PDA

View Full Version : MLS Average Attendance to reach 20,000 in 2015?



kodiakTFC
06-20-2014, 12:50 PM
Here's a world cup fluff thread if there has ever been one.

It's possible that MLS will have an average attendance of 20,000 next year. In 2005 the league averaged 15,108, a 33% increase in 10 years is substantial. Currently MLS is the 8th highest attended soccer league in the world, this bump will see it up to 6th, surpassing the Eredivisie and Ligue 1.

This Year



MLS ATTENDANCE THROUGH JUNE 18



TEAM

GAMES


TOTAL


AVG.


% CAP.


PREV.


% +/-


GAMES ('13)



Sounders

8


320,728


40,091


104.7%


41,502


-3.4%


6



Toronto FC

6


135,546


22,591


104.6%


19,134


18.1%


7



Whitecaps

6


126,000


21,000


100.0%


19,466


7.9%


8



Timbers

9


187,326


20,814


100.7%


20,674


0.7%


7



Galaxy

5


101,862


20,372


75.5%


21,661


-5.9%


6



Real Salt Lake

7


140,962


20,137


100.6%


18,385


9.5%


8



Impact*

7


138,398


19,771


53.8%


22,032


-10.3%


6



Sporting K.C.

8


157,716


19,715


106.8%


19,426


1.5%


8



Dynamo

8


155,498


19,437


88.4%


19,098


1.8%


7



Union

7


125,835


17,976


97.2%


17,299


3.9%


7



Red Bulls

6


107,102


17,850


70.8%


17,517


1.9%


8



DC United

9


151,466


16,830


72.0%


13,772


22.2%


8



FC Dallas

9


148,131


16,459


81.1%


14,898


10.5%


8



Fire

7


109,222


15,603


78.0%


12,919


20.8%


7



Revolution

6


91,000


15,167


75.8%


13,670


11.0%


8



Crew

7


99,931


14,276


70.9%


13,366


6.8%


7



Rapids

8


112,258


14,032


80.5%


14,702


-4.6%


8



Earthquakes

7


72,538


10,363


98.5%


10,409


-0.4%


8



Chivas USA

7


52,526


7,504


27.8%


8,201


-8.5%


7



MLS TOTALS

137


2,534,045


18,497


82.2%


17,439


6.1%


139













Next Year
1. Chivas USA - Chivas will become LA2 and will be playing outside of the Home Depot Center. There have been whispers that the deal is done and the league is simply waiting for the MLS all-star game. If Los Angeles SC/FC (both trademarks registered) can double their attendance to 15,000, which is far below league average and quite attainable, this would push the league average by 300+. 15,000 may be ridiculously high or conservative. LA is under-served considering LA/Chivas both played out of Carson. That's akin to Toronto have two MLS teams in Brampton.

2. San Jose - San Jose will be playing in their new stadium next year and will see the typically 'new digs' boost. The new stadium will seat 18,000 so we will definitely see this team have their attendance spike. It is however important to note that San Jose plays games in larger stadiums once or twice a year that dramatically increase their numbers. So while we see an average of 10,363 this number will likely be far close to 13-14,000 after they are completed their games at Stanford Stadium (vs. LA) and Levi's Stadium (vs. SEA). Sticking with conservative measurements, if San Jose can move from 10,353 to 16,353, this will see the league average jump an extra 300+ but I would be shocked if this number didn't come closer to 18,000.

3. New York City FC - NYCFC will be playing in Yankee Stadium and will be limiting their attendance to 33,444. This team has spent big to bring in David Villa and is looking at Lampard. The team has not released any numbers on season ticket numbers but the prices are good and the team has been advertising. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+, if they average 30,000 this will put the league up another 500+. We'll go with 300+.

4. Orlando City SC - OC has signed Kaka, is rumored to be signing Robinho, and is playing in a newly renovated Citrus Bowl that they will limit to 19,500 for the majority of games. OCSC is easier to predict than NYCFC because they have an actual fan base and will certainly sell out their games as well as see a bump in attendance figures when they open up the stadium for more prominent games. If we assume the team will average 20,000 that pushes the league up another 100+.

5. Toronto FC - BMO is expanding next year by 8,000 seats pushing our capacity to 30,000. I have serious doubts we can sell this out but since we're competitive and we've such an incredible 18.1% bump in attendance, I also find it very difficult to be pessimistic. If we allow for an attendance increase of 5,000 for TFC, the league average is bumped up 200+.

