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James17930
03-03-2010, 11:44 PM
The common idea floating around was that TFC wouldn't really be able to sign anyone until the CBA was ratified, so that they would know the details, exact figures etc.

And that makes sense.

But, if you look at news around the league, many of the other teams are signing people left, right and centre.

So . . . what's going on? Were all the trialists really that bad? Were they asking too much? Or are Mo and Preki being too picky?

We have one of the smallest rosters in the league -- we need people.

Are we going to have a good, full roster by opening day?

Hitcho
03-03-2010, 11:51 PM
We have some of the most overpaid players in the league, on guaranteed contracts, that we cannot trade (no-one will take them) or release (would still count towards cap hit).

The only person you can pin that on is Mo.

reggie
03-03-2010, 11:57 PM
if garcia is our starting cb for the start of the season,i will boycott the home opener.
i had enough of this bullshit,the roster should be set by now,wtf does he do all winter.

TFC07
03-04-2010, 01:39 AM
Okay now I am worried! :(

I was trying to stay positive in the off-season, but I can't anymore. Fire Mo already! Get some professional management who know a thing or two about soccer.

UltraSuperMegaMo
03-04-2010, 01:40 AM
I think we'll see Joseph sign soon, maybe Saric too. I think Kayizzi is still on their radar. More CBs coming for Charleston, maybe some forwards too. I think we might be okay.

The only way the team is going to get rid of Garcia is tie him to a trade for one of the team's more coveted assets, Cronin, Frei, maybe Wynne or Ibrahim.

oxygenatedbrain
03-04-2010, 02:16 AM
If a player's legs were badly shattered, say, in accident of some kind, it could be qualified as an SEI (Season Ending Injury); there would be cap relief and a replacement signing (or signings, using a completely random, speculative amount of, I dunno, let's say, ooh, $190k base, $198,750 guaranteed compensation as an example) would be permitted, even if said player had, and this is just an arbitrary example, a guaranteed contract...

Stouffville_RPB
03-04-2010, 07:22 AM
TFC is very close (or over) last years cap number. Signing players without knowing how much the cap is going up, if at all, wouldn't make sense.

I don't suspect that TFC will have a full roster when the season kicks off because Mo has proven that he likes to add players throughout the season.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 08:05 AM
Ok, someone show me some damn proof about these guaranteed contracts!


Aside from Barrett, I don't know if I've seen anyone else announced as officially having a guaranteed contract. Robbo signed a new contract before last season, but I don't recall seeing a single article mention any guarantees.

As for being very close to last years cap, how so?
We dropped these players in the offseason:

Fellinga
Serioux
Guevara
Vitti

Freeing up approximately, $755k in cap space.

Add to that... no more Dichio as a player (I'm assuming staff fee's are paid by MLSE not MLS and don't count under the cap) which frees up another $120k.

That's nearly a million in free space to play around with. Plus any allocations that we may still have kicking around.

Oldtimer
03-04-2010, 08:26 AM
Ok, someone show me some damn proof about these guaranteed contracts!


Pretty unlikely given that MLS keeps all contracts secret. We wouldn't even have salary figures except for the Player's Union releasing them.

GOL TV reported that Mo has $600K in allocation money available. Given that they're owned by MLSE, I'd take that figure as definitive.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 08:28 AM
So straying from the guaranteed aspect, that puts us at $875k in freed cap space along with $600k in allocations. Giving us nearly $1.5M to play with.

Realistically, with that kind of cash we shouldn't have any problem signing a few bench players along with a starter or two.

koryo
03-04-2010, 08:31 AM
So straying from the guaranteed aspect, that puts us at $875k in freed cap space along with $600k in allocations. Giving us nearly $1.5M to play with.

Realistically, with that kind of cash we shouldn't have any problem signing a few bench players along with a starter or two.

Could we do a swap with City Transportation Service? They get Garcia and we get a stack of pylons. NEW pylons.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 08:31 AM
Nice! As long as they have those bright 'safety strips' on them. That way they'll blind the opposition LOL

koryo
03-04-2010, 08:37 AM
Nice! As long as they have those bright 'safety strips' on them. That way they'll blind the opposition LOL

Oh yes, bright safety strips and a flashing light that blinks at least every other game...

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 08:47 AM
:rofl: More effective than Garcia!

