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nimamalek
08-19-2009, 09:42 AM
looking at this years home and away record so far, we've been averaging approximiately 1.1 pts on the road and 1.75 pts at home. So over the remaining games we can expect about 12. Will that be enough to get us into the playoffs?

mighty_torontofc_2008
08-19-2009, 09:47 AM
not likely...we need 6-7 points from this road trip, anything less then that we have to hope teams we are trying to catch/stay ahead off mess up.

ArmenJBX
08-19-2009, 09:47 AM
Should be. Average points for a pretty comfortable spot is 45. 42 or even 40 would get us in I think.

DangerRed
08-19-2009, 09:48 AM
looking at this years home and away record so far, we've been averaging approximiately 1.1 pts on the road and 1.75 pts at home. So over the remaining games we can expect about 12. Will that be enough to get us into the playoffs?

Cummins has estimated that we need another 12 to 15 points to get in.

MartinUtd
08-19-2009, 09:49 AM
What made it last year? 39? With the extra team added 42 sounds about right, but that would be the bare minimum.

Oldtimer
08-19-2009, 09:49 AM
What, no poll? :lol:

Parkdale
08-19-2009, 09:52 AM
It's all relative.

with NYRB sitting on just 10 points, it means that other teams will be riding higher
than normal because of that. There's a finite number of points to go around,
and when one team is really stinking it up, then it throws off the balance.

and then there's the old expression:
"I don't have to swim faster than the shark, I just have to swim faster than you".
Who knows how the teams that are currently just a bit ahead of us (CHI, LA, SEA)
will do in the rest of the season. The only thing that is for sure is that we need WINS!

Pachuco
08-19-2009, 09:53 AM
Can someone first remind me the rules this year? Is it top two or is it three teams in each division that automatically clinch?

Nodoubtguy
08-19-2009, 09:58 AM
45 would be a good target

nimamalek
08-19-2009, 09:59 AM
Can someone first remind me the rules this year? Is it top two or is it three teams in each division that automatically clinch?

top 2 teams in each conference and then the next 4 teams regardless of conference...i think :)

twistedchinaman
08-19-2009, 10:00 AM
Top two of each conference automatically qualify.
Then next four regardless of conference, with crossovers if necessary.

So if three East and five West teams make it, the fifth West team becomes East #4.

twistedchinaman
08-19-2009, 10:00 AM
Then it's two legged conference semis (no away goals rule), and then a single game conference final, and then a single game MLS Cup championship.

Roogsy
08-19-2009, 10:06 AM
I've stated before that 41 points will probably barely squeak us through. Which meant 14 points in our last 10 games. We have 3 down. We need another 3 wins with a possible 4 losses and 2 draws to comfortably get to 41 points. That would make our final 10 game record a 4-4-2 which is not spectacular but is consistent enough to deserve a playoff spot. Of course, a better record would be even better but I am trying to be reasonable.

Parkdale
08-19-2009, 10:12 AM
....but I am trying to be reasonable.

trying something new for a change? :D

TFCtoMUFC
08-19-2009, 10:14 AM
Chivas has played 19 games which gives them two games in hand over us, we need to beat them essentially.

Roogsy
08-19-2009, 10:15 AM
trying something new for a change? :D

Go start a fight with Seattle supporters you!

Hitcho
08-19-2009, 10:24 AM
and then there's the old expression:
"I don't have to swim faster than the shark, I just have to swim faster than you".

holy shit - that's so mercenary it sends shivers down my spine! can you imagine actually saying that to someone in open water? Or worse, having it said to you?! :o

but yeah, in this scenario it's true in the sense that all we ened to do is sneak into the final berth ahead of whoever else is contending for it.

having said that, i think we should aim higher. we don't want t be stuck playing the east or west conference winner in the first round of the play offs. plus if we can get a bit higher up, and there's an upset in the first round, then we might feasibly get home advantage for the conference final, whereas if we come home in the last play off spot, that's not a possibility.

Two play off games at BMO Field in one season??!!! Naaaaahhhh.....

:scarf::scarf::scarf:

ArmenJBX
08-19-2009, 10:27 AM
It's funny how we're debating points and wins and losses...

I swear Toronto FC is winning the MLS Cup this year, so it doesn't matter how many points we qualified with right?

grizzle
08-19-2009, 10:36 AM
If you feel the bare minimum is enough, then sure... but I think we should aim to get in comfortably. This reminds me of this scene (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJq0uhOM5k8) in office space.

