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__wowza
10-31-2011, 11:56 AM
PLEASE READ BEFORE RATING!
(it'll make everything a hell of a lot easier)

Instead of a simple yes or no, you're going to be rating different aspects of Winter as a coach. Each category gets a specific rating, from 5 (being the highest) to 1 (being the lowest). To calculate the average rating, just add your total up and divide by 5, if it's got a decimal point at the end of it, you can round either up or down based on the simple question "did Winter perform up to your expectations for the month". Afterward, you post your total rating on the poll, from 5 - 1.

here's the criteria:

TACTICS
how did you feel about the tactical choices made?
what about his starters? subs? formation?

RESULTS
at the end of the day, how did we do in terms of results? did we tie games we should've lost? lost games we should've won? etc.

EFFICIENCY
how effective was the coach in utilizing the players he has?
did he play some players out of position? did he have a reason to?

COMMUNICATION
how effective was the coach in explaining his outlook and choices in the paper / on torontofc.ca / on TFCtv / in post match interviews?

TRADES & MISC
were the trades made productive or counter-productive?
did he fly off the handle at get a 4 game ban?
was he making eyes at your wife/girlfriend/same-sex partner?


A general guideline: Its how you feel at the moment, not a final assessment. Like a marathon, this is just a snapshot of our support for the month. A low approval rating does not rate him as an overall failure, just like a high approval rating does not mean he's Sir Alex Ferguson. For the sake of context, this is how he / TFC have preformed in September:




LEAGUE PLAY
3 points out of a possible 9
8TH in the East -
16TH out of 18TH overall -
GD: 0

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE PLAY
2ND in CCL Group C ↑
3 points out of a possible 3
GD: +3

*red denotes CCL game


Toronto FC v New York Redbulls
OCT 1st : TIE 1 - 1

Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC
OCT 15th : TIE 1 - 1

FC Dallas v Toronto FC
OCT 18th : WIN 3 - 0

Toronto FC v New England
OCT 22nd : TIE 2 - 2




OLD THREADS:
*3.76 / Rating: B SEPTEMBER THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=29748 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=29748)
*3.21 / Rating: C AUGUST THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/sh...ad.php?t=29422 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=29422)
83.44% JULY THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=29100 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=29100)
63.55% JUNE THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/sh...ad.php?t=28658 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=28658)
46.60% MAY THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=28251 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=28251)
77.61% APRIL THREAD > http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/sh...ad.php?t=27878 (http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=27878)


NOTE: if you'd like to see an update to the criteria you think i may have overlooked, PM me.

__wowza
10-31-2011, 11:57 AM
winter approval rating for the year coming up shortly.

Dkolish3
10-31-2011, 12:20 PM
I guess I'll be the first one to ask this but considering that FC Dallas lost 8 of their last ten games are they any good? And if not was it really a momentous occasion that we beat them?

:hide:

:leaving:

Oldtimer
10-31-2011, 12:25 PM
I guess I'll be the first one to ask this but considering that FC Dallas lost 8 of their last ten games are they any good? And if not was it really a momentous occasion that we beat them?

:hide:

:leaving:

Considering how much higher Dallas are up the table and that most of those losses were to top teams, that TFC had never beaten them in 5 years, that it was an away game, and that TFC won by 3, yes it was momentous.

In fact, did you see the game? TFC played their best football in 5 years.

Dkolish3
10-31-2011, 12:31 PM
Considering how much higher Dallas are up the table and that most of those losses were to top teams, that TFC had never beaten them in 5 years, that it was an away game, and that TFC won by 3, yes it was momentous.

In fact, did you see the game? TFC played their best football in 5 years.
I did see the game and thought TFC played a great game, but the fact remains that TFC beat a collapsing FC Dallas, just because they were good for most of the season does not mean that TFC faced a good team. Also FC Dallas was the second worst team through the second half of the season, hardly world beaters

ManUtd4ever
10-31-2011, 12:33 PM
I guess I'll be the first one to ask this but considering that FC Dallas lost 8 of their last ten games are they any good? And if not was it really a momentous occasion that we beat them?

:hide:

:leaving:

TFC was generally considered to be an underdog to advance in Group C going into the final match against Dallas.

Nonetheless, based on your logic, TFC thoroughly dominated a club that was struggling, in their own barn, and they still deserve full credit for advancing to their inaugral CCL quarter final in a must win situation.

Any way you slice it, it was a momentous occasion for the franchise at this particular juncture in the history of the organization.

__wowza
10-31-2011, 12:38 PM
I guess I'll be the first one to ask this but considering that FC Dallas lost 8 of their last ten games are they any good? And if not was it really a momentous occasion that we beat them?

:hide:

:leaving:

same could be said about the montreal miracle, but at the end of the day, a lot of people didn't expect us to win. hell, i didnt expect us to win. i thought it was going to be a let down like the NYRB game that took us out of the playoffs. everything i read had us pinned as a "surprise" victor, but here's where i find my joy:

we won 3-0, dominating a team.

it's not just that we beat a team whose form dipped, our form perked up, and we won in a fashion that i'd expect a team to win under that scenario. it's not like the NYRB game where you could say "ok, one last game and we're in the playoffs, bottom of the table team", we actually played well, played like we deserved that victory, and we did it with a whole lot of dead weight.

__wowza
10-31-2011, 12:45 PM
TACTICS: 5
i would've liked to see plata on for longer in the philly game, as he'd been out for a bit, but ultimately it proved good to let him rest after an injury before the dallas game. i also dug the kocic over frei decision, kocic was solid and winter stood with the man who brought us to the dance.

RESULTS: 3
three ties in games i couldnt give a fuck about. thought we got a lot less than we deserved and that we should've overcame philly and the revs, but our tie gave the whitecaps the golden spoon, thats good i guess? :D

EFFICIENCY: 3
frings as sweeper is still a stroke of genius in organizing the backline and carrying around dead weight, i expect him to move back to his DM role next season. i thought he made good for replacing avila for the CCL league, but i'd love to see him back in the lineup come march.

COMMUNICATION: 5
town halls, that's it that's all. he's got a great understanding of the game. his whole team does. he was really articulate at spilling how he's feeling about the league, the refs, etc. he has a bit more restraint than the rest of his team (de klerk), and that's fantastic to see as a head coach.

TRADES & MISC: N/A
he was making eyes at your wife/girlfriend/same-sex partner.

Oldtimer
10-31-2011, 12:49 PM
I gave him a 4.3, up from 3.8, rounded down to 4.


(BTW, I'm rating him as an MLS coach, where say Kreis or Schmidt would be a "5," not on a "world class" scale, where a Kreis or a Schmidt would be a "3.")

Certainly Winter's tactics in Dallas, his lineup and substitutions and game strategy were almost perfect. He gets downgraded for not being able to motivate his players for the meaningless season finale.

Beach_Red
10-31-2011, 01:37 PM
I guess I'll be the first one to ask this but considering that FC Dallas lost 8 of their last ten games are they any good? And if not was it really a momentous occasion that we beat them?

:hide:

:leaving:


If Winter and the staff treated it as a momentus occassion that would be a problem, sure, but they didn't. They prepared for it well and executed well and moved on.

So that should give us confidence that they are preparing well for next season and for the rest of the Champions League.

Detroit_TFC
10-31-2011, 01:59 PM
I fretted a lot about the score last month, this month, easy 4. Top notch management of our most important game far outweighs the lackluster home closer.

Dallas was ripe for the taking, true, but that's never stopped us from failing to do so dozens of times before (speaking generally). I've never seen the squad so motivated to get a result and that reflects well on the team management. Also the strong positive vibe coming out of the players post season gives me a lot of hope and optimism.

PopePouri
10-31-2011, 03:17 PM
Even if Dallas had a poor run of form, they were dominated completely.

Also given our record this year, we seem to stop losing streaks from continuing. We could probably be blamed for the SKC turnaround.

Yeoman
10-31-2011, 05:22 PM
i wanted to give a 3.5 if i could
i still have faith
i know it's not his fault he's got what he's got
but for mls quality? he sure did make us look pretty damn good this year once we got sorted half way through the season

Shakes McQueen
10-31-2011, 05:54 PM
I gave him a well-earned 4 stars.

- Scott

Auzzy
10-31-2011, 06:20 PM
Winter didn't make eyes at my wife or my girlfriend or my same-sex partner. That's an insult to me. -2

torontocelt
10-31-2011, 07:52 PM
I gave him a 3 as he only picked up 3 points out of 9 in the MLS. If 9 points in the MLS and a win in the group stages of the champions league is a 5 rating then how can he be anything other than a 3 considering his overall results?

Roogsy
10-31-2011, 09:28 PM
I don't reward people for things they have not delivered yet. Although I am no longer going to argue what people should be satisfied with, I maintain consistent to my standards. I gave him a 3. The team is more potent offensively but we still suck defensively, and after an entire season with him in charge the best thing I can say about Winter is that we don't suck. That's hardly a "5" for me.

Juanito
10-31-2011, 10:21 PM
For me he's a 3.5, but since I can't give that, I will give him a 3.

There were some positives, one BIG POSITIVE, but there have been some ho-hum performances.

I still believe we are moving in the right direction, it's just not a 4 or 5 in my opinion.

Gallade
10-31-2011, 11:46 PM
a 4 - I'm not going to 'average' the CCL results with the eliminated-from-playoff-race MLS ones. we got 3 out of 3 meaningful points and 3 out of 9 in friendlies. (i was very happy to dodge the Spoon but i've seen nothing to indicate that the team cared about that.)

the team's record in the Quality DPs era is a satisfying one. we're not SS contenders next year, but top 3 seed in the East won't require too much tinkering.

jloome
11-01-2011, 11:24 AM
I'd give him a 3.5. Solid first season based on our pre-existing expectations that he was rebuilding with a system basically alien to mls.

__wowza
11-01-2011, 11:37 AM
just a snapshot after 76 votes:

winter currently sits at 78.15%
which is a 3.90 star average rating
and that translates to a B+ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_%28education%29#Ontario)

up: .14 stars and a half grade from september
up: .69 stars and a grade from august

Oldtimer
11-02-2011, 09:16 PM
Here's where we were a little over a year ago:

coach

http://torontofc.neulion.com/tfc/console.jsp?catid=8&id=2329

GM

http://torontofc.neulion.com/tfc/console.jsp?catid=8&id=2127 (talking about bringing in new players ;) , look at how he never looks you in the eye).

Detroit_TFC
11-03-2011, 08:20 AM
Here's where we were a little over a year ago:

coach

http://torontofc.neulion.com/tfc/console.jsp?catid=8&id=2329

GM

http://torontofc.neulion.com/tfc/console.jsp?catid=8&id=2127 (talking about bringing in new players ;) , look at how he never looks you in the eye).

Oy vey. It's like Preki is giving a deposition, or giving testimony at a Congressional committee.

Quite a counterpoint indeed.

Shakes McQueen
11-03-2011, 08:55 AM
Keep in mind this is rating his performance in October, guys - not an end of season rating.

- Scott

__wowza
11-03-2011, 09:07 AM
Keep in mind this is rating his performance in October, guys - not an end of season rating.

- Scott

^ what he said. i thought that went without saying, a "whole season thread" is coming later on during the break.

Roogsy
11-06-2011, 10:32 AM
I get the happiness over the CCL win but 3 points out of 9? How does that earn a 4 or 5 rating?

I get the feeling that one win will influence the whole year's rating overall.

menefreghista
11-06-2011, 11:29 AM
I get the happiness over the CCL win but 3 points out of 9? How does that earn a 4 or 5 rating?

I get the feeling that one win will influence the whole year's rating overall.

The optimism for that is really only here.

The rest of the fanbase barely noticed. But they did notice another shitty season in MLS.

brad
11-06-2011, 12:28 PM
I get the happiness over the CCL win but 3 points out of 9? How does that earn a 4 or 5 rating?

I get the feeling that one win will influence the whole year's rating overall.

Simple, context.

NYRB game. Loses a mark for me for dropping two points at home.

Philly away - a draw away against one of the better teams in one of the more hostile environments in the league while resting starters for the CL game is a good result in my books.

Dallas - the only game in Oct that mattered and we came up big, dominating them from start to finish, away, with one of the best performances the club has ever put in. That gets huge marks from me.

New England - loses a mark for dropping the points at home.

So - one fantastic result, one very good result, and two average results.

I also apply context to the matches I watch and the circumstances. The CCL result far outweighs the others because it was the only game that mattered and the performance was comprehensive. The Philly point was good because of the circumstances. The points in the NY game was lost when one of the greatest players of his generation rolled back the years and produced a piece of magic that would not have looked out of place at Highbury 8-10 years ago. The NE result came a few days after a mid-week CL game and we don't have the squad depth to to play a mid-week game and and then a weekend one.

Had we actually been in the hunt for a playoff spot and any of those dropped points mattered in that regard, I would have rated him lower.

brad
11-06-2011, 12:34 PM
There is one other thing I give Winter big credit for - we lost 4 of our last 20 matches. He is breaking the losing mentality of this team. There are still too many draws in there, but instilling belief in the lads that they aren't going to get blown out every game is a big step in improving the results IMHO.

This has a been a problem since day one at this club.

Roogsy
11-06-2011, 01:45 PM
Again, short memories. Some of the worst losses in the teams history came under Winter. We stopped losing as much when the DPs arrived so was it the coaching or the DPs? To me that's a key question.

pekduck
11-06-2011, 02:52 PM
Again, short memories. Some of the worst losses in the teams history came under Winter. We stopped losing as much when the DPs arrived so was it the coaching or the DPs? To me that's a key question.

lol, sorry roogsy, i know what you meant, but still can't help :D

go ask gordan ramsy (not that he's the best, but an example) to make a meal out of shitty ingredients that taste like top notch cuisine.. was it the ingredients or the skill of the chef? :cool:

rocker
11-06-2011, 03:18 PM
yeah, some of our biggest losses have come under Winter... but some of our biggest wins came under Mo Johnston. What does that prove? Both are meaningless statements.

Roogsy
11-06-2011, 03:23 PM
"Biggest wins" is relative. Most of them were not overly impressive and probably meant more to us because they were so rare.

But by all means if being blown out several times during the season doesn't mean anything the fans are the ultimate judge.

Roogsy
11-06-2011, 03:29 PM
lol, sorry roogsy, i know what you meant, but still can't help :D

go ask gordan ramsy (not that he's the best, but an example) to make a meal out of shitty ingredients that taste like top notch cuisine.. was it the ingredients or the skill of the chef? :cool:

Interesting you put it that way since the talent of a chef is generally measured with his creativity and the ability to work with what he's got. Top chef shows on TV don't pit chefs against each other with "ideal" ingredients & settings but rather the opposite. "Make a delicious dessert with this turnip! In 5 minutes!" Basically you're making my case for me. Winter can only work with a multi-million dollar roster. Certainly the ideal coach for the salary-capped MLS!

So the question is, using your analogy, is Winter a talented chef that brings genius and creativity to his dishes regardless of ingredients or is he unable to create an eatable dish unless he's got $100 truffle oil and $200 caviar?

Auzzy
11-06-2011, 06:29 PM
So we're not allowed to give Winter credit for helping to find and/or select good DPs, and for using them well?

I do give him credit for that -- especially considering how poorly many MLS teams do with their DPs. DPs are part of the MLS salary cap, so why look down on Winter because he does well with DPs? (In fact, there have been plenty of cases where DPs in MLS seem to hurt their teams rather than help them.)

Plus it's soccer, it's not like a couple of DPs can do that much on their own. What we saw earlier in the season, is that we had some pretty good wing play, & were already getting lots of decent crosses and other passes into the box, certainly more than in most of the other seasons. But there was nobody there to finish those plays, especially when Gordon was injured or not with the team. Santos, Johnson & the like couldn't do enough in that role. Winter selected the players & built the team that can devise those plays (Plata, Soolsma, Morgan, Ecks, Johnson, Avila, Marosevic, a rejuvenated JDG, even Borman was OK on the attack & the crosses), and then he selected Koevermans to complete the picture. (Also, Koevermans was far from the only player to actually score during his time here.)

Of course, for the future we need some decent backups for Koevermans, to survive a long season in multiple competitions.

I gave Winter 3 for October BTW. I wasn't very unhappy overall, was ecstatic about the most important game vs Dallas, and I'm feeling mostly optimistic for a multitude of reasons that I won't all list here. But overall for October, I thought the results & other criteria that wowza listed were average. (I also get that some will see those games more in context, and rate one point higher.) I certainly don't get the overwrought negativity, and the endless pining about players that are long gone, and that always had lots of other associated issues.

Roogsy
11-06-2011, 07:43 PM
So we're not allowed to give Winter credit for helping to find and/or select good DPs, and for using them well?

Actually I have and do give TFC credit for both Frings and Danny K although Frings wasn't a Winter discovery as much as Klinnsman. Where I think TFC went wrong is that they did a below average job with the rest of the team. On their own without the DPs TFC is not competent enough whereas other teams are self-sufficient without their DP(s) and their star signing adds to their overall competency as opposed to comprising the bulk of it. KC is a good example of that.

And I disagree with your portrayal of the DP situation in MLS. I think most teams in MLS are starting to get the hang of it better than before. Several of the DPs signed this year have been effective. I think our advantage in this regard has been mitigated. Its not like a couple of years ago where only 1 or 2 teams had DPs. Next year most teams will. And there will be less "duds" for DPs like in previous years.

Auzzy
11-06-2011, 08:00 PM
That's why I said "find and/or select."

I think the team, in the last few months of the year, was above average in midfield & attack, with or without one or both of Danny K & Frings. They were still below average in defense -- for a variety of reasons, some of which can be pinned on Winter & Co, and others that can't.

The two new DPs played no role in 2 of 3 goals vs. Dallas. Played no role in the 1 goal vs. Philly. That's just the games in October (which this thread is about).


EDIT And the team is still above average at goalkeeping of course. No credit to Winter for finding or selecting our goalies, but props for building & maintaining them both well this season, with obviously awesome rapport between the two.

backbeat
11-06-2011, 08:03 PM
Again, short memories. Some of the worst losses in the teams history came under Winter. We stopped losing as much when the DPs arrived so was it the coaching or the DPs? To me that's a key question.

the coaching and management - plain and simple

winter was changing the mentality of the team - and did so throughout 2011

he now has the nucleus of the character type that will go forward in Red and he is emphasizing the development and usage of Canadian academy payers....

he was reorganizing the team structure for the years ahead of a constant winning structure - not a buy it in one year type of team and re-do it year after year.

you kept mentioning NYRB's as an example of what TFC should and could do in one year - well where are they now??

i prefer his long-term approach...

brad
11-06-2011, 09:25 PM
Koevermans is a target man that finishes chances carved out by others and it not Frings creating those chances for him. That right there tells you it's not just the DP's - the rest of the team is playing their part.

Also, nobody is saying this team is the finished article, or even close to it, so why are we judging the team like it is?

Anyway - back to Octobers results...

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 12:58 AM
you kept mentioning NYRB's as an example of what TFC should and could do in one year - well where are they now??

You mean the team that Backe has taken to the playoffs in both seasons he has been in charge, and went to the conference semi-finals in both seasons? Is that what you mean by "where are they now"? Would winning the MLS Cup be the only satisfactory season in your eyes? Good! I hope that's the standard you use for TFC next year. I will hold you to it.

However, based on the NY comparison alone, we are currently already behind the curve. So if NY's performance is lacking, what does that make TFC? Kind of says a lot.


i prefer his long-term approach... 5 year plans are wonderful aren't they?

Shakes McQueen
11-07-2011, 03:33 AM
Again, short memories. Some of the worst losses in the teams history came under Winter. We stopped losing as much when the DPs arrived so was it the coaching or the DPs? To me that's a key question.

A lot of other, major changes were made around the same time those DP players came in. You've insinuated many times in the past that you think any turnaround is pretty much entirely down to adding Koevermans and Frings. I disagree with that assessment.

And while Frings was a world class player, and someone I suspect any manager would love to have added if he were available to them, I think Koevermans was a shrewd signing that Winter deserves massive credit for. He was the largely unknown quantity of the two, yet he was just what we needed up front.

If this team plays the way it did post-transfer window, and with some defensive additions, we will be a solid post-season team. Winter largely delivered what I asked of him all season - we showed massive improvement by the end, the locker room seems the most harmonious it has been in a few years, our guys are openly praising Winter's system, we've got a scoring threat up front, and are a couple of guys away from arguably being the most complete team we've been in our entire existence.

