The route to playoffs - standings and nuances

[Pookie]

With the results tonight, our route to the playoffs is becoming clearer.

With MLS tiebreakers being decided by head to head record first, forget about Seattle. They own the tiebreaker and passing them will be difficult.

New England now holds the final spot and has us by 3 points. DC is also fighting for that last spot, up by a point but with 1 more game played.

Here's the good stuff. We hold both tiebreakers against NE and DC. If we finish tied with one of them for the final spot, we're in.

New England finish their season with games against Columbus x2 and Chicago

DC United have Columbus and KC

We have NY, RSL and San Jose

Still a difficult road but the route is becoming clear. NE is the team we need to focus on.

[Pigfynn]

i think u mean new york,rsl and san jose

[AL-MO]

Isn't it San Jose, Real Salt Lake, New York ?

[Pookie]

oops... my bad... NY is the final game... fixed

[rocker]

finally NE caught up to us in games played... and DC only has two games left... so fewer points available for them than us.
DC really screwed up.. they had so many home games recently but couldn't get wins.

[Musse]

Oh please please TFC win your last 3 games....i beg you!!!!!!!

[Shakes McQueen]

As far as being a bubble team goes, we are actually in a decent position.

We have three very winnable games to finish out our season, and New England have a very difficult road to the end of the season. They could conceivably lose all three of those games.

- Scott

[Super]

It is no doubt going to be a VERY long week until the next game. It's in our hands - and with only 3 games to go that's not a terrible position to be in for us.

[Red CB Toronto]

I am looking forward to my autumn weekend in New York, which could see the Reds secure their first ever playoff berth, what a great time in the Big Apple it could be.

The Road to the playoffs is something the Reds control, so a win against San Jose on Saturday will go a long way in securing their post-season ticket, Jimmy B and the boys need to bring it on.

[Red CB Toronto]

It is no doubt going to be a VERY long week until the next game. It's in our hands - and with only 3 games to go that's not a terrible position to be in for us.

It is not your hands, so you play for the Reds, one of the biggest things I hate in sports is when fans/supporters think they are apart of the team, you can cheer/support the Reds all you want, but at the end of the day we are on the outside looking in. They, the Reds are the ones in control not us.

[Shakes McQueen]

It is not your hands, so you play for the Reds, one of the biggest things I hate in sports is when fans/supporters think they are apart of the team, you can cheer/support the Reds all you want, but at the end of the day we are on the outside looking in. They, the Reds are the ones in control not us.

You hate when fans care about a team so much, that they consider it to be "theirs"?

He wasn't suggesting that anyone other than the players were in control. What a bizarre pet peeve that is.

- Scott

[Super]

You hate when fans care about a team so much, that they consider it to be "theirs"?

He wasn't suggesting that anyone other than the players were in control. What a bizarre pet peeve that is.

- Scott

Exactly. I'm surprised. I'll pass along the message to the thousands of TFC supporters who say "We'll kick San Jose's today" next Saturday. I'm sure CBlake will be there to correct all of us - and make sure we understand that we're not actually playing the game and will have no impact on the game anyway.

:facepalm:

[Red CB Toronto]

Exactly. I'm surprised. I'll pass along the message to the thousands of TFC supporters who say "We'll kick San Jose's today" next Saturday. I'm sure CBlake will be there to correct all of us - and make sure we understand that we're not actually playing the game and will have no impact on the game anyway.

:facepalm:

I overstated it, I guess what I mean it that I hear on the time on sports radio and on message boards, the word "We Won", " How Can we loose to that team and it just gets to me sometimes when it comes down to the fact they the lines get blured, teams are groups of selected people, those that make a squad, which in its own right is acomplishment, and I dnn't like it when it gets watered down by lots of people who think they really are a part of it, in some ways we are , but it in the 11 men on the pitch at any one time who are really the "we", BMO is a great place, we sing, we cheer, we show our passion and display great banners, that is our part which I love being there for.

[Shakes McQueen]

I overstated it, I guess what I mean it that I hear on the time on sports radio and on message boards, the word "We Won", " How Can we loose to that team and it just gets to me sometimes when it comes down to the fact they the lines get blured, teams are groups of selected people, those that make a squad, which in its own right is acomplishment, and I dnn't like it when it gets watered down by lots of people who think they really are a part of it, in some ways we are , but it in the 11 men on the pitch at any one time who are really the "we", BMO is a great place, we sing, we cheer, we show our passion and display great banners, that is our part which I love being there for.

To whom, exactly, are the lines blurred?

Part of the joy of being a sports fan is becoming invested in the results of YOUR team - feeling like you are a part of it. How does that water anything down?

And again - who are these delusional phantom strawpeople you speak of, for which the lines are becoming blurred?

And even in practical terms - "we" could just be referring to Toronto: the city Toronto FC represents.

The reason TFC supporters are so great, is because they consider the team their own. If we were to retain some kind of weird arm's length relationship with our team, where would the passion to sing, and cheer, and stay up late painting banners come from, exactly?

I don't get this idea that, for example, it would somehow diminish or water down the accomplishment of winning the Stanley Cup for the players, because the Pittsburgh Penguins fans took to the streets screaming "We Won!" afterwards.

- Scott

[ensco]

The danger for us is if Columbus starts mailing it in. They may have started last night.

[Pigfynn]

It is not your hands, so you play for the Reds, one of the biggest things I hate in sports is when fans/supporters think they are apart of the team, you can cheer/support the Reds all you want, but at the end of the day we are on the outside looking in. They, the Reds are the ones in control not us.

I couldn't possibly disagree with this statement more

:picard:

[RedRum]

You know I thought we were seriously done, kaput. The way things panned out after last night sure helped. DC is playing like shit, Columbus still has still something to play for and 3 of the 5 games our opponents have left are against them. Chicago has been playing like shit too, but I think Blanco will be back though which may help.

Hell even Colorado could be the one left on the outside looking in. 40 points but 2 road games against teams with a combined 14 - 4 - 9 record at home. Dare I say it, I'm almost optimistic.

[ManUtd4ever]

I mentioned in another thread that the positive spin on this predicament for TFC is that they are in control of their own destiny, even more so after last night's results...3 wins and TFC is in for sure, 2 wins and a draw might be enough as well...

[BoltonTFC]

" How Can we loose to that team

If we are going to nitpick, the word is LOSE for Christ's sake.

[Bobo]

It is no doubt going to be a VERY long week until the next game.

Over the course of the week, I'd been amping myself for BMO this weekend...then I realized we weren't scheduled, LOL. Ugh, another eternity of a week now.

[Pookie]

I mentioned in another thread that the positive spin on this predicament for TFC is that they are in control of their own destiny, even more so after last night's results...3 wins and TFC is in for sure, 2 wins and a draw might be enough as well...

That's not quite correct. The team in the lead controls their own destiny and that is NE. If they win 3, they are in.

[Super]

Our chances are still not great, but I do believe we can do it. At least we're in for a very exciting 3 weeks ahead. Beats being out of the play-offs at this point with nothing to play for except pride and honour.

[mastermixer]

That's not quite correct. The team in the lead controls their own destiny and that is NE. If they win 3, they are in.

Yes, but Colorado, Seattle, Chivas and even Chicago still have to win at least one game to keep ahead of us at the end of the season.

[Torontotonto]

It's going to be a long week waiting for the next match.
Were still hanging in there, as they say...It's not over till it's over.

I think everyone should take it one game at a time and not speculate too much. With that said the only important thing right now is to get the 3 points next weekend and take it from there.

Thanks for the memories Danny, hope to see you on the sidelines.

:scarf::flare::drum:

[twistedchinaman]

Columbus still has still something to play for

Other than the Supporters' Shield, which grants them nothing except for a direct return trip to the CCL group stages for 2010-2011, what else? They have a playoff spot.

[RedRum]

Other than the Supporters' Shield, which grants them nothing except for a direct return trip to the CCL group stages for 2010-2011, what else? They have a playoff spot.

I assume they get some extra cash for finishing top of the table (big deal to the low earners). Coupled with the fact that MLS teams regularly lose to the USL teams and the embarassment that causes, I would say they most certainly have something left to play for.

Not to mention, who wouldn't want to finish ahead of Becks and Landycakes the way the league always gives favoritism to LA.

Let's hope that is their mindset anyway...

[boban]

What's the website that predicts the outcome?

[AL-MO]

Sports Club Stats?

There is a thread in the All Sports section. Let me find it.

EDIT: Here is the link.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html

[AL-MO]

It is not your hands, so you play for the Reds, one of the biggest things I hate in sports is when fans/supporters think they are apart of the team, you can cheer/support the Reds all you want, but at the end of the day we are on the outside looking in. They, the Reds are the ones in control not us.

Of course its not in my hands personally. :rolleyes:

We (along with the other SG's) don't spend hours making banners and other displays just for show. We do it to support the team in every way possible.

So when the players walk out that tunnel, they know that they aren't alone in their efforts to obtain three points, and that we have their backs as they take on their opponent that day.

[boban]

Sports Club Stats?

There is a thread in the All Sports section. Let me find it.

EDIT: Here is the link.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html
Yes that's the one.
Thanks.

[boban]

Interesting to note that save for DC, the teams ahead of us all have a generally upward trend in making the playoffs on that website.
But when we look at our team, TFC, it's all downhill for pretty much the whole season.
The trends don't speak to our favour.

[Hitcho]

It is not your hands, so you play for the Reds, one of the biggest things I hate in sports is when fans/supporters think they are apart of the team, you can cheer/support the Reds all you want, but at the end of the day we are on the outside looking in. They, the Reds are the ones in control not us.

Then how do you explain statements issued by players and managers/coaches along the lines of "the fans are our 12th man"? You hear comments like that all the time in football (not sure about other sports but it may be true of them as well). Ultimately the team and the fans in the stadium are a collective. Bottom line is if you take away all the fans then there is no team. So yeah, I do think it's fair to say "we". And go ask the players who were out mingling with the fans at the return home from Montreal with the trophy if they agree or not.

EDIT - I can kind of see your point when people in Asia (or London!) say "we" about teams like Man Utd, never having been to Old Trafford or done much other than watch the team play on tv or read about them in the papers. Because in that scenario the fans aren't part of the "collective" in the stadium or in and around the city that interacts with the team.

But, even in those cases, if the fans feel passionate enough about something and believe in it that strongly then how is it a bad thing? And in any event it's just common sports parlance now, otherwise you end up talking about everything in the third person which is cumbersome and emotionally detached, and emotional detachment isn't something you find in the average sports fan, almost by definition.

Imagine this in a bar on a Saturday night "Hey I see that Toronto FC, the team whcih I have claimed allegaince to but am not actually part of, even though I live in Toronto and go to the games, managed to win, on their own and with no help or involvement from me, on the pitch at any rate, against the New York Shite Bulls, the team which you have stated to support, although the loss was nothing to do with you personally and in no way should be considered your fault, so you shouldn't take it that hard." That would make for a good night... :rolleyes:

[Hitcho]

I'll continune to hope for a post season spot until it's mathematically impossible. It is MLS afterall, which means anything can happen. We've been done enough favours and now it's time to take advantage of them. If we go into the final game of the season knowing that a win will guarantee us a play off spot, then I'd take that, especially sicne we're playing the basement shite bulls.

