Possible MLS Alignments and Growth

[Initial B]

The addition of Orlando FC has got me thinking (always a dangerous thing) - what would be an ideal alignment of teams and conferences, and how far can you take growing MLS? CSN has an interesting article on a possible realignment, but I have a hunch that there will be a third team in place for 2015.
Garber has been saying he wants 24 teams in the league, 12 per conference with home-and-away in conference, 1/2 home-1/2 away out of conference plus playoffs. I don't see him stopping there. He'll add more teams if he could get away with it. I started thinking about the combinations of teams and how seasons and playoffs would work. The limitations were that the season had to be 34 games and the playoff format would not change. This is what I came up with:

28 teams:
Conferences: 4 with 7 teams each. (East, South, West, North-West?)
Games: home and away in-conference, 1/2 home and 1/2 away with other conferences, 1 extra game with derby rival.
Playoffs: Play-in game between 2nd and 3rd place teams in each conference. Winner of play-in plays top team in another conference. Semis, then Finals. Teams from same conference cannot play each other until finals.

30 teams:
Conferences: 5 with 6 teams each.
Games: home and away in-conference, 1/2 home and 1/2 away with other conferences.
Playoffs: Play-in game between 2nd place teams in each conference and the best 3rd place team in league. Enter home and away knockout round format with Seeding based on points total. 3 rounds. Teams from same conference cannot play each other until finals.

36 teams:
Conferences: 2 with 18 teams each.
Games: home and away in-conference, No games with other conference except East-West (or should that be North-South? National-American?) All-Star game and MLS Cup teams.
Playoffs: Play-offs as current 2013 format.

Over 36 teams:
Two leagues: MLS-A, MLS-B
MLS-A: 2 Conferences of 12 Teams each, East and West, home and away in-conference, 1/2 home and 1/2 away with other conferences. Does not play MLS-B teams.
MLS-B: 2 Conferences of at least 7 Teams each, East and West, 34 games. Does not play MLS-A teams.
Playoffs: MLS-A Play-offs as current 2013 format.
MLS-B has top four teams in each conference play bottom four teams in their corresponding MLS-A conference in a home and away series. Each series winner plays in MLS-A next season, the loser plays in MLS-B next season. As number of MLS-B teams goes up, increase number of promotion-demotion games to match to a total of 6 (maybe).

Over 60 teams:
Three leagues: MLS-A (24 teams), MLS-B (24 teams), MLS-C (The rest - Incorporate NASL?)...
Rinse and repeat.

Now, you could start dividing MLS into A and B leagues at 36 teams, with two 18-team leagues that play home-and-away within each league, but I worry that introducing promotion/demotion at that stage might drive away North American fans not used to that system. This might also be the point where MLS starts raising the Salary Cap for MLS A above that of MLS B or changing the number of designated players allowed.

Personally, I'm okay with about 48 teams in an A-B set-up, each with two 12-team conferences. But that's probably a long way in the future.

What do you guys think would work for alignments and growth?

[MartinUtd]

Either the on field quality is going to take a hit or teams will start going bankrupt. Garber better hurry up and find a TV contract because pretty soon he won't be able to Vince Mcmahon his way out of this vortex.

[nonc]

I believe 24 teams is ideal, it is important to play everyone in your league. I think they will expand beyond that though, but I'm not looking forward to it. Second Division needs beefing up and I think there's a sustainable market for it across USA and Canada, a lot of cities could do it, NASL could easily be 18 teams five years after MLS hits 24.

[cmonyoureds]

I'm in favor of most set-ups that would involve promotion/relegation. The MLS A and MLS B approach.
The league/owners would never agree however.

[Dreadlocks]

Promotion/Relegation will never happen here. No owner who forks out $50M will be willing to play in a second tier - ever!

I see the possibility of a farm or affiliate system though.

[PopePouri]

24 is enough. If Garber is all about being one of the top leagues, you can't consistently dilute the talent available.

[Derko]

24 Teams, double salary cap, 4 DP's per team, improve officiating.

[MartinUtd]

Promotion/Relegation will never happen here. No owner who forks out $50M will be willing to play in a second tier - ever!

I see the possibility of a farm or affiliate system though.

As franchise owners, would they really have a say in the matter? I keep hearing that the owners would push back and I'm sure they would. But if MLS wanted tiered leagues, what's really stopping them assuming a viable (TV) revenue source is in place?

[Yohan]

As franchise owners, would they really have a say in the matter? I keep hearing that the owners would push back and I'm sure they would. But if MLS wanted tiered leagues, what's really stopping them assuming a viable (TV) revenue source is in place?
of course they would. MLS FO would never do something without consent of the investor owners, otherwise the word would spread and potential investors for expansion teams or buyers for current teams won't come.

one reason why there are a lot of people jumping on the MLS bandwagon right now is because MLS bends over backwards to accommodate investors.

