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View Full Version : Simon Kuper (Soccernomics) on Aron Winter



drewski
04-27-2011, 11:32 AM
http://blogs.thescore.com/footyblog/2011/04/26/the-footy-show-podcast-apr-26th/

starts ~35:30

-wishes him well
-thought Winter was good player but doesn't strike him as deep thinker about soccer
-no evidence he's the sort of person who's brilliantly equipped to do that kind of job
-TFC might have fallen into the fallacy that a very good player makes a good manager, but no evidence to support

for reference, he's a brit but raised in Holland and knows Ajax.

Beach_Red
04-27-2011, 11:43 AM
Well, does TFC really need a "deep thinker" or a brilliant guy?

We've been talking a lot about RSL lately and in that interview with Dave Checketts that was posted he mde a good point - a lot of the credit goes to Jason Kries, deservedly so, but it was just as important that they also hired Lagerwey, "A Georgetown law graduate," as GM. It might have been good for TFC to have had a lawyer negotiating contracts.

Winter isn't a one-man operation so a lot will depend on the job Mariner does, or really, the job they do together.

ExiledRed
04-27-2011, 11:58 AM
Well, does TFC really need a "deep thinker" or a brilliant guy?

Well this is whats been sold to us, and what seems like the majority of posts on this board seem to be lapping up. It takes brilliance and careful analysis of the local game to create and implement a system that not only wins trophies but defines the identity of a club for future generations.

pekduck
04-27-2011, 12:00 PM
I thought that's Klinnsman's role to create vision and objective, then hired Aron, Bob and Paul to implement

of course, i'm not informed, so just a thought

v00d00daddy
04-27-2011, 12:05 PM
Hopefully kuper is wrong but only time will tell.

For further context...kuper is a history/anthropology dude who writes about footy.

So, at the end of the day hes another writer and what exactly do writers know about great football minds and tactics?

Grain of salt imo

Find me a great soccer mind who says that winter is not a good soccer mind

Auzzy
04-27-2011, 12:12 PM
I can't listen to the interview now. However, I wonder how much Simon Kuper knows about MLS? I've read most of Soccernomics, and I think it's a great book. However, large parts of it are not very relevant to MLS, with its salary cap & many other rules. I just wonder if Kuper is the right "expert" to decide how the combo of Winter, Mariner, and De Klerk will do in Toronto & MLS.

TOBOR !
04-27-2011, 12:14 PM
Hopefully kuper is wrong but only time will tell.

For further context...kuper is a history/anthropology dude who writes about footy.

So, at the end of the day hes another writer and what exactly do writers know about great football minds and tactics?

Grain of salt imo

Find me a great soccer mind who says that winter is not a good soccer mind


^ Pretty much.

Kuper seems to have formed an opinion without much evidence. I think it's too early to tell what sort of tactical acumen Winter possesses. Let's ask him again what he thinks in a few years.

Ossington Mental Youth
04-27-2011, 12:16 PM
Winter isn't a one-man operation so a lot will depend on the job Mariner does, or really, the job they do together.

pretty much.
also i dont remember Winter ever being sold to us as a brilliant soccer mind so muhc as having experience as a player and as a coach of the reserves and in the academy

Ossington Mental Youth
04-27-2011, 12:20 PM
also im not entirely convinced this dudes opinion counts for much especially seeing as we are only 7 games into the season and this is the first first team Winter has coached (with Mariner and De Klerk helping).

Beach_Red
04-27-2011, 12:22 PM
^ Pretty much.

Kuper seems to have formed an opinion without much evidence. I think it's too early to tell what sort of tactical acumen Winter possesses. Let's ask him again what he thinks in a few years.


A few years? How come TFC always has to be someone's on-the-job-training?

Ossington Mental Youth
04-27-2011, 12:30 PM
fair enough but who in the league would have been interested to take the spot in a hostile environment which has seen little success on the field in 4 years?

would you want to take a coach from outside the league with no experience in the MLS?

those are really the only options outside of hte one we picked

Oldtimer
04-27-2011, 12:30 PM
When RSL hired Kreis as coach, Garber nearly chocked on his coffee.

