We're already in playoff trouble

[jloome]

While we may technically be holding onto the eighth spot right now, the two teams we're just ahead of, Chivas and New England have three -- count 'em, three -- games in hand. That's a six-point swing, given the current gap.

So for practical purposes, we're two games out.

[Super]

Technically we're 9th place with a goal score of -3. Chivas and Colorado, both with 27 points, edge us out with a goal score of +4.

[Smuttynose]

i think it's going to be a LOOOOONG offseason if we don't make playoffs this year...

[Ossington Mental Youth]

Theres going to be alot of anger and i do believe something should be done (and i dont mean fire cummins or whatever the fuck) if we dont see the playoffs

[TFC 420]

Theres going to be alot of anger and i do believe something should be done (and i dont mean fire cummins or whatever the fuck) if we dont see the playoffs
If TFC misses the play-offs, Cummins will be the first to go.

[Shakes McQueen]

If TFC misses the play-offs, Cummins is the first to go.

It probably isn't a fair result, but you're also probably right - Cummins will be the first to go. As an interim coach, his job security is virtually nil. Doubly so, if the rumours of Mo signing an extension are true.

Playoffs are not, I expect major changes to be made, because it's clear that we aren't consistent enough to be a solid championship team. I expect guys like Velez to be gone, no matter what happens. I also suspect things might be put into motion to try and replace guys like Jimmy B on the backline.

And as much as we like him, I also suspect Vitti won't be returning, unless he lights it up down the stretch, or Mo can re-sign him at a cheaper price.

However, I also think it's a bit premature to opine on missing the playoffs. All dire scenarios require us to assume unfavourable results that haven't happened yet. And so far this season, we've been incredibly lucky with favourable results. We are still in control of our destiny, and I won't get too pessimistic until we've screwed that up.

- Scott

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

August 15th...is a vital match!~.....anything less then 3pts at home against DC UNITED and pur playoffs could be doomed!

Dc currently sits at 5th spot! 1 point ahead of us!!!

We can t keep giving up points at home!..4 home games left! we must run out!!! to make playoffs!

[Brooker]

i'm waiting until the 2 Colorado games before i get scared. it's still too early.

[ensco]

We have only a 36% chance right now. Without a 3 or 4 game win streak (not unbeaten streak), we're toast.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

[jabbronies]

If TFC misses the play-offs, Cummins will be the first to go.

I don't think he'd be fired. As an interm, he is really just holding down the fort until someone else comes along, no?
I think he is too vital an asset in player development to be let go. I think once a new head coach is appointed, he'll go back to being an assistant.

[Yohan]

all those points dropped earlier in the season is going to bite us in the ass

[TFC*FAN]

all those points dropped earlier in the season is going to bite us in the ass

Coupled with the 3 leads we've blown in the last 3 league games, from 9 possible points to 2. (the most recent one at least somewhat acceptable given the circumstances).

[Ossington Mental Youth]

Im more bitter about the games recently blown than the ones in the past (spose they are fresh in my mind)

[giambac]

While we may technically be holding onto the eighth spot right now, the two teams we're just ahead of, Chivas and New England have three -- count 'em, three -- games in hand. That's a six-point swing, given the current gap.

So for practical purposes, we're two games out.


Yes and I have the perfect solution:


Give MO a 2 YEAR EXTENSION :facepalm: :facepalm:

[flatpicker]

this thread has officially depressed me for the day.

[boysblue]

The playoffs? Going to be a close run thing.

Actually, if the playoffs are the ultimate aim for this season then perhaps it is best if the boys are not successful in Puerto Rico. Don't think this squad has the depth to advance in the CL while simultaneously making a playoff run. Having said that, I am desperately hoping for another glorious away victory in PR.

[MG42]

We have only a 36% chance right now. Without a 3 or 4 game win streak (not unbeaten streak), we're toast.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC.html

I just don't see a 4 game win streak happeneing with this team.

Our last 5 league games have been L W D L D

[Beach_Red]

How surprising is it that with all this stuff we complain about, 2 points out of a possible 9, late losses, terrible road record and so on that we're even in a playoff race?

Maybe more surprising is that no team is safe right now. Look at Seattle, losing 4-0 to the last place team. They could easily go on a losing streak and be out of it.

There's a lot of season left and this league is one that will always go right to the wire.

[DangerRed]

If we don't shit the bed against DCU on the 15th, we could still pull this out. And the guy above me is right -- this league's stacked for parity and things always go down to the wire.

