TFC hires Manager of Analytics

[mowe]

Devin Pleuler ‏@devinpleuler (https://twitter.com/devinpleuler) I’ve joined @torontofc (https://twitter.com/torontofc) as their Manager of Analytics. I’m deeply appreciative of the opportunities granted to me by both @OptaPro (https://twitter.com/OptaPro) and @MLS (https://twitter.com/MLS).

Archive of columns he's written for mlsssoccer.com: http://www.mlssoccer.com/author/Devin-Pleuler

Extratime Radio podcast with him talking about analytics: http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/6/3/a/63a6480273b83325/Bookclub_numbers_gmae.mp3?c_id=8122837&expiration=1424203181&hwt=2f1183a114f952295be31e1061d6fb54

[Pookie]

And the discussion of the value of possession begins.

[TFC07]

Oh great, we hire another:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRsPheErBj8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRsPheErBj8)



Lol, joking aside, nice to see TFC beef up their FO.

[ryan]

the word analytics makes me want to barf.

[OgtheDim]

the word analytics makes me want to barf.

Think about it this way:


As you barf, do you consider what is coming back up and make sure you don't do that combination of food and excess quite the same again?


That's analytics.

[Canary10]

Think about it this way:


As you barf, do you consider what is coming back up and make sure you don't do that combination of food and excess quite the same again?


That's analytics.

Analytics in this sense is game statistics. Opta does game stats. It doesn't do training data. So it isn't answering the question whether that food combo and exercise caused the barf.

[PopePouri]

In a salary capped league, I'm not agnostic to it.

[Pookie]

Just an opinion of course…. the value of "analytics" is really limited to accurately describing history. Very little predictive value which makes it questionable to base decisions on it.

At its simplest level, I'm one that believes that if you dominate possession and outshoot your opponent you stand a good chance to win. It's just common sense. But that doesn't guarantee any future success and countless example of poor possession teams winning games makes any correlation almost impossible.

I also don't believe you can coach possession. You either have the horses that dominate a game with skill and effort or you don't.

[jloome]

Sorry Pookie, you're a smart guy and all, but that's horseshit. Of course you can coach possession; it may be overwhelmed by the athleticism and speed of your opponent, but there are Conference teams that can pass circles around MLS because their players learn from an early age to fundamentally understand how to move into open space and are coached, when options close down, to take alternatives.

That latter part is important; the game is played at too high a speed to have much of that decision making be conscious, so it has to be ingrained through repetition. This basic lack of providing options describes one of the reasons a string of our coaches have failed.(And is something Vanney's interviews have made it sound as if they are now concentrating on, thank goodness). It's why we've always been so static off the ball.

Additionally, players repeat the same mistakes of both movement and position over and over again unless it's coached out of them. That doesn't all happen before they get to the pro level; it can't, because the speed of the decision making is substantially greater. It's not purely instinctive, it's coached.

[ryan]

Think about it this way:


As you barf, do you consider what is coming back up and make sure you don't do that combination of food and excess quite the same again?


That's analytics.

After 30.5 years of life, I clearly do not do this.

[TorontoGooner]

Oh great, we hire another:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRsPheErBj8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRsPheErBj8)



Lol, joking aside, nice to see TFC beef up their FO.

Greatest post of all time, to be honest

[Red I]

Analytics in this sense is game statistics. Opta does game stats. It doesn't do training data. So it isn't answering the question whether that food combo and exercise caused the barf.

So the basic methods he spoke about in audio clip in which he mentions monitoring heart rate, work load... that isn't training data?

EDIT: nvm, Opta doesn't do training stats you are right, but as the audio clip alluded to, there are easy baslines and benchmarks to identify when there is overworking and the such which can cause injuries - so while OPTA doesn't answer the question whether a food combo and excercise caused the barf, it doesn't negate the fact that that knowledge base exists - it won't guarantee you don't barf, just give you certain scenarios where people haven't barfed and what they did to ensure they didn't

[brad]

You may not like analytics, but Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and a whole lot of other top mangers do. Anayltics are never going to replace a good manager, make a bad one into a good one, or a good one into a great one. But is is another tool that they can and do use.

[pdubs]

You may not like analytics, but Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and a whole lot of other top mangers do. Anayltics are never going to replace a good manager, make a bad one into a good one, or a good one into a great one. But is is another tool that they can and do use.

Exactly. It is not widely spoken of within this sport but it does have it's place among some of the best managers and organizations in the world. Glad to add something like this to the FO. Just because we now have a manager of analytic's doesn't mean the more traditional methods are out the window. It is piece to give us a competitive edge, especially within MLS do to our available $$$ over other teams.

Good move.

[Areathrasher]

And the discussion of the value of possession begins.

Devin Pleuler @devinpleuler (https://twitter.com/devinpleuler) · Jan 17 (https://twitter.com/devinpleuler/status/556517484338372608)

We should get away from the expression "possession oriented play". Everyone is possession oriented. Instead, let's use direct vs. indirect.

[Areathrasher]

And the discussion of the value of possession begins.

