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bgnewf
08-30-2010, 02:33 PM
Déjà Vu All Over Again? - Parallels To TFC's Playoff Quest From 2009

http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/deja-vu-all-over-again/ (http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/deja-vu-all-over-again/)

After 21 games of the 2010 MLS season it is starting to feel like 2009 for Toronto FC in many ways. The stark reality for TFC fans is that the 2010 season to date has many parallels with the unsuccessful 2009 campaign.

Comments always welcome.

ilikemusic
08-30-2010, 02:38 PM
Its the same as every year.

Were looking good in June, things get a little shaky in July when we start playing our stupid cash-grab friendlies, and the team is life and death to win a single game after August 1.

For fucks sake Mo has got to go.

Just for fun, here is our form, by month (with no distinction between league and cup matches)...

March - L (0/3) - 0%
April - LWLWW (9/15) - 60%
May - LWWDDWW (14/21) - 66%
June - DDD (1/9) - 11%
July - DWLDDWL (9/21) - 42%
August - DWLWLLD (8/49) - 16%

Overall - 41/118 pts = 34% of total points earned

menefreghista
08-30-2010, 02:42 PM
Its the same as every year.

Were looking good in June, things get a little shaky in July when we start playing our stupid cash-grab friendlies, and the team is life and death to win a single game after August 1.

For fucks sake Mo has got to go.

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. The only thing your missing is:

Slow start due to Mo sitting on his ass all off-season, wasting the first few weeks of the season to finish building the team....

Roogsy
08-30-2010, 02:43 PM
Funny enough, I think the team we have this year might have the discipline not to fall apart like last year and quite possibly make it to 40 points. Of that I am pretty confident. Two problems with that. As has been evident last season, I don't think 40 points gets you into the playoffs. And second, I am blown away by the casual acceptance of mediocrity. As a life-long Leafs fan, I have only known this life of "sneaking" into the final spot for the playoffs in the final games of the season. Coming down to the wire is all I have known and I have been hoping for more from TFC, from a league and a sport where turning a team around isn't as hard as it would be for other sports and other leagues.

If we sneak into the playoffs with 39 points, I won't be anymore happy with this team than if we reach 40 points and don't make it into the playoffs. We are playing ugly football in an effort to reach mediocre results in order to rely on luck to get us deeper into the territory of "success". That's loathesome to me.

ArmenJBX
08-30-2010, 02:45 PM
I know it's bad, but it's the reality of our situation.

I'd love to be Los Angeles Galaxy-like, qualifying ahead of time and being comfortable, but that's not the reality here, unfortunately.

Maybe one day we will be. :D

__wowza
08-30-2010, 02:56 PM
Funny enough, I think the team we have this year might have the discipline not to fall apart like last year and quite possibly make it to 40 points.

+ 1

:) the rest is debatable, but i aint gonna debate it cause i hate the leafs.

Roogsy
08-30-2010, 02:57 PM
Maybe one day we will be. :D

That "maybe" will only come from a concerted effort to become "that" team. Right now, this team isn't striving to become a dominant force in the league, this team can barely get it's act together enough to make it into the playoffs. So without changes (whatever those changes need to be), that "maybe" will never happen.

Oldtimer
08-30-2010, 03:01 PM
That "maybe" will only come from a concerted effort to become "that" team. Right now, this team isn't striving to become a dominant force in the league, this team can barely get it's act together enough to make it into the playoffs. So without changes (whatever those changes need to be), that "maybe" will never happen.

I think the main change needs to be in the GM's office.

RSL was the bottom of the league for several years till they ditched their GM and brought someone else in. Look at them now.

rocker
08-30-2010, 03:03 PM
Los Angeles Galaxy-like,

this phrasing has meant different things over the past 4 seasons! ;)

Darlofletch
08-30-2010, 03:38 PM
Its the same as every year.

Were looking good in June, things get a little shaky in July when we start playing our stupid cash-grab friendlies, and the team is life and death to win a single game after August 1.

For fucks sake Mo has got to go.

Just for fun, here is our form, by month (with no distinction between league and cup matches)...

March - L (0/3) - 0%
April - LWLWW (9/15) - 60%
May - LWWDDWW (14/21) - 66%
June - DDD (3/9) - 33%
July - DWLDDWL (9/21) - 42%
August - DWLWLLD (8/21) - 38%

Overall - 43/90 pts = 48% of total points earned

fyp.

