TFC has a 90% chance of making the playoffs?

[Canary10]

So says an article on MLSsoccer.com.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2014/08/07/commentary-handicapping-eastern-conference-race-three-months-go

One thing of note, it says we have the second easiest schedule in the league in our final 14 games.

[mowe]

Yeah playoffs are looking pretty secure right now, but I'm more concerned about holding on to a top 3 spot. Best to avoid the play-in game if possible.

[OgtheDim]

Easiest schedule means nothing if those teams start coming on.


The back to back against Philly is going to be critical.

[Detroit_TFC]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html

[Canary10]

Easiest schedule means nothing if those teams start coming on.


The back to back against Philly is going to be critical.

Yeah, and they've been playing better lately. A win this weekend would help a lot too. Put a little distance between us and Columbus.

[Alonso]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html


That website broke my brain.

[jazzy]

I'm not criticizing however, I'm not content on just the play-offs........tired of moderate goals. At least we better kick ass even if we lose , then fine, BUT, if we get out thought or destroyed then I will not say 'oh well at least we made the play-offs'.........I need a strong and competitive effort . Simply an all-out effort by everyone including fielding our best starters . And there is so much parity in the league we can never take any team for granted or we are done for. It's all out from here on. :smash::smash:

[Alonso]

if I'm not criticizing however, I'm not content on just the play-offs........tired of moderate goals. At least we better kick ass even if we lose , then fine BUT if we get out thought or destroyed then I will not be 'oh well at least we made the play-offs'.........I need a strong and competitive effort . Simply an all-out effort by everyone including fielding our best starters . And there is so much parity in the league we can never take any team for granted or we are done for. It's all out from here on .


Exactly, and we HAVE to finish ahead of Vancouver in the standings to get into 2015 CCL.

To me CCL is the pinnacle and we should be playing it.

[Pookie]

I'm not criticizing however, I'm not content on just the play-offs........tired of moderate goals. At least we better kick ass even if we lose , then fine, BUT, if we get out thought or destroyed then I will not say 'oh well at least we made the play-offs'.........I need a strong and competitive effort . Simply an all-out effort by everyone including fielding our best starters . And there is so much parity in the league we can never take any team for granted or we are done for. It's all out from here on. :smash::smash:

Glad you said it.

I got frustrated with Bez's comments last week in that the Montreal game wasn't a must win because they were sitting 3rd in a conference that is weaker than the west.

My competitive bones were rattling over that one.

I do have to admit a bias here in that as a Leaf fan, I have grown extremely tired of "MLSE speak." Of course that expresses itself as "competing for a playoff spot."

Playoffs in soccer are stupid but it's what we have. To aim to be in the top 50% is just a little better than CFL teams that shoot for finishing in the top 66.7%. It's not an accomplishment though I know it has been elusive since our existence as a franchise. It's kind of an accomplishment but it's like your kid not failing in school. I am glad you didn't fail but really come on, the bar isn't just passing is it?

That said, not qualifying for the playoffs again… with this payroll… is inexcusable.

[Yohan]

Well, that s a huge jinx

[Lennon]

Exactly, and we HAVE to finish ahead of Vancouver in the standings to get into 2015 CCL.

To me CCL is the pinnacle and we should be playing it.

How is the Canadian champion determined? Is it the team with the most points after the regular season or the best team after the playoffs ?

[CommradePolski]

How is the Canadian champion determined? Is it the team with the most points after the regular season or the best team after the playoffs ?

The only thing I saw was the team finishing the regular season the most points.

[Alonso]

How is the Canadian champion determined? Is it the team with the most points after the regular season or the best team after the playoffs ?


The only thing I saw was the team finishing the regular season the most points.


Yeah that's right, the Canadian team that finishes with the most points during the MLS season goes to CCL.

NO playoffs.

I'm not sure what the tie breakers are.

[portu]

50 points gives us a 100% at making the playoffs? That's more than doable imo

I'd like to see us make the Eastern Conference Final this year though.

[Cujo]

Yeah that's right, the Canadian team that finishes with the most points during the MLS season goes to CCL.

NO playoffs.

I'm not sure what the tie breakers are.

Are they doing away with the Canadian Championships next year?

[Canary10]

Well, that s a huge jinx

I was thinking that too. Even posting it seems like a jinx. Everyone knock on wood please.

