Garber: MLS expansion near top of agenda

[Haddy]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/mls/garber-mls-expansion-near-top-of-agenda/

I understand that MLS sure does love those expansion fees. But at what point is too much? A small part of me wanted expansion to stop at 20 to create a really high demand. But I get that we're talking about a much bigger land mass than usual.

I'll be realistic and say they'll hit 24 no problem. That could coincide with Garber's 2022 prophecy of a top league. But I truly hope it stops there.

Let the NASL, USL and nameless Canadian league(s) pick up the slack.

[Super]

I'm definitely against further expansion. I fear that we'll only water down the talent pool even more than at present, and it'll mean tougher odds for everybody to win anything. I think the better move would be to move teams from failing markets to better ones (Chivas is one such example). However, if a city comes knocking with another 100 million dollars and promise of a brand new stadium, then yeah, that's not going to drag the league down for sure.

[ensco]

How long do dogs lick their balls? Answer below...

They play lip service to the 20 team limit, it keeps the purists calm, but I think it's a ruse.

There are 30+ teams in the other major NA sports.

Answer: They'll keep going as long as they can.

[billyfly]

Would there be a Canadian addition?

[OgtheDim]

The Nuck fks make it 20.

I can see Miami, and Orlando, although they are not making friends in MLS management and didn't get the arena deal they thought they were going to get.

Then I suspect an outlier like San Antonio, a team in the west with just too much support to not get a team.

And another Mid West team, like Minneapolis St. Paul.

There's your 24.

After that, the road to 30 would go through

Indy, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Sacramento, Atlanta, Tampa, Phoenix, St. Louis, Calgary (more likely to financially support a team long term then Edmonton), San Fran, or any other city with more money then sense

As for teams with current issues:

Chivas is more likely to be resold and move within the LA area.

NE just needs new owners. I can't see MLS giving up on that area.

I must admit, I have no idea how Columbus makes money. Consistently under perform, in a small market, with little growth potential. I suppose that's why the Hunts are, its rumoured, finally bringing in some local ownership tomorrow. I could see them moving in 5 years, probably to a Southern city like Atlanta.

Dallas has a nice arena far from where anybody lives.

[Richard]

I think 20 is perfect but 24 is doable as well. I would rather MLS increase the cap and quality of play immensely before they even think about going to 30.

[MartinUtd]

I think 20 is perfect but 24 is doable as well. I would rather MLS increase the cap and quality of play immensely before they even think about going to 30.

I have to agree with you here. And to add to that, how many times are we going to beat the Florida dead horse? Maybe, just maybe Orlando will get in. But Tampa and Miami as well? North Carolina could be suitable, but Atlanta seems to have problems supporting teams, I'm pretty sure it would be the second coming of FC Dallas: A big city with no transit system and an unwillingness to secure premium real estate for a soccer team. North Cali won't get another team as San Jose is poised to move into their new stadium and I doubt MLS wants to siphon off fans so soon. That leaves the southwest and the midwest and San Antonio notwithstanding, its a craps shoot on any choice between Phoenix and Detroit.

[Haddy]

Don't forget Detroit. Privately funded stadium offered, sort of.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/silverdome-owner-hopes-to-bring-mls-to-detroit/

[Cashcleaner]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/mls/garber-mls-expansion-near-top-of-agenda/

I understand that MLS sure does love those expansion fees. But at what point is too much? A small part of me wanted expansion to stop at 20 to create a really high demand. But I get that we're talking about a much bigger land mass than usual.

I'll be realistic and say they'll hit 24 no problem. That could coincide with Garber's 2022 prophecy of a top league. But I truly hope it stops there.

Let the NASL, USL and nameless Canadian league(s) pick up the slack.

20 teams for me is the magic number for several reasons - it leaves the talent pool fairly undiluted, it encourages support on a regional level, and it stops expansion being a primary economic driver for the league.

Now, 24 clubs is definitely doable for MLS, but I know we can kiss any possibility of a balance home/away schedule goodbye with 24 teams in competition. I'm probably not what people would consider a strict purist when it comes to soccer, but for me a balanced schedule is something we really should strive for as the current playoff format and plethora of extra-league tournaments makes more individual matches all that more important to win.


I'm definitely against further expansion. I fear that we'll only water down the talent pool even more than at present, and it'll mean tougher odds for everybody to win anything. I think the better move would be to move teams from failing markets to better ones (Chivas is one such example). However, if a city comes knocking with another 100 million dollars and promise of a brand new stadium, then yeah, that's not going to drag the league down for sure.

