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ensco
12-20-2017, 10:23 AM
We have major roster construction questions lurking out there. What do you do if you are Manning and Bez?

You have two more years in this setup. Bradley, Altidore and Gio all expire together after 2019, Vazquez is a short term solution too, which means, starting this coming summer, there will be a lot of noise around that.

Gio and Altidore probably won’t age well, given their injury histories.

Vanney may be the lead candidate to be the USMNT coach in a year.

We spend more than anyone, thanks to a departed CEO whose vision was rejected by our board. They have, at a minimum, uncertainty around the direction the board will take on spending when the DP contracts roll off. Winning is not financially rewarded in this league.

You have, today, the best European scouting in the league. (Vazquez, Mavinga, Hasler, in 2017). You have the magic touch bringing guys in. Two of these three guys were younger. Shouldn’t we be harvesting that strength?

Given how TAM works, the structure of better teams is about to change. Atlanta, NYCFC, LAFC and Seattle will have 7-8 guys making 1.0-1.5M each. Do we think our 6th, 7th, 8th guys (say, Delgado, Osorio and Hagglund, for arguments sake) are good enough to be better than these new guys will be? (Guys making $1.5M will be a lot better than Gustav Svensson was)

Do you move a DP next year to create salary room, and maybe get some more TAM?

I wish it wasn’t a talking point, but I don’t see how they aren’t talking about it.

TFC07
12-20-2017, 10:45 AM
Or they will get 3 new DP and continue growing like rest of the league. You can't win in MLS unless you spend money. Not only that, but TFC fan base will shrink if we go back the old ways.

MLSE aren't stupid and their long term goal is to expand BMO field while get more money from TV and sponsors. Next US TV deal is going to make or break MLS since networks will be fighting for it because world cup 2026 will be around the corner.

ManUtd4ever
12-20-2017, 10:56 AM
I have faith in the current management regime. There will be challenges ahead for sure as our core ages, but they have demonstrated repeatedly that they are adept at recruiting top calibre talent. The TAM will benefit our franchise tremendously moving forward.

woolly
12-20-2017, 11:13 AM
It seems the MLS strategy is to buy depth and move away from the DP stars- The MLS 2.0 era when it was important to buy recognition at a premium (Beckham to Pirlo) is over and most fans recognize an over the hill player as a bad signing.

We sit at the conjunction of DP and TAM. We have 4 DP caliber players along with (arguably) 4 non-DP all stars (Bono, Moor, Morrow and Mavinga) with another 2-3 at the top of their class (Beitashour, Zavaleta/Hagglund).

The question will come in 2019 as to whether or not the DP's are worth the money... In my mind, Seba's star is starting to fade a little bit either through injury or getting snubbed by the national team, whereas Jozy has been getting stronger (no hamstring issues this year). The downside risk is that, as we've seen, DP's are a bit of a crapshoot... The wrong chemistry or motivation can really sink the team for a full year or longer.

If I was looking at the long game, I would be looking to move Seba in the long term barring a return to form and moving Vasquez to a DP contract. Then using TAM to replace Moor (retirement) and fill the roster with trial TAM quality players over the next year to make sure there are no gaps and that when 2019 starts we have no bad apples.

ryan
12-20-2017, 11:45 AM
It seems the MLS strategy is to buy depth and move away from the DP stars- The MLS 2.0 era when it was important to buy recognition at a premium (Beckham to Pirlo) is over and most fans recognize an over the hill player as a bad signing.

We sit at the conjunction of DP and TAM. We have 4 DP caliber players along with (arguably) 4 non-DP all stars (Bono, Moor, Morrow and Mavinga) with another 2-3 at the top of their class (Beitashour, Zavaleta/Hagglund).

The question will come in 2019 as to whether or not the DP's are worth the money... In my mind, Seba's star is starting to fade a little bit either through injury or getting snubbed by the national team, whereas Jozy has been getting stronger (no hamstring issues this year). The downside risk is that, as we've seen, DP's are a bit of a crapshoot... The wrong chemistry or motivation can really sink the team for a full year or longer.

