Pre-Match: TFC vs. Real Salt Lake (August 28th, 7:00 PM ET on Sportsnet)

[TFC USA]

We have to get a result here. A loss and I think we're pretty much done for barring a bunch of other teams shitting the bed. We are just too awful on the road to even pick up more than 3 points down the stretch so these home games are crucial to our success.

[pawlukj]

i agree, we have to win if we want to stay in the playoff hunt, not only that but to compensatefor that shite performance last night

[ArmenJBX]

is this a home match?

[Super]

Yes, we definitely need to win this game. We're effectively out of the play-offs as it stands right now, and dropping 3 points at home, or even 2, would be devastating to our chances of making the play-offs. Ugh, I hate to be in this situation - it's all too familiar being a TFC supporter.

[Super]

is this a home match?

Yup!

[ManUtd4ever]

TFC must win ALL of their remaining home matches and earn 1-2 draws on the road the rest of the way to secure a playoff spot, plain and simple...

[ArmenJBX]

40 points will get us in. It's (almost) always been enough.

4 more home games, assume we win 3, tie 1, that's 10 points.

That means we need to get 4 points in 6 games away, which is very doable.

[Heart of Stone]

We have to get a result here. A loss and I think we're pretty much done for barring a bunch of other teams shitting the bed. We are just too awful on the road to even pick up more than 3 points down the stretch so these home games are crucial to our success.

Good thing Preki rested some of the guys in Panama...

[Oldtimer]

40 points will get us in. It's (almost) always been enough.

4 more home games, assume we win 3, tie 1, that's 10 points.

That means we need to get 4 points in 6 games away, which is very doable.

With the expanded league, 40 is no longer good enough.
43 is the magic number (with 42 working in some permutations).

So we need 7 more on the road, or if we win all 4 at home, we need 5 on the road. That pretty well means that we need a road win somewhere, which is not "very doable."

Our biggest chance for a road win will be DC United (the last match of the year... sound familiar?).

[Dave67]

4 more home games, assume we win 3, tie 1, that's 10 points.



I like your optimism. 1 of those home games is against the Crew. We never beat them and they are likely still going to be in the race for the supporters shield. I hope to god we can finally win one against them, but I don't like needing to win one against them to get in.

As for road games we have 4 points in 9 so far. So 4 points in 6 may be beyond these guys. We should have a real good idea where we stand after the Fire game Sept 8th.

[Super]

Our biggest chance for a road win will be DC United (the last match of the year... sound familiar?).

Ugh, that would be horrible. But seriously though, I honestly don't see us winning every last home game. Heck, we've never beaten Columbus before, and RSL is certainly going to be tough to beat on Saturday as well. I don't know, I'm not very optimistic right now. A win on Saturday would make us all feel a whole lot better, though.

[Shakes McQueen]

If we don't make the post-season, making sure Mo gets canned needs to become the SG's top priority. He's the one constant over these years of mediocrity.

- Scott

[gtaguy]

Someone that might know a TFC player please, pretty please, let them know that summer is over.
Mid summer blues are now Sept Rock .. Time to roll boys no more excuses or miss steps. Pricki i got my eye on you. . 43 points total that all we ask. there is 30 in play and we need just a touch better then half these points. we can do it.

[rocker]

With the expanded league, 40 is no longer good enough.
43 is the magic number (with 42 working in some permutations).


Why 43? I suck at math, so you'll have to explain it to me :)

The teams play the same number of games as last year, so why would the number needed to make the playoffs go up?

[James17930]

I wonder what most fans would prefer . . .

A) We hang on just enough to still be in the hunt until the very last game of the season, where we proceed to tank it again like last year; or

B) We lose this game, effectively give up on the league and focus on the CCL.

Hmm.

BTW -- not to get off-topic too much, but this signing that's coming tomorrow -- is that going to be Henry? Is it because Harden kinda shit the bed in Panama (although he hadn't played in so long, would be a bit unfair to crucify him like that after one game). Though we still need cover with defence anyway . . .

[Oldtimer]

Why 43? I suck at math, so you'll have to explain it to me :)

The teams play the same number of games as last year, so why would the number needed to make the playoffs go up?

It's not the number of games that makes the difference, it's the number of teams, and each team's score.

It's the teams under the cutoff that make the difference, not the teams over the cutoff. The score of the teams over the cutoff is only relevant for the Supporter's Shield.