I definitely agree the league needs to seriously look at the chronically under-performing teams and figure out exit strategies for those franchises. There's little sense in my mind of granting a franchise to Sacramento or San Diego while Chivas in Los Angeles continues to struggle.


How long do dogs lick their balls? Answer below...

They play lip service to the 20 team limit, it keeps the purists calm, but I think it's a ruse.

There are 30+ teams in the other major NA sports.

Answer: They'll keep going as long as they can.

My worst fear is that you will be proven to be right on this. I have a bad feeling that as long as the league can demand huge franchise fees and people continue to pay them, there is no limit to expansion.


Would there be a Canadian addition?

I have my doubts, but if the league wanted a fourth Canadian club, Calgary and Ottawa would make the most sense to me.

[habstfc]

There are at least five teams not being supported right now. Dallas, Colorado Columbus, chivas and new england. Sort them out first or move some of them. Chicago isn't exactly packing them in either.

[Fort York Redcoat]

There are at least five teams not being supported right now. Dallas, Colorado Columbus, chivas and new england. Sort them out first or move some of them. Chicago isn't exactly packing them in either.

It's all relative. Anywhere else in the world this would take of itself but with rev share/ single entity propping these cities are fine (minus Chivas). I feel sorry for the small but great support that devote so much effort to a failing cause.

[sashavukelich]

There are at least five teams not being supported right now. Dallas, Colorado Columbus, chivas and new england. Sort them out first or move some of them. Chicago isn't exactly packing them in either.

Having been to a NE Revs game, they still get about 14k to their games, no way they move. Also their ownership are looking for a downtown boston site for a SSS.

Dallas, also better supported than people think. Chivas for me....they gotta go. I say remake Chivas into "LA Espanyol" and make it a inclusive team open to anyone with Latino heritage of any kind (and us north americans)

[brad]

20 teams for me is the magic number for several reasons - it leaves the talent pool fairly undiluted, it encourages support on a regional level, and it stops expansion being a primary economic driver for the league.

Now, 24 clubs is definitely doable for MLS, but I know we can kiss any possibility of a balance home/away schedule goodbye with 24 teams in competition. I'm probably not what people would consider a strict purist when it comes to soccer, but for me a balanced schedule is something we really should strive for as the current playoff format and plethora of extra-league tournaments makes more individual matches all that more important to win.

As the number of teams increase, I think we will increasingly see a focus on the conferences and East will play West a lot less frequently. The purist in me would like a balanced schedule. However, decreasing the amount of travel might have a positive impact on the quality of the league overall. We are a fairly unique league in regards to the amount of distance teams need to cover.




I definitely agree the league needs to seriously look at the chronically under-performing teams and figure out exit strategies for those franchises. There's little sense in my mind of granting a franchise to Sacramento or San Diego while Chivas in Los Angeles continues to struggle.

So long as they keep their paws off one chronically under-performing team North of the Border :) (I know you meant financially, and we are in a better state than a lot of other teams - but couldn't resist)




My worst fear is that you will be proven to be right on this. I have a bad feeling that as long as the league can demand huge franchise fees and people continue to pay them, there is no limit to expansion.

I think this is the case. The other thing to consider is that the real money is in TV, having entire markets unrepresented by a team can hurt there. The national networks are going to be far more interested in a league that has coverage across the major markets as opposed to missing a bunch of them.


I have my doubts, but if the league wanted a fourth Canadian club, Calgary and Ottawa would make the most sense to me.

Garber has said recently that another team in Canada is not a focus. I'm sure his head would turn if someone ponied up a stadium and expansion fee though. I suspect that Canada is not a priority is Canadian teams won't help him with TV deals with US networks. I also suspect that having Canadian teams make a run in the playoffs is probably a nightmare for him (an All Canadian MLS Cup final would be a ratings nightmare).

[Oldtimer]

I can't see another Canadian team. I think D-2 (NASL) or a Canadian D-3 league is the way to go for smaller markets.

I also don't see 30 teams. If anything, one of the huge differences between MLS and the old NASL is how they treated expansion. I expect slow growth to 24. Anything more than that would be moving into marginal markets.

[Globetrotter]

I dreamed of the day that we could say we finished 24th in the league.

