The Myth of MLS Home Field Dominance

[bgnewf]

The Myth of MLS Home Field Dominance

http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2011/06/the-myth-of-mls-home-field-dominance/

As the midway point of the MLS season nears for TFC I take a look at the home records of the Eastern Conference and learn that the Reds are not exactly out of it just yet. And I try to dispel the myth that MLS 2011 is a league with a true home field advantage.

[Heathen]

wait til Rocker sees this lol

[Blowing Bubbles]

your sample size is terribad. you're going to draw conclusions on HFA from 6-8 matches? really?

[Carts]

your sample size is terribad.

Kinda like this jersey... Definitely 'terribad'...

http://espn.go.com/media/pg2/2001/1120/photo/kings.jpg

I tried to find an image of the jacket Shaq called 'HORRIAWFUL' - but nothing came up... :(

Carts...

[ginkster88]

http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings

Still a terrible sample size, but look at that and tell me there is no HFA.

Teams in the East took 72 out of a possible 183 points (61 matches total) while at home, while only 54 of a possible 189 (63 matches total) on the road.

Teams in the West took 101 out of a possible 198 points (66 matches) while at home, while only 74 out of a possible 192 (64 matches) on the road.

Do you actually believe the stuff you write or are you just trying to be "controversial"?

Come on man.

[ginkster88]

I'm quoting you here:

"That works out to be 16.7% of road points secured which compares to an Eastern Conference average of 24.8%. No club in the East has earned more than 39% of road points so far, with only Philly and DC United being able to to that well on the road this season."

Sounds like the home teams are doing pretty okay to me!!

[Kevvv]

Every team in the league has a better home record except for Colorado and Chivas, and they're basically the same on the road or at home.

[Pookie]

I like the attention on this home and away record as a major pet peeve of mine is when folks describe a game as a good "road result." As if a tie is something to aim for.

If you expect a tie, that's the level you'll play to.

If you look at the standings from 2010, you'll see that of the 15 teams we played:

- 4 had a record at or below .500 (more losses than wins)
- 3 more had a record of just 2 wins above that mark meaning a loss in one of those games would put them at .500.

Practically speaking, there were 7 of 15 teams that had a relatively weak home record from which you could "expect" an opportunity to earn more than a draw.

This year, out of the 17 other teams in the league

- 5 currently have a home record at or below .500
- 4 more are within a game of that .500 mark

9 of 17 teams therefore have a home record which could cause one to expect more than just a "draw".

Somewhere close to half of the road games we play are winnable, from a statistical perspective.

[Roogsy]

Isn't this more a judgement of how bad the East is?

[rocker]

wait til Rocker sees this lol

haha. like the bat signal, your post has called me to this thread.

My previous study showed that since TFC started (pretty good sample size) it was something like (and this is off the top of my head since I don't have the data on this computer) about 50% of home teams win, 25% tie, 25% lose.

And playing TFC at one's home was almost a sure win, as TFC had the worst road record in that period. If you played TFC at yer home field, you won 65% of the time.

So it ain't a myth........