Devin Pleuler @devinpleuler (https://twitter.com/devinpleuler) · Jan 17 (https://twitter.com/devinpleuler/status/556517484338372608)

We should get away from the expression "possession oriented play". Everyone is possession oriented. Instead, let's use direct vs. indirect.


*Nods*

[Mark TFC]

Greatest post of all time, to be honest

Gotta agree! Hahahaha!

[jloome]

After 30.5 years of life, I clearly do not do this.

When the acid reflux starts eating your throat muscles, you'll be left without much choice. but generally that's not until about 40.

[PopePouri]

Just reading through his stuff now, very interesting. He's not just analytical but he uses it all in terms of the tactical. Stuff like this will be extremely useful.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2012/05/15/central-winger-passing-graphs-reveal-seattle-weakness

[Cuppy]

the word analytics makes me want to barf.
yup, that and the term metrics. Makes me wanna take a flamethrower to this place

[Shakes McQueen]

Sorry Pookie, you're a smart guy and all, but that's horseshit.

"Sorry Pookie, you're a smart guy and all, but FALCON PUNCH."

[Pookie]

Exactly. It is not widely spoken of within this sport but it does have it's place among some of the best managers and organizations in the world. Glad to add something like this to the FO. Just because we now have a manager of analytic's doesn't mean the more traditional methods are out the window. It is piece to give us a competitive edge, especially within MLS do to our available $$$ over other teams.

Good move.

Agreed.

Though where I get concerned is when these things get outside the Coaching room and into the mainstream. It's where the NHL is headed by posting Corsi/Fenwick data on their stats pages (in the near future). We have reporters talking about the Leafs in terms of Corsi performance and quite honestly Corsi is all over the map with respect to success.

At one point the Leafs were 4th overall in Corsi (CF%) (2009-10) and missed the playoffs. They've been at the bottom in CF% … and missed the playoffs. Teams with good Corsi numbers win Cups. Teams with bad Corsi numbers win Cups.

Yet this "advanced stat" is trotted out as some kind of predictive measure amongst the masses and everyone becomes an expert. If only the Leafs had better Corsi numbers… that's all they need to do… go out and outshoot their opponent and keep the puck more. They get held to that standard as if a) it's even remotely correlated with success and b) as if it is the only way to play the game and c) as if saying it can magically make it happen. Geez coach, why didn't you say we needed to shoot more?

My concern is when that hits the mainstream, that's how coaches will start to coach through the minor leagues. Focusing on stats instead of development or creativity.

Soccer is no where near that edge yet but my hope is that it stays within the rooms of those that know what they are trying to measure and can put context around it.

Data to evaluate your team and players is always good. Publishing that data? The jury is out.

[Shakes McQueen]

When the acid reflux starts eating your throat muscles, you'll be left without much choice. but generally that's not until about 40.

You get a ten year ban if you describe this process in any further detail.

[Pookie]

Sorry Pookie, you're a smart guy and all, but that's horseshit. Of course you can coach possession; it may be overwhelmed by the athleticism and speed of your opponent, but there are Conference teams that can pass circles around MLS because their players learn from an early age to fundamentally understand how to move into open space and are coached, when options close down, to take alternatives.

That latter part is important; the game is played at too high a speed to have much of that decision making be conscious, so it has to be ingrained through repetition. This basic lack of providing options describes one of the reasons a string of our coaches have failed.(And is something Vanney's interviews have made it sound as if they are now concentrating on, thank goodness). It's why we've always been so static off the ball.

Additionally, players repeat the same mistakes of both movement and position over and over again unless it's coached out of them. That doesn't all happen before they get to the pro level; it can't, because the speed of the decision making is substantially greater. It's not purely instinctive, it's coached.

Well, tell me how you really feel? :)

If you have 2 teams that stress possession, which team wins that battle?

IMO, it's the one with skill and effort. And while skill can be coached, effort can't.

I think this applies significantly to the MLS as it is largely parity driven with the bulk of the players coming from the same USSF talent pool.

Just $0.02

[jloome]

Well, tell me how you really feel? :)

If you have 2 teams that stress possession, which team wins that battle?

IMO, it's the one with skill and effort. And while skill can be coached, effort can't.

I think this applies significantly to the MLS as it is largely parity driven with the bulk of the players coming from the same USSF talent pool.

Just $0.02

I don't doubt it. I didn't disagree with that. I disagreed with the suggestion that you can't coach possession. You just overgeneralized on a sore point for me, as possession and possession-based movement has been one of TFC's weak spots for quite a long time.

[jloome]

You get a ten year ban if you describe this process in any further detail.

LOL. Just avoid too much Pepsi and you should be okay. If you must drink rum, get the dark stuff and drink it straight over ice. It will probably also eat your stomach lining, but will be sooo much more fun.

[Cashcleaner]

Yeah...there's a reason why analytics and general performance number-crunching is becoming a larger trend in sports today - it's simply proving to be another useful effective tool out of many that a coach or manager and their staffs can use to improve their team. Personally, I think it's a good thing that TFC has created a position of Manager of Analytics. It's an aspect of management that is never going to replace natural talent, tactics, leadership, and instinct - but I don't know of anyone who would argue that it would. Rather, it's just another method to increase maximize strength or minimize weakness.