Globetrotter
08-30-2010, 03:48 PM
39 pts? Lets try 42 pts to make the playoffs. 43 so we don't need to worry about tie breakers.

In any event, to get to 42 points in 9 games (6 of which are on the road, and a home match against a team we have never beaten - home or away) we would have to do something like this....

5 wins 4 losses
4 wins 3 ties 2 losses
3 wins 6 ties 0 losses

bgnewf
08-30-2010, 03:49 PM
39 pts? Lets try 42 pts to make the playoffs. 43 so we don't need to worry about tie breakers.

In any event, to get to 42 points in 9 games (6 of which are on the road, and a home match against a team we have never beaten - home or away) we would have to do something like this....

5 wins 4 losses
4 wins 3 ties 2 losses
3 wins 6 ties 0 losses

Tough math eh?

Not impossible math but tough math that's for sure.

Globetrotter
08-30-2010, 03:59 PM
Well, it's a tough go for sure. At least we're consistent on how the season flows.

As I see: We get 10 more points and finish with 37 points. Might win the last one in DC if the 40 pts means we would fall into a playoff spot. I think Columbus gives us the final nail in the coffin the week before though.
Wins: DC SEA
Ties: CHI SJ CHV CLB
Losses: DAL HOU DC

Bars92
08-30-2010, 05:08 PM
A draw in Dallas this weekend would be epic. However, I cannot bare to watch the away games any more.

ManUtd4ever
08-30-2010, 05:37 PM
The playoffs are a longshot at best. If TFC is to overcome the odds I think the following results are necessary over the remaining games of the schedule:

Home - Away

D -Dallas
W-Chicago
W-DC United
D-Houston
W-San Jose
D-Seattle
D-Chivas USA
D-Columbus
W-DC United

A total of 17 points earned the rest of the way would give TFC 44 points for the season which would be a comfortable position for the 6th-8th playoff seeds. Unlikely but still a possibility...

geordie77
08-30-2010, 09:02 PM
so how do you fix the TFC?
the teams salary cap is so *&^%$# up. we have players on the bench making more than most of the starting 11. who on the TFC line up would be on a starting 11 of a top MLS team? who would be the GM? who would be coach? making the playoffs is just not good enough, we deserve more but I will still renew my season ticket. do we have a top 6 to use a hockey term?

geordie77
08-30-2010, 09:05 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

check out the stats, most interesting.

Roogsy
08-30-2010, 10:07 PM
Interesting, thanks Geordie.

I think what popped out for me was the fact that despite dropping points, it didn't really affect the odds of TFC making it into the playoffs which remained at slightly better than 21%.

The problem with this graph is that I am not sure it takes into account probabilities based on the home vs away factor. If it doesn't, and we chose to factor that in, our odds are likely worse that 21%.

KiwiRedsFan
08-30-2010, 10:09 PM
can someone please explain to me how many teams from each conference make the play offs and what does TFC have to do to make it?

SirBobSaget
08-30-2010, 11:34 PM
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

check out the stats, most interesting.


Seems to me its time to give up the playoffs hoop dreams and focus on making it out of group stage in CL. If TFC does sneak into 8th spot that means a home and away with #1? yikes

Yagbod
08-30-2010, 11:48 PM
can someone please explain to me how many teams from each conference make the play offs and what does TFC have to do to make it?

Q1: Top 2 in each conf get in. The next 4 spots are based on total pts. So 6 from the West is possible (probable).

Q2: Get Jesus Christ to play as Striker (imagine the thunder when he scores!!!)

KezmanCCCC
08-31-2010, 12:40 AM
This season very well feels all to much like last season and the other first two seasons... i honestly dont see TFC making it into the playoffs for the fourth season in a row... which is sad for me to say seeing how TFC is one of the most important things to me and i want nothing more but for our club to be a powerhouse in the MLS and Concacaf and i do think we will be there eventualy... we just dont have the depth in the squad which seems to be a trend.. and we cant always rely on a hand full of consistent players... TFC is a hard working club... but to be honest i think we only have 5-6 really talented players in our squad and when we take a few of them out of the team for a game or two we usually dont get anything... which seems like it happening... with injuries and schedule congestion... Mo needs to go i think he is a major problem in the club and really needs to go after this season is over regardless of our success/failure...

