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__wowza
08-08-2011, 09:00 AM
no, im not trolling you. this is just a place where we can all look into the facts about our chances of making the playoffs. we got nine games to go and the teams behind us currently have 2 and three games in hand respectively. if we pull of 38 points, we have a .02% chance of making the playoffs1. i know the references are kind've wonky with some of you folks, but try and remember that the golden bar to get a playoff spot in the past has always been set in the 30's at least2.



FORMATINGS SHOT. I SHOT IT, GO HERE.
http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoffstandings



basically, in our last nine games we're going to need to pull out 6 or 7 wins. teams in the eat are doing assed, so if we're not at at least pulling in a 38, we're fucked.


predictions for our upcoming fixtures?
AUGUST 13th - RSL @ Home
AUGUST 21st - FIRE AWAY
AUGUST 27th - SJ @ HOME
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW AWAY
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS @ HOME
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS AWAY
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB @ HOME
OCTOBER 15th - UNION AWAY
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION @ HOME

1 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings

DangerRed
08-08-2011, 09:04 AM
predictions for our upcoming fixtures?
AUGUST 13th - RSL @ Home LOSS
AUGUST 21st - FIRE AWAY DRAW
AUGUST 27th - SJ @ HOME WIN
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW AWAY LOSS
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS @ HOME LOSS
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS AWAY WIN
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB @ HOME LOSS
OCTOBER 15th - UNION AWAY LOSS
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION @ HOME WIN


Grand total of 30 points. Even if a few of my loss predictions become draws, we fall well short of the playoffs.

menefreghista
08-08-2011, 09:08 AM
The current pace of the 10th place team is about 43 points. If that pace continues (and it has been around this number for the past couple of months), TFC would need 24 points in 9 games to even have a sniff at the playoffs.

I'm not expecting TFC to win 8 of 9 games down the stretch.

TFC has been out of the playoff race for weeks now.

A more plausible thread would be based around TFC's chances of finished dead last in the league.

ManUtd4ever
08-08-2011, 09:09 AM
To borrow a line from Vince McMahon's entrance theme song in the WWE...no chance in hell.

CCL is our playoffs now.

DangerRed
08-08-2011, 09:09 AM
Also, Rollins estimates that TFC could feasibly drop a maximum of 7 more points before it's mathematically out of the playoffs.

That's not a lot of room for error. Simply put, we lose 3 more and it's over.

Oldtimer
08-08-2011, 09:09 AM
No point in doing these calculations. As you yourself said, the odds are 0.02%. Why bother?

ryan
08-08-2011, 09:10 AM
I'm not convinced we can't beat RSL on Saturday. Their form isn't that great, coming off 2 losses then winning vs NYRB, who in my opinion didn't play very well at all.

Also, you've included the CCL match vs Dallas in there...

menefreghista
08-08-2011, 09:13 AM
AUGUST 24th - DALLAS @ HOME


This is a CCL game.


Also, Rollins estimates that TFC could feasibly drop a maximum of 7 more points before it's mathematically out of the playoffs.

That's not a lot of room for error. Simply put, we lose 3 more and it's over.

The problem with Rollins assessment is that he is basing it on needing 40 points to make it in, which is too low a bar.

But even at 40, that would mean TFC needing to get 20 points in 9 games.

__wowza
08-08-2011, 10:30 AM
This is a CCL game.


whoops, missed that. thanks for the heads up!

sashavukelich
08-08-2011, 10:35 AM
Thank you, we aren't out of it, until it's mathematically impossible.

Come on TFC! Surprise us for once!

Canary10
08-08-2011, 10:39 AM
I said doubling our points (when we were at 18 points with 11 games left) was my sign of progess. We now need 16 with 9 games to go after 2 draws. 36 won't get us in the playoffs though.

Heathen
08-08-2011, 11:31 AM
I'm not convinced we can't beat RSL on Saturday. Their form isn't that great, coming off 2 losses then winning vs NYRB, who in my opinion didn't play very well at all.

Also, you've included the CCL match vs Dallas in there...

You could have saved yourself a little typing there ryan :)

[NBF]
08-08-2011, 12:39 PM
Predictions for our upcoming fixtures?
AUGUST 13th - RSL @ Home - Loss
AUGUST 21st - FIRE AWAY - Win
AUGUST 27th - SJ @ HOME - Tie
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW AWAY - Loss
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS @ HOME - Loss
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS AWAY - Win
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB @ HOME - Loss
OCTOBER 15th - UNION AWAY - Loss
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION @ HOME - Tie

1 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings
2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Major_League_Soccer_season#Overall_standings)

Wins-2, Loss- 5, Tie-2

At our best I think we can tie NYRB @ Home, but winning would be a fairytale.

Yohan
08-08-2011, 12:46 PM
what a depressing thread

flatpicker
08-08-2011, 01:00 PM
what a depressing thread

Seriously.

Toronto has about as much chance of making the playoffs as the USA has of becoming debt free by next year.

The remaining games are pretty much just opportunities to fine-tune the team for Champions League.

The CCL should be our focus.
Let's concentrate on that, and get excited about that.

ensco
08-08-2011, 01:01 PM
You guys are missing it.

We are in a battle royale for the first overall pick. Right now.

Play the kids!

As long as we finish below 30 points, we're better than 50/50 to get it.

TOBOR !
08-08-2011, 01:03 PM
I've decided to build a small village in my garden and populate it with dolls - each one representing a TFC player. They'll play imaginary games against imaginary towns and afterward meet at my pub to discuss the result, upcoming games and further strategy. I'll call it Repaboville. Periodically you might find Andy Iro alone in his room, crying himself to sleep.