If I was looking at the long game, I would be looking to move Seba in the long term barring a return to form and moving Vasquez to a DP contract. Then using TAM to replace Moor (retirement) and fill the roster with trial TAM quality players over the next year to make sure there are no gaps and that when 2019 starts we have no bad apples.


Not so sure I agree with this. I think it's just become important that you can't just get DP's to carry you, you need to support them to succeed. Skilled players don't mesh well with guys who stumble over the ball or fail to make runs, it's painful to watch.

As long as Seba is putting in free kicks that gives us an immense edge over the entire league. That alone has won us so many points in games that would have been drawn/lost. I'd also argue that he was instrumental and just as much of a star in the MLS playoffs. His FK vs NYRB was the difference. He assisted/setup all 3 goals vs CLB/SEA, almost had 2 goals himself vs SEA. Not sure how that means his star is fading, he's just being focused on by opposition and is now contributing in other ways.

Vazquez only needs to move to DP if his salary is going to exceed 1.5M and he's currently only on 700K. Is he really going to demand TFC move one of those 3 so he can make more than that? After his favourite year as a professional? Not seeing it. I think he takes a raise but he's not going to break the roster up. It'll cost us more TAM going forward but he won't move to DP level I don't think.

Lastly I'd say Zavaleta/Hagglund/Mavinga could be our starting 3 in the 3-5-2. We need another body for rotation but they are more than capable of being our central defence post-Moor.

Ajax TFC
12-20-2017, 12:36 PM
I think Bradley and Jozy will be here another 4 seasons. Seba 2 seasons. Hard to predict how to rebuild the roster when that time comes when we have no idea what MLS roster rules will be in four years. Consider that four years previous, we were offloading Laba because we couldn't fit him in with three new DPs. Five years ago, we were selling draft picks for any scrap of allocation money we could because a couple 300k salaries had us over budget. In another four years, it could be that the top 11 players on the roster are making money that would have been over the DP threshold a few years ago. And how do you plan for that when no one know what the league is going to do? In years previous, our FO has made signings in anticipation of rule changes everyone thought were coming, and then looked foolish having to release DPs when the rule changes ended up not coming in time. I think the best you can do is have a good scouting network set up and efficiently use the resources that come available each season.

Honestly, the biggest loss will be when Bradley retires. It will be extremely difficult to replace his leadership on and off the field. I'm quite sure we would not be where we are today (treble and best team in league history) without him, even if we still had Seba and Jozy.

TFC Tifoso
12-20-2017, 12:49 PM
We spend more than anyone, thanks to a departed CEO whose vision was rejected by our board. They have, at a minimum, uncertainty around the direction the board will take on spending when the DP contracts roll off. Winning is not financially rewarded in this league.

not necessarily by the league administration, but in a gate-driven league like this, winning is certainly rewarded imo in terms of butts in seats.

Having MLSE seen all sides of it now, through the "shitty team, stadium full" early years, to the "shitty team, stadium empty" years, to the current "best team, full stadium, great atmosphere" status, I'd at least like to think that they're smart enough to know now that moving forward, the team will need to do well to keep interest. Once that is acknowledged, its really up to them.

Of course, as supporters of the team, we all know which direction we'd like to see them continue in.....

jabbronies
12-20-2017, 01:39 PM
keeping in mind trying to replace a player for an exact replica is impossible and you will probably fail trying to do so

Replacing Vasquez - You'd hope that Jay Chapman develops into a decent MLS starter. He won't have that Barca day-to-day training, but he's got Vasquez to instil in him some pretty solid soccer knowledge and thinking. Enough to allow him to see the field differently and have that edge up over other players in the league. He knows how to exploit the tinniest of weaknesses in opponents defences and he can figure it out in minutes.

