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View Full Version : MLS 3.0 and TFC is one of vanguards?



Yohan
02-11-2014, 02:51 PM
MLS 1.0 (1996-2007) Survival era
MLS 2.0 (2007-2013) Beckham and expansion teams
MLS 3.0 (2014-?)

I came up with following criteria

*big name DPs in late 20s-early 30s (in their prime)
-TFC actually started this trend with Julian de Guzman. While MLS will still get a lot of players looking for the last big paycheque (Drogba, Xavi among rumours), the trend will be to try to sign maybe slightly lesser known, but still big name players in their prime (Robbie Keane, Defoe, Dempsey, Bradley, etc). The DP signings after WC will be interesting to follow

*SSS
-Infrastructure is important. General trend will be to continue to build 18-25k SSS. TFC is again going to be leading the next batch of MLS teams to jump the 20-25k attendance hurdle and aim for 35k SSS (or as close as we get with Argos...) I expect Portland to follow suit, if they can find the next big money investor. Providence Park is pretty much maxed out for capacity. (They sold 10k season tickets for Thorns, women's soccer) I think SKC will follow after.

*big TV money
-Next round of US TV deal is rumoured 70 mil per year. Adding that to Canada/Spanish/int TV rights, MLS should be getting 100 mil per year.

*attracting lesser known Euro div 1 players on non DP wages
-Reo Coker, that ex La Liga FB Christian in DC, ex Bayern Munich FB Gorlitz on trial with SJ, these guys aren't household names, but still solid players who can play. Ability to attract these kinds of players on non DP salaries will indicate how far MLS has come along.

*attracting talented, young SA/CA players to MLS instead of Europe (Valeri, Gilberto, Bernadello, etc)
-This has started within MLS 2.0, but MLS will be more viable option for up and coming SA/CA players using MLS as jump point for tier 1 Euro leagues. (More Montero stories) MLS will always be a feeder league to top 5 Euro leagues, but MLS will benefit from talented youngsters playing in the league for few years, and cashing in on transfer fees.

*strong HG programs league wide
-No brainer. Good teams develop youths, and it is critical in a salary cap league like MLS to be able to develop good youth players. A lot of teams are still working on youth academy, but some are already very far ahead. (Galaxy, Vancouver. Montreal now has a U8 team) I expect USL affiliation and USL 'reserve' team structure get even more stronger, and to play greater part.

*continued expansion
-Again, no brainer. No shortage of interested parties wanting to join MLS. Miami is a lock, and Atlanta should be next after. Minneapolis has 2 groups bidding for expansion, and San Antonio is making a bid.

I think the best benchmark for success of MLS 3.0 is MLS teams winning CCL and competing regularly with Liga MX (and not get crushed whenever going to Mexico).

ManUtd4ever
02-11-2014, 03:04 PM
Good post Yohan. Once again, we are taking the league to the next level.

Now if we can finally make the fucking playoffs...g:D

Super
02-11-2014, 03:11 PM
Very good post indeed. Personally, I would put MLS 3.0 as the day where the salary cap is removed - and where we become a league similar to those in the rest of the world (and won't have to explain why we're so different anymore). However, I really like the improvements to this league, though. New and better stadiums. Better markets. It's all good. But hopefully some day we'll get beyond the salary cap, funny Garber money, MLS HQ messing with clubs and their signings, MLS rules that make no sense to most. I understand that the MLS does this to help this league from folding, but hopefully one day the training wheels will come off of this baby. 3.0!

Yohan
02-11-2014, 03:14 PM
Very good post indeed. Personally, I would put MLS 3.0 as the day where the salary cap is removed - and where we become a league similar to those in the rest of the world (and won't have to explain why we're so different anymore). However, I really like the improvements to this league, though. New and better stadiums. Better markets. It's all good. But hopefully some day we'll get beyond the salary cap, funny Garber money, MLS HQ messing with clubs and their signings, MLS rules that make no sense to most. I understand that the MLS does this to help this league from folding, but hopefully one day the training wheels will come off of this baby. 3.0!
I'm going to be very mad if this thread degenerates into another salary cap, relegation thread. Because every argument is already made, and I don't feel like rehashing it again.