Winter made mistakes along the way, but overall he gets a firm thumbs up from me. And instead of walking away from the season completely empty-handed, we've got a date in the Champion's League

- Scott

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 07:53 AM
Saying that Winter & Co. did below average in the non-DP players is a bit unfair. They were brought in too late to get the type of quality non-DP players that every squad needs. I think we'll get a better idea next spring how good they are in bringing in that type of player.

The other factor was that he wanted to give the original squad a chance to try out. Fair enough. If he didn't do that and started chopping right away he probably would have lost the locker room. Every player feels like he deserves a chance to prove himself, and cutting players without doing that would make the rest of the team angry. Of course it became obvious after some games that no matter how hard the team trained, some of them would never learn decent footballing skills. At that point, no-one would object to his changes (except for losing DeRo).

The second-half team had one of the better offenses in MLS. Of course you need a good defense to win games consistently. Some of that (the CB injuries) was totally beyond Winter's control. By the end of the summer transfer window 2012, if he hasn't fixed the back-end, then there will be cause for concern.

Winter showed some inexperience with the league early on, but the way he handled the Dallas match shows very good strategy and gives me more confidence that he will be a good coach in tactics.

I'm very unimpressed with Backe. Yeah, they made the playoffs, but any coach with the advertising money that Red Bull was willing to spend on players (remember their team is an advertising write-off, and has no need to make money) like Thierry Henry should have made it to the Cup final. The fact that he couldn't do better with the amazing talent that he had at his disposal shows me that he is over-rated as a manager.

Winter did very well with a mid-range salary budget like ML$E was willing to provide and all of the handicaps he had at the beginning of the season. October was pretty good, so I rated him 4 for October. Overall for the season, it's less good because I feel that he gave too much of a chance to the Preki-players and miscellaneous riff-raff he was able to bring in on short notice. He probably should have started trading sooner and got rid of those guys. Of course, that's assuming that Mariner could have found someone at that point in the season willing to make the trades TFC needed.

pekduck
11-07-2011, 08:13 AM
Interesting you put it that way since the talent of a chef is generally measured with his creativity and the ability to work with what he's got. Top chef shows on TV don't pit chefs against each other with "ideal" ingredients & settings but rather the opposite. "Make a delicious dessert with this turnip! In 5 minutes!" Basically you're making my case for me. Winter can only work with a multi-million dollar roster. Certainly the ideal coach for the salary-capped MLS!

So the question is, using your analogy, is Winter a talented chef that brings genius and creativity to his dishes regardless of ingredients or is he unable to create an eatable dish unless he's got $100 truffle oil and $200 caviar?

way to take my response out of context and substituting with your own, oh man, lol

only if winter had a turnip... what he had is a rotten turnip to began with among with other listeria filled craps, you can't make delicious dessert with a rotten turnip dude. that's why i don't agree with your call to discredit winter's merit on his result prior to transfers (it's not just DPs, the ingredients elsewhere on the field are changed).

he didn't change his recipe, all he did is thrown away the rotten ones and add the fresh ones, same legitimate ingredients, for his recipe are just fine, lol :D

123 elite
11-07-2011, 08:32 AM
Winter largely delivered what I asked of him all season - we showed massive improvement by the end, the locker room seems the most harmonious it has been in a few years, our guys are openly praising Winter's system, we've got a scoring threat up front, and are a couple of guys away from arguably being the most complete team we've been in our entire existence.

Winter made mistakes along the way, but overall he gets a firm thumbs up from me. And instead of walking away from the season completely empty-handed, we've got a date in the Champion's League

- Scott

You must mean massive improvement from the first half of the season which Winter was also in charge of. Because a quick memory refresh of the previous 4 years shows that we have the lowest points since season 1 and we are tied for the least amount of wins since season 1. Our goal difference.... well take a look at that number. So the 'most complete team' has actually performed extremly badly. I am pretty locked in my thinking of Winter's first season because i haven't seen any improvement that is actually measurable in a way that shows in that stats that matter...wins, points, position in league table, goal difference. When you start to factor in imaginables like locker room harmony as a measure of improvment you are grasping at straws because unless you are in the locker and playing on the team you can't have any concrete evidence to back that up. Winter tore up last years team and oiled up the revolving door and brought players in and moved players on and moved on some that he brought in and tried players in different positions and come July his efforts had yielded absolutely nothing except the idea that there was a system he was attempting to bring to the club which really only accepted by many die hards on this forum. The other 15000 people in the stadium started voting with their feet. Then in come 2 DPs and things start to change a bit. This is then seen as some master stroke from Winter and people start to see it all come together. The most bizarre one is the idea that JDG has improved immensely since their arrival. He has improved from a -10 to a -5. His passing is still all over the place and one or two goals don't make him a genius. He is paid about 10 times his actual value to this team.
The pessamist in me partly sees the minor improvment in the second half of the season as much as a result of mid season fatigue by all the other teams. I never saw a single game all season where the team coming to play at BMO didn't look like they could easily walk away with all three points. There was no fear from any of them. NE Revs and Vancouver included.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 08:48 AM
Winter made mistakes along the way, but overall he gets a firm thumbs up from me. And instead of walking away from the season completely empty-handed, we've got a date in the Champion's League


Again short memories. It has amazed me since it happened that nobody remembers it took an act of god to get us in. Had the initial NCC fixture not been interrupted by an incredible storm, we would not have seen a single minute of CCL play. Vancouver then decided it was going to shoot itself in the foot (I still think to this day Teitur Tots does not let us win on the replay.) We then got an incredibly lucky draw through qualification and needed Dallas to implode to get us into the knockout stages. I see it as make-up for all the bad luck we've had in the previous 4 years because as much as nobody wants to say it, we've had an incredible run of good luck. And no, I am not substituting good management for luck. Nature has nothing to do with good management. Drawing semi-pro teams is not about management. Having another team implode before they reach us is not about management. The only credit I will give Winter is having his team prepared to beat Dallas when they were ripe for the picking. But I am not nearly as impressed with that win given the context as some others are. I just don't see that run of good luck going on forever, and what we're left with better be a well-built team. Either way, given all of that, I just don't see an "excellent" rating being deserved.

If it weren't for that storm...where would our season be today? I haven't seen anyone even mention this and yet I see it as a fundamental question about our year.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 08:55 AM
way to take my response out of context and substituting with your own, oh man, lol

only if winter had a turnip... what he had is a rotten turnip to began with among with other listeria filled craps, you can't make delicious dessert with a rotten turnip dude. that's why i don't agree with your call to discredit winter's merit on his result prior to transfers (it's not just DPs, the ingredients elsewhere on the field are changed).

he didn't change his recipe, all he did is thrown away the rotten ones and add the fresh ones, same legitimate ingredients, for his recipe are just fine, lol :D

Not at all. You presented the argument of a chef, and unless you present a counter-argument to my point of a good chef being able to work with a wide spectrum of ingredients you haven't actually proven anything. Has Winter been able to work with a DP-less squad? Show me the proof. Because other managers can. Until then, he can play 3-card monty with the ingredients all day long, it doesn't make him a good chef.

Like I said, being a good chef is more than just working with top quality ingredients. It's about being able to work with what you've got. Where is the proof of this for Winter? Do tell...

__wowza
11-07-2011, 09:06 AM
Like I said, being a good chef is more than just working with top quality ingredients. It's about being able to work with what you've got. Where is the proof of this for Winter? Do tell...

im not going to get into the other points, i havent had my coffee yet.

i just find it odd that after the transfer window closed it became about the DPs. why is it that if anything wrong that happened before, it was winters fault, but when things started going our way it was solely because of our DPs with no credit to our skipper?

Canary10
11-07-2011, 09:29 AM
"Interesting you put it that way since the talent of a chef is generally measured with his creativity and the ability to work with what he's got."

Roogsy, you keep saying that, and the premise is wrong. Winter was not asked to work with what he has (a la Kenny Dalglish in Liverpool who you keep bringing up). He was asked to come in and build a team around another way of playing, and given a three year mandate to do it (the ONLY way you can build a team to fit your system rather than build a system to fit a team is to have time to do it). If taking THIS team that he had February 1 and making something of it was the mandate than I agree he failed. But is wasn't the mandate.

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 09:35 AM
in·cor·ri·gi·ble (http://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gifn-kôrhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gif-jhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gif-bhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gifl, -khttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/obreve.gifrhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gif-)

adj.
1. Incapable of being corrected or reformed
2. Firmly rooted; ineradicable
3. Difficult or impossible to control or manage

n.
One that cannot be corrected or reformed.

:D

Beach_Red
11-07-2011, 09:37 AM
^ Yes, this is true. Winter/Mariner were the first guys given a multi-year mandate from their start with the team. That, and having Klinsmann talking to MLSE has been the biggest difference in the way this team has been run.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 10:07 AM
You must mean massive improvement from the first half of the season which Winter was also in charge of. Because a quick memory refresh of the previous 4 years shows that we have the lowest points since season 1 and we are tied for the least amount of wins since season 1.

You need to read the posts. Almost no-one is counting the first half of the season at all, so season-long stats are meaningless.

Kreis had similar stats when he took over, so did Bruce Arena. La had the worst defense in the league and finished near the bottom.

Coincidentally (or maybe not so), those are the clubs in the MLS Cup final, not say, NY.

Your post says that you want mediocrity right now (such as New York has) instead of long-term building. That is your choice, but it's not what TFC management or most of the fans are looking at. The poll numbers show most people are looking longer than 1 season before judging.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 10:16 AM
L
in·cor·ri·gi·ble (http://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gifn-kôrhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gif-jhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gif-bhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gifl, -khttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/obreve.gifrhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gif-)

adj.
1. Incapable of being corrected or reformed
2. Firmly rooted; ineradicable
3. Difficult or impossible to control or manage

n.
One that cannot be corrected or reformed.

:D

LOL!

In order to be corrected, facts need to be presented to counter the position. I ask questions they go unanswered. All I get are arguments of what people feel & perceive. Nothing I have stated has been proven incorrect so how can it (or I) be incorrigible (or corrected)?

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 10:22 AM
There's no disputing the facts. The team's record is clear. The only difference is the interpretation of said facts.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 10:24 AM
One point of contention with Winter seems to be the axing of half the team in midseason. I thought this was a good article on the MLSE's front office's role in that.

http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2011/10/the-hundred-days/


In the town hall, Winter talked about how he signed a contract with Toronto FC on one day, then was on a plane to Turkey with a team he had never met the next day. In retrospect maybe he should have fired the lot of them on the plane, but I respect the fact that he gave everyone a chance before letting them go. Doing it a halfway through a season is not ideal, but I'd rather him take the axe then instead of waiting for the off-season. We'd be a good half a year to a year behind rebuilding if he'd waited. Also, it was clear from watching the games that he had players actively not playing the system. There's only so long you can let guys go on fighting everything you do.

Chevy
11-07-2011, 10:28 AM
I remember early this season - Frei would have the ball at his feet more than our strikers. Is that Winter's fault? Yes! But it was part of his plan to develop a system, to latch on to SOME sort of philosophy on how to play this game. It's ugliness and pain has, I believe served a purpose - and it showed in the last few games of the season. I bet even the Taj Mahal has an ugly foundation.

Is Winter perfect? Heck no. We play in the 35th best league in the world - from top to bottom no one involved in MLS comes close to being perfect. Lads, we all know what this all comes down to is DeRo getting a royal b*tch-slap from MLS, MLSE, TFC and Winter, and the resultant second-hand b*tch-slap provided to his fanboys.

Seriously, Winter could at the same time win the MLS cup, develop the next Messi, cure cancer and compose a great symphony and a certain few would still be nipping at his ankles. Sad, but true.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 10:37 AM
"I am pretty locked in my thinking of Winter's first season because i haven't seen any improvement that is actually measurable in a way that shows in that stats that matter"

Just for the record, 123Elite, the hard stats show the team made considerable improvement since the transfer window from the start of the year. So there is measurable difference from the start to the end. Even Roogsy's own big spreadsheets confirm that!

Canary10
11-07-2011, 10:56 AM
One of the other criticisms of Winter that gets thrown around here is that he can’t work with non-DPs. First of all, I find the argument that the coach’s success was due to bringing in good players as a strike against him a bit ludicrous.

But getting back to the point, this is actually one area where I feel Winter excels. It might have been an accident that players like Matt Stinson, Doneil Henry and especially Ashton Morgan came into their own in 2011 under Winter’s coaching. But I don’t think so.

The highlight goal of the year for me was against Colorado (also happens to be a game where Winter answered his tactical critics and reverted to a five man back line to keep the defence sound, but that’s another issue.) The goal started from a brilliant right to left switch by Eric Avila (where was he at the start of the season?) that found Ashton Morgan making a brilliant open run down the left side. Morgan brought it down in stride and made a run down the left flank.

Just a month or two before that, I was complaining along with the SSHs in my section about how completely horrible the crosses have been all year. Well Morgan whipped a perfect low ball in the gap behind the back four and in front of the goalkeeper to a charging Koevermans who tapped the ball in. Never did our section complain about the quality of the crosses after that goal.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 11:01 AM
im not going to get into the other points, i havent had my coffee yet.

i just find it odd that after the transfer window closed it became about the DPs. why is it that if anything wrong that happened before, it was winters fault, but when things started going our way it was solely because of our DPs with no credit to our skipper?

How about this? Let's give Winter credit for both halves? I'd be ok with that. My problem is that what I am seeing is that people have been giving him credit for the 2nd half (which I am not even that impressed with, it was "better" in so much as it wasn't historically bad like our first half was) and completely giving him a pass on the first half. It would seem "not being bad" is enough to make people happy and in the world of sports, that is laughable.

Now if you are concerned as to why the DPs are being given credit and not the "skipper", why not point to some evidence, any evidence that the change in form was NOT due to the DPs? That would put that particular argument to rest wouldn't it? Is it mere coincidence that the change in form happened when they arrived?

By the way, in footy, skipper is usually referred to the captain of the players, not the manager.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 11:23 AM
How about this? Let's give Winter credit for both halves? I'd be ok with that. My problem is that what I am seeing is that people have been giving him credit for the 2nd half (which I am not even that impressed with, it was "better" in so much as it wasn't historically bad like our first half was) and completely giving him a pass on the first half. It would seem "not being bad" is enough to make people happy and in the world of sports, that is laughable.


Don't mis-characterize people's opinions.

I don't give Winter a free pass. However, I recognize that he was brought in too late to get the season off to a good start (read that 100 days article, Winter arrived, and the next day he was on a plane to Turkey, with players he had never met). My criticism of the first half of the season is that he waited too long to kick those players out of the clubhouse door. That's not a "free pass." It also took him a while to learn effective strategy in an MLS context. That's not a "free pass" either.

That's why for the season I'm giving him a "3,' while for October alone, I'm giving him a "4."




Now if you are concerned as to why the DPs are being given credit and not the "skipper", why not point to some evidence, any evidence that the change in form was NOT due to the DPs? That would put that particular argument to rest wouldn't it? Is it mere coincidence that the change in form happened when they arrived?


Asking a question doesn't mean you've proved anything. Why not point to some evidence that the change was due to the DPs? You can't.

Beach_Red
11-07-2011, 12:20 PM
How about this? Let's give Winter credit for both halves? I'd be ok with that.


Sure, but you have to admit navigating a management structure like MLSE takes a while. Especially for the guy coming in year five after four mismanaged years. So, if it took half a season to sort things out (on the field and in the offices - remember, just days before Winter was hired someone else - who's still with the team - was trading away draft picks) and then half a season to start making changes, that's a good year.

123 elite
11-07-2011, 12:24 PM
Don't mis-characterize people's opinions.



You just said my post said i wanted mediocrity right now when it said no such thing.

As much as i tend to repeat myself here, many people on here point to Arena's poor record at one time to in some way vindicate Winter's performance so far particularly with regards the first half of the season. I see no connection. How can you use someone else starting crap and then coming good as a measure of anything. You can equally say there are a million managers out there that started crap and remained crap. I also don't see a huge improvment in the second half of the season. I see some improvment and i look forward to more next season but i take the season as a whole. Do you look at May 2010 as proof that Preki was building a fabulous team ? He got 10 from 15 that month so why not? The reality is that if this team were to go out against any MLS team right now without Danny K and Frings in the side they would likely not beat many of them. So we are really only a bit further forward than we were in June because we are entirely reliant on 2 players to make us tick. After the experimentation and turnaround of players in the first and last halves of the season i expected a bit more than that.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 12:45 PM
You just said my post said i wanted mediocrity right now when it said no such thing.

As much as i tend to repeat myself here, many people on here point to Arena's poor record at one time to in some way vindicate Winter's performance so far particularly with regards the first half of the season. I see no connection.

OK, you tell me what level would be acceptable in a rebuilding year.

As far as the no connection with Arena, there is an obvious connection, which all rebuilding teams go through. If you can't see that, wow.

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 12:47 PM
The bulk of the first half of the season was unsuccessful due to a mish-mash of new untested players, old failures, and Winter's lack of MLS experience. You can lay the blame on Winter if you want, I know there are fans that just dislike him in general for whatever reasonable and/or unreasonable reason. The bottom line is we all knew the team would be re-vamped and re-shaped when Klinsmann was brought in as a consultant, and if you expected some magical turn around where we won as much if not more than we lost, you were hoping for too much. The realists expected bitter defeats and growing pains. At the end of the season most of us are now focusing on the growing instead of the pain, because we had our hopes so low, that things could only get better, and they have.

Preki took a decent team that ultimately failed in 2009 and blew it up and fell flat on his face, even despite the fact he had MLS experience and made the playoffs with Chivas. Then Winter is signed late in the offseason, and has limited time to bring in some players he can use in a 4-3-3 and decide which players from that 2010 disaster are a good fit. Then he cuts/trades a bunch of deadweight and signs players who can string a few passes together. Then our academy kids start improving, we sign two strong DPs, and we start winning against some decent teams. Most importantly we start playing football. I've never seen TFC play as well as they have been right now. To still dwell on the losses of the first half of the season is almost mind boggling, you have to realize you are focusing on an entirely different team of players that began the year to the team that ended it. Even if you hate Winter, and think we got lucky getting into the CCL quarters, you can't deny you saw some very respectable playing in the latter half of the season after Winters changes were made. We can actually keep possession of the ball for more than 3-4 strings of passes. That is one of the biggest improvements in the history of TFC. Have you seen a prior team of ours do that before?

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 01:05 PM
How about this? Let's give Winter credit for both halves? I'd be ok with that.

Fair enough amigo.

By the same token, is it reasonable to acknowledge that the club improved dramatically and achieved a modicum of success once the new management regime effectively put their stamp on the roster after the summer transfer window?

Is it also reasonable to be somewhat optimistic moving forward with the nucleus of the roster already in place and a full off season to shore up the deficiencies on the backline?

123 elite
11-07-2011, 01:22 PM
Aren't we always rebuilding ?
I wanted a bit of consistency in the plan. Some players like Peterson were playing regularly and all over the park when most people recognised his uselessness long ago. Others were barely tested before being dumped. Players were brought in i assume because they were observed playing in a style that Winter saw as useful for 'his plan' and for one reason or another were rejected fairly quickly (Tchani and Gordon being 2 ) yet we have the likes of Iro allowed to cock up repeatedly and still retain a place on the team. I am sure there were many behind the scenes things going on regarding friction between players coaches and upper management but i am only comparing what i see on the park to what i saw last year. Other people can entertain themselves till the cows come home about contracts and bust ups and locker groups... i don't care and most people in the stadium don't care either. At the end of this season the pluses for me have been Danny K, Frings, Plata and occasionally Ecks and the fact we now have 2 goalies that are match experienced. Others have shown a bit of promise. But i can't honestly say that the likes of Garcia, Barrett, Labrocca and all those eastern european guys have been replaced with anything significantly better. The one thing those guys had was a familiarity with each other. The side this year must have trouble remembering each others names. Thats the other thing i would accept in the first year of rebuilding... a bit a patience with what you had. I don't know any manager who has had such a high turnaround of players in such a short time adn i don't know how anyone can expect it to be successful. Even taken to extremes like Man City that clearout approach didn't pay off particularly well other than to send out a look whose got cash now signal to the world. So to answer your question ... patience and a measured approach to new talent. I don't pretend to have the answers but if i'm wrong then there are only 2 more league places of wrong to be.

