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View Full Version : What makes an "average" MLS team?



Oldtimer
02-01-2013, 09:49 AM
To make the playoffs in MLS:

* you don't need the best GM in the League
* You don't need the best players
* You don't need the best coach
* You don't need the best record

you just need to be average, actually slightly worse than average since 10/19 get in!

In Toronto, our team has sucked for so long, we hardly have any idea what "average" looks like. I looked at the League stats for the post-shootout period until the year before last (2002-2011) and did a statistical analysis. Here's what I found in league-wide averages:

[geek mode]

For home games: The home team won about 1/2 of their games from 2002-2011, lost about 1/4 and tied about 1/4.

For away games: The away team lost about 1/2 of their games, won about 1/4 and tied about 1/4.

So in MLS there is a tremendous home advantage, you win 2x as many games at home than you do away, so winning half of your home games is key to being "average."


So in a 34 game season, you will play 17 at home, 17 away.

For home games, you will win 8.5, lose 4.25, and draw 4.25 (obviously this is on average, you can't win .25 of a game).

For away games you will win 4.25, lose 8.5, and draw 4.25.

Total points: (12.75 x 3) + (8.5 x 1) = 46.75

Overall goal-differential on average is 0.

In 2012, the bottom team to make the playoffs was the Whitecaps (they only got in because MLS isn't single table, otherwise it would have been the Krew). Their record was 11 wins, 13 losses, and 10 draws for 43 points, and a GD of -6, so if the division goes your way, you can get in being several points worse than average.

I hope this proves useful, and may be worth consulting throughout the year when we start excessively worrying about too many away losses, or getting over-optimistic if our team ties half of their home games.

[/geek mode]