It's a headache though, so hoepfully the players are just thinking about winning the next game. if they start doing all this mental hoopla they won't have anything left in the tank for the actual games! :D

[maninb]

with Colorado holding the tie break against us, it would seem NE are the team we much catch...in any case we win all 3 or we're out...it would be BRILLIANT if it came down to the last match....

[AL-MO]

with Colorado holding the tie break against us, it would seem NE are the team we much catch...in any case we win all 3 or we're out...it would be BRILLIANT if it came down to the last match....

And we had a few hundred present in NY. :scarf:

[nascarguy]

I think if we do not win the next game there will be alot of part-timers not going to the last game.

[Hitcho]

with Colorado holding the tie break against us, it would seem NE are the team we much catch...in any case we win all 3 or we're out...it would be BRILLIANT if it came down to the last match....

We could actually get home feasibly with wins against SJ and NY and a draw against RSL. In that scenario we need NER to draw one and lose one in their last three games, but they have three tough games left so it's not inconeviable that will happen (they haven't exactly been on fire recently and they have also played extra games recently to catch up their games in hand, so fatigue may be a factor for them, plus Ralston is out for the season).

But yeah, three wins would give us a much better shot and leave us only needing one loss from NER to make the post season. I just cannot see us winning three games on the bounce though, and especially against RSL who are not a bad team and are likely to be scrapping with us tooth and nail for a wildcard spot.

[Hitcho]

I think if we do not win the next game there will be alot of part-timers not going to the last game.

I fear you may be right, which would suck because it's Danny's official send off match (well, send off from being a player that is).

It's also likely to be the send off to the plastic turf as well - whoop!! :flare:

[AL-MO]

I think if we do not win the next game there will be alot of part-timers not going to the last game.

If you are talking about NY, I think they just won't go at all.

If you are talking about the 17th, they'll probably still be there, maybe just not in full voice.

[Pookie]

Then how do you explain statements issued by players and managers/coaches along the lines of "the fans are our 12th man"? You hear comments like that all the time in football (not sure about other sports but it may be true of them as well). Ultimately the team and the fans in the stadium are a collective. Bottom line is if you take away all the fans then there is no team. So yeah, I do think it's fair to say "we". And go ask the players who were out mingling with the fans at the return home from Montreal with the trophy if they agree or not.


I agree with you but I'll take it to another level.

As a coach, I sure as hell wouldn't tolerate players being negative towards each other during a game. Differences are going to happen through a season but on the field, you work as a team. Work through your issues off the field but everyone needs to pull in the same direction come game time.

So, with that in mind and with the notion that "we" are part of the club in some way... why do "we" tolerate (and some even participate) in heckling our own players during a match? Barrett is a common target but each season has its own target (Cunningham, Ruiz, etc)?

[Hitcho]

^ entirely separate issue and getting way off topic now (!) but totally agree Pookie.

I HATE Iit when some schmuck behind me just makes tedious heckling calls all game like "BRENNAN YOU SUCK!" and that's about it. Mostly it's because he's an ignorant twat and knows nothing about football, but regardless there's no need for that.

And I don't agree that if you pay your money you can turn up and shout what you like either. Get behind the team, or go home. You can vent your frustration after the game, not during it.

[Carts]

As we all know, we NEED 3-wins to have a shot...

With that in mind, I truly hope they go for a win, no matter what the consequences. If we're tied in a match, press for the win! Even if it means giving up a late goal and losing - press for the win...

A draw is basically as bad as a loss right now. I don't want to see conservative play in the 85th minute if the score is 1-1 or 2-2. Go for that win!

I'd rather die fighting than give up and quit...

Carts...

[maninb]

^ I seriously doubt CC is astute enough to do that....In the past he's been more likely to take off a striker and replace him with a extra defender in such situations, and I highly doubt he'll change now...

[Hitcho]

As we all know, we NEED 3-wins to have a shot...

With that in mind, I truly hope they go for a win, no matter what the consequences. If we're tied in a match, press for the win! Even if it means giving up a late goal and losing - press for the win...

A draw is basically as bad as a loss right now. I don't want to see conservative play in the 85th minute if the score is 1-1 or 2-2. Go for that win!

I'd rather die fighting than give up and quit...

Carts...

Well, we could get away with wins over SJ and NY and a draw aganst RSL, as long as NER don't get more than 4 points from their remaining games (see above), but I agree that we should be pushing for 3 wins as hard as possible because you have to think NER will manage to win more than one of their final three matches.



^ I seriously doubt CC is astute enough to do that....In the past he's been more likely to take off a striker and replace him with a extra defender in such situations, and I highly doubt he'll change now...

Haha! Bit harsh mate. CC isn't very astute tactically in my book, but he's presumably (hopefully!) astute enough to do simple mathematics. His subs are usually conservative, I agree, but it's do or die time nwo and even he must see that.

The problem will be what does CC do if we are winning 1-0 with 20 mins to go - make a defensive sub or leave the formation the same in the hopes of nicking a second goal on the break? :(

[Carts]

The problem will be what does CC do if we are winning 1-0 with 20 mins to go - make a defensive sub or leave the formation the same in the hopes of nicking a second goal on the break? :(

Don't you mean "...so we can try and score an extra time goal after giving up the game-tying-goal in the 89th minute..."...? LOL

I love TFC, but I have zero, make that LESS THAN ZERO CONFIDENCE we can hold a 1-goal lead in a big game - and just a little confidence we can hold a 2-goal lead...

Carts...

[Hitcho]

^ haha, true enough. Which means the only way to be safe is to make sure we're leading every game at least 7-0 going into the final 20 minutes... :D

[Darlofletch]

And we had a few hundred present in NY. :scarf:

Just got confirmation for time off work, so I'll be there. :hump: Would love for there to be something on the line.

[InDa_110]

I really hope New England doesn't get any points against Chicago. I say this because I don't believe Columbus wants to beat New England, here's why: If TFC gets the last playoff spot, TFC play Columbus in the first round, right? Does Columbus really want to play TFC in their first ever playoff game at BMO? Secondly does Columbus really want TFC fans coming by the thousands for the playoff game there?

Hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't doubt if columbus "rests" their starters against new England

[Pookie]

Secondly does Columbus really want TFC fans coming by the thousands for the playoff game there?


... you mean does the Columbus FO really want to sell an extra 2000 tickets? I'm gonna bet, yes, they do.

[InDa_110]

... you mean does the Columbus FO really want to sell an extra 2000 tickets? I'm gonna bet, yes, they do.


That's a good point. I'd also have to ask;

How's the attendance been there lately?

What was there average playoff attendance last year?

If playing New England is easier than playing TFC (with BMO game), does the extra even 3,000 tickets to the first round compensate for possibility of missing conference finals?

Just wondering. But don't get me wrong I would love a home and home against columbus, I'd book my trip the day the game was confirmed.

[Pookie]

That's a good point. I'd also have to ask;

How's the attendance been there lately?

What was there average playoff attendance last year?

2009 Attendance is listed here:

http://web.mlsnet.com/schedule/scoreboard/season.jsp?team=t102

Their best draw in the playoffs last year was vs Chicago at 14,688.



If playing New England is easier than playing TFC (with BMO game), does the extra even 3,000 tickets to the first round compensate for possibility of missing conference finals?

From a Crew perspective, TFC has never beat them. I think they'd be open to the idea of facing them in the playoffs.

[InDa_110]

From a Crew perspective, TFC has never beat them. I think they'd be open to the idea of facing them in the playoffs.[/quote]


Again you make very good and well researched points.

Part of me just believes that record aside, if TFC storms into the playoffs with a come from two spots out, three game winning streak, as an opposing coach I wouldn't want my players going up against a team on that kind of roll, with that kind of confidence, which I'm sure you must know is HUGE! in this sport. Add BMO to those circumstances, I really believe they'd rather play New England. We shall see!

Btw: Would the first leg of the playoffs be on halloween? Because that my friend would be fucken sick, TFC's first playoff game at home on halloween might make an Oakland raiders game look like choir practice at church.

[ballerz]

TFC currently sits in 10th place with 35 points, one back of DC United and three back of NE. TFC and NE have one game in hand over DC United. We have the tie breakers over both NE and DC.

Colorado sits in 7th place with 40 points. Although TFC can theoretically catch them, let's focus on just getting into the top 8, occupied by NE.

We can set our target solely on NE. We both have three games left. NE plays at home to Columbus, at home to Chicago, and away to Columbus. We need to make up 3 points on them. The only way we can make up 3 points on NE is to have NE score 6 points or worse. This is on the assumption that we run the table.

Base on the assumption we are running the table, DC or RSL (sitting in 12th) cannot catch us for 8th place.

[DOMIN8R]

Excuse my ignorance.

What does "we run the table" mean?

[bimmer]

Excuse my ignorance.

What does "we run the table" mean?

Win all of our remaining games.

[mastermixer]

Excuse my ignorance.

What does "we run the table" mean?

I think it means take all three remaining games.

[jloome]

I think it means take all three remaining games.

Comes from pool. Means to finish out without missing a ball, but applies well to football because leagues are organized into tables. So as stated, it means we run our way through the remainder of the games with all wins.

[ensco]

^ I prefer this interpretation of "running the tables": more interesting I think

http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090714/LOCAL/307149986

[jloome]

^ I prefer this interpretation of "running the tables": more interesting I think

http://www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090714/LOCAL/307149986

Please, Eugene, I'm already in the "we've probably missed the playoffs again" playoff funk. Showing me waiters with more fight than half our first team is both amusing and bleak.

[Hitcho]

I really hope New England doesn't get any points against Chicago. I say this because I don't believe Columbus wants to beat New England, here's why: If TFC gets the last playoff spot, TFC play Columbus in the first round, right? Does Columbus really want to play TFC in their first ever playoff game at BMO? Secondly does Columbus really want TFC fans coming by the thousands for the playoff game there?

Hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't doubt if columbus "rests" their starters against new England

Aside from the points made above, it's just not a good idea to deliberately throw a game, which is what you are basically suggesting KK might do. It's demoralising, unprofessional and can start off a losing funk. No pro sports player would seriously consider this. And what do they stand to gain? NER would be a harder game than TFC for the KK. Plus the FO could count on $$$ from ticket sales and beer prices, as well as a decent atmosphere for a post season game for once!

