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OgtheDim
09-26-2015, 06:30 PM
6


It might surprise a few people, but in theory we could be guaranteed to be in the playoffs by next Saturday after the Montreal game against Orlando.

Here's how it can happen:

NYCFC loses to Vancouver tonight or to DCU next Friday.

We beat Philly.

Montreal beats Orlando


None of those are guaranteed of course but that's what the potential sits at. The most important thing is, we must beat Philly.


A win against Philly means Philly can't catch us. And, remember, Orlando plays NYCFC once more.



The Tie Breaking Rules



Total number of wins
Goal Differential (GD)
Goals For (GF)
Fewest Disciplinary Points
Road Goals Differential
Road Goal For
Home Goals Differential
Home Goal For
Coin Toss (2 clubs) or Drawing of Lots (3 or more)



All of Orlando Philly and New York have to win out to tie us on wins. Any tie by them and the tiebreaker will fall to us.

flatpicker
09-26-2015, 08:41 PM
Ugh... math...

Ivy
09-27-2015, 12:18 AM
Duane posted a funny number also...
TFC is as many points away from the Shield as they are from being out of the playoffs.

ensco
09-27-2015, 07:28 AM
East is tightening up across the board. DCU in a tail spin. Both TFC and Montreal now have a legit shot at 4th or better.

ManUtd4ever
09-27-2015, 08:57 AM
The East is still wide open. A lot can change over the final few games. I've never seen it this tight in the standings from 1st to 6th.

OgtheDim
09-27-2015, 09:52 AM
As Larson pointed out:


the magic number is 4. Because of the tie breakers.

michaeltfc91
09-27-2015, 09:59 AM
As Larson pointed out:


the magic number is 4. Because of the tie breakers.

Technically it's 5. Because if we get 4 ties and Orlando goes 3-0-0 and win by a combined 12 goals they advance on goal difference as they tie our win total.

Regardless I don't think we even want to clinch next weekend. Don't we want NYC to beat dc and want Orlando to beat Mtl so that we can move into top 4 with a win? We should trust ourselves more and hope NYC and Orlando beat the teams around us. Then again if that happens and we lose vs. Phili it's going to be badddddd. It depends what you want. I want top 4 in the east and top 10 in Mls. That is success to me

Joe Kool
09-27-2015, 10:54 AM
All I know is the second we clinch the playoffs, if we do that is, the renewal note will hit our email inboxes the next day.

ensco
09-27-2015, 11:00 AM
We've blasted through our single season points record. I think the 39 points we got in 2009 (in 30 games) was the previous best.

Yay.

ensco
09-27-2015, 11:01 AM
The odds the we will play the Impact in the playoff knockout game are not small.....

akoto
09-27-2015, 11:09 AM
The way they have been playing lately, I really hope we don't.

Pint
09-27-2015, 11:54 AM
I've looked at it and if:

We win... then all we need is for orlando and NYC not to pick up full points

We draw... then need to lose

ensco
09-27-2015, 12:29 PM
We should re-title this the playoff thread.

We're still 60% likely to make it even if we lose all 4 remaining games. A win Saturday takes that to 97%.

What's interesting is the fairly even distribution of outcomes around where we will finish. There is pretty much an equal chance that we will finish anywhere between second and sixth.

If we win 3 of the 4 games, there is a 67% chance that we finish second.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html

Initial B
09-28-2015, 07:14 AM
We should re-title this the playoff thread.
Don't jinx it!!!

ensco
09-28-2015, 07:22 AM
Don't jinx it!!!

We are going to make it.

What I actually care about it is finishing strong. These next 4 games will determine everything.

Have we turned a corner, or not?

Edging into an expanded playoffs because we rode Gio's coattails, and nothing else, is not satisfying.

For us or for Gio.

ManUtd4ever
09-28-2015, 07:54 AM
We have the weakest goalkeeping of all the teams projected to make the playoffs in the East. That is the primary reason that I'm not particularly confident in our chances to advance assuming we qualify.

