The Complete Canadian Championship scenerio calculation

[Redpunkfiddle]

With credit to Twistedchinaman, who laid the foundation in one of the post game threads...

Current standings: Toronto 6
Montreal 0
Vancouver 0

If Vancouver and Montreal draw both their matches, we win.
If they split wins in their matches, we only need a draw in either of our final 2 games.

If one team manages a win and a draw, that team will have 4 points and needs to beat us. If that happens, then we probably need to WIN against the other team. A draw likely won't hack it, and here is where the comment about goal differentiation biting us in the backside is made true...

We are +2 in goal diff. now. If our opponent winds up with 4 points, he'll have a minimum 0 difference (probably more). If they beat us, then that leaves them with at least +1 and us with +1. A draw leaves us both with 7 points, and they go through on goal diff or total goals (maybe away goals).

Thus- if Vancouver had the 4 points, they need to beat us on June 2nd otherwise its all over. If we lose... Vancouver 7
Toronto 6
Montreal 1

Then we would probably need to win in Montreal, or else Vancouver wins the NCC.

If Montreal had the 4 points, then we could end it by beating Vancouver on the 2nd. If we draw or lose... then Montreal wins the NCC only by beating us in Montreal.

If one team manages to get 6 points, we'd have to avoid losing to them (Goal diff would likely screw us even with a win in the other game ). If we draw and are at 7 pts each, then we'd still likely need a point in the other match to be safe.

Math is fun, no?

Or you could just actually watch the damn matches when they happen....

EDITED for BONEHEADED MISCALCULATION

[Kaz]

Watching Charleston play Montreal right now, it looks like Vancouver is going to come away with 6 points, in their games with Montreal which means we have to beat Vancouver.
Basically we need to go undefeated to make it through.

Our lack of finishing may be the end of us if it comes to goal differential

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

Goal difference will not matter, we will win out two remaining games.

[Parkdale]

Math is fun, no?

no.

but I'm glad you summed it up for us. cheers!

[Redpunkfiddle]

Watching Charleston play Montreal right now, it looks like Vancouver is going to come away with 6 points, in their games with Montreal which means we have to beat Vancouver.
Basically we need to go undefeated to make it through.

Our lack of finishing may be the end of us if it comes to goal differential

We could draw the 6 pt team, and still win the NCC with a draw against the other team. But for sure, there are some time bombs waiting due to not scoring more goals..

[crofty]

technically if our opponent gets 4 points out of their next 2 matches they have a minimum of a 0 goal differential not +1. they are all ready at -1, the tie meaning they are still at -1, they win by 1, they are at 0....not that it matters that much in the grand scheme of things...

[Redpunkfiddle]

technically if our opponent gets 4 points out of their next 2 matches they have a minimum of a 0 goal differential not +1. they are all ready at -1, the tie meaning they are still at -1, they win by 1, they are at 0....not that it matters that much in the grand scheme of things...

Aw, crap. That changes everything- at least in the 4 point opponent scenerios. It means that total goals, and perhaps away goals could come into effect if we are tied on points.

Math is NOT fun. I cleaned up the post as best as possible.

[Vancity RED]

The moral of this story: keep the pedal to the metal and keep control of our own destiny.

[Kaz]

We could draw the 6 pt team, and still win the NCC with a draw against the other team. But for sure, there are some time bombs waiting due to not scoring more goals..

Only if Vancouver wins it's games by 2 goals total, and it's likely they will finish better then we did this week.

So we really need to go with the we need to beat Vancouver, and honestly if we don't beat Montreal too, we don't deserve the spot, we can get it with out it ;)

[Nerepis]

Man my head is spinning, maybe the Reds could just hit the ball into the back of the net.

sw8ZL_gcTSM

[ExiledRed]

Basically, we win with 8 points out of 12 (because we've beaten both teams for the first six)

if we finish at 9 points, we must have lost a game and another team can have 9 points too so it could come down to GD.

if any team gets 10-12 points they win, and we are the only ones who can achieve that now.

[Mojo]

Heres a more detailed and likely scenario:

JUST FUCKING WIN.

[ensco]

What we've done is hold serve. Not bad. If everyone wins their home games, then it's down to goal differential.

A win in one of the two games and we're almost certainly through.

Two draws and we're through.

A draw in one of the two games is likely (but not necessarily) enough to get us through.

Two losses and it'll be tricky - given the fact we're only +2 on goals, we'll probably go out.

[Roogsy]

I know I am being demanding, but I would love them to win all their games. It would embarrass the crap out of both Vancouver and Montreal and shove that championship last year right down their throats.