[twistedchinaman]

After Tonight:

Cowlumpass 46
Los Angeles 44
Houston 44
Shitcago 41
Seattle 41
Chivas 41
Colorado 40
New England 38
==============
DCU 36 - holds tiebreaker, won both games vs. FCD
Dallas 36
TFC 35
RSL 34
KC 32
San Jose 28
Red Craps 18

[twistedchinaman]

After Tonight:

CLB 46
LAG 44
HOU 44
CHI 41
SEA 41
CHV 41
COL 40
NER 38
==============
DCU 36 - holds tiebreaker, won both games vs. FCD
FCD 36
TFC 35
RSL 34
KCW 32
SJE 28
NYR 18


And if we take the above, and do a rather okay prediction, we could get:

CLB 46 + DWW = 53 (E1)
HOU 44 + WW = 50 (W1)
CHV 41 + WWDL = 48 (W2)
SEA 41 + DW = 45 (W3)
LAG 44 + LD = 45 (W4)
TFC 35 + WWW = 44 (E2)
CHI 41 + DD = 43 (E3)
COL 40 + LL = 40 // RSL 34 + WLW = 40 // NER 38 + DDL = 40 (E4) - this one will likely go to tiebreaks.
==============
FCD 36 + WL = 39
DCU 36 + LD = 37
KCW 32 + LDD = 34
SJE 28 + LLD = 29
NYR 18 + LL = 18

Round one would then look as follows:

Cowlumpass vs. Colorado/RSL/New England
TFC vs. Shitcago -- second leg @ BMO. :)
Houston vs. LA
Chivas vs. Seattle

[Oldtimer]

And if we take the above, and do a rather okay prediction, we could get:

CLB 46 + DWW = 53 (E1)
HOU 44 + WW = 50 (W1)
CHV 41 + WWDL = 48 (W2)
SEA 41 + DW = 45 (W3)
LAG 44 + LD = 45 (W4)
TFC 35 + WWW = 44 (E2)
CHI 41 + DD = 43 (E3)
COL 40 + LL = 40 // RSL 34 + WLW = 40 // NER 38 + DDL = 40 (E4) - this one will likely go to tiebreaks.
==============
FCD 36 + WL = 39
DCU 36 + LD = 37
KCW 32 + LDD = 34
SJE 28 + LLD = 29
NYR 18 + LL = 18


In that scenario, TFC would only need two wins and a tie to get in.

[twistedchinaman]

In that scenario, TFC would only need two wins and a tie to get in.

True, but again -- let's not leave it to chance. Keep it a three wins to get in -- ties leave way too much to chance.

[ensco]

Why stop at 3 games?

"No more losses in the 21st century", that's my slogan.

[twistedchinaman]

Why stop at 3 games?

"No more losses in the 21st century", that's my slogan.

For now, how's about -- "No more losses for the remainder of the year of 2009 C.E."?

[Hitcho]

For now, let's just worry about beating SJ... :D

[ballerz]

In that scenario, TFC would only need two wins and a tie to get in.

The above scenarios calls for really bad results for all our opponents. It won't happen.

To simplify, TFC needs 3 wins AND New England to get a maximum of only 6 points - this will result in a tie for 8th and we hold the tie-break.

If TFC gets less than 8 points, the different combination of results by NE, DC, Colorado, Dallas, and RSL will surely result in TFC finishing outside the 8th spot.

[Yohan]

TFC pretty much has only 8th spot to go after right now. Top 7 spots are more or less locked.

Anything can happen, but it'll take a lot of luck to get into playoffs at this moment. Though win next 2 games, and anything could happen

RSL will be playing NY at Rio Tinto stadium on Wed. They'll probably pick up 3 pts, but they will also be tired for next sat's game...

[ensco]

What a race to the bottom. DC, NE and TFC all spitting the bit. None of them deserve it.

Two wins and TFC are probably still in. But what a wasted opportunity.

Watch for Dallas. They're now ahead of us, based on tiebreaker.

[TFC_Chris]

I've tried to compile an overview of each team's path to the playoffs.


East # 2 - Chicago Fire - 41 PTS - 28 GP (+4 GD) - @ NE, vs CHV
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with win in either game
OR a loss/draw by Toronto FC and DC United in either of their games.

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with losses in both games AND two wins by either Toronto FC or DC United.


Wild Card # 2 - Seattle Sounders - 41 PTS - 28 GP (+7 GD) - @ KC, vs DAL
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with win or draw in either game
OR a loss/draw by Toronto FC, DC United, and FC Dallas in either of their games. (They hold H2H tiebreakers against TFC and DCU)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with losses in both games AND two wins by either Toronto FC, DC United, or Dallas or three wins by Real Salt Lake.


Wild Card # 3 - Colorado Rapids - 40 PTS - 28 GP (+8 GD) - @ DAL, @ RSL
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with win in either game
OR a loss/draw by Toronto FC, DC United, and FC Dallas in either of their games. (They hold H2H tiebreaker against TFC and have a better GD than DCU; First match with FC Dallas was a draw)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with losses in both games AND two wins by either Toronto FC, DC United, or Dallas or three wins by Real Salt Lake
OR a loss and a draw in their games AND two wins by either Toronto FC, DC United, or Dallas or three wins by Real Salt Lake.


Wild Card # 4 - New England Revolution - 38 PTS - 28 GP (-5 GD) - vs CHI, @ CLB
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with wins in both games
OR a loss/draw by Toronto FC, DC United, FC Dallas, Real Salt Lake, and Kansas City Wizards in any of their games coupled with one NER win in the last two games. (They hold H2H tiebreaker against DCU)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with losses in both games AND two wins by either Toronto FC, DC United, or Dallas or three wins by Real Salt Lake
OR a loss and a draw in their games AND two wins DC United, a win and a draw for Toronto FC or Dallas, or two wins and a draw by Real Salt Lake
OR a win and a draw in their games AND two wins by Toronto FC or Dallas, or two wins and a draw by Real Salt Lake.


Toronto FC - 36 PTS - 28 GP (-5 GD) - vs RSL, @ NYRB
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with:
Two Wins AND loss/draw by New England Revolution, FC Dallas, and Real Salt Lake in any games
OR one win & one draw AND one win & one loss by New England Revolution and FC Dallas, one win & two draws by Real Salt Lake (They hold H2H tiebreaker against NER and DCU)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with a loss in either game AND a draw by New England Revolution, a win by FC Dallas, or a win & draw by DC United
OR two wins by New England Revolution
OR a win and a draw in their games AND two wins by DC United or Real Salt Lake, a win and a draw by FC Dallas, or a win by New England Revolution.


DC United - 36 PTS - 28 GP (-2 GD) - vs CLB, @ KC
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with:
Two Wins AND loss/draw by New England Revolution, FC Dallas, Toronto FC, and Real Salt Lake in any games
OR one win & one draw AND one win & one loss by Toronto FC and FC Dallas, one win & one draw (or 3 draws) by Real Salt Lake, and two draws by New England Revolution.

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with a loss in either game AND a draw by New England Revolution, a win and a draw by Toronto FC or FC Dallas, or a win & two draws by Real Salt Lake
Revolution.


FC Dallas - 36 PTS - 28 GP (+3 GD) - vs COL, @ SEA
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with:
Two Wins AND loss/draw by New England Revolution, DC United, Toronto FC, and Real Salt Lake in any games
OR one win & one draw AND one win & one draw by Toronto FC, one win & two draws by Real Salt Lake, and a win and a loss by New England Revolution and DC United. (They hold H2H tiebreaker against TFC)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with a loss in either game AND a draw by New England Revolution, a win and a draw by Toronto FC, a win by DC United, or a win & two draws by Real Salt Lake.


Real Salt Lake - 34 PTS - 27 GP (+4 GD) - vs NYRB, @ TFC, vs COL
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with:
Three wins AND loss/draw by New England Revolution, FC Dallas, Toronto FC, and DC United in any games
OR two wins & one draw AND one win & one loss by Toronto FC and FC Dallas, one win & one draw (or 3 draws) by Real Salt Lake, and two draws by New England Revolution. (They hold a higher GD than DCU, TFC, NER, and FCD)

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with a loss in any game AND a win by New England Revolution, two wins Toronto FC, FC Dallas, or DC United.


Kansas City Wizards - 32 PTS - 28 GP (-8 GD) - vs SEA, vs DCU
Will Clinch Playoff Spot with:
Two wins AND two losses by New England Revolution, and a draw and loss by FC Dallas, Toronto FC, and DC United in both games, and only one win by Real Salt Lake.

Will be Eliminated from Playoffs with a draw in any game.

[Lennon]

All these teams dropping points and keeping us alive is like torture ... a slow and painful death

I wish I could be more optimistic

[MUFC_Niagara]

All these teams dropping points and keeping us alive is like torture ... a slow and painful death

I wish I could be more optimistic

Agreed, I am sitting here saying to myself that all we need to do is beat 2 teams we SHOULD beat and will likely be in. However, winning the games seems less likely than before. But i'll still support them to the end! :scarf:

[Lennon]

Kind of funny that most of the fans, media, and even players seem to think that we have no shot at the playoffs after the SJ game but according to this (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html) site if we win our next to games we have a 96.2% chance of getting in ...

[TFC_Chris]

Kind of funny that most of the fans, media, and even players seem to think that we have no shot at the playoffs after the SJ game but according to this (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/TorontoFC.html) site if we win our next to games we have a 96.2% chance of getting in ...

Because if we win our last two games the only way we get knocked out is if:
A. New England wins their last two games (vs Chicago, @ Columbus)
B. FC Dallas wins their last two games (vs Colorado, @ Seattle)

I would say in that case, a 96.2% chance is inadequate for how hard the schedules for New England and Dallas are to end the season.

[rocker]

I don't know if you guys watched games closely at the end of last year.

But NYRB almost didn't make the playoffs... DC could have made it in and knock NY out on the last game of the season. I watched DC's game. They played well, but hit post after post and lost, allowing NYRB to sneak into the playoffs and then go to the MLS Cup final. As well, in the playoffs, RSL also had DC's bad luck, hitting post and post, and could have gone further.

I think we're used to Euro and also other NA leagues, where if you aren't in the playoffs by now, you're out. Not in MLS.

[bimmer]

OCAjmuA1HDk

[TFC07]

OCAjmuA1HDk

Lol...when I first heard this song, I thought it was a girl who singing it. :facepalm:

But yeah, I agree that we still have a chance of making it to the playoffs despite our poor play.

[Redpunkfiddle]

Finally, after more than 6 months and 28 league games, and tons of inaccurate use, we can finally say it for real now: must win game.

[Lennon]

Yeaaaaaaaa!!! We're IN as of this moment ... a Dallas loss/draw tonight and it's all up to us next week in New Joisey ...

[prizby]

seems like a 8 teams are fighting for the last 3 or 4 playoff spots

- Chicago
- Seattle
- Colorado
- Toronto FC
- New England
- DC United
- Real Salt Lake
- FC Dallas

question is, which of these 7 teams surrounding us, do we hold tie-breakers over???

[rocker]

we win the tiebreaker on DC and NE.. we wouldn't against RSL prob (tied pts, but they have better overall goal diff). We don't have the tiebreaker against Dallas, Seattle or chicago.

[Chevy]

I think Chicago is officially in after their tie against NE.

If Dallas loses or ties tonight and we win next week - we're in.

[Lennon]

1-0 Dallas .. god damn it I was just going to bet on them

[Azzurri86]

so if there is a 4 way tie between Toronto, New England, Dallas and DC we would get in cuz we have 9 points in games against those.. DC and New England have 8 points while Dallas has 7...