That said, it's obvious that Shitlumbus and Chitown are both out of reach for us right now and that we're competing against DCU and New England to make sure we stay in it.

[Ossington Mental Youth]

one game at a time then i spose (as suggested correctly in another thread by someone else)

[Roogsy]

We needed 3 points in New England. Period.

Now, not only do we need 3 points against DC, it really is a must-win. One of the last home games AND it's against a conference rival, if this team drops 2 or heaven forbid gives DC 3 points, we're done. It will be a mountain to climb to get that final spot.

[Bars92]

the last game against the Red Bulls will get us in the playoffs

[Shep]

one game at a time then i spose (as suggested correctly in another thread by someone else)

+1

I already get stressed out enough when we lose or even give up a lead. If I start to get worried over this, it's ulcer time.

[billyfly]

http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=12155

TFC have a 36.4% chance to make playoffs

[mmmikey]

While mo is the guy who assembles the team, I'm not so sure we don't have the pieces to make the playoffs. From jc to cummins now, I've always felt we have made bad tactical decisions and the coach has failed to get the best out of the players. It's about putting your team in the best position to win.

Ugh. This is going to be a looooong 5k run after reading this. :(

[Carts]

Don't worry about PR, the 'human road game jynx' aka ME, isnt going...

That alone improves our odds of winning 10-fold...

Carts...

[Roogsy]

http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y178/Roogs/standings-1.jpg

We are currently out of a playoff spot with teams in front of us and behind us all having at least one if not more games in hand. Including New England. We really needed to take 3 from them on Saturday.

I am starting to feel sick. Right now, teams from the east only comprise 3 out of 5 spots. It's obvious that at the very most, only 4 teams will make it, definitely not 5. So we need to be in the top 4 in the east, if not top 3.

There is no room for error or giving up points. 4 points out of a possible 15 is not good enough.

[ensco]

^took me a second. I thought you were talking about Mo Edu.

[Super]

Every game ahead of us is now officially a must-win.

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

Theres going to be alot of anger and i do believe something should be done (and i dont mean fire cummins or whatever the fuck) if we dont see the playoffs


why the team is still improving and were still a young franchise...playoffs were still long shots for a 3 year franchise...too many fans expected too
much from this club this season...give the team some time before demanding playoff action at lest till the 5 th season ends.

[Roogsy]

Being 8th out of 13 is too much expectations? No way Mighty.

Nobody here is asking for a home game (top 4 finish) or even a run deep into the playoffs.

We just want the proof that the team has improved to the point that they can compete. Expecting an 8th place finish does that. 9th indicates there are only 4 teams below us that are worse. For a 3rd year team with the kind of support and revenue it has, that is unacceptable.

[Super Cereal]

why the team is still improving and were still a young franchise...playoffs were still long shots for a 3 year franchise...too many fans expected too
much from this club this season...give the team some time before demanding playoff action at lest till the 5 th season ends.

That's fucking stupid. Still young? Playoffs in the third season is not too fucking soon. Fifth season? Are you joking?

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

Being 8th out of 13 is too much expectations? No way Mighty.

Nobody here is asking for a home game (top 4 finish) or even a run deep into the playoffs.

We just want the proof that the team has improved to the point that they can compete. Expecting an 8th place finish does that. 9th indicates there are only 4 teams below us that are worse. For a 3rd year team with the kind of support and revenue it has, that is unacceptable.


the last couple of season we were already out of contention at this point in the season...with the lineup we got anywhere from 4 to 7th would be alright...our team has improved but we are not the strongest team in the league..yet.lets just give Mo the time to finish building what he started before calling for heads to roll..not you but others..Chris Cummings should be back next season as he has done ok, with what little he has to work with. MO..he has drafted well and made great deals...Serioux, im all for patience in building the club , instead of win now or else mentality.

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

That's fucking stupid. Still young? Playoffs in the third season is not too fucking soon. Fifth season? Are you joking?


you go start a franchise and see where you would be in 3 years...i bet it would be bottom of the league...you CANNOT building a contender overnight and even harder in a salary cap league like MLS..it takes time for the playoffs get used to it!!

[Roogsy]

That concept does not apply in MLS Mighty. The frustrating "parity" we see in this leagues gives us a chance any year of existance regardless if it's our 3rd or 23rd. If by the 3rd season we are not in the playoffs, it's a sign of something having gone amiss. Seattle is definitely going to make it this year. And of course, there is the tired example of Chicago having won it in their first year. I don't think there is any team in the league that has not seen the playoffs except for us and San Jose, and even then, San Jose's previous existance did and won the cup. Leaving us alone.