Nuvinho
03-04-2010, 08:54 AM
I don't think we have $600K in allocation, that figure mentioned was just probably the amount we cut by letting Guevara, Vitti, and Fellinga go.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 08:56 AM
^^ Why wouldn't you factor in Serioux and Dichio in then? I know GolTV isn't the smartest group around, but they can't be that dumb.

koryo
03-04-2010, 09:02 AM
:rofl: More effective than Garcia!

Failing that we could tie a doughnut to the game ball and see what happens...

I'll stop now and let this thread get serious again.

Pachuco
03-04-2010, 09:12 AM
Come on guys, every offseason we have people making excuses for Mo's inability to sign a full roster. This year it's the CBA. Except nobody else in the league seems to have this problem. And Shaughno is absolutely right, we've released quite a bit off our books.

So Stoughvillle, let's say the CBA doesn't go up. Are you saying that we'd have to play this season with the number of players we have right now? If that happened, and Mo really put us in that situation, I would probably take my season's tickets directly to Mo and shove them up his ass.

JonO
03-04-2010, 09:14 AM
You also have to consider that we may have less allocation money this year. Probably looking at something like this:
$ Available = $ realised by releasing players - (Last year's allocation -this year's allocation)

JonO
03-04-2010, 09:17 AM
Come on guys, every offseason we have people making excuses for Mo's inability to sign a full roster.
I don't think you'll find any excuses for Mo this year. People were just speculating.


So Stoughvillle :rofl: Best spelling of Stouffville ever....

Nuvinho
03-04-2010, 09:33 AM
from my calculation based on last year's salaries, not including any adjusted wage increases (which they do give each year), includes only 400K of JDG, and also the 3 GAs), we have 19 players under contract for a total cap hit of $2,164,404

5 players to sign with approx. $135K (assuming the cap is the same at $2.3M) and any allocation money we have left. Don't forget, we will get allocated less money than we did last year, based on where we finished in the league.

Ossington Mental Youth
03-04-2010, 09:45 AM
I think we'll see Joseph sign soon

Who is Joseph?

seankeay
03-04-2010, 09:56 AM
Last year we were well over the cap (could of been over 800k), so even with the loss of Amado, Vitti, Serioux, Dichio we were just under the cap. I figure by like 300-400k, and with the additions of Peterson and Harden we are around 200k left.

This is why were not signing anyone, we have very little cap space and I think were trying to freeze out Robbo to get some more space but its not working.

If I remember correctly Barrett, Gerba, Robbo and Garcia are all on guaranteed contracts.

And joseph is, Nane Joseph

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 09:57 AM
Last year we were well over the cap (could of been over 800k), so even with the loss of Amado, Vitti, Serioux, Dichio we were just under the cap. I figure by like 300-400k, and with the additions of Peterson and Harden we are around 200k left.

This is why were not signing anyone, we have very little cap space and I think were trying to freeze out Robbo to get some more space but its not working.

If I remember correctly Barrett, Gerba, Robbo and Garcia are all on guaranteed contracts.

And joseph is, Nane Joseph


Cheers Sean, I was just trying to compile all that shit in a spreadsheet and then you post this LOL

James17930
03-04-2010, 10:05 AM
Well -- as horrible as it may sound, it seems like the first major goal of the season should be to force Nick Garcia to retire.

He still thinks he can play, obviously, but he can't. No one will take him in a trade. We can't release him because he's guaranteed. So the only way rid of him will be if he retires.

Start making banners.

seankeay
03-04-2010, 10:07 AM
Yea, I have been writing everything down lately to see where exactly we stand on the cap situation and its really scary.

The Garcia/Gerba trade last year was just unacceptable. We were already over the salary cap and knowing that we were running out of allocation money we should of said screw it we cant sacrifice the future for a potential chance at a playoff.

Ossington Mental Youth
03-04-2010, 10:12 AM
thanks Sean, forgot about him

Ossington Mental Youth
03-04-2010, 10:13 AM
so why would we even bring in trialists knowing we cant afford them?
edit: Prob under teh hope that the cap would go up

Nuvinho
03-04-2010, 10:16 AM
Mo is ass - uming that the cap may go up slightly, as well he can get rid of some high priced talent (Garcia and Robbo). I don't think signing Saric and Kayizzi will be that expensive, probably both for the same as what we are paying for Garcia. Now brining in a CB, that is a different story.

