Today's News,Sunday, Aug.30

[denime]

Mornin'


Toronto FC postgame quotes (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/soundersfcblog/2009771633_toronto_fc_postgame_quotes.html?syndica tion=rss)


TFC scoreless in Seattle (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/soccer/tfc-scoreless-in-seattle/article1269612/)


Toronto FC battles to scoreless draw with Sounders (http://www.cbc.ca/sports/soccer/story/2009/08/29/sp-toronto-seattle-mls.html)


Fired-up offence still can't finish as TFC goal drought grows (http://www.thestar.com/soccer/mls/article/688456)


TFC, Seattle waste chances in 0-0 tie (http://www.sportsnet.ca/soccer/2009/08/29/tfc_seattle/)


Toronto plays Seattle to a draw (http://toronto.fc.mlsnet.com/news/team_news.jsp?ymd=20090829&content_id=6682766&vkey=news_t280&fext=.jsp&team=t280)


http://i31.tinypic.com/2czyjb6.jpg


http://i28.tinypic.com/ra15l1.jpg



SUNSHINE (http://www.torontosun.com/sunshinegirl/)

[Roogsy]

Ugh...those standings really moved this week with the results. :(

Missed opportunities. We should've had 3rd spot in the east sealed up weeks ago.

[king dave]

Playoffs?
Not looking good.
Chances of other teams in the race tanking all at once are very slim.
Maybe I'll look on ebay for a miracle.
KD.

[rocker]

wait, when teams had games in hand on us, everyone worried even though we were ahead of them in points. Now we have games in hand on teams that are ahead of us in points.

[flatpicker]

I wish you luck Dave!

_8yo1CY9wRU

[Beach_Red]

Now I'm starting to see the benefits of a promoton-relegation system as opposed to a playoff system. With five teams below us in the standings we're in no danger of being relegated ;).

[Roogsy]

wait, when teams had games in hand on us, everyone worried even though we were ahead of them in points. Now we have games in hand on teams that are ahead of us in points.

Are you referring to Seattle and RSL? Are you overlooking Chivas, New England
, DC and Colorado none of whom we have games in hand over (in fact the opposite with several of them) but are either even on points or ahead in points on us? Let's look at this teams first before we look at teams that we aren't in playoff battles with.

(Note: Colorado is a point behind us but has a game in hand, the only exception.)

[S_D]

wait, when teams had games in hand on us, everyone worried even though we were ahead of them in points. Now we have a game in hand on teams that are ahead of us in points.

With the exception of new England that has 2 games in hand on us and they are one of the teams we need to catch.

Top 2 teams in our conference are essentially unreachable which means we are competing for 1 of the other 4 playoff spots

TFC:
50% winning percentage at home
18% winning percentage away

Add to that the jekyl and hyde consistency

I can understand the anxiety.

50/50 we make the playoffs. We will need help from the bottom feeders to take some points away from the higher up teams.

[Roogsy]

50/50?

I would say close to a 25% probability of Toronto making it. 1 in 4 odds are still doable but they keep making the uphill battle even steeper.

After the DC game, we were 50/50 to make the playoffs, with a win and draw since then, our chances have dropped substantially.

[Wagner]

What I don't like is that TFC doesn't control it's own destiny.
are chances are dependent on what other people do.

BlxKeczPqJI

[S_D]

50/50?

I would say close to a 25% probability of Toronto making it. 1 in 4 odds are still doable but they keep making the uphill battle even steeper.

After the DC game, we were 50/50 to make the playoffs, with a win and draw since then, our chances have dropped substantially.

I was trying to be positive as god forbid I get labelled a pessimist. :D

[Juanito]

Lets look at our Wins-Draws-Losses ...

We are 6-3-3 at home (21 points in 12 matches)
We are 2-4-5 on the road (10 points in 11 matches)

I think the top two spots are out of our reach ... which leaves New England (33 points in 21 matches) and DC United (32 points in 23 matches).

Let's ASSUME we get the 9 points from our final three matches at home. Our current road record would indicate that we'll get four points. 13 points may just be enough to get through. I think 15 would be more like it, but it depends on how NE and DC do. We don't control our destiny anymore.

However, the assumption that we will get 9 points at home is very optimistic. We need a win or two on the road to relieve that home pressure.

[S_D]

Lets look at our Wins-Draws-Losses ...

I think the top two spots are out of our reach ... which leaves New England (33 points in 21 matches) and DC United (32 points in 23 matches).


you realize that they changed the playoff format this season? Top 2 in each conference then the next best 4 teams are wildcard regardless of conference.

So in addition to NE, DC, add Seattle, RSL, Chivas, and Colorado. NE has 2 games in hand so I consider them out of reach as they seem to have the knack of making the playoffs. So assume the worst and TFC is 1 of 5 teams battling for the last 3 spots.

I think who will do the best against the bottom feeders are the critical games that will decide the playoffs:

a) 4 of the 5 teams get to play NYRB
b) Colorado gets a chance to beat up San Jose 2x, and 3 other teams out of the 5 get a chance at them too.
c) We don't get to play KC anymore yet NE, DCU (2x) , Col, Chivas, Seattle do.
d) We don't get to play Dallas yet DCU, RSL, NER, Colorado and Seattle do.

Looking at all of this there are certainly teams in the mix that have more points available against the crap teams of the league. We need the crap teams to actually perform and get some points out of this or TFC is done.

[Roogsy]

I doubted this team before the Montreal game where we won the CCL. And thankfully and happily I was proven wrong.

Taking a lesson from that, I am desperately trying to remain positive. I really am. But I am also a numbers guy, and lightning striking twice in a season just doesn't seem possible.

If I were to put money down, I'd have to bet against Toronto making it into the playoffs.

Gawd I hope I am wrong.

[Redcoe15]

We're up, we're down, we're up, we're down...

We're on such an emotional rollercoaster that I think Canada's Wonderland can make this into their next thrill ride. In this league, strange things can happen. So I'm still holding out hope our side can make the playoffs.

And was anyone brave enough to check out the SSG? I swear, her first picture make it look as if she's sporting a goatee. :ack2:

[Fort York Redcoat]

Now I'm starting to see the benefits of a promoton-relegation system as opposed to a playoff system. With five teams below us in the standings we're in no danger of being relegated ;).

I knew you'd see the light BR!

You're lucky I don't make this my new signature.:)


Two wins v Colorado and people won't be so down.

keepin' the faith and a

[Juanito]

I'm a math man ... the moment you start talking about "mathematically being in it" you're screwed. We're not at that point just yet, however, we are in a "must win" situation in ever game.

Statistically-speaking ... our odds are not awesome.