[TFC Cityboy]

God it's confusing...there's a lot to be said for plain old Goal difference.

One thing I noticed in next weekend's fixtures is that unlike other leagues the games do not all kick off at the same time, thus giving an advantage to those kicking off later or Sunday.
I know there are 3 time zones, but surely MLS should see this as unfair.
Revs even play the next day!

[troy1982]

God it's confusing...there's a lot to be said for plain old Goal difference.

One thing I noticed in next weekend's fixtures is that unlike other leagues the games do not all kick off at the same time, thus giving an advantage to those kicking off later or Sunday.
I know there are 3 time zones, but surely MLS should see this as unfair.
Revs even play the next day!

Correction:
There are 4 timezones in which MLS plays in.
The question you should be asking is do other North American leagues play there final games at the same times. We are not in Europe and shouldn't look to them all the time.

[TFC Cityboy]

I think you'll find it's 3 timezones, but I do take your point re N A rather than Europe. It would just be fairer for all.

[Lennon]

Ughhh fucking Dallas is unstoppable ... 2-0 now ... :/

[ForestGlade]

So with Dallas up 2-0 on Colorado, I assume we have to beat the Shite Bulls and hope Seattle holds Dallas to a draw or loss?

[rocker]

for their sake, Seattle better hold dallas to a draw or a loss -- or Seattle might not make the playoffs.

even colorado's potential loss to Dallas tonight puts Colorado in a dangerous situation in their final game.. Colorado has to go to RSL for their final game.

[Lennon]

Yep ...

2-1!

Here's a link .. good feed ..

http://atdhe.net/watch-major-league-soccer.php?i=781035&t=FC%20Dallas%20vs%20Colorado%20Rapids

[rocker]

if Colorado loses tonight, and then RSL beats Colorado, both teams would be even on points and even head to head. Then it turns to overall goal diff in the league.... RSL would go through if they could beat Colorado by more than 1 goal. (this is if they are the only bunch tied on 40).

[King Jeff]

Dallas just beat Colorado 2-1.

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

Here it is....

A TFC WIN OVER SHITEBULLS

PLUS

SEATTLE WIN/TIE OVER DALLAS OR A ..RSL WIN/TIE OVER THE RAPIDS...

TFC VS COLUMBUS FIRST ROUND!! :)


correct me if im wrong.....:)

[King Jeff]

Here it is....

A TFC WIN OVER SHITEBULLS

PLUS

SEATTLE WIN/TIE OVER DALLAS OR A ..RSL WIN/TIE OVER THE RAPIDS...

TFC VS COLUMBUS FIRST ROUND!! :)


correct me if im wrong.....:)

Wouldn't we be the Eastern Conference #3? That means we'd play Chicago. Maybe.

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

Wouldn't we be the Eastern Conference #3? That means we'd play Chicago. Maybe.

we would be the last wild card spot.....would mean 1st vs 8 no??

[colman1860]

Are there any scenerios where we get in with a tie?

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

our game is the first of the LOT next week........the other games that matter will follow!

a win in NY...is gona make for a heel of a ride watching...SEA vs DAL and RSL vs COL 9:00pm and 10:30

[ensco]

Are there any scenerios where we get in with a tie?

No.

Dallas and Seattle won. So Seattle are in.

TFC cannot get in with a tie, even if all of Dallas, NE, DC and Colorado lose, because they in that scenario TFC would be tied for 8th with Colorado, but Colorado would get through on tiebreaker, because of that innocuous last minute goal in September that made the score 3-2 for TFC against Colorado.

TFC are in with a win, unless both Dallas and Colorado win also next week. Hard to gauge this: all three teams are on the road playing teams that have nothing to play for.

[Azzurri86]

we would play chicago.. we would be East #3

[flatpicker]

Here it is....

A TFC WIN OVER SHITEBULLS

PLUS

SEATTLE WIN/TIE OVER DALLAS OR A ..RSL WIN/TIE OVER THE RAPIDS...

TFC VS COLUMBUS FIRST ROUND!! :)


correct me if im wrong.....:)




TFC are in with a win, unless both Dallas and Colorado win also next week. Hard to gauge this: all three teams are on the road playing teams that have nothing to play for.


I've had a few drinks here, so pardon me if I'm asking a silly question.
But don't we need both of those results to happen?...
"SEATTLE WIN/TIE OVER DALLAS PLUS..RSL WIN/TIE OVER THE RAPIDS"

Sorry, but my ability to work out puzzles is minimal right now.

[bimmer]

I've had a few drinks here, so pardon me if I'm asking a silly question.
But don't we need both of those results to happen?...
"SEATTLE WIN/TIE OVER DALLAS PLUS..RSL WIN/TIE OVER THE RAPIDS"
?



Nope. There are six teams that have already clinched the playoffs so there are two remaining spots.

As of now, Colorado and Dallas(?) hold those spots, Colorado with 40 points and Dallas with 39 points and advantage on tiebreakers (I think). So assuming we win, we'd be at 42 points, enough to knock either of those teams out of their playoff spots if they were to lose/draw (since they would be at 41 and 40 points respectively, with draws).

Scenario 1:
1) We win (42 points)
2) Colorado Wins (43 points)
3) Dallas loses/draws (39/40 points)
= We take Dallas' spot/8th seed. Doesn't matter if NE/DC wins because we win on tiebreakers

Scenario 2:
1) We win (42 points)
2) Dallas Wins (42 points with adv. tiebreaker)
3) Colorado loses/draws (40/41 points)
= We take Colorado's spot, Dallas moves up to 7th, we take 8th seed

Scenario 3:
1) We win (42 points)
2) Dallas loses/draws (39/40 points)
3) Colorado loses/draws (40/41 points)
= We take 7th seed and depending on other results, one of Colorado/RSL/NE/DC make it in as 8th seed

Scenario 4:
1) We win (42 points)
2) Dallas wins (42 points with adv. tiebreaker)
3) Colorado wins (43 points)
= We're out, Dallas & Colorado into playoffs

This is my take on it... please someone correct me if I'm wrong. I'm a bit confused myself :noidea:

[SweetOwnGoal]

I've done the math over at the 24th Minute:

http://www.24thminute.com/2009/10/not-as-complicated-as-it-seems-mls.html

But, basically, yes a TFC win + Dallas not getting the full 3 against Seattle clinches it. A TFC win and Colorado not getting the full three likely clinches it, but not 100% (we could still end up in a multiple team tie with Dallas involved, which is the only way NE or DCU can pass us when even on points).

[Stryker]

So long as Colorado and Dallas don't both take 3 points we will get a spot.
As others have suggested though, they're both playing teams with nothing to play for so I wouldn't be surprised if they did both win. RSL might roll over to the Rapids seeing as we eliminated them today.

Anyway you look at it we have nobody to blame but ourselves if we don't make the playoffs. We've been given a ton of favorable outcomes the last few weeks and pissed golden opprotunities to jump out in front away.
As much as I love this team a part of me can't help but feel we don't deserve a playoff spot.

[SPARTACUS]

Ummmmmm 5 spots have been determined not 6.
Columbus
LA
Houston
Chivas
Seattle
Are ALL in................
3 spots remain. Right now Chicago 42, Colorado 40 and Dallas 39 have them if playoffs started today. BUT THEY DON'T. Yes Dallas is tied with TFC but goal difference would give them the last spot TODAY.
All TFC has to do is win, and let the rest take its course. A little "lady luck" from other matches and TFC has a huge advantage of playing first and watching the outcome of others. TFC can put all the pressure on every one else. So just win and I am confident the reds will go marching in...Just win.:canada:

[flatpicker]

Fack!
I can hardly take all this!
It is going to be a nerve-racking day next weekend!

[Whoop]

Just win next weekend and we'll worry about everything else later.

[Bars92]

Its simple. We win and as long as FCD and Rapids don't both win, we're in.

[Blizzard]

Its simple. We win and as long as FCD and Rapids don't both win, we're in.

In a nutshell!

:scarf:

[Broadview]

If we win we should be in. It says here that tiebreak goes by head to head with all teams involved, not goal differential:

http://web.mlsnet.com/about/league.jsp?section=regulations&content=playoffs

They also have us holding down the 8th spot among the other tied teams:

http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/

Just win baby!

[drek]

If we win we should be in. It says here that tiebreak goes by head to head with all teams involved, not goal differential:

http://web.mlsnet.com/about/league.jsp?section=regulations&content=playoffs

They also have us holding down the 8th spot among the other tied teams:

http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/

Just win baby!

According to that yeah, our w/l puts us above DC & tied with NE. Then, The goal differential puts us over NE.

[Blizzard]

If we win we should be in. It says here that tiebreak goes by head to head with all teams involved, not goal differential:

http://web.mlsnet.com/about/league.jsp?section=regulations&content=playoffs

They also have us holding down the 8th spot among the other tied teams:

http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/

Just win baby!

But if Dallas wins and NE and/or DCU don't, the mini-table changes again and then Dallas moves ahead of us. They had four of a possible six points us against us. We had one.

So, yes, we have to win but we still need a little help in Dallas not winning and/or Colorado not winning. If either of them don't win and we do, then we're in.

It's not all in our hands but the odds are favourable as both RSL and Seattle have been great at home this year with only one and two losses respectively.

[bimmer]

8) The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.


Does this mean that if Dallas, Toronto and New England/DC were to be tied after next week Toronto would be at the top? But if only Dallas and Toronto are tied Dallas goes through?

[Broadview]

But if Dallas wins and NE and/or DCU don't, the mini-table changes again and then Dallas moves ahead of us. They had four of a possible six points us against us. We had one.

So, yes, we have to win but we still need a little help in Dallas not winning and/or Colorado not winning. If either of them don't win and we do, then we're in.

It's not all in our hands but the odds are favourable as both RSL and Seattle have been great at home this year with only one and two losses respectively.

Oh yeah, for some reason I had that loss to Dallas as a win for us.

You just stole some of my sleep!

[Blizzard]

Oh yeah, for some reason I had that loss to Dallas as a win for us.

You just stole some of my sleep!

Our dreams will be haunted by some of the disappointing results of the season past.

Best to try not think about it. Last week. Ugh.

[Lennon]

It's funny, the mood here is a lot more positive after our fortunate win ...
A lot of people are going to be pissed off if we fail to make it to the playoffs now:toetap05:

[ensco]

What a braincramp!

We all have it wrong above. Yes we get in if we win and one of Dallas or Colorado fail to win, but we can get in if they both do win, so long as other things happen. There are more combos than just us vs Dallas and Colorado.

The head to head will be calculated based on the head-to-head records of all teams tied. There are 4 teams currently tied for 8th. This could really help us out. Below these standings are the tiebreak rules. They're pretty simple.

http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/index.jsp?standings=playoff

Here are the relevant point-per-game point totals.