[Initial B]

Promotion/Relegation will never happen here. No owner who forks out $50M will be willing to play in a second tier - ever!
I could see MLS saying that both an A and B league were both First Division Leagues, just divided into "Tier 1" and "Tier 2". At least until North American fans became used to the concept. I think the trick to make this palateable to fans is to have a high level of churn between Tier1 and Tier 2. Having the bottom half of the MLS-A teams having to play off against the top half of MLS-B teams to decide which tier each team plays in the next season. It would probably make for good tv ratings.

At some point they may even entertain a cheaper expansion buy-in for NASL teams that wanted to join MLS at Tier 2, or just buy out the whole league.

[ag futbol]

As franchise owners, would they really have a say in the matter? I keep hearing that the owners would push back and I'm sure they would. But if MLS wanted tiered leagues, what's really stopping them assuming a viable (TV) revenue source is in place?
This is one of those Ace Ventura Einhorn is finkle, Finkle is Einhorn, Einhorn is a man moments. The league is the clubs, the clubs are the league. League won't tell the clubs they are having promotion and relegation because the league is there to do whatever the collective wants.

Promotion and relegation is not a realistic option from a business perspective. The chance of having a key market sitting in the second division doesn't fly. It's also destructive to the rebuilding process and allowing teams to develop talent. I'll bet that certain leagues in europe will do away with the concept before MLS would ever adopt it. It's a relic of a different era that's entrenched in other places, but not here.

[prizby]

It's also destructive to the rebuilding process and allowing teams to develop talent.

just want to point out (because I follow BVB) that Shinji Kagawa came from a J-League 2 team, in fact 3 of the players on the national team this past break play on J-League 2 teams...and looking at the roster of european based players, another two players transferred to European based teams off of J-League 2 teams.

[Haddy]

Promotion and relegation is not a realistic option from a business perspective.

Not right now. Plus the broadcast partners won't be interested.

[Beach_Red]

of course they would. MLS FO would never do something without consent of the investor owners, otherwise the word would spread and potential investors for expansion teams or buyers for current teams won't come.

one reason why there are a lot of people jumping on the MLS bandwagon right now is because MLS bends over backwards to accommodate investors.

Or maybe the main reason? Is there any chance MLSE would have spent any money on a team if it wasn't also investing in the league? Toronto had a successful NASL team but when the league died so did the team. There's no value in a single team if the league folds.

[ag futbol]

just want to point out (because I follow BVB) that Shinji Kagawa came from a J-League 2 team, in fact 3 of the players on the national team this past break play on J-League 2 teams...and looking at the roster of european based players, another two players transferred to European based teams off of J-League 2 teams.
Fair, but my point isn’t that a d2 club has never developed players. It’s that the system as a whole would be better at developing players if it was provided with greater stability.

[MartinUtd]

This is one of those Ace Ventura Einhorn is finkle, Finkle is Einhorn, Einhorn is a man moments. The league is the clubs, the clubs are the league. League won't tell the clubs they are having promotion and relegation because the league is there to do whatever the collective wants.

Promotion and relegation is not a realistic option from a business perspective. The chance of having a key market sitting in the second division doesn't fly. It's also destructive to the rebuilding process and allowing teams to develop talent. I'll bet that certain leagues in europe will do away with the concept before MLS would ever adopt it. It's a relic of a different era that's entrenched in other places, but not here.

All good points, but you can tell with all this attention Don Garber has a real hard on for expansion. Eventually it's just not going to work anymore and I doubt he'll stop at 24 teams if he still smells a buck or two coming. He's going to have to figure out a way forward and what Don wants, Don gets. I think he threw his slow and steady expansion model out the window when he decided to expand past 16 teams.

[Beach_Red]

All good points, but you can tell with all this attention Don Garber has a real hard on for expansion. Eventually it's just not going to work anymore and I doubt he'll stop at 24 teams if he still smells a buck or two coming. He's going to have to figure out a way forward and what Don wants, Don gets. I think he threw his slow and steady expansion model out the window when he decided to expand past 16 teams.

What Don wants is the NFL.

[MartinUtd]

Too bad "soccerbowl" is already taken

[Initial B]

What Don wants is the NFL.

32 teams would require 4 conferences like my 28-team model, but would require 38 games (the equivalent of an EPL season). I don't think there are enough weekend and mid-week dates that can be used to make up for the international breaks, CONCACAF Champions League dates, National Tournaments, and the playoffs.

[OgtheDim]

I think Don wants the NFL money, not the teams.

There isn't the talent pool to justify a 32 team league.

[Beach_Red]

I think Don wants the NFL money, not the teams.

There isn't the talent pool to justify a 32 team league.

Yes, I just meant he was brought in from the NFL to set up the same league structure for MLS. Or as close as he can.

[Shway]

If the MLS were to expand past 24 teams, I think they would have to create another competition, because a 4% chance of a team winning the MLS cup is way too low for a nation that is still considered to be growing the sport.