Replacing Altidore - obvious candidate is Hamilton. Hopefully he can beef up and learn the game from Altidore. He'll never have that killer drive that Altidore has, but in terms of style of play, he's as close to it as we have. Without Altidore we lose that energy and drive to just bowl over the competition to get what you want. It's a very LeBron approach to the game.

Replacing Bradley - The thing that makes Bradley so valuable is leadership. The guy is a winner. He knows what needs to be done in order to win. If you got the skills, he can get you to use it. if you don't have the skills, he'll get you to use something else. He's all over the field - helping everyone succeed. Replacing him will be extremely difficult cos it's not just a position - it's everything else that we would need.

Replacing Giovinco - I'm not diminishing his accomplishments, but I think this would be the easiest of the 4 to replace. Easy meaning, you are really just looking for the best player that fits in and is willing to come to the team. Just find a guy who has a track record of scoring - has that killer instinct for goal - obviously easier said than done

Replacing Moor - Defensive generals are very hard to find. Nick Hagglund could be the guy to do it. But I haven't really seen him burst out of his shell in that aspect. His game is good - I just don't know if his man management skills are up there with the best. Drew Moor really is one of the best. He's lead 3 defensive lines to MLS Cup Finals - He even won a championship with Marvel "I like to run" Wynne by his side

ensco
12-20-2017, 01:44 PM
I look at what Seattle and Portland spend and I wonder what suits must think.

All those of you who think we will just spend the TAM.... we are the champions, we have a bunch of guys getting raises/bonuses. Manning would have to argue for a payroll that is something like $27M, to just keep everyone and spend the TAM.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/551693/player-expenses-of-mls-teams/

One of the possible lessons of 2017 for the suits is that a team with one third the payroll of ours came within an 87th minute whisker of beating us in the conference final.

I think what has happened with NYRB doesn't get enough press. They have totally changed course.

(I swear, I am a bit spooked by the MLS Cup trophy ceremony. If our ownership "understood" soccer, it would never have been Larry Tanenbaum accepting that Cup.)

reggie
12-20-2017, 01:56 PM
25 to 30 mil is a drop in the bucket for MLSE.they will always be in the top 3 in payroll.it jus about finding the right replacements and i think they can cut the dp payroll by 5 to 6 mil and still have quality.

ensco
12-20-2017, 02:00 PM
25 to 30 mil is a drop in the bucket for MLSE.

We disagree about how rich guys think.

jabbronies
12-20-2017, 02:12 PM
I look at what Seattle and Portland spend and I wonder what suits must think.

All those of you who think we will just spend the TAM.... we are the champions, we have a bunch of guys getting raises/bonuses. Manning would have to argue for a payroll that is something like $27M, to just keep everyone and spend the TAM.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/551693/player-expenses-of-mls-teams/

One of the possible lessons of 2017 for the suits is that a team with one third the payroll of ours came within an 87th minute whisker of beating us in the conference final.

I think what has happened with NYRB doesn't get enough press. They have totally changed course.

(I swear, I am a bit spooked by the MLS Cup trophy ceremony. If our ownership "understood" soccer, it would never have been Larry Tanenbaum accepting that Cup.)

But they didn't beat us. And we won three trophies and will be playing in the CCL.
From what I'm reading from your post - all of that doesn't equal more money payout than a team that won zero trophies and isn't playing in CCL?

ensco
12-20-2017, 02:37 PM
But they didn't beat us. And we won three trophies and will be playing in the CCL.
From what I'm reading from your post - all of that doesn't equal more money payout than a team that won zero trophies and isn't playing in CCL?

Seattle and Portland, the last two winners, won MLS Cup with half our payroll.

There are a number of pretty good teams in the $7-10M area. This range for these teams will go up, but only to around $9-12M, based on new TAM.