[Oldtimer]

Glad you said it.

I got frustrated with Bez's comments last week in that the Montreal game wasn't a must win because they were sitting 3rd in a conference that is weaker than the west.

My competitive bones were rattling over that one.

I do have to admit a bias here in that as a Leaf fan, I have grown extremely tired of "MLSE speak." Of course that expresses itself as "competing for a playoff spot."

Playoffs in soccer are stupid but it's what we have. To aim to be in the top 50% is just a little better than CFL teams that shoot for finishing in the top 66.7%. It's not an accomplishment though I know it has been elusive since our existence as a franchise. It's kind of an accomplishment but it's like your kid not failing in school. I am glad you didn't fail but really come on, the bar isn't just passing is it?

That said, not qualifying for the playoffs again… with this payroll… is inexcusable.

Stop with the broken record please. You keep making this point over and over ad nauseum. Let the people decide for themselves if they are happy with playoffs instead of telling everyone over and over and over that your viewpoint is superior.

Personally I am happy with playoffs because that is the first step towards winning the MLS Cup. I am not so delusional as some seem to be to think that our team could change from bottom-feeder to top-flight in one off-season (Kreis took 3 years with RSL).

[Fort York Redcoat]

^ I think what's naive is the criticism of stated goals. They are so limited its ridiculous.

Win everything.
Win a title.
make the playoffs.
contention for playoffs.

These are the options. To bitch about the stated objective more than comparing it to the reality of what's been executed already is a waste of high blood pressure.

[Detroit_TFC]

That website broke my brain.

The most interesting thing there is the "Chance Will Make Playoffs" graph mid way on the page. Click full screen, the graph shows the impact of each game result on the playoff chances. Show which games were huge for us, for good or bad.

[Kaz]

right now with the form we've seen I'd say it is 50/50. If we pull off 7-12 points by the end of August (ie 36-41pts by Labour Day) then I'll say sure 90% chance. (that would only be 1.5-1.71 ppg)

Every point under 7 drops our chances by 10% IMO.

[Alonso]

Are they doing away with the Canadian Championships next year?

The winner of the Canadian Championship this year plays in the CCL starting Aug 2014.

The team with the most MLS points in 2014 will compete in CCL Aug 2015.

The winner of the Canadian Championship in 2015 plays in the CCL Aug 2016.

And then, from then on the Canadian Champion in any given year will play the CCL tournament the following season.

Leading point getter in MLS is a one off thing so that they could move the tournament from early spring into later in the year, and also so that they could make it as long as they like. (more flexibility needed especially with more teams joining the tournament into the future)

[Cujo]

The winner of the Canadian Championship this year plays in the CCL starting Aug 2014.

The team with the most MLS points in 2014 will compete in CCL Aug 2015.

The winner of the Canadian Championship in 2015 plays in the CCL Aug 2016.

And then, from then on the Canadian Champion in any given year will play the CCL tournament the following season.

Leading point getter in MLS is a one off thing so that they could move the tournament from early spring into later in the year, and also so that they could make it as long as they like. (more flexibility needed especially with more teams joining the tournament into the future)

Thanks for the explanation, I must've missed that somewhere.

[jazzy]

Exactly, and we HAVE to finish ahead of Vancouver in the standings to get into 2015 CCL.

To me CCL is the pinnacle and we should be playing it.

shit didn't realize that............cheese Louise

[Red4ever]

I like the fact that 8 wins out of 14 almost assures us of top 3. That's the data I took from the site.

[Brooker]

If we don't, it's all your fault, Canary.

[Canary10]

If we don't, it's all your fault, Canary.

Shit, I know.

[Wince]

I'm more concerned about holding on to a top 3 spot

Playoffs and finished ahead of Shitecaps!

[Detroit_TFC]

Yeah, this CCL wrinkle adds a new dimension to things.

[trane]

Isn't that like 900% better then usual at this time of the season?

[tfcocd]

Isn't that like 900% better then usual at this time of the season?


Yep, I think its been 5 years since TFC could entertain any playoff discussion past the midway point of a season. Refreshing to be able to have discussions and debates about the in flight season rather than looking ahead to off-season rebuilds.