Yagbod
08-31-2010, 01:03 AM
Make DeRo a DP. He's earned it, and wouldn't it free up about 200k+?

Just a thought and just a start.

Derko
08-31-2010, 04:59 AM
A draw in Dallas this weekend would be epic. However, I cannot bare to watch the away games any more.

Fortunatley I am in the U.K. for the next month, because when ever I actualy watch an away game TFC sucks, here is hoping me being away will bring some luck! lol.


:scarf::drinking::canada:

ensco
08-31-2010, 07:21 AM
Interesting, thanks Geordie.

I think what popped out for me was the fact that despite dropping points, it didn't really affect the odds of TFC making it into the playoffs which remained at slightly better than 21%.

The problem with this graph is that I am not sure it takes into account probabilities based on the home vs away factor. If it doesn't, and we chose to factor that in, our odds are likely worse that 21%.

This is correct. The site explicit calculates odds based on current record of future opponents only.

Ageroo
08-31-2010, 07:33 AM
Make DeRo a DP. He's earned it, and wouldn't it free up about 200k+?

Just a thought and just a start.

They are paying him close to the player cap anyway...aren't they...So I don't think that would free up any money at all. But I am not as well versed on the salary structure as others on here.

bgnewf
08-31-2010, 12:31 PM
http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/mo-johnston-by-the-numbers/

More of the same from Mo Johnston.

Yagbod
08-31-2010, 12:41 PM
They are paying him close to the player cap anyway...aren't they...So I don't think that would free up any money at all. But I am not as well versed on the salary structure as others on here.

I thought that the cap hit for the DP was in the 300k+ range and dero is making 500k+ ?

Does anyone know for sure?

Roogsy
08-31-2010, 12:52 PM
According to the MLS player's salaries list, DeRo makes 375k base with his total comp at just under 444k.

Oldtimer
08-31-2010, 12:53 PM
http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/mo-johnston-by-the-numbers/

More of the same from Mo Johnston.

Nothing that we didn't at least generally know, but it's good to see it all collected in one place. A great summary of why Mo must go, and that's not even including things like the internal politics and mistreatment of former players.

75+ players? Wow, I must have lost track.

bgnewf
08-31-2010, 01:07 PM
Nothing that we didn't at least generally know, but it's good to see it all collected in one place. A great summary of why Mo must go, and that's not even including things like the internal politics and mistreatment of former players.

75+ players? Wow, I must have lost track.

Thanks!

I tried to keep it from getting personal and I did not talk about the innuendo out there (Barry MacLean/First Wave, slagging former players, meddling in the day to day running of the club).

I think Mo has done enough that is quantifiable in the public domain to forfeit his job without the need to get into rumours and slander/libel.

Roogsy
08-31-2010, 01:32 PM
http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/mo-johnston-by-the-numbers/

More of the same from Mo Johnston.



Holy crap...that blog post says it all.

TFC Cityboy
08-31-2010, 01:50 PM
those numbers are pretty damning

Suds
08-31-2010, 01:54 PM
2:51 and I need a mid day pick-me-up and then I read that ... I should know better :frown5: .... good job on the blog, I'm talking about the reality of the info.


Starting Saturday we need to put a serious run of wins together or we are pooched!

menefreghista
08-31-2010, 01:56 PM
http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/mo-johnston-by-the-numbers/

More of the same from Mo Johnston.

Nice job.

I wonder if Rick Titus, Tim Regan and Diaz Kambere should be considered for your player list. They all played in one official MLS game back in 2008.

bgnewf
08-31-2010, 02:10 PM
Nice job.

I wonder if Rick Titus, Tim Regan and Diaz Kambere should be considered for your player list. They all played in one official MLS game back in 2008.

But they were never under contract. That was why I chose not to include those three callups for that Chivas game.

Good eye though! :wink:

geordie77
08-31-2010, 07:37 PM
.........so, who becomes the GM & does Preki deserve another season????????????

KezmanCCCC
08-31-2010, 10:09 PM
http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/mo-johnston-by-the-numbers/

More of the same from Mo Johnston.