That is not acceptable. Playoffs this year or it's a failure. Especially with us likely going down in the CCL this week.

[Super]

Roll the dice. MLS parity makes it pretty random who makes the play-offs and who doesn't.

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

Agreed super..

The parity in this league is second to none! You could go on a 3 game winning streak and be in first...then lose 3 and be out of a playoff spot!....THats how close this league is!

If we dont make it...its not because our lineup is that bad....ITs the parity and thats a good thing!....In the end a good team will not make it! hopefully its not us!

NOt sure why most here do not get that!~

[Roogsy]

Roll the dice. MLS parity makes it pretty random who makes the play-offs and who doesn't.

I disagree. MLS parity means teams will be close in points and on any given day, can beat each other.

But that still doesn't justify giving up more goals than any other team in the final 15 minutes.

That doesn't mean a good team wouldn't be able to defend set pieces.

That doesn't mean a good team wouldn't know how to score off of set pieces.

Address these (and other points) and at the very least we give ourselves a shot to at least overcome some of the effects of parity.

Parity is a condition, it's not an excuse.

The proof is in the well run clubs like Houston (consistently in the playoffs and in the finals) and Chicago (very consistent). DC United as well although the last couple of years they have struggled, they are the example of consistency in the league.

[Dirk Diggler]

I disagree. MLS parity means teams will be close in points and on any given day, can beat each other.

But that still doesn't justify giving up more goals than any other team in the final 15 minutes.

That doesn't mean a good team wouldn't be able to defend set pieces.

That doesn't mean a good team wouldn't know how to score off of set pieces.

Address these (and other points) and at the very least we give ourselves a shot to at least overcome some of the effects of parity.

Parity is a condition, it's not an excuse.

The proof is in the well run clubs like Houston (consistently in the playoffs and in the finals) and Chicago (very consistent).

Completely agree. Enough with this "five year plan" bull shit. We've had every chance to improve our squad and make the playoffs in the past 3 years. Missing the playoffs 3 straight years is going to be a fucking disgrace. People need to stop giving examples of other leagues with 30 teams and completely different salary systems. In those leagues, no one expects an expansion team to succeed ... but the MLS is a completely different beast.

[Roogsy]

I have no idea what a "5 year plan" is.

5 years to what? Playoffs? Cup finals? The Cup itself?

That BS was dished out and people ate it up. I don't care about a 5 year plan, I want to see evidence of improvement each year. The hard evidence this year is playoffs, not "hey we have 3 more points than last year".

I don't think anyone thinks it takes 5 years to get to the playoffs. And if it does take us that long, we've done something wrong for sure.

What does that mean, it will take 12 years just to make it to the Cup final let alone win it? Is anyone here ok with that?

[RPB_RED_NATION_RPB]

I have no idea what a "5 year plan" is.

5 years to what? Playoffs? Cup finals? The Cup itself?

That BS was dished out and people ate it up. I don't care about a 5 year plan, I want to see evidence of improvement each year. The hard evidence this year is playoffs, not "hey we have 3 more points than last year".

I don't think anyone thinks it takes 5 years to get to the playoffs. And if it does take us that long, we've done something wrong for sure.

What does that mean, it will take 12 years just to make it to the Cup final let alone win it? Is anyone here ok with that?


I literly be gutted if we dont make a run this season.....BUt we cant contiue to give up important points at home...Cant understand why we cant bury teams at home!...it could be a huge factor on not making the Playoffs!

no less then 12 points in our next 4 home games! :)

[TFC USA]

The 5 year plan is like the 12 step plan.

It sounds like a good idea before you realize it's a total fucking bullshit waste of time.

Playoffs or bust this year.

[Dirk Diggler]

Yeah the 5 year plan is a textbook sports managment bull shit that various GMs spurt out because it gives them tremendous job security. If the team manages to make the playoffs before 5 years, everyone will think that the management has been extra efficient and will praise them endlessly. If the team fails to do so within that time frame ... whatever ... even if they get fired, they still managed to latch onto the job for 5 years. This is exactly how Riccardi has managed to be the GM of the Blue Jays for 8 years now.

[Shep]

The 5 year plan is like the 12 step plan.

It sounds like a good idea before you realize it's a total fucking bullshit waste of time.

Playoffs or bust this year.

Or bust? bust what?

[TFC USA]

Umm...the bust of Megan Fox? :D

[Bars92]

All the friendlies has cost us at least 2 points, which, if we do miss the playoffs, it won't be by much more than that. I think this squad is truly an MLS playoff team at the very least.

[Beach_Red]

Roll the dice. MLS parity makes it pretty random who makes the play-offs and who doesn't.

I haven't been following MLS too long, but the type of parity imposed here doesn't make it random at all. It gives an edge to management that can manipulate the rules to its advantage - allocation money, drafting, length of contracts offered to players, balance of young players to more experienced players and so on.

Some people prefer a league where the richest owners jus go out and buy the best players. I don't. I prefer all teams having the same chance and seeing which ones make it work the best. Over the years better teams emerge.

This idea that the NFL is some kind of socialist system is simplistic and silly. In a pure capitalist system you don't need competition (in fact it's usually only there bcause a government mandates it) but for a sports league to survive you actually need other teams. The NFL is pretty damned capitalist when it comes to crushing every other league that comes along. They know who they're competing with.

There's a lot of movement in the standings in the first half of the MLS season but from here on in you're going to see the better assembled teams get to and stay at the top.

TFC still has too many inexperienced players to be one of those teams right now but we can till make the playoffs and maybe go on a run like NY did last year.

And if the players that are already under contract for next year continue to get better, TFC will be one of the best teams in the league.

[Super]

I disagree. MLS parity means teams will be close in points and on any given day, can beat each other.

That's my point: it's random. Roll the dice. I think there is a lot of potential in this league, but as a TFC supporter I obviously would like to see our team benefit from some of the cash we pour into the club. I would like to see a bit more colour and flair and uniqueness to clubs in the league, and the only way to do that is to allow clubs that have the financial means to grow beyond their current level - but at the same time it would have to be done responsibly to keep the league from suffering the fate of the now defunct NA leagues.

The MLS right now have no big or small clubs. They're all the same. I would love to see that change in the future. There needs to be some predictability to the game for there to be surprises. Right now it's just random. Not having a go at the league or anything, I love the fact that the MLS is here for all of us to enjoy. But moving forward I would love a bit of a change if possible. That's all.

[Super]

Some people prefer a league where the richest owners jus go out and buy the best players. I don't. I prefer all teams having the same chance and seeing which ones make it work the best. Over the years better teams emerge.

I agree to an extend. I don't want to see rich owners buy up all talent and rule this league till the end of time. What I would like to see is that our money, spent at BMO, goes towards our team. That's all. The salary cap is set based on revenue by each individual club. You'd then have some huge clubs, some big ones, some medium, and then some small ones. You'd still have surprise results, and you'd have predictable results. The games would be very different - and not just the same as we see now. No more random results. And yes, I understand your point that management is what changes the club - but really, that means Mo = TFC? I'd like to think there is more to it than that.

Salary cap based on income + maybe a luxury tax imposed on clubs spending beyond 3 million - to go towards the poorer clubs. This way the overall level of the league will improve, and that can't really be a bad thing for any of us.

[Pookie]

^ at what point though does Toronto cease to be considered a "Big spender"?

The Jays had the biggest payroll in baseball in 1993. Then the dollar tanked revenues in placed like NY and Boston took off. We now sit 16th.

The Raptors play in a salary cap world yet are 14th overall in spending.

We take in CDN$ and spend in US$.

I'd be careful what we wish for.

[Beach_Red]

I agree to an extend. I don't want to see rich owners buy up all talent and rule this league till the end of time. What I would like to see is that our money, spent at BMO, goes towards our team. That's all. The salary cap is set based on revenue by each individual club. You'd then have some huge clubs, some big ones, some medium, and then some small ones. You'd still have surprise results, and you'd have predictable results. The games would be very different - and not just the same as we see now. No more random results. And yes, I understand your point that management is what changes the club - but really, that means Mo = TFC? I'd like to think there is more to it than that.

Salary cap based on income + maybe a luxury tax imposed on clubs spending beyond 3 million - to go towards the poorer clubs. This way the overall level of the league will improve, and that can't really be a bad thing for any of us.

Yeah, and I agree with you, too, that money spent by TFC fans should be reinvested in the team. That's what should set the cap. I think once there are 20 teams in profit, that will be the case. Some will emerge as bigger than others, but they may not stay that way forever. If it does become like the NFL there will be the Pittsburghs and the Detroits, there will be a fairly big range.

Most businesses fail because they over-extend too soon. I guess some may fail because they wait too long. I hope MLS gets it right.

And I do think there's more to it than the manager = the team. The players have a huge amount to do with it. Look how many players have come here either to trial or even played a few games and then decided it wasn't for them (sure, a few even realize it isn't for them and sta anyway, but we're working on that). Those that do decide to stay know the limitations of the league and what they can do within it. In that way, more players of different abilities can have more impact on their team.

Yes, it makes it more difficult that waiting to see which players develop into the best and then buying them, but it also makes it interesting.

[ensco]

People are getting confused about the difference between (i) parity and (ii) randomness.

The league has parity, but the outcomes are far from random, in MLS.

Over time, there has been a clear elite group of clubs (historically DCU, NE, Houston/SJv1, Chicago), and a group of teams than never get it together (Dallas, Colorado, NY). The Galaxy were for years in the first group, pre-Beckham. TFC are rapidly in danger of joining the latter group.

You want to win in this league? You pay whatever it takes to pry Dominic Kinnear or Steve Nicol out of their current positions.

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

That concept does not apply in MLS Mighty. The frustrating "parity" we see in this leagues gives us a chance any year of existance regardless if it's our 3rd or 23rd. If by the 3rd season we are not in the playoffs, it's a sign of something having gone amiss. Seattle is definitely going to make it this year. And of course, there is the tired example of Chicago having won it in their first year. I don't think there is any team in the league that has not seen the playoffs except for us and San Jose, and even then, San Jose's previous existance did and won the cup. Leaving us alone.

That is not acceptable. Playoffs this year or it's a failure. Especially with us likely going down in the CCL this week.


It took Real Salt Lake till their 4th season to make it to the playoffs and
we should be at least that patient..i dont want to see a playoff appearence this year only to miss out on the next two years. TFC were
not ready for the CCL, the Islanders were the better team at BMO and knew how to defend..something the Reds fail to do week in and week out.
Seattle can get good players going to their city while we cant even get good canadians to come here JDG, im a little more pateint then most fans here...next year i will expect playoff action, although i will be disappointed if we dont make it this year,but it wasn't really expected.

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

People are getting confused about the difference between (i) parity and (ii) randomness.

The league has parity, but the outcomes are far from random, in MLS.

Over time, there has been a clear elite group of clubs (historically DCU, NE, Houston/SJv1, Chicago), and a group of teams than never get it together (Dallas, Colorado, NY). The Galaxy were for years in the first group, pre-Beckham. TFC are rapidly in danger of joining the latter group.

You want to win in this league? You pay whatever it takes to pry Dominic Kinnear or Steve Nicol out of their current positions.


Steve Nicol?? he has lost the MLS cup everytime...he the Buffalo Bills of managers.. Kinnear is a differnt story..he can win the bug one!!

[Roogsy]

RSL also never received the supporter TFC has.

RSL didn't even play in their own stadium until halfway this season.

RSL was behind in every single way.

And the fact that RSL didn't make the playoffs when there were even less teams than when Toronto came into the league speaks to their incompetence.

RSL SHOULD NOT be an example we praise nor follow. They did it wrong.

And if we don't make it this year, there is no real reason why we should expect to make it next year. It's not like the difference between the players next year and what we have this year would be massively different. At this point it would obviously be management that is the problem, not the players.

Sorry Mighty, I don't follow the logic you employ.

[twistedchinaman]

Three seasons without some sort of tangible, home league success seems like...well, I don't know. Football clubs started before any sort of interborder competition -- and to be honest we should focus domestically before we focus internationally.

[TFC USA]

Ummm....Seattle? 1st year? Doing well? Check.

Chivas USA? In their 2nd year? Biggest turnaround in MLS history? Check? Playoffs? Check?


Toronto FC? In their 3rd year? Not in the playoffs if the season were to end today? Mediocre home record in those 3 years? 1 for 6 on penalties? VELEZ?!!!


Sorry man but you buy bullshit way too easily.

[Beach_Red]

You want to win in this league? You pay whatever it takes to pry Dominic Kinnear or Steve Nicol out of their current positions.

I know people here love the guy, but he hasn't won anything. Would we really be happy going 0-4 in championship games? I can't imagine if Mo was 0-4 many people here being happy with him still running the team.

Why didn't you say Sigi Schmidt and Kinnear?

[Shakes McQueen]

Ummm....Seattle? 1st year? Doing well? Check.

Chivas USA? In their 2nd year? Biggest turnaround in MLS history? Check? Playoffs? Check?