Joe Kool
09-28-2015, 08:16 AM
It would suck if we do make the playoffs if we just get blown out the first round. It would just gives TFC a reason to jack up our season ticket prices as they would look at making the playoffs, even if we get blown out, as major success and a reason to hike prices. I am going to stay optimistic though. I never thought we would have made it as far in the CCL back when we beat LA out to make it to the CCL semi-finals so I guess we have a chance with a little luck of hanging around a bit in the playoffs. Our goalkeeping situation and sudden momentary defensive breakdowns are scary though. If get some luck there our offense should be able to handle the rest.

Fort York Redcoat
09-28-2015, 08:52 AM
Don't jinx it!!!

I knew it! You're one of those that allow negative prediction to rule so as to avoid the positive jinx! Aren't you afraid of the DOUBLE jinx??? When your prediction of failure comes true?

Oh wait. The double jinx is just pessimism...g:D

(All said in good fun, B)

ChrisFizik
09-28-2015, 09:22 AM
haha, should I add some code to the board to remove all mentions of the P-word? hahaha (just might)

Chevy
09-28-2015, 12:52 PM
Took a look at the remaining games today for the top six clubs and here are my thoughts on the p****** matchups:

1. NYRB (1st round bye)
2. NE (1st round bye)
3. DC
4. TFC
5. Piss Stains
6. MONTREAL

So...DC home to Montreal and TFC home to Columbus in the first round.

Fort York Redcoat
09-28-2015, 01:30 PM
p******

Godamnit Fizik it took me half the day trying to figure out what expletive is that long. Ridiculous.:smilielol5:

molenshtain
09-28-2015, 01:44 PM
We have the weakest goalkeeping of all the teams projected to make the p******s in the East. That is the primary reason that I'm not particularly confident in our chances to advance assuming we qualify.

The Galaxy won the cup with Josh Saunders in net. It's not that big of a deal.

J-Man
09-28-2015, 04:28 PM
What day would the first round start for the p......s

molenshtain
09-28-2015, 06:02 PM
What day would the first round start for the p......s

wednesday the 28th is the day of the one off games I believe. Then The first round of home and away's starts that weekend.

Ultra & Proud
09-28-2015, 06:34 PM
The Galaxy won the cup with Josh Saunders in net. It's not that big of a deal.
People keep saying that but Saunders burned us a few times this year and as 'bad' as he may be, he is still better and more proven than any of ours.

And if you think the GK spot is no big deal, see what happens in the p******s when the opponents are gifted a minimum of a goal per match. When it's tight, it matters and I expect it tight because teams are going to press the living fuck out of us.

ChrisFizik
09-28-2015, 08:25 PM
p******

Godamnit Fizik it took me half the day trying to figure out what expletive is that long. Ridiculous.:smilielol5:


lol! couldn't resist.

Yes that's right everyone - *Superstition anti-jinx mode has been activated*

spe18
09-29-2015, 08:14 PM
Well, Toronto FC`s p******s clinching scenarios have been posted on mlssoccer.com!!!!!!!

Toronto FC will clinch a berth in the p******s if ...



Toronto FC win vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
Orlando City SC lose or tie vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

OR


Toronto FC tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
Orlando City SC lose vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday


http://www.mlssoccer.com/p******-scenarios

FRANKIE65
09-30-2015, 07:33 AM
Well, Toronto FC`s p******s clinching scenarios have been posted on mlssoccer.com!!!!!!!

Toronto FC will clinch a berth in the p******s if ...



Toronto FC win vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
Orlando City SC lose or tie vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday

OR


Toronto FC tie vs. Philadelphia Union on Saturday AND
Orlando City SC lose vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
New York City FC lose or tie vs. D.C. United on Friday


http://www.mlssoccer.com/p******-scenarios


I'll take the TFC win, and draws in the other two games please!!! The Reds clinch plus the Impact get slowed down a bit. That team has been on a freakin' tear since Drogba showed up.

Fort York Redcoat
09-30-2015, 07:38 AM
http://www.sportsvuesoccer.com/images/upload/garber-don0303_2880.jpg

P******s attention...WORKS. Just like MLS.

ensco
10-04-2015, 09:30 AM
So: how much does seeding matter? I think a lot.