OgtheDim
02-11-2014, 03:31 PM
Good post

I believe 3.0 will also see the increasing rise of the defacto two tier league, with spenders/haves and havenots/tightwads. I would not be surprised if US media companies watch what is going on here in Toronto and, if it succeeds, jump in.

Streaming is going to change a lot of this though. The NFL is going hardcore into streaming options. MLS will follow suit. Pay $5 more on top of MLS Live to follow a cam and everything about Defoe all season long etc.

Super
02-11-2014, 03:37 PM
I'm going to be very mad if this thread degenerates into another salary cap, relegation thread. Because every argument is already made, and I don't feel like rehashing it again.

I'm not sure how you can discuss improvements to this league, or a possible MLS 3.0, without talking about the salary cap. But this is your thread, so feel free to make the arguments you want of course. However, I hope this doesn't prevent other people from discussing things that concern this league.

Beach_Red
02-11-2014, 05:26 PM
I'm not sure how you can discuss improvements to this league, or a possible MLS 3.0, without talking about the salary cap. But this is your thread, so feel free to make the arguments you want of course. However, I hope this doesn't prevent other people from discussing things that concern this league.

If the cap is big enough it won't matter. Most teams' success has more to do with ownership these days than we want to admit. If MLS owners feel they can compete internationally better by providing a united front, it's their money. And they may even be right. All we really care about is that they can attract the best players. And develop the best players.

When American teenagers start choosing soccer over baseball, basketball, and football scholarships then MLS will enter 4.0 and make its move towards being a real major league in America.

Super
02-11-2014, 05:47 PM
If the cap is big enough it won't matter. Most teams' success has more to do with ownership these days than we want to admit. If MLS owners feel they can compete internationally better by providing a united front, it's their money. And they may even be right. All we really care about is that they can attract the best players. And develop the best players.

When American teenagers start choosing soccer over baseball, basketball, and football scholarships then MLS will enter 4.0 and make its move towards being a real major league in America.

True. A much larger salary cap would certainly help the situation. I honestly believe that the most important thing for this league moving forward is to help out the $40k guys, or help out clubs so they're not stuck with $40k guys playing alongside millionaires. It's a problem. And I'm betting it will be addressed in the next CBA. It makes no sense to anyone (certainly anyone who follows football outside of NA) that a club with the resources to fix spots on a team, can't.

Carts
02-12-2014, 09:57 AM
I'm going to be very mad if this thread degenerates into another salary cap, relegation thread. Because every argument is already made, and I don't feel like rehashing it again.

The only argument you have from me is referring to Julian de Guzman as "big name DPs in late 20s-early 30s (in their prime)"...
I wouldn't call him a big-name, and if that was his prime - YIKES! :facepalm:

I'm just being a shit there... Excellent post...

Yohan
02-12-2014, 10:01 AM
The only argument you have from me is referring to Julian de Guzman as "big name DPs in late 20s-early 30s (in their prime)"...
I wouldn't call him a big-name, and if that was his prime - YIKES! :facepalm:

I'm just being a shit there... Excellent post...
He was the first of 20 something DPs, and for MLS in 2009, getting someone with La Liga calibre like JDG in 20s was start of a trend (even if no one made a big deal about this)

Waggy
02-12-2014, 10:05 AM
While I feel like this offseason we kicked the door down on MLS 3.0, I would say the era really started with Seattle getting Dempsey. That was the first "world class player in his 20's/early 30s coming to MLS". JDG wasn't near the same level of notoriety or class. If Dempsey doesn't come, who knows if Bradley even considers it?

Carts
02-12-2014, 10:07 AM
He was the first of 20 something DPs, and for MLS in 2009, getting someone with La Liga calibre like JDG in 20s was start of a trend (even if no one made a big deal about this)

Yohan, no need to get into this - as I wrote above "I'm just being a shit there" as it was a joke b/c everyone knows how much I "LOVED" the JDG signing & his performance here... (Especially Ageroo - the worse JDG performed the more he defended him, just to piss me off! LOL!!!)

