PDA

View Full Version : Play-off Prediction - Were In !



anto7
09-27-2009, 04:41 PM
O.K., so with DC losing this afternoon and the way pretty much all of the results went our way again this weekend, despite our terrible inconsistancy we are still very much in the play-off race.
9 teams chasing the final 4 spots.
I went through each of the games left for these 9 teams and predicted the results.
Here is my results;
5th - Chivas - 46pts
6th - Colorado - 44pts
7th - Seattle - 42pts
8th - Toronto - 42pts
9th - New E - 39pts
10th - DC - 38pts
11th - RSL - 38pts
12th - Kansas - 35pts
13th - Dallas - 34pts

This assumes we will win our 2 home games and get a tie in New York which I think is doable.
Go ahead and pick holes with this or try to make your own predictions.

ArmenJBX
09-27-2009, 04:45 PM
We will win our next two games. We will be leading 2-1 in the 89 minute against New York. Those three points would get us in the playoffs. 90th minute, we get a penalty called against us. The game ends 2-2.

We lost out by 1 point.

But that's just my prediction.

RedsYNWA
09-27-2009, 04:49 PM
I was just doing the same thing...and if we run the table and win our last 3 we are in for sure.. RSL and DC are goners Seattle might be toast as well

Now Camon boys don't shit the bed at home we need 2 wins tons of time to rest up as well

TFCUNITED
09-27-2009, 04:51 PM
We will win our next two games. We will be leading 2-1 in the 89 minute against New York. Those three points would get us in the playoffs. 90th minute, we get a penalty called against us. The game ends 2-2.

We lost out by 1 point.

But that's just my prediction.

That penalty call will be against either Wynne or Garcia. I think we still have a chance at making the playoffs but we need to pick up points for those final games.

ArmenJBX
09-27-2009, 04:53 PM
We resign Marco Velez in the last minute due to a string of injuries to key defenders. Velez has had the game of his life against NYRB. We are all on the RPB forums praising him and apologizing. 90th minute, ball comes in, Velez jumps and grabs the ball with his two hands. Penalty.

That's how we lose :D

Oldtimer
09-27-2009, 05:01 PM
DC lost against San Jose? :lol:

WOW.

We're back in the running!!!!

egoodwin
09-27-2009, 05:03 PM
We will win our next two games. We will be leading 2-1 in the 89 minute against New York. Those three points would get us in the playoffs. 90th minute, we get a penalty called against us. The game ends 2-2.

We lost out by 1 point.

But that's just my prediction.
Wynne hand ball

Redpunkfiddle
09-27-2009, 05:05 PM
DC lost against San Jose? :lol:

WOW.

We're back in the running!!!!


Uh huh. We are SET! Starting with a soft match at home against....

d'oh!

Beach_Red
09-27-2009, 05:06 PM
I was just doing the same thing...and if we run the table and win our last 3 we are in for sure.. RSL and DC are goners Seattle might be toast as well

Now Camon boys don't shit the bed at home we need 2 wins tons of time to rest up as well


I don't understand this post. Is this optimism? Here? ;)

We knew from the first game of the season it would come down to the last game.

Kaz
09-27-2009, 05:20 PM
2 wins and a tie should do the trick
3 wins and we are in for sure..
that is the trick though..

ArmenJBX
09-27-2009, 05:31 PM
2 wins and a tie should do the trick
3 wins and we are in for sure..
that is the trick though..

I'm not too sure about that. Last year, the 42 got teams in because one team wasn't incredibly horrible. This year, Red Bulls dropped a shitton of points, and that means the overall point difference went up. 2 games won't do it. All three or we're out.

Razor
09-27-2009, 05:38 PM
Win 2 and Tie 1? Not going to happen, sorry. We will miss the playoffs this year.

DangerRed
09-27-2009, 05:48 PM
Are you guys high? Thanks to Garcia -- who I called the team's single biggest liability last week, before all this "stuff" happened on Saturday -- we'll miss the playoffs.

CC, DO NOT START HIM!!!!