Musse
08-19-2009, 10:42 AM
It's funny how we're debating points and wins and losses...

I swear Toronto FC is winning the MLS Cup this year, so it doesn't matter how many points we qualified with right?


who is your source? :cool:

nimamalek
08-19-2009, 11:10 AM
If you feel the bare minimum is enough, then sure... but I think we should aim to get in comfortably. This reminds me of this scene (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJq0uhOM5k8) in office space.


its nice to dream, but if we're realistic we can assume the same sort of performance the rest of the season. So we're probably looking at 42 pts, maybe 45 pts considering the fact that we are playing the shite bulls and san jose

ArmenJBX
08-19-2009, 12:12 PM
who is your source? :cool:

I travel through time.

We play to the end with Colorado Rapids, and Guevara wins the match for us.

Sorry for the spoilers:scarf::scarf::scarf:

Hitcho
08-19-2009, 12:47 PM
^ don't apologise dude, you've just made my day and I can't wait to watch that winning goal now - woo hoo!!!

EDIT - can you time travel and tell us how long we have to wait for a roof on BMO Field? Cheers.

GlenM
08-19-2009, 12:49 PM
You can never have enough points...however I would set a goal of 14 pts...

The away games are very important, we need to do well there ...

I think we'll get in.

GlenM

ArmenJBX
08-19-2009, 12:56 PM
Roof never goes up. We move to Rogers Center, prices are alright but the feeling isn't the same.

Sucks being a TFC fan in the year 2019.

Although we win the MLS Cup three times..>

Look for a kid named Santiago Neves, he's from Uruguay, comes to TFC in 2015, captain for our squad today, 44 goals in 62 appearances, is requesting a transfer to Athletico Madrid (Second biggest club in the world next to Aston Villa.)

Hitcho
08-19-2009, 12:57 PM
Roof never goes up. We move to Rogers Center, prices are alright but the feeling isn't the same.

Sucks being a TFC fan in the year 2019.

Although we win the MLS Cup three times..>

Look for a kid named Santiago Neves, he's from Uruguay, comes to TFC in 2015, captain for our squad today, 44 goals in 62 appearances, is requesting a transfer to Athletico Madrid (Second biggest club in the world next to Aston Villa.)

and right up to the end, you had me, but then you blew it all apart with something as utterly ridiculous as that! :D

ArmenJBX
08-19-2009, 01:00 PM
Aston Villa is nuts. They have Keirrison, Roberto Magliato, Steven Roberts, Booklyn Beckham and the legend: ENZO ZIDANE 37!

rdroze
08-19-2009, 06:45 PM
According to the analysis at Sports Club Stats, 42 points would currently give us about a 76% chance of making the playoffs:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

Pachuco
08-19-2009, 06:47 PM
top 2 teams in each conference and then the next 4 teams regardless of conference...i think :)

So in that case, I'm not sure 42 points is enough. 3rd place may not get the East a spot this year.

Super
08-19-2009, 10:24 PM
Well, LA beat Chicago tonight, so certainly that should improve our chances (if we beat Chivas on Saturday we'll be only 2 points behind Chicago in second place). If Seattle beats New England tomorrow our chances should go up a bit again as well.

ensco
08-20-2009, 07:46 AM
According to the analysis at Sports Club Stats, 42 points would currently give us about a 76% chance of making the playoffs:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

Per this, 43 points is probably enough, at 41 points it's a 50/50 proposition.

CoachGT
08-20-2009, 09:07 AM
Well, LA beat Chicago tonight, so certainly that should improve our chances (if we beat Chivas on Saturday we'll be only 2 points behind Chicago in second place). If Seattle beats New England tomorrow our chances should go up a bit again as well.

Reading through the odds on the sports stats site yesterday, we would have benefitted marginally more by Chicago winning. But the margin was less than 2%.

Fort York Redcoat
08-20-2009, 11:12 AM
Do we care how we sneak into the playoffs?

Roogsy
08-20-2009, 11:15 AM
Once we are in, obviously we won't care.

But the issue right now is whether we WILL be in...and improving on the chances of actually getting there.

Fort York Redcoat
08-20-2009, 11:19 AM
Still seems like lowering expectations masking as being realistic to prepare for the worst. I'll back off.