MYTH: TFC would've made the playoffs with Nelson

[mowe]

This is a common rhetoric I've seen around the boards. TFC were sitting pretty in 3rd place under Nelson with 10 games left then Bez came in and messed everything up. If only the accountant didn't make his power play we would've made the playoffs.

The numbers:

TFC under Nelson: 24 games, 33 points, 1.375 PPG

5th place team (SKC): 34 games, 49 points, 1.44 PPG

So clearly the pace Nelson had this team on was not good enough for the playoffs. His 1.375 PPG would've been good for 46.75 points over 34 games.

Now you might argue that Nelson could've improved on his form towards the end of the season. However, the numbers pre and post-World Cup break do not back this up.

Pre-WC: 11 games, 19 points, 1.727 PPG

Post-WC: 13 games, 14 points, 1.077 PPG

This team was on a massive downward spiral after the World Cup break. Teams had us figured out and Nelson was out of ideas. That's why firing him was the right move. We were never going to recover our form.

Now, I'm NOT saying that Vanney is the better choice to lead the team. I am still reserving judgement on him. I just wanted to disprove the notion that things were going great for TFC and Nelson should've been kept on. Yes they were in 3rd place, but that really doesn't mean anything. What matters is how many points you get and Nelson wasn't getting enough.

[Graeme]

How many games did Nelsen have with Caldwell back?

[OgtheDim]

Well I suppose it is the appropriate night for the zombie issues thought dead to come back to life.

[BelfastBoy]

the grassy knoll..

[MightyDM]

Alan. Pardew.

[ag futbol]

I tend to agree with the OP, but at the same time I feel like we've beat a dead horse with this one, same with Vanney vs. an experienced manager.

Nelsen is gone and Vanney's the coach next year (or so it looks like).

[Areathrasher]

No matter what way your bread is buttered there is simply no way to know what would have happened had Nelsen been kept on/Vanney hired on at a later date.

We all have our thoughts and beliefs to what may have happened but I think at this stage we should all start to move on.

If Nelsen gets hired by Houston and leads them to greatness in the west or Vanney flops out next year lets revisit but for now, there is really no point beating a dead horse.

[Mark TFC]

Theories are just that - theories. Truthfully, no one knows how Nelsen could have done, and whether he could have recovered or not. BUT we know now that it definitely wouldn't have hurt us to keep him for at least the remainder of the season. This is a thought I've echoed many times - I said it from the moment he was sacked. I think the sacking was another big confusing mess for the organization, and without a doubt, it disrupted the squad at a crucial point in the season.

[prizby]

This is a common rhetoric I've seen around the boards. TFC were sitting pretty in 3rd place under Nelson with 10 games left then Bez came in and messed everything up. If only the accountant didn't make his power play we would've made the playoffs.

The numbers:

TFC under Nelson: 24 games, 33 points, 1.375 PPG

5th place team (SKC): 34 games, 49 points, 1.44 PPG

So clearly the pace Nelson had this team on was not good enough for the playoffs. His 1.375 PPG would've been good for 46.75 points over 34 games.

Now you might argue that Nelson could've improved on his form towards the end of the season. However, the numbers pre and post-World Cup break do not back this up.

Pre-WC: 11 games, 19 points, 1.727 PPG

Post-WC: 13 games, 14 points, 1.077 PPG

This team was on a massive downward spiral after the World Cup break. Teams had us figured out and Nelson was out of ideas. That's why firing him was the right move. We were never going to recover our form.

Now, I'm NOT saying that Vanney is the better choice to lead the team. I am still reserving judgement on him. I just wanted to disprove the notion that things were going great for TFC and Nelson should've been kept on. Yes they were in 3rd place, but that really doesn't mean anything. What matters is how many points you get and Nelson wasn't getting enough.

If we are looking at the 'numbers' then lets look at when Nelsen was fired.

