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Waggy
09-25-2011, 04:59 PM
Just ran some numbers for a reply in the Cold Hard Facts thread but by the time I posted the thread was closed, so for all the people who don't see much improvement between this club before the Summer Transfers and after


Our results in all competitions since Koevs and Frings debut

Lost to Chivas 3-0
Beat Tauro 1-0
Beat Colorado 2-1
Lost to Pumas 4-0
Beat Columbus 4-2
Drew San Jose 1-1
Lost to Dallas 1-0
Lost to Chi 2-0
Beat Tauro 2-1
Beat Salt Lake 1-0
Drew DC 3-3
Beat Real Esteli 2-1
Drew Portland 2-2
Beat Real Esteli 2-1
Lost to KC 4-2
Lost to Dallas 1-0

Thats a record of 7-6-3 since the DPs came in.
24 points divided by 16 games is 1.5 ppg. (before my math gets assaulted thats 7 wins x 3 points, plus 3 draws at 1 point each, divided by 16 games played).

If you take out the first 4 games the team played with Koevs/Frings (call it training camp for them, they said so themselves), and we're 6-4-2 in the last 12 games, which works out to 1.6666 points per game. I'd say that's a marked improvement from where we were (has TFC ever had a better than 1.1 or 1.2 ppg?).

To other question on everyones mind, goal differencial (our season goal differencial is TERRIBLE): since the DPs, 22 goals for to 27 against. Or -5 goals. If we again remove the first 4 "training camp" games, the number changes to 16 goals for and 19 against, or -3. And that's not bad considering the shitty effort yest and in Mexico (-7 just in those 2 games).

To further look at the goals for and against let's break it down some more

Our season Goals for and against: in MLS 32-55 (-23!), in Canadian Champ/CL 14-11 (+3)

More broken down

Before July 15:
MLS goal diff in 21 games played: 17-36 (-19)
Canadian Champ goal diff in 4 games played :7-3 (against Van/Edmonton. So take that for what it's worth)

Post July 15:
MLS goal diff in 10 games played: 15-19 (-4)
Champions Leauge in 6 games played: 7-8 (-1)

Further broken down

In a per game scenario, before Frings/Koevs in MLS we scored 0.6 fewer goals a game then our competition. Since they came that number improved to 0.3. That's a 100% improvement, without improving our backline and with Frei being injured for most of that 2nd half (not taking anything away from Kocic but he's number 2 on the depth chart, and for a reason).


I'm not trying to claim we're on pace to win the MLS cup next year but there's clear and evident signs of improvement. If my math is off (math is NOT my forte) let me know. Preferably politely. Also if anyone else feels like running some numbers I'd be very curious to know what TFCs BEST goal differencial and PPG numbers are

flatpicker
09-25-2011, 05:08 PM
Assuming this thread doesn't get closed down immediately,
I would just like to request that anyone posting in here discusses their views in a calm and mature manner.

Now, to me, the numbers suggest that Toronto is improving.
It also points out what everyone already knows... our defence is terrible.
That said, next season we should have Cann back in the lineup, and that might help.
I also expect a few new additions that will mend our weaknesses.

Overall, my outlook is positive.
But being a Toronto sports fan, I am always prepared for the worst to happen.

spark
09-25-2011, 05:15 PM
I don't think you can argue it's getting better but still not where it needs to be.

What you posted that in reply to was a post that was specifically talking about MLS Playoffs. If you split your table into CCL and MLS - the MLS 'stats' aren't good enough yet (3-4-3 over the 9 MLS games played).

Not trying to be a stick in the mud, because I do agree the team looks better overall, but I can't get super excited when four of those wins are against Real Esteli and Tauro.

MG42
09-25-2011, 05:58 PM
I don't think you can argue it's getting better but still not where it needs to be.

What you posted that in reply to was a post that was specifically talking about MLS Playoffs. If you split your table into CCL and MLS - the MLS 'stats' aren't good enough yet (3-4-3 over the 9 MLS games played).

Not trying to be a stick in the mud, because I do agree the team looks better overall, but I can't get super excited when four of those wins are against Real Esteli and Tauro.

I think this is a great point to keep in mind. I do have confidence that Winter will bring in some solid defenders during the break, I really don't think those coming back from injury are the answer, but what do I know lol

ArmenJBX
09-25-2011, 06:04 PM
When we lose, we lose big. That's a sign of immaturity - our defence needs to improve, with time and quality players.

[NBF]
09-25-2011, 06:10 PM
I don't think you can argue it's getting better but still not where it needs to be to make the playoffs.

What you posted that in reply to was a post that was specifically talking about MLS Playoffs. If you split your table into CCL and MLS - the MLS 'stats' aren't good enough yet (3-4-3 over the 9 MLS games played).

Not trying to be a stick in the mud, because I do agree the team looks better overall, but I can't get super excited when four of those wins are against Real Esteli and Tauro.

Yep +1. Like I said in the other thread, the teams in the MLS are fortefying themselves with talent. The MLS currently sold off a part of its advertising agency for over $100 million in order to pay for future DP signings and a possible 3 DP's per team in MLS. The likes of Koevermans might be good for one more season and he might just be a regular striker in MLS.