Breakdown below of the team's record by conference, and rank in the east.

1) We are where we are because we are 8-0 against Philly, Orlando and Montreal (pre-Drogba). To be fair, Orlando are a better than .500 team away from TFC, our domination of them is not about beating up on an expansion team.
2) We have been hopeless on the road against better teams (2-7-1 if you strip out non-p***** teams in the east, 1-7-1 since opening day)


East p****** teams: (3-3-3 overall, 1-2-1 at BMO)
Columbus 0-1-1
Montreal 2-0
DCU 1-0-1
New England 0-2-1
NYRB 0-1

East Non-p****** teams: (7-3-1 overall, 5-1 at BMO)
Orlando 3-0
Philadelphia 3-0
Chicago 1-1
NYCFC 0-2-1

West: (4-6, 3-2 at BMO)
Vancouver 1-0
RSL 0-1
Dallas 0-1
Houston 0-1
Portland 1-0
SJ 1-0
LA 0-1
SKC 0-1
Seattle 0-1
Colorado 1-0

flatpicker
10-04-2015, 09:58 AM
It's critical that we move up in the standings and earn a home game. That said, I do hope we avoid Montreal in a possible p*****f matchup. That Drogba guy worries me at the moment.

Ivy
10-04-2015, 10:40 AM
It's critical that we move up in the standings and earn a home game. That said, I do hope we avoid Montreal in a possible p*****f matchup. That Drogba guy worries me at the moment.
He had a nice assist last night lmfao.

DinamoTFC
10-04-2015, 10:45 AM
It's critical that we move up in the standings and earn a home game. That said, I do hope we avoid Montreal in a possible p*****f matchup. That Drogba guy worries me at the moment.

Drogba is such a huge difference maker. Without him I would take Montreal as an opponent in a heart beat in the p******s. Against him not so much. Last game of the season against him will be an interesting match.

Cuppy
10-04-2015, 02:04 PM
A little nervous with TFC just having to pick up 1 point to clinch a p.....f berth. Losing our 3 DP's against NY as well columbus and montreal are not going to be easy tasks. Even with Orlando having to play NYFC and Philly they should get through these so relying on them to lose or draw maybe not an option here. Oh the trials and tribulations of being a TFC fan

ensco
10-04-2015, 02:11 PM
A little nervous with TFC just having to pick up 1 point to clinch a p.....f berth. Losing our 3 DP's against NY as well columbus and montreal are not going to be easy tasks. Even with Orlando having to play NYFC and Philly they should get through these so relying on them to lose or draw maybe not an option here. Oh the trials and tribulations of being a TFC fan

Relax. Odds of TFC losing all 3 games, while Orlando wins both of theirs, are probably something like 50-1.

We're in. But I'm not really celebrating unless we are 4th or better. Which we control.

If this team wants p******s at BMO, they have to go out and get it, now.

anto7
10-04-2015, 06:53 PM
Can you believe that if we beat NYRB on the 14th we move up to 2nd place and control our own destiny !!

anto7
10-04-2015, 06:55 PM
Can you believe that if we beat NYRB on the 14th we move up to 2nd place and control our own destiny !!

And Columbus plays DC last game of the season so one or both teams will be dropping points for certain

flatpicker
10-04-2015, 09:39 PM
Can you believe that if we beat NYRB on the 14th we move up to 2nd place and control our own destiny !!

It's gonna take one all-mighty effort to get those 3 points. But it would be such sweet redemption for those of us who had to witness that 5-0 defeat a few years back when a potential p*****f spot was within reach.

Detroit_TFC
10-05-2015, 08:24 AM
I'd say it's more likely Orlando will win their last two games than not (home vs NYC and away at Philly). That would put them on 47 with less wins than TFC which is the first tiebreaker. TFC has to get at least a point from the remaining home games. There is no way I want TFC going into MTL needing a result.

So, which is more important: play for the draw vs RBNY and lock it down, or go for a win in the hopes of moving up the table?

FRANKIE65
10-05-2015, 09:41 AM
Can you believe that if we beat NYRB on the 14th we move up to 2nd place and control our own destiny !!