[LucaGol]

There are many scenarios.

It's too early for these types of probabilistic machinations.

[ExiledRed]

12 points should be the goal.

I actually think we're playing a better game away, and that we'll score more in the away fixtures.

[ensco]

12 points should be the goal.

I actually think we're playing a better game away, and that we'll score more in the away fixtures.

We should be pounding these teams. They're terrible. They didn't look at all like the clubs we saw last year.

[stugautz]

Just win our next two games and don't give two shits about what else happens.

[Redpunkfiddle]

Vancouver at Montreal is being streamed online by Radio-Canada, tonight 8pm
http://www.radio-canada.ca/sports/

[Fort York Redcoat]

There are many scenarios.

It's too early for these types of probabilistic machinations.

Never to early for machination!:flare:

[Lucky Strike]

All information can be found here, including the tie-breakers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Canadian_Championship

[BuSaPuNk]

I just want to see us lift the Voyagers Cup in Montreal in person!!! Win them all fuck the scenerios!!

[yellowfellow]

What happens if MTL and VAN draw both times and we win in VAN? We will lift the Voyagers Cup in Vancouver?

I of course want to see it in Montreal.

[menefreghista]

What happens if MTL and VAN draw both times

Than the tournament is over and we win before we even play our next game. :D

[yellowfellow]

Okay, so I am curious if we will lift the cup in Vancouver or in Montreal?

[Nuvinho]

that would be funny if both Van/Mtl draw both games!!!!........hahaha!!!!

[mastermixer]

Since I will be in Vancouver and have tickets to the game on June 2, I would hope they lift the trophy then (if we win).

[GhostPK]

The real Math isnt baised on table point percentages... but in statistics. What is the likely hood of us raising the NCC Trophy in Vancouver over the likely hood that we raise the NCC trophy in Montreal. This is the true math to consider.

WEST COAST REDS

[craigtfc]

If the standing at the end is tied does it come down to goal differential?
If so we better get a stirker. NOW!

[tlear]

win in Vancouver then play subs/academy players in Montreal :)

[Ryan1984]

Whitecaps won the game tonight 2-0

[twistedchinaman]

So this makes it:

TFC 2-0-0 = 6 (+2)
VAN 1-0-1 = 3 (+1)
MTL 0-0-2 = 0 (-3)

Right now:
- Montreal needs nothing else but a win to stay alive. Lose or draw and they're good as if not out.
- Vancouver winning again next week will draw us even with them, save goal differential.

Simply put:

- Vancouver wins, we need just to win or draw them during our match with them. If we lose, we have to beat Montreal AND overcome goal differential if applicable.
- Montreal wins, then yes a single point should see us through.

I think that's right? But still -- let's hope Cummins and the boys aren't going for the minimalist approach. Destroy and conquer!

[Redpunkfiddle]

So this makes it:

TFC 2-0-0 = 6 (+2)
VAN 1-0-1 = 3 (+1)
MTL 0-0-2 = 0 (-3)

Right now:
- Montreal needs nothing else but a win to stay alive. Lose or draw and they're good as if not out.
- Vancouver winning again next week will draw us even with them, save goal differential.

Simply put:

- Vancouver wins, we need just to win or draw them during our match with them. If we lose, we have to beat Montreal AND overcome goal differential if applicable.
- Montreal wins, then yes a single point should see us through.

I think that's right? But still -- let's hope Cummins and the boys aren't going for the minimalist approach. Destroy and conquer!

There are still a few more possibilities open that were outlined in the first page.. including if they draw next week.

What is all but sure is that Montreal is toast.

[twistedchinaman]

There are still a few more possibilities open that were outlined in the first page.. including if they draw next week.

What is all but sure is that Montreal is toast.


If they draw...then Montreal is toast. Then we definitely just need a win or a draw against 2nd place to secure it.

[CoachGT]

The only way that we should secure it is to win both away. Then nothing else matters!

[Fort York Redcoat]

Quick prediction. Montreal will lose every game left but lose to Vancouver by a bigger total margin. It will come down to the game in Vancouver and Toronto must beat them and turn the point differential meaningless!

[Oldtimer]

Quick prediction. Montreal will lose every game left but lose to Vancouver by a bigger total margin. It will come down to the game in Vancouver and Toronto must beat them and turn the point differential meaningless!

... and this brings up the scenario that Cummins worried about, that winning by just 1 goal each game could "bite us" in the end.

We are level on goal differential at this point, so if we tie Montreal and lose to Vancouver, and Vancouver beats Montreal, we will be level on points, but will lose on goal differential.