[Pint]

If the MLS were to expand past 24 teams, I think they would have to create another competition, because a 4% chance of a team winning the MLS cup is way too low for a nation that is still considered to be growing the sport.

if they expand to 24 then they would likely need to add team to the playoff structure (either 6 per conference like the NFL or 8 per like the NHL/NBA). That or creating regional tournaments leading into a league cup of some sort.

[Initial B]

The problem with the league is that you have a limited playoff window at the end of the regular season before the weather becomes too cold to play outside in the northern climates and people start thinking about Christmas. I could see a 24-team league playoff structure where the play-in round occurs between 4th-5th places and 3rd-6th place teams. That would be half the league, but I wouldn't want to dilute the meaning of the regular season any more than that.

As for promotion/relegation I could see it working if MLS asks for a franchise fee from the annual Champion NASL team of around $50 million, of which half might be given to the relegated team as compensation for being kicked out of MLS. If the champion team can't pay it, then no promotion/relegation occurs.

[habstfc]

24 teams is way too much. 20 I think is the maximum this continent can support. Only half the teams in mls make money apparently, why would anyone want to invest in a losing venture.

[prizby]

24 teams is way too much. 20 I think is the maximum this continent can support. Only half the teams in mls make money apparently, why would anyone want to invest in a losing venture.

6 years ago only 3 teams were making money; so basically every year, one more team starts to make money...that's not bad; and you can discount a team like NYRB who right off an loss as a marketing cost

there is one glaring issue and only one issue with 24 teams; weakened talent pool

[Cashcleaner]

My prediction - The league will expand to a full 24 clubs with no significant change in competitive format aside from playoffs. However, I think we are eventually going to find ourselves in financially unstable situation where certain teams will be moving from city to city every few years or perhaps folding outright and replacement franchises coming in after their departure.

A 20-team league that we will have with NYCFC will work in that the talent pool isn't too diluted, the major markets in Canada and the US are represented, and a traditional home-away schedule is completely doable. But once you bring in more clubs, the landscape starts to change dramatically and I have my doubts it will be for the better. Like Priz said, a shallow talent pool is one potentially concerning factor out of many.

[Shway]

I don't think the talent pool will be as shallow/diluted as many think it will be in the coming years. With the rise and focus of academies producing better HG talents and young players opting for MLS academies over independent ones, I think MLS will get to appoint where the best young north american talent is in the MLS, and every team has at least 2 starters who are HG's or are impact players that are able to contribute on a weekly basis. You see this in the likes of Yedlin, Hamid, Villarreal, Fagundez, Teibert, O'Neil Agudelo*...

I think the greater problem would be the salary cap, over the dilution of talent...but there's already a thread for that

[MartinUtd]

It's true that the lower threshold of talent is much better now than it was when TFC entered the league. Now, one could argue that it's a result of the focus on academies and growing popularity among the younger generation or... it could simply be a result of raising the minimum threshold from $15k to $30-35k.

Then again, I look back at the 2007 salary numbers and I see Braz at $67k, Reda at $100k, and Welsh at $195k - and it 2008 we had Ricketts at $200k, Ruiz at $350k, and Sutton at $150k. I think we're just shit at getting value for money and it doesn't matter what the salary cap was at.

Either way I'd take Doniel Henry over Marco Velez any day, so maybe we filling out the lower ranks won't be so hard.

[Initial B]

The US has as much population as Germany, Italy, Great Britain, Spain, and France combined. I don't think MLS will have a problem with talent dilution with a mere 24 teams when the combined european first divisions hold over 4 times that amount. In a couple of years MLS could easily hold 32 teams. In fact, 30-32 seems to be the range at which all the North American major league sports operate in (NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB).

Your right about the NFL set up being possible: 2 conferences with 4 divisions of 4 teams each, playing intradivisional home-and-away and interdivisional 1/2-home-1/2-away would be a 34-game season. Playoffs would be top 2 in each division playing a 1-game play-in round, followed by Conference Semi-finals and finals, followed by a final home-at-home matchup (or neutral venue single game) between the two conference champions.

[Cashcleaner]

^ Surely you're not simply comparing populations and basing an argument on that. Sure, there are over 350 million Yanks and Canadians on the continent here, but out of that many, how many are soccer fans or potential soccer fans? In Europe, football is a sport with no significant competition; whereas MLS has to fight with the NFL, Major League Baseball, NHL, and NBA for the public's hard-earned disposable incomes. The milder climates in Europe are conducive to outdoor sports being played year-round, while here we tend to have longer and more severe winters - giving certain cities a probable disadvantage in terms of attendance.

If the landscape for soccer in North America is so ripe for expansion and could accommodate as many clubs as you believe, the league would already be at 32 teams. It's not, and that's because there are a multitude of factors involved here.

[Shway]

30-32 teams in a few years......that would most definitely result in talent dilution. By my calculations that would mean there would be an additional 330 professional players to the league.

The part that is being left is that when the MLS grows the NASL & USL have to grow in parallel that's what enlarges the talent pool, believe it or not