I still can't believe just a draw would put the squad in 3rd!!!!

ensco
10-05-2015, 10:32 AM
I'm not worried about anything, I love this!

I'd say these two games feel like the right test for TFC.

Either they can get results against better teams when it matters, or they cannot.

Phil
10-05-2015, 10:41 AM
I'm not worried about anything, I love this!

I'd say these two games feel like the right test for TFC.

Either they can get results against better teams when it matters, or they cannot.

This right here. For all the gum flap by the media and everyone, it comes down to them actually proving it against some good teams. That is the ultimate test.

ensco
10-05-2015, 08:39 PM
P****** schedule is out. After wild card, all games on Sunday, back-to-back-to-back-to-back

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2015/10/03/national-broadcast-schedule-released-audi-2015-mls-cup-p******s

Bristolred
10-05-2015, 08:41 PM
P****** schedule is out. After wild card, all games on Sunday, back-to-back-to-back-to-back

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2015/10/03/national-broadcast-schedule-released-audi-2015-mls-cup-p******s

You will physically have to change the **** in the final word there to get the page. Haha

MightyDM
10-05-2015, 08:58 PM
P****** schedule is out. After wild card, all games on Sunday, back-to-back-to-back-to-back

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2015/10/03/national-broadcast-schedule-released-audi-2015-mls-cup-p******s

When you cluck on that link its rather similar to what the limp act supporters had in a TIFO last year....

ag futbol
10-05-2015, 09:13 PM
Other things on the MLS website right now: Simon Borg re-officiating the weekend games.

Not only lame, but extremely stupid considering he has no idea what he's talking about.

OgtheDim
10-06-2015, 05:55 AM
Other things on the MLS website right now: Simon Borg re-officiating the weekend games.

Not only lame, but extremely stupid considering he has no idea what he's talking about.

He's been doing that for years. I'm trying to imagine skysports doing that weekly for the EPL.

ryan
10-06-2015, 10:15 AM
P****** schedule is out. After wild card, all games on Sunday, back-to-back-to-back-to-back

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2015/10/03/national-broadcast-schedule-released-audi-2015-mls-cup-p******s

Not sure why they want to compete with the NFL during the mid season, but so be it. I get back from vacation on the 1st at noon so other than a wildcard game (we better win), I aint missing shit. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

OgtheDim
10-06-2015, 10:32 AM
Not sure why they want to compete with the NFL during the mid season, but so be it. ...

Believe it or not, the bigger competitor is actually College football.

Pint
10-06-2015, 10:33 AM
Not sure why they want to compete with the NFL during the mid season, but so be it. I get back from vacation on the 1st at noon so other than a wildcard game (we better win), I aint missing shit. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

My guess is they want to miss college football and for the canadian teams HNIC. Although if we end up with TFC vs impact home and away, not having that game at 415 on a Saturday (leading into HNIC) is a huge fail by the league.

jazzy
10-06-2015, 11:26 AM
Relax. Odds of TFC losing all 3 games, while Orlando wins both of theirs, are probably something like 50-1.

We're in. But I'm not really celebrating unless we are 4th or better. Which we control.

If this team wants p******s at BMO, they have to go out and get it, now.

I feel you're right , but Orlando plays Philly and NYFC , dicey , we will be up against it with Columbus and (NYRB is a disaster) without our full team . Then Montreal....whoo hoo if Gio manages to play that game , averting his final accumulated yellow , Game on . BTW who stops Drogba in the box ? ......for me there's quite a bit of tension in these final games . Full team no problem , but that isn't going to happen .

ensco
10-06-2015, 11:29 AM
This Sunday thing is pretty goofy, there are MLS hardcore watchers who vastly preferred the two games Saturday, two games Sunday format. College Football is big, but has nowhere near the level of casual watching interest the NFL has. So why do this? It seems insane.

I think they are trying to stay away from the EPL, given that US rights for that are a SUM property, and that drove them to Sunday afternoon/evening.