Yohan
08-08-2011, 01:04 PM
You guys are missing it.

We are in a battle royale for the first overall pick. Right now.

Play the kids!

As long as we finish below 30 points, we're better than 50/50 to get it.
well, 2nd overall pick bc of montreal

ensco
08-08-2011, 01:22 PM
well, 2nd overall pick bc of montreal

Oh right.

Looking very much like an all-Canadian podium for this.

__wowza
08-08-2011, 01:46 PM
NEW THREAD TOPIC
(INCEPTION)



Q: What would SALVAGE your season?


for me:
- making it outta the group stage.
- thrashing columbus 4-0.

maninb
08-08-2011, 01:50 PM
What a silly thread...as has been said for some weeks now...PLAYOFF HOPES ARE FINISHED...progress will be measured in the CCL, and improved results....

brad
08-08-2011, 01:56 PM
NEW THREAD TOPIC
(INCEPTION)



Q: What would SALVAGE your season?





-Making it out of the CCL Group Stage.
-team starts to get results and starts playing well. We stop leaking goals at the back and keep scoring. Basically, here I want to see indications that we are going to start next season with a competitive line up.

TOBOR !
08-08-2011, 02:11 PM
What a silly thread...as has been said for some weeks now...PLAYOFF HOPES ARE FINISHED...progress will be measured in the CCL, and improved results....

OI ! THIS IS A TORONTO FC FORUM, WHAT THEN ELSE TO DISCUSS OTHER THAN TORONTO FC ??? A MAN HAS THE RIGHT TO EXPRESS HIMSELF, SURELY ?....

NOW MOVE ALONG... HOP-IT !

http://wwwdelivery.superstock.com/WI/223/1598/PreviewComp/SuperStock_1598R-107035.jpg

__wowza
08-08-2011, 02:29 PM
http://www.isu.edu/english/Faculty/images/FolkePerson.jpg

oh thank goodness you arrived when you did bobby!
i was just expressing my opinion in this public forum when an up-to-no-gooder raced by and assaulted my freedom of speech!! i'll help you identify the scallywag as best i can, only if you agree, upon identifying of course, to take him round back for a bit of rough-and-tumble!! he was a welshmen, about your height..

Stouffville_RPB
08-08-2011, 02:40 PM
predictions for our upcoming fixtures?
AUGUST 13th - RSL (H) - LOSS
AUGUST 21st - FIRE (A) - DRAW
AUGUST 27th - SJ (H) - WIN
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW (A) - LOSS
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS (H) - LOSS
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS (A) - DRAW
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB (H) - LOSS
OCTOBER 15th - UNION (A) - LOSS
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION (H) - WIN

Don't see us making the playoffs. We haven't won on the road yet this season and have tough home matches left.

TOBOR !
08-08-2011, 03:05 PM
http://www.isu.edu/english/Faculty/images/FolkePerson.jpg

oh thank goodness you arrived when you did bobby!
i was just expressing my opinion in this public forum when an up-to-no-gooder raced by and assaulted my freedom of speech!! i'll help you identify the scallywag as best i can, only if you agree, upon identifying of course, to take him round back for a bit of rough-and-tumble!! he was a welshmen, about your height..

I'll have a word with the lads down at the station... we'll soon have this sorted... (anybody ?)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radioscotland/60s/img/events/z_cars.jpg

ryan
08-08-2011, 03:10 PM
certainly would be one hell of a start to the 2012 campaign with a Quarterfinal CCL leg.

ForestGlade
08-08-2011, 04:42 PM
What's even more depressing looking at the wild card race is how pitiful our goal differential is compared to the other teams in contention. -22? oof

CCL or bust. Hoping that Dallas doesn't give a shit about the tournament and focuses on the playoffs, and we get UNAM to underestimate the squad like Cruz Azul did

Fort York Redcoat
08-09-2011, 07:04 AM
If we scraped in by thrashing NE last game of the year that would be exceptional. I'm not big on thrashing Columbus so much. Getting our own back would be nice vs NY for the end of last year or Philly this year.

But honestly I don't rate playoffs so I'm good with getting out of the group stage.

KGH
08-15-2011, 08:25 AM
Call me delusional but:

AUGUST 13th - RSL @ Home WIN

AUGUST 21st - FIRE AWAY WIN
AUGUST 27th - SJ @ HOME WIN
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW AWAY WIN
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS @ HOME Tie
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS AWAY Tie
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB @ HOME WIN
OCTOBER 15th - UNION AWAY Tie
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION @ HOME WIN

Bring back fortress BMO

ryan
08-15-2011, 09:26 AM
You could have saved yourself a little typing there ryan :)

Who cares, I WAS RIGHT.

:scarf::scarf::scarf:

MartinUtd
08-15-2011, 10:18 AM
Currently @ 23 points

AUGUST 21st - FIRE AWAY Win
AUGUST 27th - SJ @ HOME Win
SEPTEMBER 10th - CREW AWAY Tie
SEPTEMBER 17th - RAPIDS @ HOME Win
SEPTEMBER 24th - CHIVAS AWAY Win
OCTOBER 1st - NYRB @ HOME Tie
OCTOBER 15th - UNION AWAY Loss
OCTOBER 22nd - REVOLUTION @ HOME Win


40 points. It could happen.

drewski
08-15-2011, 10:35 AM
aww the playoff race, the only thing that keeps kids interested in math. :lol: