kodiakTFC
06-20-2014, 12:50 PM
Here's a world cup fluff thread if there has ever been one.
It's possible that MLS will have an average attendance of 20,000 next year. In 2005 the league averaged 15,108, a 33% increase in 10 years is substantial. Currently MLS is the 8th highest attended soccer league in the world, this bump will see it up to 6th, surpassing the Eredivisie and Ligue 1.
This Year
MLS ATTENDANCE THROUGH JUNE 18
TEAM
GAMES
TOTAL
AVG.
% CAP.
PREV.
% +/-
GAMES ('13)
Sounders
8
320,728
40,091
104.7%
41,502
-3.4%
6
Toronto FC
6
135,546
22,591
104.6%
19,134
18.1%
7
Whitecaps
6
126,000
21,000
100.0%
19,466
7.9%
8
Timbers
9
187,326
20,814
100.7%
20,674
0.7%
7
Galaxy
5
101,862
20,372
75.5%
21,661
-5.9%
6
Real Salt Lake
7
140,962
20,137
100.6%
18,385
9.5%
8
Impact*
7
138,398
19,771
53.8%
22,032
-10.3%
6
Sporting K.C.
8
157,716
19,715
106.8%
19,426
1.5%
8
Dynamo
8
155,498
19,437
88.4%
19,098
1.8%
7
Union
7
125,835
17,976
97.2%
17,299
3.9%
7
Red Bulls
6
107,102
17,850
70.8%
17,517
1.9%
8
DC United
9
151,466
16,830
72.0%
13,772
22.2%
8
FC Dallas
9
148,131
16,459
81.1%
14,898
10.5%
8
Fire
7
109,222
15,603
78.0%
12,919
20.8%
7
Revolution
6
91,000
15,167
75.8%
13,670
11.0%
8
Crew
7
99,931
14,276
70.9%
13,366
6.8%
7
Rapids
8
112,258
14,032
80.5%
14,702
-4.6%
8
Earthquakes
7
72,538
10,363
98.5%
10,409
-0.4%
8
Chivas USA
7
52,526
7,504
27.8%
8,201
-8.5%
7
MLS TOTALS
137
2,534,045
18,497
82.2%
17,439
6.1%
139
Next Year
1. Chivas USA - Chivas will become LA2 and will be playing outside of the Home Depot Center. There have been whispers that the deal is done and the league is simply waiting for the MLS all-star game. If Los Angeles SC/FC (both trademarks registered) can double their attendance to 15,000, which is far below league average and quite attainable, this would push the league average by 300+. 15,000 may be ridiculously high or conservative. LA is under-served considering LA/Chivas both played out of Carson. That's akin to Toronto have two MLS teams in Brampton.
2. San Jose - San Jose will be playing in their new stadium next year and will see the typically 'new digs' boost. The new stadium will seat 18,000 so we will definitely see this team have their attendance spike. It is however important to note that San Jose plays games in larger stadiums once or twice a year that dramatically increase their numbers. So while we see an average of 10,363 this number will likely be far close to 13-14,000 after they are completed their games at Stanford Stadium (vs. LA) and Levi's Stadium (vs. SEA). Sticking with conservative measurements, if San Jose can move from 10,353 to 16,353, this will see the league average jump an extra 300+ but I would be shocked if this number didn't come closer to 18,000.
3. New York City FC - NYCFC will be playing in Yankee Stadium and will be limiting their attendance to 33,444. This team has spent big to bring in David Villa and is looking at Lampard. The team has not released any numbers on season ticket numbers but the prices are good and the team has been advertising. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+, if they average 30,000 this will put the league up another 500+. We'll go with 300+.
4. Orlando City SC - OC has signed Kaka, is rumored to be signing Robinho, and is playing in a newly renovated Citrus Bowl that they will limit to 19,500 for the majority of games. OCSC is easier to predict than NYCFC because they have an actual fan base and will certainly sell out their games as well as see a bump in attendance figures when they open up the stadium for more prominent games. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+.
5. Toronto FC - BMO is expanding next year by 8,000 seats pushing our capacity to 30,000. I have serious doubts we can sell this out but since we're competitive and we've such an incredible 18.1% bump in attendance, I also find it very difficult to be pessimistic. If we allow for an attendance increase of 5,000 for TFC, the league average is bumped up 200+.
From these five scenarios we can predict that MLS is likely to raise its attendance by 1200, putting the league just shy of 20,000. This is where I hope that the World Cup bringing new interest, new stars coming into the league, the continued growth trend in MLS, the rebrand of the Crew (its happening, we'll see if it does anything), and the added seats to other stadiums (KC and Portland are all investigating possibilities) put us just over 20,000.