Read this part of my post --> "Excellent post" ... g:D

Yohan
02-12-2014, 10:28 AM
While I feel like this offseason we kicked the door down on MLS 3.0, I would say the era really started with Seattle getting Dempsey. That was the first "world class player in his 20's/early 30s coming to MLS". JDG wasn't near the same level of notoriety or class. If Dempsey doesn't come, who knows if Bradley even considers it?
Robbie Keane

Yohan
02-12-2014, 10:28 AM
Yohan, no need to get into this - as I wrote above "I'm just being a shit there" as it was a joke b/c everyone knows how much I "LOVED" the JDG signing & his performance here... (Especially Ageroo - the worse JDG performed the more he defended him, just to piss me off! LOL!!!)

Read this part of my post --> "Excellent post" ... g:D
I'm not being defensive about it. But people don't appreciate JDG signing in the big MLS history picture ;)
In 2014, if you sign JDG like player on a DP contract (free agent DM, not so good top tier history, etc), you are being silly. In 2009, different story.

tfcleeds
02-12-2014, 10:32 AM
^I remember plenty of criticism on these forums about signing JDG to a DP contract, even back then. Yes, JDG was still very much in his prime, and left a sweet gig in La Liga to come back here, so in that sense I agree. But I remember there being plenty of criticism as well.

ag futbol
02-12-2014, 10:38 AM
We thought he was in his prime, but he looked crocked by the time he took the field here and it was highly suspicious he never found a deal in Spain after keeping a strong level of performance with his last club.

Long story short this club shit the bed on due diligence. We took a guy who was known literally for shooting over the net in Spain and decided to make him our playmaker based on one Gold Cup performance

Waggy
02-12-2014, 10:41 AM
Robbie Keane

He was before Dempsey? Wow. My memories of that are all messed up. I guess any way you slice it then Tim L is MLS 3.0. And largely 2.0 too.

SilverSamurai
02-12-2014, 10:45 AM
We thought he was in his prime, but he looked crocked by the time he took the field here and it was highly suspicious he never found a deal in Spain after keeping a strong level of performance with his last club.

Long story short this club shit the bed on due diligence. We took a guy who was known literally for shooting over the net in Spain and decided to make him our playmaker based on one Gold Cup perf

In JDG's defence, he was blacklisted in Spain because he spoke out about unpaid wages.
Having said that, he was shadow of his formerself when he played with TFC. Was obviously the type of player that ups his game with better players, vs. upping the game of those around him.

ag futbol
02-12-2014, 10:58 AM
In JDG's defence, he was blacklisted in Spain because he spoke out about unpaid wages.
Having said that, he was shadow of his formerself when he played with TFC. Was obviously the type of player that ups his game with better players, vs. upping the game of those around him.
I heard that too, but in hindsight I think it's not necessarily a sticking point. Other players spoke out as well but they managed to find clubs.

I'm sure he could have returned to Germany based on his prior reputation there and his form in La Liga. It shouldn't have been difficult for him to find work with a pretty good club.

Detroit_TFC
02-12-2014, 11:13 AM
JDG certainly wasn't the first DP to underperform. Looking at the list of past and current DPs, a common sense "player had substantial positive affect" percentage would be what, 60%, 70% maybe.

That said, the current list of DPs are generally are living up to billing. That's good.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_Player_Rule

OgtheDim
02-14-2014, 06:38 PM
Today's events seem to herald 3.0 even more. In particular, the professionalism of Cesar towards winning. This is not a guy coming over here to take a pay cheque only and slowly work his way towards retirement. He intends on winning in MLS this season.

Shakes McQueen
02-14-2014, 07:01 PM
The JDG signing was considered a big step forward for MLS at the time, because it was the first time a DP slot was used to bring back a player who was arguably still in his "prime". Before then, it was 100% old guys getting one last big payday.