Also the Ghost of Adrian Cann is not good enough to start at the centre back position unless he is just brought back as Canadian backup centre back along with Doneil Henry. We need to use the international roster spots on starters.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_2wxFRKAilHM/SxrlP7IeamI/AAAAAAAADuk/624QsRz_c2E/s400/Scrooge5.jpg

ensco
09-25-2011, 06:31 PM
I would just like to request that anyone posting in here discusses their views in a calm and mature manner.


Tried that already. Had a mod tell me to eff off and never come back. Any other suggestions?

MG42
09-25-2011, 06:40 PM
Tried that already. Had a mod tell me to eff off and never come back. Any other suggestions?

yeah that was a little much

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTi5-mFg--_WrHdbCS2bcCqEVuPGArpzJO6w8Yx3Bpe6-6mLGa0XwZuhFHC6w

ensco
09-25-2011, 06:51 PM
yeah that was a little much


I've got more to say about that. I'm taking it to the member's forum.

flatpicker
09-25-2011, 06:59 PM
Gee Wiz ensco.
Let's hug it out, dude!
;)

ensco
09-25-2011, 07:19 PM
Gee Wiz ensco.
Let's hug it out, dude!
;)

Sure thing dude!

Waggy
09-25-2011, 11:33 PM
Well if we're continuing the line from the previous thread, my point there was that of course TFC right now isn't good enough to make the playoffs. Our backline is terrible. Our attack is inconsistent still. But we've improved greatly from where we were at the start of this year, and we aren't far away from being a playoff team. Improve at central defence and we make the playoffs. A real CB would allow Frings to play more in his natural position, next to deguz, and that should help fix our transitions (having 2 defensive mids of JDG on one side and Frings on the other to distribute/make runs/quarterback the transition game should seriously improve a lot of the issues with this team). Improve at CB AND improve in some other places and we aren't that bad a club. That jump from worst 2 teams in MLS to lower middle of the pack is a bigger and tougher jump than lower-middle of the pack to middle of the pack, or even upper middle of the pack. It's tough to escape the basement after being trapped there for so long. All I wanted to illustrate with the numbers is that we HAVE improved, and significantly. Not trying to say we are where we need to be, just that we clearly are on the path


Edit: I also don't think the CL games should be weighted the same as the MLS games. That's why I split the goal stats between MLS and CL. But if we're just talking about form, wins v loses, then every game counts. This isn't a team with a long tradition of winning, especially on the road. We shouldn't diminish our successes to highlight the negatives all the time, just like we shouldn't ignore weaknesses if we're getting results.

Kaz
09-26-2011, 07:40 AM
We've increased our point production well, we have scored nearly half hour goals in the first 9 games after the acquisitions. The big issue is defense right now, and that is something that can be worked on in the off season.

We have 2 issues in you line up right now, and it's the two positions in front of goal. Let Frings play up higher with two good CBs and we'll see the goal differential improve, and more points be earned.

Iro sucking so bad as a surprise to everyone I think, and Cann being injured has been a hurt. It's never a good thing when you have to rely on Ty Harden. I see only positives here. Are we there yet, can Winter sit back and say I'm done... no... nor is he. Has he done enough to improve things in the last 2 months now that he's understanding the league, to give him the time to finish... yes he has.

Every other coach saw the team start of strong but by this time of the year we dropped points left and right, that isn't happening, we are improving at the end of the season not getting worse. We should all be happy about that.

DoubleUp
09-26-2011, 12:26 PM
I dont want to appear as mister negative but torsten frings is not a midfielder in this league and plays much better(for the team) in the 3-4-3.

He has lost his pace/athleticism and can no longer make box to box runs on consitent basis. He already Professed in a photo jogging sucks, so why are we the fans adament on forcing the Midfielder(issue).What We need to do is find proper players that can play alongside Frings in a 3 man back line, so we can get our money`s worth.

P-NUTZ
09-26-2011, 12:46 PM
i want to thank batman for trying to put some numbers out there to discuss - awesome and thank you.

And, correcting errors is helpful to better appreciate the info so thanks for that - as long as the one doing it tries not to come off as a know-it-all-dik-asshole as some on the board do intentionally or not.

We are certainly a better team IMO and I am positive in that. We have a better attitude and personality. But we need more consistency and a few more new or healthy bodies to help that happen. Winter is a super guy and is really getting his coaching ability tested, with sometimes mixed results.

Overall the team is more more "thoughtful", but they sure are battling up a steep hill, still since the bar has been set much higher - and for a longer term this time.

But i think thats ok...

:drinking::drinking::drinking::drinking::drinking:

rocker
09-26-2011, 05:22 PM
Yep, the fact is that the team has improved as the season went on, based on the points tallies.
It's not where it needs to be, but I'm sure Winter and Mariner would agree with that too.
At least now we have most of the parts we need and don't have to turn over the roster again. A few targeted signings and this is a playoff team next year.