Toronto FC? In their 3rd year? Not in the playoffs if the season were to end today? Mediocre home record in those 3 years? 1 for 6 on penalties? VELEZ?!!!


Sorry man but you buy bullshit way too easily.

The Chivas turnaround is pretty amazing, and I don't necessarily disagree with you.

However, Seattle is a terrible metric, as they have had lots of things in their favour. They lucked out in getting Montero, they had Kasey Keller wanting to play for them specifically, they had a USL side with seven players who made the changeover to MLS with them, and they have Freddie Ljungberg.

I remember last year everyone here pointed to San Jose as proof that an expansion team should be better than we were, because of how good the Quakes were after Huckerby joined them. And look at them now.

If we don't make the playoffs this season, then serious changes need to be made - maybe a GM change, maybe a coaching change, definitely some player changes. Three years of constant personnel changes is long enough to demand a modicum of "success" - even if it means just limping into the post-season.

- Scott

[TFC USA]

Frank Yallop has sucked ass since 2003. :D

They did have a lot of things in their favor, but good management made it happen.

[Shakes McQueen]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot - they also had Sigi Schmid, one of the best coaches in MLS, wanting to coach them specifically.

I don't deny Seattle appears to be very well managed, but I also suspect a lot of their good fortune has made them look "better" than they probably realistically are.

- Scott

[ensco]

I know people here love the guy, but he hasn't won anything. Would we really be happy going 0-4 in championship games? I can't imagine if Mo was 0-4 many people here being happy with him still running the team.

Why didn't you say Sigi Schmidt and Kinnear?

Maybe it's just me, but Schmid strikes me as a blowhard. I know his record is great.

Re Nicol, his teams make the playoffs every year. His teams win playoff games every year (mostly). On the day, any team can win or lose, and that's why I don't care about his record in the final. That's a crapshoot. But his teams are deep in the hunt each and every year.

[Beach_Red]

Maybe it's just me, but Schmid strikes me as a blowhard. I know his record is great.

Re Nicol, his teams make the playoffs every year. His teams win playoff games every year (mostly). On the day, any team can win or lose, and that's why I don't care about his record in the final. That's a crapshoot. But his teams are deep in the hunt each and every year.


I just can't imagine very many people on this board being happy if our current management got us into the playoffs every year but went 0-4 in Championship games.

[ensco]

I just can't imagine very many people on this board being happy if our current management got us into the playoffs every year but went 0-4 in Championship games.

You're right. This is why Nicol might be available!

But here's his regular season, and playoff, record over his 7 seasons in NE. It's unbelievable. How could anyone not be impressed by this guy?

2002 - 1st, East - Final
2003 - 2nd, East - Semifinals
2004 - 4th, East - Semifinals
2005 - 1st, East - Final
2006 - 2nd, East - Final
2007 - 2nd, East - Final
2008 - 3rd, East - Quarterfinals (also Superliga champions)

[TFCmatty]

if we don't consistently get results in every one of our upcoming matches............outside looking in again. disappointing, but things have been looking better this year.

[Beach_Red]

You're right. This is why Nicol might be available!

But here's his regular season, and playoff, record over his 7 seasons in NE. It's unbelievable. How could anyone not be impressed by this guy?

2002 - 1st, East - Final
2003 - 2nd, East - Semifinals
2004 - 4th, East - Semifinals
2005 - 1st, East - Final
2006 - 2nd, East - Final
2007 - 2nd, East - Final
2008 - 3rd, East - Quarterfinals (also Superliga champions)


Yeah, I was a fan of Marv Levy, too. But I preferred Chuck Knoll.

All I'm saying is you give that record to Mo in Toronto an people here would be going crazy, saying, "Can't win the big one, get rid of him."

[Pachuco]

Oh yeah, I almost forgot - they also had Sigi Schmid, one of the best coaches in MLS, wanting to coach them specifically.

I don't deny Seattle appears to be very well managed, but I also suspect a lot of their good fortune has made them look "better" than they probably realistically are.

- Scott

Shakes give me a break. You've basically just taken all of Seattle's positives and claim they are good fortune. So then basically Seattle has done nothing right, they simply sat back and shit just happened for them. Sorry, I'm not following your argument.

You wanna talk good fortune? how about the fact that Dero wanted to play for us? would you seriously attribute that to good fortune to? that's ridicolous. He wants to play for us because of the RIGHT things this club has done. Just like Sigi and the players want to be in Seattle because they know they have a good thing going there.