It's not just Scrooge McDuck who might look at an ask to go from $22M to $27M and say: “Are you kidding me?”

jabbronies
12-20-2017, 03:37 PM
Seattle and Portland, the last two winners, won MLS Cup with half our payroll.

There are a number of pretty good teams in the $7-10M area. This range for these teams will go up, but only to around $9-12M, based on new TAM.

It's not just Scrooge McDuck who might look at an ask to go from $22M to $27M and say: “Are you kidding me?”

Atlanta is the only good team in the $7-10M range
If we were in the West - then maybe you could argue that we could "compete" with that range of salary.

You could argue we overpaid by about $5million on Jozy and Bradley together. So can you say that the next time around we don't pay as much and still get the same return? Keeping in mind it's more than just stats that won us this cup.

Then there are players here and there where you could get cheaper alternatives - maybe even pay a guy to replace Seba for like...a couple million less - and maybe we end up with a team salary of about $15 - $16 Million

i think in order to be competitive on the level that TFC has been - that is the minimum price you need to be willing to spend.
Don't forget they didn't just win everything - they are the best team ever in MLS. That is what they paid for. I just don't know how financially successful that is.
What is the return on 22M and can we realistically get that with a lower salary.

ag futbol
12-20-2017, 03:43 PM
Given how TAM works, the structure of better teams is about to change. Atlanta, NYCFC, LAFC and Seattle will have 7-8 guys making 1.0-1.5M each. Do we think our 6th, 7th, 8th guys (say, Delgado, Osorio and Hagglund, for arguments sake) are good enough to be better than these new guys will be? (Guys making $1.5M will be a lot better than Gustav Svensson was)

I think it's going to take a while before teams get maximum value out of that extra cash. NYCFC for example has no problems spending money but falls short when it comes to get value for the $. Surprisingly (given the history of this franchise), I'd say we're ahead of other teams when it comes to scouting. I suspect this "era" of spending, the TFC roster, whatever, goes until the end of the 2019 season. At that point all the issues you mentioned get forced. We may inevitably be sold a "rebuilding" story when the nature of this sport is you can essentially re-load whenever you want.

Anyway, I'm not worried about ownership getting tight fisted with spending just yet. Once 2019 is over we will see.

jabbronies
12-20-2017, 04:35 PM
I think it's going to take a while before teams get maximum value out of that extra cash. NYCFC for example has no problems spending money but falls short when it comes to get value for the $. Surprisingly (given the history of this franchise), I'd say we're ahead of other teams when it comes to scouting. I suspect this "era" of spending, the TFC roster, whatever, goes until the end of the 2019 season. At that point all the issues you mentioned get forced. We may inevitably be sold a "rebuilding" story when the nature of this sport is you can essentially re-load whenever you want.

Anyway, I'm not worried about ownership getting tight fisted with spending just yet. Once 2019 is over we will see.


Why does a rebuild need to happen? If you have players coming out of your academy at a decent pace, you are constantly signing and upgrading mid-level talent in order to keep those positions competitive, and then targeting your DP's early on (1-2 years out) - why do you even need a rebuild?

This isn't MLB or the NHL or the NBA - The talent pool is a lot bigger than those other sports. There's no reason why we need to be scraping a team together for 2-3 years before we are competitive again.

ensco
12-20-2017, 04:39 PM
^The lesson of 2014-2017 is that it takes quite a while for an all-at-once rebuild to gel. Even when you use a monster amount of dough to do it. Nobody saw us as an elite team going into the 2016 playoffs. That isn't that long ago.

Now that we are an elite team, the question is, how do you stay there, when you are losing money, and paying so much more for players?

Elite teams are continually transitioning guys, so that the overall rate of change is constant, it never varies that much.

They are also (gulp) moving and selling players.

trane
12-20-2017, 05:42 PM
I think the TAM is the way to go forward, but you do not replace our big four until the contract is up, unless you can replace them. You go as is plus additions for at least another season and see how far you can get.

jabbronies
12-20-2017, 06:07 PM
^The lesson of 2014-2017 is that it takes quite a while for an all-at-once rebuild to gel. Even when you use a monster amount of dough to do it. Nobody saw us as an elite team going into the 2016 playoffs. That isn't that long ago. .

