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View Full Version : Playoff Chances Now at 2.2%



ginkster88
04-24-2012, 12:08 PM
This is a site we read a lot in the Leafs thread, and it turns out they do MLS as well: http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

Clicking "Explain" under the rather depressing graph gives a very detailed rundown of how these numbers are calculated.

It's not often wrong for predictions, except for in the case of extreme outliers (the Minnesota Wild come to mind in the NHL).

Anyway, Toronto FC now sit at a 2.2% chance of making the post-season, 5.9% behind the Impact (can we even call them the Limpact anymore?).

ryan
04-24-2012, 12:22 PM
So you're saying there's a chance....

DangerRed
04-24-2012, 12:25 PM
There must be a typo on that website. The chances of us making the playoffs are ZERO.

Roogsy
04-24-2012, 12:28 PM
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ouderwien
04-24-2012, 12:28 PM
I only read it quickly, but if I was looking at the numbers correctly, if we lose 4 more games, our chances of making the playoffs drop to 0%.

Whoop
04-24-2012, 12:33 PM
Very similar to Roogsy's post in the Keep Him or Scrap Him thread.

ginkster88
04-24-2012, 12:36 PM
I only read it quickly, but if I was looking at the numbers correctly, if we lose 4 more games, our chances of making the playoffs drop to 0%.

There is only one 10-loss scenario that would make the playoffs, with a record of 11-7-10. That record has a 0.025% chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

So to your point, pretty much yes.

Roogsy
04-24-2012, 12:50 PM
There is always a chance, until you need to win more than 3 points per game.

The team can go 0-19 and still make it if they then win all remaining 15 games (assuming 45 points gets you in).

jaxul
04-24-2012, 12:59 PM
*must resist urge to post the Jim Mora playoffs clip again*

ensco
04-24-2012, 01:44 PM
I like sportsclubstats, but the numbers are not accurate this early in the season. There's a methodology flaw, there's not enough data and too much variability. The odds for us are understated because they give too much weight to the early season results, and not enough to likely mean reversion. Same for everyone else btw (the Quakes are not 95% likely to make it, for instance, it's something less than that)

Roogsy's analysis is more statistically significant. It's probably more like 5-10% chance for us to make it, and this is important, because the season is not actually fried yet, which is the conclusion you draw from the 2.2% number.

But it's awfully close to being fried.

Phil
04-24-2012, 01:49 PM
I like sportsclubstats, but the numbers are not accurate this early in the season. There's a methodology flaw, there's not enough data and too much variability. The odds for us are understated because they give too much weight to the early season results, and not enough to likely mean reversion. Same for everyone else btw (the Quakes are not 95% likely to make it, for instance, it's something less than that)

Roogsy's analysis is more statistically significant. It's probably more like 5-10% chance for us to make it, and this is important, because the season is not actually fried yet, which is the conclusion you draw from the 2.2% number.

But it's awfully close to being fried.

It doesnt take much to get back in it given the unbalanced schedule, we have 2 games in hand on the leaders and only 2 wins from being in the mix. It is a problem in the sense that even if we are great for a while we end up in the middle. It does offer a dim hope, but its better than the numbers given.

Globetrotter
04-24-2012, 01:57 PM
We're more of a champions league type of team anyways.

We'd be much better at MLS if we had more lightning storms to help us out.

brad
04-24-2012, 02:45 PM
We're more of a champions league type of team anyways.

We'd be much better at MLS if we had more lightning storms to help us out.

Except we need to figure out how to get results against an MLS team first - one that we have already lost to, or we aren't going to be in the Champions League.

ManUtd4ever
04-24-2012, 02:59 PM
Never mind the playoffs. If something doesn't change soon, this season might be reminiscent of the 2009 New York Red Bulls.

Just One Man
04-24-2012, 10:09 PM
I know TFC already has a huge uphill battle, but these % chance at making the playoff numbers are always such nonsense.

The Leafs had a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February...

ryan
04-25-2012, 09:26 AM
I know TFC already has a huge uphill battle, but these % chance at making the playoff numbers are always such nonsense.