Great blog read... MO MUST GO... no matter what the out come of 2010 happens to be... i think at this point Preki and Mo just want TFC to squeak into the playoff to just say it finally has happened... well that isnt good enough any longer... we must demand consistency from the club for once and for all... which has truly been the major problem (due to bad management and not having the proper players on the pitch at all times)....

:scarf:<3

Oldtimer
09-01-2010, 07:39 AM
.........so, who becomes the GM & does Preki deserve another season????????????

Look at Real Salt Lake. They didn't need to get a star GM or coach, and they won the cup last year.


After failing to make the playoffs in their first three seasons, RSL ended their playoff drought in 2008http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Salt_Lake

They had 3 years of futility, with a poor GM and a poor coach. They fired both of them and started over.

Their GM is Garth Largerwey:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garth_Lagerwey

he is a former GK who got a law degree, and used that to get a FO position. I don't follow RSL that closely, but it doesn't seem that he is as involved in the operations as MoJo is here, he is involved more in the business side.

Their coach is Jason Kreis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Kreis

Like Jimmy B., he is a player who moved into management. There was no coaching experience before RSL, RSL is the only team he's ever coached.


He is the youngest coach in MLS history to win the MLS Cup.By getting a player who knows the game to coach, and by not interfering with his coaching activities, they turned around a perennial loser into a champion team.

The key is to have people in charge with good character and knowledge.

What TFC needs is to have Mo go. Then let the new GM decide if Preki is a coach that he can work with and that if Preki is given a free hand he will be able to build a quality team in the next 2 years. If either of those don't apply, the new GM should be allowed to choose his own coach to replace Preki.

The general rule in judging a GM is that they get 2 coaches. If neither works out, fire the GM. Somehow, MoJo has managed to last through 4 coaches, including himself. He should have been fired after last year's New York game, not even given coach #4.

koryo
09-01-2010, 07:45 AM
Look at Real Salt Lake. They didn't need to get a star GM or coach, and they won the cup last year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Salt_Lake

They had 3 years of futility, with a poor GM and a poor coach. They fired both of them and started over.

Their GM is Garth Largerwey:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garth_Lagerwey

he is a former GK who got a law degree, and used that to get a FO position. I don't follow RSL that closely, but it doesn't seem that he is as involved in the operations as MoJo is here, he is involved more in the business side.

Their coach is Jason Kreis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jason_Kreis

Like Jimmy B., he is a player who moved into management. There was no coaching experience before RSL, RSL is the only team he's ever coached.

By getting a player who knows the game to coach, and by not interfering with his coaching activities, they turned around a perennial loser into a champion team.

The key is to have people in charge with good character and knowledge.

What TFC needs is to have Mo go. Then let the new GM decide if Preki is a coach that he can work with and that if Preki is given a free hand he will be able to build a quality team in the next 2 years. If either of those don't apply, the new GM should be allowed to choose his own coach to replace Preki.

The general rule in judging a GM is that they get 2 coaches. If neither works out, fire the GM. Somehow, MoJo has managed to last through 4 coaches, including himself. He should have been fired after last year's New York game, not even given coach #4.

Can't disagree with any of this.

It begs the question though: do we as a group have the will to state our verdict on Johnston in the stands? Because I still hear some "wait and see..."
but for the life of me cannot understand why.

bgnewf
09-01-2010, 08:07 AM
Stevie Nichol would be my choice for TFC as GM and Coach.

MLS is a league where you have to try and do two things. First manage the cap and scout well so that you get best bang for the buck. Second is get to the playoffs as often as possible to give your club a chance to win. Nichol has consistently done both. Give him some resources that the Kraft family in Boston won't give him and he would do wonders in Toronto.

I repeat myself for emphasis... Tom Anselmi, it you are reading this, drive a dump truck full of money up to his house and beg him on bended knee to move to Toronto and clean up Mo's mess.

koryo
09-01-2010, 08:08 AM
Stevie Nichol would be my choice for TFC as GM and Coach.

MLS is a league where you have to try and do two things. First manage the cap and scout well so that you get best bang for the buck. Second is get to the playoffs as often as possible to give your club a chance to win. Nichol has consistently done both. Give him some resources that the Kraft family in Boston won't give him and he would do wonders in Toronto.

I repeat myself for emphasis... Tom Anselmi, it you are reading this, drive a dump truck full of money up to his house and beg him on bended knee to move to Toronto and clean up Mo's mess.

Plenty of us have wanted him from day one.