So, as you say, the Vancouver game will be a "must win." Beat Vancouver, and the Voyageurs Cup is ours.

[Lucky Strike]

So this makes it:

TFC 2-0-0 = 6 (+2)
VAN 1-0-1 = 3 (+2)
MTL 0-0-2 = 0 (-3)

Right now:
- Montreal needs nothing else but a win to stay alive. Lose or draw and they're good as if not out.
- Vancouver winning again next week will draw us even with them, save goal differential.

Simply put:

- Vancouver wins, we need just to win or draw them during our match with them. If we lose, we have to beat Montreal AND overcome goal differential if applicable.
- Montreal wins, then yes a single point should see us through.

I think that's right? But still -- let's hope Cummins and the boys aren't going for the minimalist approach. Destroy and conquer!

Quick correction, I'm sure it was just a typo. :D

[Carefree]

Quick correction, I'm sure it was just a typo. :D

Actually they won last night 2-0 (+2) and lost to us 0-1 (-1) so total GD is 2-1=1

[Lucky Strike]

Actually they won last night 2-0 (+2) and lost to us 0-1 (-1) so total GD is 2-1=1

Oh, the embarrassment!:svengo: How did I miss that?

[Inswingingwingman]

Given the posts here on the other subject, we go to Montreal, get to play on beautiful grass pitch that's perfect, and our players and fans will be so orgasmic that we will win 12-0 and then all we have to do is go smoke west coast grass and get out macaroni and cheese Mama, this tournament is OVER!

[Oldtimer]

Given the posts here on the other subject, we go to Montreal, get to play on beautiful grass pitch that's perfect, and our players and fans will be so orgasmic that we will win 12-0 and then all we have to do is go smoke west coast grass and get out macaroni and cheese Mama, this tournament is OVER!

We play Vancouver (June 2) before we play Montreal (June 18).

Vancouver and Montreal play again (May 27) before we play either game.

[Redpunkfiddle]

Oh, the embarrassment!:svengo: How did I miss that?

That was the same kind of mistake I corrected in the original post, so obviously it could happen to anyone...

[DaBandit]

Can anyone confirm this? According to the Montreal Gazette

"If two or all three sides are tied with the same number of points, the tiebreaker will be the greater number of goals scored in games among the teams."

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Impact+math+challenged/1613972/story.html

So goal differance may not even apply, if only two teams are tied.

cheers,

[Lucky Strike]

Can anyone confirm this? According to the Montreal Gazette

"If two or all three sides are tied with the same number of points, the tiebreaker will be the greater number of goals scored in games among the teams."

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Impact+math+challenged/1613972/story.html

So goal differance may not even apply, if only two teams are tied.

cheers,

I was going by the Wikipedia article and while yes, those aren't always accurate, there was no reason to doubt it.

Besides, to me the Gazette's article doesn't seem like a logical tiebreaker - there are better ones to apply before that one.

But I suppose anything is possible.

[DaBandit]

I agree, the Gazette article doesnt seem logical. But if it's true it would make a big difference. for example if TFC and Caps tie, you throw out TFC's goal and the Caps two goals against MTL.

Either way we shouldnt have to worry about tiebreakers if we go out and just win!!

[Redpunkfiddle]

Rogers Sportsnet tonight at 10:30pm for the Van-Mtl match.

[twistedchinaman]

New calculation!

VAN 2-0-1 = 6 (3F - 1A = +2)
TFC 2-0-0 = 6 (2F - 0A = +2)
MTL 0-0-3 = 6 (0F - 4A = -4)

Simple mantra, ladies and gentlemen:

BEAT THE SHITECRAPS!

[Ratven]

Yep. Nash is out against us too, and he looked like one of their most dangerous players.

[twistedchinaman]

Yep. Nash is out against us too, and he looked like one of their most dangerous players.

Whence one goes, another shalt replace. Gbeke looked bad tonight, but he could rise in place of Nash.

What is certain is we can't go into this game loosey goosey -- ding dong the Nash is gone, but another WILL rise. To take the Van game in lacksadasial so will be death on a stick.

[Azzurri86]

what is the first tie-breaker... if it is head-to-head a draw puts us through... but if its goal differential a draw leaves us work to do in Montreal.. does anybody know for sure what the tie-breaker is in a 2-team tie for the top position?

[Redpunkfiddle]

If we win next week, then the Mtl trip is a parade to Saputto stadium.

If we draw, we will need at least a draw in Mtl. A loss in the last game would leave us and Van with 7pts but we'd wind up with a lesser goal differential.

If we lose, then we need to win in Mtl, and make up the goal differential and goals scored.