This is why I don't see a rebuild happening. We needed to do it because we got ourselves into a shit hole and couldn't get out of it.



Now that we are an elite team, the question is, how do you stay there, when you are losing money, and paying so much more for players?
Are we losing money? Between ticket and suite/box sales, TV rights, Merch sales, concessions, sponsorships?



Elite teams are continually transitioning guys, so that the overall rate of change is constant, it never varies that much.
They are also (gulp) moving and selling players.

That is what we have to do.

Bringing in Hasler was a move for the future and a move that we need to do more of. Bring in a guy 1-3 seasons early to eventually take over another players role.
That's how the Bono situation panned out; it's what we'll need to do for Moors replacement if Hagglund doesn't pan out by this June.
You only get older replacements if you are in a bind and need to buy time to find that right Core player.
Going this route also hopefully keeps your cost down - If Hasler replaces Beita this year - we're gonna save 100K in salary when it's all said and done. Do that in 2-3 positions and you've got a few hundred grand saved in cap space for a couple years.

OgtheDim
12-20-2017, 06:34 PM
The increase in TAM which is basically allocated by the team from within their own resources, indicates to me that spending is what owners want to do.

Richard
12-20-2017, 06:45 PM
The golden goose is back from the dead!

There is no way MLSE will mess with that when soccer is the long term sport to investment in North America.

ensco
12-20-2017, 06:47 PM
The golden goose is back from the dead!

There is no way MLSE will mess with that when soccer is the long term sport to investment in North America.

This is the right way for ownership to think about it.

I question whether that will happen. I hope it does.

Globetrotter
12-20-2017, 06:55 PM
We have this year, 2018, and 2019 to see what it looks like from other teams spending 1-2M on players vs bringing in 5M+ players. (of course it wont be a last minute decision before training camp 2020 on what we do, but we can sit back for time to watch and prepare for future signings).

JuliquE
12-20-2017, 06:57 PM
One of the possible lessons of 2017 for the suits is that a team with one third the payroll of ours came within an 87th minute whisker of beating us in the conference final.
… and are on the brink of folding, don't forget.

MLSE's seen the dark years, and should know better.



(I swear, I am a bit spooked by the MLS Cup trophy ceremony. If our ownership "understood" soccer, it would never have been Larry Tanenbaum accepting that Cup.)
Not a fan of some of his moves, myself… but, after investing millions into something, surely his inclusion isn't asking too much. My two cents, anyway.



I think Bradley and Jozy will be here another 4 seasons. Seba 2 seasons. Hard to predict how to rebuild the roster when that time comes when we have no idea what MLS roster rules will be in four years. Consider that four years previous, we were offloading Laba because we couldn't fit him in with three new DPs. Five years ago, we were selling draft picks for any scrap of allocation money we could because a couple 300k salaries had us over budget. In another four years, it could be that the top 11 players on the roster are making money that would have been over the DP threshold a few years ago. And how do you plan for that when no one know what the league is going to do? In years previous, our FO has made signings in anticipation of rule changes everyone thought were coming, and then looked foolish having to release DPs when the rule changes ended up not coming in time. I think the best you can do is have a good scouting network set up and efficiently use the resources that come available each season.

Honestly, the biggest loss will be when Bradley retires. It will be extremely difficult to replace his leadership on and off the field. I'm quite sure we would not be where we are today (treble and best team in league history) without him, even if we still had Seba and Jozy.
Tend to agree; next to impossible to plan too elaborately for the long term.