Oldtimer
09-01-2010, 08:14 AM
Stevie Nichol would be my choice for TFC as GM and Coach.

MLS is a league where you have to try and do two things. First manage the cap and scout well so that you get best bang for the buck. Second is get to the playoffs as often as possible to give your club a chance to win. Nichol has consistently done both. Give him some resources that the Kraft family in Boston won't give him and he would do wonders in Toronto.

I repeat myself for emphasis... Tom Anselmi, it you are reading this, drive a dump truck full of money up to his house and beg him on bended knee to move to Toronto and clean up Mo's mess.


Plenty of us have wanted him from day one.

He'd be a great choice, if he'd come.

If he's under contract after this year, you'd have to be careful, though, or you could be accused of tampering.
The best solution is two truckloads of money. One for Nichol, the other for the Kraft family to buy his rights.

However, if you can't get someone like him, it's no reason to give up. As I posted above, you don't even need a proven winner to get a winning team. You just need people with the right knowledge and character. There aren't really many star coaches in this league.

Beach_Red
09-01-2010, 08:19 AM
Plenty of us have wanted him from day one.


Except as MLS has been changing over the last four years NE has been getting steadily worse. You can maybe blame that on the ownership but that likely isn't any better here.

The big problem may be that TFC is owned by accountants who look for quantifiable improvements year by year and will only ever have a 'mid-table' style (because it's not like they're doing any better with their other teams). Newf's link didn't work for me, but has the player revolving door been consistent in each year or is it slowing down? If it's slowing down the bad news is this ownership will feel that the team is moving from being an expansion team to more settled.

So, whoever did the interview with Mo and decided he was the guy - and then gave him contract extensions - will also conduct the interviews with the next candidates.

The fake Anselmi diary is fun reading, but it also gives some insight into the organization. It needs major cleaning out at the top and a whole new attitude from the top down.

Roogsy
09-01-2010, 09:03 AM
Plenty of us have wanted him from day one.



Yep...


I firmly believe Nicol knows this league. He has had plenty of success on a team that has refused to spend money. Imagine what he can do with a team that will give him the leeway and money necessary to build a contender?

I would take Nicol over Mojo and Preki in a heartbeat any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

KiwiRedsFan
09-01-2010, 05:10 PM
Q1: Top 2 in each conf get in. The next 4 spots are based on total pts. So 6 from the West is possible (probable).

Q2: Get Jesus Christ to play as Striker (imagine the thunder when he scores!!!)

Thanks for the info.

That's kind of crap that there isn't 4 from each, that would be fairer to me.

I believe, may the force be with you!

Section 117
09-02-2010, 08:00 AM
Question:

Does anyone know who is under contract for next year and who is a free agent and what the cap space is for TFC?

My friends and I were discussing this last night and no one has the answer.

menefreghista
09-02-2010, 08:13 AM
But what exactly is Preki building? Of all the guys Preki brought in, how many do we really want to keep around?

People say he had to clean up the previous mess.

But it appears the next off-season Preki will be cleaning up his own mess. And the TFC revolving door of players will continue.

Blizzard
09-02-2010, 09:36 AM
But what exactly is Preki building? Of all the guys Preki brought in, how many do we really want to keep around?

People say he had to clean up the previous mess.

But it appears the next off-season Preki will be cleaning up his own mess. And the TFC revolving door of players will continue.

There is a great deal of truth to what you have written.

Blizzard
09-02-2010, 09:38 AM
Thanks for the info.

That's kind of crap that there isn't 4 from each, that would be fairer to me.

I believe, may the force be with you!

Last year it was three from each and two wildcards I believe.

Honestly, I believes the 2-2-4 system to be more fair although without a completely balanced schedule, it's difficult to say for sure. If it were a 4-4, you'd have some teams getting in while clubs with much higher point totals might not.

Suds
09-02-2010, 09:50 AM
But what exactly is Preki building? Of all the guys Preki brought in, how many do we really want to keep around?

People say he had to clean up the previous mess.

But it appears the next off-season Preki will be cleaning up his own mess. And the TFC revolving door of players will continue.


Don't really disagree with what you are saying. But I'm not ready to bust out the hang-man ropes for Preki just yet. I think coaches should be given a few years to implement their program and systems and then evaluate if the team/program is moving forward.