T.O TILL I DIE
09-27-2009, 05:52 PM
Stop Jinxing Itt!!!
This Thread Is Bad Luck

Shakes McQueen
09-27-2009, 06:10 PM
I actually think the away game in New York is one of the more winnable games we have. While NY have been better with the departure of JCO, they are far from good, or even decent still.

Winning our last three is unlikely, but not outside the realm of possibility. I will remain optimistic, until we are officially eliminated. And other teams keep doing us favours, in that respect.

- Scott

__wowza
09-27-2009, 06:25 PM
We resign Marco Velez in the last minute due to a string of injuries to key defenders. Velez has had the game of his life against NYRB. We are all on the RPB forums praising him and apologizing. 90th minute, ball comes in, Velez jumps and grabs the ball with his two hands. Penalty.

That's how we lose :D

:rofl: oh god, i actually just let out a "BWAHHH HA HAA!!" at work..

ArmenJBX
09-27-2009, 06:26 PM
:rofl: oh god, i actually just let out a "BWAHHH HA HAA!!" at work..

Thanks :D

Showtimes:

Monday-Saturday 9:00-1:00

Chevy
09-27-2009, 06:55 PM
It seems like the results across the league always go our way...

...........EXCEPT FOR THE GAMES WE ACTUALLY PLAY IN!!!!!

joesoccerfan
09-27-2009, 07:03 PM
We will have a bit of a chance with two wins and a tie, three wins will get us in for sure.

All the possibilities calculated here (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html). It says 67% chance if we get 7 points and 99% for 9.

Kaz
09-27-2009, 07:15 PM
I'm not too sure about that. Last year, the 42 got teams in because one team wasn't incredibly horrible. This year, Red Bulls dropped a shitton of points, and that means the overall point difference went up. 2 games won't do it. All three or we're out.

With the odd results the last two weeks I took a look again.

Columbus 53
Houston__48
Chicago__46
Chivas___46
LA______ 45
Revs____ 44
Colorado_44
Seattle__ 44

Toronto needs 3 wins. I thought Colorado games would hurt them more then they did.
this is based on games left, performance home and away, performance season wide, and performance over the last 6 weeks.

DC should get 42 TFC if keeps playing as it has been will finish with 39... 3 wins is a must though. San Jose and New York have both rebounded It's going to be tough but it is workable, with the boy hold it togeather and really want it. we are in the same place we were before the LA game needing 3 wins and a tie to hit that 44 mark. We have the tie now for the three wins.

stu!
09-28-2009, 11:21 AM
The power of the Leaf fan is alive and well in this thread.....

London
09-28-2009, 11:28 AM
how much you smoke before posting this?

if the revs win 2 games they will likely be in.

2 out of 5 is not a stretch.


DC and seatle are the teams we need to pass

DangerRed
09-28-2009, 11:54 AM
This team's not making the playoffs if the lineup stays the same with Nick Garcia at back. We'll win both at home (RSL by the skin of our teeth) or win and draw. Then, we'll drop the Shitebulls match in the 84th minute. Bye bye.

Oldtimer
09-28-2009, 12:12 PM
This team's not making the playoffs if the lineup stays the same with Nick Garcia at back. We'll win both at home (RSL by the skin of our teeth) or win and draw. Then, we'll drop the Shitebulls match in the 84th minute. Bye bye.

Serioux will probably be back next match. It's not all doom-and-gloom (even though its an outside chance for us to win all 3).

Beach_Red
09-28-2009, 12:33 PM
DC and seatle are the teams we need to pass

It will be very sweet when we beat New York in the last game and Dallas beat Seattle to knock them out of the playoffs.

Pigfynn
09-28-2009, 12:42 PM
Well as I posted in the news thread, New England got some baaaaddddd news themselves: Ralston out for the season: http://www.soccerbyives.net/soccer_by_ives/2009/09/ralston-out-for-season-with-torn-acl.html

v00d00daddy
09-28-2009, 12:43 PM
I agree with some of you that we will not be making the playoffs this year.

But for those of you who are saying that we're not going to make the playoffs because of Garcia....get a fucking grip.