For example, if you have 10 teams and 8 make the playoffs, you only have to beat the score of 2 teams. If you have 16 teams, and 8 make the playoffs, you have to beat 8 teams. Chances are, one of those 8 teams are going to have a pretty good record, just missing out. If there are just 2 teams that miss out, both of them could be quite poor, so you can get in with a lower score, on average.

If you look at Sports Club Stats' calculation:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

You'll see at the bottom of the chart the odds calculation for each type of points. The odds of being in not only depends on the points, but how many wins (because of tie-breakers).

At 40 points, the median chances of getting in are 47.6%. At 41 points, it's 56.3%. At 42 it's 84%, and at 43 it's 94.8%. So 43 could be considered a virtual "sure-in." At 40 points, its less than 50-50, but it's still possible. You could conceivably get in with as little as 36 points if everything played out perfectly, and you are mathematically guaranteed in at 47 points. 43 points is the number to be reasonably certain that you will be in.

In 1996, the bottom playoff team had 41 points, but 36 points would have gotten them in:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/1996/USA/MLS.html

That's the effect of having only 2 teams out (MLS had 10 teams at the time).

There are also strange results with some very low points teams getting in in the early years, due to less wild-card spots and the conference structure.

Sports Club Stats' calculation of the mathematical chances at each points total is mathematically correct and is accurate. Sports Club Stats' calculation of the current odds (currently 25.9%) of getting into the playoffs (at the top of the page) are unreliable until near the end of the season, because they make various assumptions that inadequately take into account significant things like home field advantage. I remember they once had the Jays at a 94% of making the playoffs last season, and we all know how that turned out.

[jloome]

Mista and DeRo both better start THIS game.

[Keystone FC]

Bascially just echoing everyone else that we need a win vs. RSL to keep the playoffs dream alive.
We have a number of things going for us:
1. It's home and we are really tuff at home.
2. RSL just played in a CCL match on Wed in Mexico and have to travel over the US and into Canada...just imagine all of the border crossing procedures they had to do.
3. ^^Plus, they just played one of the most exhausting and wet matches I have ever seen
4. ^^And...they lost from being 2 goals up in the 2nd half. They are pissed which means they will be making mistakes.
5.^^They used their regular starting 11 for the match and not a bunch of academy cadets.

I think these factors work to our advantage, I just hope we can take advantage of them.

[flatpicker]

Crap... I totally forgot this was a home game.

I'd better double check my plans!

[reggie]

barrett and santos are out tomorrow..sounds like barrett will be out a while..good job pricki putting him out on a wet field with 10 men down 3 to 1.
mista better play the whole fucking game tomorrow,knowing pricki he wont.
lets go for that 0 - 0 tie

[bgnewf]

The Goodwill Of Others – TFC v RSL Pre Game

http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/the-goodwill-of-others/ (http://viewfromthesouthstands.com/2010/08/the-goodwill-of-others/)

Some Friday afternoon thoughts on the upcoming home game tomorrow evening against MLS Champions Real Salt Lake. Comments always welcome and appreciated.

[Bars92]

We just need to lose this game and then we can carry on as usual.
Seriously tho I heard Preki rested everyone for this match.

[Petor]

REFEREE: Baldomero Toledo!

I think that after the Panama match MLS decided to put Toledo in the next game we play just to show us that MLS officiating "isn't that bad"!!! :facepalm:

[Oldtimer]

REFEREE: Baldomero Toledo!


Nnnnnnnnooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!! :picard:

[Canada72]

[quote=Petor;1119935]REFEREE: Baldomero Toledo!


What's the over/under on cards 7?

[v00d00daddy]

REFEREE: Baldomero Toledo!



Fuck..that's a bit of bad news.

I can't wait for this game. I love night games at BMO and I hope we turn this little stretch of shittiness around.

I think we'll be okay tonight.

[Baggio2TFC]

I read on Sporsnet ticker and somewhere else (can`t remember where) that Santos is a `game time decicion`. Hopefully it is the right decision!!!

[rviewmirror]

I've had a rough day. Come on you reds, help a supporter out and win this fucking game!

[Hustle]

Cmon You Reds CMON!!!!!!!!!!UUUUUUUU REDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDS!

[ArmenJBX]

No Beckerman, Olave, Gonzales or Grabavoy :D

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

Its simple...LOSE this game ..kiss the playoffs goodbye!

[ArmenJBX]

It's simple....we kill the batman...