If we lose by 1 goal (whatever the actual score- 1-0, 2-1, 3-2), then we need to win by 2 at least in Mtl to draw even on Goal dif and Goals scored. We'd have at least two away goals, so if we score in Vancouver we'd be through on away goals.

If we lose by 2 goals (again, whatever the actual scoreline), then we need to win by 4 goals at least in Mtl. If we manage that, then we'd have scored more goals than Vancouver and would be through.

I'll say it too :

BEAT THE SHITECRAPS!

[Oldtimer]

Beating the Caps is obviously the way to go, and the only reasonably certain way of winning the Voyageur's Cup.

If we win in Vancouver, then TFC can send the reserves to Montreal to have a good kick-around.

Nice thought though: after 7 years of Montreal holding the V-Cup, there is now zero chance that they can make it 8.

[Fort York Redcoat]

Beating the Caps is obviously the way to go, and the only reasonably certain way of winning the Voyageur's Cup.

If we win in Vancouver, then TFC can send the reserves to Montreal to have a good kick-around.

Nice thought though: after 7 years of Montreal holding the V-Cup, there is now zero chance that they can make it 8.

Le Roi et mort. Long live the King!-(banner?)

[denime]

Her is the Official tiebreaker rule:


All three teams will play four games - two at home and two on the road. There will be three points awarded for a win and one point awarded for a draw.
In case two teams are tied on points after four matches,
the winner will be decided first by goal differential,
then if necessary by most goals scored,
then if necessary by most away goals,
then if necessary by the drawing of lots.Canadian qualification for CONCACAF Champions League (http://www.canadasoccer.com/eng/media/viewArtical.asp?Press_ID=3107)

[daner90]

Is it selfsih of me to want a draw next week so those of us headed to Montreal will have a good match to watch?

[Fort York Redcoat]

Is it selfsih of me to want a draw next week so those of us headed to Montreal will have a good match to watch?

You're testing fate, Daner. Think of your blood pressure!

I want it to be a victory party from minute one.

:scarf:

[Oldtimer]

You're testing fate, Daner. Think of your blood pressure!

I want it to be a victory party from minute one.

:scarf:

Or, do you really want to be a missed sitter away from winning it all, again?

[Carefree]

Le Roi et mort. Long live the King!-(banner?)
Fan Fucking Tastic!!!

(...and I'm French Canadian :) )

[BuSaPuNk]

Or, do you really want to be a missed sitter away from winning it all, again?

That is true. I was hoping Montreal would win last night just to make the game in Montreal more exciting. Oh well. Nothing like a victory party, and seeing TFC lift the V-Cup in Montreal. :scarf::flare::drum:

[olegunnar]

Is it selfsih of me to want a draw next week so those of us headed to Montreal will have a good match to watch?

Think of it this way.
If the tourny is all sewn up after Tuesdays game, the Montreal game will be an opportunity to rub it in their faces for 90 minutes. We'll be 1st they'll be last no matter what happens on the field that night
:scarf::flare:

[Nuvinho]

IF, keyword is IF, it goes down to the last game.........will Montreal field its best XI, knowing that they have bigger worries about their place in USL.

[RealG-TFC]

Le Roi et mort. Long live the King!-(banner?)

Le Roi est mort.

[billyfly]

I watched a bunch of the game and I don't know if I was comparing it to the Champions League final but man was that horrible football.

[SoccMan]

You know what's horible is people who compare apples and oranges. Why would you watch the Montreal vs. Vancouver game and compare it to the Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United. Would you go to an East Coast Hockey League game and compare it to the NHL to game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs final series, just wondering, would you?

[Ratven]

I watched the whole game, didn't compare it to any football, and it was still horrible.

[billyfly]

^^Did I really offend you that much? In my opinion it was bad soccer and I made light that MAYBE I felt that way b/c I was sub-consciously comparing it to the earlier CL match. Calm down.

[graeme117]

I watched the whole game, didn't compare it to any football, and it was still horrible.

:lol: qft... just dreadful footie,

that said i was enthralled by the whole match, just because of what i means for us... and them... it was kind of like watching the league one playoffs

so basically the scenario is beat (but definitely don't loose to) Vancouver, and regardless of the result, rub even more salt in of Montreal's wounds a few weeks from now. Then start saving for a few fall trips to Mexico and the Caribbean

wow i love this tourney

[Carts]

It was bad football...

If I had one word to describe the game, Sloppy... Sloppy play led to possession changes, sloppy challenges led to cards...

One thing that was nice to watch though, was long balls to the corners actually stayed in play - they didn't do the "turf skip-and-run" into touch...