- Scott

Red CB Toronto
02-14-2014, 07:04 PM
Today's events seem to herald 3.0 even more. In particular, the professionalism of Cesar towards winning. This is not a guy coming over here to take a pay cheque only and slowly work his way towards retirement. He intends on winning in MLS this season.

Well he is not coming over here to take a big pay check as he already he one, a pretty sizeable one I must say. But regardless of that, I really like the way he presented himself today, great to see. I still can not believe the Reds could very well have the reining World Cup champion in net come August. Unreal but amazing.

SilverSamurai
02-16-2014, 02:32 PM
I heard that too, but in hindsight I think it's not necessarily a sticking point. Other players spoke out as well but they managed to find clubs.

I'm sure he could have returned to Germany based on his prior reputation there and his form in La Liga. It shouldn't have been difficult for him to find work with a pretty good club.

In theory, yes, but he doesn't have an EU/UK passport, which is the biggest factor limiting employability.
The other players didn't really have that issue to contend with. But maybe he should have returned to Germany? Who knows?

Pookie
02-16-2014, 03:39 PM
I think the key to 3.0 will be whether teams are comfortable operating at losses in order to ultimately raise the value of the franchise.

Using Forbes data, in 2008 TFC generated $17M in revenue and posted an operating income of $2.1M. In 2012, revenue had jumped to $30.9M but operating profits didn't grow at the same pace, posting $4.5M in profit.

Expenses in 2014 have risen substantially. All reports suggest at least $11M per season in salaries paid by the team. That doesn't include transfer fees.

With no new local TV deal, revenues will largely be a function of increased gate receipts.

It's quite possible that TFC will operate at a loss over the next few years. Is this sustainable? Will other teams follow suit?

PopePouri
02-16-2014, 04:47 PM
Are they really operating at a loss if they're under the MLSE umbrella though? All the costs will most likely be recouped elsewhere.

Alonso
02-16-2014, 04:47 PM
I think the key to 3.0 will be whether teams are comfortable operating at losses in order to ultimately raise the value of the franchise.

Using Forbes data, in 2008 TFC generated $17M in revenue and posted an operating income of $2.1M. In 2012, revenue had jumped to $30.9M but operating profits didn't grow at the same pace, posting $4.5M in profit.

Expenses in 2014 have risen substantially. All reports suggest at least $11M per season in salaries paid by the team. That doesn't include transfer fees.

With no new local TV deal, revenues will largely be a function of increased gate receipts.

It's quite possible that TFC will operate at a loss over the next few years. Is this sustainable? Will other teams follow suit?

In this market, it is more than sustainable in my opinion.

A few winning seasons, coupled with 30,000 seat capacity, and bigger take at the gate. Also increased tv revenue for our tv owners, and you have your money back no problem.

If they do what should have been done at the beginning with TFC, I think Tim Lieweke is dead right when he says that soccer in this market would be king if not for hockey.

Abou Sky
02-16-2014, 05:18 PM
Great topic and post, IMO this is more of MLS 2.1 (2.5/2.9???)

If 2.0 was starting to bring in big names and keep some talent in NA, 2.1 is rounding that out with younger big names and more talent kept in NA

Point is, we may be leading INTO 3.0, but 2014 won't be year 1 of it. IMO 3.0 is seeing 2-3 'top flight' quality international players but not 'big names' on every team. Guys that play in Copa Del Rey /Europa League/FA Cup games etc. but not the quality of regular day in/day out starters for top flight teams.

I think that there is also the issue of some teams being SOOOOO far in front of other teams that it is silly.

In Tucson I got to see a friendly between the Sounders and Timbers and each team had about 200-250 supporters come out for a 'pre-pre season friendly' Then there are teams that are REALLY good like Houston who I got to see play earlier and I think I may have counted 10-15 jerseys in the entire stadium. Houston, although far from Tucson, can be driven in a day (long day, but a day) Seattle and Portland, 2 long days.

We will see how things go, I would LOVE to see MLS be a 'top flight league' by 2020 but I just don't see it as a lot of teams are still in MLS 1.0 mode (survival)

Richard
02-16-2014, 05:40 PM
A few things need to happen for 3.0 imo.