__wowza
11-07-2011, 01:46 PM
How about this? Let's give Winter credit for both halves? I'd be ok with that. My problem is that what I am seeing is that people have been giving him credit for the 2nd half (which I am not even that impressed with, it was "better" in so much as it wasn't historically bad like our first half was) and completely giving him a pass on the first half. It would seem "not being bad" is enough to make people happy and in the world of sports, that is laughable.

Now if you are concerned as to why the DPs are being given credit and not the "skipper", why not point to some evidence, any evidence that the change in form was NOT due to the DPs? That would put that particular argument to rest wouldn't it? Is it mere coincidence that the change in form happened when they arrived?

By the way, in footy, skipper is usually referred to the captain of the players, not the manager.


i'm completely ok with giving winter credit on both halves. many can make the argument that other coaches with no prior MLS experience have done alright, but these are the exception, not the norm.

the first half of the season i can look at that winter didn't know what he was getting himself into. a new formation (regardless of the players he brought in pre-season) is difficult to implement, and im sure that MLSE made him hang on to a few people. couple that with dero/attakora drama and two of our starting centre backs going out with injuries and i can give him a pass. i'm not saying that he couldn't have handled it better, but i will say that any one of these would be difficult for a new coach to deal with, let alone all three.

the burden of proof needs to be placed here on those making the DP argument. you can't say "the DPs helped the club, prove me wrong" but for the sake of the debate i'll put this out: do you think winter had a hand in who came here? or how they were deployed?

we've seen good players suck under previous care and then go on to have fruitful careers but the way i'm seeing it now, all of the players we've let go haven't exactly excelled on their other teams. the only exception i see is dero, but even NY couldnt fit him into their lineup.

the second half of the season, we have gotten better, gotten better as in "not that bad" which i'll agree is no reason to celebrate. however, the celebration isn't because we're "not that bad" it's because many of us feel we're improving.

it's not a coincidence that we started improving because the DPs arrived (although dunfield, and avila have been solid as well), but to dismiss the fact that they've been brought in and handled correctly as a result of winter is questionable at best. it could also be coupled with the fact that winter has a better grasp on the league, the players, the schedule, the team, etc.

starter
11-07-2011, 01:52 PM
Sounds like a classic glass half empty debate. There was some pulse in the team in the second half, but the MLS is improving, and TFC need to do more to work its' way into playoff contention. With all his shortcomings, I feel that learning on the job AW is better than any other coach we have had. BTW I am in glass half full camp.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 02:26 PM
the burden of proof needs to be placed here on those making the DP argument. you can't say "the DPs helped the club, prove me wrong" but for the sake of the debate i'll put this out: do you think winter had a hand in who came here? or how they were deployed?

The proof is already there and has been presented. I am asking you to debunk it. The stats show a marked difference not within months but within weeks of the DP's arrival, our stats took a marked turn for the better. (Better being relative from the absolute shit we were in the first half.) Interestingly enough, the rate of speed upon which we improved actually supported my point of view that improvement did not need months or years as some suggest, but with the right personnel can happen in a short amount of time. The stats show Danny K being involved in a significant amount of goals that we weren't scoring before his arrival. It showed defensive numbers improve almost immediately once Frings was inserted into the lineup. Are you telling me these are coincidences? What other proof would suffice in order to determine that it was the DPs that impacted performance and not the coach who changed very little in the weeks following their arrival?

So how is linking the two coincidence arriving at the wrong conclusion? I'd love to hear it. What changed that did not involve the DPs that made the team perform better and proof is there of that?

__wowza
11-07-2011, 02:26 PM
snapshot after 104 votes:

winter currently sits at 79.80%
which is a 3.99 star average rating
and that translates to a B+ (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grade_%28education%29#Ontario)

up: .23 stars and a half grade from september
up: .78 stars and a grade from august

Canary10
11-07-2011, 02:28 PM
Just to put some stats behind the debate. This show the 21 games in the first part of the season vs. the 13 since the transfer window opened and Frings etc. were able to play. Objectively there is improvement.


.................................................. .First Half .................. Since Frings (MLS)
Games........................................ 21............................. 13
PPG............................................ 0.81 ......................... 1.15
Points over 34 games ................. 28 .......................... 39
Goals scored per game .............. 0.71 ......................... 1.46
Goals conceded per game ......... 1.62 ......................... 1.77
GF .............................................. 15 ........................... 19
GA ............................................. 34 ........................... 23

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 02:31 PM
Don't mis-characterize people's opinions.

Really? You're saying that to me? The guy who has his opinion mischaracterized on a regular basis? Funny I've never seen you ask others not to do the same.

As for the impact of the DPs, my posts for 2 months have done this. I am practically the only one who throws up stats, numbers, data and evidence to this fact on a weekly basis only to be answered with "stats aren't everything" and now you guys are asking for "evidence"? You guys? The ones that don't provide any evidence whatsoever and always point to a "feeling" the team is better but can never quantify by how much?

I must be a masochist.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 02:32 PM
Just to put some stats behind the debate. This show the 21 games in the first part of the season vs. the 13 since the transfer window opened and Frings etc. were able to play. Objectively there is improvement.


.................................................. .First Half .................. Since Frings (MLS)
Games........................................ 21............................. 13
PPG............................................ 0.81 ......................... 1.15
Points over 34 games ................. 28 .......................... 39
Goals scored per game .............. 0.71 ......................... 1.46
Goals conceded per game ......... 1.62 ......................... 1.77
GF .............................................. 15 ........................... 19
GA ............................................. 34 ........................... 23


Improvements in almost every major category. Surely the timing it is simply a coincidence. This has more to do with Winter's strategy. We would have improved like this with or without the DPs.

__wowza
11-07-2011, 02:35 PM
The proof is already there and has been presented. I am asking you to debunk it. The stats show a marked difference not within months but within weeks of the DP's arrival, our stats took a marked turn for the better. (Better being relative from the absolute shit we were in the first half.) It shows Danny K being involved in a significant amount of goals that we weren't scoring before his arrival. What other proof would suffice in order to determine that it was the DPs that impacted performance and not the coach who changed very little in the weeks following their arrival?

im not debating that it's sufficient proof, i'm saying the proof is relevant to whose looking at it. where i see winter deploying the players to get the ball to koevermans, it sounds like you see koevermans goals as individual effort, and not the sum of it's parts. the tactics deployed to get the ball up-field, the players who assist in the efforts to get the ball into the box, etc.

alan gordon could be seen deployed in the same fashion as danny k prior to his arrival and boasted an equally impressive strike rate before his injury, yet these weren't the tactics we used when we played maicon santos in the same role.


again, where you see a coincidence with the DPs arriving to when our fortunes turned. i see us as being provided with the relevant tools to play a style that fits the team that was wanted.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 02:37 PM
"So how is linking the two coincidence arriving at the wrong conclusion? I'd love to hear it. What changed that did not involve the DPs that made the team perform better and proof is there of that?"

There were more than just DPs brought in.

Stands to reason that if you replace players who are actively trying to screw up the system you are trying to implement with players who are trying to play the system you are trying to implement, you'll get better results.

In fact, Toronto lost the first 2 games since Koevermans and Frings started. The first game they got a result was against Portland (2-2 draw), which I believe was Ashton Morgan's first full start, Johnson's first start, and Marosevic came off the bench. Avila played his first game the next game, which was also a result (3-3 draw with DC United). So really, it was the non-DP new players that got the results.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 02:39 PM
I'm glad we're at least all in agreement that they improved over the year! :)

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 02:41 PM
Improvements in almost every major category. Surely the timing it is simply a coincidence. This has more to do with Winter's strategy. We would have improved like this with or without the DPs.

Winter's strategy may or may not have changed, but the bottom line is if Winter tells a player to make a run when scenario A is occurring on the field, get the ball and pass it off to one of these two specific players, and the guy can't collect the ball properly or spot one of the two specific players because he is occupied by the defender and loses possession, it is not the coach it is the talent.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 02:51 PM
Really? You're saying that to me? The guy who has his opinion mischaracterized on a regular basis? Funny I've never seen you ask others not to do the same.



You say that we are giving Winter a free pass. I expect you to back up that statement.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 02:52 PM
In fact, Toronto lost the first 2 games since Koevermans and Frings started. The first game they got a result was against Portland (2-2 draw), which I believe was Ashton Morgan's first full start, Johnson's first start, and Marosevic came off the bench. Avila played his first game the next game, which was also a result (3-3 draw with DC United). So really, it was the non-DP new players that got the results.

ZING!!!!

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 02:57 PM
"So how is linking the two coincidence arriving at the wrong conclusion? I'd love to hear it. What changed that did not involve the DPs that made the team perform better and proof is there of that?"

There were more than just DPs brought in.

Stands to reason that if you replace players who are actively trying to screw up the system you are trying to implement with players who are trying to play the system you are trying to implement, you'll get better results.

In fact, Toronto lost the first 2 games since Koevermans and Frings started. The first game they got a result was against Portland (2-2 draw), which I believe was Ashton Morgan's first full start, Johnson's first start, and Marosevic came off the bench. Avila played his first game the next game, which was also a result (3-3 draw with DC United). So really, it was the non-DP new players that got the results.

First of all, that scenario should be unacceptable to most around here who were saying such an impact could not happen in a short period of time. It needs to happen with minimum a year right?

Second, the question is do those results happen without the DPs? Without Frings winning the ball? Without Danny K drawing defenders and making smart runs into open spaces? Remember that 2-2 game you refer to Danny K scored one of those 2 goals and yet you're pointed to players other than one of the goal scorers? Odd.

If you want to take a micro look at the season, you could look at the record of the team in the 10 previous games and the 10 games following in all competitions.

Previous 10 games
2-3-5
9 points out of 30
-12 goal diff

Immediate 10 games upon their arrival
4-2-4
14 points out of 30
+2 goal diff

Coincidence? Or coaching brilliance?

And the most damning thing about this stat. The 10 games previous to their arrival had given Winter 6 months to work with these players. The immediate 10 games following their arrival had many new players. It debunks so many of the rationalizations on this board that I am thinking people simply don't want to admit it.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 02:59 PM
You say that we are giving Winter a free pass. I expect you to back up that statement.


How much hell did you give Winter at the Town Hall for the shit start to the year, the 3rd worst record in the league and the -23 goal diff? Or did you fawn over his mastery and genius?

My backup is this board.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 03:03 PM
First of all, that scenario should be unacceptable to most around here who were saying such an impact could not happen in a short period of time. It needs to happen with minimum a year right?



No, that's not true. We're saying that it takes a year to get the whole rebuilding thing done. Anyone who thinks the defense doesn't need rebuilding is delusional.






And the most damning thing about this stat. The 10 games previous to their arrival had given Winter 6 months to work with these players. The immediate 10 games following their arrival had many new players. It debunks so many of the rationalizations on this board that I am thinking people simply don't want to admit it.

You're missing the main point of the argument as you focus on the details. As someone who has coached himself, I'll tell you that if you have crap players, no amount of coaching brilliance will make your team a winner. The coaching brilliance is what makes good players perform better but you can't turn crap into gold.

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 03:04 PM
First of all, that scenario should be unacceptable to most around here who were saying such an impact could not happen in a short period of time. It needs to happen with minimum a year right?

Second, the question is do those results happen without the DPs? Without Frings winning the ball? Without Danny K drawing defenders and making smart runs into open spaces? Remember that 2-2 game you refer to Danny K scored one of those 2 goals and yet you're pointed to players other than one of the goal scorers? Odd.

If you want to take a micro look at the season, you could look at the record of the team in the 10 previous games and the 10 games following in all competitions.

Previous 10 games
2-3-5
9 points out of 30
-12 goal diff

Immediate 10 games upon their arrival
4-2-4
14 points out of 30
+2 goal diff

Coincidence? Or coaching brilliance?

And the most damning thing about this stat. The 10 games previous to their arrival had given Winter 6 months to work with these players. The immediate 10 games following their arrival had many new players. It debunks so many of the rationalizations on this board that I am thinking people simply don't want to admit it.

One can just as easily draw the conclusion that the club wasn't able to achieve consistent results until Winter and Mariner identified and acquired enough players in key roles to execute Winter's system effectively.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 03:06 PM
How much hell did you give Winter at the Town Hall for the shit start to the year, the 3rd worst record in the league and the -23 goal diff? Or did you fawn over his mastery and genius?

My backup is this board.

That's an over-generalization. I can't think of any regular poster who is giving Winter a free pass. If you think "everyone" is, then you need to re-read the postings. BTW, not thinking he's an absolutely terrible coach doesn't mean you're giving him a "free pass." Most of us are quite measured in our approach. My factual backup is that Winter had poorer ratings in these polls until he started showing improvement. That's better than a general impression.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 03:08 PM
"Second, the question is do those results happen without the DPs? Without Frings winning the ball? Without Danny K drawing defenders and making smart runs into open spaces? Remember that 2-2 game you refer to Danny K scored one of those 2 goals and yet you're pointed to players other than one of the goal scorers? Odd."

Oh come on. Of course they had a huge difference. But those weren't the only changes made. What about Johnson, Avila, Marosevic, Morgan, etc. You're taking only the part of the changes you think support your argument (even though I still can't get my head around saying that bringing in good players is proof of how bad a coach is, but whatever). Go watch the game in 6 for Colorado and watch Avila's ball out to Morgan, who puts a perfect cross in to Koevermans who scores a perfect goal. That play is the summary of all the changes that made the second half TFC a good team.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 03:11 PM
One can just as easily draw the conclusion that the club wasn't able to achieve consistent results until Winter and Mariner identified and acquired enough players in key roles to execute Winter's system effectively.

Thanks for posting that. That's the real answer to Roogsy's question.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 03:12 PM
Go watch the game in 6 for Colorado and watch Avila's ball out to Morgan, who puts a perfect cross in to Koevermans who scores a perfect goal. That play is the summary of all the changes that made the second half TFC a good team.

How'd they learn to play that way? could it be *gasp* the coaching?

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 03:14 PM
Thanks for posting that. That's the real answer to Roogsy's question.

Cheers.

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 03:17 PM
He worked 6 months with no-talent deadweight.

Let's look at the lineup the game before Frings / Koevs debut.

Saturday July 09 Houston 1 TFC 0

Stefan Frei; Dan Gargan, Richard Eckersley, Ty Harden, Danleigh Borman (Gianluca Zavarise 59'); Javier Martina, Tony Tchani, Mikael Yourassowsky; Jacob Peterson (Nick Soolsma 69'), Alan Gordon, Joao Plata ... Substitutes Not Used: Milos Kocic, Doneil Henry, Demitrius Omphroy, Matt Stinson, Nathan Sturgis

I have highlighted in red the players that we had been using for 6 months under Winter that were traded or benched after the flurry of signings starting with the DP's.

Now let's look at the lineup used 3 games later where we achieved our first post-DP result

Saturday July 30 Portland 2 Toronto 2

Stefan Frei, Ty Harden (Javier Martina 68), Ashtone Morgan, Richard Eckersley, Andy Iro, Julian de Guzman (Terry Dunfield 61), Torsten Frings, Ryan Johnson, Nick Soolsma (Peri Marosevic 46), Danny Koevermans, Joao Plata.

Substitutes Not Used: Danleigh Borman, Doneil Henry, Matt Stinson, Milos Kocic.



So to clarify my point and that of others: Talent makes all the difference. Keep in mind the team was still under-performing, but they have only been together for a couple of weeks at this point and they still beat RSL 1-0, Columbus 4-2, Colorado 2-1, with a bunch of ties, losses, and the epic beating of Dallas 3-0 in CCL.

Let's see what Winter can do with a talented group of players after 6 months.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 03:24 PM
For one more comparison, this is the best season we had (2009). We're not far off the points pace. Quite a bit better in goals for. Quite a bit worse in goals against. Leads me to the conclusion that we need some better central defenders....


Games .................................... 30
PPG ..................................... 1.30
Points over 34 games.............. 44
Goals scored per game ......... 1.23
Goals conceded per game...... 1.53
GF .......................................... 37
GA ....................................... 46

ensco
11-07-2011, 03:35 PM
I'm going to wait for the full year poll.

I'm glad they spent the DP money well (so far), like Avila (if we keep him) and RJ, and was happy about beating Dallas....but that's about it. There were many, many negatives. I think the experience of having eaten thousands of dollars in tickets, is one I won't soon forget.

If MLSE hadn't in desperation given Winter millions to spend on veterans (a move that made little on field sense, and may come back to haunt us in 2012/2013), where would we be?

Brooker
11-07-2011, 03:37 PM
How'd they learn to play that way? could it be *gasp* the coaching?

surely the DP's must have taught them. :D

__wowza
11-07-2011, 04:28 PM
I'm going to wait for the full year poll.

full year poll was going to happen after the playoffs as well as an overall approval for the club and players. it was inevitable that a full year discussion pops up, it's popped up in every one of the "rate the coach" threads

123 elite
11-07-2011, 04:38 PM
He worked 6 months with no-talent deadweight.

Let's look at the lineup the game before Frings / Koevs debut.

Saturday July 09 Houston 1 TFC 0

Stefan Frei; Dan Gargan, Richard Eckersley, Ty Harden, Danleigh Borman (Gianluca Zavarise 59'); Javier Martina, Tony Tchani, Mikael Yourassowsky; Jacob Peterson (Nick Soolsma 69'), Alan Gordon, Joao Plata ... Substitutes Not Used: Milos Kocic, Doneil Henry, Demitrius Omphroy, Matt Stinson, Nathan Sturgis

I have highlighted in red the players that we had been using for 6 months under Winter that were traded or benched after the flurry of signings starting with the DP's.

Now let's look at the lineup used 3 games later where we achieved our first post-DP result

Saturday July 30 Portland 2 Toronto 2

Stefan Frei, Ty Harden (Javier Martina 68), Ashtone Morgan, Richard Eckersley, Andy Iro, Julian de Guzman (Terry Dunfield 61), Torsten Frings, Ryan Johnson, Nick Soolsma (Peri Marosevic 46), Danny Koevermans, Joao Plata.

Substitutes Not Used: Danleigh Borman, Doneil Henry, Matt Stinson, Milos Kocic.



So to clarify my point and that of others: Talent makes all the difference. Keep in mind the team was still under-performing, but they have only been together for a couple of weeks at this point and they still beat RSL 1-0, Columbus 4-2, Colorado 2-1, with a bunch of ties, losses, and the epic beating of Dallas 3-0 in CCL.

Let's see what Winter can do with a talented group of players after 6 months.

He brought in most of those players in red

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 04:57 PM
He brought in most of those players in red

Maybe so but he also traded the players in red for the players in black. Time constraints and limited selection of available players in January/February have something to do with it. Gordon for Labrocca was a good stop-gap until Danny K. was available to play. Borman and Tchani were brought over for DeRo, and Tchani traded over for Iro - both stop-gap defenders. It's still all a work in progress. The point of my post was that Winter himself isn't fully to blame, it's the quality of players, which he and Mariner have been working on non-stop since they got here to improve.

123 elite
11-07-2011, 05:07 PM
So moving out players in order to move in those players in red to then move them out for some of the players in black so that at the end of the season we can say that once we fix our defence and add a few midfielders and maybe a forward and we could make the playoffs in 2012 is an exercise in master coaching, tactics and man/resource management.

I think i get it now.

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 05:13 PM
So moving out players in order to move in those players in red to then move them out for some of the players in black so that at the end of the season we can say that once we fix our defence and add a few midfielders and maybe a forward and we could make the playoffs in 2012 is an exercise in master coaching, tactics and man/resource management.

I think i get it now.

So Maxim Usanov, Nick Garcia, Mista, Raivis Hščanovičs, Gabe Gala and Joseph Nane were all the type of quality players you'd like to still have on the team?

Also, when a coach joins a new team, is he required to keep 100% of the same team as the previous coach?

edit: and just to add, we only need 2 central defenders to be competitive next year IMO. Too bad Cann and Williams both got injured around the same time, who knows what the rest of the season would have turned out like all else being equal. We would still have Tchani instead of Iro thats for sure.

123 elite
11-07-2011, 05:20 PM
I wasn't a fan of any of those players (i would rate a few of them higher than Peterson though) but to replace like for like only to do it again months later is a pointless exercise that achieves nothing except disruption and an unsettled squad. The results of the first half of the season suggest that could have been a factor. Like i said, i judged Winter on all season and many on here are selective about what part of the season he is judged on. Which to me is as daft as judging Preki on his results last May.

Ossington Mental Youth
11-07-2011, 05:37 PM
So Maxim Usanov, Nick Garcia, Mista, Raivis Hščanovičs, Gabe Gala and Joseph Nane were all the type of quality players you'd like to still have on the team?