They didn't luck out with Montero, or Ljundberg, or Sigi or their fans. They are an organization that's well put together and people and coaches WANT to be part of an organization like that. There's no luck in any of it and TFC only wishes they could've put a team like that together in their first year.

[giambac]

Shakes give me a break. You've basically just taken all of Seattle's positives and claim they are good fortune. So then basically Seattle has done nothing right, they simply sat back and shit just happened for them. Sorry, I'm not following your argument.

You wanna talk good fortune? how about the fact that Dero wanted to play for us? would you seriously attribute that to good fortune to? that's ridicolous. He wants to play for us because of the RIGHT things this club has done. Just like Sigi and the players want to be in Seattle because they know they have a good thing going there.

They didn't luck out with Montero, or Ljundberg, or Sigi or their fans. They are an organization that's well put together and people and coaches WANT to be part of an organization like that. There's no luck in any of it and TFC only wishes they could've put a team like that together in their first year.


Well said.

[rocker]

Sigi Schmidt has proven himself.. but he's no miracle worker.. people keep forgetting his first two years at Columbus = ZERO playoff appearances.

[DangerRed]

You want an example of how random and crazy the MLS is? If the two Marvell Wynne handballs -- just a pair of one-second incidents -- never happened, we'd be firmly among the teams headed to the playoffs right now.

It's impossible to call. Let's have this conversation five games from now.

Yes, we need to pull out at least four or five wins from the next 10 games if we're even going to think about the playoffs, but such is life.

[Roogsy]

I mentioned this in another thread.


The problem is that we definitely need 40 points, if not more to make the playoffs.

The last 5 games we've taken 4points. With that form, we'd have 8 points in the last 10 games of the season meaning we would match the same result as last season of 35 points.

We need 14 points in the last 10 games of the season to make 41 points. That means we need 4 wins in the next 10 games period, nothing less or we are out.

Can we take 4 games out of our next 10??? We really haven't shown that ability this season.

That's the math folks.

[Beach_Red]

Sigi Schmidt has proven himself.. but he's no miracle worker.. people keep forgetting his first two years at Columbus = ZERO playoff appearances.


Maybe he had a 5 year plan...






;)

[__wowza]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html

this is scarier.

[DangerRed]

Or this, from the 24th Minute:

Monday, August 3, 2009

Home/away adjusted final standings projections for Aug 3. (http://www.24thminute.com/2009/08/homeaway-adjusted-final-standings.html)


The projected final standings (adjusted for home and away records) as of Aug 3 are:

East
Chicago** – 51
Columbus** – 50
New England* - 46
DC United* - 44
Toronto – 40
Kansas City – 35
New York – 16

West

Houston** - 53
Galaxy** - 49
Chivas* - 47
Seattle# - 42
Colorado# - 42
SLC – 38
Dallas – 31
San Jose – 26

** Automatic playoff spot
* wildcard playoff spot
# tied for final wildcard spot, tiebreaker to determine

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

so we would miss out by 2 points? but thank god the games are actually played and not projected...we need a win starting with DC at Home and go from there.

[Roogsy]

Mighty, that's insane. In the MLS, it should NOT take you 5 seasons to get to the playoffs. That is a sign of incompetence.

[DangerRed]

so we would miss out by 2 points? but thank god the games are actually played and not projected...we need a win starting with DC at Home and go from there.

Dude, we have 27 points with 10 games to go. To even get to 40, we'd need 4 wins and a draw. To make the playoffs, working off of these projections, we'd need six wins.

That is ONE LESS than the amount of wins we've had in the past 20 GAMES. In other words, for us to succeed, we would effectively have to double our effectiveness.

That's a tall ask.

Puff, puff, and pass the shit you're smoking. We're not even close right now and unless things change, it'll stay that way.

[trane]

Mighty, that's insane. In the MLS, it should NOT take you 5 seasons to get to the playoffs. That is a sign of incompetence.

Agreed.

I cannot disagree with Jloome, all I have to add, that right now I believe that we are good enought to make the playoff, however, the end of the Carver era cost us big, in point dropped at home. Many of us were calling the alarm and we were shouted down.

It will be disapointed if we do not make it, the team under Cummins for the most part [ exceptions like keeping Barret in the game on Saturday], has proven itself worthy.

[S_D]

People are getting confused about the difference between (i) parity and (ii) randomness.

The league has parity, but the outcomes are far from random, in MLS.