Discuss.
It's possible that MLS will have an average attendance of 20,000 next year. In 2005 the league averaged 15,108, a 33% increase in 10 years is substantial. Currently MLS is the 8th highest attended soccer league in the world, this bump will see it up to 6th, surpassing the Eredivisie and Ligue 1.
This Year
MLS ATTENDANCE THROUGH JUNE 18
TEAM
GAMES
TOTAL
AVG.
% CAP.
PREV.
% +/-
GAMES ('13)
Sounders
8
320,728
40,091
104.7%
41,502
-3.4%
6
Toronto FC
6
135,546
22,591
104.6%
19,134
18.1%
7
Whitecaps
6
126,000
21,000
100.0%
19,466
7.9%
8
Timbers
9
187,326
20,814
100.7%
20,674
0.7%
7
Galaxy
5
101,862
20,372
75.5%
21,661
-5.9%
6
Real Salt Lake
7
140,962
20,137
100.6%
18,385
9.5%
8
Impact*
7
138,398
19,771
53.8%
22,032
-10.3%
6
Sporting K.C.
8
157,716
19,715
106.8%
19,426
1.5%
8
Dynamo
8
155,498
19,437
88.4%
19,098
1.8%
7
Union
7
125,835
17,976
97.2%
17,299
3.9%
7
Red Bulls
6
107,102
17,850
70.8%
17,517
1.9%
8
DC United
9
151,466
16,830
72.0%
13,772
22.2%
8
FC Dallas
9
148,131
16,459
81.1%
14,898
10.5%
8
Fire
7
109,222
15,603
78.0%
12,919
20.8%
7
Revolution
6
91,000
15,167
75.8%
13,670
11.0%
8
Crew
7
99,931
14,276
70.9%
13,366
6.8%
7
Rapids
8
112,258
14,032
80.5%
14,702
-4.6%
8
Earthquakes
7
72,538
10,363
98.5%
10,409
-0.4%
8
Chivas USA
7
52,526
7,504
27.8%
8,201
-8.5%
7
MLS TOTALS
137
2,534,045
18,497
82.2%
17,439
6.1%
139
Next Year
1. Chivas USA - Chivas will become LA2 and will be playing outside of the Home Depot Center. There have been whispers that the deal is done and the league is simply waiting for the MLS all-star game. If Los Angeles SC/FC (both trademarks registered) can double their attendance to 15,000, which is far below league average and quite attainable, this would push the league average by 300+. 15,000 may be ridiculously high or conservative. LA is under-served considering LA/Chivas both played out of Carson. That's akin to Toronto have two MLS teams in Brampton.
2. San Jose - San Jose will be playing in their new stadium next year and will see the typically 'new digs' boost. The new stadium will seat 18,000 so we will definitely see this team have their attendance spike. It is however important to note that San Jose plays games in larger stadiums once or twice a year that dramatically increase their numbers. So while we see an average of 10,363 this number will likely be far close to 13-14,000 after they are completed their games at Stanford Stadium (vs. LA) and Levi's Stadium (vs. SEA). Sticking with conservative measurements, if San Jose can move from 10,353 to 16,353, this will see the league average jump an extra 300+ but I would be shocked if this number didn't come closer to 18,000.
3. New York City FC - NYCFC will be playing in Yankee Stadium and will be limiting their attendance to 33,444. This team has spent big to bring in David Villa and is looking at Lampard. The team has not released any numbers on season ticket numbers but the prices are good and the team has been advertising. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+, if they average 30,000 this will put the league up another 500+. We'll go with 300+.
4. Orlando City SC - OC has signed Kaka, is rumored to be signing Robinho, and is playing in a newly renovated Citrus Bowl that they will limit to 19,500 for the majority of games. OCSC is easier to predict than NYCFC because they have an actual fan base and will certainly sell out their games as well as see a bump in attendance figures when they open up the stadium for more prominent games. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+.
5. Toronto FC - BMO is expanding next year by 8,000 seats pushing our capacity to 30,000. I have serious doubts we can sell this out but since we're competitive and we've such an incredible 18.1% bump in attendance, I also find it very difficult to be pessimistic. If we allow for an attendance increase of 5,000 for TFC, the league average is bumped up 200+.
From these five scenarios we can predict that MLS is likely to raise its attendance by 1200, putting the league just shy of 20,000. This is where I hope that the World Cup bringing new interest, new stars coming into the league, the continued growth trend in MLS, the rebrand of the Crew (its happening, we'll see if it does anything), and the added seats to other stadiums (KC and Portland are all investigating possibilities) put us just over 20,000.
Discuss.