TFC (0.5) v Dallas (2.0)
TFC (1.5) v Colorado (1.5)
TFC (2.0) v DC (0.5)
TFC (2.0) v NE (0.5)

Colorado (1.33) v Dallas (1.33)
Colorado (1.5) v DC (1.5)
Colorado (1.0) v NE (1.0)

Dallas (0.5) v DC (2.0)
Dallas (1.0) v NE (1.0)

DC (0.5) v NE (2.0)

In a 5 way tie of these teams, the tiebreak would be

TFC 6.0
Colorado 5.33
Dallas 4.83
DC 4.5
NE 4.5

(note that a 5 way cannot occur, unless as the residual from a 6 way tie at 40 points, ie RSL beats Colorado but all other teams tie, but that scenario would give anyone a migraine).

This is why the league website has us 8th this morning.

If only DC win, here is the 4 way tiebreak.

Colorado 4.33
TFC 4.0
Dallas 4.0
DC 4.0

If only NE win, the 4 way is

TFC 4.5
Colorado 4.33
Dallas 4.33
NE 2.5

This is not a complete analysis. There could be many different tiebreak combinations. Also, if the tiebreak arises from ties or losses next weekend, and RSL jump into the mix...I give up!

Bottom line, I think we want NE to be in the tiebreak in any scenario!

[ArmenJBX]

We'd have to be the most unlucky team on the planet to not have one of those possibilities go our way. Bottom line is simply this...beat New York and let the Football God's do the rest. :D

[Gwando]

Ensco, I'm not sure what you mean when you say, "This is why the league website has us 8th this morning". What does Colorado have to do with the four teams tied at 39? And the way I work out the mini-table, FC Dallas has the better record of the four. Should they not be in the eighth spot?

[TFC Cityboy]

Couldn't get to sleep for ever last night pondering all the options. My brain hurts.

[ensco]

Ensco, I'm not sure what you mean when you say, "This is why the league website has us 8th this morning". What does Colorado have to do with the four teams tied at 39? And the way I work out the mini-table, FC Dallas has the better record of the four. Should they not be in the eighth spot?

Not sure we agree on that calc. Here is what I think is the mini table of the four

TFC 4.5
Dallas 3.5
NE 3.5
DC 3.0

[London]

is it saturday yet???

[Gwando]

Okay, well here is what I have (and, for me, I find MLS Tie-breaking rules anything but 'simple'):
Toronto FC - D 1-1 FC Dallas, L 2-3 FC Dallas, D 3-3 DC United, W 2-0 DC United, W 3-1 New England, D 1-1 New England TOTAL POINTS = 9
New England - L 1-3 Toronto FC, D 1-1 Toronto FC, W 2-1 FC Dallas, L 0-1 FC Dallas, D 1-1 DC United, W 2-1 DC United TOTAL POINTS = 7
DC United - D 3-3 Toronto FC, L 2-3 Toronto FC, D 1-1 New England, L 1-2 New England, L 1-2 FC Dallas, D 2-2 FC Dallas TOTAL POINTS = 3
FC Dallas - D 1-1 Toronto FC, W 3-2 Toronto FC, L 1-2 New England, W 1-0 New England, W 2-1 DC United, D 2-2 DC United TOTAL POINTS = 11

What have I got wrong?

[TFC Cityboy]

If we make it to the playoffs, is it a home and away 2 game tie or a one-off match?

[Gwando]

PLAYOFF FORMAT: Conference Semifinal series are conducted in a home-and-home, aggregate-goal format. The lower seeded team in the Conference Semifinal hosts the first game. The winners of those four series advance to single-game Conference Championships that will determine the MLS Cup Finalists.

[TFC Cityboy]

^ CHEERS. That's what I'd hoped as we'd be the lower seeded team.

I guess the match-ups are dependent on how many from each conference make it in.

[ensco]

Okay, well here is what I have (and, for me, I find MLS Tie-breaking rules anything but 'simple'):
Toronto FC - D 1-1 FC Dallas, L 2-3 FC Dallas, D 3-3 DC United, W 2-0 DC United, W 3-1 New England, D 1-1 New England TOTAL POINTS = 9
New England - L 1-3 Toronto FC, D 1-1 Toronto FC, W 2-1 FC Dallas, L 0-1 FC Dallas, D 1-1 DC United, W 2-1 DC United TOTAL POINTS = 7
DC United - D 3-3 Toronto FC, L 2-3 Toronto FC, D 1-1 New England, L 1-2 New England, L 1-2 FC Dallas, D 2-2 FC Dallas TOTAL POINTS = 3
FC Dallas - D 1-1 Toronto FC, W 3-2 Toronto FC, L 1-2 New England, W 1-0 New England, W 2-1 DC United, D 2-2 DC United TOTAL POINTS = 11

What have I got wrong?

I think you've got a DC-Dallas game backwards. Perhaps the one that finished 2-1 for DC on May 2?

[Gwando]

You are correct sir, thanks. Sloppy record keeping on my part. Thus: TFC 9 pts advances to 8th spot. In next mini-table New England 7pts, DC United 5 pts, FC Dallas 4 pts, New England advancing to 9th and then DC United, with better H2H against FC Dallas, in 10th. Thanks.

[TFC Cityboy]

f##k...this makes algebra seem simple.

[Yohan]

Dallas is on a 4 game winning streak... Crazy

[bignickel]

Sorry, just woke up so this may be a stupid question...
If Dallas has the tie-break against us then why are we in the 8th spot on the MLS website ahead of Dallas?

cuz dallas has the tiebreak against us, n.e., and d.c. so then it becomes a 4-way tiebreak using all of our results against eachother.
we have the best record in the 4 team table so as of now we are in.
actually, as mentioned in the other thread, we have a 91.7% of going to the playoffs if we beat nyrb!

[mastermixer]

cuz dallas has the tiebreak against us, n.e., and d.c. so then it becomes a 4-way tiebreak using all of our results against eachother.
we have the best record in the 4 team table so as of now we are in.
actually, as mentioned in the other thread, we have a 91.7% of going to the playoffs if we beat nyrb!

Got it. So if Dallas wins next week, we need to have these teams with us in the tiebreak to put us ahead of them. If dallas loses/ties we are in.

[rocker]

Now, just to be certain here, a win does not guarantee a playoff spot, correct?
If TFC wins, and then Dallas and Colorado win (and nobody else does) then TFC finish 9th?

[Yohan]

my head exploded from all these equations

i'm just going to say that TFC win = playoffs and that's it.

damn you MLS and your crazy confusing rules!

[bignickel]

Now, just to be certain here, a win does not guarantee a playoff spot, correct?
If TFC wins, and then Dallas and Colorado win (and nobody else does) then TFC finish 9th?

yep, anything else we are in

[ensco]

yep, anything else we are in

Not quite. There are other tiebreakers that include Dallas and Colorado, for instance with DC only, where we are out.

[bignickel]

Not quite. There are other tiebreakers that include Dallas and Colorado, for instance with DC only, where we are out.

true, that's why the 91.7% if we win says it all, too many scenarios the percentage looks good to me

[flatpicker]

f##k...this makes algebra seem simple.

^ I thought you had misspelled Ali Gerba there for a second.
I was trying to figure out what your point was!

:D

[ensco]

Me: This thing is so close, it could be determined by a hanging chad.

Old Striker: Whatever his shortcomings, Barrett doesn't deserve that!

[Pookie]

Are there any scenerios where we get in with a tie?

The answer is yes.

A tie would put us on 40 points. Good enough for the 8th playoff spot but we'd need to ensure that:

RSL loses/draws to Colorado AND Dallas lost to Seattle AND DC draws/loses to KC AND NE draws/loses to Columbus.

If there is a different outcome any in of the above scenarios, the teams would either jump over 40 points or end up tied (and they would have the tiebreaker.

The good news is that the only game featuring any of the 7 teams in the hunt in head to head play is Colorado vs RSL. Any more of those games would be scary as someone is guaranteed to come out with points. Our best outcome to hope for in that match is a draw (see below).

A win is a little easier to figure out.

The only way we can win in NY and still not make the playoffs is if Colorado wins against RSL AND Dallas wins against Seattle.

If that scenario played out, that would put Chicago on 42 (+ whatever they do). We can't catch Chicago as they hold the tiebreaker. Colorado would be on 43 and Dallas would be on 42... tied with us but holding the tie breaker for the last spot.

Both of those outcomes need to happen for us to win and miss the playoffs.

There is no scenario where we make the playoffs with a loss.

[Pookie]

^ Here's the "How to Make the Playoffs for Dummies" version of the above:

If we WIN vs NY, hope for:

Colorado vs RSL - draw or RSL win
Dallas vs Seattle - draw or Seattle win

... just one of those results needs to happen for us to get in with a win

Chicago vs Chivas - don't care
NE vs Columbus - don't care
DC vs KC - don't care

If we DRAW vs NY, hope for:

Colorado vs RSL - draw or Colorado win
Dallas vs Seattle - Seattle win
NE vs Columbus - draw or Columbus win
DC vs KC - draw or KC win

.... all of those results need to happen for us to get in with a draw.

Chicago vs Chivas - don't care

If we LOSE vs NY, hope for:

2010 to come early. It'll be done for this year.

[ensco]

There is no scenario where we make the playoffs with a loss.

Not true. If everybody loses but Colorado, we are in.

[denime]

Not true. If everybody loses but Colorado, we are in.

Not true,Dallas would go in because of tiebreaker against TFC.

[Pookie]

Not true. If everybody loses but Colorado, we are in.

ah right... with the points per game not head to head.

You know what is interesting about that is that if there were a number of wins combined with a Chicago loss . A number of teams would end up on 42 points. That would bring an extra set of PPG into the mix. We only got 1 in our games with Chicago.

I guess with all the combinations, the good thing is that Chicago plays on Thursday so we'll know if they will be in the mix.

[bimmer]

Not true,Dallas would go in because of tiebreaker against TFC.

If New England and DC are involved (along with Dallas) then Toronto wins the tiebreakers, no?

[Blizzard]

If New England and DC are involved (along with Dallas) then Toronto wins the tiebreakers, no?

You are correct sir!

[denime]

Maybe this can help


WHO QUALIFIES: Eight teams qualify for the 2009 MLS Cup Playoffs. Playoff berths will be determined by points in the standings upon the completion of the regular season. All 15 teams will have played 30 games.

The top two teams in each conference qualify and are seeded 1 & 2 in their respective four-team playoff conference brackets.
The four MLS teams with the next most points, regardless of conference, receive "wildcard" berths.


The four wildcard teams will be seeded according to conference first.
If more than four teams qualify from one conference, the team finishing lower than fourth in its conference will shift over to the other conference bracket.
A team switching conference brackets will be seeded below all other teams in its new conference playoff bracket.


TEAM-STANDINGS TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
The team awarded the highest position in the MLS standings will be the team with the greatest number of points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss). In the event that two teams finish the regular season with an equal number of points, the following system will be used to break the tie:


The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition)
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the greater goal difference against all other teams during the regular season. (goal differential)
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team scoring the greatest number of total goals against all other teams during the regular season. (total goals)
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played on the road by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (road 1-3)
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the procedures described in this section shall be applied only to games played at home by each team against all other teams during the regular season. (home 1-3)
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position shall be awarded to the team with the fewest team disciplinary points in the League Fair Play table during the regular season.
If the teams are still equal in the standings, the highest position in the standings shall be determined by the toss of a coin.
The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.


http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/index.jsp?standings=playoff

[ensco]

Not true,Dallas would go in because of tiebreaker against TFC.