Also, when a coach joins a new team, is he required to keep 100% of the same team as the previous coach?

edit: and just to add, we only need 2 central defenders to be competitive next year IMO. Too bad Cann and Williams both got injured around the same time, who knows what the rest of the season would have turned out like all else being equal. We would still have Tchani instead of Iro thats for sure.


agree with everything but teh Tchani bit, even then he was a surplus in his position and im sure we would have traded him, prob just for someone else

ensco
11-07-2011, 06:11 PM
OK since the full year poll thread seems to be in full swing! :D....

The Tchani trade to Columbus casts a real pall over the WinterMariner player acquisition record. They were both serious assets, just as Dax McCarthy, the player NY got for Dero, is. To wind up with nothing valuable for Dero/Tchani, is a major grease fire.

Most of the other notable new players are rentals or DPs. RJ being the exception (they get a gold star from me on that one).

They sorta kinda turned it around only by getting MLSE to spend huge guaranteed money, on older players, which is a classic mistake for a young team. Long-term what was done this summer is likely to cause issues, our hands are now tied for two more years. (It may be the DP moves were in part dictated by MLSE, they desparately needed something for the SSHs. We know Klinsy had a big part in getting Frings in. So it's probably not fair to lay all of this criticism on the DP strategy at the feet of WinterMariner.)

I don't see how the full year can be more than a 2. Without the NCC/CCL miracle, and the Columbus win, it would be a 1.

Couchy81
11-07-2011, 06:18 PM
I wasn't a fan of any of those players (i would rate a few of them higher than Peterson though) but to replace like for like only to do it again months later is a pointless exercise that achieves nothing except disruption and an unsettled squad. The results of the first half of the season suggest that could have been a factor. Like i said, i judged Winter on all season and many on here are selective about what part of the season he is judged on. Which to me is as daft as judging Preki on his results last May.

Fair enough, but I wouldn't say it's like for like, I'd say it's baby steps in establishing a squad of talented players and was to be expected. There is a reason the players that didn't see the first match of the season like the Usanovs and Mistas and Hscanovics were released and aren't playing right now whereas the Martinas and Yourassovskys are still decent bench players, and we were able to acquire valuable assets like Ryan Johnson and Avila through trade. Every move has meaning, its not just a waste of resources as you suggested before.


agree with everything but teh Tchani bit, even then he was a surplus in his position and im sure we would have traded him, prob just for someone else

I'm not so sure, we picked up Dunfield on July 14 and traded Tchani for Iro on the 15th, Winter needed a bench midfielder.

Yohan
11-07-2011, 06:20 PM
OK since the full year poll thread seems to be in full swing! :D....

The Tchani trade to Columbus casts a real pall over the WinterMariner player acquisition record. They were both serious assets, just as Dax McCarthy, the player NY got for Dero, is. To wind up with nothing valuable for Dero/Tchani, is a major grease fire.

Most of the other notable new players are rentals or DPs. RJ being the exception (they get a gold star from me on that one).

They sorta kinda turned it around only by getting MLSE to spend huge guaranteed money, on older players, which is a classic mistake for a young team. Long-term what was done this summer is likely to cause issues, our hands are now tied for two more years. (It may be the DP moves were in part dictated by MLSE, they desparately needed something for the SSHs. We know Klinsy had a big part in getting Frings in. So it's probably not fair to lay all of this criticism on the DP strategy at the feet of WinterMariner.)

I don't see how the full year can be more than a 2. Without the NCC/CCL miracle, and the Columbus win, it would be a 1.avila is rental too?

you call it rental, i call it good depth

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 06:27 PM
One can just as easily draw the conclusion that the club wasn't able to achieve consistent results until Winter and Mariner identified and acquired enough players in key roles to execute Winter's system effectively.

Apparently the only way to execute Winter's system effectively is WITH DPs, hardly a vote of confidence for the system or the coach. Because otherwise what we are really saying that Avila and Johnson is the key for the system to work and not the DPs. Sorry but that is almost too incredible to believe. But that would have to be the case, otherwise how would you explain the immediate change in performance from one month to the next? Mere coincidence? That is fundamentally the argument here from you guys.

And yet going forward, how do you also explain the difficulty in scoring when Danny K is out? I'd hate to see how our defense goes back to their old ways if Frings goes out also but I bet it would.

What pains me is that the evidence is right there before you and yet people are willing to chalk it all up to good timing and the confluence of all good things for TFC coming together at the right time that just happens to coincide with the arrival of the DPs. The fact that the team wasn't anywhere near effective nor competent prior to their arrival should be taken as inconsequential?

I think next year will prove either side right or wrong. I think despite having the 3rd highest payroll and 3 DPs we will simply be another average team. Hardly the reward for suffering through the ugliness of this year and the previous 4 years and hardly worth the price of our payroll. And even worse, people will be happy with it. I guess when you've crawled through the dessert, even muddy water tastes delicious.

ensco
11-07-2011, 06:29 PM
avila is rental too?

you call it rental, i call it good depth

He's out of contract Dec 31. There was a TFC website story a few days ago. He said he likes it here.

I like Avila. If he re-signs at a sensible number, I'll gladly give WinterMariner a gold star for that too.

But these guys are tricky to sign when their first contract ends - this is the stage where Barrett and Wynne tripled their salaries and went up to $300K (or whatever it is they make). It's why Avila was available, I'd guess.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 06:35 PM
That's an over-generalization. I can't think of any regular poster who is giving Winter a free pass. If you think "everyone" is, then you need to re-read the postings. BTW, not thinking he's an absolutely terrible coach doesn't mean you're giving him a "free pass." Most of us are quite measured in our approach. My factual backup is that Winter had poorer ratings in these polls until he started showing improvement. That's better than a general impression.

That only proves my point of a short memory. Like a wife that keeps forgiving her cheating husband. The fact that most people publicly state that they had "no expecations" is better evidence of the fact that they would have accepted pretty much anything.

A free pass indicates a lack of expectation and accountability. The only way there wouldn't be a "free pass" is if there was evidence of expectations and accountability. Not some poll of satisfaction based on whether we win the previous game immediately before the poll comes out. Where in this group of fans has there been a broad sense of expectation or any demands of accountability? Other than the small group of vocal "anti-Winters" I have hardly seen any if at all. But if you'd like to point some out, I'd be very interested in seeing them.

And no, giving someone "till next year" isn't an expectation, especially if you're rating this year.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 06:36 PM
He's out of contract Dec 31. There was a TFC website story a few days ago. He said he likes it here.

I like Avila. If he re-signs at a sensible number, I'll gladly give WinterMariner a gold star for that too.

But these guys are tricky to sign when their first contract ends - this is the stage where Barrett and Wynne tripled their salaries and went up to $300K (or whatever it is they make). It's why Avila was available, I'd guess.


There's an interesting story about Avila and this team if you want to send me a PM to find out.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 06:43 PM
Winter's strategy may or may not have changed, but the bottom line is if Winter tells a player to make a run when scenario A is occurring on the field, get the ball and pass it off to one of these two specific players, and the guy can't collect the ball properly or spot one of the two specific players because he is occupied by the defender and loses possession, it is not the coach it is the talent.


According to Winter himself, the system is designed to supposedly have interchangeable parts. But my argument is that without 2 specific players, the system falls apart regardless of what it intends to do. If you take the players out, it doesn't matter if Winter tells players to do something under Scenario A, what was proven in the first half of the year is that he can't make the players or the system work without an increase in talent level. And I am suggesting that this is a poor way to build a team for this particular league.

Europe? Sure.

MLS? No.

With my clients, I discuss something called the "efficiency frontier". Basically, that is the concept of getting the best return for the least risk. In the case of TFC, our "efficiency" is incredibly poor. Next year, I believe we will have teams built on less that will perform better. And we will be among the top spenders in the league, but I doubt we will be one of the top teams in the league. TFC would be an inefficient product. Lord knows we were this year.

Dv23
11-07-2011, 07:49 PM
I always agree with what Roogsy has to say but then everyone always disagrees with him. I don't get it.

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 08:00 PM
Apparently the only way to execute Winter's system effectively is WITH DPs, hardly a vote of confidence for the system or the coach. Because otherwise what we are really saying that Avila and Johnson is the key for the system to work and not the DPs. Sorry but that is almost too incredible to believe. But that would have to be the case, otherwise how would you explain the immediate change in performance from one month to the next? Mere coincidence? That is fundamentally the argument here from you guys.


The lineup that finished the season and advanced in the CCL was the culmination of several player acquisitions under the new regime, the bulk of which were orchestrated during the summer transfer window.

The immediate change in performance coincided with the simultaneous arrival of several new players (Frings, Koevermans, Johnson, Avila, Dunfield, Marosevic), as well as the form of existing roster players (JDG, Plata, Eckersley, Soolsma), and the dramatic improvement of Academy products (Morgan, Stinson).

The DPs were key elements of an extensive roster overhaul that complimented the existing supporting cast, resulting in a team that was able to function as a far more cohesive unit under Winter's tutelage.

Waggy
11-07-2011, 08:27 PM
I like how people are arguing about facts and stuff regarding peoples OPINIONS of how winter did. As if any of you are going to change anyone elses minds about how they think the month of October went. Anywho ya, if you ignore all the good stuff Winter did pretty shitty this year. And if you ignore the bad stuff Winter did amazing this year. I think Winter, like the team, got better as the year went on. As a first year coach he seemed to be pretty good at adapting strategies if his first attempts didn't succeed (like the resting of players before big games). And he and Mariner certainly succeeding in raising the talent level of the club, as well as the attitude in the locker room. In October I'd rate Winter a 4, over the year I'd give him a 3. I'm very optimistic about next year, and should my expectations not be met then I will be VERY unhappy. However for once we enter an offseason without wondering what direction the club will be going. For once we enter an offseason with pieces in place to really build on. For once it seems like there's some positivity from the locker room and from the FO about the team. A good 2nd half can spawn a good start to the next season (see the Toronto Maple Leafs), I just hope complaicency doesn't become a factor (see the Toronto Maple Leafs. maybe). I greatly look forward to seeing how this team progresses and comes together as the winter goes on. Winter, after a full season*, hasn't given me a reason yet not to have faith in him, so I'll continue to have faith in him (same with Mariner).


*however winter, the season, has had plenty of opportunities to show that it belongs in a discussion of seasons with fall and spring, and even the vaunted summer. after many chances it's still yet to come up to par. We need to try and move winter, for anything. A season to be named later, a murcial spring, a defensive fall, whatever. anything would be a step forward from that useless pilon of a season. Winter has become a cancer that's affecting the weaker seasons. just look at the recent effects on both spring and (perhaps more alarmingly) on fall. More Winter! Less winter!

Canary10
11-07-2011, 08:58 PM
Roogsy, ManUtd4ever gave you a perfectly reasonable alternative explanation. Any rational person would agree is as plausible as what you said. Until you have the ability to hold constant the affect of five or six other players who also had an impact on the results after the transfer window, his explanation is as good as any others. I still think your argument that a coach bringing in good players and getting better results is proof that he's a bad coach is pretty nonsensical.

Btw, we had 19 goals after the transfer window opened. Koevs I think got 8. That means more than half were scored by the supporting cast. That's really not that bad in terms of balance.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 09:29 PM
Then you haven't been paying attention. My point is that better results after better players comes in does not validate the coach. For your theory to be true the coincidence would be enormous.

Incredibly, it would seem that the DP-less TFC is not a good indication of Winter's ability to coach non-DP players. In fact coaching DP players is a better gauge of whether Winter can coach non-DP players. Makes sense. :noidea:

I have been asking it but haven't been getting the answer so at this point I am going to assume that the belief around here really is in the incredible coincidental timing of the change in form just when the DPs arrived and that the team would have improved substantially regardless. Of course, the evidence does not support it at all but people have believed in wilder things.

Oldtimer
11-07-2011, 09:48 PM
You've had an answer Roogs, but didn't agree with it. Anyways, its time to give this a rest until the year-end thread IMO. Same people, same old arguments.

Auzzy
11-07-2011, 09:49 PM
Wow, shit, this thread is going to just about blow my mind. I must stop checking & getting annoyed...

Must...

Can't...

Must...

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 10:03 PM
You've had an answer Roogs, but didn't agree with it. Anyways, its time to give this a rest until the year-end thread IMO. Same people, same old arguments.

That's the point of a discussion board OT. Or should everyone post once, make their opinion known and then shut it down? That would be news to me.

Anyways, I didn't agree with it because it's a rationalization. How about some substance? Like I said before, I am the only one putting up numbers and interpreting them. I get the feeling that people are avoiding using the numbers and the data because it's hard to find anything that supports their theory, hence the baseless rationalization.

I know I am not a popular guy for saying these things, but I don't believe in blindly trusting the coach helps our team after the 4 years we just went through. And yeah, it is very frustrating to see the exact same thing happen all over again and so many of us failing to learn the lessons of MoJo. We basically hand this team the very rope with which to hang us.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 10:13 PM
Then you haven't been paying attention. My point is that better results after better players comes in does not validate the coach. For your theory to be true the coincidence would be enormous.

Incredibly, it would seem that the DP-less TFC is not a good indication of Winter's ability to coach non-DP players. In fact coaching DP players is a better gauge of whether Winter can coach non-DP players. Makes sense. :noidea:

I have been asking it but haven't been getting the answer so at this point I am going to assume that the belief around here really is in the incredible coincidental timing of the change in form just when the DPs arrived and that the team would have improved substantially regardless. Of course, the evidence does not support it at all but people have believed in wilder things.

Winter inherited guys like Maicon Santos, Jacob Peterson and Dan Gargan who can be described as competent footballers only in relation to the likes of Andrea Lombardo. Sometimes the simple answer is the best one. Winter got rid of a bunch of crappy players and brought in a bunch of pretty solid players.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 10:23 PM
Kind of proves my case. Preki got better results out of those "bad" players than Winter did. Not that I want Preki back. But given our record last year, if you add 2 DPs of the quality of Danny K and Frings and we'd be in the playoffs this year. And yet Winter was not able to.

As much as it pains me to say it, Preki > Winter.

And I hated Preki.

This argument goes right back to the beginning. My beef isn't with getting "better" players. Get all the "better" players you can! But MLS is a league that doesn't allow you to build a "fantasy team". My argument is that Winter can't manage the lesser quality of the traditional MLS player and NEEDS the European player to make his team competent. It essentially covers over the real problem (and fans buy into it!) but the solution can only take the team so far. DPs should take a good team and make them excellent. We have taken a shit team and made them ok and used our silver bullets in the process. When we need that one final piece to take us over the top, are we going to do it with a couple of hundred grand of allocation money? Gee whiz...

The ultimate goal of a team is to become the best in the league. That ain't happening with Winter. He doesn't know what to do with the traditional MLS player. And we're hoping he "learns", as if it's as easy as baking a pie. In the meantime, MLSE promised us the best front office in MLS and we got a rookie learning on the job and a decent but probably slightly overrated scout. Plan the parade route!

Chevy
11-07-2011, 10:44 PM
One can just as easily draw the conclusion that the club wasn't able to achieve consistent results until Winter and Mariner identified and acquired enough players in key roles to execute Winter's system effectively.

+1. Sometimes the simplest answer is the best.

Canary10
11-07-2011, 10:45 PM
Geez. I think I finally lost my momentum to keep this going.

Must get back to watching Being Erica with the girlfriend.....

123 elite
11-07-2011, 10:57 PM
Kind of proves my case. Preki got better results out of those "bad" players than Winter did. Not that I want Preki back. But given our record last year, if you add 2 DPs of the quality of Danny K and Frings and we'd be in the playoffs this year. And yet Winter was not able to.

As much as it pains me to say it, Preki > Winter.

And I hated Preki.

This argument goes right back to the beginning. My beef isn't with getting "better" players. Get all the "better" players you can! But MLS is a league that doesn't allow you to build a "fantasy team". My argument is that Winter can't manage the lesser quality of the traditional MLS player and NEEDS the European player to make his team competent. It essentially covers over the real problem (and fans buy into it!) but the solution can only take the team so far. DPs should take a good team and make them excellent. We have taken a shit team and made them ok and used our silver bullets in the process. When we need that one final piece to take us over the top, are we going to do it with a couple of hundred grand of allocation money? Gee whiz...

The ultimate goal of a team is to become the best in the league. That ain't happening with Winter. He doesn't know what to do with the traditional MLS player. And we're hoping he "learns", as if it's as easy as baking a pie. In the meantime, MLSE promised us the best front office in MLS and we got a rookie learning on the job and a decent but probably slightly overrated scout. Plan the parade route!

and thats it right there in a nutshell wrapped up for Christmas. Roll on March For Winter part 2. I can't wait.

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 11:06 PM
Anyways, I didn't agree with it because it's a rationalization. How about some substance? Like I said before, I am the only one putting up numbers and interpreting them. I get the feeling that people are avoiding using the numbers and the data because it's hard to find anything that supports their theory, hence the baseless rationalization.


You want numbers?

The following list consists of the point totals for TFC's top scorers in all competitions based on the current roster. As you can see, the offensive output was fairly well balanced.

Koevermans - 10G 1A

Plata - 8G 6A

Johnson - 6G 2A

Soolsma - 3G 5A

DeGuzman - 3G 3A

Marosevic - 3G 1A

Chevy
11-07-2011, 11:12 PM
Substitue Bible for "internet" and God for "you know who" and you'll know why every thread on this board ends up where it does. :(


http://mattcbr.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/break-the-cycle.jpg

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 11:20 PM
You want numbers?

The following list consists of the point totals for TFC's top scorers in all competitions based on the current roster. As you can see, the offensive output was fairly well balanced.

Koevermans - 10G 1A

Plata - 8G 6A

Johnson - 6G 2A

Soolsma - 3G 5A

DeGuzman - 3G 3A

Marosevic - 3G 1A

Is that for the year or for the period since the DPs arrived?

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 11:23 PM
The ultimate goal of a team is to become the best in the league. That ain't happening with Winter. He doesn't know what to do with the traditional MLS player. And we're hoping he "learns", as if it's as easy as baking a pie. In the meantime, MLSE promised us the best front office in MLS and we got a rookie learning on the job and a decent but probably slightly overrated scout. Plan the parade route!

Pure conjecture on your part. Next season will be the true litmus test for the club that Winter and Mariner rebuilt, beginning with the inaugral CCL quarter final in franchise history.

ManUtd4ever
11-07-2011, 11:38 PM
Is that for the year or for the period since the DPs arrived?

For the year, but I only included point totals with TFC, not previous MLS clubs.

As you are aware, Koevermans, Johnson, and Marosevic arrived during the summer transfer window. Plata was relatively consistent throughout the season. JDG and Soolsma scored the majority of their points in the second half of the season as they played more significant minutes.

My point is that Frings and Koevermans provided a tremendous boost to the club upon their arrival, but they definitely had a strong supporting cast as well.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 11:52 PM
Kind of skews the numbers when you have players with the team for the whole season compared against players who played limited games.

On the case, the may be a decent "supporting" cast, but good teams in MLS have more than a team that supports their DPs, they have teams that complement their DPs and are compentent with or without them. We don't have that. Take the DPs away and that supporting cast still puts us in the bottom part of the league. Not good enough.

Roogsy
11-07-2011, 11:54 PM
Pure conjecture on your part. Next season will be the true litmus test for the club that Winter and Mariner rebuilt, beginning with the inaugral CCL quarter final in franchise history.

Not conjecture, I think the first half of the season proved it to a convincing degree. Considering not a single part of the season has been presented to support the "other side" I would say THAT would be conjecture.

And that "next season" talk is exactly what I am talking about when I say they got a free pass this season. It is interesting to see fans give them the free pass but get upset when it is pointed out to them.

I refuse to accept that next season is the "true test". This silly acceptance by fans that this year needed to be thrown away still boggles my mind. The test began THIS season and so far he has failed. When you undo what little progress had been done previously only to wind up with worse results, you can't call that a success no matter how hard you try to spray perfume on that bag of dogshit.

By the way, in case anyone had bothered to look, the team that Toronto beat to get into the knockout stages of the CCL went 2-0-8 in their last 10 games of the season, 6 points out of 30. Kind of puts that win in perspective. Like I said before, our presence in the CCL has a great deal to do with an incredible amount of luck. Given that context and the way we played in the league, I am still certain that the year-end vote will still favour Winter with a favourable rating, for no other reason than hope springs eternal and much of the fanbase has decided to overlook so many things. But does he deserve it? I certainly don't think so and the stats seem to agree.