But the going head to head with the NFL, wow .... it's like they are giving up re the national TV market in the US

jazzy
10-06-2015, 11:30 AM
I'd say it's more likely Orlando will win their last two games than not (home vs NYC and away at Philly). That would put them on 47 with less wins than TFC which is the first tiebreaker. TFC has to get at least a point from the remaining home games. There is no way I want TFC going into MTL needing a result.

So, which is more important: play for the draw vs RBNY and lock it down, or go for a win in the hopes of moving up the table?

I don't think we have the team to play for a draw , we have to try and win it .........and .......if that happens Vanney is a much better MGR than I previously acknowledged .

ensco
10-06-2015, 11:31 AM
I feel you're right , but Orlando plays Philly and NYFC , dicey , we will be up against it with Columbus and (NYRB is a disaster) without our full team . Then Montreal....whoo hoo if Gio manages to play that game , averting his final accumulated yellow , Game on . BTW who stops Drogba in the box ? ......for me there's quite a bit of tension in these final games . Full team no problem , but that isn't going to happen .

Gotta play well in all three games to get home games here.

Playing meaningful games in October, baby.

Detroit_TFC
10-06-2015, 12:24 PM
This Sunday thing is pretty goofy, there are MLS hardcore watchers who vastly preferred the two games Saturday, two games Sunday format. College Football is big, but has nowhere near the level of casual watching interest the NFL has. So why do this? It seems insane.

I think they are trying to stay away from the EPL, given that US rights for that are a SUM property, and that drove them to Sunday afternoon/evening.

But the going head to head with the NFL, wow .... it's like they are giving up re the national TV market in the US

It's the national broadcast window that they've used all season, Fox and ESPN has already set those aside and so that's what they are using. But yes, those games are going to get wrecked in the ratings.

GonfiaLaRete
10-06-2015, 12:32 PM
I don't like the way this is lined up when you break it down game per game. Orlando has easy games and I am really hoping they drop points because I don't see us being able to tie/win vs New York without any of our best players. Even with them it would be tough. Then our last two games vs our biggest rivals. When is the last time we beat Red Bulls at BMO?

Areathrasher
10-06-2015, 12:44 PM
Premier League rights aren't a SUM property.

ensco
10-06-2015, 01:00 PM
Premier League rights aren't a SUM property.

I hate pesky facts :-)

OK I'll amend .... They see more overlap with EPL viewers than with NFL viewers

Shakes McQueen
10-06-2015, 01:05 PM
It's so nice to be talking about stuff like this for once in October, instead of a) how many people are going to get fired, or b) some recent player blowup.

molenshtain
10-06-2015, 01:11 PM
I don't like the way this is lined up when you break it down game per game. Orlando has easy games and I am really hoping they drop points because I don't see us being able to tie/win vs New York without any of our best players. Even with them it would be tough. Then our last two games vs our biggest rivals. When is the last time we beat Red Bulls at BMO?

last year.

New Jersey is gonna be without Miazga, so that's a big plus for us.

Ivy
10-06-2015, 02:15 PM
I don't like the way this is lined up when you break it down game per game. Orlando has easy games and I am really hoping they drop points because I don't see us being able to tie/win vs New York without any of our best players. Even with them it would be tough. Then our last two games vs our biggest rivals. When is the last time we beat Red Bulls at BMO?
Orlando will be missing Kaka, Shea, and probably Ramos and Redding for the NYC game. Also, If Montreal drop points in their coming games, NYC will still be in the fight for 6th.

GonfiaLaRete
10-06-2015, 04:57 PM
Orlando will be missing Kaka, Shea, and probably Ramos and Redding for the NYC game. Also, If Montreal drop points in their coming games, NYC will still be in the fight for 6th.

Well lets hope NYC can do us a favour while keeping their faint hopes alive. But seriously, does anyone know when the last time we beat Red Bulls at BMO was?

molenshtain
10-06-2015, 05:04 PM
Well lets hope NYC can do us a favour while keeping their faint hopes alive. But seriously, does anyone know when the last time we beat Red Bulls at BMO was?

it was the last time they played here. Hagglund dominated Henry and Robles punched matt miazga in the head. I said that already.