He had no record whatsoever, except as a player.

Kuper's footy expertise is statistics. Apart from that, he is no more knowledgeable than the average person on this board.

ManUtd4ever
04-27-2011, 12:31 PM
A few years? How come TFC always has to be someone's on-the-job-training?

I agree with Tobor. What kind of substantive opinion can possibly be formulated after a month, or even a year?

I guarantee that Jason Kreis would have had an abysmal evaluation after his first year of "on the job training" with RSL. A couple of years later, and Kreis is now the toast of the league.

Oldtimer
04-27-2011, 12:33 PM
pretty much.
also i dont remember Winter ever being sold to us as a brilliant soccer mind so muhc as having experience as a player and as a coach of the reserves and in the academy

Klinnsman was sold to us as the soccer mind, not Winter. Winter was sold as a promising young coach, with an Ajax background. No one ever said he was Cruyff.

Some media started talking about "total football," which is nonsense (but is all that people know about Dutch football), but that didn't come from ML$E.

Beach_Red
04-27-2011, 12:41 PM
I agree with Tobor. What kind of substantive opinion can be possibly be formulated after a month, or even a year?

I guarantee that Jason Kreis would have had an abysmal evaluation after his first year of "on the job training" with RSL. A couple of years later, and Kreis is now the toast of the league.


Oh, there's a good chance that Winter and Mariner will be the toasts of the league in a year or two, I'm still very optimistic.

But like Checketts said, the hiring of Lagerwey - a lawyer as well as an ex-player - helped a lot. Who knows, on his own Kriess may have failed. That's why it's really the Winter-Mariner combination that makes this look good.

Oldtimer
04-27-2011, 12:44 PM
Like I've said before, RSL is our model on how to get out of the mess left by MoJo.

menefreghista
04-27-2011, 12:48 PM
Kuper seems to have formed an opinion without much evidence. I think it's too early to tell what sort of tactical acumen Winter possesses. Let's ask him again what he thinks in a few years.

It goes both ways though. A lot of TFC fans have put their faith in Winter and Mariner despite no real proof so far that the right moves are being made.

Mr. Bigby
04-27-2011, 12:50 PM
A few years? How come TFC always has to be someone's on-the-job-training?



Because, for better or worse, MLS is not exactly the Holy Grail, footie coaching wise. It is a lower - maybe mid-level league with aspirations of greatness. As in many other sports coaches are expected to learn on the job and climb the league ladders as they show competence (or better) at each level. Winter has shown his competence at the developmental level with Ajax. Now he is taking the next step. Don't think for a moment that if he does an outstanding job at TFC we will keep him forever. He'll move on to greater challenges (and bigger paycheques).

TorontoBlades
04-27-2011, 01:21 PM
soccernomics was the most painful read ever

Chevy
04-27-2011, 02:07 PM
Because, for better or worse, MLS is not exactly the Holy Grail, footie coaching wise. It is a lower - maybe mid-level league with aspirations of greatness. As in many other sports coaches are expected to learn on the job and climb the league ladders as they show competence (or better) at each level. Winter has shown his competence at the developmental level with Ajax. Now he is taking the next step. Don't think for a moment that if he does an outstanding job at TFC we will keep him forever. He'll move on to greater challenges (and bigger paycheques).

+1. MLS is ranked around 30-40th in the world in terms of player quality, so the same should hold relatively true for coaching expertise.

I for one think the new team has done a commendable job. For the first time in five years you can actually tell there is a system in place and a theory on how to win.

Granted its still a theory as we don't yet have the bodies to win consistently. Considering the foundation can be seen after just a few games is a great sign.

Heathen
04-27-2011, 06:57 PM
I love it how everybody treats Soccernomics as some kind of bible

rocker
04-27-2011, 09:24 PM
The funny thing is, Soccernomics wouldn't approach assessing coaches using opinions of whether they are "deep thinkers" or not. The authors would whip out some stats to find out whether a coach wins more games than average coaches or something. Indeed, the "sample size" of Winter wouldn't be enough for conclusions in the Soccernomics way of looking at things.