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 07:12 AM
I refuse to accept that next season is the "true test".

This is the root issue. Yet Roogsy, you're going to have to accept the fact that most of us don't see it that way, even if you and a couple of others do. The poll shows how most people feel (78% gave Winter a 4 or a 5), and although you've been making your arguments as forcefully as you can, most of us from the beginning said that we would give Winter a year or two to get the team together, we look at the trend line and see some reason for optimism.

Why, I gave MoJo 3 years (!) before calling for his head, I'm certainly going to give Winter 1-1/2 years.

Whether you think there is no hope because we're too dependent on the DPs, or that the DPs are covering up for some perceived weakness, or that Winter should be judged for the whole season, you're just going to have to wait until mid 2012, because most of us aren't convinced, and I suspect that you don't have any new arguments that are going to change our minds at this point. So maybe it's time to just give us some time, if you're right, we'll eventually catch up with you. :D

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 07:15 AM
You must mean massive improvement from the first half of the season which Winter was also in charge of.

Forgive me, as I stopped reading your post past this first sentence (I'm at work). Yes, this is what I was referring to.

Winter was given a ruinous situation, and I opely stated many times that I was going to be patient with him, as long as the team got better over the course of the season. So yeah, the results started out dreadfully under Winter.

You'd need to be delusional to state that our team played well all year.

- Scott

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 07:21 AM
This is the root issue. Yet Roogsy, you're going to have to accept the fact that most of us don't see it that way, even if you do. The poll shows how most people feel (78% gave Winter a 4 or a 5), and although you've been making your arguments as forcefully as you can, most of us from the beginning said that we would give Winter a year to get the team together, we look at the trend line and see some reason for optimism.

Why, I gave MoJo 3 years (!), I'm certainly going to give Winter 1-1/2 years.

Whether you think there is no hope because we're too dependent on the DPs, or that the DPs are covering up for some perceived weakness, or that Winter should be judged for the whole season, you're just going to have to wait until mid 2012, because most of us aren't convinced, and I don't think that you have any new arguments that are going to change our minds at this point. So maybe it's time to just give us some time, if you're right, we'll eventually catch up with you. :D

This is really what it comes down to. I accepted from the beginning that 2011 was going to be a year of putting this team back together, though that didn't mean I exempted Winter from any expectations - I wanted to see clear, substantial growth in the club. In my opinion, I got that.

Roogsy refused to adopt such a position all year, and while I see the kernel of logic at the centre of that position, I don't share it. That's fine. Sports aren't an exact science with written expectations every year. Expectations can vay wildly dependent on circumstances, and how fans interpret those circumstances.

At some point, we need to stop going around in this circle.

- Scott

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 07:38 AM
Take the DPs away and that supporting cast still puts us in the bottom part of the league. Not good enough.

This is pure conjecture, because it speculates on circumstances that never existed. It's impossible to know the effect the people we added in the second half of the season would have had on our fortunes, if Frings and Koevermans weren't here. Guys would have been given minutes that otherwise didn't get them. That massive salary cap hole left by Frings and Koevermans not being here would have been filled by other players - who knows who they would have been. Perhaps Winter assesses the team differently, and guys like Johnson and Avila never even end up here, in favour of who knows.

The chips would have fallen in a completely different way. Confidently speculating on the effect of one massive change in the facts, and assuming everything else stays more or less the same, is textbook conjecture.

- Scott

ensco
11-08-2011, 07:57 AM
Whether you think there is no hope because we're too dependent on the DPs, or that the DPs are covering up for some perceived weakness, or that Winter should be judged for the whole season, you're just going to have to wait until mid 2012, because most of us aren't convinced, and I suspect that you don't have any new arguments that are going to change our minds at this point. So maybe it's time to just give us some time, if you're right, we'll eventually catch up with you. :D

Well put. I agree with a lot of what Roogsy is saying, but I came to this conclusion a while ago.

But I think I would like to put this on the table as a key thing to monitor in the off season - the one thing I thought WinterMariner would excel at is identifying Euro non-DPs who can really move the needle. I don't give them a very high score on this so far. I was very disappointed that nothing was done on this front during the summer window.

If they sign Eckersley, then that would be the first player in that category. (For me, Soolsma is a placeholder, nothing more.) There had better be a couple more.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 08:07 AM
Well put. I agree with a lot of what Roogsy is saying, but I came to this conclusion a while ago.

But I think I would like to put this on the table as a key thing to monitor in the off season - the one thing I thought WinterMariner would excel at is identifying Euro non-DPs who can really move the needle. I don't give them a very high score on this so far. I was very disappointed that nothing was done on this front during the summer window.

If they sign Eckersley, then that would be the first player in that category. (For me, Soolsma is a placeholder, nothing more.) There had better be a couple more.

This winter is going to be pivotal for me, in my assessment of the job Winter is doing. We still have clear needs, primarily on defense, that need to be filled. And those needs can't be filled by designated players, so it will be a good test of their ability to scout talent and assess the qualities we need, after a year in Major League Soccer.

- Scott

Beach_Red
11-08-2011, 08:22 AM
At some point, we need to stop going around in this circle.

- Scott


Yes, this seems to be what everyone is saying - some have already made up their minds that we're still going around in circles and some say it's too early to tell.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 08:43 AM
Yes, this seems to be what everyone is saying - some have already made up their minds that we're still going around in circles and some say it's too early to tell.

I was referring more to the stalemate of this discussion.

- Scott

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 08:44 AM
This winter is going to be pivotal for me, in my assessment of the job Winter is doing. We still have clear needs, primarily on defense, that need to be filled. And those needs can't be filled by designated players, so it will be a good test of their ability to scout talent and assess the qualities we need, after a year in Major League Soccer.

- Scott

For me this is a big part of how I will evaluate Winter & Mariner myself.

Mariner has a reputation of having been the "brains" behind the Revs' scouting in the past, he sinks or swims based on this winter and spring's acquisitions.

Winter has a bit more time, as he should be bringing in international acquisitions based on his connections, so I give him until after next summer's transfer window. The team better be stocked with good talent and playing consistently decent football, or I'll be joining Roogsy calling for his head at that point.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 08:50 AM
The team needs to come right out of the gate looking pretty good next season. No excuses - Winter has had a full season to evaluate what he has, what he needs, and how the league plays. He also has a full off-season.

If the team comes out dead slow and incomplete over the first 10-12 games, like it has every other year, my patience will quickly run out. We don't need to immediately be world beaters, but I don't want to see any steps back from what we've already built to.

- Scott

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 09:05 AM
Well put. I agree with a lot of what Roogsy is saying, but I came to this conclusion a while ago.

But I think I would like to put this on the table as a key thing to monitor in the off season - the one thing I thought WinterMariner would excel at is identifying Euro non-DPs who can really move the needle. I don't give them a very high score on this so far. I was very disappointed that nothing was done on this front during the summer window.

If they sign Eckersley, then that would be the first player in that category. (For me, Soolsma is a placeholder, nothing more.) There had better be a couple more.

Ensco, with all due respect, does it really matter if non DPs are European?

As long as management can acquire competent players to augment the existing nucleus of the club, their professional background is irrelevant. Remember, second tier players from Europe tend to command exorbitant salaries relative to their skill set compared to similar players of a North/Central/South American background. The salary cap will likely be an issue in this regard.

Carts
11-08-2011, 09:08 AM
Ensco, with all due respect, does it really matter if non DPs are European?


It doesn't matter at all...

I don't care if we sign players from Mars and Jupiter - if they can do the job, respect our club & supporters, plus work/earn their spot & cap hit, they're aces in my books...

boban
11-08-2011, 09:21 AM
Ensco, with all due respect, does it really matter if non DPs are European?

As long as management can acquire competent players to augment the existing nucleus of the club, their professional background is irrelevant. Remember, second tier players from Europe tend to command exorbitant salaries relative to their skill set compared to similar players of a North/Central/South American background. The salary cap will likely be an issue in this regard.
I don't think that was what he was saying. Usually a coach brings in players from the connections he has. And Winter coming from Europe and playing there, has his connections there. So he should be able to get a Non-dp player or two from there.

ensco
11-08-2011, 09:22 AM
Ensco, with all due respect, does it really matter if non DPs are European?


Of course it doesn't. But that's not my point. I expect team management to start by exploiting their strengths.

We're not running a multi-year training course for Winter on how to identify MLS talent.

brad
11-08-2011, 09:31 AM
The team needs to come right out of the gate looking pretty good next season. No excuses - Winter has had a full season to evaluate what he has, what he needs, and how the league plays. He also has a full off-season.

If the team comes out dead slow and incomplete over the first 10-12 games, like it has every other year, my patience will quickly run out. We don't need to immediately be world beaters, but I don't want to see any steps back from what we've already built to.


This is my approach as well. Winter directly told me he expects this to be the case, so that is something I will hold him to.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 09:34 AM
I don't think that was what he was saying. Usually a coach brings in players from the connections he has. And Winter coming from Europe and playing there, has his connections there. So he should be able to get a Non-dp player or two from there.


Of course it doesn't. But that's not my point. I expect team management to start by exploiting their strengths.

We're not running a multi-year training course for Winter on how to identify MLS talent.

I understand the implications of the European connection with Winter and Mariner (and Klinsmann at one point), and that is what attracted the likes of Frings, Koevermans, Eckersley, Soolsma, and Stevanovic, etc.

However, the issue is not just management's ability to identify European talent, it is whether those second tier Euro players would be willing to ply their trade in MLS for 150K-200K a year when they can earn substantially more money in second division football leagues all over Europe.

ensco
11-08-2011, 09:50 AM
the issue is not just management's ability to identify European talent, it is whether those second tier Euro players would be willing to ply their trade in MLS for 150K-200K a year when they can earn substantially more money in second division football leagues all over Europe.

We agree. The past season is Exhibit A - Yourass and Martina were busts, Soolsma was OK but he's likely to be upgraded soon. It's a big part of why the general record of European coaches in MLS has been so dismal. But are WinterMariner realistically going to win at the game of attracting better Central/South Americans?

I'm trying to avoid circling back to the issue of whether Winter was/is a good choice!....so

There are some examples of decent non-DP Euros in MLS, it can be done - Tainio, Rodgers and Rost in NY, Collin in KC (the Cauldron love him), Le Toux in Philly, Dawkins in SJ (OK he's only on loan)

Dichio, O'Brien and Brennan were also examples...

brad
11-08-2011, 09:55 AM
The point that Winter can not get the best out of "standard MLS players" is an interesting one. I looked a 3 cases to see - Johnson, Santos and Gordon (league stats only)

Santos - looking at his scoring rate over 90 minutes.
Last year with Preki - 0.39 (13 games, 927 minutes, 4 goals, 2 assists)
This year with Winter - 0.43 (19 game, 1248 minutes, 6 goals, 1 assist)
This year with Dallas - 0.25 (11 games, 726 minutes, 2 goals, 1 assist)
Winner - Winter

Ryan Johnson - This year
TFC - 0.27 (12 games 993 minutes 3 goals, 2 assists)
San Jose 0.00(14 games, 1087 minutes 0 goals 2 assists)
Winner - Winter

Alan Gordon (the player used as the example of a the atypical journeyman MLSer in the Beckham Experiment)
TFC - 0.57 (8 games, 632 minutes, 4 goals, 1 assist)
SJ 0.84 (2 games, 107 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
Looking at LA stats Last year 0.19 (12 games, 467 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
2009 w/ Galaxy - 0.23 (33 games, 1175 minutes, 3 goals, 3 assists)

Hard to say clearly where he was better from these numbers as there are widely different sample sized (number of games and minutes) which affects the data. It does appear that he played his best football under Winter though.

Running out of time to pull more numbers, but to be fair - Peterson is a counterpoint. He performed better under Preki and since going to SJ than he did with Winter.

Also, no stats to back this - but Harden was much improved by the end of the season, and Iro appeared to be as well.

Edit: Avila also did a bit better at Dallas at the start of the year.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 09:59 AM
We agree. The past season is Exhibit A - Yourass and Martina were busts, Soolsma was OK but he's likely to be upgraded soon. It's a big part of why the general record of European coaches in MLS has been so dismal. But are WinterMariner realistically going to win at the game of attracting better Central/South Americans?

I'm trying to avoid circling back to the issue of whether Winter was/is a good choice!....so

There are some examples of decent non-DP Euros in MLS, it can be done - Tainio, Rodgers and Rost in NY, Collin in KC (the Cauldron love him), Le Toux in Philly, Dawkins in SJ (OK he's only on loan)

Dichio, O'Brien and Brennan were also examples...

Absolutely. It can be done but it's easier said than done. Hopefully, there will be a couple of Euro bargains available during the winter transfer window (no pun intended :D).

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 10:11 AM
The point that Winter can not get the best out of "standard MLS players" is an interesting one. I looked a 3 cases to see - Johnson, Santos and Gordon (league stats only)

Santos - looking at his scoring rate over 90 minutes.
Last year with Preki - 0.39 (13 games, 927 minutes, 4 goals, 2 assists)
This year with Winter - 0.43 (19 game, 1248 minutes, 6 goals, 1 assist)
This year with Dallas - 0.25 (11 games, 726 minutes, 2 goals, 1 assist)
Winner - Winter

Ryan Johnson - This year
TFC - 0.27 (12 games 993 minutes 3 goals, 2 assists)
San Jose 0.00(14 games, 1087 minutes 0 goals 2 assists)
Winner - Winter

Alan Gordon (the player used as the example of a the atypical journeyman MLSer in the Beckham Experiment)
TFC - 0.57 (8 games, 632 minutes, 4 goals, 1 assist)
SJ 0.84 (2 games, 107 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
Looking at LA stats Last year 0.19 (12 games, 467 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
2009 w/ Galaxy - 0.23 (33 games, 1175 minutes, 3 goals, 3 assists)

Hard to say clearly where he was better from these numbers as there are widely different sample sized (number of games and minutes) which affects the data. It does appear that he played his best football under Winter though.

Running out of time to pull more numbers, but to be fair - Peterson is a counterpoint. He performed better under Preki and since going to SJ than he did with Winter.

Also, no stats to back this - but Harden was much improved by the end of the season, and Iro appeared to be as well.

Edit: Avila also did a bit better at Dallas at the start of the year.

Just to add to that both Ashtone Morgan and Matt Stinson played well enough on the MLS level under Winter to earn callups to the CMNT

Yohan
11-08-2011, 10:19 AM
But I think I would like to put this on the table as a key thing to monitor in the off season - the one thing I thought WinterMariner would excel at is identifying Euro non-DPs who can really move the needle. I don't give them a very high score on this so far. I was very disappointed that nothing was done on this front during the summer window.

If they sign Eckersley, then that would be the first player in that category. (For me, Soolsma is a placeholder, nothing more.) There had better be a couple more.
I think Discovery signing limit (6 per season?) made it impossible for TFC to sign non MLS players in summer. Now I don't know whether DPs are exempt from this rule, or what sort of convoluted MLS rules are in place for this.


We agree. The past season is Exhibit A - Yourass and Martina were busts, Soolsma was OK but he's likely to be upgraded soon. It's a big part of why the general record of European coaches in MLS has been so dismal. But are WinterMariner realistically going to win at the game of attracting better Central/South Americans?

I'm trying to avoid circling back to the issue of whether Winter was/is a good choice!....so

There are some examples of decent non-DP Euros in MLS, it can be done - Tainio, Rodgers and Rost in NY, Collin in KC (the Cauldron love him), Le Toux in Philly, Dawkins in SJ (OK he's only on loan)

Dichio, O'Brien and Brennan were also examples...

Rost is a DP... and he has been only middling in terms of his performance.

Collin was an Iro for a while before he adjusted to MLS. Red cards before he adjusted to MLS

Le Toux took a long time before having a breakout year...

NY has done very well in terms of signing good Euro players at decent price. Jan Gunnar Solli is turning out to be one of best RB in the league, while Tainio has been a rock at DM. Lindpere is clutch and Rodgers, if he can be injury free, has been poaching goals.

Where will TFC find the next Mauro Rosales? (IMO signing of the year)

Canary10
11-08-2011, 10:22 AM
I'm still baffled by the argument that bringing in good players and getting good results with them is proof that the coach isn't good. That's what Roogsy's argument comes down to at the end of the day. Bringing in good players is, in fact, part of a coach's job.

rocker
11-08-2011, 10:28 AM
I'm still baffled by the argument that bringing in good players and getting good results with them is proof that the coach isn't good. That's what Roogsy's argument comes down to at the end of the day. Bringing in good players is, in fact, part of a coach's job.

yeah... and there's no way of separating the two... so it's a moot point anyways. You cannot, in any way, separate the coaching from the players.

I'm still awaiting proof from somebody that a good coach simply walks into a bad team and makes it good, without changing the players (that is, getting better players or more suitable players). Cuz I can't find any recent examples in Major League Soccer of a good coach walking in, preserving the roster of a bad team, and making it good based on coaching ability alone. Bruce Arena didn't do it in LA (his record was worse after Ruud left... and then in the off season he replaced over half the players).

ensco
11-08-2011, 10:29 AM
I think Discovery signing limit (6 per season?) made it impossible for TFC to sign non MLS players in summer. Now I don't know whether DPs are exempt from this rule, or what sort of convoluted MLS rules are in place for this.

Rost is a DP... and he has been only middling in terms of his performance.

Collin was an Iro for a while before he adjusted to MLS. Red cards before he adjusted to MLS

Le Toux took a long time before having a breakout year...

NY has done very well in terms of signing good Euro players at decent price. Jan Gunnar Solli is turning out to be one of best RB in the league, while Tainio has been a rock at DM. Lindpere is clutch and Rodgers, if he can be injury free, has been poaching goals.

Where will TFC find the next Mauro Rosales? (IMO signing of the year)

I missed that Rost was a DP.

This detail shows just how tough it is to succeed at the exact thing that WinterMariner probably do best.

Hitting the Discovery signing limit before the summer is one of the things that was...(no circling ensco, no circling).... not good about last year.

Yohan
11-08-2011, 10:31 AM
I missed that Rost was a DP.

This detail shows just how tough it is to succeed at the exact thing that WinterMariner probably do best.

Hitting the Discovery signing limit before the summer is one of the things that was...(no circling ensco, no circling).... not good about last year.
what choice did Winter have? he needed bodies

Canary10
11-08-2011, 10:34 AM
We haven't really talked about Winter's commitment to building from the academy with Toronto-born players either. In fact, his approach as he discussed it at the town hall is to not use DPs except where they can provide leadership and international experience to the youunger Canadian guys. His wants to have young Canadian players who are brought up in the system at an early age as the core of the team. I feel in much better hands with Winter being the guy to implement that than some American coach who's only real taste of high level football pressure is a qualifying match against Guatamala and a playoff game against the Tampa Bay Mutiny.

Morgan became a standout this year in my opinion. He is dangerous up and down the left flank, and has put some incredible crosses in that fed a bunch of Koevermans' goals. He has speed to burn. In Roogsy' world his emergence was probably a coincidence of a factors includding bringing in the DPs. Or maybe he emerged due to the diligence and tutelage of Preki and MoJo. I give Winter a lot of credit for it. And of course Morgan himself.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:35 AM
The point that Winter can not get the best out of "standard MLS players" is an interesting one. I looked a 3 cases to see - Johnson, Santos and Gordon (league stats only)

Santos - looking at his scoring rate over 90 minutes.
Last year with Preki - 0.39 (13 games, 927 minutes, 4 goals, 2 assists)
This year with Winter - 0.43 (19 game, 1248 minutes, 6 goals, 1 assist)
This year with Dallas - 0.25 (11 games, 726 minutes, 2 goals, 1 assist)
Winner - Winter

Ryan Johnson - This year
TFC - 0.27 (12 games 993 minutes 3 goals, 2 assists)
San Jose 0.00(14 games, 1087 minutes 0 goals 2 assists)
Winner - Winter

Alan Gordon (the player used as the example of a the atypical journeyman MLSer in the Beckham Experiment)
TFC - 0.57 (8 games, 632 minutes, 4 goals, 1 assist)
SJ 0.84 (2 games, 107 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
Looking at LA stats Last year 0.19 (12 games, 467 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
2009 w/ Galaxy - 0.23 (33 games, 1175 minutes, 3 goals, 3 assists)

Hard to say clearly where he was better from these numbers as there are widely different sample sized (number of games and minutes) which affects the data. It does appear that he played his best football under Winter though.

Running out of time to pull more numbers, but to be fair - Peterson is a counterpoint. He performed better under Preki and since going to SJ than he did with Winter.