[prizby]

I must admit, I have no idea how Columbus makes money. Consistently under perform, in a small market, with little growth potential. I suppose that's why the Hunts are, its rumoured, finally bringing in some local ownership tomorrow. I could see them moving in 5 years, probably to a Southern city like Atlanta.


revenue sharing


------------------------


24 teams could almost make a 'balanced' schedule

2 conferences of 12 = play everyone in your own conference twice (22 games) and play everyone in the other conference once (12 games) = 34 games

Why can't MLS expand like the J-League did and just create a 2nd division? the talent difference isn't too much (Shinji Kawgawa came from a 2nd division team straight to Dortmund)...I don't see why they can't follow the way Japan has grown its league as a way to do things over here.

[kodiakTFC]

I've always liked the idea of a 24 team league with two conferences of 12. You play home and away versus your own conference and you play the other conference once (half home, half away). This works out to that magic MLS number of 34 games.

[Mark in Ottawa]

24 teams could almost make a 'balanced' schedule

2 conferences of 12 = play everyone in your own conference twice (22 games) and play everyone in the other conference once (12 games) = 34 games
This seems like the most logical scheme to start with.
Allow smaller markets the time to build NASL teams and fan following at the same time.

And then somewhere down the road institute a North American FA Cup and way down the road ...
Cross League Promotion/Relegation with the financial transfer/cushions built in.

[prizby]

This seems like the most logical scheme to start with.
Allow smaller markets the time to build NASL teams and fan following at the same time.

And then somewhere down the road institute a North American FA Cup and way down the road ...
Cross League Promotion/Relegation with the financial transfer/cushions built in.

i don't think NASL will be the 2nd division...MLS will create their own 2nd division...don't think there will be a north american FA Cup either; not with the US Open Cup

[Mark in Ottawa]

i don't think NASL will be the 2nd division...MLS will create their own 2nd division...don't think there will be a north american FA Cup either; not with the US Open Cup
That's ok. If MLS starts there own second div. it will probably end up with the strongest/best established clubs from the NASL.

The US Open Cup can generate a US "Champ" and here in Canada we can start up a more inclusive version of the Nutralite or Voyageurs Cup to determine our national Champ.

Then a North American cup game would seem a natural.

[Haddy]

HI say remake Chivas into "LA Espanyol" and make it a inclusive team open to anyone with Latino heritage of any kind (and us north americans)

Ya that is still discrimination. Not gonna fly.


This seems like the most logical scheme to start with.
Allow smaller markets the time to build NASL teams and fan following at the same time.

And then somewhere down the road institute a North American FA Cup and way down the road ...
Cross League Promotion/Relegation with the financial transfer/cushions built in.

North America is still years and years away from appreciating the relegation / promotion concept. In a culture that typically pays to watch scoring and success, relegation is a death sentence for a franchise. One day, I'd love to see it. But not for a couple decades if ever.

[prizby]

North America is still years and years away from appreciating the relegation / promotion concept. In a culture that typically pays to watch scoring and success, relegation is a death sentence for a franchise. One day, I'd love to see it. But not for a couple decades if ever.

japan didn't have promotion/relegation until jleague 2

they got a 2nd division running in 7 years; we are way behind the ball here

[Fort York Redcoat]

japan didn't have promotion/relegation until jleague 2

they got a 2nd division running in 7 years; we are way behind the ball here

Japan. North America. You really don't see the difference?

http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/asia/japan/map_of_japan.jpg


http://bunker33.com/learning/15/map-of-usa-and-canada-border-i6.gif

[TOBOR !]

Due to the size of North America, an MLS construct of two divisions with promotion / relegation would still need to be done with East / West conferences in mind.

Say, clubs move up and down between East 1 and East 2, with the same going on in the West. Table toppers of West 1 and East 1 play for all the marbles at the end of the year.

[Fort York Redcoat]

Due to the size of North America, an MLS construct of two divisions with promotion / relegation would still need to be done with East / West conferences in mind.

Say, clubs move up and down between East 1 and East 2, with the same going on in the West. Table toppers of West 1 and East 1 play for all the marbles at the end of the year.

And 20 owners (well a little less than 20) agreeing to possible relegation. Imagine the above teams attendance...

Not that I'd stand in the way of promo/rel. I prefer it as well.

[Haddy]

There are at least five teams not being supported right now. Dallas, Colorado Columbus, chivas and new england. Sort them out first or move some of them. Chicago isn't exactly packing them in either.

The first four teams you mentioned seem to suffer from misguided ownership while the Revs suffer from that as well as a lack of a good stadium.

