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View Full Version : 2011 playoff chances tracking thread - July 3rd



Dave67
07-03-2011, 01:29 PM
After game 19 Win vs Vancouver , playoff odds up to 1.7%
After game 20 Lost to Red Bulls 0-5, playoff odds down 1.3 to 0.5%
After game 21 Lost to Dynamo 0-2, playoff odds down 0.4 to 0.2%
After game 22 Lost to FC Dallas 0-1, playoff odds down 0.1 to 0.08426%
After game 23 Lost to Sporting KC 2-4, playoff odds down 0.0 to 0.04365%
After game 24 Tied Timbers 2-2, playoff odds down 0.0 to 0.02863%

~~~~~~~~~~Frings and Koevermans begin game 22

July 3rd numbers.

Just curious what sort of results are required from here to get us into the 2011 playoffs. Looking at http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html) it seems like 24 more points or greater will be required (or 42 total points or higher) to have any real chance.

As of today we have 15 MLS games left this year. The following results seem to be at least achievable (dreamable)for TFC.

W..... D..... L..... % Chance of making playoffs
7....... 3..... 5 .....23.6
6....... 6..... 3 .....28.7
5....... 9..... 1..... 34.9
8....... 0..... 7..... 19.7
6....... 5..... 4..... 10.7
7....... 2..... 6....... 8.4
5....... 8..... 2...... 13.7
4...... 11.... 0...... 11.9


Anything worse and we can pretty much forget about it. On any given day we can compete with every team in this league (based on the LA draw), and soon we will have Koevermans and Frings.

If we need 7 wins they seem most likely to come from the following 9 games
** Too many away wins now needed We need to reclaim the fortress BMO **

Houston away Jul 9 LOSS
KC away Jul 23 LOSS
Portland away Jul 30 Draw
DCU away Aug 6
Chicago away Aug 21
San Jose Home Aug 27
Colorado Home Sept 17
Chivas away Sept 24
NE Home Oct 22


If we fail on the above games we will need to sneak a couple of wins from these tougher looking home and away games:
NYRB away Jul 6 - LOSS
Dallas home Jul 20 - LOSS
RSL home Aug 13
Crew away Sep 10
NYRB home Oct 1
Philly away Oct 15

I’m going to track the results from here on in out of curiousity. Looking at what we need to do on the road we will need one hell of a turnaround.

gcolacci
07-03-2011, 02:31 PM
I check this website all the time, and i agre it is a bit scary what were asking of our team, we have 3 wins in half the season and we realisically need 7 in the second half.

Its gonna be tough. we are going to have to be MUCH better.

I would love to see it happen, now we have to hope that NO more injuries happen!

Dave67
07-03-2011, 07:48 PM
Yeah. I assumed 7 or 8 wins would make the playoffs a lock but now it looks like 26 or 27 points are required. The new DPs will need to gell immediately to have any chance.

Stouffville_RPB
07-03-2011, 08:24 PM
I think if the home/away schedule was reversed we stand a WAAAAAAAAAAY better chance.

Too many road games me thinks.

brad
07-03-2011, 09:24 PM
Yeah. I assumed 7 or 8 wins would make the playoffs a lock but now it looks like 26 or 27 points are required. The new DPs will need to gell immediately to have any chance.

This is going to be a problem, I think. These guys are going to take some time to gel with the squad.

And in Koevermans case, he hasn't played much recently, so his match fitness is also going to be off for a while.

I honestly expect 5-10 games before we start to see the best of these guys (if we do - you never know with any signing).

Dave67
07-07-2011, 07:49 AM
After game 20 Loss to Red Bulls 0-5, playoff odds down 1.3 to 0.5%

Houston game is a big one for this club to show it has a pulse.

Fort York Redcoat
07-07-2011, 08:16 AM
U7fjDS0jKiE

Timely.

Brooker
07-07-2011, 11:10 AM
Somebody, please get Al Pacino in the locker room.

Dave67
07-10-2011, 08:08 AM
After game 21 Lost to Dynamo 0-2, playoff odds down 0.4 to 0.2%

We have almost no pulse. We still need 8 or 9 wins to get into the 42+ point range, but now we have only 13 games to do it in. No pressure Frings and Koevermans :)

Blixa
07-10-2011, 08:24 AM
Montreal have a better chance of getting into playoffs than us this season.