Also, no stats to back this - but Harden was much improved by the end of the season, and Iro appeared to be as well.

Edit: Avila also did a bit better at Dallas at the start of the year.

This is an erroneous way of looking at the stats because you fail to identify the degree to which style impacts the particular player. For example, TFC are now playing a much more aggressive offensive style when compared to Preki's "11 man behind centre line" mentality. With these differing styles, you can't say "Santos scored at a better rate under Winter than Preki" because what you are leaving out is the context, and the context is that while that is true, the team as a whole also gave up a lot more goals, and when I mean a lot, I mean an incredibly signficant number. Our goal diff last year was -8. This year it's -23. We scored THREE more goals than we did last year but gave up 18 more goals. Are you telling me Santos had the same assignment this year that he did last year? Given this information, I can't see how you could make that case.

If you really want to take this false premise to the extreme, you could then argue that Winter can't coach keepers and defenders because everyones stats from the D all the way back to the keeper must have been horrendously worse. Do we need to run the numbers or do you stipulate to that effect?

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:38 AM
We haven't really talked about Winter's commitment to building from the academy with Toronto-born players either. In fact, his approach as he discussed it at the town hall is to not use DPs except where they can provide leadership and international experience to the youunger Canadian guys. His wants to have young Canadian players who are brought up in the system at an early age as the core of the team. I feel in much better hands with Winter being the guy to implement that than some American coach who's only real tast of high level international football pressure is a qualifying match against Guatamala and a playoff game against the Tampa Bay Mutiny.

Morgan became a standout this year in my opinion. He is dangerous up and down the left flank, and has put some incredible crosses in that fed a bunch of Koevermans' goals. He has speed to burn. In Roogsy' world his emergence was probably a coincidence of a factors includding bringing in the DPs. Or maybe he emerged due to the diligence and tutelage of Preki and MoJo. I give Winter a lot of credit for it. And of course Morgan himself.

I guess this was Morgan's first year in the TFC system. I pointed to this a few months ago but it appears it has already started: Winter is now even getting credit for players that weren't developed during his tenure. Unreal.

I foresee at some point in the future, he's going to get credit for the academy idea itself. I am sure of it.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:39 AM
what choice did Winter have? he needed bodies

(Circling back again) Backe did in in the same amount of time that Winter had but wasn't able to get done.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 10:41 AM
"This is an erroneous way of looking at the stats because you fail to identify the degree to which style impacts the particular player. For example, TFC are now playing a much more aggressive offensive style when compared to Preki's "11 man behind centre line" mentality. With these differing styles, you can't say "Santos scored at a better rate under Winter than Preki" because what you are leaving out is the context, and the context is that while that is true, the team as a whole also gave up a lot more goals, and when I mean a lot, I mean an incredibly signficant number. Our goal diff last year was -8. This year it's -23. We scored THREE more goals than we did last year but gave up 18 more goals. Are you telling me Santos had the same assignment this year that he did last year? Given this information, I can't see how you could make that case."

So might style also be an explanation why the team stumbled in the transition from Preki's defense first system to Winter's offensive system? Or no?

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 10:42 AM
The point that Winter can not get the best out of "standard MLS players" is an interesting one. I looked a 3 cases to see - Johnson, Santos and Gordon (league stats only)

Santos - looking at his scoring rate over 90 minutes.
Last year with Preki - 0.39 (13 games, 927 minutes, 4 goals, 2 assists)
This year with Winter - 0.43 (19 game, 1248 minutes, 6 goals, 1 assist)
This year with Dallas - 0.25 (11 games, 726 minutes, 2 goals, 1 assist)
Winner - Winter

Ryan Johnson - This year
TFC - 0.27 (12 games 993 minutes 3 goals, 2 assists)
San Jose 0.00(14 games, 1087 minutes 0 goals 2 assists)
Winner - Winter

Alan Gordon (the player used as the example of a the atypical journeyman MLSer in the Beckham Experiment)
TFC - 0.57 (8 games, 632 minutes, 4 goals, 1 assist)
SJ 0.84 (2 games, 107 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
Looking at LA stats Last year 0.19 (12 games, 467 minutes, 1 goal, 0 assists)
2009 w/ Galaxy - 0.23 (33 games, 1175 minutes, 3 goals, 3 assists)

Hard to say clearly where he was better from these numbers as there are widely different sample sized (number of games and minutes) which affects the data. It does appear that he played his best football under Winter though.

Running out of time to pull more numbers, but to be fair - Peterson is a counterpoint. He performed better under Preki and since going to SJ than he did with Winter.

Also, no stats to back this - but Harden was much improved by the end of the season, and Iro appeared to be as well.

Edit: Avila also did a bit better at Dallas at the start of the year.

Excellent points Brad. I would also like to add that our Academy prospects developed very nicely under the tutelage of Winter and de Clerk. Morgan, Stinson, and Henry made tremendous strides this past season. Morgan and Stinson in particular were not even on the radar last season and now they have both earned recognition from the CMNT.

EDIT- I see this was already mentioned by Canary10.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 10:42 AM
I guess this was Morgan's first year in the TFC system. I pointed to this a few months ago but it appears it has already started: Winter is now even getting credit for players that weren't developed during his tenure. Unreal.

I foresee at some point in the future, he's going to get credit for the academy idea itself. I am sure of it.

Yeah you're right. Preki and Johston clearly made Morgan the payer he is today, and smoothed his transition into the first team.

ensco
11-08-2011, 10:43 AM
what choice did Winter have? he needed bodies

Ok this is the true essence of the Winter debate. I think he totally screwed the pooch on this. He could have won 2 games out of 22 without eliminating our ability to sign non-DP players in the summer. It forced us to use the DP slots in a particular, risky way, on aging veterans. The fact that the gamble has worked, so far, definitely counts towards my view of him. But if these guys get one knock in training, or one lost half step...

Many others don't see it this way. No need to rehash.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:48 AM
Wouldn't that make a case for keeping an offensive player like DeRo for the very purpose of compensating for whatever difficulties the team might have in the transition? Instead they kept the defensive players, provided no stabilizing reinforcements to shore up a shaky D, concentrated on trying to score even though they did worse than under Preki's defensive scheme and came out worse for wear. Great strategy. This is the guy I am supposed to have faith in?

By the way, why wasn't that difficulty experienced when Preki took over and installed a new system himself? After a difficult first few games getting their legs under the system, they went on the best tear TFC has had over a multi-month period ever.

This year it took months and had it not been for the arrival of the DPs, it would have taken all year if not more. Their arrival plugged the leaky dam about to give way. Had they not arrived, we would have sunk into the -30 goal diff range (if not more), scored LESS than under Preki's team (a ridiculous thought given this is supposed to be an OFFENSIVE system vs a defensive one) and probably earned us the distinction of the wooden spoon.

If someone is going to argue against this projection (given that the trendline is very clear) I'd like to see something to back up why, if not for the DPs, this team would have reversed their trajectory.

Again, what exactly am I supposed to have faith in? The coach or the players?

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:48 AM
Yeah you're right. Preki and Johston clearly made Morgan the payer he is today, and smoothed his transition into the first team.

Preki and Johnson had nothing to do with the Academy. That is exactly the point. Are you saying this is MOrgan's first year with TFC in any capacity and that before this year he was some gangly kid on the basketball court and Winter found him and said "Hey! Come play footy!"?

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 10:50 AM
So Winter didn't take two rookies with zero MLS experience, didn't train them this entire season, and didn't let them play in actual games for a significant amount of time, and they didn't get called up to the national team?

Morgan and Stinson must be in the early stages of becoming DPs, its the only explanation that suggests it was purely coincedence they did well this season under the talentless Winter.

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 10:51 AM
(Circling back again) Backe did in in the same amount of time that Winter had but wasn't able to get done.

So one thing that people seem to be leaving out is the fact that Winter and CO. have decided to install style of play that isn't really taught in North America. A style that a lot of players previously on TFC couldn't seem to grasp. We've seen numerous players leave T.O. this year saying things like "no one understands what the system is" etc.

With that being said - Could TFC staff have had a harder time than Bache did in NY with bringing in players who could play within the system they are trying to promote? Or does that not factor in when talking about the two teams and the time it took to turn a team around?

Also - There was mention earlier to Preki and the players that he was able to squeeze results out of. Not sure why the comparison was brought up between Preki's hack style of soccer and the players he used to get his system to work and Winter/Co. sleeker style of soccer and the types of players he needs to make his system work.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:51 AM
Excellent points Brad. I would also like to add that our Academy prospects developed very nicely under the tutelage of Winter and de Clerk. Morgan, Stinson, and Henry made tremendous strides this past season. Morgan and Stinson in particular were not even on the radar last season and now they have both earned recognition from the CMNT.

EDIT- I see this was already mentioned by Canary10.


If they are such excellent points, why doesn't someone run a similar analysis on the defensive players? I'd like to see that.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 10:51 AM
I guess this was Morgan's first year in the TFC system. I pointed to this a few months ago but it appears it has already started: Winter is now even getting credit for players that weren't developed during his tenure. Unreal.

I foresee at some point in the future, he's going to get credit for the academy idea itself. I am sure of it.

Wow. You categorically refuse to give Winter and the new management team any credit whatsoever for any of the positive developments this past season. It's difficult to engage in a productive discussion when you seem to be so blatantly biased in your judgement.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 10:52 AM
I guess this was Morgan's first year in the TFC system. I pointed to this a few months ago but it appears it has already started: Winter is now even getting credit for players that weren't developed during his tenure. Unreal.

I think Couchy was referring to the fact that Winter has somewhat emphasized trying to integrate players from our academy system, instead of solely outside bodies, and he's giving credit for how well Morgan (in particular) has emerged as a first team player.

Winter certainly deserves some (not all) credit for his emergence. He wasn't immediately thrown into our lineup as a finished product.

EDIT: I see couchy beat me to it.

- Scott

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 10:52 AM
If they are such excellent points, why doesn't someone run a similar analysis on the defensive players? I'd like to see that.

Canary10 already did. Furthermore, our goals against was far more respectable once the roster was overhauled, despite the absence of our top two central defenders.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:53 AM
Canary10 already did. Furthermore, our goals against was far more respectable once the roster was overhauled, despite the absence of our top two central defenders.

Where is that analysis?

As for the goals against...it was indeed more "respectable". Who came in at the transfer window that impact that particular area of play? Viator?

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 10:57 AM
Wow. You categorically refuse to give Winter and the new management team any credit whatsoever for any of the positive developments this past season. It's difficult to engage in a productive discussion when you seem to be so blatantly biased in your judgement.

Hard to give credit when it is not deserved. That Ashtone Morgan was able to learn Winter's system is something Winter can earn credit for. But to give Winter credit for Morgan as a footballer is ludicrous and insisting that is the case is what actually shows blatant bias. I could say the same for the other side who fail to hold management to task for a season that is undeniably the worst since our inaugural year. This concept of "looking at the positives" is akin to losing your house in a tornado but being thankful you found your favourite underwear.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:01 AM
Also - There was mention earlier to Preki and the players that he was able to squeeze results out of. Not sure why the comparison was brought up between Preki's hack style of soccer and the players he used to get his system to work and Winter/Co. sleeker style of soccer and the types of players he needs to make his system work.

This is the part that astounds me. It's an argument of convenience.

After mid-July when funny enough our form changed for the slightly better, the argument is that it wasn't the DPs (that's just coincidental timing), it's the players finally learning the system. But before mid-July it's not enough time for the players to get familiar with the system. Convenient argumentation. The goalposts have been changed yet again.

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 11:03 AM
Hard to give credit when it is not deserved. That Ashtone Morgan was able to learn Winter's system is something Winter can earn credit for. But to give Winter credit for Morgan as a footballer is ludicrous and insisting that is the case is what actually shows blatant bias. I could say the same for the other side who fail to hold management to task for a season that is undeniably the worst since our inaugural year. This concept of "looking at the positives" is akin to losing your house in a tornado but being thankful you found your favourite underwear.


I have to agree with this. Stuart Neely and his Academy team should be given the credit for his development.

Winter gave him the opportunities to play on the first team and he excelled.

One thing I will give Winter credit for is the way he uses his young players. Unlike other regimes, the young guys, including Plata, started playing minimal time at the start of the season. As they got confident, they got more playing time.

Bringing in Koevermans to help the forwards and Frings to help the mids and D to compliment DeGuzman was another good Winter/Co move to help the younger players develop on the first team.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:06 AM
I have to agree with this. Stuart Neely and his Academy team should be given the credit for his development.

Winter gave him the opportunities to play on the first team and he excelled.

One thing I will give Winter credit for is the way he uses his young players. Unlike other regimes, the young guys, including Plata, started playing minimal time at the start of the season. As they got confident, they got more playing time.

Bringing in Koevermans to help the forwards and Frings to help the mids and D to compliment DeGuzman was another good Winter/Co move to help the younger players develop on the first team.


This is something I can agree with.

The interesting thing about all this is that the only reason Academy players were signed is because they were short bodies. Most people don't know that. Winter didn't want these players and in fact complained about them and their quality but was forced to use them. That he did get productive minutes out of them is the part that Winter can receive credit. But that isn't what is happening in this thread. The credit being lauded goes beyond what Winter actually did for the kid.

And I quote:


Morgan became a standout this year in my opinion. He is dangerous up and down the left flank, and has put some incredible crosses in that fed a bunch of Koevermans' goals. He has speed to burn. In Roogsy' world his emergence was probably a coincidence of a factors includding bringing in the DPs. Or maybe he emerged due to the diligence and tutelage of Preki and MoJo. I give Winter a lot of credit for it. And of course Morgan himself.

Really? We're crediting the quality of his crosses and his speed to Winter? If he had said "he has learned to be effective in the system" instead I can see some validity to that, but to quote his overall football attributes to Winter is shocking to me. And you guys accuse me of blatant bias?

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 11:07 AM
I could say the same for the other side who fail to hold management to task for a season that is undeniably the worst since our inaugural year.

Undeniably? Not really. Worst overall MLS-specific record since our first year? Sure, though ultimately no playoffs is no playoffs. In terms of tangible accomplishment, this has technically been our best season.

So it's a matter of perspective. Certainly not undeniable. I suspect most people in this thread, save for you, consider this season's accomplishments somewhere in the space between "best" and "worst".


This concept of "looking at the positives" is akin to losing your house in a tornado but being thankful you found your favourite underwear.

If that's how you see it, that's fine, but this view of things essentially makes further discussion a pointless endeavour. Looking at one poor overall season for a sports team, and seeing tangible positives for future seasons, isn't akin to losing your house but finding your favourite underwear. That's a pretty blatant reductio ad absurdum (the latin is back!).

- Scott

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 11:09 AM
Hard to give credit when it is not deserved. That Ashtone Morgan was able to learn Winter's system is something Winter can earn credit for. But to give Winter credit for Morgan as a footballer is ludicrous and insisting that is the case is what actually shows blatant bias. I could say the same for the other side who fail to hold management to task for a season that is undeniably the worst since our inaugural year. This concept of "looking at the positives" is akin to losing your house in a tornado but being thankful you found your favourite underwear.

It's been stated many times, and although you refuse to acknowledge it, the current rebuilt roster compiled a very resepctable record in the latter stages of the season, culminating in our inaugral berth in the CCL quarter final.

If we are to gauge the prospects of being competitive next season, would it not be more accurate to base our assessment on the roster that will start the season next year (with further reinforcments) as opposed to the group of (predominantly departed) players that struggled in the first half of this past season?

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 11:10 AM
This is the part that astounds me. It's an argument of convenience.

After mid-July when funny enough our form changed for the slightly better, the argument is that it wasn't the DPs (that's just coincidental timing), it's the players finally learning the system. But before mid-July it's not enough time for the players to get familiar with the system. Convenient argumentation. The goalposts have been changed yet again.

That mid July change was more than just the DP's IMO.

You get rid of clumsy players like Peterson and Gargan, Injury prone Alan Gordan, inconsistent Santos and replace them with Dunfield, Johnson, Marosevic and Avila - you can honestly say - from a purely soccer related point of view - that we didn't upgrade in overall quality?

I'm not saying the DP's didn't make a difference, but to say that they were the only reason we got better is also a bit biased IMO.

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 11:11 AM
This is the part that astounds me. It's an argument of convenience.

After mid-July when funny enough our form changed for the slightly better, the argument is that it wasn't the DPs (that's just coincidental timing), it's the players finally learning the system. But before mid-July it's not enough time for the players to get familiar with the system. Convenient argumentation. The goalposts have been changed yet again.

That's not the argument people are making.

There are numerous posts in the past couple of pages in regards to the drastic number of different players in the roster before the DP's arrived that were either benched or traded by the time the 2-2 tie in Portland occurred.

We are making the argument that once some players with more talent were brought in, the system started to take shape almost instantly despite the fact that most of the players had never played together before. We are also saying that the players who started playing well didn't even need a month to learn the system because they have more talent. The players before mid-July were hacks.

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 11:14 AM
I'm still seeing lots of talk about overall record and nothing really about the actual football being played.

Overall, we are a better team on the field. Our passing and receiving is crisper, our passes are smarter, our movement off the ball actually resembles something of a professional team. Our ball possession actually has purpose and doesn't and 2/3 of the way up the field.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 11:16 AM
Where is that analysis?

As for the goals against...it was indeed more "respectable". Who came in at the transfer window that impact that particular area of play? Viator?

I don't have the exact numbers at the moment, but our goal differential was dramatically improved following the roster overhaul during the summer transfer window. It was the result of the acquisitions of Frings and Dunfield, as well as the emergence of the likes of JDG, Eckersley, Morgan, Stinson, and Harden.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:18 AM
That mid July change was more than just the DP's IMO.

You get rid of clumsy players like Peterson and Gargan, Injury prone Alan Gordan, inconsistent Santos and replace them with Dunfield, Johnson, Marosevic and Avila - you can honestly say - from a purely soccer related point of view - that we didn't upgrade in overall quality?

I'm not saying the DP's didn't make a difference, but to say that they were the only reason we got better is also a bit biased IMO.

To be honest Ravi, I think what is happening is the usual "fan" reaction to outgoing players and incoming players. To us, the incoming players are "the best", they're "our guys". The outgoing players are suffering through "we-never-really-liked-them" syndrome. Kind of like when you break up with a girl. You forget you once loved her, now she's just some chick you wanted to bang for a short time.

Those very "outgoing" players enjoyed these "our guys" benefits while they were here. I distinctly remember standing in 112 and yelling about how awful Gargan was and having people trying to convince me that his work ethic and "positioning" etc. etc. was great. Gee whiz. I remember people saying Santos was going to be 10x better a captain than DeRo. My favourite blogger JimmyBaldX would have convinced everyone here that Peterson was going to be a multi-goal scorer and assist machine with crosses coming in on a feather and the speed of a prancing gazelle! Of course, when they're gone, they were never any good and the same will happen to the current set of players. If Johnson or Avila leave next season? Bah! We never needed them. DeRo and his golden boot and possible MVP season? Bah! He was actually worse for our team than good for it. And so on, and so on.

If your question is whether these guys are an upgrade I would have to say no, not really. These are all middling, average and in some cases underperforming MLS soccer players. Barely any of them are true starting XI player in this league. And once again, us fans are overrating them.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 11:20 AM
Undeniably? Not really. Worst overall MLS-specific record since our first year? Sure, though ultimately no playoffs is no playoffs. In terms of tangible accomplishment, this has technically been our best season.

So it's a matter of perspective. Certainly not undeniable. I suspect most people in this thread, save for you, consider this season's accomplishments somewhere in the space between "best" and "worst".



If that's how you see it, that's fine, but this view of things essentially makes further discussion a pointless endeavour. Looking at one poor overall season for a sports team, and seeing tangible positives for future seasons, isn't akin to losing your house but finding your favourite underwear. That's a pretty blatant reductio ad absurdum (the latin is back!).

- Scott

Precisely. Now if you'll excuse me...

:banghead:

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:21 AM
I don't have the exact numbers at the moment, but our goal differential was dramatically improved following the roster overhaul during the summer transfer window. It was the result of the acquistions of Frings and Dunfield, as well as the emergence of the likes of JDG, Eckersley, Morgan, Stinson, and Harden.

I like that word...emergence. They all got it together at the same time that Frings arrived but Frings had nothing to do with it. That same group helped us reach -19 before mid-July but add Frings, Dunfield and possibly Viator and we were -4 the rest of the way.

Sorry ManU, I don't buy it. And I can't believe the incredible coincidence you are asking me to believe.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 11:25 AM
I like that word...emergence. They all got it together at the same time that Frings arrived but Frings had nothing to do with it. That same group helped us reach -19 before mid-July but add Frings, Dunfield and possibly Viator and we were -4 the rest of the way.

Sorry ManU, I don't buy it. And I can't believe the incredible coincidence you are asking me to believe.

Did I say that Frings had nothing to do with it?

Of course Frings had something to do with it! He was a key acquisition that helped solidify our overall defensive acumen.

Does that negate the emergence of the defensive players around him, or did Frings do it all by himself?

trane
11-08-2011, 11:27 AM
I get the happiness over the CCL win but 3 points out of 9? How does that earn a 4 or 5 rating?

I get the feeling that one win will influence the whole year's rating overall.

It certainly did for me. I thought that the team did what it had to do in the CL, and for me that is what counted. But I agree that it is a number greatly inflated, because of us going through to the next round. It is just that for me that is bigger then making the MLS playoffs.

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 11:29 AM
I like that word...emergence. They all got it together at the same time that Frings arrived but Frings had nothing to do with it. That same group helped us reach -19 before mid-July but add Frings, Dunfield and possibly Viator and we were -4 the rest of the way.

Sorry ManU, I don't buy it. And I can't believe the incredible coincidence you are asking me to believe.

It wasn't so much their emergence as it was the benching of Yourassowsky, Martina, Zavarise, trading Gargan, Peterson, Attakora, Gordon and replacing Viator and Borman with the likes of Henry and Morgan.

That is exactly the time we started playing more fluidly, as new and in most cases more talented players took their spots.

trane
11-08-2011, 11:29 AM
I like that word...emergence. They all got it together at the same time that Frings arrived but Frings had nothing to do with it. That same group helped us reach -19 before mid-July but add Frings, Dunfield and possibly Viator and we were -4 the rest of the way.

Sorry ManU, I don't buy it. And I can't believe the incredible coincidence you are asking me to believe.


Danny K and to a lesser extent Jonshon also made a difference.

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 11:29 AM
To be honest Ravi, I think what is happening is the usual "fan" reaction to outgoing players and incoming players. To us, the incoming players are "the best", they're "our guys". The outgoing players are suffering through "we never really liked them" syndrome. Kind of like when you break up with a girl. You forget you once loved her, now she's just some chick you wanted to bang for a short time.

Those very "outgoing" players enjoyed these "our guys" benefits while they were here. I distinctly remember standing in 112 and yelling about how awful Gargan was and having people trying to convince me that his work ethic and "positioning" etc. etc. was great. Gee whiz. I remember people saying Santos was going to be 10x better a captain than DeRo. My favourite blogger JimmyBaldX would have convinced everyone here that Peterson was going to be a multi-goal scorer and assist machine with crosses coming in on a feather and the speed of a prancing gazelle! Of course, when they're gone, they were never any good and the same will happen to the current set of players. If Johnson or Avila leave next season? Bah! We never needed them. DeRo and his golden boot and possible MVP season? Bah! He was actually worse for our team than good for it. And so on, and so on.

If your question is whether these guys are an upgrade I would have to say no, not really. These are all middling, average and in some cases underperforming MLS soccer players. Barely any of them are true starting XI player in this league. And once again, us fans are overrating them.

I gotta disagree with you not sure how you could say that. Step back and stop thinking about what the fan boys were saying about last years players. Honestly look at each player and compare.

Gordon < Johnson
Gordan being injured for 75% of the season is enough for me to give Johnson the Nod. Some would argue that they play different positions and have different roles so the comparison is apples to Oranges, but for now we are comparing them as forwards and their overall contribution as such.

Peterson < Avila
Peterson was shit, always has been always will be. His first touch sucked and he never moved the ball with purpose.

Santos = Marosevic
Hard to choose between the two. They both played just behind the strikers although Santos was out of position. So comparing an out of position Santos is probably not fair.

Gargan < Dunfield
Gargan was another shitty player who couldn't pass or receive a ball. He's soccer's version of Tie Domi.

trane
11-08-2011, 11:37 AM
^ I understand what you are saying as far for it not being fair, but Santos was played were he was played, and Marosevic in that position is much better then Santos. Therefore for the team that was an improvment.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:41 AM
I gotta disagree with you not sure how you could say that. Step back and stop thinking about what the fan boys were saying about last years players. Honestly look at each player and compare.

Gordon < Johnson
Gordan being injured for 75% of the season is enough for me to give Johnson the Nod. Some would argue that they play different positions and have different roles so the comparison is apples to Oranges, but for now we are comparing them as forwards and their overall contribution as such.

Peterson < Avila
Peterson was shit, always has been always will be. His first touch sucked and he never moved the ball with purpose.

Santos = Marosevic
Hard to choose between the two. They both played just behind the strikers although Santos was out of position. So comparing an out of position Santos is probably not fair.

Gargan < Dunfield
Gargan was another shitty player who couldn't pass or receive a ball. He's soccer's version of Tie Domi.

Basically this is an argument of who is shittier...which is kind of my point.

Gordon being injury prone is the deciding factor there. But above all else, we forget WINTER TRADED FOR HIM. We could have gotten another asset but he was brought in by Winter, not Preki. To me he falls under the Winter era, not Preki, which by default excuses Gordon from the Preki conversation. As for Johnson being a better option, I absolutely agree. Young, energetic and fitting in the system makes Johnson a good asset to have. Is he exceptional? No. And that's where the fanboys for Johnson appear. He is good and has earned a spot. That's about it.

And we run into another problem with this comparison. None of these players play exactly the same position except for maybe Santos/Marosevic which coincidently enough, you rated pretty much even. Except they bring different things. Marosevic brings better positioning and youth. Santos has a killer boot. Marosevic brings energy. Santos has a better scoring ratio. The same with Peterson/Avila. Both have pros and cons. Avila is technically better but Peterson is much faster. Both have below-average scoring stats. Hardly impact players, especially for AMs. And even worse, what was with Winter's experiment with Peterson at Right Back? I mean come on!

Is Dunfield better than Gargan? Sure. But not really by much and both are inconsequential to a team's impact. Dunfield disappears for entire games. Gargan gives his all every game but has the touch of a rapist.

It's all rearranging the deck chairs while overlooking the important impactful aspects of the team. None of these changes (or lack of changes) makes TFC a significantly better team. All of the new players are easily replaced. They are hardly integral to our future. Should I give credit to Winter for them? I will if you want me to because frankly, these players as individuals are relatively insignificant to the success of the club.

And that "fanboy" attitude you speak of, it's happening again with the current roster of players.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:42 AM
Danny K and to a lesser extent Jonshon also made a difference.


Ah but does Johnson have a good 2nd half to the year without Danny K? That is the real question.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 11:46 AM
Did I say that Frings had nothing to do with it?

Of course Frings had something to do with it! He was a key acquisition that helped solidify our overall defensive acumen.

Does that negate the emergence of the defensive players around him, or did Frings do it all by himself?

We didn't have any defensive acumen. That's the point. And when he arrived, of course it improved, because of him. And yes, players played better, because of him. Which fundamentally proves my point you have been denying this whole time. Was it the coaching or the arrival of an impact player that made the difference in the improvement?

Because as wonderful as Frings is...his abilities only go so far and the team can only take the ride on his back to a certain degree.

Take the DC United game as an example. DC down a man the entire game burned our backline for 3 goals. DeRo burned Frings on several occasions and Frings had no help from anyone else. If teams come in an neutralize our key components, the other ones fail to step up. Just like when Danny K went down for a couple of games with injury, our scoring dried up. And when he came back in, it came to life again. All coincidences? Did the coaching change during these periods? At this point, I can only put these questions out there, you guys will have to make up your own minds. But the evidence is there.

You guys talk about "balance" and "good coaching". Well, if these things existed, we wouldn't have these swings in results dependant on the performance of the DPs. Period.

TFCRegina
11-08-2011, 11:52 AM
Two stars but I think he'll be better next year, with a year of experience under his belt.

If he isn't, he should be fired at the END of next season.

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 12:03 PM
Because as wonderful as Frings is...his abilities only go so far and the team can only take the ride on his back to a certain degree.

Take the DC United game as an example. DC down a man the entire game burned our backline for 3 goals. DeRo burned Frings on several occasions and Frings had no help from anyone else. If teams come in an neutralize our key components, the other ones fail to step up. Just like when Danny K went down for a couple of games with injury, our scoring dried up. And when he came back in, it came to life again. All coincidences? Did the coaching change during these periods? At this point, I can only put these questions out there, you guys will have to make up your own minds. But the evidence is there.

You guys talk about "balance" and "good coaching". Well, if these things existed, we wouldn't have these swings in results dependant on the performance of the DPs. Period.

The DC game is a flawed example because it was the first game both rookies - Henry and Morgan - started for TFC this season and IRO was still cold from coming in as Columbus bench player so he made numerous errors.

The backline solidified as the rookies become more comfortable playing in the MLS and Iro settled down.

Edit: They let in 3 goals that game, but only 4 goals total over the next 4 MLS matches, keeping RSL scoreless the game after DC

Canary10
11-08-2011, 12:05 PM
If we want to start using one-off examples, what about the Philadelphia game? Koevermans didn't start, Frings came off early, and we drew 1-1 with a team fighting for their playoff lives in their home pitch (with a B team).

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 12:17 PM
If we want to start using one-off examples, what about the Philadelphia game? Koevermans didn't start, Frings came off early, and we drew 1-1 with a team fighting for their playoff lives in their home pitch (with a B team).

Are we remembering the same game? Philly was all over us. Philly scored first and we tied against the run of play. If I remember Milos made a couple of blinding saves. Philly felt hard-done not to get full points. Yeah we were glad to escape with a point but I am not sure what your point is with this particular example. My point never was that we are going to win every game that Danny K and Frings play in or that we will lose every game without them. But our overall record and stats do point to their impact and the lack of competence without them.

brad
11-08-2011, 12:18 PM
This is an erroneous way of looking at the stats because you fail to identify the degree to which style impacts the particular player.

You mean the style of play imposed by the coach to get the most of of the players?

Or perhaps the players that coach brought in to fit his style of play?


For example, TFC are now playing a much more aggressive offensive style when compared to Preki's "11 man behind centre line" mentality. With these differing styles, you can't say "Santos scored at a better rate under Winter than Preki" because what you are leaving out is the context, and the context is that while that is true, the team as a whole also gave up a lot more goals, and when I mean a lot, I mean an incredibly signficant number. LA, Dallas and SJ do not park 11 behind the ball like Preki did but you conveniently ignore those examples.




Our goal diff last year was -8. This year it's -23. We scored THREE more goals than we did last year but gave up 18 more goals. Are you telling me Santos had the same assignment this year that he did last year? Given this information, I can't see how you could make that case.Of course Santos didn't have the same assignment. Preki played him as a forward and Winter put him as an AM most of the time.

But by this train of logic, you can never compare performances of players between teams or coaches unless the tactics and formations are like for like.

A strange line of reasoning from someone who likes to pull stats about how DeRo performed across various teams and coaches.


If you really want to take this false premise to the extreme, you could then argue that Winter can't coach keepers and defenders because everyones stats from the D all the way back to the keeper must have been horrendously worse. Do we need to run the numbers or do you stipulate to that effect?Well, GK coaches tend to coach keepers, not the main coach so throw that that line of reasoning out.

And it's pretty clear to anyone that has watched football for any time that Harden in particular was a greatly improved player by the end of the year and to a lesser extent Iro was as well. Want to prove or disprove that statically, start digging through the detailed Opta stats cause wins, losses and draws isn't going to tell you that.

brad
11-08-2011, 12:23 PM
If they are such excellent points, why doesn't someone run a similar analysis on the defensive players? I'd like to see that.

The numbers are more time consuming to get at. The numbers I pulled are summarized on the MLS stats page and you can do what I did in a few minutes. For defensive players you need to go game by game through the detailed Opta stats and summarize them on your own.

I'd be interested in seeing such data, but have zero interest in spending the time doing that amount of work to prove or disprove a point on the internet.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 12:32 PM
Are we remembering the same game? Philly was all over us. Philly scored first and we tied against the run of play. If I remember Milos made a couple of blinding saves. Philly felt hard-done not to get full points. Yeah we were glad to escape with a point but I am not sure what your point is with this particular example. My point never was that we are going to win every game that Danny K and Frings play in or that we will lose every game without them. But our overall record and stats do point to their impact and the lack of competence without them.

My point was that we can get results without them. And actually, I saw Winter answering his tactical critics. He rested key starters including Koevermans, played a good counterattacking game, got the goal and got a result. They looked comfortable for the game and not in any real danger of dropping the point.

Pookie
11-08-2011, 12:39 PM
Apparently, this offseason is the perfect time to bring in a new coach to turn things around immediately. Nice to see the campaign is off the ground.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 12:42 PM
You mean the style of play imposed by the coach to get the most of of the players?

Or perhaps the players that coach brought in to fit his style of play?

Actually, it seems logical that a coach with a preferred style of play that is offensive would help the stats of his offensive players to the detriment of the stats of his defensive players, and vice versa. Seems logical to me. What matters is overall record no? Do we need a reminder of what Preki's record was compared to Winters?


LA, Dallas and SJ do not park 11 behind the ball like Preki did but you conveniently ignore those examples.

Not really. I was trying to keep the comparison within the scope that I had been making of Preki vs Winter. Does Johnson have better stats with us? Yes. Does that make Winter a better coach in MLS than Yallop? Considering Yallop's 2 Cups I would have to disagree although he has struggled in San Jose. Dallas is an interesting case. They're obviously struggling overall having earned 6 points out of a possible 30 in their last 10 games of the season I would say the problems were structural not Santos himself. Had Ferreira not gone down this year, who knows what would have happened? For all we know, we wouldn't be arguing this point much because likely most people would be upset with Winter for both poor league AND CCL results.


Of course Santos didn't have the same assignment. Preki played him as a forward and Winter put him as an AM most of the time.

But by this train of logic, you can never compare performances of players between teams or coaches unless the tactics and formations are like for like.

A strange line of reasoning from someone who likes to pull stats about how DeRo performed across various teams and coaches.

That's why this is a discussion about the coaches and the effectiveness of their system. The fact that DeRo accomplished what he has despite these obstacles is in fact evidence of his abilities (something that is regularly denied him on these boards). He is in fact an exceptional case, not the norm. Hence why I support him as an exceptional player that TFC chose to get rid of and what a stupid idea that was. But that does not disprove the fact that styles and systems impact player stats and results. Frei is no worse a player than he was last year but I bet his stats took a beating this year.

As for comparing players, yes it does make it more difficult when they are playing different roles, I am not denying that. Frei on a Preki team is much more lauded than Frei on a Winter team. But excellence is still evident. That is also why it was highly frustrating discussing DeRo with people on this board when he was with NY. In playing a different role, he was getting more assists than goals, and yet people were taking that to be evidence of something that obviously was disproven when he returned to a different role at DC United. Systems matter. The fact that ours benefits scorers should surprise nobody. I think we do it at the sacrifice of our defense, nullifying the benefits of the offensive-minded schemes. Even more damning is the fact that we barely scored more goals this year than we did last year. I cannot emphasize how bad that looks on Winter.


Well, GK coaches tend to coach keepers, not the main coach so throw that that line of reasoning out.

GK coaches work on form and practice. Ultimately, it is the head coach's overall performance that impacts a keeper's stats more than his GK coach ever could.


And it's pretty clear to anyone that has watched football for any time that Harden in particular was a greatly improved player and to a lesser extent Iro was as well. Want to prove or disprove that statically, start digging through the detailed Opta stats cause wins, losses and draws isn't going to tell you that.

Greatly improved to the tune of a historically bad goal differential? We're back to "what I see" vs what the numbers tell us. If Winter made his back line "better" why the poor defensive numbers?

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 12:44 PM
My point was that we can get results without them. And actually, I saw Winter answering his tactical critics. He rested key starters including Koevermans, played a good counterattacking game, got the goal and got a result. They looked comfortable for the game and not in any real danger of dropping the point.

I disagree completely. He was completely in danger of dropping the point. That was Philly's game to be won and they simply didn't bury the 2nd goal despite many opportunities. TFC didn't look comfortable because they were on their backheels most of the game. We could have easily lost that game. Philly hardly looked worried about losing the game, only about taking more than a single point.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 01:07 PM
Was it the coaching or the arrival of an impact player that made the difference in the improvement?


It was because of both factors in my opinion. Winter had stated several times that he was desperately looking for an on field general to help implement the system that he had been preaching all season, and Frings was an ideal candidate in that regard.



Because as wonderful as Frings is...his abilities only go so far and the team can only take the ride on his back to a certain degree.


Precisely, which is why a strong supporting cast and cohesive system are integral to the success of the club.



You guys talk about "balance" and "good coaching". Well, if these things existed, we wouldn't have these swings in results dependant on the performance of the DPs. Period.


The improved team performance in the second half of the season was the result of the culmination of several astute player acquisitions and incumbent players grasping the fundamentals of Winter's system. Period.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 01:09 PM
And I think we are lacking both those elements. Which goes back to my original point. The DPs are not just key to the stability of TFC, they are the foundation of it and that should not be the case. So many times on this board I have heard "you don't build a team around a player" with reference to DeRo and yet here we have done it around the DPs instead of building a team where the DPs come in and take it to the next level. That in essence is my problem with the way this team has been built and been managed. So how can I award Winter a satisfactory rating?

If we made that mistake around DeRo, why is it not a mistake here?

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 01:22 PM
Apparently, this offseason is the perfect time to bring in a new coach to turn things around immediately. Nice to see the campaign is off the ground.

:lol:


Winter's rating has been going up each poll over here. I'm not too worried about Winter at this point.

I think the points for the "no" side are:

1. Winter is not a very good coach.
2. Any success that the team has had was due to DPs, which apparently Winter deserves no credit for.
3. Any promising new players from the academy were only brought in for desperation's sake <<====== NEW POINT!
4. You must at all costs count the full season record. Any hope from the second half would diminish the possibility that Winter is not a very good coach.


I don't believe point 3, whatever locker room "source" told Roogsy was BSing. Ajax is all about youth development, Winter's pedigree is as a youth coach. This is laughable, at best.

So we have the same old arguments as we have for months, 78% polled are positive about Winter. the only new argument doesn't hold water, but I'm glad to see a new point at last after 4 months of the same old.

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 01:23 PM
If we made that mistake around DeRo, why is it not a mistake here?

I was just waiting for DeRo to come up.... :drinking:

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 01:24 PM
Greatly improved to the tune of a historically bad goal differential? We're back to "what I see" vs what the numbers tell us. If Winter made his back line "better" why the poor defensive numbers?

Roogsy, let me break down the blowout losses (games with 3 or more goals against) that attributed to the historically bad goal differential, so you can see the quality of players that we had holding the fort the first half of the season vs. the latter half of the season:

March 19 - Van 4 - TFC 2

Dan Gargan, Nana Attakora, Ty Harden, Adrian Cann,

April 16 - DC 3 - TFC 0

Danleigh Borman, Ty Harden, Adrian Cann (Nana Attakora 12'), Jacob Peterson

April 30 - Seattle 3 - TFC 0

Dicoy Williams, Dan Gargan, Adrian Cann, Jacob Peterson

May 28 - Philly 6 - TFC 2

Richard Eckersley, Dicoy Williams, Ty Harden, Dan Gargan (Danleigh Borman 46')

June 25 - RSL 3 - TFC 1

Richard Eckersley, Doneil Henry, Ty Harden, Danleigh Borman

July 06 - NYRB 5 - TFC 0

Richard Eckersley, Dan Gargan, Ty Harden, Danleigh Borman (Ashtone Morgan 46)


--------------------------
Goodbye Borman, Gargan, Peterson
--------------------------


July 23 - KC 4 - TFC 2

Eddy Viator, Andy Iro, Richard Eckersley, Mikael Yourassowsky (Ashtone Morgan 58') Random one time only backline

August 06 - DC 3 - TFC 3

Richard Eckersley (Matt Stinson 51), Doneil Henry (Peri Marosevic 46), Andy Iro, Ashtone Morgan First game both rookies play. And technically it's not a loss but it still contributes to high GA

September 24 - Chivas 3 - TFC 0

Richard Eckersley, Ty Harden, Andy Iro, Ashtone Morgan




And there it is. This is why many of us believe we only need two central defenders to replace Harden and Iro to be competitive next season.