TFC have won 3 games since the END OF JUNE!!!!!!!!!!!

There are way more problems than just Garcia folks.

Why can't people around here see that the WHOLE team is responsible for this season (except JDG cause he came in so late).

Every single player, every single coach.

Does this mean they all suck? No.

Does it mean they're all responsible? Yup.

Just as an example....people think that DeRo's contribution has been great (and it has) but they fail to acknowledge that he hurt his team in the last few games. He's two steps forward and one step back sometimes.

There it is...our best, most productive, most loved player contributed to this teams downfall.

This whole team needs some help.

Kaz
09-28-2009, 12:58 PM
Oddly enough I'm not really worried about the San Jose game it should be a win. RSL is winable at home.

it's the New York game that worries me the most. If we actually win the other two, I think the boys away from home and over confident could really mess that up.

Worried alittle bit about the other two as well.. but I am still optimistic.

Pigfynn
09-28-2009, 01:02 PM
Thet won't lose on the 10th, that I'm sure about. As for the other games I really am worried about those.

Beach_Red
09-28-2009, 01:06 PM
TFC have won 3 games since the END OF JUNE!!!!!!!!!!!




The same as Seattle.

Hugh Jazz
09-28-2009, 01:19 PM
how much you smoke before posting this?

if the revs win 2 games they will likely be in.

2 out of 5 is not a stretch.


The Revs play two road games in the next 6 days and then their last 3 games are against Columbus and Chicago. Factor in the loss of Ralston and their chances seem almost as slim as ours.

anto7
09-28-2009, 01:53 PM
how much you smoke before posting this?

if the revs win 2 games they will likely be in.

2 out of 5 is not a stretch.


DC and seatle are the teams we need to pass
Actually I was not smoking anything, I took the time to look at their fixtures, did you ?.
Here they are;
away to Dallas - 0pts
away to Rapids - 0pts
home to Crew - 1pt
home to Fire - 1pt
away to Crew - 0pts

Lennon
09-28-2009, 02:04 PM
Actually I was not smoking anything, I took the time to look at their fixtures, did you ?.
Here they are;
away to Dallas - 0pts
away to Rapids - 0pts
home to Crew - 1pt
home to Fire - 1pt
away to Crew - 0pts

I think that is being very optimistic ... I could easily go like

away to Dallas - 1 pt
away to Rapids - 0pts
home to Crew - 3pt
home to Fire - 1pt
away to Crew - 0pts

I think we have a better chance of overtaking Seattle who have the Krew, Wizards, and Dallas all on the road ...

anto7
09-28-2009, 02:16 PM
I think that is being very optimistic ... I could easily go like

away to Dallas - 1 pt
away to Rapids - 0pts
home to Crew - 3pt
home to Fire - 1pt
away to Crew - 0pts

I think we have a better chance of overtaking Seattle who have the Krew, Wizards, and Dallas all on the road ...
Maybe a little optimistic. I could see them perhaps getting a point in Dallas but do not see them beating the Crew.
Seattle I had 0 points at the Crew, 1 pt at KC and then beating Dallas who I am pretty sure they play in Seattle

ForestGlade
09-28-2009, 04:10 PM
They have two games at home and then a match at the Shite Bulls. I think 5 points is a minumum here

DC has to play Chivas and Columbus, as well as Kansas City on the road and 2 Champions League matches. I say they get worn down and TFC sneaks in

DangerRed
09-28-2009, 04:47 PM
Toke, toke, pass, eh boys?

I wish you guys were right, but there is no way.

See you in the offseason. It's going to be a long one.

TFC07
09-28-2009, 04:53 PM
We can do it! :flare:

:scarf: Till I Die!

CenturySam
09-28-2009, 06:10 PM
Toke, toke, pass, eh boys?

I wish you guys were right, but there is no way.

See you in the offseason. It's going to be a long one.