You might want to look again at how the 4 way tiebreak works. It's point 8 of your post directly above. Dallas would drop out of the existing 4 way tie. It's why TFC is 8th tonight on the MLS website. There are more detailed posts on it above and on the previous page of this thread.

[Bluenose13]

As weird as it may seem, I guess we want Chicago to win/tie on Thursday as they can only hurt us in a 3,4,5 way tie & they hold the tie-breaker against us.

[CretanBull]

Why does everything in the MLS have to be so complicated? How about using goal differencial as the tie breaker?

[Pookie]

As weird as it may seem, I guess we want Chicago to win/tie on Thursday as they can only hurt us in a 3,4,5 way tie & they hold the tie-breaker against us.

That's the way I read it. I did this quickly so it should be verified but if there was a 5 way tie on 42 points:

Chicago earned 13
Dallas earned 11
TFC, NE and DC all earned 10

Of course, that table can vary any number of ways depending on which teams/games are to be counted in the PPG mix.

Keeping Chicago out of the mix seems like the best way to improve our chances. That means a win or draw for them on Thursday to make them impossible for the 4 teams on 39 points to catch.

[denime]

You might want to look again at how the 4 way tiebreak works. It's point 8 of your post directly above. Dallas would drop out of the existing 4 way tie. It's why TFC is 8th tonight on the MLS website. There are more detailed posts on it above and on the previous page of this thread.

Oh,ok.

So we are in playoffs no matter what happens in NY :)

[TFC07]

Why does everything in the MLS have to be so complicated? How about using goal differencial as the tie breaker?

I know, eh? Luckily for us, Canadian Cup didn't use head-to-head tiebreaker. :D

[Super]

4 teams right now with 39 points. MLS rules puts the 4 teams into an isolated division to determine the best team with 39 points. Calculating the games between the 4 teams THIS is how it looks:

G W D L PTS SCORE
Toronto FC 6 2 3 1 9 13-8 (+5)
New England 6 2 2 2 8 7-8 (-1)
D.C United 6 1 3 2 5 9-10 (-1)
FC Dallas 6 2 1 3 5 7-9 (-2)

This is why we're first of the 4, and why we're now sitting in 8th spot (regardless of the fact that Dallas beats us on a tiebreaker).

[flatpicker]

^ wait... so now your are saying if Toronto wins, it doesn't matter what the other teams do?

I getting so lost in all this!

[bimmer]

^ wait... so now your are saying if Toronto wins, it doesn't matter what the other teams do?

I getting so lost in all this!

No, if Toronto wins and both Colorado AND Dallas win, then we want New England and DC to win as well. Otherwise we're only tied with Dallas and they beat us on tiebreakers.

[David_Oliveira]

http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/picture.php?albumid=162&pictureid=1959

[CretanBull]

You know what's going to happen, right? We're going to win in New York and all be happy as shit because we'll think that we're in and after the party has settled down the league is going to step in and say "you scored less goals while wearing your alternate jersey during afternoon games on even numbered days of the week so you're actually out of the play-offs". They'll call it the "being Canadian" rule.

[Super]

^ wait... so now your are saying if Toronto wins, it doesn't matter what the other teams do?

I getting so lost in all this!

I get why you feel lost because this is indeed the oddest way of determining who is top and bottom when you have a group of teams with the same amount of points. If we win on Saturday it's very likely we'll end at 42 points with a couple of other teams. Whether or not we finish at the 8th spot depends on who we share those 42 points with - and we better hope that it's not Dallas alone (assuming Colorado wins) because in that scenario we're out. You add another team, and then we might be in if we performed better than the other teams at 42 pts against each other - in total.

The easy answer is to hope for Colorado or Dallas to NOT win on Saturday. If either team drops points AND we beat NYRB it's play-off time for us. :)

Anyway, the table I put together is more to explain why we're 8th today because it confused quite a few people. The table should explain why - and also why Dallas is below us today and yet may not be on Saturday if they win along with Colorado (although there might be other possible scenarios out there, but my head hurts ;))

[rocker]

The easy answer is to hope for Colorado or Dallas to NOT win on Saturday. If either team drops points AND we beat NYRB it's play-off time for us. :)


I think a win is a longshot for Colorado. They are 2-7-5 on the road and they are playing a team that's 8-1-5 at home (RSL). by the way, TFC's road record is 2-7-5 as well, but at least NYRB have a 4-6-4 home record, so it's a little bit of an easier task. Dallas has a 3-9-2 road record (2 wins, 4 losses in past 6 road games), while Seattle is 6-2-6 at home.

[Pookie]

I think a win is a longshot for Colorado. They are 2-7-5 on the road and they are playing a team that's 8-1-5 at home (RSL). by the way, TFC's road record is 2-7-5 as well, but at least NYRB have a 4-6-4 home record, so it's a little bit of an easier task. Dallas has a 3-9-2 road record (2 wins, 4 losses in past 6 road games), while Seattle is 6-2-6 at home.

^ this is true BUT the outcome of Thursday's game is very important in determining if this is the scenario.

That Points per Game tiebreaker is very important. With a Chicago loss, they immediately could factor into a tiebreaker and we only picked up one point against them. DC and Dallas picked up 4 and 3 respectively.

A Chicago draw or win makes things somewhat easier to calculate and gives us a relative advantage in the PPG tiebreaker if there is a 3 way tie.

[ensco]

I get why you feel lost because this is indeed the oddest way of determining who is top and bottom when you have a group of teams with the same amount of points. If we win on Saturday it's very likely we'll end at 42 points with a couple of other teams. Whether or not we finish at the 8th spot depends on who we share those 42 points with - and we better hope that it's not Dallas alone (assuming Colorado wins) because in that scenario we're out. You add another team, and then we might be in if we performed better than the other teams at 42 pts against each other - in total.

The easy answer is to hope for Colorado or Dallas to NOT win on Saturday. If either team drops points AND we beat NYRB it's play-off time for us. :)

Anyway, the table I put together is more to explain why we're 8th today because it confused quite a few people. The table should explain why - and also why Dallas is below us today and yet may not be on Saturday if they win along with Colorado (although there might be other possible scenarios out there, but my head hurts ;))

That is the best explanation I've seen. Nicely done.

[MUFC_Niagara]

WHEN we win on Saturday, and we will win, I believe that we will get the results necessary for us to go through.

[Steve]

^ this is true BUT the outcome of Thursday's game is very important in determining if this is the scenario.

That Points per Game tiebreaker is very important. With a Chicago loss, they immediately could factor into a tiebreaker and we only picked up one point against them. DC and Dallas picked up 4 and 3 respectively.

A Chicago draw or win makes things somewhat easier to calculate and gives us a relative advantage in the PPG tiebreaker if there is a 3 way tie.

Yes, but, to make matters more complicated, if Chicago lose, we might actually take second in the east. Here's how it goes:

Chicago lose, TFC, DC, NE, COL and Dallas win:

Chicago, DC, NE, TFC, and Dallas are all tied on 42 points. We lose out right? Wrong. Actually, first we have to determine who wins second in the east, since they get an automatic spot. This means we can discount Dallas. In that scenario, TFC has 2 wins and 3 ties, putting us at 9 points. DC also has 2 wins and 3 ties, but they have played an extra game, giving us the advantage in PPG. This means we actually win the mini eastern conference table, giving us second place in the east and potentially home field advantage for the playoffs.

So, even if Chicago join the group, we're still good (in fact, we're better off) as long as DC and NE stay with us.

[TFC_Chris]

Here is the breakdown straight from the Toronto FC site.


Toronto FC's win over Real Salt Lake in the final home match of the regular season on Saturday was a massive boost to the Reds hopes of making the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time and the dream could now become a reality next weekend. The Reds take on New York Red Bulls at Giants Stadium (GOLTV, Saturday, 7:30 p.m.).

There are still many combinations of results that could either see TFC on the inside or outside of the Playoff places at the end of next weekend. The first tiebreaker is the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points (Head-to-Head). For the full MLS Playoff Standings, click here. (http://web.mlsnet.com/standings/index.jsp?standings=playoff)



To put it simply...
If Toronto FC win in New York and either FC Dallas or Colorado Rapids fail to pick up maximum points, the Reds would be in the Playoffs.


Beyond that scenario, things become more complicated with Toronto currently on 39 points, tied with New England, D.C. United and FC Dallas for the final Playoff place and still with the possibility of drawing level with Chicago Fire on 42 points and finishing second in the Eastern Standings.



Toronto FC would finish second if...
Chicago Fire lose on Thursday against Chivas USA and then TFC, D.C. United and New England all win. That would mean a four way tie between the teams on 42 points and Toronto would win the tiebreaker with the best Head-to-Head record between all four teams (nine points from six games).



Tiebreakers for the Playoff places:


Toronto FC win the tiebreaker if they finish level with:
D.C United or New England because of a better Head-to-Head record


Toronto FC lose the tiebreaker if they finish level with one of the following four teams:
Chicago Fire, FC Dallas, Colorado Rapids, Real Salt Lake


Toronto FC win the tiebreaker if the following three teams finish level:
D.C. United, New England, Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids, Real Salt Lake, Toronto FC



Toronto FC lose the tiebreaker if the following three teams finish level:
FC Dallas, New England, Toronto FC
FC Dallas, D.C. United, Toronto FC


Toronto FC win the tiebreaker if the following four teams finish level:
FC Dallas, D.C. United, New England, Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids, Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids, Real Salt Lake, D.C. United, Toronto FC


Toronto FC lose the tiebreaker if the following four teams finish level:
Colorado Rapids, Real Salt Lake, FC Dallas, Toronto FC


http://toronto.fc.mlsnet.com/news/team_news.jsp?ymd=20091019&content_id=7494086&vkey=news_t280&fext=.jsp&team=t280

Simple right? :noidea:

[flatpicker]

^ I thought I was understanding for a little while... and then it all fell apart!

It's like, in one scenario we will win a tie breaker with team X, but if we are tied with team X and also tied with team Y, then team X is suddenly better than us!

I need to go get some more coffee.

Perhaps I will try to stop thinking about all this and just pray for TFC to win.
And I get that if COL or DAL don't win, then we get in... so I will focus on that.
Beyond that, I will wait for someone to tell me if we are playoff bound.

[jabbronies]

So if we finish second...does that make this season a success??? or is there still room to bitch??

[Beach_Red]

So if we finish second...does that make this season a success??? or is there still room to bitch??


Ha, I was just thinking that. After all the bitching, there's still a chance to finish SECOND?!?!

It really shows what a huge difference not givig up those late goals would have made. One, two ties turned into wins and it's a whole different season.

I'm choosing to look at it optimistically now - the roster right now is so much better than it was at this time last season.

[brad]

Why does everything in the MLS have to be so complicated? How about using goal differencial as the tie breaker?