GonfiaLaRete
10-06-2015, 05:20 PM
it was the last time they played here. Hagglund dominated Henry and Robles punched matt miazga in the head. I said that already.

You did, yes. My bad.

ensco
10-06-2015, 06:35 PM
it was the last time they played here. Hagglund dominated Henry and Robles punched matt miazga in the head. I said that already.

That was the game where Luke Moore scored that goofy goal that bounced over Robles in extra time

OgtheDim
10-06-2015, 06:52 PM
For those who want to reminisce


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLTw703TgOI

molenshtain
10-06-2015, 06:59 PM
I see it was miller and not Miazga. my bad.

Stadium looks weird though.

GonfiaLaRete
10-06-2015, 08:34 PM
Can we ask to stop with this fireworks nonsense?

jloome
10-06-2015, 08:43 PM
p******

Godamnit Fizik it took me half the day trying to figure out what expletive is that long. Ridiculous.:smilielol5:

g:Dg:D Too funny.

notthesun
10-06-2015, 09:11 PM
For those who want to reminisce


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLTw703TgOI

That finish from Defoe is seriously ridiculously good.

Nerepis
10-06-2015, 09:47 PM
I was thinking last game that Seba should take a yellow card, on purpose, late in the game. He sits out the game for yellow accumulation while on international duty and doesn't have to play on eggshells for the rest of the season. Is this legal?

notthesun
10-06-2015, 10:05 PM
I was thinking last game that Seba should take a yellow card, on purpose, late in the game. He sits out the game for yellow accumulation while on international duty and doesn't have to play on eggshells for the rest of the season. Is this legal?

Yellow card suspensions don't apply until players return from international duty.

Nerepis
10-06-2015, 10:09 PM
Yellow card suspensions don't apply until players return from international duty.
Thanks

bignickel
10-07-2015, 12:35 AM
Yellow card suspensions don't apply until players return from international duty.

but if he was to be able to make it back for game time, does this still apply? I mean, Italy plays Tuesday and is 6 hours ahead of us, he could easily be back in Toronto by 1pm on Wednesday.

Pint
10-07-2015, 08:05 AM
He would have to be back in toronto by game time which may be difficult if they wanted the suspension to be for the NYRB game.

michaeltfc91
10-07-2015, 08:42 AM
He would have to be back in toronto by game time which may be difficult if they wanted the suspension to be for the NYRB game.

Guys how can he be suspended for NYRB game? It is our next league game so he cannot be suspended for it at all! He can get a yellow vs. NYRB (which wont happen because he isn't playing) and be suspended vs. Columbus; or get a yellow vs. Columbus and be suspended for Montreal. Basically play vs. Columbus and don't get a yellow and he's fine.

Secondly Columbus's next game is against yours truly, Toronto FC. So if those players mentioned above were to get a 5th yellow it would happen against Toronto and they would be suspended for the next league game

Pint
10-07-2015, 08:50 AM
Guys how can he be suspended for NYRB game? It is our next league game so he cannot be suspended for it at all! He can get a yellow vs. NYRB (which wont happen because he isn't playing) and be suspended vs. Columbus; or get a yellow vs. Columbus and be suspended for Montreal. Basically play vs. Columbus and don't get a yellow and he's fine.

Secondly Columbus's next game is against yours truly, Toronto FC. So if those players mentioned above were to get a 5th yellow it would happen against Toronto and they would be suspended for the next league game

Was/should have been talking in past tense about the comment that he should have tried to pick up a late yellow vs the union. Just stating that logistically it would have been tough to get him back so that the NYRB's game would be the suspension game.

ronzilla
10-07-2015, 12:06 PM
Seba will more than likely miss the RB game because he is playing in Italy on the 13th and will be too jet lagged and tired for next days game.

If he picks up a yellow on the final game, the suspension will be served next season, not through the p******s.

Auzzy
10-09-2015, 02:43 AM
Not sure if this was already mentioned, MLS has released the 2015 p****** schedule:

http://tinyurl.com/pw42gfb

GonfiaLaRete
10-09-2015, 09:13 AM
We need a home p****** game!!