Stouffville_RPB
03-04-2010, 10:26 AM
So Stoughvillle, let's say the CBA doesn't go up. Are you saying that we'd have to play this season with the number of players we have right now?

TFC was well over the salary cap last season. Most estimates that were going around had TFC about $1 million over the cap. So with all the cuts that puts us at about last years cap.

If you look at every season so far Mo doesn't come in with a full roster and likes to bring guys in during the season. We probably won't start with 24 players on the roster but it doesn't mean we will be short all season.

MUFC_Niagara
03-04-2010, 10:29 AM
Could we do a swap with City Transportation Service? They get Garcia and we get a stack of pylons. NEW pylons.

Koryo, that's insulting. Don't talk about the pylons that way.

mastermixer
03-04-2010, 10:47 AM
Funny thing, I was watching the TFC TV interview with DeRo back in Toronto yesterday, and they asked him how training went in florida and his response was "where did everyone go?"
My confidence in Mo is taking a nosedive right now.

ManUtd4ever
03-04-2010, 11:03 AM
Mo was obviously convinced that last year's final roster was of a playoff caliber, thus his shortsighted approach to last year's signings. Unfortunately, Mo misjudged the quality of several players and and now finds himself handcuffed with little room to maneuver under the cap. I'm afraid that the current lineup is the one we're stuck with unless:

-The new CBA is ratified and includes a moderate increase in team salary cap

and/or

-Mo can unload the overvalued contracts of the likes of Garcia, Barrett, Gerba, etc.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 11:29 AM
All three of which are apparently on guaranteed contracts...

Edit: and don't expect Barrett to be going anywhere while Preki's around.

ManUtd4ever
03-04-2010, 11:36 AM
I would love nothing more than for Barrett and Gerba to prove me wrong. I really believe that they both have the potential to be 10-15 goal strikers in the MLS but I based my opinion on last season...

gtaguy
03-04-2010, 11:42 AM
I like to be wrong about barret and gerba but something says to me that won't happen. If philadelphia does better then us this year I will freak out.

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 11:43 AM
I hate to say it, but get ready for a freak out. They look pretty scary in preseason so far...

Two solid games in training against Chivas Guadalajara, 2-2 and a 1-0 win.

ManUtd4ever
03-04-2010, 11:48 AM
I hate to say it, but get ready for a freak out. They look pretty scary in preseason so far...

It does seem that way. My only faint hope is that assuming there is no work stoppage, Preki will able to motivate this group to overachieve. Chivas wasn't an overly talented squad last year either. If the players buy into Preki's system, there's a chance TFC can make the playoffs...

spark
03-04-2010, 11:58 AM
The Garcia/Gerba trade last year was just unacceptable. We were already over the salary cap and knowing that we were running out of allocation money we should of said screw it we cant sacrifice the future for a potential chance at a playoff.

Amen. Not to mention the timing of it had knee-jerk and no due-diligence written all over it.

Steve
03-04-2010, 12:23 PM
I used to think Mo had a longer term plan (with collecting good drafts and such) but I'm not longer confident in his ability at all. All I can say is that it looks like either a) he thought we would make the playoffs last year and that would be enough, or b) he was under the impression the Salary cap would go up significantly this year, and wanted to get a jump on things.

Unfortunately, things didn't work out. Not only did the high priced players not turn into a playoff team, but the salary cap appears to be barely moving at all, meaning the only direction our team can go from last year is down (unloading tons of salary).

Personally, I think what we want is to be able to get rid of Garcia and Robbo (I know, he's a good guy, but we need his cap space, and with our DP and promising rookie playing his role, we can't afford his hit). Sadly, Robbo plus Garcia take up over 500k of our cap (that's about a quarter). Add in Jim Brennan's 200k (I know, I love the guy, but he is a part player right now) and we have a lot of money being used unwisely. Now, of course since they're on guaranteed contracts, getting rid of them will be almost impossible.

So, Mo, sink or swim buddy. You've shackled yourself with some damned silly contracts, either find a way to make it work, or take a walk.