La Liga and Serie A both use head to head meetings as a tiebreaker, so we'll have to give MLS a pass on this one.

[MUFC_Niagara]

We've improved every season, that is all.

The playoff scenario is very confusing. Like i've said, if we win then I think we'll be in.

now.....

BELIEVE

[flatpicker]

Ha, I was just thinking that. After all the bitching, there's still a chance to finish SECOND?!?!

It really shows what a huge difference not givig up those late goals would have made. One, two ties turned into wins and it's a whole different season.

I'm choosing to look at it optimistically now - the roster right now is so much better than it was at this time last season.

As long as we make the playoffs, then I consider this season a success.
Not an overall success though, but pretty a decent step in the right direction.

And yes, I think our roster right now is the best it ever has been.
And considering all the players coming and going over the season, I think this team is finally starting to gel.
If we make the playoffs, I think we actually have a chance to do well.

[TFC07]

So if we finish second...does that make this season a success??? or is there still room to bitch??

There will always be a reason to bitch. :D

Besides, TFC playing like shit but end up finishing 2nd in the east just shows how weak our conference is. It doesn't mean TFC is a good team (they're .500 team)

[TFC Cityboy]

Not trying to jinx things here, but am trying to plan a vacation while not missing possible playoff dates.
Does anyone have dates for the various playoff rounds? I can't find anything on MLS or TFC sites...

I know the final is in Seattle on Nov 20 but I see nothing else listed...

[gunnerken]

Not trying to jinx things here, but am trying to plan a vacation while not missing possible playoff dates.
Does anyone have dates for the various playoff rounds? I can't find anything on MLS or TFC sites...

I know the final is in Seattle on Nov 20 but I see nothing else listed...

I'm in the same boat kind of...plans to go to Montreal for Halloween (tickets to go see Habs/Leafs to determine who is the absolute worst team in our conference) which I'm now fearing might be a potential playoff date. Best I can find on the MLS website is that playoffs "commence" on Oct. 29th...

[Nuvinho]

Not trying to jinx things here, but am trying to plan a vacation while not missing possible playoff dates.
Does anyone have dates for the various playoff rounds? I can't find anything on MLS or TFC sites...

I know the final is in Seattle on Nov 20 but I see nothing else listed...

It starts Oct. 29th. Last year they had 1 game on the thursday, then the rest of the games Saturday.

So I would say Oct. 31st and Nov. 7th for the first round games.

[iansmcl]

Too bad they don't just do top 4 in the east and top 4 in the west. ... At least for this season.

[ensco]

Not trying to jinx things here, but am trying to plan a vacation while not missing possible playoff dates.
Does anyone have dates for the various playoff rounds? I can't find anything on MLS or TFC sites...

I know the final is in Seattle on Nov 20 but I see nothing else listed...

As long as we don't finish second in the east (which is highly unlikely), our home game would almost certainly be Oct 31 or Nov 1. MLS only puts playoff games on Thursdays in situations where the stadium is being used by an NFL team on the weekend (this has happened to NE a couple of times).

[Detroit_TFC]

ESPN2's broadcast schedule has games on Thurs 10/29 9:30 p.m and Sun 11/1 5:00 p.m. Could certainly change, as these things do, but that's what's on there right now.

[ensco]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned above. TFC beating NY would not cause an in-game letdown for RSL. They start at 9pm EDT, at which point we'll be at about the 70th minute of our game.

RSL can get in by beating Colorado, as long as some other teams lose. The good news is that we are not necessarily one of those teams.

[Carts]

Everyone is doing a great job trying to explain all this - but for me, I personally won't celebrate being in the playoffs untill I see the release from the MLS themselves saying we've made it...

Carts...

[Pookie]

Everyone is doing a great job trying to explain all this - but for me, I personally won't celebrate being in the playoffs untill I see the release from the MLS themselves saying we've made it...

Carts...

I'll bet you that your "Special Loyalty Price Playoff Ticket Pre-sale Opportunity" email beats the MLS press release.

[Carts]

I'll bet you that your "Special Loyalty Price Playoff Ticket Pre-sale Opportunity" email beats the MLS press release.

AGREED!

Carts...

[MUFC_Niagara]

I won't be dissappointed if we don't get the result. If we get our chances and play with urgency and put in a memorable performance, i'll be happily dissappointed. All I demand of the players to play like they are playing for the last playoff spot.

[maninb]

I'll bet you that your "Special Loyalty Price Playoff Ticket Pre-sale Opportunity" email beats the MLS press release.

Has the pricing structure been released for the playoff tix?

[Hitcho]

^ Yep, I think supporter section tickets for SSH are $19. Huge kudos to MLSE for that, when you think how they could have cashed in, especially after the outlay on JDG and grass.

[Belfast_Boy]

^ I thought I was understanding for a little while... and then it all fell apart!

It's like, in one scenario we will win a tie breaker with team X, but if we are tied with team X and also tied with team Y, then team X is suddenly better than us!

I need to go get some more coffee.

Perhaps I will try to stop thinking about all this and just pray for TFC to win.
And I get that if COL or DAL don't win, then we get in... so I will focus on that.
Beyond that, I will wait for someone to tell me if we are playoff bound.

+1

I'm lost and I'm not going to try to figure it all out.

somebody just post "We're IN!" or "We're OUT!"

[twismca]

It will be SLIGHTLY easier to figure out after thursday nights clash between Chicago and Chivas.

I'm not a Pro-Line guy but I think It'll be a 3-way tie between TFC, DC, and Dallas which unfortunately is bad news for us....

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

no chance we'll lose to the last placed team in MLS...right.......?

[MUFC_Niagara]

no chance we'll lose to the last placed team in MLS...right.......?

I love TFC, but never say never....we've all learned that! :rolleyes:

[adam1001]

It will be SLIGHTLY easier to figure out after thursday nights clash between Chicago and Chivas.

I'm not a Pro-Line guy but I think It'll be a 3-way tie between TFC, DC, and Dallas which unfortunately is bad news for us....

True, but if if colorado OR dallas tie and we win, we are in. I doubt that both coloado and dallas will pull off wins.

[MUFC_Niagara]

True, but if if colorado OR dallas tie and we win, we are in. I doubt that both coloado and dallas will pull off wins.


I agree, if we win I really believe we'll be in. I will be surprised if both Colorado and Dallas win.

[Bluenose13]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned above. TFC beating NY would not cause an in-game letdown for RSL. They start at 9pm EDT, at which point we'll be at about the 70th minute of our game.

RSL can get in by beating Colorado, as long as some other teams lose. The good news is that we are not necessarily one of those teams.This is a very important scenario as RSL are very difficult to beat at home & having Colorado drop points ensure's us a play-off spot.

This is the make or break game for us & having RSL still have a chance is HUGE!

[Red4ever]

This is a very important scenario as RSL are very difficult to beat at home & having Colorado drop points ensure's us a play-off spot.

This is the make or break game for us & having RSL still have a chance is HUGE!

Imagine how much better we would all feel if Seattle was playing for something at home as well.

[Super]

Well, regardless of the results on Saturday, at least we can say that the drama lasted till the very last minute - and that's certainly a huge improvement from the last two years. I'm feeling very optimistic though, and no doubt Saturday is going to be a massive round of entertainment for all.

[Redpunkfiddle]

Once again MLS entertains us with dazzling final day possibilities.

Although, I'd kill for one-even just one- of those points we dropped earlier this year.

[mastermixer]

I just watched this video from seattle's site

http://www.soundersfc.com/media-library/Videos/Features/2009/10-October/091019-Practice.aspx?svt=0

They want to move up in the standings, so they are definately taking the game agains Dallas seriously. They are also saluting the fans that night so Dallas may have a hard time coming away with a win. :thumbsup:

[ManUtd4ever]

I hope Cunningham doesn't come back to bite TFC in the ass. I like our chances though if the Reds do their part and hammer the Shite Bulls...

[ManUtd4ever]

Once again MLS entertains us with dazzling final day possibilities.

Although, I'd kill for one-even just one- of those points we dropped earlier this year.

QFT!

[ensco]

Further braincramp.

Old Striker points out: Luke Wildman's piece on the TFC website:

(i) is not a full accounting of all Chicago scenarios
(ii) does not deal with the implications if the ties are for 6th, 7th or 8th. Most of us are assuming that the "mini-table" gets re-calculated without the winning team in the prior calculation, but this is actually not spelled out in the rules. Could it be that, for example, in a 6 way tie for 7th/8th, the top two teams in the "mini table" go through?

[denime]

Everything is explained on TFC Official website new article:

http://toronto.fc.mlsnet.com/news/team_news.jsp?ymd=20091019&content_id=7494086&vkey=news_t280&fext=.jsp&team=t280

[MUFC_Niagara]

Everything is explained on TFC Official website new article:

http://toronto.fc.mlsnet.com/news/team_news.jsp?ymd=20091019&content_id=7494086&vkey=news_t280&fext=.jsp&team=t280

Already posted

[Oldtimer]

I wouldn't take the New York game too lightly. They'll want to close their season with a win.

[Hitcho]

^ yep, last chance to salvage some dignity, and against a team that blows on the road too. Plus it's their last game before they move, no? So they might be pushing for a win to go out ona high there too.

Having said that, remember how we felt at the end of season one? That's how Seattle are feeling right now. They will definitely be pushing for a win. They have a lot to say thank you to their fans for this season, and they won;t want to choke.

Plus, no team, whatever the play off scenario and even if already in, wants to go into the post season off the back of a loss, especially at home.

So, if we beat the shite bulls then we have a really good chance of being in. That said, I expect drama of one sort or another at the weekend. It's just not the TFC way to stroll to a 3-0 win and then watch the next result go our way as we breeze into the post season without a flutter...

[RedsYNWA]

SO who do we cheer for tonight Chicago or Chivas????

[Jay P]

chivas!

with a chicago loss, there is a chance TFC can get the 2nd spot in the east


Toronto FC would finish second if... Chicago Fire lose on Thursday against Chivas USA and then TFC, D.C. United and New England all win. That would mean a four way tie between the teams on 42 points and Toronto would win the tiebreaker with the best Head-to-Head record between all four teams (nine points from six games).

[romburgundy]

anywher we can watch the Chit-cago game?

[Red4ever]

I have to cheer for chicago...

It clinches the shield for Columbus, giving them less to play vs NE and any tie brake that NE is in, makes our road easier. We won't get second. That being said, let's just take care of business

Also: the scenario in the race for 2nd ignores the Dallas - Seattle game

[Jay P]

anywher we can watch the Chit-cago game?

Gol TV

[Steve]

I have to cheer for chicago...

It clinches the shield for Columbus, giving them less to play vs NE and any tie brake that NE is in, makes our road easier. We won't get second. That being said, let's just take care of business

Also: the scenario in the race for 2nd ignores the Dallas - Seattle game

Yeah, what's your point? The Dallas - Seattle game has no effect on second place in the east, so if Chicago loses, we win, and NE and DC win we are second in the east and clinch the playoff spot.

[TFC Cityboy]

ah my head hurts!!!!
Do we want Chicago to win or not tonight?