From these five scenarios we can predict that MLS is likely to raise its attendance by 1200, putting the league just shy of 20,000. This is where I hope that the World Cup bringing new interest, new stars coming into the league, the continued growth trend in MLS, the rebrand of the Crew (its happening, we'll see if it does anything), and the added seats to other stadiums (KC and Portland are all investigating possibilities) put us just over 20,000.

Discuss.

OgtheDim
06-20-2014, 01:03 PM
"8th highest attended"

You should amend that to "8th highest counted attendance" with an asterisk indicating that some leagues count tickets purchased while others count bodies through the doors.

C.Ronaldo
06-20-2014, 02:08 PM
whats different this year that chicago had such a huge bump?

I think its possible, MLS always sees a bump after world cup, especially if USA can beat portugal or germany get out of the group stages.

Initial B
06-20-2014, 02:38 PM
Yes, the success level of the USMNT at WC2014 will drive the level of interest. If they make it to the quarter finals again, I think you'll see a surge of interest in MLS over the second half of the season.

Richard
06-20-2014, 03:01 PM
Good for the league, but lets see the T.V/Internet numbers! That's the real measuring stick.

kodiakTFC
06-20-2014, 03:43 PM
Good for the league, but lets see the T.V/Internet numbers! That's the real measuring stick.

This is very true. MLS can continue to grow but it won't 'explode' until we see an increase in TV numbers. The new TV is worth a ton, I remember reading 5x, so obviously investors see potential.

prizby
06-20-2014, 06:05 PM
i think it would be better to evaluate after the summer; summer usually gets a bump in attendance

james
06-20-2014, 11:18 PM
Are you sure TFC is expanding the stadium by 8,000 next year??? I thought it was more like 2016 - 2017 they were going to start renovating BMO field? And we have yet to see anything final yet. They seem to be in the works, but with Argos maybe sharing BMO I think this is a ongoing thing at the moment.

james
06-20-2014, 11:25 PM
But MLS is doing very well. And when you actually see the attendance at many other leagues around the world some people are actually shocked how low attendance is. What often happens is many leagues outside of the big leagues you get many leagues where only 2-4 big teams fill decent to big size stadiums. Rest of the clubs play in 15,000 - 10,000 - 5,000 seat stadiums that even then are not full by any means. Or you get other situations like big clubs in Greece or say Brazil where clubs play in big stadiums with only 10,000 people showing up to watch most games, but then on big matches (cup matches, derby matches, exc)all of a sudden have 50,000+ fans show up(violence in the stands in some countries has also kept some fans away). Overall tho MLS gets decent crowds across the league on a average basis. Now if only the league could improve in quality on the field a bit faster then this league could really take off!

OgtheDim
06-21-2014, 07:43 AM
whats different this year that chicago had such a huge bump?

....

Ownership has made a push to connect back to supporters. They've also had decent weather. Hope with a new coach.


Reality is beginning to set it though.

kodiakTFC
06-21-2014, 01:09 PM
Are you sure TFC is expanding the stadium by 8,000 next year??? I thought it was more like 2016 - 2017 they were going to start renovating BMO field? And we have yet to see anything final yet. They seem to be in the works, but with Argos maybe sharing BMO I think this is a ongoing thing at the moment.

New seats this year.

Roof next year.

All in time for the Pan Am games is the plan.

BeachTory
06-30-2014, 09:23 AM
Expansion plan in phases is approved by city council. City funded part approved. Province and feds no (or not yet)
8,000 new seats for may 2015
phase 2 roof and phase 3 argo renovation likely in some state of limbo pending the prov/fed $20m, CFL negotiations re argo ownership and possible alternative source of $20M if upper govts say no.

full plan at http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2014/mm/bgrd/backgroundfile-70431.pdf

Alonso
06-30-2014, 09:40 AM
Expansion plan in phases is approved by city council. City funded part approved. Province and feds no (or not yet)
8,000 new seats for may 2015
phase 2 roof and phase 3 argo renovation likely in some state of limbo pending the prov/fed $20m, CFL negotiations re argo ownership and possible alternative source of $20M if upper govts say no.

full plan at http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2014/mm/bgrd/backgroundfile-70431.pdf

Sweet, thanks for this.

Defoe
06-30-2014, 10:16 AM
i think it would be better to evaluate after the summer; summer usually gets a bump in attendance

Now that it's officially summer, the world cup has drawn interest to millions in north America... and the games as we go along get more important I feel we will get up to around 20 k THIS YEAR... probably just short. Next year should be 20 + with clever marketing and a salary cap raise. That's my guess at least.