TFC's had 33 points and sat 4th with New England having the tie breaker on us at the time. There were 6 teams below TFC at that time in the east. Of games up to that point against those 6 teams below us, TFC had a combined record of 6 wins and 4 draws in 10 games or 22 points out of 30. Now if we take the points per game rate (2.2 ppg) like you have been using, we realize that over the final 6 games played against these teams, TFC would be good for 13.2 (or for rounding purposes), 13 points. Lets add a win against Chivas and you got yourself 49 points.

myth debunked

[Ultra & Proud]

Either way he should have stayed for the year especially if he was on a similar path of failure that Vanney led us down. If Nelsen pulled out a final stretch as brutal as Vanney did then we wouldn't have these debates and Vanney's hiring wouldn't be as contentious as it is now.

This was a big error on Bez's part, optically and results wise.

[ryan]

MYTH: Being able to determine what results would have been had under Nelson.

[brad]

There is one big X-factor here. Nelsen had the benefit of a fully fit, motivated Defoe scoring for fun. Vanney didn't. That is always the big question for me between the two. Was Nelsen a better manager, or was he just fortunate enough to have Defoe make him look better than he was at the start of the season? How would Vanney's number have looked if he had the fortune of Defoe scoring 11 goals for him under his tenure?

Impossible to tell.

[Canary10]

I agree with Areathrasher and Ultra & Proud. There is no way to know what would have happened either way. Calling it a myth is a bit foolish, since we can't know either way. And Bez made a big strategic error in the firing. And not just the optics, but if he thought at all it would turn the team around then he was grossly overoptimistic. Changing managers that late very rarely works if you look at examples from the EPL and elsewhere (like Norwich, Fulham).

[JuliquE]

Either way he should have stayed for the year especially if he was on a similar path of failure that Vanney led us down. If Nelsen pulled out a final stretch as brutal as Vanney did then we wouldn't have these debates and Vanney's hiring wouldn't be as contentious as it is now.

This was a big error on Bez's part, optically and results wise.
Tend to agree with this; whilst there are certainly positives that Vanney has got a good look at what he has, in terms of determining their quality and character (through a difficult time, as well), there are also the optics, as you say, of his record, whatever you attribute it to.. and that will always have, at the least, a slight sub-conscious affect on some of the lads, as well as the supporters.

Still.. I remain VERY confident in Vanney, and it doesn't just seem like a "gut feeling," the way it might have done, in past.

[trane]

Once, again I will state, I understand why they fired Nelsen, although I was not calling for it myself, but I was underwhelmed by the hiring of Vanney, and have been underwhelmed by him since. If you are going to fire a manager, because it does not seem like he will make it to the playoffs you need to hire one with a more impressive CV.

[Cashcleaner]

^ That's probably the best summation of the whole thing, trane.

It sorta boils down to the club saying: "Hey look, we had to fire Nelsen because he couldn't cut it. So here's a new guy that no real history that indicates he could the job do better".

Of course, Vanney could surprise all of us at the start of the new season and carry us through to the post season. I dunno. You dunno. None of us knows. But I agree with your remarks completely.

[Masked Man]

They probably would have been a lot closer to the playoffs than they ended up being. Defoe having the worst groin injury of all time would've been a huge blow regardless but they might have been able to recover to grab more points.

The real MYTH is that they fired Nelsen because of what the team was doing. They fired him because he opened his yap & told the GM to basically shut up. It was a pure ego move by a rookie GM that got handed some humble pie. Now we have this clown(with a season of exp as GM) & another coach with virtually no experience. Why are TFC hiring people with no fucking experience when they have no fucking patience to see things through???? It's just ridiculous....

[jloome]

They probably would have been a lot closer to the playoffs than they ended up being. Defoe having the worst groin injury of all time would've been a huge blow regardless but they might have been able to recover to grab more points.

The real MYTH is that they fired Nelsen because of what the team was doing. They fired him because he opened his yap & told the GM to basically shut up. It was a pure ego move by a rookie GM that got handed some humble pie. Now we have this clown(with a season of exp as GM) & another coach with virtually no experience. Why are TFC hiring people with no fucking experience when they have no fucking patience to see things through???? It's just ridiculous....

It's clear from the interviews that have come since that Bez hired most of the replacement staff months and months before Nelsen "opened his yap", so this is just wrong.