1. Eliminate the stupid transfer fee applying to cap hit. Its the #1 reason we are struggling to keep Laba, other than the DP slots. MLS will only really start to attract good quality young players if this is removed, there is to much of a penalty to pay a fee then salary for a promising player.

2. Eliminate DP slots. Implement a much higher soft cap with a luxury tax, low income teams get whatever luxury money is available.

3. Time to fold or force sell useless franchises with shitty owners like the Kraft family. MLS needs to start muscling their owners to get serious or sell.

4. In my opinion we are not into 3.0 until we see complete transparency regarding the rules, the league still acts like its 1996 thinking people wont care what rules get bent or made up on the fly.

Pookie
02-16-2014, 05:51 PM
Are they really operating at a loss if they're under the MLSE umbrella though? All the costs will most likely be recouped elsewhere.

That's the question of the day isn't it?

If going forward, MLSE is willing to subsidize an annual operating loss then we may see Defoe replaced with another name once he retires.

If MLSE expects all of its properties to be profitable, then we may not.

An interesting component to this is whether any of these offseason moves result in better TV ratings and coverage within the mainstream media. If yes, the gamble may pay off. If not, I'm not sure how sustainable this spending is going to be.

If the MLSE Board is willing to underwrite a loss, then this might be moot. Somehow, I don't think they are.

Andy TFC
02-16-2014, 09:56 PM
A few things need to happen for 3.0 imo.

1. Eliminate the stupid transfer fee applying to cap hit. Its the #1 reason we are struggling to keep Laba, other than the DP slots. MLS will only really start to attract good quality young players if this is removed, there is to much of a penalty to pay a fee then salary for a promising player.

2. Eliminate DP slots. Implement a much higher soft cap with a luxury tax, low income teams get whatever luxury money is available.

3. Time to fold or force sell useless franchises with shitty owners like the Kraft family. MLS needs to start muscling their owners to get serious or sell.

4. In my opinion we are not into 3.0 until we see complete transparency regarding the rules, the league still acts like its 1996 thinking people wont care what rules get bent or made up on the fly.
I agree with all of the above points.

Detroit_TFC
02-16-2014, 11:27 PM
^ The league sometimes sees itself as merely an administrator and other times it asserts itself as the ultimate owner of player contracts. MLS 3.0 for me is when the rules evolve into a stable, flexible mode that gives the individual teams substantial discretion in roster selection, contract terms and interaction with other MLS teams. Whether or not that can be achieved within the single entity legal framework is going to be a debate we'll see more and more of in the near future.

There will be some who want to preserve single entity as a permanent feature of the league and others who see it as a historical form of organization with decreasing utility as the league grows.

tfcocd
02-16-2014, 11:45 PM
^ The league sometimes sees itself as merely an administrator and other times it asserts itself as the ultimate owner of player contracts. MLS 3.0 for me is when the rules evolve into a stable, flexible mode that gives the individual teams substantial discretion in roster selection, contract terms and interaction with other MLS teams. Whether or not that can be achieved within the single entity legal framework is going to be a debate we'll see more and more of in the near future.

There will be some who want to preserve single entity as a permanent feature of the league and others who see it as a historical form of organization with decreasing utility as the league grows.

One question I have about the TFC roster is which player is rated as the 'discovery' signing? Is there a transfer fee threshold where Young DP status is required as opposed to 'discovery' status for a player?

Detroit_TFC
02-17-2014, 09:56 AM
Each year the roster rules lists a maximum salary amount (for 2013 it was $368,750, 2014 not published yet). The transfer fee is typically split up over the duration of the contract and adds to the salary amount. If its over the max amount, it has to either be paid down with allocation funds or a DP slot used.

Each team gets six discovery claims which a team can use to call dibs on a player that isn't required to go through one of the various lottery mechanisms, eg you can't put a discovery claim on a current USMNT international, if they come back they typically would go through an allocation lottery unless they don't (Dempsey and Bradley). I don't think being a discovery signing has any different salary status attached to it, just on the basis of being a discovery signing.