But Columbus is announcing a new owner today. So with the league's health in mind, here's hoping they turn things around.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/07/30/hunt-family-sells-columbus-crew-precourt-sports-ventures

[brad]

And 20 owners (well a little less than 20) agreeing to possible relegation. Imagine the above teams attendance...

Not that I'd stand in the way of promo/rel. I prefer it as well.

And the potential drop in revenue from sponsors & TV being less interested in 2nd tier football. I can't see the MLS wanting two tiers. How does it benefit them?

[PopePouri]

The first four teams you mentioned seem to suffer from misguided ownership while the Revs suffer from that as well as a lack of a good stadium.

But Columbus is announcing a new owner today. So with the league's health in mind, here's hoping they turn things around.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/07/30/hunt-family-sells-columbus-crew-precourt-sports-ventures

Possible move elsewhere on the horizon for the Crew?

[TOBOR !]

Possible move elsewhere on the horizon for the Crew?

Hmm.. if not a move to the Bay Area, at least a rebranding has to be on the table.

[PopePouri]

It was my first thought when they announced the news. I doubt they'll be able to grow the Crew brand in a place like Columbus and even a rebrand will only draw a handful.

Unless, they invest heavily in a downtown stadium with all the bells and whistles and rethink their season ticket prices which I highly doubt.

[Oldtimer]

Possible move elsewhere on the horizon for the Crew?

They will probably try to do a KC-style turnaround instead (would include a new name). Their supporters and their FO both are really a problem instead of an asset. They need to attract new blood.... badly.

If it fails the team will need to be moved.

[Detroit_TFC]

Pro/reg will continue to be a fringe discussion because it is simply not necessary to the business model right now. After the league gets to 24 or 30 and there are still rich guys waving $150-200 million checks (by that time) then MLS will start considering how to accommodate pro/reg. And they sure as hell will try to think of a way to sell MLS Premier and MLS Championship (or whatever) as co-equal, not pro/reg even though that is exactly what it would be.

[backbeat]

Possible move elsewhere on the horizon for the Crew?

I'd love to see the Crew moved to Ottawa or Hamilton - Bill Archer would have a conniption g:D

[OgtheDim]

The Hunts getting out of being involved in Columbus is a good first step; they have been running on fumes MLS wise after Lamar Hunt died. From the looks of things, new ownership has no real sports management experience and is going to try to make a go of it in Columbus.

If I was a Crew supporter, I'd be worried.

[ManUtd4ever]

They will probably try to do a KC-style turnaround instead (would include a new name). Their supporters and their FO both are really a problem instead of an asset. They need to attract new blood.... badly.

If it fails the team will need to be moved.

I certainly wouldn't lose any sleep if that came to pass. There are several other viable North American markets that would support an MLS club accordingly if given the opportunity.

[pdogg]

And they sure as hell will try to think of a way to sell MLS Premier and MLS Championship (or whatever) as co-equal, not pro/reg even though that is exactly what it would be.

Exactly - Just do the old switcheroo - instead of installing a lower league and demoting teams, create a higher league and promote the initial teams up! It's so ridiculous it might just work!

[Super]

The problem with a relegation system is that the current owners of MLS teams will never, ever, ever agree to the potential risk of relegation. Why would they? They paid big money. Imagine New York City FC getting relegated in their first season. Or even 4th. They pumped 100 million bucks into the league, and there's no way in hell they'll allow for the chance of dropping it all on the floor.

Sadly promotion/relegation system is great for the fans and the excitement of the game, but the setup of the MLS doesn't allow for it. Not unless we get the club owners drunk, or blackmail them, or whatever. WILL NEVER HAPPEN! Well, shouldn't say never. But not likely to happen the next 20 years.

[Detroit_TFC]

Exactly - Just do the old switcheroo - instead of installing a lower league and demoting teams, create a higher league and promote the initial teams up! It's so ridiculous it might just work!

Yes - MLS Awesome and MLS Fabulous, there's no losers.

[Detroit_TFC]

The problem with a relegation system is that the current owners of MLS teams will never, ever, ever agree to the potential risk of relegation. Why would they? They paid big money. Imagine New York City FC getting relegated in their first season. Or even 4th. They pumped 100 million bucks into the league, and there's no way in hell they'll allow for the chance of dropping it all on the floor.

Sadly promotion/relegation system is great for the fans and the excitement of the game, but the setup of the MLS doesn't allow for it. Not unless we get the club owners drunk, or blackmail them, or whatever. WILL NEVER HAPPEN! Well, shouldn't say never. But not likely to happen the next 20 years.