TFC247
03-04-2010, 01:09 PM
Last year we were well over the cap (could of been over 800k), so even with the loss of Amado, Vitti, Serioux, Dichio we were just under the cap. I figure by like 300-400k, and with the additions of Peterson and Harden we are around 200k left.

This is why were not signing anyone, we have very little cap space and I think were trying to freeze out Robbo to get some more space but its not working.

Spot on.

It seems last season was a make it or break year as far as playoff was concerned. Not only did we failed at that, now we're broke as well. It's like we've maxed out on credit cards and we're now paying for it. Anymore analogies?



If I remember correctly Barrett, Gerba, Robbo and Garcia are all on guaranteed contracts. Prorbably the worst case scenerio when it comes to new CBA talk.:picard:

seankeay
03-04-2010, 01:39 PM
so why would we even bring in trialists knowing we cant afford them?
edit: Prob under teh hope that the cap would go up

Or hoping we can get them on the cheap... we still have a LITTLE bit of room and if we thought we can have Kayizzi for 70-80k then we can do it.

Also notice how we had a few americans who were in the usl or dropped from the mls in our camp, most likely because they will sign for 30k

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 01:43 PM
^^ For sure, Preki trying to find those diamonds in the rough...

Steve
03-04-2010, 01:49 PM
So, I don't know if this is the right place to put it, but reading this thread made me ask the question "where should TFC spend its money for best effect?" Which of course made me pour over the salary information from last season, compare it to season statistics, and run an analysis on it (yeah, I know, I'm frequently bored).

So, essentially I split up the team into three different player types, Defensive (GK + defenders), midfielders, and forwards. Then I calculated how much each team had spent at each position (DPs were counted by cap hit so as not so skew the data too much) to see if there was a "formula for success". Perhaps not surprisingly to some, the biggest indicator of success if defensive players. How much you spend at midfield or forwards seems to have limited (if any) predictive power. For the stat geeks among us, here are a few numbers:

Defensive: Money spent on defensive players is positively correlated (R sq = 0.35) to how many points you end the season with, as well as negatively correlated (R sq = 0.36) to how many goals against your team has.

Midfield: There is a VERY weak correlation (R Sq = 0.018) between salary spent on midfield players and points, and a non existent (R Sq = 0.0002) correlation between +/- and midfield expenditure.

Forwards: There is again, a weak correlation between amount spend on forwards and points (R sq = 0.0245). What's interesting though, is that there is actually a weak NEGATIVE correlation between amount spent on forwards, and goals scored (0.1096). That means the more you spent on forwards, the less you scored.

If you want to talk about percentage of budget spent, the average budget of teams making the playoffs had 4% more (of their total budget) spent on defense, 2% more spent on forwards, and 6% less spent on midfielders than those who did not make the playoffs. Also, the top 4 spenders (as a percentage of total) on midfielders in the league all finished in the bottom 6 of the table.

So, what does this all mean? Well, probably nothing, but (TFC) if you want me to, I can do this analysis for more seasons, of course, it will cost you ;).

Shaughno
03-04-2010, 01:51 PM
LOL well done Steve. Pretty much how I saw it, just have your data to back it up now LOL

105BallHats
03-07-2010, 11:19 PM
To the boys predicting Carl was going, - hats off.

I know the writing was on the wall but, many were surprised.

Carts
03-07-2010, 11:31 PM
Also, the top 4 spenders (as a percentage of total) on midfielders in the league all finished in the bottom 6 of the table.


And we went out and dropped $9-million on a midfielder (thankfully only $400k goes against the cap)... Yikes...

Steve - excellent post, very interesting to read those stats...

Carts...

King Jeff
03-08-2010, 06:52 AM
So, what does this all mean? Well, probably nothing, but (TFC) if you want me to, I can do this analysis for more seasons, of course, it will cost you ;).

First time I've ever seen R-squared ever used in this context. Interesting stuff to a finance geek. Well done, sir.

James17930
03-08-2010, 10:11 AM
Nick Garcia must retire

Nick Garcia must retire

Nick Garcia must retire

Christ, he's only 30. How's he so slow already?

Oldtimer
03-08-2010, 10:18 AM
Steve, you've proved what I've been saying for some time.

Strong defense is what wins in MLS (and also in CONCACAF as a whole).

It looks like you've taken a page from "Soccernomics.":D Well done!