Montreal, 6-1, NCC. 'BELIEVE"

Bars92
09-28-2009, 06:32 PM
Our current form is good enough to beat RSL at home and smoke SJ and NY. We are in for sure. Confidence is high.

jloome
09-28-2009, 06:38 PM
If we make it, which I don't think is the case, it'll be because DC collapses completely, not because we can win two games in a row or score better than a goal every three games on the road.

ensco
09-28-2009, 06:44 PM
Just reminding everyone that SJ in their last 3 games have 5 points against similar teams to ours - they beat DC away, and should have swept Colorado.

They are playing waaaay better than their overall record would lead you to believe.

MLS schedule maker working overtime in our favor on this one: while we are training for two weeks, SJ have two games next week before they play us. They host the Red Bulls Saturday, then Dallas on Wednesday. Both games in which SJ could/should get results. But then they fly cross country on two days rest to play us.

The next game is probably our toughest of the three.

zeelaw
09-28-2009, 06:56 PM
Here's my predictions.
http://www.thesubsbench.ca/?p=1877


We all hope so and with 3-5 games left there is still a lot to be decided. I was trying to figure out what the chances are, so instead of doing them in my head I figured I would make a post to try and understand my own thoughts. So here is what my brain has spit up.

Realistic Contenders who played 27 games
Colorado (39), Seattle Sounders (38), DC United (36), Toronto FC(35), Real Salt Lake(34)
Realistic Contenders who played 25 games
Chivas USA (38), New England (37)

Now the fact that Chivas and Revolution have two games in hand and +3,+2 in point differential is not a good thing by any means for TFC. They also have games against San Jose and Kansas City at home. Because of this I’m going to give them a playoff spot. Chivas will make the playoffs.
So that leaves three playoff spots left.

Now New England’s schedule is not as easy. Next week they are away to a red-hot FC Dallas with an inform Jeff Cunningham. Followed by an away game at the Rapids who are also fighting to make sure they qualify. Then finish with Columbus twice and Chicago. Despite having 5 games left, the Rev’s future is by no means assured. Here is how I look at it. The Rev’s give up a lot on the Road and to a FC Dallas team that has 25 goals at home this season it doesn’t look promising. They will get no points in Texas. No points in Colorado. Columbus is on fire and could steal all six points, this depends on the type of squad they put out considering the race for the supporters shield. The big game is home at Chicago, knowing the pressure I can see them getting a win here. Add those points with maybe a draw during the other 4 and they’ll finish with 41 Points (New England Revolution)

Colorado needs to beat the Revolution at home to have any chance of making the playoffs. That won’t be easy considering the Revolution want it just as much. I still see Colorado getting the result here. After they are on the road to Dallas, who is very hot right now. The most I can see is a draw, and I’ll give them that. They should then lose on the road to RSL who are also fighting for that last spot. 43 Points (Colorado Rapids)
Seattle Sounders started hot but have faded back a bit. They are still in a great position with three games left to qualify. They will lose away at the leaders Columbus, but will overcome the Wizards on the road. This sets up a big game at home to Dallas, and I feel strong that by then Dallas would of cooled off and Seattle will finish on 44 Points (Seattle Sounders)

DC United have a difficult schedule with Champions League games being mixed in-between their final 3. The host Chivas USA who are in the same position as they are. Saying that Chivas still need to assure a position. I think they will both play out to a draw despite Chivas being poor on the road. They then host the Crew who show no signs of stopping. They then finish away at Kansas City who by now should have nothing to play for. I see DC United getting three points here. They will finish with 40 Points (DC United)

Real Salt Lake have a very winnable game at home to last place Red Bulls and they will get all 3 points. They they have a huge game on the road to Toronto FC. TFC wants the playoffs just as much, so it should set up an incredible match. My heart says that RSL would lose at BMO, but my brain predicts a draw. Who knows… A tricky match at home to Colorado could be a shocker, but I think they will get 3 points. 40 Points (Real Salt Lake)

So on to Toronto FC. They are at home to San Jose (2nd last in the league), which really should be a win no matter how bad the form. JDG is getting fitter and the players are feeling the pressure even more so. After that they face Real Salt Lake. This is a huge match-up and it could go anyway, but for hte sake of being safe I think RSL could come up to BMO and get a draw (I’m trying my hardest to avoid TFC bias)) I’m already getting hyped up for the match. Now assuming TFC do get 6 points it sets up a very large game away at NYRB. All will be lost if TFC can’t get 3 points here. 42 Points (Toronto FC)