I have faith in what Bezbatchenko and Vanney are doing so far; given that I've managed to predict -- sometimes quite publicly in columns -- every prior coach firing at TFC in luding Nelsen, believe me that the endorsement does not come lightly.

I realize the rational arguments against both; but the experience issue is very surface when you look at the training, the skills, the decisions and statements made from both so far about where we should be going, statements that at least in Vanney's case have been loaded with frank assessments, honesty and a dose of humility about where to go from here.

[MightyDM]

It's clear from the interviews that have come since that Bez hired most of the replacement staff months and months before Nelsen "opened his yap", so this is just wrong.

I have faith in what Bezbatchenko and Vanney are doing so far; given that I've managed to predict -- sometimes quite publicly in columns -- every prior coach firing at TFC in luding Nelsen, believe me that the endorsement does not come lightly.

I realize the rational arguments against both; but the experience issue is very surface when you look at the training, the skills, the decisions and statements made from both so far about where we should be going, statements that at least in Vanney's case have been loaded with frank assessments, honesty and a dose of humility about where to go from here.


I will grant you that Vanney sounds good. That's about it though, as the on field evidence is not persuasive that he can translate words to actions. The more I think about it, the more Bez's move to fire Nelsen during the season was wrong - he admits in his year end interview that Vanney had no chance to help the team win against Philly, essentially admitting that the timining was poor from the teams perspective. If you look at previous form under Nelsen, the team was likely to pick up four points in those two games. It appears that Bez was seizing a moment of weakness to get rid of Nelsen because he never wanted him and was prepared to risk the playoffs to do it, knowing that if the team rebounded and got points against Philly, he would have lost the moment.

[Red4ever]

^ That's probably the best summation of the whole thing, trane.

It sorta boils down to the club saying: "Hey look, we had to fire Nelsen because he couldn't cut it. So here's a new guy that no real history that indicates he could the job do better".

Of course, Vanney could surprise all of us at the start of the new season and carry us through to the post season. I dunno. You dunno. None of us knows. But I agree with your remarks completely.

It is pretty crazy though, and I'm sure I'm not the only one asking this, but how long do we go before Vanney gets axed?

Only here.

[Fort York Redcoat]

I will grant you that Vanney sounds good. That's about it though, as the on field evidence is not persuasive that he can translate words to actions. The more I think about it, the more Bez's move to fire Nelsen during the season was wrong - he admits in his year end interview that Vanney had no chance to help the team win against Philly, essentially admitting that the timining was poor from the teams perspective. If you look at previous form under Nelsen, the team was likely to pick up four points in those two games. It appears that Bez was seizing a moment of weakness to get rid of Nelsen because he never wanted him and was prepared to risk the playoffs to do it, knowing that if the team rebounded and got points against Philly, he would have lost the moment.

Ridiculous conjecture. He may not have got along with the man but to infer there was any animosity from the start is completely unsubstantiated. And I won't even comment on the premise of a first time manager risking playoffs in front of his superiors. He made a poor move in being heavy handed and things escalated to the point someone had to leave. A first time coach vs a first time Manager is about rank.

People still put too much on the coaches for me.

Maybe Nelsen was too hard on the players and wore them down to injury but if that's the case it's not on Vanney. You can't coach your way out of fatigue. I put this change on the players when it happened and the performance at the key point in the season is still on them IMO. I might not have seen much brilliance in the new coach but he still had players making individual mistakes.

I believe that if Nelsen had stayed Nelsen couldn't have made those players any more rested and they sure weren't actualizing any success from Nelsen's coaching before he went. Why or how that would have turned around I don't see.

[Pookie]

With multiple draft picks in just a few weeks that will sort through what is essentially USA based talent... can someone tell me what is so horrible about having a guy at the helm that is very familiar with that program and also has experience as a scout within that environment?

Making a change now would be one of the dumbest moves that this organization has ever done... and that is saying a lot.

[Canary10]

With multiple draft picks in just a few weeks that will sort through what is essentially USA based talent... can someone tell me what is so horrible about having a guy at the helm that is very familiar with that program and also has experience as a scout within that environment?