[Suds]

anywher we can watch the Chit-cago game?

online http://atdhe.net/ if you don't have Gol TV

[Bluenose13]

SO who do we cheer for tonight Chicago or Chivas????Chicago.....Forget about 2nd place, the easiest way to the play-offs is to get Chicago out of any tie-breakers involving TFC.

[loconet]

Toronto FC Clinching Options

Eastern Conference Spot #1

The Toronto FC cannot win this spot
Eastern Conference Spot #2


Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Chivas USA beat the Fire, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards

Western Conference Spot #1

The Toronto FC cannot win this spot
Western Conference Spot #2

The Toronto FC cannot win this spot
Wildcard Spot #5

The Toronto FC cannot win this spot
Wildcard Spot #6

The Toronto FC cannot win this spot
Wildcard Spot #7


Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Fire beat the Chivas USA, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 2
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 3
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 4
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids

Wildcard Spot #8


Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Fire beat the Chivas USA, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas


Case 2
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 3
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United


Case 4
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards


Case 5
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 6
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids


Case 7
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas

Case 8
Crew beat the Revolution, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United, and
Rapids beat the Real Salt Lake

More here.. http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/torontofcstandings.html

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

Wildcard Spot #8

Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Fire beat the Chivas USA, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas

BOOK IT!!!!....I want the crew !!!! ;)

[denime]

Case 4
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Revolution beat the Crew, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards


I can live with this one too.

[JDG]

If we win against New York, either a KC win or a RSL win is all we need.

[Red4ever]

If we win against New York, either a KC win or a RSL win is all we need.

Or a seattle win...

[rocker]

you know what... I'm gonna worry about the permutations after I see what happens with TFC against NYRB. ;)

[flatpicker]

you know what... I'm gonna worry about the permutations after I see what happens with TFC against NYRB. ;)

You've got the permutations as well eh?
There's a lot of that going around.

[twistedchinaman]

I'd rather we get the Flameouts than the KKKrew...so bring it on!

[Oldtimer]

Now revised for the Chicago win:

Wildcard Spot #7


Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas


Case 2
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards, and
Revolution beat the Crew

Wildcard Spot #8


Case 1
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas


Case 2
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United


Case 3
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
D.C. United beat the Wizards, and
Revolution beat the Crew


Case 4
Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Real Salt Lake beat the Rapids, and
Revolution beat the Crew

Case 5
Rapids beat the Real Salt Lake, and
Wizards beat the D.C. United, and
Sounders beat the FC Dallas, and
Crew beat the Revolution


http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/torontofcclinch.html

[TOBOR !]

from that same site, probability of obtaining a playoff position (%):

team : 7th / 8th / miss
Rapids : 52 / 13 / 35
TFC : 25 / 33 / 42
DCU : 11 / 21 / 68
FCD : 7 / 16 / 77
Revs : 5 / 14 / 81
RSL : 0 / 3 / 97

These numbers are probably derived from a combination of available outcomes rather than probability of results, but we appear to be in a better position than most.

[Globetrotter]

So, all we really need to do is hope Colorado and Dallas both don't win. If Dallas does win, then we also have to hope that NE and DC also win.

So really... if we win, we cheer for RSL more than anything else (and they are at home!).

[Oldtimer]

BHTC_Mike of U-Sector has given the following other results that could see us in:


None of the above accounts for draws.

For instance, Wildcard Spot Case #1 should read:

Toronto FC beat the Red Bulls, and
Real Salt Lake beat or draw the Rapids, and
Sounders beat or draw the FC Dallas

and seriously, "the FC Dallas"? "The D.C. United"? I know it's a computer algorithm but come on!

Here's one they left off:

The Red Bulls beat the Toronto FC, and
the Sounders beat the FC Dallas,
the Rapids beat the Real Salt Lake,
the Wizards beat the DC United

Or this:

Toronto FC draw the Red Bulls, and
the Rapids beat the FC Dallas,
the Wizards beat or draw the D.C. United,
the Crew beat or draw the Revolution

[ganzo_thebest]

the Rapids beat the FC Dallas,

How did this happen????

[ensco]

Here's how to root for TFC in time sequence (courtesy of Old Striker, who refuses to take questions):

TFC play first, at 7.30pm (all times edt).

If TFC wins, we want DCU to win their 8.30pm game v the Wizards (it helps in tie-breakers). Next up is RSL-Rapids at 9.00: if COL loses or ties we are in, otherwise on to Dallas v Seattle at 10.30: if Dallas loses or ties we are in. If Colorado has won and Dallas wins (and DCU has lost or tied) we are eliminated, otherwise we would then require NE to win in which case we would advance via the same 4-way tiebreaker that currently gives us eighth.

If TFC loses, we REQUIRE all of DCU to lose, Colorado to win or tie, Dallas to lose and NE to lose

IF TFC ties, it is more complicated but essentially we want DCU to also tie, want Colorado to lose, want Dallas to lose and we want NE to tie or lose depending on the previous results. A combination of any two wins by DCU, Colorado (this can be a tie or win for them for this calculation), Dallas and NE and we are eliminated.

The earliest we can qualify in the tie scenario is with a Dallas loss, but not all Dallas loss scenarios allow us to qualify.

[jloome]

This is so immensely fucked. I hate parity.

Except, of course, that we're still in it.

Other than that, fucking hate parity. Too confusing. Makes the regular season seem a bit bloody pointless, too.

[Beach_Red]

This is so immensely fucked. I hate parity.

Except, of course, that we're still in it.

Other than that, fucking hate parity. Too confusing. Makes the regular season seem a bit bloody pointless, too.


And yet we hang on every game during the regular season ;).

I'm starting to feel the regular season is for supporters and playoffs are for TV ratings.

I wonder if the NFL ever would have overtaken baseball without the spectacle of the Super Bowl?

[Bobo]

This is so immensely fucked. I hate parity.

Except, of course, that we're still in it.

Other than that, fucking hate parity. Too confusing. Makes the regular season seem a bit bloody pointless, too.

Really? Pointless when every match has huge playoff implications? I think its the opposite. The regular season seems more pointless in the NBA than it does the MLS.

[Whoop]

I still prefer a single table format but you have to admit that with parity and two conference tables, it's crazy to think that the last games of the season still mean something. If not, we would have been out of it two months ago.

Much like all the playoffs scenarios, I don't know what to think.

[rocker]

i think it's stressful for supporters, but fascinating as well.. and keeps my interest up about the whole league. Why would I give a shit otherwise about RSL vs Colorado or DC vs Seattle? heheh.

maybe the dislike of parity is just a dislike of uncertainty. We don't like to be uncertain about outcomes to the degree that we see in MLS. Getting a solid, cracking result is difficult in MLS. Ensuring the playoffs by August is difficult in MLS (unlike, for example, MLB).

[flatpicker]

I still prefer a single table format but you have to admit that with parity and two conference tables, it's crazy to think that the last games of the season still mean something. If not, we would have been out of it two months ago.

Much like all the playoffs scenarios, I don't know what to think.

I'm not sure a single table would make much difference.
I think we would still see teams fighting to the final game to secure a spot.
The Conference set-up in MLS is poorly designed.
If they want a true geographical divide, then they should play more in-conference games than they already do.
And playoff standings should not cross-over between conferences.
With the way it's set up now, they might as well use a single table.
Especially considering they plan on having an even schedule next season, with home-away matches between all clubs.
It should be one way, or another... not half-way between!

Anyway, the parity will remain, and that's ok, I like the excitement.

[ensco]

It's wild, and a big win for MLS. Any sports league wants 80% of the teams in the playoff hunt on the last day.

[Whoop]

I'm not sure a single table would make much difference.
I think we would still see teams fighting to the final game to secure a spot.
The Conference set-up in MLS is poorly designed.
If they want a true geographical divide, then they should play more in-conference games than they already do.
And playoff standings should not cross-over between conferences.
With the way it's set up now, they might as well use a single table.
Especially considering they plan on having an even schedule next season, with home-away matches between all clubs.
It should be one way, or another... not half-way between!

Anyway, the parity will remain, and that's ok, I like the excitement.

I think when people speak of a single table they're probably talking about much like everywhere else in the football where 1st place = champion.

At least that's my opinion of a single table.

[Beach_Red]

I'm not sure a single table would make much difference.



With teams moving over for the playoff seeding it's pretty close to a single table now. Even the other sports are showing up in more like a single table format. On its website the NFL offers the standings in a few different formats including a single table - though it's way too many teams for that. the sort of 'two tables' of the NHL we see more of these days looks pretty good.

[Jay P]

GOL TV will now be showing the Dallas/Seattle match after the TFC match with look ins for the Rapids/RSL match too

very good news.

[flatpicker]

I think when people speak of a single table they're probably talking about much like everywhere else in the football where 1st place = champion.

At least that's my opinion of a single table.

Sure... MLS could easily do that... it's pretty much that way already considering the way playoffs are set up.
Not to mention, 1st place equals "regular season" champion right now.

But no reason why we can have the single table and still showcase the MLS Cup playoffs.
It's like a mini version of the FA Cup.

[Super]

GOL TV will now be showing the Dallas/Seattle match after the TFC match with look ins for the Rapids/RSL match too

very good news.

Great move by MLSE. Respect!

[Steve]

This is so immensely fucked. I hate parity.

Except, of course, that we're still in it.

Other than that, fucking hate parity. Too confusing. Makes the regular season seem a bit bloody pointless, too.

I really don't understand this point of view. I was looking at this week's games and thinking "Holy shit, this is the greatest, I'm so glad we're not using the EPL single table model!". As it stands, every single game of the season had a significant effect on the post-season. Not only that, but every single game this weekend matters! How often can you say that in a single table, winner take all league? Fans are going over combinations and permutations and wondering how their team gets into the playoffs. Fans want to watch every single game they can this weekend because they have a vested interest. How the hell can you say that a single table like we use, and parity like we have, takes away anything?

[Lennon]

All these teams dropping points and keeping us alive is like torture ... a slow and painful death

I wish I could be more optimistic

Ugh .. I knew it ...

[Lennon]

It's funny, the mood here is a lot more positive after our fortunate win ...
A lot of people are going to be pissed off if we fail to make it to the playoffs now:toetap05:

:sad:

[ensco]

I don't know if it makes anyone feel better, but everyone spit the bit last night.

RSL, the team with the worst chance of making it yesterday afternoon, 3%, is already in. The team with the next worst chance, NE at 14% yesterday, is in with a draw today.

[TOBOR !]

^ I was just gonna day that.

Imagine, though, that you were a RSL supporter and the stars aligned the way they did - you'd be shitting your pants with excitement (especially after thinking that there was no way things would work out for you).

Amazing.

This would never happen for TFC, though.

[Beach_Red]

I don't know if it makes anyone feel better, but everyone spit the bit last night.

RSL, the team with the worst chance of making it yesterday afternoon, 3%, is already in. The team with the next worst chance, NE at 14% yesterday, is in with a draw today.

I have a feeling NE show up to play...

[ensco]

I have a feeling NE show up to play...

Yup. They won 1-0. They are through.