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 01:25 PM
Actually, it seems logical that a coach with a preferred style of play tha If Winter made his back line "better" why the poor defensive numbers?

Can I direct you to the news story on some player injuries? Nothing to do with Winter.

brad
11-08-2011, 01:28 PM
Actually, it seems logical that a coach with a preferred style of play that is offensive would help the stats of his offensive players to the detriment of the stats of his defensive players, and vice versa. Seems logical to me. What matters is overall record no? Do we need a reminder of what Preki's record was compared to Winters?

Depends on what you are looking at, or if you are using a common debating tactic to try and shift the point of focus to bolster your point while belittling the others.

Overall team record is important if that is what you are looking at, but if you are judging individual performance then it is often not the case. Considering I am talking about individual players performances and the point that Winter can not get the most of out of MLS players, I don't see overall record as relevant. I am point to cases where Winter did appear to get more than others out of given players.

Overall record has far more to do with a given players players performance. It has to do with team performance as a whole, roster management, injuries, ect.


Not really. I was trying to keep the comparison within the scope that I had been making of Preki vs Winter. Does Johnson have better stats with us? Yes. Does that make Winter a better coach in MLS than Yallop? Considering Yallop's 2 Cups I would have to disagree although he has struggled in San Jose.Never said he was a better coach. Said he got better results out of a player than Yallop did. Big difference and a big leap to imply one from the other.


Dallas is an interesting case. They're obviously struggling overall having earned 6 points out of a possible 30 in their last 10 games of the season I would say the problems were structural not Santos himself. Had Ferreira not gone down this year, who knows what would have happened? For all we know, we wouldn't be arguing this point much because likely most people would be upset with Winter for both poor league AND CCL results.What if Ferreira had not gone down? What if Cann and Williams had not gone down? If you are going rationalize one side of the equations with the what if's, you have to do it on the other as well. You can't have it one way or the other.

I would also say Gordon at LA is the more interesting case. With a very good coach, and service from the likes of Beckham and Donavon he put up worse numbers than at TFC.



That's why this is a discussion about the coaches and the effectiveness of their system.Actually this is a discussion about whether or not Winter is able to get he most out of average MLS players. His system plays a part, but that is not the focal point.


The fact that DeRo accomplished what he has despite these obstacles is in fact evidence of his abilities (something that is regularly denied him on these boards). He is in fact an exceptional case, not the norm. Hence why I support him as an exceptional player that TFC chose to get rid of and what a stupid idea that was. But that does not disprove the fact that styles and systems impact player stats and results. Frei is no worse a player than he was last year but I bet his stats took a beating this year.Not debating on DeRo at all. Again, you can't have it both ways. We either evaluate players based on different coaches and systems, or we don't. We don't make exceptions when it fits our agenda.




Greatly improved to the tune of a historically bad goal differential? We're back to "what I see" vs what the numbers tell us. If Winter made his back line "better" why the poor defensive numbers?Sorry, explain to me how a goal differential across an entire season has any relevance to a players improved performance at the end of the season? I never claimed he was good all season, I claimed he got noticeably better near the end.

trane
11-08-2011, 01:30 PM
Ah but does Johnson have a good 2nd half to the year without Danny K? That is the real question.

Nah, Danny and Frings were the principal difference. I just think Johnson was a better foward overall then we had before, and could play as a CF, AM, and WF, realitvely well.

trane
11-08-2011, 01:38 PM
I gave credit for Harden improving. But at the start of the season he was awfull in every aspect of the game. He improved but only to the point were I would consider him as a MLS backup, at best.

Sure he improved under Winter, but he hardly became the American Nesta. Both him an Iro are great liabilities. and while I will give Winter credit for making some tactical changes to address our problems at CB, playing with two DMs, Frings more withdrawn almost as a sweeper. We were shit on defense and still prone to unbelievable lapses as a team as individual players.

Couchy81
11-08-2011, 01:41 PM
To jump in on the Johnson debate, I don't think Winter made him better. He was a talented player when he got here and was able to fit into the system right away.

Winter: "We are very pleased to add an experienced forward in Ryan Johnson. We expect him to make an immediate impact at our club."

Last season in SJ he was Wondolowski's setup man and had a very high number of assists during Wondo's golden boot year. The year before that Johnson had many goals when Wondo wasn't scoring.

What the Johnson pickup shows is Winter/Mariner's acumen in picking up talent. In addition to Plata, they got Johnson for some bums. Nice trade imo.

Beach_Red
11-08-2011, 01:42 PM
:lol:


Winter's rating has been going up each poll over here. I'm not too worried about Winter at this point.



Exactly.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 01:42 PM
All of your opinions are wrong, and mine are right.

- Scott

trane
11-08-2011, 01:48 PM
^ Dude, I have been reading your opinions for a long time, and they are not right, they are left.:smilielol5:I crack myself up.

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 01:48 PM
To jump in on the Johnson debate, I don't think Winter made him better. He was a talented player when he got here and was able to fit into the system right away. Last season in SJ he was Wondolowski's setup man and had a very high number of assists during Wondo's golden boot year. The year before that Johnson had many goals when Wondo wasn't scoring.

What the Johnson pickup shows is Winter/Mariner's acumen in picking up talent. In addition to Plata, they got Johnson for some bums. Nice trade imo.

Agreed with this.
Great pickup. It's unfortunate we lost Attikora in that deal.

trane
11-08-2011, 01:50 PM
^ Attakora is the only dude, that we lost, that I realy liked. But he was not getting playing time anyway.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 01:51 PM
^ Dude, I have been reading your opinions for a long time, and they are not right, they are left.:smilielol5:I crack myself up.

Hiyooooo!!! You should take this act on the road, haha.

- Scott

trane
11-08-2011, 01:51 PM
^ I quit my day job already.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 01:58 PM
Roogsy is right to a certain extent. When you look purely at the statistics, the improvement since the transfer window is pretty solid compared to the first 21 games of the season. But comparing to what is needed to make the playoffs, it's still not there. Looking only at MLS results in the last 13 games (since the transfer window), we were on pace for a 39 point season over 34 games. Still not playoff bound. So it's worth the caution he is raising.

brad
11-08-2011, 02:02 PM
I gave credit for Harden improving. But at the start of the season he was awfull in every aspect of the game. He improved but only to the point were I would consider him as a MLS backup, at best.

Sure he improved under Winter, but he hardly became the American Nesta. Both him an Iro are great liabilities. and while I will give Winter credit for making some tactical changes to address our problems at CB, playing with two DMs, Frings more withdrawn almost as a sweeper. We were shit on defense and still prone to unbelievable lapses as a team as individual players.

That is still an improvement though. No one would expect Winter or any other coach for that matter to take average to bad players and make them into the best in the league with any regularity. But going from god awful to serviceable backup is still a sign of improvement.

If Harden has indeed improved to the point where he is a serviceable MLS backup - that is a big benefit to the team.

ManUtd4ever
11-08-2011, 02:17 PM
Roogsy is right to a certain extent. When you look purely at the statistics, the improvement since the transfer window is pretty solid compared to the first 21 games of the season. But comparing to what is needed to make the playoffs, it's still not there. Looking only at MLS results in the last 13 games (since the transfer window), we were on pace for a 39 point season over 34 games. Still not playoff bound. So it's worth the caution he is raising.

Fair enough. I think everyone acknowledges that the team is still a work in progress, and most importantly, Winter and Mariner have acknowledged it. In fairness though, TFC lost the first 2 games after the transfer window, and all of the new players obviously required some time to get acclimated with their new environment. Anyway, no excuses next season.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 02:25 PM
In my view there was also a qualitative difference in the team since the transfer window that doesn't get reflected in stats. They had much more fluidity, good interplay in the midfield, attacked with purpose when they needed to and generally looked much more dangerous. Can't "prove" this of course in the sense that Roogsy is looking for, but there is a pretty widespread view that this is the case, including from some outside commentators.

denime
11-08-2011, 03:12 PM
Substitue Bible for "internet" and God for "you know who" and you'll know why every thread on this board ends up where it does. :(


http://mattcbr.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/break-the-cycle.jpg

POST OF THE YEAR 2011! :smilielol5:

Gazza_55
11-08-2011, 03:21 PM
And I think we are lacking both those elements. Which goes back to my original point. The DPs are not just key to the stability of TFC, they are the foundation of it and that should not be the case. So many times on this board I have heard "you don't build a team around a player" with reference to DeRo and yet here we have done it around the DPs instead of building a team where the DPs come in and take it to the next level. That in essence is my problem with the way this team has been built and been managed. So how can I award Winter a satisfactory rating?

If we made that mistake around DeRo, why is it not a mistake here?

I don't understand how people who actually watched TFC, in person or on TV, last October and through the entire 2011 can make these statements.

Winter could win the CCL and MLS Cup next year but as long as DeRo isn't brought back it will be "how can I award Winter a satisfactory rating? it is Mariner who acquired the talent or it's our DP's are better than anyone else's or Winter didn't invent the system we play so the credit goes to Ajax".

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 03:22 PM
Roogsy is right to a certain extent. When you look purely at the statistics, the improvement since the transfer window is pretty solid compared to the first 21 games of the season. But comparing to what is needed to make the playoffs, it's still not there. Looking only at MLS results in the last 13 games (since the transfer window), we were on pace for a 39 point season over 34 games. Still not playoff bound. So it's worth the caution he is raising.

For sure. If the defense isn't fixed, the team will not make the playoffs.

rocker
11-08-2011, 03:27 PM
For sure. If the defense isn't fixed, the team will not make the playoffs.

and Mariner said that's definitely a focus for next year. In his TSN interview, he even didn't seem to expect Cann and Williams could be counted on, given their injuries.

The management knows exactly what they need next year. If they get it in the off season, we're definitely a playoff competitor.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 04:08 PM
In my view there was also a qualitative difference in the team since the transfer window that doesn't get reflected in stats. They had much more fluidity, good interplay in the midfield, attacked with purpose when they needed to and generally looked much more dangerous. Can't "prove" this of course in the sense that Roogsy is looking for, but there is a pretty widespread view that this is the case, including from some outside commentators.

Actually I do agree with this. Winter has done a good job of having his players learn this system. He obviously knows it well. But it's not the system that I find lacking. 4-3-3 is enjoyable to watch. Much moreso than Preki's hack-a-shaq style. That is not my problem with this management. Never has been.

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 04:15 PM
Nobody should ever be hacking Shaq.

- Scott

jabbronies
11-08-2011, 04:19 PM
Actually I do agree with this. Winter has done a good job of having his players learn this system. He obviously knows it well. But it's not the system that I find lacking. 4-3-3 is enjoyable to watch. Much moreso than Preki's hack-a-shaq style. That is not my problem with this management. Never has been.


So just to add another element to this discussion.

I question how much teaching Winter does compared to DeKlerk.
I get the feeling that DeKlerk does more of the hardcore training and teaching, where Winter may be more high level involvement - Sets the training focus; player management and expectations etc.

Canary10
11-08-2011, 04:25 PM
So just to add another element to this discussion.

I question how much teaching Winter does compared to DeKlerk.
I get the feeling that DeKlerk does more of the hardcore training and teaching, where Winter may be more high level involvement - Sets the training focus; player management and expectations etc.

That's a good question. It would be great to have media in Toronto that cared and understood enough of the game to get answers on questions like that. I'd also really like to know what training with Winter actually looks like. What were the passing drills that Jacob Peterson, with his incredible ability, felt were a waste of time. My impression is that he's heavily involved. I think it looks like DeKlerk does more because he's a more outgoing person. But I really don't know.

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 04:41 PM
So just to add another element to this discussion.

I question how much teaching Winter does compared to DeKlerk.
I get the feeling that DeKlerk does more of the hardcore training and teaching, where Winter may be more high level involvement - Sets the training focus; player management and expectations etc.


This is my understanding as well from what I hear.

Ossington Mental Youth
11-08-2011, 04:50 PM
Thats been suggested by quite a few people for a while now.
Why i never got up in arms when it was briefly suggested that DeKlerk was potentially becoming first team coach and Winter staying up stairs

Mr. Bigby
11-08-2011, 05:36 PM
Why do I get the feeling that Winter could walk on water, and SOME people would complain that he's getting the floor all wet...

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 05:45 PM
Thats been suggested by quite a few people for a while now.
Why i never got up in arms when it was briefly suggested that DeKlerk was potentially becoming first team coach and Winter staying up stairs

I think it's a lot more collaborative approach. The divisions between duties are there, but they work very closely together.

Ossington Mental Youth
11-08-2011, 05:48 PM
I think it's a lot more collaborative approach. The divisions between duties are there, but they work very closely together.

yep, i can definitely see that too

Shakes McQueen
11-08-2011, 05:54 PM
Listen guys, we are getting away from the more important revelation here - someone is hacking Shaq. This will not stand.

Shaq is a good guy, and I won't stand idly by while someone hacks him.

- Scott

Roogsy
11-08-2011, 07:46 PM
Why do I get the feeling that Winter could walk on water, and SOME people would complain that he's getting the floor all wet...

Why do you guys act like he DOES walk on water?

Ossington Mental Youth
11-08-2011, 08:08 PM
and some of us dont, but cant find fault with what hes done quite yet or the small bits we have found arent worth throwing hte baby out with the bathwater. at this point its still pretty grey. i personally am positive about what ive seen the second half of the season but am not under any illusions

Oldtimer
11-08-2011, 10:24 PM
Why do you guys act like he DOES walk on water?

This post borders on trolling.

Shakes McQueen
11-09-2011, 08:15 AM
Why do you guys act like he DOES walk on water?

This post is unintentionally illuminating, haha.

- Scott

Zeke_Jones
11-18-2011, 04:58 PM
Why didn't vvinter just pay the man?

There is a big shit eating grin on De Rosario's face knowing 2 teams didnt think he was worth enough and he proved them wrong in the same year.

Fucking lame ass supporters of vvinter get your heads out of your asses.

If we dont have a winning record after the 10th game next season you know vvinter will be fired or quit and then what?

Praise the next jackass in line.

Pookie
11-18-2011, 05:09 PM
^ while heads are coming out of asses, see if you can look up a copy of the league's constitution in order to understand that the decision to pay him or not doesn't rest with the team. Single entity jazz and all that.

menefreghista
11-18-2011, 07:23 PM
Why didn't vvinter just pay the man?

There is a big shit eating grin on De Rosario's face knowing 2 teams didnt think he was worth enough and he proved them wrong in the same year.

Fucking lame ass supporters of vvinter get your heads out of your asses.

If we dont have a winning record after the 10th game next season you know vvinter will be fired or quit and then what?

Praise the next jackass in line.

I think there was pressure from above in the organization not to pay him.

J .
11-19-2011, 06:16 AM
I laugh at people voting 4 star.

Kinnear took a worst team and are in the Finals this year, thats 4-5 star.

Wow people, setting the bar low.

J .
11-19-2011, 06:20 AM
Why do I get the feeling that Winter could walk on water, and SOME people would complain that he's getting the floor all wet...


Because he should be busy taking our team to the playoffs.

Brooker
11-19-2011, 06:45 AM
I laugh at people voting 4 star.

Kinnear took a worst team and are in the Finals this year, thats 4-5 star.

Wow people, setting the bar low.

I don't blame people at all. It's been absolutely miserable and we're finally starting to play a more attractive brand and actually score goals... we finally thumped Columbus in their own stadium no less and we're in the quarter finals of the CL.

Is giving Winter a 4 over the top? Yup... but like I said, I can't blame anybody for being a bit generous.

Shakes McQueen
11-19-2011, 07:09 AM
I laugh at people voting 4 star.

Kinnear took a worst team and are in the Finals this year, thats 4-5 star.

Wow people, setting the bar low.

This poll is regarding his performance in October, not the entire season. Assuming some people weight certain wins as more important than others depending on circumstance, then it isn't completely preposterous to give him a four star rating for October.

Instead of sarcastically laughing at people, and accusing them of setting the bar low, how about laying out your own argument for why you think otherwise, and seeing if it wins anyone over.

This kind of approach does nothing but cause people to double down on their "side" of the discussion, potentially resulting in more DeRo-style bullshit.

- Scott

J .
11-19-2011, 08:01 AM
This poll is regarding his performance in October, not the entire season. Assuming some people weight certain wins as more important than others depending on circumstance, then it isn't completely preposterous to give him a four star rating for October.

Instead of sarcastically laughing at people, and accusing them of setting the bar low, how about laying out your own argument for why you think otherwise, and seeing if it wins anyone over.

This kind of approach does nothing but cause people to double down on their "side" of the discussion, potentially resulting in more DeRo-style bullshit.

- Scott


Well Ive been pretty consistent all year, but Ill reiterate what Ive said.

My premise is that the only successful season is one whereby you make the playoffs a five star year is making the finals.

Every year people pretend the team is getting better when the fact is when you watch other MLS teams, they are better than us. Even in our very few wins, there were very few dominating efforts. Maybe 2-3 games all year where TFC truly was without question the better team, vs Columbus and vs Dallas and that was in the final two months.

In October, one win and three daw does not make for a truly successful month despite the win in Dallas.

MLS is a league were parity is the sought after norm, for most of last season our team was midtable and collapsed due to poor management, egos and money. It is a fallacy of thought and an acceptence of failure to view MLS otherwise.

You can look at teams like DCU, Houston etc as sides that understand the league, made the right changes and improved. Houston so much they are in the finals. Houston was horrible last year, they got the coach we should have had and now are were we wont be next season.

Why not look compare vs the NYs, LAs, the Houstons, Seattle sides that instead of rebuilding and saying at the end "next year". Very little has improved, the defending is worse than ever and we are not scoring these goals playing this attacking football that people who vote any sort of passing grade preach about. They are not backed by the stats, wins or the play on the field. For all this talk of improving quality, of playing the right way of all this and that the truth is TFC was a horrible side this year.

Before and after the transfer window simply put the team was not good enough on too many nights and those very few where the team looked good, the reality is that all bad teams have nights where they put out a good show.

This is a side that gave more more and scored less than any TFC team previous and for most of the season arguably if it wasnt for the ineptitude of Vancouver, was the worst team in the league, hapless at home and toothless on the road.

The only reason why I voted for a two was that we got several breaks and won a singular big match vs Dallas which to be honest was won by the feet of Plata who put in the best match of his life and if I was Dallas I would have been very disappointed with the finishing and lifeless effort the Hoops put in.

Either way, I hope the 4's are right but my expectations sadly were met all season.

ensco
11-19-2011, 08:32 AM
Out of the cauldron of all this Winter discussion, I see a pretty clear alignment of opinion now. I'd be willing to bet something like 80-90% of people would agree with the following statement about WinterMariner:

"While it's immensely frustrating to have our team finish at the bottom of MLS again, we played a lot better in the second half. WinterMariner signed two DPs that were immediately effective, which is something not many managements in MLS have done in the DP market historically. We had an unexpected gift in the CCL. The Dero thing, well, while it may be a shame, who knows what would have happened if he had stayed, and you can't really blame WinterMariner for what happened.

But it was a lost season, and many moves didn't pan out. So we expect the team to make good signings in the offseason, be competitive, start strongly, and be in serious playoff contention, next year. If they don't, our support for current management will prove short-lived".

Pookie
11-19-2011, 09:28 AM
^ pretty fair assessment though I wouldn't dismiss the CCL achievement as simply a gift.

As the season progressed, it became clear that success in the CCL would be the goal. And they achieved that, culminating in an impressive road win but also was marked with other memorable moments. Such as being able to adapt and win on aggregate with a "pre-transfer window" squad over a Vancouver team that beat us soundly 4-2 to start the year.

IMO this tournament performance, which was largely conducted mid-week with plenty of travel, deserves at least equal billing with the infamous 2011 MLS record.

denime
11-19-2011, 09:50 AM
Out of the cauldron of all this Winter discussion, I see a pretty clear alignment of opinion now. I'd be willing to bet something like 80-90% of people would agree with the following statement about WinterMariner:

"While it's immensely frustrating to have our team finish at the bottom of MLS again, we played a lot better in the second half. WinterMariner signed two DPs that were immediately effective, which is something not many managements in MLS have done in the DP market historically. We had an unexpected gift in the CCL. The Dero thing, well, while it may be a shame, who knows what would have happened if he had stayed, and you can't really blame WinterMariner for what happened.

But it was a lost season, and many moves didn't pan out. So we expect the team to make good signings in the offseason, be competitive, start strongly, and be in serious playoff contention, next year. If they don't, our support for current management will prove short-lived".

I think by now 80-90% of people would agree with your statement,myself included.