Making a change now would be one of the dumbest moves that this organization has ever done... and that is saying a lot.

I'm resigned to that fact, as are a lot of people I suspect. It makes me laugh when I hear "Vanney needs two full seasons" though. We've heard that, what, eight or nine times in 8 years now. Vanney's countdown is on.

[Parkdale]

With multiple draft picks in just a few weeks that will sort through what is essentially USA based talent... can someone tell me what is so horrible about having a guy at the helm that is very familiar with that program and also has experience as a scout within that environment?

Making a change now would be one of the dumbest moves that this organization has ever done... and that is saying a lot.

while we're riding in the way-back machine.... Help me remember the situation....

We had just fired 'Coach X' and 'Coach Y' was left to run things on an interim basis. 'Coach Y' started making off-season moves and people were upset because we really didn't want 'Coach Y' to screw things up for the imminent 'Coach Z'. But the logical heads knew that if 'Coach Y' sat on his hands and didn't make deals, then he would have been an absolute failure.

so... do the algebra and fill in the values for X, Y, and Z.

[brad]

It is pretty crazy though, and I'm sure I'm not the only one asking this, but how long do we go before Vanney gets axed?

Only here.

I'm going to go with the old classic from the TFC playbook. If we don't make the playoffs, he gets axed in the fall, right before SSH renewals.

[MightyDM]

I like listening to Vanney in his press conferences, but on the field his team looked incredibly fragile defensively. Adding to that a GM whose judgment was poor on the biggest decision he had to make (given the unstable history of this club he had to let Nelsen finish the season) and I am worried for next year, very. It is the first time that I haven't been blindly optimistic. I have a very bad feeling this time.

[JuliquE]

I like listening to Vanney in his press conferences, but on the field his team looked incredibly fragile defensively. Adding to that a GM whose judgment was poor on the biggest decision he had to make (given the unstable history of this club he had to let Nelsen finish the season) and I am worried for next year, very. It is the first time that I haven't been blindly optimistic. I have a very bad feeling this time.
I would say the same, except that I have a very good feeling.

You said you like listening to Vanney's pressers, as if he is just offering up soothing clichés. I think that's not doing what he says justice. I agree he should be judged by results, and there's egg all over Bez's face for how the season has concluded.. but, let's be fair: when you take the substance of what Vanney has been saying, it's clear he'll NEVER have been able to do much, in a couple weeks time, and with many of those crammed with three games (little/no training).

I hear you man -- we're all suffering -- but, more than ever, I think we have reason to get behind the coach. Cautious optimism, at this point, is probably a given, in most cases.. but, it's not just a gut feeling, for me, anymore; he is saying very specific, honest things, that, if allowed the time, realistically, to implement them, we should be better off for it.

[BuSaPuNk]

I would say the same, except that I have a very good feeling.

You said you like listening to Vanney's pressers, as if he is just offering up soothing clichés. I think that's not doing what he says justice. I agree he should be judged by results, and there's egg all over Bez's face for how the season has concluded.. but, let's be fair: when you take the substance of what Vanney has been saying, it's clear he'll NEVER have been able to do much, in a couple weeks time, and with many of those crammed with three games (little/no training).

I hear you man -- we're all suffering -- but, more than ever, I think we have reason to get behind the coach. Cautious optimism, at this point, is probably a given, in most cases.. but, it's not just a gut feeling, for me, anymore; he is saying very specific, honest things, that, if allowed the time, realistically, to implement them, we should be better off for it.

This is bang on what I'm feeling.

Stop the carousel of coaching changes, allow Vanney to work his system in, let Bez work his magic with contracts and cap management.

Less tinkering with the structure and more with personnel.

[T-boy]

I'm resigned to that fact, as are a lot of people I suspect. It makes me laugh when I hear "Vanney needs two full seasons" though. We've heard that, what, eight or nine times in 8 years now. Vanney's countdown is on.

Right now I don't care who the coach is - as long as we give him TIME! A season and a half is not enough time! Hell, we can hire Mickey Mouse if we want, just give him 2 damn years to get things moving his way!