Carts...
Stay Thirsty My Friends...

[rocker]

it's best to just win next tuesday, and then Montreal becomes pointless.

cuz ya know if you leave it to the final game, we'll get some shit ref's call for a penalty against us, or Montreal will actually play hard for once, because they want to be spoilers.

Let's say "go for the 12 points" :)

[mighty_torontofc_2008]

You know what's horible is people who compare apples and oranges. Why would you watch the Montreal vs. Vancouver game and compare it to the Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United. Would you go to an East Coast Hockey League game and compare it to the NHL to game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs final series, just wondering, would you?


To some a national championship match is more important then a CL final with two teams they couldnt give a shit about? Minor league hockey is sometimes better then the stuf the NHL spews out nowadays.

[T_Mizz]

You know what's horible is people who compare apples and oranges. Why would you watch the Montreal vs. Vancouver game and compare it to the Champions League final between Barcelona and Manchester United. Would you go to an East Coast Hockey League game and compare it to the NHL to game 7 of the Stanley Cup playoffs final series, just wondering, would you?
To be fair its not really apples and oranges more like those beat-up half rotten crab-apples you find in your backyard and premium organic apples you'd buy at a fruit market.;)

[Stryker]

How fun would it be if we locked up the championship and then walked into Montreal and beat them with a team of bench players.

:smilielol5:

[Darlofletch]

To be fair its not really apples and oranges more like those beat-up half rotten crab-apples you find in your backyard and premium organic apples you'd buy at a fruit market.;)

eurosnob;)

[T_Mizz]

eurosnob;)
Not at all I just love apple comparisons:D

[Oldtimer]

How fun would it be if we locked up the championship and then walked into Montreal and beat them with a team of bench players.

:smilielol5:

I would love that. :scarf:

[Fort York Redcoat]

Le Roi est mort.

HAHAHA!!!

I knew that was gonna happen. I just keep reenforcing those anglophobic mono-lingual stereotypes. I'll make sure you're there before I put ANY french on a banner!:)

[Keystone FC]

Think of it this way.
If the tourny is all sewn up after Tuesdays game, the Montreal game will be an opportunity to rub it in their faces for 90 minutes. We'll be 1st they'll be last no matter what happens on the field that night
:scarf::flare:

We can chant:
Rendez-le! (Hand it over!) as we walk in.:D

[TFCinVANCOUVER]

HAHAHA!!!

I knew that was gonna happen. I just keep reenforcing those anglophobic mono-lingual stereotypes. I'll make sure you're there before I put ANY french on a banner!:)

mono-lingual stereotypes. THAT"S A BIG FUKKEN WORD!! lol

[twistedchinaman]

Is it selfsih of me to want a draw next week so those of us headed to Montreal will have a good match to watch?

Yes -- let's not tempt the fates and the Saputo surface. Win and we're in -- simple as that. GIT 'ER DONE!

[Gazza_55]

Her is the Official tiebreaker rule:

Canadian qualification for CONCACAF Champions League (http://www.canadasoccer.com/eng/media/viewArtical.asp?Press_ID=3107)

Why is Nigel Reed on the Fan590 saying that if TFC draws in Vancouver they win the Canadian Championship? Is there a new tiebreaker rule?

[rocker]

see today's news thread for a discussion on this

http://www.redpatchboys.ca/forums/showthread.php?t=13952

[117]

From the team website today...

"A draw in Tuesday's match would leave both teams on seven points, but TFC would be crowned champions because the first tiebreaker is the greater number of points in matches between the two teams. Toronto FC beat Vancouver 1-0 at BMO Field last month with an early goal from Kevin Harmse."

[rocker]

From the team website today...

"A draw in Tuesday's match would leave both teams on seven points, but TFC would be crowned champions because the first tiebreaker is the greater number of points in matches between the two teams. Toronto FC beat Vancouver 1-0 at BMO Field last month with an early goal from Kevin Harmse."

FINALLY!

[Carts]

FINALLY!

Agreed!

This seems to put the whole debate to bed...

Its just odd because it goes against the original tie-breakers on the concacaf site from last year - but I'll trust our team knows what they need...

Carts...

[Nazzer]

Also though, if Vancouver matches their home result from last week and beats TFC 2-0 then the Whitecaps would win the Voyageurs Cup right?

[Redpunkfiddle]

Also though, if Vancouver matches their home result from last week and beats TFC 2-0 then the Whitecaps would win the Voyageurs Cup right?

Right. Win or draw, the cup is ours. Lose by one goal, we need to beat Montreal by two.

Lose by two and we are done and I reconsider my support for gun laws.