[dupont]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/img/1249.gif (http://www.sportslogos.net/team.php?id=1249)
Toronto FC Playoff ChancesDid not play, playoff odds up 0.2 to 95.4%

[ryan]

We win on Sat and we're 4pts out of top spot with 2 games in hand. This game is fucking massive for our chances.

[TFC07]

We win on Sat and we're 4pts out of top spot with 2 games in hand. This game is fucking massive for our chances.

So true, games for now on are going to get bigger for us.

We're pretty much playing must win games until regular season is over.

[C.Ronaldo]

if we win shield, 2nd place gets us open cup?

[razor787]

Open cup is a US tourney. It's their version of the Canadian championship. The spot would get passed to the next American team.

[Red Rat]

...... and 99% chance of fucking it all up last minute.

[RealG-TFC]

I hate getting excited and looking ahead but we could move up real quick if we win on Saturday. DC and SKC play each other the next week while we face Chicago. Imagine if we beat the fire and dc/skc draw.

[OgtheDim]

...Imagine if we beat the fire and dc/skc draw.

Nah...I prefer to imagine a depressing 3-0 loss followed by a 1-0 loss with Chicago. Makes whatever happens seem beter.

[notthesun]

So here's the situation guys. We lost to Sporting KC and as bad as parts of this game were, KC is obviously better than us.

We're still going to be 3rd in the East by the end of the night, with a game or two in hand on those behind us. I still think our playoffs chances are excellent.

First of all, our schedule to end the year is extremely favorable. We don't play a team that is currently in playoff position until October; our upcoming schedule is Chicago, New England, Philly, Philly, Chicago, Chivas, and Portland at home. Points to be taken to say the least. Chicago just lost to Montreal and signed Earnshaw for god's sake.

Second, D.C., SKC, and NYRB are all in the CCL, which could hurt their league play. Most importantly for New York who we'll be competing with for the 3-5 playoff spots.

Third, the East sucks. We won't be the only team dropping points.

Playoffs are well within reach.

[Fort York Redcoat]

Earnshaw's return to BMO? We all saw how he came out the gate so I'll be hoping we shut him down early. Outside of that, Chicago must be gagging for a win after losing to lowly Montreal...

[Oldtimer]

Because of the other results in the East, TFC's chances of a playoff spot haven't really changed (up 0.02%) despite losing to KC. Now 93.3%.

[dupont]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/img/1249.gif (http://www.sportslogos.net/team.php?id=1249)
Toronto FC Playoff ChancesLost to Union 0-2, playoff odds down 25.1 to 35.9%




How things change...

[Shakes McQueen]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/img/1249.gif (http://www.sportslogos.net/team.php?id=1249)
Toronto FC Playoff Chances

Lost to Union 0-2, playoff odds down 25.1 to 35.9%




How things change...

True, though it also shows how idiotic those "percent chance to make the post-season" things are to begin with. The Jays had over an 80% "chance" to make the MLB playoffs a few months ago.

If TFC get it together and win some games, they have a good shot of making it. If they don't, they won't.

[stevep]

So says an article on MLSsoccer.com.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2014/08/07/commentary-handicapping-eastern-conference-race-three-months-go

One thing of note, it says we have the second easiest schedule in the league in our final 14 games.

this is exactly what happened with the leafs last year they had close to 90% probability of making playoffs and then they collapsed also

[Yohan]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings

Now 7th in the East and 3 pts out of playoff spot

[mowe]

I have lost all hope of making the playoffs. Getting a head start on the inevitable heartbreak.

[ensco]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings

Now 7th in the East and 3 pts out of playoff spot

Game in hand.

Just sayin'. :hide:

[Joe Kool]

We also got to beat Vancouver's point total if we want to make CCL next time around. Luckily they started screwing up around the same time as us.

[Brooker]

Where the hell is Canary!

[LFC8]

If we don't make it this year then you can pretty much right off this team forever. Defoe will leave in January and Bradley will follow shortly after and no DP of their quality will come to TFC again. The future is starting to look like the past......

[Canary10]

Where the hell is Canary!

I told people to knock on wood didn't I? Fuck why did I ever post that.

[Abou Sky]

I knew I should have stayed clear of this thread...

[gate7]

anyone like to start a poll on this?

[notthesun]

Good news for TFC: Mike Magee has had season-ending hip surgery, leaving Chicago to rely largely on Amarikwa and Earnshaw to lead the line going forward.