So here is my final standings
1-5 Columbus, Houston, Los Angeles, Chicago, Chivas uSA

6 Seattle Sounders on 44pts.

7 Colorado Rapids on 43pts.

8 Toronto FC on 42pts.


It seems unlikely, but when I briefly look at every game I did come out with this. So it’s as simple as this. If TFC win out, they will qualify. That isn’t 100% correct, but its very, very probable.

But if they can’t do that, then these three things need to happen to get through with 7 points.


Columbus needs to remain competitive in the Supporter’s Shield or they may field weaker squads
FC Dallas incredible form needs to continue and take some matches
No other teams fighting for playoffs can get hot

*Knock on wood

ensco
09-28-2009, 07:29 PM
If we win out, we're in.

99.5% guaranteed.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

anto7
09-28-2009, 08:16 PM
Here's my predictions.
http://www.thesubsbench.ca/?p=1877

Good analysis and the final results are not too far from mine. Only problem is that you appear to have missed Chivas in your final standings.

zeelaw
09-28-2009, 08:28 PM
Good analysis and the final results are not too far from mine. Only problem is that you appear to have missed Chivas in your final standings.
oh shit thanks!

Bars92
09-28-2009, 08:32 PM
Never rule out a team from Mexico!

Bobo
09-28-2009, 09:04 PM
DC lost against San Jose? :lol:

Ugh, I don't think we ought to be laughing. Especially since if we lose against them this weekend (that idea so crazy?), the rest of the league gets to laugh at us for allowing them to kill our little dream of three straight wins pretty quickly.

Juanito
09-28-2009, 09:47 PM
I am 90+% confident we WON'T make the playoffs. We don't control our destiny anymore. Winning the last three matches doesn't guarantee us anything. Since we aren't playing teams we are directly trying to catch up, we have to rely on other teams to slow them down.

Not to mention this fact: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THIS TEAM WON THREE MATCHES IN A ROW?! I don't know the answer to that either.

Wishful thinking is our best bet right now. I'm not saying it can't happen, but statistically-speaking, we are hoping they do something they have not done all year .... CONSISTENCY!!!

Bars92
09-28-2009, 10:27 PM
One match at a time.

Kaz
09-28-2009, 10:32 PM
Actually I was not smoking anything, I took the time to look at their fixtures, did you ?.
Here they are;
away to Dallas - 0pts
away to Rapids - 0pts
home to Crew - 1pt
home to Fire - 1pt
away to Crew - 0pts

Umm no

first off it's difficult to accurately predict the out come of a match in MLS sometimes as early as hours before hand.

but you can look at recent record and the such to predict how they will do over all.

You are basically hoping the Revs won't win another game this season
I realize that Ralston is out for the season. which may be enough to cost them if someone can't step up but with Joesph and Twellman still there you will see them win at least 1 and tie two of those.

They'll beat Dallas and most likely the Rapids. and may tie Chicago or the crew... 42 points is the minimum I see for the revs.



Not to mention this fact: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME THIS TEAM WON THREE MATCHES IN A ROW?! I don't know the answer to that either.


June
Red Bulls
Montreal
Red Bulls. ;)

Prior to that April of 2008, so we are due for one. :)

ensco
09-29-2009, 06:50 AM
June
Red Bulls
Montreal
Red Bulls. ;)

Prior to that April of 2008, so we are due for one. :)

Those weren't MLS teams.

OK, maybe the Impact were MLS caliber, on a good day.

Kaz
09-29-2009, 07:00 AM
Those weren't MLS teams.

OK, maybe the Impact were MLS caliber, on a good day.

when did the red bulls stop being an MLS team?

and the April 2008 streak was all MLS

so like I say we are due for one. Thus it's even more likely ;)

anto7
09-30-2009, 08:08 PM
Umm no

first off it's difficult to accurately predict the out come of a match in MLS sometimes as early as hours before hand.

but you can look at recent record and the such to predict how they will do over all.