Depends on what the hit for the drop is. Even the Premier League had to institute parachute payments when they broke out of the Football League. I could see the hit being primarily non-monetary (prestige, less tv exposure, less hand jobs by the MLS staff, etc) while maintaining the economic balance. But expansion is firmly based on a growing pot of money to spread around. The tv money has to be a lot more to support that many hungry owners.

[ManUtd4ever]

Relegation will never happen in MLS. You can take that to the bank.

[OgtheDim]

Not having relegation is a fact of life with MLS.

Like allocation money and a salary cap, its something people who follow this game should just accept as part of what it takes to be involved.

[bones]

I'd love to see the Crew moved to Ottawa or Hamilton - Bill Archer would have a conniption g:D

Ottawa will have the Fury up and running by then. The colours are right for Hamilton (oskee wee wee, oops sorry). Now you want to talk rivalry!

[Haddy]

Depends on what the hit for the drop is. Even the Premier League had to institute parachute payments when they broke out of the Football League. I could see the hit being primarily non-monetary (prestige, less tv exposure, less hand jobs by the MLS staff, etc) while maintaining the economic balance. But expansion is firmly based on a growing pot of money to spread around. The tv money has to be a lot more to support that many hungry owners.

Gate revenue is incredibly massive too. I'm surprised you didn't mention that.

Let's say TFC has a good run for a few years. Eventually relegation / promotion becomes reality and TFC hits the skids again at some point. Aura around the team feels much like it does now - and then they get relegated. And we're worried about ticket sales now?

Not to mention a broadcasting black hole of low ratings. I'm sure Bell and Rogers would love that.

No parachute payment or revenue sharing deal will ever make up for the hit to follow. And no way in hell MLSE, or any other owner for that matter, agrees to relegation as a rule until the market can actually handle it. Right now there simply aren't enough diehard supporters.

Like I said earlier, the north american market needs decades to develop its appreciation of the game. MLS has only scratched the surface.

[Haddy]

Back to topic.

New crew owners seem to have ticket sales, naming rights and a rebrand in mind to improve things in Columbus. First priorities at least.

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/2013/07/30/new-columbus-crew-owners-precourt-sports-ventures-promise-thoughtful-thoroug

i'd like to see them get it right instead of a franchise move.

[Detroit_TFC]

Gate revenue is incredibly massive too. I'm surprised you didn't mention that.

Let's say TFC has a good run for a few years. Eventually relegation / promotion becomes reality and TFC hits the skids again at some point. Aura around the team feels much like it does now - and then they get relegated. And we're worried about ticket sales now?

Not to mention a broadcasting black hole of low ratings. I'm sure Bell and Rogers would love that.

No parachute payment or revenue sharing deal will ever make up for the hit to follow. And no way in hell MLSE, or any other owner for that matter, agrees to relegation as a rule until the market can actually handle it. Right now there simply aren't enough diehard supporters.

Like I said earlier, the north american market needs decades to develop its appreciation of the game. MLS has only scratched the surface.

Just didn't think about gate, I should have.

I'd be curious to know how some of these questions were handled in the J-League, which adopted pro/reg 7 years after the league was launched.

Personally I strongly doubt we'll see pro/reg, even though I can think of some scenarios where it could happen. I think it's much more likely we'll see a NFL/AFL type merger of MLS and NASL down the road creating a bigger version of what we have now but with the addition of regional divisions.

[brad]

Just didn't think about gate, I should have.

I'd be curious to know how some of these questions were handled in the J-League, which adopted pro/reg 7 years after the league was launched.

Personally I strongly doubt we'll see pro/reg, even though I can think of some scenarios where it could happen. I think it's much more likely we'll see a NFL/AFL type merger of MLS and NASL down the road creating a bigger version of what we have now but with the addition of regional divisions.

Based on a quick read of Wikipedia, seems like the J-League is a very different model. It was formed out of already existing amateur teams (I think one team might have been new). When they added a second division the league acquired the extra teams for it (also existing teams). While ownership is not clear, it seems like the model is fundamentally different than the MLS. J-league is the Japanese football association acquiring teams, MLS is a business taking expansion fees from owners.

[Cashcleaner]

There is absolutely no chance we will ever see a system of promotion and relegation in Major League Soccer. It's just not going to happen. The fundamental economics of the league's franchise ownership pretty much forbids the concept outright. I just don't see how any current owner would allow for the creation of a system that gives them a chance (let's 2 out of 20) to lose money almost guaranteed.