Auzzy
04-28-2011, 12:04 AM
I love it how everybody treats Soccernomics as some kind of bible

Which "people" exactly? I would say a significant majority of folks posting in this thread, are taking Kuper's comments with a big grain of salt.

scooter
04-28-2011, 07:28 AM
winter is doing just fine -- i watched tfc play football last night

tictoc
04-28-2011, 07:29 AM
The funny thing is, Soccernomics wouldn't approach assessing coaches using opinions of whether they are "deep thinkers" or not. The authors would whip out some stats to find out whether a coach wins more games than average coaches or something. Indeed, the "sample size" of Winter wouldn't be enough for conclusions in the Soccernomics way of looking at things.

This is perfect and should be forwarded to Kuper.

maninb
04-28-2011, 07:37 AM
Winter was brought in because he did a very good job DEVELOPING YOUNG PLAYERS into GOOD TEAMS in Ajax Youth system...which is EXACTLY what's expected of him here...and he's ably helped by deKlerk and Mariner...I listened to the Kuper interview on the Score, and nothing he said seemed relevant to MLS or TFC....what was annoying was listening to Kritian jack (who I respect) acting like a love-struck little girl during the interview...it was sickening..

spark
04-28-2011, 07:54 AM
The funny thing is, Soccernomics wouldn't approach assessing coaches using opinions of whether they are "deep thinkers" or not. The authors would whip out some stats to find out whether a coach wins more games than average coaches or something. Indeed, the "sample size" of Winter wouldn't be enough for conclusions in the Soccernomics way of looking at things.

Everyone is also aware that Kuper wrote a book on the history of Ajax? Not to mention others on soccer that aren't based on stats?

Detroit_TFC
04-28-2011, 11:37 AM
On the other hand, TFC has a manager that Kuper has heard of.

Heathen
04-28-2011, 11:40 AM
Which "people" exactly? I would say a significant majority of folks posting in this thread, are taking Kuper's comments with a big grain of salt.

OK sorry not everybody but there are plenty who do, the Score are always bigging Kuper up

Stouffville_RPB
04-28-2011, 11:48 AM
Kuper is entitled to his own option.

For a club that wants to play entertaining football with a large focus on youth development Winter seemed (and still seems) to me to be a good choice. Couple that with the pairing of Mariner and his MLS experience and I don't see why this isn't a good hire.

ag futbol
04-28-2011, 06:10 PM
Like I've said before, RSL is our model on how to get out of the mess left by MoJo.
Let's not make out every candidate with no previous head-coaching experience to be Jason Kreis.

ensco
04-28-2011, 06:55 PM
I accept that Winter has experience in developing players. If he has a particularly good track record, eg players who credit him for getting them into the big time, I'm unaware of it. Doesn't mean that evidence of excellence doesn't exist. We do know he was let go by Ajax. That doesn't mean much either, these big teams are all political cesspools, few can last for that long.

I do believe Klinsmann may have been able to figure some of this out. Hopefully he did. I have no faith that the Anselmi or Beirne would be able to do due diligence on him.

But I worry that this particular skill of Winter's, player development, doesn't translate well here - totally different culture.

Away from that, nobody here has any clue at all, really, as to whether Winter will be a success as a manager, because that's really about player acquisition. Totally different from development. Not saying development isn't important too.

It's anybody's guess.

Ossington Mental Youth
04-28-2011, 06:57 PM
Away from that, nobody here has any clue at all, really, as to whether Winter will be a success. It's anybody's guess.

yep pretty much., can only go on what we see now, even then people are going to differ

Gazza_55
04-28-2011, 07:11 PM
Let's not make out every candidate with no previous head-coaching experience to be Jason Kreis.

Or to be Chris Cummins. It goes both ways.

ilikemusic
04-28-2011, 08:19 PM
http://blogs.thescore.com/footyblog/2011/04/26/the-footy-show-podcast-apr-26th/

starts ~35:30

-wishes him well
-thought Winter was good player but doesn't strike him as deep thinker about soccer
-no evidence he's the sort of person who's brilliantly equipped to do that kind of job
-TFC might have fallen into the fallacy that a very good player makes a good manager, but no evidence to support

for reference, he's a brit but raised in Holland and knows Ajax.