Anyone who's not familiar should really take a quick listen to the clip mowe has posted: http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/6/3/a/63a6...e31e1061d6fb54 (http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/6/3/a/63a6480273b83325/Bookclub_numbers_gmae.mp3?c_id=8122837&expiration=1424203181&hwt=2f1183a114f952295be31e1061d6fb54)

[ag futbol]

Agreed.

Though where I get concerned is when these things get outside the Coaching room and into the mainstream. It's where the NHL is headed by posting Corsi/Fenwick data on their stats pages (in the near future). We have reporters talking about the Leafs in terms of Corsi performance and quite honestly Corsi is all over the map with respect to success.

At one point the Leafs were 4th overall in Corsi (CF%) (2009-10) and missed the playoffs. They've been at the bottom in CF% … and missed the playoffs. Teams with good Corsi numbers win Cups. Teams with bad Corsi numbers win Cups.

Yet this "advanced stat" is trotted out as some kind of predictive measure amongst the masses and everyone becomes an expert. If only the Leafs had better Corsi numbers… that's all they need to do… go out and outshoot their opponent and keep the puck more. They get held to that standard as if a) it's even remotely correlated with success and b) as if it is the only way to play the game and c) as if saying it can magically make it happen. Geez coach, why didn't you say we needed to shoot more?

My concern is when that hits the mainstream, that's how coaches will start to coach through the minor leagues. Focusing on stats instead of development or creativity.

Soccer is no where near that edge yet but my hope is that it stays within the rooms of those that know what they are trying to measure and can put context around it.

Data to evaluate your team and players is always good. Publishing that data? The jury is out.
This would just go down as another example of the media dumbing something down to the point where it's misunderstood and applied by amateurs.

In general I think the use of stats & data is a positive. Sure it can still be misapplied and over used, but it should none the less be a part of any modern team.

Wouldn't be too worried unless they really start pushing the envelope.

[Doucet3]

You get a ten year ban if you describe this process in any further detail.
Bahahahahhahahaha lmao shakes fuckin ten year ban, idk why I found that so funny but my coworkers are now looking at me weird ��

[CBTFC]

My new sports viewing drinking game is taking a sip everytime an announcer says analytics...you should have a pretty solid buzz going merely 1/4 into the game.

[ryan]

When the acid reflux starts eating your throat muscles, you'll be left without much choice. but generally that's not until about 40.

9.5 more years of bad decisions! WAHOO!

[jabbronies]

You may not like analytics, but Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, Arsene Wenger and a whole lot of other top mangers do. Anayltics are never going to replace a good manager, make a bad one into a good one, or a good one into a great one. But is is another tool that they can and do use.


This is exactly it - it's just one of many tools that a manager should be using.
Not the be all and end all, but it is part of a larger picture.

Bad example but knowing something like - 75% of the times when the ball is swung out to the left flank after a counter attack against us, we create X amounts of scoring chances vs. going up the right.

It doesn't give you the whole picture, but it can alert you to things you may never have considered before.

[TOBOR !]

Before there was Analytics there was Valeriy Lobanovskyi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeriy_Lobanovskyi)

http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2011/may/12/valeriy-lobanovskyi-dynamo-kyiv


Eventually, after a chance meeting with the statistician Anatoliy Zelentsov at a party, it was the latter that won out. Football became for him a system of 22 elements – two sub-systems of 11 elements – moving within a defined area (the pitch) and subject to a series of restrictions (the laws of the game). If the two sub-systems were equal, the outcome would be a draw. If one were stronger, they would win. The aspect that Lobanovskyi found most fascinating was that the sub-systems were subject to a peculiarity: the efficiency of the sub-system was greater than the sum of the efficiencies of the elements that comprise it. That, as Lobanovskyi saw it, meant football was ripe for the application of the cybernetic techniques being taught at the Polytechnic Institute. Football, he concluded, was less about individuals than about coalitions and the connections between them.

[Fort York Redcoat]

My new sports viewing drinking game is taking a sip everytime an announcer says analytics...you should have a pretty solid buzz going merely 1/4 into the game.

It should be as slovenly as the pre season Winter got here and mentions of "Total Football":drinking:

[Lennon]

For any analytics doubters ..
http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2015/feb/22/brentford-mathematical-modelling-denmark?CMP=share_btn_tw

[OgtheDim]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2015/03/26/toronto-fc-relying-use-analytics-help-measure-fitness-establish-style-play

[hulkrogan]

I like stuff like this if it's used to measure workload etc for injury management. Where I get scared is stuff like judging past performance on specific stats and indicators. For example, we played bad last game because we didn't complete enough passes. Next game you have a bunch of guys completing passes for the sake of completing passes, and still losing. This stuff is useful if looking at the whole picture, but teams that have played for the stats instead of using the stats as a tool to review past performances (the Edmonton Oilers) have shown us this approach doesn't work in highly dynamic sports.