 27 the Belgium win odds 3.20=31.25%
june 23rd Belgium tie odds 3.3=31.25%
June 27th Belgium tie odds 3.0=33.3%
so (0.41*3)+(0.3125*1)= 1.5625 PPG before Romelu got injured
(0.3125*3)+(0.333*1)= 1.27 PPG after Romelu got injured
for a difference of 0.29 ppg when Romelu plays vs when he is injured
over a 34 game season 34x.29=9.9 points say 10pts per season
this is the difference between possible winning the supporters shield not making the playoffs. say 57pts vs 47pts
this is just one guy, one top notch guy.
when you consider TFC is also missing Mavinga, and Justin Morrow and this number is even greater
Mavinga is arguably the best defender in the MLS and Morrow is arguably the best left back in the MLS
also, this is this the Belgian national team so if Lukaku is out you have the 2nd best striker in Belgium to replace him, who do we have Tois or Hamilton.
so our dropoff is way greater than is Belgiums
also, you lose the greatness of Seba without Jozy
Seba is a mere mortal without Jozy
also our dropoff without Mavinga and Morrow is huge.
this explains everything of why we suck this year in my opinion.
good news Jozy and Mavinga will be back soon.
upon further research I have found out more players other than Lulaku will miss the game vs England.
Martinez had earlier suggested he was prepared to make wholesale changes to his side and at the very least was expected to rest defender Jan Vertonghen, winger Thomas Meunier and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne, who have all picked up a yellow card.
De Bruyne is a stud
http://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/world/world-cup-2018/england-belgium-QVTybwsd/