Over time, there has been a clear elite group of clubs (historically DCU, NE, Houston/SJv1, Chicago), and a group of teams than never get it together (Dallas, Colorado, NY). The Galaxy were for years in the first group, pre-Beckham. TFC are rapidly in danger of joining the latter group.

You want to win in this league? You pay whatever it takes to pry Dominic Kinnear or Steve Nicol out of their current positions.

May have a chance at Nicol, but I couldn't see Kinnear being pried. If I was the owner I would pay him whatever he wants to stay, and I don't think many would argue with that.

I would also add Preki (Chivas) to this list. His team seems to be doing quite well, but more importantly I see a team that works well together and knows how to play the posession game.

I am on the fence with Cummins. His subbing has been questionable and seeing what happens on the field and reacting to it seems a bit slow. Not sure if this is just due to a lack of experience or inability. We will just have to wait and see. But lets be real here, it isn't just him. A smaller roster (Mo) friendlies (FO) have all contributed to Cummins being limited as to who he can play and when.

Wheeler in the sun had a decent article yesterday. They all just need to get their shit together and decide what they want. More money (Wheeler has claimed TFC is going to make 3 mill with the RM game) or a more stable/complete roster.

If the cash is being reinvested and going towards say grass at BMO or expansion of the stadium, and this contributes to the lonterm viability of the franchise and it's ability to attract better players, is it worth missing the playoffs this season? Debateable, hated by the right now people, loved by those that are willing to wait until the 5th season.

[Oldtimer]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS/East/TorontoFC_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html

this is scarier.

Don't take it too seriously. The algorithms that the site uses are way too simplistic and depend mostly on random chance.

A month or so ago, that site said that the Jays had a 98% of getting into the post-season. Now look at them.

It gets accurate when there are 2-3 games left. However, we wouldn't need that site to tell us the situation at that point.

[jloome]

Shakes give me a break. You've basically just taken all of Seattle's positives and claim they are good fortune. So then basically Seattle has done nothing right, they simply sat back and shit just happened for them. Sorry, I'm not following your argument.

You wanna talk good fortune? how about the fact that Dero wanted to play for us? would you seriously attribute that to good fortune to? that's ridicolous. He wants to play for us because of the RIGHT things this club has done. Just like Sigi and the players want to be in Seattle because they know they have a good thing going there.

They didn't luck out with Montero, or Ljundberg, or Sigi or their fans. They are an organization that's well put together and people and coaches WANT to be part of an organization like that. There's no luck in any of it and TFC only wishes they could've put a team like that together in their first year.

Mostly true. They did luck out with Montero, who was discovered and approached by league scouts, not Seattle scouts, and had his rights assigned to Seattle, not made generally available to all teams in the league.

They didn't luck out with Ljunberg, they took a calculated risk and it paid off.

[jloome]

While mo is the guy who assembles the team, I'm not so sure we don't have the pieces to make the playoffs. From jc to cummins now, I've always felt we have made bad tactical decisions and the coach has failed to get the best out of the players. It's about putting your team in the best position to win.

Ugh. This is going to be a looooong 5k run after reading this. :(

Maybe. But the reality is that, two years after even the most casual fan identified the problem, we still don't seem to have a backline leader who's also a dominant player.

That's very squarely on Mo. WE're far and away the worst team in the league when it comes to giving up goals in the final 15 minutes, and in fact about a third of all our goals against came in the period when our defense should've been locking it down.

So we know what the key issue is defensively: personnel. Mo's probably telling the front office that this year is part of a "bigger plan" and that the young kids coming up will guarantee us titles for years, with this year already effectively written off.

[Beach_Red]

^ More than likely the FO wants to see playoffs this year. Probably not more than the first round, but at least that.

[P-NUTZ]

we've been in trouble since blowing the houston 3pts on the 18th. That may be the day we look back on as the last warning call. Nothing is impossible tho...

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

Mighty, that's insane. In the MLS, it should NOT take you 5 seasons to get to the playoffs. That is a sign of incompetence.

we didnt have the setup that say Seattle had, when entering the league,
so the playoffs will take a little longer for TFC, it might happen this season, more likely the next...It does matter that you cant build a contender over night...it takes time..do you want a playoff team just for the sake of playoff action only to be hammered, or wait another season for a team that might make a bit of noise in the post season?

[TFC USA]

Fucking explain Chivas USA, mighty. 2nd year after a shit record they made it to the playoffs and have been solid since.

It's the fucking MLS where the Cup runner-ups are on pace for the worst record ever.