You are basically hoping the Revs won't win another game this season
I realize that Ralston is out for the season. which may be enough to cost them if someone can't step up but with Joesph and Twellman still there you will see them win at least 1 and tie two of those.

They'll beat Dallas and most likely the Rapids. and may tie Chicago or the crew... 42 points is the minimum I see for the revs.



June
Red Bulls
Montreal
Red Bulls. ;)

Prior to that April of 2008, so we are due for one. :)
First prediction in the books - New England lose against Dallas !

bignickel
10-01-2009, 07:48 AM
Our current form is good enough to beat RSL at home and smoke SJ and NY. We are in for sure. Confidence is high.

it is interesting that both s.j. and r.s.l play the wednesday before playing at bmo. this could help alot.
the montreal experience should help the confidence if we go into n.y. needing a win to get in.
that, mixed with cunninghams hard work as our m.v.p. for helping us out in the standings and i think we will see a playoff game at bmo.
i feel that we will pull this off!

ManUtd4ever
10-01-2009, 08:27 AM
The only positive is that TFC controls their own fate. If we run the table with 3 wins other fixtures won't be a factor and we'll surely get into the playoffs. Anything less and it's a crap shoot...

jloome
10-01-2009, 10:46 AM
Umm no

first off it's difficult to accurately predict the out come of a match in MLS sometimes as early as hours before hand.

but you can look at recent record and the such to predict how they will do over all.

You are basically hoping the Revs won't win another game this season
I realize that Ralston is out for the season. which may be enough to cost them if someone can't step up but with Joesph and Twellman still there you will see them win at least 1 and tie two of those.

They'll beat Dallas and most likely the Rapids. and may tie Chicago or the crew... 42 points is the minimum I see for the revs.



June
Red Bulls
Montreal
Red Bulls. ;)

Prior to that April of 2008, so we are due for one. :)

Twellman's out for the season.

Libra_60
10-01-2009, 12:09 PM
Just having the opportunity to be in this position so late in the season is great for all true TFC fans. Having this opportunity should give our fans something to cheer about at our next two homwe games. The boys will be rested and Cummins and company should have the best lineup available to produce the necessary wins to get us through into the playoffs. I can't wait to be in my seats for these next two games. Come on you REDS.

DangerRed
10-01-2009, 12:26 PM
Just having the opportunity to be in this position so late in the season is great for all true TFC fans. Having this opportunity should give our fans something to cheer about at our next two homwe games. The boys will be rested and Cummins and company should have the best lineup available to produce the necessary wins to get us through into the playoffs. I can't wait to be in my seats for these next two games. Come on you REDS.

Ah, the naivete. I'll talk to you after we beat San Jose, draw RSL and get eliminated by the Shitebulls.

But in the meantime.... :stogey:

rocker
10-01-2009, 07:43 PM
Ah, the naivete. I'll talk to you after we beat San Jose, draw RSL and get eliminated by the Shitebulls.

But in the meantime.... :stogey:

by the sounds of it, I'd have thought you wouldn't even be watching TFC's final three games ....

thanks for the crystal ball prediction.

twistedchinaman
10-02-2009, 03:41 AM
Here's how I see it. No I was not on drugs -- but seeing NE lose Wednesday night to a surging Dallas plus two, count 'em, TWO matches against Cowlumpass -- I just don't see it from them. Chivas is going to make it, no questions. Ditto Colorado, although their road form could cost them positioning. But we MUST WIN THE LAST THREE MATCHES.


(e1) Cowlumpass 54
(w1) Houston 50
(w2) Goat Curry USA 47
(e2) Shitcago 44
(e3) Toronto 44 (-- again, assuming we win 'em all)
(w3) Colorado 43
(w4) Seattle 42
(e4) LA Galaxatives 42
=============
DC 40
New England 39
Dallas 39
RSL 38
KC 33
San Jose 29
New York -- who the fucken hell cares???


It's a straight royal flush or nothing, gents...COME ON YOU REDS!!