TFC have just fallen into the same fallacy they always have; that anybody with a thick accent is qualified to run a football team.

jloome
04-29-2011, 10:35 AM
TFC have just fallen into the same fallacy they always have; that anybody with a thick accent is qualified to run a football team.

Gee, analytical.

TOBOR !
04-29-2011, 10:46 AM
TFC have just fallen into the same fallacy they always have; that anybody with a thick accent is qualified to run a football team.

We've been discussing whether Kuper's comments are valid based either on his 'expertise' or Winter's 'resume'. Join in.

jabbronies
04-29-2011, 11:15 AM
Well I'm going to judge Winter, by:

- The style of play the team is displaying.
- Seeing the players that are being shipped out and the ones being brought in.
- Seeing the players that are benched more often than not, and when they are brought in, what situations they are in.
- hearing his post game interviews and what he likes/doesn't like.
- results against other MLS teams.

I really don't care about what any oversea's writers/pundits with an accent have to say just yet.

johntv
04-30-2011, 06:40 PM
It is Kuiper for staters.I know Simon and his knowledge of soccer but not including coaching is second to none and ranks him right up there.I must admit that when I met him he was very interested in Jonathan Deguzman.Simon says I guess,he just relies on statistics and they say Winter does not have those credentials that would rank him among these other famous Dutch giants.Nor was Cruiff,who in fact has a lot less than Aron in coaching experience and let us not forget Bob DeClerc a top soccer coach at Ajax,,who often is discussed along the lines of Frank Deboer the Ajax coach.Bob and Frank are soccer training and coaching giants.With Aron and his amazing wealth of playing as well as having been exposed to that system of not only playing but training including the technical site,we are very fortunate.

Blixa
04-30-2011, 08:04 PM
If Winter had a brilliant soccer mind he wouldn't be coaching TFC.

Batman
04-30-2011, 08:09 PM
If Winter had a brilliant soccer mind he wouldn't be coaching TFC.

I completely disagree.

Brilliant or not, everyone has to have their first head coaching gig somewhere.

I'm happy his first gig his here.

Time will tell whether he's brilliant or not, but the fact he's here, certainly doesn't mean he's not.

Heathen
05-01-2011, 12:46 AM
It is Kuiper for staters.I know Simon and his knowledge of soccer but not including coaching is second to none and ranks him right up there.I must admit that when I met him he was very interested in Jonathan Deguzman.Simon says I guess,he just relies on statistics and they say Winter does not have those credentials that would rank him among these other famous Dutch giants.Nor was Cruiff,who in fact has a lot less than Aron in coaching experience and let us not forget Bob DeClerc a top soccer coach at Ajax,,who often is discussed along the lines of Frank Deboer the Ajax coach.Bob and Frank are soccer training and coaching giants.With Aron and his amazing wealth of playing as well as having been exposed to that system of not only playing but training including the technical site,we are very fortunate.

yeah very fucking fortunate

AL-MO
05-01-2011, 12:57 AM
When RSL hired Kreis as coach, Garber nearly chocked on his coffee.

He had no record whatsoever, except as a player.

Kuper's footy expertise is statistics. Apart from that, he is no more knowledgeable than the average person on this board.

Wasn't his co-writer the stats guy?

Parkdale
05-01-2011, 09:24 AM
Brilliant or not, everyone has to have their first head coaching gig somewhere.


and for a first time head coach, being in the 'soccer wilderness' might be a good thing. Sure we put him under the microscope, but it's a safe haven from the big leagues of Europe.

Plus if he leaves after a few years with a bad record, I think that everyone else will understand that "oh, that's just Toronto". He walked into a tough spot, and either he succeeds or he doesn't. It's not like he's taking a contender and getting them relegated.

ilikemusic
05-01-2011, 01:48 PM
Total Football?

I would settle for a quarter football, or even sixteenth football at this point.