The Leafs had a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February...

Yeah should TFC get 3 this weekend, I'm sure that percentage would be back in double digits.

Shakes McQueen
04-25-2012, 11:25 AM
Eh, these statistical "chance at playoffs" methodologies use past results as a predictor of future ones. So if you think the team is playing to it's actual level right now, then 2.2% is probably accurate. If they come around and win a few games, it becomes kind of worthless, and changes wildly.

These probability numbers are more interesting later in the season, when teams start to settle in the table.

- Scott

Shakes McQueen
04-25-2012, 11:28 AM
The Leafs had a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February...

Exactly. All they do is extrapolate outward from a team's current record. So yeah, on our current pace, of course we have nearly no chance of making the playoffs. The Leafs, on their pace in February, would obviously make the playoffs. Of course, their pace changed dramatically.

- Scott

ginkster88
04-25-2012, 11:53 AM
Yeah should TFC get 3 this weekend, I'm sure that percentage would be back in double digits.

It would push it to 6%.

Roogsy
04-25-2012, 01:08 PM
The Leafs had a 90% chance of making the playoffs in February...


Agreed. These numbers are not a good projection of what could and will happen.

However, can we all agree that it would take a massive change in form for that to happen? It has to literally be a complete change in form, like night and day.

With the Leafs, they hit the skids. I mean, it was pretty legendary the way they tanked and that's why they were knocked out.

With TFC, they literally have play like a championship-winning team in MLS. They have to go from 0-0-6 to winning twice as many as they lose.

Ajax TFC
04-25-2012, 01:31 PM
If they're predicting our future results based on Our past ones, shouldn't we have a 0% chance of making the playoffs?

billyfly
04-25-2012, 01:31 PM
Mods - merge this nerd's thread with the REAL thread - http://redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?12155-Sports-Club-Stats&highlight=Sports+club+stats

Oldtimer
04-25-2012, 01:53 PM
Mods - merge this nerd's thread with the REAL thread - http://redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?12155-Sports-Club-Stats&highlight=Sports+club+stats

This thread is fine on its own. :D

billyfly
04-25-2012, 04:08 PM
Nerds!

Belfast_Boy
04-25-2012, 04:17 PM
There is always a chance, until you need to win more than 3 points per game.

The team can go 0-19 and still make it if they then win all remaining 15 games (assuming 45 points gets you in).

I just posted something similar in the Winter thread.

the biggest issue is we only won an average of 7.5 games over the last two seasons. worst case we're out by mid-July.

Beach_Red
04-25-2012, 04:23 PM
And I answered in the Winter thread, but it probably is better off here - this year there's cross-division seeding, it's just the top five teams in each division, so it depends how strong the rest of the east is. Right now KC is running away with it, but the rest of the division is still pretty tight, the second place team only has three wins.

Sure, we oculd be out by mid-July, but we could also be second.

Brooker
04-25-2012, 05:22 PM
There's a statistical disease spreading from the hockey threads...

GlenM
04-25-2012, 05:28 PM
*must resist urge to post the Jim Mora playoffs clip again*

Can you imagine Winter doing that after a game?

I don't think it's his style.

To his credit, he's remain calm and positive.

It's not how you start, it's how you finish.

Longshot at best.

You never know.

GlenM

billyfly
04-25-2012, 07:51 PM
there's a statistical disease spreading from the hockey threads...

nerds!!!!

jloome
04-25-2012, 08:21 PM
Agreed. These numbers are not a good projection of what could and will happen.

However, can we all agree that it would take a massive change in form for that to happen? It has to literally be a complete change in form, like night and day.

With the Leafs, they hit the skids. I mean, it was pretty legendary the way they tanked and that's why they were knocked out.

With TFC, they literally have play like a championship-winning team in MLS. They have to go from 0-0-6 to winning twice as many as they lose.

LOL, I see no rational sign that says Winter can turn them around, but you have to admit Roogsy, if he gets us into the playoffs by batting .600 the rest of the way, we'll probably put a statue up.

Roogsy
04-25-2012, 09:28 PM
Oh it would be something...