OgtheDim
12-20-2017, 07:06 PM
The league mandates that an owner get the cup first. That the Christmas Tree Builder raised it first is all meh to me. He gave it right to Bradley - other owners have walked it back to the team on a stage.

ensco
12-20-2017, 07:15 PM
The league mandates that an owner get the cup first. That the Christmas Tree Builder raised it first is all meh to me. He gave it right to Bradley - other owners have walked it back to the team on a stage.

I looked for this but couldn’t find. Do you have a source?

Ultra & Proud
12-20-2017, 07:36 PM
The payroll of TFC isn't a worry and it isn't going to drop suddenly because the ownership group doesn't want to pay $22-$27M. Ibaka almost makes that for the Raptors and does nearly nothing. Wait if they buy the Jays. Then they'll get to pay Martin & Tulowitzki that for years while contributing zero as well.

When MLS salaries become like Europe's then I will wonder but not until then.

Richard
12-20-2017, 07:52 PM
I looked for this but couldn’t find. Do you have a source?

I think in some way David Miller should have been honoured, lets not forget he played a part in getting Toronto a soccer team and he is a huge fan.

Oldtimer
12-20-2017, 09:09 PM
I looked for this but couldn’t find. Do you have a source?

I too recall this being brought up in the past with other winners. It's probably on Big Soccer somewhere.

Oldtimer
12-20-2017, 09:21 PM
This is the right way for ownership to think about it.

I question whether that will happen. I hope it does.

I think they are thinking about it the right way, although I get why anyone would be affected by the past. The days of Tom Anselmi and Teachers Pension Plan owning MLSE only for return on equity are long over, though. This group wants to win. Proof is that they are willing to shell out millions more to fund the discretionary TAM instead of just cashing in on the team's success.

backbeat
12-20-2017, 11:56 PM
This is the right way for ownership to think about it.

I question whether that will happen. I hope it does.


Manning's interview with Totera suggests that TFC will spend the TAM - i hope so but we'll see soon enough

ag futbol
12-21-2017, 12:19 AM
Why does a rebuild need to happen? If you have players coming out of your academy at a decent pace, you are constantly signing and upgrading mid-level talent in order to keep those positions competitive, and then targeting your DP's early on (1-2 years out) - why do you even need a rebuild?

This isn't MLB or the NHL or the NBA - The talent pool is a lot bigger than those other sports. There's no reason why we need to be scraping a team together for 2-3 years before we are competitive again.
We shall see. The first “huge” signing we pinned our hopes on ended up being not the right fit. Bradley’s shoes will be hard to fill.

Auzzy
12-21-2017, 02:37 AM
I looked for this but couldn’t find. Do you have a source?

RE owner getting handed the MLS cup first: for example see at 3:25 of last year's highlight video:
https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2016-12-10-toronto-fc-vs-seattle-sounders-fc/recap


RE the long game: even if they decide to cut the payroll a bit in the coming years, I'm not worried. For the first time I feel they will have a plan for what comes next, for example after our DP's current contracts expire.

Most of TFC's excess salary compared with other MLS teams is due to our three DPs. I'm very happy with the DPs overall, and they were exactly what we needed to get us out of the depths of despair when they got here a few years ago (with Altidore essentially being a face-saving measure after Defoe decamped). They've been amazing.

But honestly, when you see what Vazquez and others have contributed, TFC could surely find some other great DPs in the future in the $2-4 million range if they want. At the same time improving the team with extra TAM going to more players, and still cutting their overall wage bill (again if that's what they want).

TFC had goals scored by 16 different players this season; I believe that's another MLS record. Clearly they've got great depth and aren't overly dependent on the DPs. We're no one-pony trick.

We've had some great luck with European signings as mentioned, but I still hope they tap more into the South & Central American player pipeline in the future.

Detroit_TFC
12-21-2017, 10:18 AM
Been thinking about this issue on and off for a while. I guess sometimes due to injury it is forced on a FO, but this must be an extraordinarily complex process to consciously manage, knowing when to wind down a valued component of the team that you spent years putting together. I don't envy Bez and Vanney this task.